Thanks I first met her in Vancouver she was very young and some how we were talking after the conference, my buddy was with me and we both talked and somehow I could hold up a conversation with her, any how my buddy looked at me after not saying anything for a few hours, he said to me with a funny look, she is the smartest person he ever heard talking, then he said it would be impossible for her too lie , I so believe that
Great another good person. Love the part where Lyn talks about cancer and energy in the same sentence, she on to something here in the type of energy we feed our bodies, the health systems don’t seem to care about this, she’s obviously a human being that understands and cares. Keep it up Nate and Lyn and thank you for your enquiry efforts.
Another outstanding conversation, thanks again Nate. Lyn mentioned at the end she was interested in new power tech and also small nuclear reactors. It would be really good to hear what else she had to say down that line since so much of these conversations hinge around energy. I also like her positive take on our ability to invent and adapt. Will now add her to the list of important people to follow and personal choices to make thanks to you. We can be better, why not.
This was an amazing interview. Lyn is quite an astonishing person. The world could use many more people like her. She has a fascinating wisdom. She did say one thing that caught my attention - if everything goes well then... There are many positive ways that an enlightened humanity could make this world a better, more sustainable, more equitable planet if it weren't for human greed and power dynamics. I'm all for doing whatever we can for as long as we can to shift things in that positive direction. That said looking at how other animals drain their ecosystem to collapse, looking at how past civilizations have exhausted their resources and collapsed, looking at the trends and the growing conflicts in our mostly business as usual world my vision for the future sadly is a civilizational train wreck. After that train wreck some small semblance of humanity will still eek out an existence but it will be a tiny fragment of today and our current civilizational memory will fade and then be forgotten. I just cannot imagine that there will be a great simplification. We are not collectively wise enough to do that. It probably won't be any kind of soft landing. Sadly it will more likely look like a fall off a cliff and a crashing onto the rocks below. I continue to do my best to do my best in this world. The Buddhist in me accepts and acknowledges impermanence while holding space for the present moment and a journey that holds life in the beautiful wonder and reverence it deserves. Thank you Nate for the great work that you do and your contributions to making the world a better place. We need more of you and your sensibilities too.
Great words. I think The Great Simplification can either be via a trainwreck, or through managed degrowth. Either way, it looks like one of them is heading our way. 🙏🌍🌱
17:25 "Relying on centralization works until it doesn't." Brilliant. And of course this is the argument for decentralization, which not-so-coincidentally is the way of the world when centralization breaks down. Just like Tainter said back in 1988, when a nation or empire collapses, regional polities arise.
Greatly appreciated Nate’s pushback on Bitcoin with “does it alleviate (or actually worsen) inequality?” - That is always the right question to ask! Would love to hear Lynn in a future roundtable episode specifically on the subject of crypto currencies and energy.
Usually topics relating to finance is really hard to listen to. It kind of hits my brain like a brick wall. Currently, she's the only one who makes it somewhat more palatable to listen to.
At the 42 min. mark. I've been a believer in MMT for 12 years. I'm a doomer when it comes to climate change. So, Lyn asks what will the world be like in 20 years? My answer is civilization will have collapsed because the rate of temp increases is accelerating at an accelerating rate, now. The rates will accelerate because we will do nothing to cut fossil fuel use and at east 2 tipping points will be tipped in the next 20 years. Note that the methane release tipping point has already been tipped. So, the US Gov. debt is not a problem. The problem will be that the real resources will be insufficient to meet the needs to sustain life for the American people. If this is true, then it does NOT matter how sustainable the debt was. The US will be unable to produce or buy enough food, stuff, and heating/cooling to keep all its people alive. Basically, the real resource problems that Lyn thinks will make the debt bubble burst, would always be the problems that would crash the US economy, no matter what the other situations are. Show me how I'm wrong.
00:00 - Lyn Alden Works and Info, Broken Money 06:02 - Decades with less available energy 06:45 - ESG 08:30 - Kiril Sokoloff, Jeremy Grantham, Luke Gromen 09:03 - Debt and the Economy 09:38 - Just Stop Oil 09:43 - Oil’s centrality to our current lifestyles 10:49 - Long term energy consumption 15:31 - Money and the Mechanism of Exchange, William Stanley Jevons 16:04 - Cross Atlantic Telegraph Cable 17:02 - Disruption of the money system in WW1 18:02 - Decentralization in Bitcoin 18:34 - Decentralization in communication 19:29 - Jevons Paradox 21:53 - Majority of the world lives in developing countries 23:43 - Currency debasement 27:16 - Top 1% own 50% of the wealth, and top 10% own 90% of the wealth 29:10 - Arbitrage 31:10 - Average annual money supply growth in the US is ~7% 32:10 - Technology deflationary effects 33:43 - Business expenses that were historically offset by low interest rates no longer being supported 34:45 - NVIDIA, S&P 500 Energy 35:44 - Inflationary/Disinflationary cycles 36:26 - Nifty Fifty 37:28 - Dot Com Bubble 39:07 - Modern Monetary Theory 39:40 - Stanley Druckenmiller - US Gov debt vs total unfunded liabilities 40:24 - Debt Clock, Ross Perot 44:53 - Emerging Markets 45:14 - Nixon Shock 50:39 - Fiscal Dominance 51:10 - Banks role in money creation 57:40 - Jeff Booth 1:09:17 - Small Modular Nuclear Reactor 1:14:52 - 2013 unintended chain splits, 2018 bitcoin bug 1:16:55 - Alex Gladstein 1:17:12 - Central Bank DIgital Currencies 1:17:31 - Nigeria CBDC adoption 1:18:11 - Bitcoin adoption by country 1:26:45 - Bitcoin concentration of use 1:28:10 - China and bitcoin 1:31:30 - Yield Curve Control
I bought her book based on this episode Actually a good chunk of the books I buy and read come from this podcast haha She’s incredibly smart I bet her book will teach me a great deal
The "Broken Money System"...misses the point by trying to compare real ( commodity ) money, while citing inflation after WWI and the 20X leverage within the gold standard due to fractional reserve strategies. This neglects the reality...( see Lords of Finance ) when the only real players were the U.S. ( now the number 1 productive economy and owning 80+ of the world's gold ) and Great Britain struggling to preserve the value of the "pound sterling", France aspiring to join them, and Germany, the means by which they expected this to happen due to terms of the Versailles Treaty that required reparations in gold. Enter de facto fiat in 1934, with gold confiscation by FDR...in the attempt to end the deflationary cycle that reached its inflationary peak in 1926 at 112% where all the wealth flowed to the U.S. as its market represented the highest rate of potential return. This money was also highly leveraged, and the N.Y. Fed was in control of U.S. money policy. This also changed in 1934, as the Fed failed to fulfill its initial promise of preventing "bank runs"...as the majority of banks were "local community banks" and prevented by law from expanding beyond these limits. As a result these banks failed, and the inter-state banks survived leading to the current system, with a power shift to Fed. central committee, although the NY Fed still has outsized influence due to its proximity to Wall St. ( further details on this as well as a point-by-point examination of the "new deal" can be found in FDR's Folly: How Roosevelt and his New Deal Prolonged the Great Depression by Jim Powell ) The deflationary cycle ended in 1939 when the value of the dollar settled at an inflated value of 67% of the 1860 and 1897 dollar, in that, it now cost $1.67 to purchase what $1 did in those years. At this point, in real terms, U.S. currency was fiat, even though it bore the fiction that the Federal Reserve and U.S. notes claimed they were redeemable in "lawful money". This was a lie...as no redemption was possible. The con was extended to foreign nations by Bretton Woods in 1944...where the lie was that the dollar was "as good as gold". Redemption was discouraged using various incentives including that of the eurodollar, vs that of the U.S dollar... and the fact that the U.S. was still the greatest industrial producer and its largest creditor. Inflation, however, became a permanent feature from 1939 forward, and economic decline in terms of the percentage of world production began in 1950. Inflation, like compounded interest, is an exponential function and by 1970 had reached 300% ...and did not go unnoticed...and attempts to redeem it began in March of 1971. The $35. by law fixed official price of gold...meant that redemption would require 4x the gold, for each dollar of U.S. currency...and "redemptions" were suspended in Aug. temporarily. ( permanently ) The dollar now became the world's fiat reserve currency...gifted to the world, and since the U.S. has effectively asserted dominant control over all the exchange mechanisms, including the IMF and World Bank, the future to the inevitable present began. The next decade saw another 113% inflation rate, so total inflation from 1939 was over 600%, as "fiat" was now fronted with the cost of "commodities", oil in particular...and the U.S. became a debtor nation in real terms in 1971, and by 1984, the largest debtor nation. At present, the national debt is 34 Trillion, with 8.2 trillion owed to foreign entities and this number does not include the future committed yet not counted ( unfunded ) liabilities. For those still confused by "fiat" vs. real commodity money ( gold ) and quoted "inflation" numbers... the government calculates cumulative inflation at about 2200%, while in terms of gold, this rate is over 5000% at the 1974 official price of gold of $42. and change, up from the 1971 price of $35. and gold/silver are still "lawful money" in the U.S. It also must be pointed out that under the gold standard, the U.S. became debt-free in 1836, when Jackson prevented the renewal of the Second National Bank's charter. Printed money to finance the Civil War, resulted in 95% inflation and then entered a deflationary cycle that lasted until 1897, when the dollar regained its 1860 value. Prices dropped precipitously, with oil falling from its 1865 price of $16/12 brrl, to less than $1. where it stayed until 1909, while steel and rail freight dropped by 50%, all while the dollar was gaining value, and the U.S. became the world's dominant economy. Even for the most dense, the destructive nature of fiat should be clear, as are its beneficiaries... government ( non-productive ) and the F.I.RE sector ( non productive ) and all who have become dependent on government. ( non-productive ) ( see Michael Hudson ) The flight of fiat into commodity assets of any kind is confirmed in this interview...and that it can be done with fake money is even more ludicrous. Bitcoin is just another cog in the fake money scheme, as are all financial advisors since it simply perpetuates a doomed system, until the music stops. This interview lasts 1.40, but lacks the above context...adding that context, reduces its validity to one that is highly questionable...or should.
