We don’t need a 1b. We’ll need someone to step up, but with Miranda, Julien, and potentially others in the system, there are plenty of internal options that don’t require spending extra money. Sadly, I do think Willi is a casualty, but if they non-tender (instead of sign-and-trade one of the best utility players in MLB), you are dead right. The team deserves nothing but derision. Seriously looking forward to the new ‘zines, and highly recommend them to those who missed last year’s!
I can't see why there is any talk about non-tendering Willi. You clarified why it would be dumb with expected arb # VS fangraphs. I could see a package deal in a trade with Vasquez. To remove salary and I'd before that to get rid of Vasquez. Non-tender you get nothing for him!
Always nice to see a new video from Tom. Hard to be excited about the Twins- I was very anti-Correa bc I knew his contract would be the new Mauer contract to the cheap Pohlads. I want Willie to stay, but he needs to work on plate discipline in the off season. He has no eye for low pitches- as long as they go 58 feet, good enough for Castro to swing. Does a good job everywhere but CF, where he cost us a lot of runs when the glass princess was out.
I’d bet everyone expected the payrolls to be closer to $150 million than $130 million going forward when that contract was signed, even Correa himself.
I agree that NYY vs LAD is gonna be good for baseball, but I did have high hopes that one of the AL Central teams would take home a ring this year 😅 I just feel like our division doesn’t get enough recognition by the rest of baseball
Tom, if they get of Willie Castro, it’ll be 50% of the interest in the team for next year whether it’s positive for negative and we all know which way it’ll be if he’s gone. At minimum, this team needs an average starter and Willie to possibly contend.
That’s another thing, I still think they can contend. If I thought 2025 was hopeless, I’d maybe get moving on from some vets like Willi. As things stand, I just feel like he’s such a key piece of the puzzle and someone who helps me believe this team could bounce back.
IDK. Dude had a good first half but really tailed-off in the second. I don't really have a lot of answers, but I'm leaning toward just getting as much new blood as we can in here to stir the pot a bit.
One of my next ones will be a 40-man roster/Rule 5 Draft breakdown. Might do a deeper dive into salaries in that one or break it out into its own video.
Hard to do much of anything given that Correa contract. The Twins simply cannot afford to have a quarter of their extremely limited payroll locked up into one injury prone player. (Ditto to a lesser extent for Buxton.)
@@natbro11 Take a second and rethink that math. $48m for 7.6 WAR is TERRIBLE value. If you were to triple that, you'd be paying $144m for 22.8 WAR. That's significantly more than the Twins' current and projected payroll, and it would only get you to roughly 71 wins and 91 losses without even factoring in the salaries of the rest of your (presumably replacement level) team. I don't know where you got a $60m value for 7.6 WAR, but while maybe the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers can afford to pay for that kind of low-value output, the Twins will never be able to do that.
@@jroggs85 Uh... The assumption is that a significant portion of your war comes from cheaper team controlled players. 1 war usually costs 8-10 million on the free agent market.
Via Aaron Gleeman at The Athletic: “Multiple team sources with knowledge of the situation insist the Twins do not plan further payroll cuts for 2025 and that spending will remain around $130 million.”
Dude was one of the only reliable and actually good players throughout the entire season!
Bro was one of our most durable players. No way he gets cut. If he does, we riot.
Need to get something for him, I'd be mad if he didn't either keep him or trade him. Heck, we kept Kyle Farmer at about 6 million last year.
We don’t need a 1b. We’ll need someone to step up, but with Miranda, Julien, and potentially others in the system, there are plenty of internal options that don’t require spending extra money. Sadly, I do think Willi is a casualty, but if they non-tender (instead of sign-and-trade one of the best utility players in MLB), you are dead right. The team deserves nothing but derision.
Seriously looking forward to the new ‘zines, and highly recommend them to those who missed last year’s!
Thanks Patrick!
Castro’s value might never be higher. Great time to cash in
I can't see why there is any talk about non-tendering Willi. You clarified why it would be dumb with expected arb # VS fangraphs. I could see a package deal in a trade with Vasquez. To remove salary and I'd before that to get rid of Vasquez. Non-tender you get nothing for him!
Tough thing is I have a had time envisioning anyone taking that Vázquez salary off the Twins books.
Always nice to see a new video from Tom. Hard to be excited about the Twins- I was very anti-Correa bc I knew his contract would be the new Mauer contract to the cheap Pohlads. I want Willie to stay, but he needs to work on plate discipline in the off season. He has no eye for low pitches- as long as they go 58 feet, good enough for Castro to swing. Does a good job everywhere but CF, where he cost us a lot of runs when the glass princess was out.
I’d bet everyone expected the payrolls to be closer to $150 million than $130 million going forward when that contract was signed, even Correa himself.
How things change in a year. Tough to be a twins fan now but we were flying high at this time last year
I agree that NYY vs LAD is gonna be good for baseball, but I did have high hopes that one of the AL Central teams would take home a ring this year 😅 I just feel like our division doesn’t get enough recognition by the rest of baseball
Game 1 certainly delivered. Excited to see where they go from here.
Tom, if they get of Willie Castro, it’ll be 50% of the interest in the team for next year whether it’s positive for negative and we all know which way it’ll be if he’s gone. At minimum, this team needs an average starter and Willie to possibly contend.
That’s another thing, I still think they can contend. If I thought 2025 was hopeless, I’d maybe get moving on from some vets like Willi. As things stand, I just feel like he’s such a key piece of the puzzle and someone who helps me believe this team could bounce back.
I know I am biased. But I would be heartbroken if he goes.
IDK. Dude had a good first half but really tailed-off in the second. I don't really have a lot of answers, but I'm leaning toward just getting as much new blood as we can in here to stir the pot a bit.
You have to do a complete team breakdown of finances.
One of my next ones will be a 40-man roster/Rule 5 Draft breakdown. Might do a deeper dive into salaries in that one or break it out into its own video.
Hard to do much of anything given that Correa contract. The Twins simply cannot afford to have a quarter of their extremely limited payroll locked up into one injury prone player. (Ditto to a lesser extent for Buxton.)
They were literally the most valuable players on the team in 2024 combining for 7.6 bwar. That's >$60M in on field value for $48M in salary.
Buck is not overpaid imo
@@natbro11 Take a second and rethink that math. $48m for 7.6 WAR is TERRIBLE value. If you were to triple that, you'd be paying $144m for 22.8 WAR. That's significantly more than the Twins' current and projected payroll, and it would only get you to roughly 71 wins and 91 losses without even factoring in the salaries of the rest of your (presumably replacement level) team. I don't know where you got a $60m value for 7.6 WAR, but while maybe the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers can afford to pay for that kind of low-value output, the Twins will never be able to do that.
@@jroggs85 Uh... The assumption is that a significant portion of your war comes from cheaper team controlled players. 1 war usually costs 8-10 million on the free agent market.
If Willi leaves, then it confirms this front office doesn't know the stolen base exists.
🙏🙏🙏
Why is it assumed the payroll is dropping or staying the same?
What twins management said they said payroll won't decrease but it should be right around 150 MI as minimum
Via Aaron Gleeman at The Athletic: “Multiple team sources with knowledge of the situation insist the Twins do not plan further payroll cuts for 2025 and that spending will remain around $130 million.”
But margot amd farmer arent coming backmthat will dropit down 16 mill
But a lot of guys are getting raises. Pablo alone will eat nearly all of that savings. He’s making $13.5 million more next season.