What Ever Happened To Rivian?
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- Опубліковано 9 чер 2024
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Rivian went public in 2021 at a valuation of almost $100 billion. Since then the stock price has fallen by almost 90%. While the company has ramped up production significantly, they are still losing about $30,000 per car and have negative contribution margins. In this video we analyze Rivian's recent performance and determine whether the company has any chance of becoming the next Tesla.
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0:00 - 2:05 Intro
2:06 - 10:48 Rivian
10:49 Tesla comparison - Фільми й анімація
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Your affiliate stinks. Soon, you'll be the news ;)
Having learned how to spot a shady deal thanks to your videos, yeah, 5.1%? Nah mate, you should shut up about promoting these scams and just open a fucking Patreon if you need money.
@@KiuhKoboldlmaooo
@@KiuhKobold I don't think you have a very good understanding of what current high yield savings accounts are offering right now given higher interest rates over the last year put in place by the FED to curb inflation. I literally just went to google and typed in best high yield savings accounts rates and there are tons of options that offer rates above 5%. You are talking out of your ass lmao.
errrm ... with respect ... your post looks like financial spam. Can I report it?
Its funny these channels expose financial fraud and then get sponsored ads of obvious financial fraud😂😂😂
my favourite is the artworks one, lol
Almost every time, ik. Or a channel on financial responsibility - brought to you by masterworks.
@@Harry._.Thompsonmy favourite was the Scotland land / property / lordship investment one
It is because UA-cam does not let content creators to profit from ads. So that forces creators to accept shady sponsorships
Is Public a fraud?
Who'd have guessed the average person doesn't have 80k to spend on a car?
This is what happens when you only hire Ivy League MBAs for your company. You have literally no idea what a normal person can afford.
Remember that survey of Wharton students that thought the average American salary was $100k?
I wouldn’t have ever thought that the avg car price would be 40k this soon, we may be nearing 80k avg car price in a decade 😢
It's a car brought up by "You will own nothing" philosophy. Once the car ownership is a thing of a past, low scale production of expensive luxury EVs can be profitable.
I will sound like conspiracy bozo, but fk it. I believe it was always the plan. When the EU and US governments started blindly pushing EVs down everyone's throat, they knew that an affordable EV is a myth. An expensive, luxurious EVs for select few is a proven concept though.
For the normies and rest of us, they will push universal income and remote work from a company-owned pod. No car for you, my friend. Ride a bicycle to get places and eat some generic microwaveable bug meal automatically restocked for you.
@@aldomeow this is exactly why I bought a bike and am learning how to repair/maintain it. I own a car, but I'm only using it for when walking/biking is impractical or unsafe. I don't want to depreciate it quickly.
"We're losing money on every sale!!!"
"Don't worry, we'll make it up in volume."
😂
Reminds me of that scene from Wall Street about making profits from losses!😂
Technically that is how it works eventually. Along with cost cutting. Most of that loss is in r&d.
volume reduces the fixed cost per
Unit sales should be higher than variable cost. Otherwise, you don't have a business at any scale.
A zero emission vehicle but what about the fumes from all that cash being incinerated?
I mean $80-92K burning up would probably cause a decent amount of emissions. You’re probably right!
EVs are one of the most environmentally damaging (mining lithium) products currently produced by man. Thats without mentioning that 95% of the electricity consumed by EVs is from COAL fired electric generation. Currently there are extremely few options to recycling or exposing lithium batteries.
What about the smooth patch a guy is left with in the groin area after buying one?
Lol😅😅😂
💯👍🏼
The price for the EDV has been available on their website for a few months now. The Delivery 500 starts at $83,000 and Delivery 700 at $87,000.
Well, we all know that means more and more losses incurred on Rivian. With each sales of Rivian they lose $30k so the more they deliver the more they're stabbing themselves in the heart. Good luck
Ford starts at 46k for their eTransit.
Litterslly. 2 vans for the price of one EDV and rivian loses money selling them!!! Hahahaha.......
@@josephlinehan2281if you’ve seen what the EDV is and what it can do, you cannot compare it to the etransit. It is perfectly optimised for amazon delivery. However, the price still shouldn’t be that much higher and it’s still catastrophic that they are losing money selling them
@@rova3308 that’s not how fixed costs work… but sure.
You didn’t mention the $40,000 dent repair
That’s of no consequence, as long as they aren’t repairing it under warranty.
Yeah I don’t think they understood what the video was about. Dent repair is completely irrelevant. When would a car company be responsible under warranty for a customer denting their car
That's kind of irrelevant in this video, they talking about operations and profitability.
I don't know how often you have to replace the batteries but that can't be cheap either.
So you think being forced to pay 10x for repair/insurance isn't relevant for why regular people do not want to buy the car Rivian sells?
$92,000 for a car that is completely depreciated, and worthless, at 6 or 7 years. Madness.