I like listening to Lyn, both for the engr/finteck & bitcoin views but also her recognition of distributed solutions being the future as opposed to centralization.
The talk is fluid and technical, and a lot of topics are touched. What is missing for me are aspects of value and ethics. So it leaves me kind of unsatisfied.
Congratulations on your intellect, decency and ethics. Sorely lacking in most economics, along with (as this one) a flawed understanding of physics and limits to growth. I notice population overshoot didn't come up, probably because understanding it would destroy most of her beliefs.
Whenever I hear your discussions of finance with guests, your questions of SHTF moments nearly never seem to get analyzed in the dismal spirit of the question. It is as if the world of debt has its own reality divorced from planetary limits. It may be deduced that money itself, as an amoral digital mediator, allows humans to stop choosing doing to do right and instead choose unaccountablility. Funny to think that. We can count money but avoid seeing its use having nearly universal negative impact on the greater reality, the one that really matters and exists.
I’m trying. Each discipline focuses on their expertise. Climate and ocean scientists are not fluent in financial alchemy and vice versa. It’s changing but slowly. Hence, this work
@@thegreatsimplification You are a thought leader in my book. Holding the space for others, not being overtly pressuring or argumentative, is a great talent (or perhaps a learned skill). Still, it does come down to attention and the limitations of words and time. A question that I would like to have asked though is whether a guest has the dry mouth, can't sleep, I am about to cry, this is a desperate moment, there is no way out realization.
@thegreatsimplification It is interesting, though, that nearly all of your guests recognize & have voiced the need for balance, community, connection with nature and loved ones as primary human needs, regardless of what their expertise is. I heard Lyn say it, as well. Great interview!
@@anitashore5050 A generally good and realistic acknowledgment. But is balance now even possible? I believe this is a taboo subject. Even if I am in my extremity or if my surroundings cannot support a community, to say nothing of maintaining a functional ecosystem, I will still do all I can within my power to stay alive and keep what I have. It doesn't much matter the costs to nature or the community if I am so ego driven. Maybe I will see a light at the end but by then it will have been too late to make amends.
"There is no human future that is compatible with a single fungible global currency and interest and most of human access mediated by private property" -- Daniel Schmachtenberger Yes, money definitely "allows humans to stop choosing doing to do right and instead choose unaccountablility". Jared Diamond says civilizations collapse when their elites can shield themselves, which money somewhat permits and international money, migration, and trade really permit. In particular, Mukesh Ambani & Narendra Modi do not care if India has 100,000,000 wet bulb deaths in the 2050s, because their families can move much of their asset to Canada, Russia, etc. Also, all finace people think fairly short term.
Very interesting podcast. Lyn Alden is obviously a real brainiac - not just financials/technology/crypto but actually bringing her insights down to the gut level. Take a break from work, get some sunshine, eat whole foods, etc. My show notes. Lyn Alden's prescriptions: 1) Start with your personal life before moving up to the global level 2) Find a place where you like to live and can have balance with the others around you 3) Declutter and reduce energy consumption 4) Solve friction points with the resources you have 5) Get value out of things by human connections 1:04:50 Nate: "Do these financial podcast and videos just converge on biophysical reality?" Lyn: "Technologies are determining the outcomes to a certain point because they change the incentive structures, but not totally." My comment: There is a demographic flow that is obviously apparent to Lyn and Nate. They approach it from the financial and energy angles. I approach it from the anthropological and farming angle. But it is the same flow. The same flow - I might add - that has been going on since 1966 or thereabouts. "Bitcoin is optimized to use stranded energy." Brilliant insight!
Land Banking Land Banking Isn’t over supply We have thousands of empty properties in UK due to land banking. If they rented it out , the supply would make the rent go down which would devalue the property value itself. So it’s more profitable to merry go round the sales and increase virtual values, rather than actual use. We need actual use value not virtual use value. Everyone is being crippled by this . It’s clogging up. Small businesses can’t pay enough for employees to pay these rents. Yet empty properties are allowed to void.
Any chance Lyn can expand on their stance on bitcoin in this conversation in this place (UA-cam comments) ? I'm curious. I'd like to know the correlation to the many statements made here. Thx
How much will Bitcoin be worth when the internet and/or electrical grid go down, as they inevitably will, if you understand the second law of thermodynamics.
@@CanadianSatoshi It's a dumb argument disguised in a pseudo intellectual format to sound more credible. The only way bitcoin goes down is if there's a global catastrophe that wipes out electricity forever, at that point only food, shelter and weapons are valuable, can't eat those gold bars, stocks and bonds either. Bitcoin has a very well crafted consensus mechanism for situations like this, with incentives for the good of the network. If the WHOLE WORLD lost internet for a day, nothing would change once it came back, because any fraudulent changes would be rejected by automatic consensus.
Bitcoin should die long before then. It's security declines with halvings, so expect double spends in the 2030s. Also, bitcoin miners cannot provide the same security when using intermittent power, like solar. And so many more vulnerabilities.
Farming and Forestry, Water and Energy are long-term investments in security, societal health and wealth. The case for 1000 foot waves is academic and containing climate change is a global challenge not supported by the international oil industry and warmongering?
@@simonmasters3295 "It returns all displaced materials to their inertial place of origin or it gets the oceans and dies again." -"Silence of the Physics" Earth is facing very very near term ~100 meters of sudden ocean rise. Climate models virtually ignore increasing pressure and 200 thousand years of anthropogenic thermal-mass (including heat & CO2) in the oceans. The models largely ignore Earth's spin and Gravity as well as mass movement to the tune of ~100Billion tons of material per year from deep underground to the surface. The ocean water rising will be radioactive as the ~1000 nuclear reactors around the world go supercritical (they can not cool as atmospheric and ocean temps increase) do to increasing thermal mass and pressure. It takes some 80 years to "shut down". There simply is no choice. The real "pandemic" is civilization. It is being removed as such b/c of the layers of relational physics which bring about the envelope of physics/harmonics for Life to exist. Humans have destroyed this envelope's ability to resonate within tolerances for that particular harmonic envelope to exist. Thus a change of state is occurring wherein a new stable thermodynamic resonance will exist that will not support complex life from what has been for 100's of millions of years. Many models (much as the IPCC) virtually if not completely ignore correlating changes in atmospheric pressure; ocean stratification and motion changes; exchange rates of various thermal mass gasses between ocean & atmosphere... etc. It also is miss-applying the "Boltzmann" principal of "radiative energy" -as relating to and with the above et-all. "Heat" cannot "radiate" to space from Earth in the way being described in many models. This would violate laws of thermodynamics which includes "Black Body radiation". ~90% of ALL anthropogenic thermal-mass since slash & burn and pointy sticks is in the oceans. What you are observing is "red-shift" as heat follows the path of thermal-mass capacitance (largely into the oceans). The most relevant affect/effect is logarithmic ocean expansion. This conserves angular momentum from the wave/particle outward. Lectures by Walter Lewin. They will make you ? Physics. 