I’ve learned quite a lot from you about meteorology as a whole. I feel confident in forecasting severe weather, especially tornadic conditions but failure modes and what causes an event to not perform as expected is something I still need to learn more about so these types of videos are always really appreciated. I learned a lot from the May 20th 2019 one. Thanks Trey!
Man I’m in the absolute same boat! I’ve learned so much and now I teach my brother and always let him or any of my family/friends know if they’re in any risk area what’s goin on. Love learning everything severe weather and this channel is a HAVEN for that ! 😊
Thank you guys! Underperformer events make for such interesting case studies, as studying the failure modes can sometimes be more useful than the successful cases.
Man if just one or two supercells were able to drill through that cap in Southern Mississippi we would have been talking a very different situation. That last proximity graph was crazy. Still very interesting how perfect things need to be.
Thanks for the breakdown Trey! I ended up on the main cell as it crossed through Jena and paralleled HWY 84 into the more open terrain west of Natchez. Was hoping this one would produce at least a brief tornado as the location and visibility were perfect for low damage/photogenicness. Maybe next time!
Yeah, I was hoping it would wait until the Delta to do something big, and I thought it was going to oblige after that merger, but it just couldn’t get it done.
Thank you for this! My hometown gets hit by a tornado and im not there, its nice to have someone go over all of the details. Supercells are pretty rare around there, tornadoes are unheard of. Also, ive never seen a supercell with such low precipitation produce a tornado
Have you seen the other video of the Arizona tornado? It’s much closer and shows the ground circulation. From the look of that video it seems the winds were stronger than a typical EF-1, it was just so small and may have not hit anything directly to justify a higher rating. That was an impressive, rare, and almost unpredictable event for AZ standards. Thanks for the video, reminds me of the typical cold core setups. I’ll keep these tricks in mind as I continue to try to find and chase an Arizona tornado.
If that had been further north, like the one in December 2021, probably would have been a different story, as the temperature differences would be greater.
In the area where the outbreak occurred, it can be much harder to see tornadoes when they form because of the forested areas, especially where I live in East Texas. We have two national forests within a 30-minute drive of my hometown. East Texas is known as the Pineywoods for a reason.
Amazing stuff Trey, cannot wait to dive into this one, especially what you think the failure mode was. (Predicting you'll say something about the lack of low-level shear). Haven't watched the whole thing yet, but if you didn't go into it, what do you think the sort of shortwave inhibition was for that really great looking supercell that passed near Colfax, LA? Looked like a classic dixie wedge but didn't really produce at all. Was rotation just never able to tighten up?
Thank you! Seems to me that the atmosphere may not have 100% fully destabilized by the time it started producing near Colfax, and also, it seemed like the RFD in that storm and many others were quite aggressive in surging outward, undercutting any circulations quickly. Perhaps had to do with the drier air aloft mixing into the downdrafts.
Excellent breakdown! The possible warm layer transported from southwest and/or the convective warming of the mid level that re-capped the atmosphere, is that something that the models didn’t pick up on? How do we predict such an occurrence?
Thank you! Oftentimes it’s hard to make things like that out on models. I don’t recall any of the soundings having that stout of a warm nose. Sometimes it just sneaks its way in without much advance notice. The 5-20-19 risk was the same…just a couple degrees too warm at 700mb made the difference.
@@ConvectiveChronicles it’s insane how delicate and complex the atmosphere is! Your analysis are second to none! Very interesting breakdown of the Arizona case as well. Didn’t know you were from there. Spent many vacations out there as I’m from San Diego myself. Glad I made the move to the southern plains. Best decision I ever made! Cheers my friend 🥂 always looking forward to the next video
Wouldn't 12z on November 19th be 5am in Arizona? Not trying to nit pick or anything, I'm just trying to memorize those conversions and was slightly throne off. The NWS chart says 12z mountain time outside of daylight savings is 5am, but I know Arizona doesn't do daylight savings so I'm not 100% sure how that works.
@@ConvectiveChronicles I'm sure! I have a hard time keeping up with Z/UTC to CST/CDT as it is! And yea it doesn't help that Arizona doesn't do the whole DST thing - only further complicates it all.
Probably not; I covered a lot of the potential failure modes of the setup in my forecast videos leading up to the event. Perhaps I’ll do a post or something on it.
Thank you trey! I am a mod for ryan hall yall and people were calling it a bust even after the strong tornado! And like you said it was far from a bust! And its not like we were expecting it to be like a super outbreak and it wasnt a high risk day or anything! Ryan and everyone else i know clearly said that we were expecting a few tornadoes, nothing huge
Yeah, it was certainly a high-ceiling event, but there were some pretty clear signals that that ceiling wasn’t going to be reached. But there were still a number of damaging tornadoes, so it was far from a bust.
SPC has been over-reacting to possible outbreaks the past little while. Can't blame them though, you just never know. Mother Nature holds all the cards.
I don't think they overreacted. I think that if that warm nose hadn't come in there was a high ceiling. Like trey said it could've been historic for this time of year if things aligned right
the most that we got here in my area in dallas was sporadic heavy rain and looooots of fog at night. it was exciting nonetheless! thank you for your breakdown trey! 🩷
I’ve learned quite a lot from you about meteorology as a whole. I feel confident in forecasting severe weather, especially tornadic conditions but failure modes and what causes an event to not perform as expected is something I still need to learn more about so these types of videos are always really appreciated. I learned a lot from the May 20th 2019 one. Thanks Trey!
Man I’m in the absolute same boat! I’ve learned so much and now I teach my brother and always let him or any of my family/friends know if they’re in any risk area what’s goin on. Love learning everything severe weather and this channel is a HAVEN for that ! 😊
Thank you guys! Underperformer events make for such interesting case studies, as studying the failure modes can sometimes be more useful than the successful cases.