Its completely depreciated in 6 months... the 2nd hand electric car market is terrible you'd be lucky to get 1/6 of what you paid
@@BillClinton228Yeah that’s wrong. I just looked KBB, Craigslist, and eBay for Rivian and the Lightning and they’re keeping their value well.
Not even 6 years. Depreciating %50 by year 3.
How many clueless morons really watch this channel? For the first two years of ownership I could have sold my Model Y for a profit. After four years of ownership it’s retained 80% of its value. That beats the industry average by a decent margin.
My Rivian was $75k a year ago and the used market would price it around 68-69k. Again, that’s on par or better than the industry average.
@@ShinkuGoukiit depreciates by 50% immediately
The problem is the insane cost of body work, Small damage can cost $20-50k. Even tesla is bad but not this bad.
Insurance must be insane.
I wonder why?
Are the bodies made from exotic metals?
@@RUHappyATM parts are impossible to get plus aluminum is every hard to work with.
@@RUHappyATM The whole body is made up of just a few panels. So, replacing a dent in the tail light area means the whole bed is being swapped out.
@@NOLA-vv3sz W-.... Why would they design a vehicle like that ? This sounds insane.
that takes skill to lose $30k on every car you sell. There are tons of cars out there whos MSRP is under $30k
Not in the US 😂
Are you planning on doing a video on 23andMe? They went from being a $6 billion company in 2021 to its stock at risk of being delisted due to dropping under $1 per share.
That sounds exactly like Lucid
Who'd be dumb enough to send their entire families DNA info to an FBI honeypot operation in 2024
@@mahartmaCo-owned by a Chinese company that would gladly hand their info to the CCP
SBF, hold my beer.
@@Entertainment- you can say the same for all the American companies. The U.S. government can force all American companies to cooperate. Don't believe the American propaganda.
I noticed one thing that might not be correct in the video. When you searched for a vehicle and it showed available delivery in 1-2 weeks that is for 'available configurations' which are for those finished vehicles sitting around. Customers can cancel their order or change their configuration, which leaves a vehicle sitting. If you were to customize your spec for a vehicle to exactly what you want, the wait for R1T is a couple of months and still much longer for an R1S. Most customers at this price point are likely waiting for exactly what they want. I ordered 11/21 and received my R1T 12/22
Sorry to hear your Rivian got delivered.
Bradley, let me hold $40,067.31
A friend of mine bought a factory order BMW a couple of decades back. Cubby enough, between waiting for it to be built, plus the time to ship it (by ship) from Germany to San Diego was about 3 months. So, to the Rivian CEO, "Waaahhhhhh!!!"
@@briant7265ooh, a couple decades now, how relevant!
Hopefully you won’t be trying to sell your Rivian anytime soon, the negative press is going to scare away potential buyers.
I work in automotive tech and have partnered with Rivian previously on some of their tech like Gear Guard. Tbh…they spend so much on engineering things like these that has low roi that I always wondered are they selling enough units to keep spending money like that.
What is gear guard? Unfortunately your comment doesn't mean anything to me because I don't know what gear guard is.
@@richardconway6425 It's their security system. Took me 2 seconds to google...
@@richardconway6425I think that was @tirosc ‘s point.
If Rivian is spending large amounts of money on engineering things their customer base (I.e. the public) hasn’t even heard of, then those things are unlikely to have high return on investment.
So you not knowing what Gear Guard is reflects that Rivian has invested in something they haven’t successfully communicated to the public, thus that investment isn’t great at motivating new buyers.
@@richardconway6425you’re here on the internet. Maybe, use it?
Get educated@@richardconway6425
Saw the delivery van on the road yesterday, didn’t know it was made by rivian
Cool story any more? Says Rivian in big letters on the back.
@lurekayaklrf the van doesn't poophead
Amazon deal was a huge bump up for rivian
I've seen them. It figures since the headlights also make them look like toys
Those vans handle really well
I live like half an hour's drive away from one of Rivian's corporate offices. I don't think I've ever seen a car pull in or out of that office block.
so what?
so? they work remote, wake up dude dont remain inthe past:) the future its remote! !!!!
Do you know this for a fact or just assume this is so and present an unfounded opinion as a fact?@@havencat9337
So they’re likely wasting money on offices that they’re stuck in a long lease for. And raising corporate overhead. Bad decision, and nearly impossible to get out of even with good lawyers
Offices are not gonna bankrupt them, but selling the cars below their cost might
I'm sure their management is under a lot of pressure to reduce cost
Considering how long it took Tesla to turn a profit off just cars and not carbon credits… Rivian isn’t doing too badly.
Problem with Rivian is they need volume to be profitable but market is increasingly crowded for EV SUVs and pickups and demand is coming down back to earth. They losing bill per quarter and I won’t be surprised if they get out of consumer segment all together and focus on large trucks for companies like Amazon.