1.2M subscribers #123 - Mistery of Energy Loss Solved - Physics Works Relativistic Doppler Shift ua-cam.com/video/F2FGkrlaCAc/v-deo.html Amplified Arctic Warming Causing Stratospheric Polar Vortex Stretching and Extreme Cold Outbreaks (Paul Beckwith) ua-cam.com/video/0ERa7j5Pm5A/v-deo.html All civilizations have collapsed into sand b/c of desiccation of the local environment. Bio-Complexity has been exponentially decreasing since pointy sticks & fire. the IPCC is vastly understating what is happening. As much as 80% of all non-human or agricultural life is already gone and going faster. There is only about 3% of Earth's forests left. ~90% of All anthropogenic thermal mass since slash & burn (including heat and CO2) is in the oceans. Ocean Temperatures for Last 700000 Years ua-cam.com/video/5YKeSI2g3z4/v-deo.html There is no mistake as to temp increase overall b/c of humans. Physics of Life & Climate Change: Angular Momentum Demo: Hoberman Sphere(Professor Boyd F. Edwards): ua-cam.com/video/64t-dVtDwkQ/v-deo.html Solving one of the toughest Indian exam questions (angular momentum & velocity) Tibees ua-cam.com/video/TxXuo9ukVxU/v-deo.html Any mass moved from one distance radially from center mass of a rotating system to a grater radial distance from said center mass alters the inertial state of said mass and effects angular momentum of the entire rotating system. Now visualize oil; water; iron; gold; lead; tin; copper; coal; sand; rare earths; zinc; mercury; silver; etc... All having been relocated from one inertial state relative to Earth's core & barrycentre (solar system center mass). The Entire solar system reacts to conserve angular momentum - All climate models can be derived from this albeit with much more alarming accuracy. In effect the Earth / moon experience an ever increasing force inward (towards center mass) This causes "bobbing" and more pronounced chandler's wobble etc. "Circular Motion" - Prof. Lewin: ua-cam.com/video/mWj1ZEQTI8I/v-deo.html Remember to think of Earth as separate densities & rates (core; plasma/molten-fluid; mantle; oceans; atmosphere) when you watch the video or while reading this comment. Rotation and Torque - Physics 101 / AP Physics 1 Review with Dianna Cowern ua-cam.com/video/D3_0vHJVHHo/v-deo.html Angular Momentum - Physics 101 / AP Physics 1 Review with Dianna Cowern ua-cam.com/video/2WZ1PZ7imrI/v-deo.html Gravity and Orbital Mechanics - Physics 101 / AP Physics 1 Review with Dianna Cowern ua-cam.com/video/IjqKcGK-ccY/v-deo.html Torque: Crash Course Physics #12 (CrashCourse) ua-cam.com/video/b-HZ1SZPaQw/v-deo.html The Brachistochrone, with Steven Strogatz (3Blue1Brown) ua-cam.com/video/Cld0p3a43fU/v-deo.html Simple Harmonic Motion - Physics 101 / AP Physics 1 Review with Dianna Cowern ua-cam.com/video/Z92-7AY_S1A/v-deo.html Circular Motion - Physics 101 / AP Physics 1 Review with Dianna Cowern ua-cam.com/video/cpy4V2Bk0jc/v-deo.html Earth is being desiccated at an increasing rate. Earth loses H2 leaving behind the O due to accelerating thermal-mass loading of both atmosphere and oceans. Ocean rise due to thermal mass increase is logarithmic (expansion). Ocean Heat Content (Science Talk With Jim Massa): ua-cam.com/video/cn3B9apcnQA/v-deo.html Lectures by Walter Lewin.They will make you Love Physics. 1.22M subscribers 8.01x - Lect 32 - Heat, Thermal Expansion ua-cam.com/video/mAAvp5YzWxk/v-deo.html CO2 is correlative and contributing NOT the prime causation. "Green" or "clean" energy is a myth. Civilization is orthogonal to Nature (actual reality). Nature is the Universal purpose b/c of complexity and thermodynamics. "The Earth is precious. If you alter it you will ruin it." -Lao Tzu The above Physics proves this statement without question. The "moral duty" is to protect; preserve; and nurture Natural complexity which IS in relative free-fall. The hubris one displays by predicating "civilization" and or humans is disturbing. Physics Support: Earth is a Dynamo: ua-cam.com/video/fqmFYux5dXw/v-deo.html For every milligram of material that changes it's inertial state/position relative to core and mantle there is added cavitation system wide that translates to CC/heat PhysicsGirl Cavitation: ua-cam.com/video/jbgvQNhFDTo/v-deo.html Earth's Plate Tectonics May Be Actually Driven By The Moon, Study Suggests Anton Petrov ua-cam.com/video/FPnmZclKevs/v-deo.html Humans extract&relocate ~30Billion Tons of material/yer not includingice melt. Science Talk With Jim Massa - Antarctica, Greenland's Ice Loss ua-cam.com/video/V9Imo0DUqUQ/v-deo.html Glaciers Are Disappearing Almost As Fast As You Can Ski Down Them | Climate Games Physics Girl ua-cam.com/video/CNAWnZ49QhU/v-deo.html Tech weighs more than all organisms (Science Talk With Jim Massa): ua-cam.com/video/4xU-HiT3XJw/v-deo.html Black Bear News (Kevin Sandbloom) www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/22/worlds-consumption-of-materials-hits-record-100bn-tonnes-a-year Blackbody Radiation, Modern Physics, Quantum Mechanics, and the Oxford Comma | Doc Physics (Doc Schuster) ua-cam.com/video/GgD3Um_f0DQ/v-deo.html Earth's Polar Drift Acceleration: (Anton Petrov) ua-cam.com/video/OxiF8YQju2g/v-deo.html Earth's Magnetosphere is Creating Water on the Moon (Anton Petrov) ua-cam.com/video/N5qkjDjo2QI/v-deo.html Earth Seems To Be Wobbling On Massive Gravitational Ripples (Anton Petrov) ua-cam.com/video/-JftpW2--54/v-deo.html Surprising Reason For Mercury's Large Iron Core - Sun's Magnetism (Anton Petrov) ua-cam.com/video/sesmvcWnUos/v-deo.html New Theories on the Origin of Life with Dr. Eric Smith ua-cam.com/video/0cwvj0XBKlE/v-deo.html @19:00 Convecton cool rock -->hotmolten @~14:00+ Solar Radiation and the planetary atmosphere Crystal's Edict "The Point" -Is so far reaching that it is nearly impossible to say in words. Speaking and lecturing or listening to speaking and or lecturing about "living; life/Nature" are mostly just received as some kind of esoteric truth and a longing for something more meaningful. The actual meaning of the same Truth is that only Heaven exists and humans are the only thing lost to it and from it. Servitude to Nature alone is the only road to redemption. Inside or outside. Death / life are just misnomers, change of state. The Purpose remains constant. One Soul many faces. No one form is superior to another. Civilization it's self is the cause of all life's destruction. Accepting this as some kind of necessary phase or step TO something is delusion. Now is always constant. All and every essence is always dying & being born. Action is now. Preservation of complexity for the sake of All beings NOT civilization at all And not humans first 1billion humans to dismantle all infrastructure and returning ALL mined/drilled materials to their inertial place of origin by order of density and toxicity. 1billion humans to create "Earth-Ship" type self generating environments from as much earthen material as possible. As many species as possible must be able to migrate to & from these .... All the rest to support the the first two. One Soul Many beings /faces/species Crystal's Law
Yeah nobody hits deflation and everything going to the price Of marginal cost to production Extreme deflation of a i and the health of robotic labor And the great Bitcoin repricing
Really don’t see where this conversation with Lyn Alden fits in with your tenet for preparing for a world with less energy.. Modern money is the root of all evil. When energy is seen to be on the downward slope of M.King Hubbert’s bell curve money is not going to resolve survivability, only those who’ve prepared and practice self sufficiency will survive. Apart from burning physical money don’t see how it can resolve for a lack of energy. A new social contract will need to be made🤔
What do you mean by modern money? The current monetary system is about to be disrupted by bitcoin. I think that is highly relevant as the current monetary system is the root problem as you described it. Good money and a healthy monetary system is essential as it is the foundation to how we allocate resource in our civilization. Bitcoin is good money by all measures. It will heal our money system and lay the foundation for the betterment of civilization. In conclusion Lyns expertise is highly relevant to the topics discussed on this channel and further discussions with her should be had.
@@yannik1679 It’s not part of any social contract I’d consider to fair or sustainable. Even Nate Hagens seems divided on it, maybe because energy wise it’s one “Great Simplification” to far. Lyn Alden: "The Myth of Frictionless Finance" | The Great Simplification #113” Bitcoin View/Listen at 1:21:40 = Nate : “I tell my friends and family that I think there’s a 50% chance Bitcoin goes to 300,000, 400,000, and 50% chance it goes to zero. So it’s because of what Governments are likely to do that I think Bitcoin probably goes up and goes up substantially. However, if that happens which I expect it will, won’t there be an absolutely gargantuan wealth and income inequality that results from that, where most people who don’t own any crypto and then there’s current whales and dolphins will effectively be trillionaires or de facto in today’s dollars?…”🤔
@@yannik1679 Lyn Alden: "The Myth of Frictionless Finance" | The Great Simplification #113” Bitcoin View/Listen at 1:21:40 = Nate : “I tell my friends and family that I think there’s a 50% chance Bitcoin goes to 300,000, 400,000, and 50% chance it goes to zero. So it’s because of what Governments are likely to do that I think Bitcoin probably goes up and goes up substantially. However, if that happens which I expect it will, won’t there be an absolutely gargantuan wealth and income inequality that results from that, where most people who don’t own any crypto and then there’s current whales and dolphins will effectively be trillionaires or de facto in today’s dollars?…”🤔
Brilliant analysis until the Bitcoin bit. Comparing crypto to tech companies is inaccurate and problematic: those companies produce actual products and services that average folks can own & use without being required to invest in the company -- iphones, Google Drive, EVs, etc. Bitcoin *is* the asset (a highly volatile & speculative one) and you can't use it without investing in it and then selling it. Lyn doesn't mention all the really awful things being done with crypto: human trafficking, drug sales, funding dictators, etc. I wish she had been more transparent about her own potential conflicts of interest if she has significant Bitcoin holdings. I hope you'll bring more tough questions to a Bitcoin roundtable if you do one!