Man if just one or two supercells were able to drill through that cap in Southern Mississippi we would have been talking a very different situation. That last proximity graph was crazy. Still very interesting how perfect things need to be.
Oh and wow! An hour video. Just realized. Let’s goooo lol.
Thanks for the breakdown Trey! I ended up on the main cell as it crossed through Jena and paralleled HWY 84 into the more open terrain west of Natchez. Was hoping this one would produce at least a brief tornado as the location and visibility were perfect for low damage/photogenicness. Maybe next time!
Yeah, I was hoping it would wait until the Delta to do something big, and I thought it was going to oblige after that merger, but it just couldn’t get it done.
Thank you for this! My hometown gets hit by a tornado and im not there, its nice to have someone go over all of the details. Supercells are pretty rare around there, tornadoes are unheard of. Also, ive never seen a supercell with such low precipitation produce a tornado
Have you seen the other video of the Arizona tornado? It’s much closer and shows the ground circulation. From the look of that video it seems the winds were stronger than a typical EF-1, it was just so small and may have not hit anything directly to justify a higher rating. That was an impressive, rare, and almost unpredictable event for AZ standards. Thanks for the video, reminds me of the typical cold core setups. I’ll keep these tricks in mind as I continue to try to find and chase an Arizona tornado.
Yeah, that other video was very impressive. Still in shock that something like that happened in AZ of all places!
If that had been further north, like the one in December 2021, probably would have been a different story, as the temperature differences would be greater.
In the area where the outbreak occurred, it can be much harder to see tornadoes when they form because of the forested areas, especially where I live in East Texas. We have two national forests within a 30-minute drive of my hometown. East Texas is known as the Pineywoods for a reason.
One of my least favorite areas to chase for that reason alone.
Amazing stuff Trey, cannot wait to dive into this one, especially what you think the failure mode was. (Predicting you'll say something about the lack of low-level shear). Haven't watched the whole thing yet, but if you didn't go into it, what do you think the sort of shortwave inhibition was for that really great looking supercell that passed near Colfax, LA? Looked like a classic dixie wedge but didn't really produce at all. Was rotation just never able to tighten up?
Thank you! Seems to me that the atmosphere may not have 100% fully destabilized by the time it started producing near Colfax, and also, it seemed like the RFD in that storm and many others were quite aggressive in surging outward, undercutting any circulations quickly. Perhaps had to do with the drier air aloft mixing into the downdrafts.
Absolutely fantastic video. You can tell someone truly knows their stuff when you make such a complex scenario so understandable 🔥🔥🔥🌪️🌪️🌪️
Thank you so much!
Excellent breakdown! The possible warm layer transported from southwest and/or the convective warming of the mid level that re-capped the atmosphere, is that something that the models didn’t pick up on? How do we predict such an occurrence?
Thank you! Oftentimes it’s hard to make things like that out on models. I don’t recall any of the soundings having that stout of a warm nose. Sometimes it just sneaks its way in without much advance notice. The 5-20-19 risk was the same…just a couple degrees too warm at 700mb made the difference.
@@ConvectiveChronicles it’s insane how delicate and complex the atmosphere is! Your analysis are second to none! Very interesting breakdown of the Arizona case as well. Didn’t know you were from there. Spent many vacations out there as I’m from San Diego myself. Glad I made the move to the southern plains. Best decision I ever made! Cheers my friend 🥂 always looking forward to the next video
Wouldn't 12z on November 19th be 5am in Arizona? Not trying to nit pick or anything, I'm just trying to memorize those conversions and was slightly throne off. The NWS chart says 12z mountain time outside of daylight savings is 5am, but I know Arizona doesn't do daylight savings so I'm not 100% sure how that works.
You’re correct, thanks. It’s hard to keep the multiple time zones together when bouncing from event to event
@@ConvectiveChronicles I'm sure! I have a hard time keeping up with Z/UTC to CST/CDT as it is! And yea it doesn't help that Arizona doesn't do the whole DST thing - only further complicates it all.
I saw the thumbnail and briefly the title and thought this was about yesterday’s enhanced risk lol. Would you think about covering that in the future?
Probably not; I covered a lot of the potential failure modes of the setup in my forecast videos leading up to the event. Perhaps I’ll do a post or something on it.
Thank you trey! I am a mod for ryan hall yall and people were calling it a bust even after the strong tornado! And like you said it was far from a bust! And its not like we were expecting it to be like a super outbreak and it wasnt a high risk day or anything! Ryan and everyone else i know clearly said that we were expecting a few tornadoes, nothing huge
People call too many severe weather events and NFL players "busts"
@@hotdog9423 yeah for real!
Yeah, it was certainly a high-ceiling event, but there were some pretty clear signals that that ceiling wasn’t going to be reached. But there were still a number of damaging tornadoes, so it was far from a bust.
@@ConvectiveChronicles yes for sure!
As soon as i saw this video i instantly clicked on ot its the question all of us weather fans have wanted to know
Yay I got a heart
Same story all spring and summer.
SPC has been over-reacting to possible outbreaks the past little while. Can't blame them though, you just never know. Mother Nature holds all the cards.
I don't think they overreacted. I think that if that warm nose hadn't come in there was a high ceiling. Like trey said it could've been historic for this time of year if things aligned right
Better to be safe than sorry.
Yeah, I’m not sure if it was an overreaction, as the ceiling was quite high. I think the Enhanced Risk was just right.
the most that we got here in my area in dallas was sporadic heavy rain and looooots of fog at night. it was exciting nonetheless! thank you for your breakdown trey! 🩷
Thank you for watching! I love some good nighttime fog, as long as I don’t have to travel in it!