You should watch the video. They don’t make any gross margin profit per car so building more cars just makes them lose more money.
@@MegaJuniorJones😂 💯
I wouldn't be surprised if they go under with your sagely advice.
Literally one other EV on the market
I can only wonder why no is buying them… the 80k vehicles with no cheaper options
The locals in Georgia gave them a tough time so the factory only recently broke ground. There won't be any R2's onsale for a couple years.
Will they even be around in two years though?
@@qwerty112311lmaooo I was just about the mention the exact same thing 😂
by next year the cost of lithium batteries on the market may drop in half.
those prices for Rivian and Tesla better come down by a lot.
Junk junk junk
@@qwerty112311they're not going anywhere those electric vans will keep them afloat if anything
I asked this tech presenter once about how she determines the value of her startup. I’m still waiting for that answer, over 5 years later. These valuations are ridiculous.
raw material costs DO NOT increase linearly with volume!!! The bigger a customer you are, the more leverage you have to get better deals. The rewards for buying in bulk can be much greater for an industrial customer than for a consumer because the industrial customer can buy enough to increase the scale of their supplier. The supplier _really_ wants that and can negotiate for it by using their own future price savings to lower the present price.
On top of that, if you budget to buy 10x as much of a material, that might open the door to buying your supplier instead.
Labor and electricity costs increase linearly with volume purchased, but I don't know what else does. Probably not much.
Not necessarily true. If you are already established, you can lock in to very long term and very well priced material contracts. If you’re not big and are basically buying at spot, you can get sodomized big time as production ramps and you need more materials, but not enough to curry favor with big suppliers.
Labor doesn't increase linearly. Monopolistic employers can depress wages by decreasing competition for labor. That's why antitrust legislation is vital.
@@user-vo9wd6tx6c Also, once production is high enough, it may make sense to bring in robots to do some of the work which will reduce labor costs.
The capital outlay for robots does not make sense below a certain threshold of production, but as production scales up it can greatly reduce labor costs. Tesla Model S's initial very low volume of production was built almost entirely by human labor, but Model Y, the best-selling car in the world, is mostly built by robot labor which is much cheaper per unit.
For raw materials yes but doesn’t apply to labour. And that raw materials discount from economies of scale isn’t going to be that drastic of a price reduction.
I hate to break it to you but you just stumbled upon the fact that the people running this YT channel have no real business work experience at all and all of their insights come from college education... They're not business analysts. They're YTers cosplaying as business analysts.
If I buy an R2 do I get a D2 for free?
This is The Way
Yeah, you're right on the money. Elon said getting to cash flow positive was excruciatingly difficult, and that was with positive gross margins. I don't see what chance Rivian has
He also borrowed during 2018, when he was on life support, from spacex or something. It's truly amazing they survived. Now, with every automaker building in a market that needs to drop prices by 50%, good luck.
Hop off elons top
@@Epsteindidinfactkillhimself like it or not, there is no one else outside of China that's cash flow positive with ev's, so yes, I'm going to listen to what elon is saying regarding this.
@@WeyermannX all I hear is gawk gawk
@@WeyermannX Listening to Elon was your first mistake. Elon is basically a mascot, he doesn't actually crunch the numbers himself, he hires people to do it for him and then takes the credit.
I hope rivian does not fail. They seem like a decent company; I believe they can bring real competition to Tesla. Competition is GOOD people!
Rivian SUVs are showing up in my neighborhood lately. People seem to love them.
For $80K to %100K+ they should be OK cars.😄
What some people can learn to "love" after they have been ripped off and know it would bring tears to your eyes. Caveat emptor as they used to say in ancient Rome.
You must live in a nice neighborhood.
Yea living in LA or San Fran I’ve seen a lot too.
I'm in Miami and they're all over the place.
I go to a number of auto auctions in Florida and there are some where there are rows of rivians that have been there for months not being sold, moved or scrapped. They’re not even attempting to sell them, makes little sense to me
Two people at my kid's daycare have Rivian trucks, and we live in one of the poorest areas of the US. Just passed the plant in KY the other day too. Small world
That’s inheritance money. Don’t be fooled
@@SOLOSOLOSOLOSOLOSOLOSOLO It's the bank's money. It's a loan. Banks are more than happy to make money off any idiot with a job and decent credit score.
Passed the plant in KY? RIVIAN PLANT? It's in Illinois.
@@denniseft6460 youre right, I recall that from the video now. Not sure what the place was for, but it's huge and had Rivian on the side. Maybe a battery facility.
@@denniseft6460there is a remanufacturing plant in Kentucky
Rivians are extremely popular in my state and owners LOVE them. Hope the company survives.
people can love them but...18 bilion for 100k cars doesnt make financial sense.... sorry but business its business
Everyone loses money when they start.
What is this world coming to?a 100k vehicle is popular in your state? Wow!
@@hunterl4328That's not true. 12 Billion!!. My as well have just started a different business.