Bitcoin and AI use a lot of energy! Where is it going to come from? If you take the energy away from different markets then you crash the market. She starts on this @ 33 minutes in
Right now Bitcoin is basically NFTs you can spend like money and believe you're wealthy and financially stable, right up to the moment the second law of thermodynamics asserts itself, and then all you'll have is the memories of those sweet, delusional Bitcoin days.,
If parts of the grid do go down, and you're left with islands of electricity, the Bitcoin network can still work - you could broadcast transactions over short wave radio. A receiver would pick them up and broadcast them to the Bitcoin network. Your Amex card wont work because all the existing networks have a single point of failure. Gold isnt practical because nobody has any except the central banks. I can see Bitcoin being more and more useful as the crisis deepens. Also, the use-once-and-discard consumer economy could not have come into existence without unpegging from the gold standard in 1971 and systematically devaluing money. "Whats the point in me holding onto my money when it will be worth less tomorrow? I might as well buy this thing i dont need". Bitcoin solves this.
Lyn was right to sidestep the centralization of wealth question the host insisted on and even called a "flaw". Bitcoin has NOTHING to do with decentralization of wealth, it's about decentralization of control, of the rules of the monetary system itself.
But if bitcoin uses "leftover" energy, isn't that just energy that otherwise wouldn't be spent on anything? I thought that was a good thing. Saving energy by not using it on anything at all, which also saves resources. If there's not enough "leftover" energy because it gets funnelled into operating and mining crypto, won't that just mean that the claims on natural resources and energy just keep growing bigger and bigger, as more people start using bitcoin and crypto? Which then means we'll need to build out even _more_ energy/grid to be able to have this "leftover" energy available whenever, increasing the demand for even more energy. Isn't this just Jevon's Paradox? Nothing is really saved, we're just doing more and more of it. Burning more energy to make/maintain more and more digital currency which can later be exchanged in energy/resources. What am I missing here? 🤔
44:15 I don't know if it was the wrong lesson, but there is definitely many a lesson to be learnt from the last few decades. And if that is one way to think about off setting aka re-orientating or correcting that trajectory, I think there will be some interesting short and long term projects coming out of the woodwork. 47:20 and this is where education institutions have not only dropped and fumbled the ball but for many they had completely lost the field and ball where it was suppose to provide excellence in the long game. I will however point out, the ICT issue in education is still a smuggled concept under the guise of tools for the student rather than an open dialogue for how data and community can be better utilised. 49:00 oh no doubt. Unlocking the next 3 swings of the pendulum is something to aspire toward. Even if it means micro parcels of dense data is the only thing to look for when we are long forgotten and barely a loose particle being pushed along a noxious weed lineage variety. Seriously it's a life long battle. 58:10 what is it with copper other than Solomon's wealth and it's [poisonous] use for utensils. I do like it though for its symbolic nature of veering away from the doom and gloom of Nebuchadnezzar statue. Gotta tell you some as such tooth sayers should fondly bring in as an reverse bounty... lol it won't be a welcoming revelation for some folk. Ouch! 😌 that glare bouncing off ivory windows can be sooo delicate betimes. 1:11:23 [pause] Bitcoin and Bulls ... funny you mention that. I just wrote about the absurdity of such things occuring for production and how it is projected rather than generated [play]. I hear what your laying out but I don't hear how it is activated in human soul. That's okay because this is why people like Nate offer a space for divergence to gravitate toward these (flexible) types of centres. 1:22:17 I am one glass of sherry too deep when I say... The roles in govt are only as good as we design them to be through diverse education opportunities. If we recognise education is not a child minding agency, then maybe it will function as it was suppose to do. Equilibrilise the metabolism of Earth. Not just blindly strip it but also not imagining a magic Genie refilling what we rape and pillage off it's free energy aka "debt guzzling" comforts. To think we only recently came to know stagnate zones in other ways than the one side of the same stone. 1:36:45 "inter-repression" that's a strong word. Sounds like drinking at the knee of a conduit. Not quite biting the toes but who am I to ask such things of Time. Nate! You forgot to use your nudge stick. What is one thing she would want for her child to know about the world 😚🎶. Lynn!! Have you had a dialogue with Taimud Ahmad yet? Would be amazing to see you both add perspective toward Nate's discussion groups 1:38:35 that's my key takeaway too. Thank you both for a much needed open dialogue of perspective.
US has millions of condos. Second third fourth homes, yachts that sit empty 50 weeks. Ditto Americans condos etc in Mexico that are empty. All of which requires electric gas water sewage fire protection police ambulance 24x7. Corporations own millions of air b and b, vrbo, etc also
I agree that energy is an essential for civilized cultures to continue existing, but it is not something we can go pick off of a tree...it is not "free" in terms of what it takes to use and produce. Humans need to build technology capable of changing the energy from it's *_potential_* form to it's *_kinetic_* form. Creating the machines also takes energy, as does feeding the people creating the machines...but there is a beginning and an end to this. The process begins with someone thinking. It is sustained by people who think *_and_* act...and it only ends when the thinkers stop acting. It begins with the individual's effort to think and their willingness to act on the results. If the individual is smart enough to learn from their successes as well as their failures, the axiom "if the act is successful, the thinking is, too" is good enough as a principle for reliable action. It's pretty concrete bound, mind you...but this is the state in which most modern people exist in. That can change quickly, though...and those changes are getting faster because of the technology you depend on to read *this* *message.*
Great to see philosophy in action... just kidding. Thinking requires some calories. Those units of energy are tremendously expensive in external energy cost for nearly all of us. Then actually doing most things uses tools, devices, transport etc. that are impossibly further out of whack with returns. You think there is a technology that puts a balance in this? The end of it is when we recognize the foolishness of growth and progress. Project life forward 30 or 40 years and see if this is not so.
Modern technology, which any pupil of mine would rightfully point out, requires energy. Not only does it _require_ energy, it requires *_more_* than the technology it replaced (the internet replaced the telephone system, television, and radio). The next stage for the internets (A.I.) will eventually require energy orders of magnitude greater than the internet itself. These are exciting times! 🤑 The point is that if the energy that sustains our modern culture were to become intermittent or unreliable, most people would find themselves needing to do the thing they've been avoiding all of their lives: they would need to actually start thinking as if they were going to act on the results. This is easier than it sounds, and is the most important element of *_"thoughtful action."_* My friends are in full agreement about this, BTW. 😁 Most would start thinking about energy, which would produce natural questions like: what it is? how much is needed? why is it no longer reliable? why is it so expensive? All valid questions any reasonable person would ask.
"Clean energy" is a myth...which is a lie people tell in the attempt to stop an argument. We will see higher energy costs, and we will see reliability decrease. Green Energy is by fact of technology unreliable for the task it has been sold to perform. The closer to 2045 we get, the more it will cost and the less reliable it will be. There are resources on the internet to prove the facts of technology that make solar and wind power unreliable. You are invited to use Google to investigate them. Most people do not like liars and generally avoid them when they can. This is broadly successful in face-to-face encounters, and would be almost as successful in a culture of freedom. But we do not live in such a culture, and we have none from the past to study. We currently live in a culture where our government is lawfully trusted to be both the chief violator AND guardian of individual rights. In this culture it becomes important to listen to the liar...and to pay attention to who is taking what they say on faith. 🤨 I have no advice for people who enjoy being lied to...except maybe "go seek help." 😷 If the lies become dogma within the political class they will turn them into the laws. This is what is happening now, and this is why we will see higher energy costs and lower reliability in our future. Americans are abandoning their freedom to act because they do not want to think about it, or they like being lied to.
Of all the important things a civilized culture needs, free thinkers and risk takers are #1 & #2...in that order. Are we in an age of free thinkers? Would anyone like to see what a Harvard degree gets you? How many risk takers are out there? -Twitter- ...sorry "X"...is the joke that cost Musk's shareholders billions. What's the risk? I'm afraid the culture is barren on both counts...the thinkers are cowering under their lecterns, and the risk takers are busy jumping out of planes, or cutting parts of themselves off. The free "thinkers" are the ones enjoying a "free" education. As an example I give you the combined student body of Harvard, or Yale, or Columbia. Not a thinker amongst them. Certainly not one willing to correct the crowd... The takers of "risk" are either driven by raw emotions or by "other-ism." As examples I give you Elon Musk...who bought Twitter as the punchline of one of his really bad jokes, and Sam Bankman-Fried...he was accepted by the Harvard/Yale/MIT crowd as brilliant. He in fact is the definition of mental retardation. That's also something a Harvard degree will give you. 🤗 We're in for a hard time, folks...well, harder for some of us...exciting for others. For civilized cultures to flourish they need free minds to create better ways to produce and use energy. Higher costs and less reliability means that the right thinking is not being done, and the proper risks are not being taken. If the culture has some form of free market, this would not become a full blown energy crisis. Do we have a free energy market? 🤔 An energy crisis is not caused by a shortage of energy, it's caused by a shortage of free thinkers and risk takers. We will continue to experience this "shortage" as long as we exalt emotions, and as long as we continue to use "other-ism" as our ethical standard. There are no gods to intervene and no shortcuts to the thinking that must be done. Think, act, adjust...and defend yourself.