They burned through $10.2 billion making less than 100k vehicles. 1*10^10/1*10^5=10^5. That is the loss per vehicle to date. Now much of that is infrastructure (factory, charging, R&D for design). So a much worse loss than $30k per vehicle.
Neat, but I will not buy a vehicle before 200,000 are on the road in the USA. Will Rivian survive that long?
We should also talk about the lack of repairability and service. Based in Minnesota, my wife’s boss’ Rivian R1S got cold in the subzero temps at night and now the battery is inoperable. No timeline or cost associated with fixing the issue. She now owns a $90,000 paperweight. Rivian will go to zero.
If that's true then that's sad. That sounds like a really bad flaw in their battery technology. But, having said that, isn't it a good idea to keep your electric vehicle plugged in at night, in extremely cold temperatures, so that the battery temperature can be 'managed'?
Telling fake stories fun?
Norway's car sales are now 80% EVs. Top countries for EVs are Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, Iceland.
Apparently EVs can handle extreme cold, if you know what you're doing, or they would not keep growing in those places.
And they buy almost all Teslas, so there's that.
@@3DThrills having skepticism with his statement as well. No way in hell car companies havent thought about this issue before selling. There has to be more to the story.
@@3DThrills Also, the consumer is smarter about temps there. I remember when diesel cars would not start at below freezing temps. Everyone had a block heater so the vehicle could be driven the next day. Now, they don't.
I don’t know who can afford $100,000 cars not in this current economy
Trump 2024!!
Even in a great economy 100 k is steep.
Not anybody I currently know.
we’re in this economy situation because people have TOO MUCH money to spend and not enough resources. So which one is it? Too much money or not enough poor people?
I easily can. But I want reliability. I originally wanted a Tesla but the build quality made me skip it. Then Elon went crazy and I felt very justified.
Software development pays nicely.
If they are losing money on every new car they sell how much is the customer losing when purchasing a vehicle.
How much did your car cost? You lose that much, it's a vehicle, not a savings account.
The problem with many electric cars designs is that they are packed with tech, which costs money and are often unwanted or needed. This is often the same iot shit that’s been foisted on us by silicon VCs and investors for a decade now. They went from propping up failing software and tech products to give us failing car companies. jucero on wheels.
And the phone and macbook review bros on youtube ate it all up and said it’s the best thing ever. Because daddy Elon wasn’t popular anymore they needed a new tech product (and they see it as a tech product not a car) to love and promote.
@@MotiejusImpolevicius, have an R1S and have to say it's a god tier vehicle with amazing tech. Leave it to rednecks in their trailers to not understand the future and be clinging to their lifted rusted out diesel trucks .
jucero on wheels is wild
At the 13:00 minute mark - you are comparing Tesla 3/Y vehicles with Rivians most expensive vehicles. For a fairer comparison it should be Model S/X ramps with Rivian's current vehicle ramps.
This channel is only fearmongering and complete bs. Dudes just complaining a 3 row fully electric SUV is too expensive. It’s closest competitor, the Model X was around 130k when it first came out. Now it costs 80k.
Incredibly high quality analysis! Awesome stuff WSM
As a Rivian owner I absolutely love the vehicle. One reason they have been losing cash was that they honored the original vehicle price for buyer who had a reservation prior to the price hike of 3/21. I waited 21 months for my R1S and only paid 72k after rebate for a vehilce that now retails for 100k. The pre price hike reservation holders have mostly recevied their vehicles so new buyers will be required to pay the current prices. They have also just recently offered leases which many buyers desire. Also the R2 which is set to debut in March will be a huge volume seller. 100k vehilces are a much smaller niche for any manufacturer.
How much were you paid for this stream of bullshit?
Very cool excuse, but how does that change anything when the cost of the vehicle is still greater than or very close to the new selling prices?
Yep . Ignore the haters and enjoy your adventure .
@@darkjudge8786 I'd guess more than chipotle pays you.
Sucker 😂😂😂😂😂
the unfortunate thing is that selling something at a loss doesn't always mean you're getting your money's worth. despite the loss, the product isn't undervalued. they've just done an awful job at staying on top of their costs.
35-40k is tops. That is the number you need to hit to bring in normal people. Even then, that would be the top of the MSRP if they want to sell large numbers.
The bottle neck is Not the delivery time from factory to destination. The problem is the fact that People DON'T WANT THEM FOR ANY NUMBER OF REASONS: Price, Range, Charging, Cost of insurance and repair, Depreciation. If you can't sell what you produce then failure is right around the corner!
There is plenty of demand. Rivian sold more vehicles than Ford sold Mustangs (the real ones) last year. Rivian's problem is they are losing money hand over fist.
@@Rocketsong That will kill them just as quick, by the way did you know that Ford owned a chunk of Rivian although I have hear that they may have sold it off; apparently two losers is too much. LOL
@@Rocketsong "Mustang to EV Truck/SUV" that is an apples to oranges comparison if I've ever seen one....
@@Rocketsonglol literally no
You nailed it, these companies are so far out of touch its hilarious when they fail
Wait how much interest? I couldn’t quite catch what he said
Will you be able to reduce cost by buying the components / raw material in bigger bulk as you ramp up, and so cost oer vehicle goes down as you ramp up?
Yes however they have OEM backing by Ford. Could be their already tapping their purchasing power.
In the Pacific Northwest, there's a ton of RTs, and RSs
Yep. I see them occasionally in Oregon.
EV’s are on life support…
Medic! lmao
Best selling car in the world is an EV. You’re confused.
@@heyramineniCitations needed.
@@heyramineni pretty sure that distinction belongs to the Volkswagen Beetle. An EV car has sold more than 21 million copies?
Oh wow! I just saw one of these tonight. I wondered what it was since it was dark, but those lights are distinct
Just logged 25,000 miles on my Rivian. Loooooooooove it!
That's not a whole lot of miles. Let us know what happens at 125,000 ok?👀
Sadly that's not the point. Everybody loves them, they are obviously good cars. But if as a company you spend more money then you earn on that scale, the math is done quickly ...
@@emmapeel8163 You might be right ...
Let’s see if you feel the same way after you have to repair it.
@@xkidmidnightx Already have. Still happy.
Depends on where you live. I see several of them around town.
can you make a video about lucid motors?
Great Video. I have a Friend that works for Rivian, he's headed to the next plant to help get production started, after this video, it's going to a challenging assignment, I wish him Luck, he's a Great Guy.
Just curious about the profitability of their original factory. If you compare to Tesla, they were profitable in their original factory in Fremont before expanding in the US.
@@bogususer2595Tesla is skewed as they had fairly large government grants and incentives and were making money off other car makers with there green credits
I had a friend who got layed off from Rivian. It was right after Elon warned Rivian about labor costs. I guess my friend who was working as a software engineer was considered part of the fat to be trimmed.
That Sucks !!!, regardless whether White Colar or Blue Collar, to the top, we're just there to make them rich after the IPO.@@zgdafzgdaf4264
Has he mentioned anything about the delays in getting the plant built?
Honestly that's great for Rivian. They got a lot of money and they can just buy back their shares cheap
I'm really curious what "fixed costs" even look like for something like an auto factory, apart from the literal cost of the building (mortgage or lease).
Everything other cost I can think of scales, if not linearly, at least _together_ with production: power usage, machine maintenance and replacement, labour, etc.
If "fixed costs" are the expenses you have on Day 1 of doors-open, that's basically the building itself, machines, and some number of workers. So where does $300m come from, and will that number also increase as production ramps up?
The only EV I ever really wanted was Rivian. Still cool
Stupid vertical feature. Shade of Edsel.
Same here, unfortunately if they don't make a profit soon, they'll go bankrupt. I feel like Tesla will buy them off after that and we will have no competition.
I really enjoy my R1T. It is a much better vehicle than my Model 3 Performance. Try to get a test drive sometime.
I love Rivian but selling below cost of goods sold is very rough. Idk how they can survive without making massive cuts and losing bloat
I like our diesel powered VW Amarok… No huge holes in the ground to mine enough lithium for one battery which becomes toxic landfill once the battery has expired. Replacement cost of a battery? Anyone know?
That's the cost they don't want you to know.
Battery probably costs about 40% of the cost of the vehicle
, do we have a breakdown on which vehicles are piling up maybe at the r1t and r1s are still low production vehicles on the delivery van is selling like gangbusters
👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾 excellent analysis. It sucks that they can't seem to make these profitably the end product is pretty nice.
Agreed. Both Rivian and Lucid have what appear to be very nice products and it would be a shame if they fail. I know it would never happen but it makes me wonder what if they somehow merged and we're able to cut their corporate overhead in half? It wouldn't speak to the ramp up issues but there would have to be some synergies there. And Peter Rollinson would need to get a pay for performance package rather than the lotto win he gets every year.
I’d rather have a Rivian than a cybertruck
Why?
@@Abebe345probably cause it's not hideous
Based on looks, the Cybertruck looks like a 3 year old Drew it.
I’d rather have the $100K.
That's a low bar. Like saying you'd rather have a 2003 Hondo Accord instead of an even more beatup 1991 Ford Taurus.
The graph shows that the cost of production leveling off at over $100,000. Furthermore, even if they could make a small profit, it would not pay off the initial $billions invested! Sure, they can cheapen the product but then the selling cost should go down because of the lessening of its quality and value; so it's a dog chasing its tail. They have gone to LiFeP which is cheaper but has less storage capacity, so the battery pack must be larger and heavier which will increase the WH/mile and diminish good handling and range. Cheapening has a cascade effect. The bottom line is that this product can't compete in the car/truck market - ie. it is not a viable product.
even a competitive company wont buy this company if it go for sale
Finally, the short-sighted trend of selling increasingly expensive products while keeping wages stagnant is catching up with greedy corporations. All their fancy new toys are just gonna end up decorating their parking lots and warehouses.