Jeff Booth made that brilliant point that Fiat money, printing and ever growing debt pushes the consumerism and over-consumption and over-production. Bitcoin fixes this. Super hopeful for the future. LETS GO
I cannot envision a mechanism where 'the world' accepts Bitcoin as an actual currency and it becomes widely used by actual people. Right now it is the equivalent of wildly-priced baseball cards. You can have them, and some people will pay you actual currency for them, but they won't buy you a ham sandwich at the corner deli, or anything at all like that. Bitcoin never will.
1:14 'against bitcoin' - pure speculative value - highly volatile - going up because its going up. Its value is due to the failure of national governments to protect the value of their paper currency.
Jevon's Paradox is the economic formulation of the Maximum Power Principle. *Any* Ecosystem will always be governed by MPP. We can't separate ourselves from bio-physical reality.
But now geology is governing commodities. The reserves are depleting, discovery of new reserves are rare. The reason is that the geology of formation of commodities has been well understood for 7 decades. New discoveries are few, small and expensive to produce.
Definitely using ethical design science could change things due it's effect as a way of using technology. We can effect financial systems with technology. Using appropriate high tech and low tech is key to our extinction pending...
They only spent a minute talking about the FED, they did not talk about the SWIFT system, how compound interest and how fractional banking QE works... They did not talk about the war economy in depth... I stopped at 59:53. It needs more substance
... and another thing: Bitcoin being a game changer because of it's financing and use of stranded energy sources is just plain fucking ....myopic ... and this angry steel worker is making an extra-taxing effort to remain polite here...
A few months back, you did an interview with Rachel Donald at Planet Critical. Not sure why that topic lingered in my mind, but ended up doing a script, which was meant to be a story line for the game I was thinking of programming. Anywho, it just ended up as a mock interview without any sort of AI animation I was thinking of adding: ua-cam.com/video/iNdbqcux8k0/v-deo.html
Interesting to hear a pro-Bitcoin argument post-FTX. I kinda thought that was going to be the end of cryptocurrency, but here it is at all-time highs. I guess that means it's probably here to stay, for better or worse.
Maybe do some research before you comment, Just Stop Oil is about No More Oil Licenses, and, they are more than aware that everything we use is oil related. 🤦
Neither of you understand sovereign debt. First of all, governments don't print money for the most part. They credit accounts. Secondly, borrowing to fund operations is an entirely unnecessary choice that occurs AFTER spending. Issuing treasuries, for example, really only serves to further enrich already wealthy people. It has no good social purpose. If the U.S stopped this foolish practice, the federal debt would immediately start decreasing and no austerity is necessary. Anyone who believes austerity is a good government policy is a fool.
what you say is technically true - but a) 80-85% of money is not created by government but by private banks, b) the government 'spending' helps eg USA but does not help (and actually hurts) all the countries in the world pegged to the dollar who CAN'T spend money into existence c) your comments are wrt money and ignore the calls on energy and ecology that the new money is and d) it ignores the impact on peoples perceptions, trust, rates and the currency -especially people in other nations. MMT is 'not even wrong'
@@thegreatsimplification Private debt is a separate issue and is categorically different. I agree with you regarding private debt. Other countries being pegged to the dollar is also a separate matter. They do not have sovereign currencies and they should. Money supply expansion is not, in and of itself, a call on energy and ecology. The two are distinct. Saying that MMT is not even wrong is laughable. The core of MMT is simple accounting. It describes how a sovereign monetary system actually works. It cannot be disputed. You're raising a strawman and put forth a caricature of MMT depicted by ignorant critics. At most, you can dispute some policy implications of MMT, but those are also typically caricatures. About the only thing all MMT economists agree on in terms of policy is a federal jobs guarantee. Try interviewing Warren Mosler, Randall Wray, or Stephanie Kelton to get a better understanding.
@@nickdelonas my point is that MMT - as far as it goes -is accurate and would have been helpful had more people understood it 30 years ago -we'd have made better decisions. Given what we face w energy depletion and eco-cide, MMT is not so relevant. I'll make a video on this soon. Thanks for your comments
@@thegreatsimplification It's not entirely irrelevant. MMT economists like Steven Hail are focused on how best to fund projects that will mitigate the effects of climate change, for example. Also the worry that sovereign debt prevents a country like the U.S. from taking meaningful action is a problem. I watch every single one of your videos. Don't think I don't love ya, because I do. But I think you're a bit off on the sovereign debt issue. If you haven't read it, this is a must read, seminal work: www.moslereconomics.com/wp-content/powerpoints/7DIF.pdf
@@thegreatsimplificationMMT explains how sovereign "debt" is a misnomer and not a boogeyman that will destroy us. Educating people about debt blindness should be as relevant as countering other forms of blindness. I've followed MMT for over a decade ~ myths about sovereign "debt" will never die. And these myths are consuming people's time, including yourself.
wow ... i am big fan but this was terrible. bit coin was developed for money laundering. sure, has benefits but look at its origins. and while Lyn's views on including energy in the analysis is great, there is no recognition of ecological economics which put all of this in perspective ..... with that said, i am still a fan
I agree that bitcoin etc is shady, almost certainly unsustainable. I also think it's important and increasingly rare for us to listen attentively to people who hold diverse opinions, aligned, partially aligned, all the way to radically different. We may disagree on many points but we might also learn something, either directly or implicitly by stimulating a fresh perspective or line of thought. I think it's a mistake to identify too much with our opinions, reject those who have different views or to assume that we are 100% correct in our thinking. No-one is.
@@blindpuppy7786 there is science and then opinion. So, i agree with you to listen to diverse opinions. But, nate is acting more in a science mode, so my critic is based on this and not just listing to opinions .....
Haha, bitcoin uses "wasted energy" is about thr dumbest argument yet. That energy was made / burned / created to mine bitcoin. This is some silly greenwashing.
The statements and arguments from this guest are made in the spirit of complexity. Since the whole shebang is as strong as its weakest link I don't bother much knowing.
Bitcoin is a better decision as a culture. So much of human relationship is downhill of our corrupt expansionary monetary system. Opting out of that system by adopting a Bitcoin standard is a socially positive petsonal decision.
@jordanchiaruttiniREALTOR and that's when no one is using the dumb thing cause it's not actually backed up by any authority that enough people trust. Imagine if bitcoin was transacted as much as visa. It's a libratarian myth for people who don't understand how societies work.
@@jordanchiaruttiniREALTOR That is energy that would otherwise be wasted such as methane that would otherwise be flared off at wellheads, excess hydro during rainy spells. On conventional grids it enhances renewal energy development since it helps with grid stabilization. Bitcoin's energy use will not increase with greater adoption. New random number generating specialized computers are coming online soon that will greatly reduce bitcoin's energy needs as well as supply random numbers that are crucial for the operation of much of modern tech. Also, compared to the energy used by our current monetary system, bitcoin's usage is a miniscule amount. It's better money in every way. Don't jump to conclusions without proper research. Don't be salty about not adopting it sooner. Just learn how to deal with its volatility and start saving it for your future. Oh, and it was not designed for, nor will it ever be transacted like VISA. Small transactions will be transacted on sidechains such as Liquid. You don't use Fedwire to buy coffee, so it is silly to talk about a reserve asset such as Bitcoin (which already is more efficient than Fedwire) and which provides almost instant final settlement to VISA which takes a month to settle and charges higher fees than Liquid.
Lyn is absolutely brilliant. Her book Broken Money is a 10/10 must read and gift to others.
Thanks I first met her in Vancouver she was very young and some how we were talking after the conference, my buddy was with me and we both talked and somehow I could hold up a conversation with her, any how my buddy looked at me after not saying anything for a few hours, he said to me with a funny look, she is the smartest person he ever heard talking, then he said it would be impossible for her too lie , I so believe that
You are very lucky people to have gotten to spoke with her😊👍
Lyn is absolutely Amazing 🙏🙏
Great another good person. Love the part where Lyn talks about cancer and energy in the same sentence, she on to something here in the type of energy we feed our bodies, the health systems don’t seem to care about this, she’s obviously a human being that understands and cares. Keep it up Nate and Lyn and thank you for your enquiry efforts.
Another outstanding conversation, thanks again Nate. Lyn mentioned at the end she was interested in new power tech and also small nuclear reactors. It would be really good to hear what else she had to say down that line since so much of these conversations hinge around energy. I also like her positive take on our ability to invent and adapt. Will now add her to the list of important people to follow and personal choices to make thanks to you. We can be better, why not.