It's sad how much income inequality has worsened since the 60s. The more I look into the numbers, the sadder I get. The dream of home ownership and the nuclear family led by blue collar workers is dead.
Greed is one ugly son of a bitch.
@@kevinthekrazy1320 The cars were designed to be that expensive. You could build a glorified gokart and sell it for 5 grand, but that wouldn't pull in $20bn in VC
@@sciencoking ^^This
Because their idiot loss based production scheme means low pay for workers who will probably end up unemployed. @@kevinthekrazy1320
Lol 😂😂😂😂
After hearing the CEO nervously stumble the most basic economic question, the company is a house of cards.
Standard pack isn't out yet but will be available this year in 2024. Dual Motor and Performance dual motor is available now but you won't find many where you are looking in inventory online because this motor configuration is relatively new and very popular so almost all the ones being built are already claimed by customers who already placed a deposit. Put another way, Rivian's demand for dual motor variants is still greater than supply. This will alleviate as Rivian continues to ramp production to their 150k/year production numbers that the Normal, IL factory is capable of.
Henry Ford made a successful company on high volume output and affordability for the average person. Have we not learned anything?
Child slaves
I am surprised about how many Rivians I see when driving around town. Most every time I go for a ride. They are easy to spot because of their goofy lights and front end.
very good analysis
They're really popular where I live in Southwest Colorado near Durango. I drive around for work all day and see them everywhere.
Rivian is doing just fine at this stage. They have more work to do but they’ve exceeded their overall targets this year.
Rivian is only doing fine if you think they are on pace to dominate the heavy duty EV segment of the market. They need the volume and investment to bargain down their suppliers to start actually making money on each truck sold. I don't see that happening without government policies punishing the purchase of gas trucks/SUVs, and US automakers completely failing to pivot.
At 8:20 when the CEO blamed geography for his company losing name, that just sounded really suspicious to me, Chicago,Detroit, Milwaukee,Cleveland , St. Louis, Nashville, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Kansas Cityare all within an couple hours drive.
There's no rich customers or large businesses in all these mega cities nearby to sell to?
"
that inserts many weeks of time
"
Really? How long does it take to get a car from the middle of Illinois to NYC or LA? Cna't be much more than 5-10 days.
Great research. Well done.
I know this is not going to be a popular statement but, some companies should not go public.
No they should, since that forces them to disclose their finances. Transparency can only be good.
True. But Rivian is the least fraud looking ev company behind tesla in 🇺🇸. Others are way worse.
Doesn't matter....
Public or Private,
You can still have poor money management and burn through your cash reserves
They should not have been allowed to go public by the SEC and the public stock exchanges. The pre-IPO ( or SPAC) investors probably wanted to cash-out when they realized the party was over, and let the public take the loss with a pump-and-dump IPO ( or SPAC). Going public does allow the company to sell more shares to obtain cash to continue operations; however, that dilutes existing holders and delays the inevitable demise of a zombie company. I really felt Rivian had a chance, but executive management has done a terrible job growing the revenue and getting close to profitability, and it has succeeded in offending its potential customer base.
@@marcdunivan2436 thank you for that statement. P.s. guys got to know snake oil when you see snake oil.
There's got to be something more to the story. How does a company lose so much money on these expensive cars when the margins are supposed to be higher on these cars over mass market cars.
High build quality and low production volumes. Things can get very expensive really fast that way. But they can't cut build quality when it's their main selling point.
The problem these days is that it just isn't that difficult to produce a super fancy electric car. The hard part is breaking into mass market from scratch and producing good value vehicles, because there just isn't that much money in selling 50 hand crafted luxury cars per year, even at ludicrous profit margins per unit. You'll need ludicrous amounts of investor money to skip the entire growth stage and jump straight to large volume production just to stand a small chance at eventually selling a good value car at a profit, after all the inevitable kinks have been ironed out.
When Tesla got into proper mass production the market was starving for an EV that wasn't a bit shit. It just wasn't that hard to stand out when most legacy automakers weren't even trying. But now you can't become the next Tesla by following the same strategy. There's too many good options on the market.
Easy they aren't charging what it costs to produce. So they lose $30k on each vehicle sold and are hoping to make it up in volume. It's literally the funniest business joke ever! Same thing with Ford they lose about $30k per lightning and was hoping that eventually costs will come down. They at least have a cash cow in their f150 to prop them up but they saw the writing on the wall and cut their production in half. There are still plenty of new 23 lightnings on the lot as the dealers can't sell them. The majority of people don't want EVs so the EV makers are fighting for a limited customer base. PHEV is the way forward for at least the next 10 years.
this 30,000 per car includes the cost of the factory. The are still losing on variable costs only (not on vans though) but not that much
Ford loses 49,000 on each f 150 lightning
Theyre always gonna be selling at a loss when theyre a new company. The cost per unit will decrease to a break even point but it will take years. They need to reach that amortisation point. Then they will start makng money
Rivian will thrive and be around for decades to come. ❤
Tesla and Rivian are not the same company operating in the same market. Tesla had a completely unsaturated market of people eager to buy their first EV. Now the market is saturated and sentiment towards EV’s is growing negative. There are fewer new buyers to fill the gap in Rivian’s earnings.
You missed a large initiative the companies taking in 2024 to achieve positive gross margin on R1. They’re rolling out a full rework of the vehicles internal ECU architecture in a few months, which should reduce fixed costs by quite a bit, pushing each car closer to positive margins
hey, could u do a video on war stocks?
SBF would be good also...
@@MrGamman3yt sick of hearing about that guy
Defense contractors like GD and Raytheon, etc? Yeah, they've done alright, but people that act like those companies run the world or something greatly exaggerate. Big Tech darlings like Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, etc have as much cash flow in a month or even week as most prime defense & aviation contractor companies have in an entire year.
@@Anonymous-ld7je With the exception of Boeing, I've found that Raytheon and LHM fairly stable to hold, a decent place to park a few bucks if you don't want to check every day
I mean do tou really want to overpay for raytheon stock
The bottom line is that Tesla made one intelligent move, which was to truly mass manufacture their cheapest car first, and only then really ramp up production of the more expensive models (Even though they had sold some roasters and model S before the model 3)
Now wait a minute; they've sold 70,000 Rivians and lost $30,000 on every one of them. That a loss of $2.1B. They raised $12B in their initial IPO, and the stock has lost 90% of its value, meaning Rivian capital value is $1.08B. So basically you're telling us up front the company has a negative value of $1.02B. Stick a fork in Rivian. They're done.
they are currently cold weather testing the truck suv and van up here in Fairbanks Alaska this week where temps have been in the -40 to -50f range
Can’t beat physics 😂
The same that happened with all EVs, theres hundreds of models and only 1-2% of population has an EV, the idea is that people will convert "quickly" but thats long gone because infrastructure arent simply there, charging is a headache if you cant charge at home, repairs are dreadfull, and selfdriving doesnt really work on most countries . Rivian, Lucid, Canoo, Polestar and so on will all fail, regardless of how good the cars are, infrastructure isnt there.
Bruh, Amazon ordered something like 100,000 rivian vans and will order more to replace current fleet - deals like this will keep it going, and it’s true for literally every other company you mentioned. Canoo already has thousands of orders from airports, campuses, and even NASA.
Orders =/= deliveries they will all fail and we can already see it@@andreirachko
What matters is the percent of new cars being sold that electric. Around 15% of global new cars sold were electric. This has consistently grown by around 50% annually. So in 5 or so years the majority of new cars sold will be electric. With various markets being slower or faster to adopt.
Your claims of EV companies failing may be right, but not because of infrastructure. That’s silly.
Was there a gas station at every block when the first automobiles came to market?
Did any new product that came to market have universal support from the beginning?
that comparison is ludacris, because you stay at the gas station for a couple of minutes, unlike EV's which at least ull stay 45m or an hour@@Mr.Ramirez95
Loveeeee this channel
Love the analysis.
My dad has an R1S and it's absolutely incredible.
Shame he won’t be able to get replacement parts after a few more months
@@z135210 Ok?
The trouble with EVs in addition to the cost is that you have a limited market. People that live in apartments have no way to charge them, people who rent homes are not going to spend the money for a faster charger, people who tow a trailer or worker with a trailer will have reduced ranges up to 50 percent, in colder climates you don't want one and if you take a vacation the charging takes too long and of course the price which is 30 grand more than an ice vehicle. EVs are a "niche" market and are there enough "niche" buyers? That's the question.
Valid 10 years ago. Today, your parroted talking points are becoming less and less relevant. New building codes are starting to include plugs for chargers, the price gap is only about 10-15k, cold climates aren't a problem, nor is vacationing(whatever that means). Most people never tow anything.
You talk a good game but that is not reality. I feel I am closer to the real ity than you. Tell me, if you are correct why are overpriced EVs sitting and rotting on dealer lots with no buyers? @@ianrobertson3419
A lot of apartment buildings have chargers now. I've lived in two, but in both cases drivers of huge ICE pickups liked to park in them as a political statement, and anyway no one who lived there could afford an EV.
Dude I see at least one every day in Portland OR. I’ve also installed hundreds of Rivian level 2 chargers
Sergio Marchionne deserves his due. He always talked about how cash intensive this business was. Time will tell if subverting the independent dealer model pays off for the EV upstarts.