This was an amazing interview. Lyn is quite an astonishing person. The world could use many more people like her. She has a fascinating wisdom.
She did say one thing that caught my attention - if everything goes well then...
There are many positive ways that an enlightened humanity could make this world a better, more sustainable, more equitable planet if it weren't for human greed and power dynamics.
I'm all for doing whatever we can for as long as we can to shift things in that positive direction. That said looking at how other animals drain their ecosystem to collapse, looking at how past civilizations have exhausted their resources and collapsed, looking at the trends and the growing conflicts in our mostly business as usual world my vision for the future sadly is a civilizational train wreck.
After that train wreck some small semblance of humanity will still eek out an existence but it will be a tiny fragment of today and our current civilizational memory will fade and then be forgotten.
I just cannot imagine that there will be a great simplification. We are not collectively wise enough to do that. It probably won't be any kind of soft landing. Sadly it will more likely look like a fall off a cliff and a crashing onto the rocks below.
I continue to do my best to do my best in this world. The Buddhist in me accepts and acknowledges impermanence while holding space for the present moment and a journey that holds life in the beautiful wonder and reverence it deserves.
Thank you Nate for the great work that you do and your contributions to making the world a better place. We need more of you and your sensibilities too.
Great words. I think The Great Simplification can either be via a trainwreck, or through managed degrowth. Either way, it looks like one of them is heading our way. 🙏🌍🌱
17:25 "Relying on centralization works until it doesn't." Brilliant. And of course this is the argument for decentralization, which not-so-coincidentally is the way of the world when centralization breaks down. Just like Tainter said back in 1988, when a nation or empire collapses, regional polities arise.
Lyn Alden's book "Broken Money" is one of the best books I've read on money and the history of ledger systems
What's you summary or conclusion on the book Broken Money?
oh, wow, didn't expect Lynn Alden on your pod, cannot wait to listen on next long drive!!!
Greatly appreciated Nate’s pushback on Bitcoin with “does it alleviate (or actually worsen) inequality?” - That is always the right question to ask! Would love to hear Lynn in a future roundtable episode specifically on the subject of crypto currencies and energy.
Usually topics relating to finance is really hard to listen to. It kind of hits my brain like a brick wall. Currently, she's the only one who makes it somewhat more palatable to listen to.
I absolutely love Lyn! She's clear, well researched, and careful about what she says❤
Definitely have her back. 3 hour roundtable!
Lynn is awesome!!
So glad you have Lyn on. Brilliant analyst.
At the 42 min. mark. I've been a believer in MMT for 12 years. I'm a doomer when it comes to climate change. So, Lyn asks what will the world be like in 20 years? My answer is civilization will have collapsed because the rate of temp increases is accelerating at an accelerating rate, now. The rates will accelerate because we will do nothing to cut fossil fuel use and at east 2 tipping points will be tipped in the next 20 years. Note that the methane release tipping point has already been tipped. So, the US Gov. debt is not a problem. The problem will be that the real resources will be insufficient to meet the needs to sustain life for the American people. If this is true, then it does NOT matter how sustainable the debt was. The US will be unable to produce or buy enough food, stuff, and heating/cooling to keep all its people alive.
Basically, the real resource problems that Lyn thinks will make the debt bubble burst, would always be the problems that would crash the US economy, no matter what the other situations are.
Show me how I'm wrong.
Astute points. I think dieoff is in our future. In 2012 I calculated it would start sometime between 2020 and 2030. I am still on that timeline
Thanks Lyn and Nate!
00:00 - Lyn Alden Works and Info, Broken Money
06:02 - Decades with less available energy
06:45 - ESG
08:30 - Kiril Sokoloff, Jeremy Grantham, Luke Gromen
09:03 - Debt and the Economy
09:38 - Just Stop Oil
09:43 - Oil’s centrality to our current lifestyles
10:49 - Long term energy consumption
15:31 - Money and the Mechanism of Exchange, William Stanley Jevons
16:04 - Cross Atlantic Telegraph Cable
17:02 - Disruption of the money system in WW1
18:02 - Decentralization in Bitcoin
18:34 - Decentralization in communication
19:29 - Jevons Paradox
21:53 - Majority of the world lives in developing countries
23:43 - Currency debasement
27:16 - Top 1% own 50% of the wealth, and top 10% own 90% of the wealth
29:10 - Arbitrage
31:10 - Average annual money supply growth in the US is ~7%
32:10 - Technology deflationary effects
33:43 - Business expenses that were historically offset by low interest rates no longer being supported
34:45 - NVIDIA, S&P 500 Energy
35:44 - Inflationary/Disinflationary cycles
36:26 - Nifty Fifty
37:28 - Dot Com Bubble
39:07 - Modern Monetary Theory
39:40 - Stanley Druckenmiller - US Gov debt vs total unfunded liabilities
40:24 - Debt Clock, Ross Perot
44:53 - Emerging Markets
45:14 - Nixon Shock
50:39 - Fiscal Dominance
51:10 - Banks role in money creation
57:40 - Jeff Booth
1:09:17 - Small Modular Nuclear Reactor
1:14:52 - 2013 unintended chain splits, 2018 bitcoin bug
1:16:55 - Alex Gladstein
1:17:12 - Central Bank DIgital Currencies
1:17:31 - Nigeria CBDC adoption
1:18:11 - Bitcoin adoption by country
1:26:45 - Bitcoin concentration of use
1:28:10 - China and bitcoin
1:31:30 - Yield Curve Control
I bought her book based on this episode
Actually a good chunk of the books I buy and read come from this podcast haha
She’s incredibly smart I bet her book will teach me a great deal
Mine too haha
The "Broken Money System"...misses the point by trying to compare real ( commodity ) money,
while citing inflation after WWI and the 20X leverage within the gold standard due to fractional reserve
strategies.
This neglects the reality...( see Lords of Finance ) when the only real players were the U.S. ( now the number 1
productive economy and owning 80+ of the world's gold ) and Great Britain struggling to preserve the
value of the "pound sterling", France aspiring to join them, and Germany, the means by which they expected
this to happen due to terms of the Versailles Treaty that required reparations in gold.
Enter de facto fiat in 1934, with gold confiscation by FDR...in the attempt to end the deflationary cycle that reached
its inflationary peak in 1926 at 112% where all the wealth flowed to the U.S. as its market represented the highest
rate of potential return. This money was also highly leveraged, and the N.Y. Fed was in control of U.S. money policy.
This also changed in 1934, as the Fed failed to fulfill its initial promise of preventing "bank runs"...as the majority
of banks were "local community banks" and prevented by law from expanding beyond these limits. As a result these
banks failed, and the inter-state banks survived leading to the current system, with a power shift to Fed. central committee,
although the NY Fed still has outsized influence due to its proximity to Wall St. ( further details on this as well
as a point-by-point examination of the "new deal" can be found in FDR's Folly: How Roosevelt and his New Deal Prolonged
the Great Depression by Jim Powell )
The deflationary cycle ended in 1939 when the value of the dollar settled at an inflated value of 67% of the 1860 and 1897 dollar,
in that, it now cost $1.67 to purchase what $1 did in those years.
At this point, in real terms, U.S. currency was fiat, even though it bore the fiction that the Federal Reserve and U.S.
notes claimed they were redeemable in "lawful money". This was a lie...as no redemption was possible. The con was
extended to foreign nations by Bretton Woods in 1944...where the lie was that the dollar was "as good as gold".
Redemption was discouraged using various incentives including that of the eurodollar, vs that of the U.S dollar...
and the fact that the U.S. was still the greatest industrial producer and its largest creditor.
Inflation, however, became a permanent feature from 1939 forward, and economic decline in terms of
the percentage of world production began in 1950. Inflation, like compounded interest, is an exponential
function and by 1970 had reached 300% ...and did not go unnoticed...and attempts to redeem it began in March
of 1971. The $35. by law fixed official price of gold...meant that redemption would require 4x the gold, for
each dollar of U.S. currency...and "redemptions" were suspended in Aug. temporarily. ( permanently )
The dollar now became the world's fiat reserve currency...gifted to the world, and since the U.S. has
effectively asserted dominant control over all the exchange mechanisms, including the IMF and World Bank,
the future to the inevitable present began.
The next decade saw another 113% inflation rate, so total inflation from 1939 was over 600%, as "fiat"
was now fronted with the cost of "commodities", oil in particular...and the U.S. became a debtor nation
in real terms in 1971, and by 1984, the largest debtor nation.
At present, the national debt is 34 Trillion, with 8.2 trillion owed to foreign entities and this number does
not include the future committed yet not counted ( unfunded ) liabilities.
For those still confused by "fiat" vs. real commodity money ( gold ) and quoted "inflation" numbers...
the government calculates cumulative inflation at about 2200%, while in terms of gold, this rate is
over 5000% at the 1974 official price of gold of $42. and change, up from the 1971 price of $35. and gold/silver
are still "lawful money" in the U.S.
It also must be pointed out that under the gold standard, the U.S. became debt-free in 1836, when Jackson
prevented the renewal of the Second National Bank's charter. Printed money to finance the Civil War, resulted
in 95% inflation and then entered a deflationary cycle that lasted until 1897, when the dollar regained
its 1860 value. Prices dropped precipitously, with oil falling from its 1865 price of $16/12 brrl, to less
than $1. where it stayed until 1909, while steel and rail freight dropped by 50%, all while the dollar
was gaining value, and the U.S. became the world's dominant economy.
Even for the most dense, the destructive nature of fiat should be clear, as are its beneficiaries...
government ( non-productive ) and the F.I.RE sector ( non productive ) and all who have
become dependent on government. ( non-productive ) ( see Michael Hudson )
The flight of fiat into commodity assets of any kind is confirmed in this interview...and that it can
be done with fake money is even more ludicrous. Bitcoin is just another cog in the fake money scheme,
as are all financial advisors since it simply perpetuates a doomed system, until the music stops.
This interview lasts 1.40, but lacks the above context...adding that context, reduces its validity to
one that is highly questionable...or should.
I like listening to Lyn, both for the engr/finteck & bitcoin views but also her recognition of distributed solutions being the future as opposed to centralization.
Cool, I know Lyn most from financial discussion, glad to see the discussion broadening to Nate's work.
I assume all of it is shortly about to fold into each other😂
The talk is fluid and technical, and a lot of topics are touched. What is missing for me are aspects of value and ethics. So it leaves me kind of unsatisfied.
Congratulations on your intellect, decency and ethics. Sorely lacking in most economics, along with (as this one) a flawed understanding of physics and limits to growth. I notice population overshoot didn't come up, probably because understanding it would destroy most of her beliefs.
Economics is not a science it’s just a prop for capitalism and makes the poor poorer.
Watching now. Was looking forward to this one. Thank’s!
Thanks to Lyn and Nate!
Whenever I hear your discussions of finance with guests, your questions of SHTF moments nearly never seem to get analyzed in the dismal spirit of the question. It is as if the world of debt has its own reality divorced from planetary limits. It may be deduced that money itself, as an amoral digital mediator, allows humans to stop choosing doing to do right and instead choose unaccountablility. Funny to think that. We can count money but avoid seeing its use having nearly universal negative impact on the greater reality, the one that really matters and exists.
I’m trying. Each discipline focuses on their expertise. Climate and ocean scientists are not fluent in financial alchemy and vice versa. It’s changing but slowly. Hence, this work
@@thegreatsimplification You are a thought leader in my book. Holding the space for others, not being overtly pressuring or argumentative, is a great talent (or perhaps a learned skill). Still, it does come down to attention and the limitations of words and time. A question that I would like to have asked though is whether a guest has the dry mouth, can't sleep, I am about to cry, this is a desperate moment, there is no way out realization.
@thegreatsimplification It is interesting, though, that nearly all of your guests recognize & have voiced the need for balance, community, connection with nature and loved ones as primary human needs, regardless of what their expertise is. I heard Lyn say it, as well. Great interview!
@@anitashore5050 A generally good and realistic acknowledgment. But is balance now even possible? I believe this is a taboo subject. Even if I am in my extremity or if my surroundings cannot support a community, to say nothing of maintaining a functional ecosystem, I will still do all I can within my power to stay alive and keep what I have. It doesn't much matter the costs to nature or the community if I am so ego driven. Maybe I will see a light at the end but by then it will have been too late to make amends.
"There is no human future that is compatible with a single fungible global currency and interest and most of human access mediated by private property" -- Daniel Schmachtenberger
Yes, money definitely "allows humans to stop choosing doing to do right and instead choose unaccountablility". Jared Diamond says civilizations collapse when their elites can shield themselves, which money somewhat permits and international money, migration, and trade really permit. In particular, Mukesh Ambani & Narendra Modi do not care if India has 100,000,000 wet bulb deaths in the 2050s, because their families can move much of their asset to Canada, Russia, etc.
Also, all finace people think fairly short term.
Great interview, would love to have Lyn back for another interview and a round table!
Very interesting podcast. Lyn Alden is obviously a real brainiac - not just financials/technology/crypto but actually bringing her insights down to the gut level. Take a break from work, get some sunshine, eat whole foods, etc.
My show notes.
Lyn Alden's prescriptions:
1) Start with your personal life before moving up to the global level
2) Find a place where you like to live and can have balance with the others around you
3) Declutter and reduce energy consumption
4) Solve friction points with the resources you have
5) Get value out of things by human connections
1:04:50 Nate: "Do these financial podcast and videos just converge on biophysical reality?"
Lyn: "Technologies are determining the outcomes to a certain point because they change the incentive structures, but not totally."
My comment: There is a demographic flow that is obviously apparent to Lyn and Nate. They approach it from the financial and energy angles. I approach it from the anthropological and farming angle. But it is the same flow. The same flow - I might add - that has been going on since 1966 or thereabouts.
"Bitcoin is optimized to use stranded energy." Brilliant insight!
Hmmm. How is it that not using bitcoin is blamed both for too many empty houses in Egypt and too few available houses in the US?
Excellent one Nate.
Im one of the few collapse-aware that sees a future for Bitcoin. Lyn was my introduction to BTC, shes brilliant.
Land Banking
Land Banking
Isn’t over supply
We have thousands of empty properties in UK due to land banking.
If they rented it out , the supply would make the rent go down which would devalue the property value itself. So it’s more profitable to merry go round the sales and increase virtual values, rather than actual use.
We need actual use value not virtual use value.
Everyone is being crippled by this .
It’s clogging up.
Small businesses can’t pay enough for employees to pay these rents.
Yet empty properties are allowed to void.
I like this analysis because it resonates with my worldview
Lyn is excellent. Her book is very instructive.
She makes so much sense, until Bitcoin. Maybe I am just not smart enough, but I count on you, Nate, to figure that one out for me. ;)
Maybe take a look at Jeff Booth's book "The price of tomorrow"
Any chance Lyn can expand on their stance on bitcoin in this conversation in this place (UA-cam comments) ? I'm curious. I'd like to know the correlation to the many statements made here. Thx
Awesome guest! Just bought the book on the strength of this interview! It looks like a very serious heavy-duty book.
How much will Bitcoin be worth when the internet and/or electrical grid go down, as they inevitably will, if you understand the second law of thermodynamics.
Could you expand on the BTC thermodynamics issues? I don’t see the concern
@@CanadianSatoshi It's a dumb argument disguised in a pseudo intellectual format to sound more credible. The only way bitcoin goes down is if there's a global catastrophe that wipes out electricity forever, at that point only food, shelter and weapons are valuable, can't eat those gold bars, stocks and bonds either.
Bitcoin has a very well crafted consensus mechanism for situations like this, with incentives for the good of the network. If the WHOLE WORLD lost internet for a day, nothing would change once it came back, because any fraudulent changes would be rejected by automatic consensus.
Bitcoin should die long before then. It's security declines with halvings, so expect double spends in the 2030s. Also, bitcoin miners cannot provide the same security when using intermittent power, like solar. And so many more vulnerabilities.
I don't invest in bitcoin for Armageddon I invest in metals and canned food for that. For hyperinflation prep I buy metals and bitcoin.
Right. Your bank card is much safer and more reliable in that scenario.
Fixing the money is a prerequisite for fixing the soil
Ya…. ‘Cause that will stop the oceans expansion and the 1,000 foot king tides coming
Lol
Farming and Forestry, Water and Energy are long-term investments in security, societal health and wealth.
The case for 1000 foot waves is academic and containing climate change is a global challenge not supported by the international oil industry and warmongering?
@@simonmasters3295
"It returns all displaced materials to their inertial place of origin or it gets the oceans and dies again."
-"Silence of the Physics"
Earth is facing very very near term ~100 meters of sudden ocean rise.
Climate models virtually ignore increasing pressure and 200 thousand years of anthropogenic thermal-mass (including heat & CO2) in the oceans.
The models largely ignore Earth's spin and Gravity as well as mass movement to the tune of ~100Billion tons of material per year from deep underground to the surface.
The ocean water rising will be radioactive as the ~1000 nuclear reactors around the world go supercritical (they can not cool as atmospheric and ocean temps increase) do to increasing thermal mass and pressure.
It takes some 80 years to "shut down".
There simply is no choice.
The real "pandemic" is civilization. It is being removed as such b/c of the layers of relational physics which bring about the envelope of physics/harmonics for Life to exist.
Humans have destroyed this envelope's ability to resonate within tolerances for that particular harmonic envelope to exist. Thus a
change of state is occurring wherein a new stable thermodynamic resonance will exist that will not support complex life from what has been for 100's of millions of years.
Many models (much as the IPCC) virtually if not completely ignore correlating changes in atmospheric pressure; ocean stratification and motion changes; exchange rates of various thermal mass gasses between ocean & atmosphere... etc.
It also is miss-applying the "Boltzmann" principal of "radiative energy" -as relating to and with the above et-all.