I love the competition in the EV market but I can't get over the look of the front of the vehicles. It looks ugly, in my opinion, and probably turns a lot of people off.
Can you make a video on workhorse?
is there any point? those guys are trully a big BS of a stock...
Garbage 😅
While I understand Rivian is an interesting study since it is so new, there are tons of videos out there talking about the overall crash of the auto market highlighting the huge inventory of trucks and the like.
I've seen a couple rivians in STL. They look sweet but I always think "that's a rich guy in there."
Electric pickup trucks are such an odd concept. Seems like the kind of people who like pickups wouldn't overlap that much with EV fans.
Why?
I think you’re over looking the one major overlap. And that is they are status symbols.
Electric engines, from my understanding, are actually superior for hauling heavy loads. The bigger problem is just the price and range issues. If these are resolved, electric pickups are likely to become very popular.
@@bobchipman4473 1. They're motors, not engines. 2. They're actually worse for towing, not better.
@@bobchipman4473 Here's the problem: if you add more battery, you decrease the payload you can safely/legally tow or carry. Current battery technology is too heavy to be of any use, best stick to diesel if you need your vehicle to do any real work
I wonder if they bursting into flames in peoples garages?
I wonder about your grammar teacher.
@@geraldh.8047
Somebody hurt your feelings? This is the internet, none of you have proper grammar, none of you can spell. You all get your feelings hurt rather easily.👀
@@kenik2023 No but it’s a typical example of people who can neither think nor write correctly but believe they know so much. It would be funny if it weren’t so sad.
@@geraldh.8047 She's ...prolly... dead by now. Her red pen for circling grammar mis-steaks ran out and she suffered a stroke, then croaked.
No, they are not.
I see a lot of them on the roads in Colorado.. and one or two new ones a week.
There are a couple thousand R1 vehicles stored in the State Farm parking lot in Bloomington IL
In all the time of their existence I have never seen one of their trucks on the road until yesterday in Lubbock Tx.
Nahhh I see a shit ton of them everywhere everyday. Located in Miami / South Florida
There are 280-300 million cars in the us. Rivian has produced around 100k cars. Meaning that even if they have sold every car they ever made we are still talking about 0.03% of all cars. In other words less than 1 in 3000 cars is a Rivian. It is actually pretty likely to not see a lot of them around.
I’ve seen them in upstate NY 😂
You live in a poor area 😂
Your town's average household income is $52k. A rivian owner is very likely not going to live in your town.
Sandy Munro did a tear down where they explained why Rivian looses money on the cars it’s because they are sourcing products that are very costly to produce so that’s why vehicle is expensive
Thats why byd is market leader outside states.
We'll see how long they'll be around. Love to see a video on Lucid
I own a Rivian R1S, and it's the best car I've driven and owned (previous cars X5 and Jeep Grand Cherokee). You can now lease a Rivian. They are forecasting profitability by Q4 2024
Forecasting lies
Well, you were a Jeep owner, so you already have giant tires on your Rivian?
Watch the video. They are nowhere near profitability. The progress has been slow. Hope they survive cause they make decent vehicles.
They are losing money on the Amazon delivery vehicles... they need to be charging atleast $100k/car for that delivery van.
Amazon owns 16% of the company. They cant
@@TopShot501st that's why they are in this position... also cuz the CEO is a bad operator... Musk is great operator.
@@CASTLE69 Tesla still has an 18% Margin which is in line with Toyota
Rivian: Attention Jeff Bezos! We are raising the purchase price of the Amazon delivery vehicles to $100K.
Jeff Bezos: No, you're not.
Rivian: ok, you're right.
@@JohnSmith-ho3cu
Jeff Bezos: sorry Rivian, we won't pay $100k/van... but we will give u free week trial of Prime!!
2023 was slightly better in terms of loses because they charged more per vehicle to new buyers but had to sell the vehicles at lower prices to those who had preorderd their vehicles before the price increase to avoid lawsuits. Regardless, they need to build in-house, like their motor. In early 2023, they were similar to Nikola in which they designed the truck and software but every part was ordered from a vendor, which cuts into margins. Remember that Tesla makes even their seat in-house, which was mocked but essential to maintain profits
Rivian R1T is addressing a nich truck matket which is the leasure/lifestyle market. If they made a more utilitarian truck for contractors and for the rural consumer I think this would broaden their market.
This would require a longer bed and more power outlets and beefed up power output to power tools and also to act as a power backup for ones home.
So addressing the same market as Ford Lightning and Cybertruck.
The Cybertruck eats into both to be honest but may put off more traditional buyers.
Rivian is the official truck of “we use black and decker tools at home”
“Harbor Freight is just as good as Snap-On.”
DeWalt and Festool son.
.....and Tesla is the official truck of "my truck can't carry tools"....
@@dominicestebanrice7460 I have a Rivian not a Tesla.
@@thedukeofmanville
Tomato
Tamato
🤷🏿♂️