"Heat" cannot "radiate" to space from Earth in the way being described in many models. This would violate laws of thermodynamics which includes "Black Body radiation".
~90% of ALL anthropogenic thermal-mass since slash & burn and pointy sticks is in the oceans.
What you are observing is "red-shift" as heat follows the path of thermal-mass capacitance (largely into the oceans).
The most relevant affect/effect is logarithmic ocean expansion.
This conserves angular momentum from the wave/particle outward.
Lectures by Walter Lewin. They will make you ? Physics.
1.2M subscribers
#123 - Mistery of Energy Loss Solved - Physics Works
Relativistic Doppler Shift ua-cam.com/video/F2FGkrlaCAc/v-deo.html
Amplified Arctic Warming Causing Stratospheric Polar Vortex Stretching and Extreme Cold Outbreaks (Paul Beckwith) ua-cam.com/video/0ERa7j5Pm5A/v-deo.html
All civilizations have collapsed into sand b/c of desiccation of the local environment.
Bio-Complexity has been exponentially decreasing since pointy sticks & fire.
the IPCC is vastly understating what is happening.
As much as 80% of all non-human or agricultural life is already gone and going faster.
There is only about 3% of Earth's forests left.
~90% of All anthropogenic thermal mass since slash & burn (including heat and CO2) is in the oceans.
Ocean Temperatures for Last 700000 Years ua-cam.com/video/5YKeSI2g3z4/v-deo.html
There is no mistake as to temp increase overall b/c of humans.
Physics of Life & Climate Change:
Angular Momentum Demo: Hoberman Sphere(Professor Boyd F. Edwards): ua-cam.com/video/64t-dVtDwkQ/v-deo.html
Solving one of the toughest Indian exam questions (angular momentum & velocity)
Tibees ua-cam.com/video/TxXuo9ukVxU/v-deo.html
Any mass moved from one distance radially from center mass of a rotating system to a grater radial distance from said center mass alters
the inertial state of said mass and effects angular momentum of the entire rotating system.
Now visualize oil; water; iron; gold; lead; tin; copper; coal; sand; rare earths; zinc; mercury; silver; etc...
All having been relocated from one inertial state relative to Earth's core & barrycentre (solar system center mass).
The Entire solar system reacts to conserve angular momentum - All climate models can be derived from this albeit with much more alarming accuracy.
In effect the Earth / moon experience an ever increasing force inward (towards center mass) This causes "bobbing" and more pronounced chandler's wobble etc.
"Circular Motion" - Prof. Lewin: ua-cam.com/video/mWj1ZEQTI8I/v-deo.html
Remember to think of Earth as separate densities & rates (core; plasma/molten-fluid; mantle; oceans; atmosphere) when you watch the video or while reading this comment.
Rotation and Torque - Physics 101 / AP Physics 1 Review with Dianna Cowern
ua-cam.com/video/D3_0vHJVHHo/v-deo.html
Angular Momentum - Physics 101 / AP Physics 1 Review with Dianna Cowern ua-cam.com/video/2WZ1PZ7imrI/v-deo.html
Gravity and Orbital Mechanics - Physics 101 / AP Physics 1 Review with Dianna Cowern ua-cam.com/video/IjqKcGK-ccY/v-deo.html
Torque: Crash Course Physics #12 (CrashCourse) ua-cam.com/video/b-HZ1SZPaQw/v-deo.html
The Brachistochrone, with Steven Strogatz (3Blue1Brown) ua-cam.com/video/Cld0p3a43fU/v-deo.html
Simple Harmonic Motion - Physics 101 / AP Physics 1 Review with Dianna Cowern ua-cam.com/video/Z92-7AY_S1A/v-deo.html
Circular Motion - Physics 101 / AP Physics 1 Review with Dianna Cowern ua-cam.com/video/cpy4V2Bk0jc/v-deo.html
Earth is being desiccated at an increasing rate. Earth loses H2 leaving behind the O due to accelerating thermal-mass loading of both atmosphere and oceans.
Ocean rise due to thermal mass increase is logarithmic (expansion).
Ocean Heat Content (Science Talk With Jim Massa): ua-cam.com/video/cn3B9apcnQA/v-deo.html
Lectures by Walter Lewin.They will make you Love Physics.
1.22M subscribers
8.01x - Lect 32 - Heat, Thermal Expansion ua-cam.com/video/mAAvp5YzWxk/v-deo.html
CO2 is correlative and contributing NOT the prime causation.
"Green" or "clean" energy is a myth.
Civilization is orthogonal to Nature (actual reality).
Nature is the Universal purpose b/c of complexity and thermodynamics.
"The Earth is precious. If you alter it you will ruin it." -Lao Tzu
The above Physics proves this statement without question.
The "moral duty" is to protect; preserve; and nurture Natural complexity which IS in relative free-fall. The hubris one displays by predicating "civilization" and or humans is disturbing.
Physics Support:
Earth is a Dynamo: ua-cam.com/video/fqmFYux5dXw/v-deo.html
For every milligram of material that changes it's inertial state/position relative to core and mantle there is added cavitation system wide that translates to CC/heat
PhysicsGirl Cavitation: ua-cam.com/video/jbgvQNhFDTo/v-deo.html
Earth's Plate Tectonics May Be Actually Driven By The Moon, Study Suggests
Anton Petrov
ua-cam.com/video/FPnmZclKevs/v-deo.html
Humans extract&relocate ~30Billion Tons of material/yer not includingice melt.
Science Talk With Jim Massa - Antarctica, Greenland's Ice Loss ua-cam.com/video/V9Imo0DUqUQ/v-deo.html
Glaciers Are Disappearing Almost As Fast As You Can Ski Down Them | Climate Games
Physics Girl ua-cam.com/video/CNAWnZ49QhU/v-deo.html
Tech weighs more than all organisms (Science Talk With Jim Massa): ua-cam.com/video/4xU-HiT3XJw/v-deo.html
Black Bear News (Kevin Sandbloom)
www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/22/worlds-consumption-of-materials-hits-record-100bn-tonnes-a-year
Blackbody Radiation, Modern Physics, Quantum Mechanics, and the Oxford Comma | Doc Physics
(Doc Schuster)
ua-cam.com/video/GgD3Um_f0DQ/v-deo.html
Earth's Polar Drift Acceleration: (Anton Petrov) ua-cam.com/video/OxiF8YQju2g/v-deo.html
Earth's Magnetosphere is Creating Water on the Moon (Anton Petrov) ua-cam.com/video/N5qkjDjo2QI/v-deo.html
Earth Seems To Be Wobbling On Massive Gravitational Ripples (Anton Petrov)
ua-cam.com/video/-JftpW2--54/v-deo.html
Surprising Reason For Mercury's Large Iron Core - Sun's Magnetism (Anton Petrov)
ua-cam.com/video/sesmvcWnUos/v-deo.html
New Theories on the Origin of Life with Dr. Eric Smith
ua-cam.com/video/0cwvj0XBKlE/v-deo.html
@19:00 Convecton cool rock -->hotmolten
@~14:00+ Solar Radiation and the planetary atmosphere
Crystal's Edict
"The Point" -Is so far reaching that it is nearly impossible to say in words. Speaking and lecturing or listening to speaking and or
lecturing about "living; life/Nature" are mostly just received as some kind of esoteric truth and a longing for something more meaningful.
The actual meaning of the same Truth is that only Heaven exists and humans are the only thing lost to it and from it. Servitude to Nature
alone is the only road to redemption. Inside or outside. Death / life are just misnomers, change of state. The Purpose remains constant.
One Soul many faces. No one form is superior to another. Civilization it's self is the cause of all life's destruction. Accepting this as
some kind of necessary phase or step TO something is delusion. Now is always constant. All and every essence is always dying & being born.
Action is now. Preservation of complexity for the sake of All beings NOT civilization at all And not humans first
1billion humans to dismantle all infrastructure and returning ALL mined/drilled materials to their inertial place of origin by order of density and toxicity.
1billion humans to create "Earth-Ship" type self generating environments from as much earthen material as possible. As many species as possible must be able to migrate to & from these ....
All the rest to support the the first two.
One Soul Many beings /faces/species
Crystal's Law
I've recommended that Nate have Jeff Booth on the show. Lyn mentioned him in this show. Come on, Nate, get Jeff Booth on the show.
Yeah nobody hits deflation and everything going to the price
Of marginal cost to production
Extreme deflation of a i and the health of robotic labor
And the great Bitcoin repricing
Jeff is very energy blind. In his book he says solar solves everything. I like him but he knows nothing of limits to growth.
Really don’t see where this conversation with Lyn Alden fits in with your tenet for preparing for a world with less energy.. Modern money is the root of all evil. When energy is seen to be on the downward slope of M.King Hubbert’s bell curve money is not going to resolve survivability, only those who’ve prepared and practice self sufficiency will survive. Apart from burning physical money don’t see how it can resolve for a lack of energy. A new social contract will need to be made🤔
What do you mean by modern money? The current monetary system is about to be disrupted by bitcoin. I think that is highly relevant as the current monetary system is the root problem as you described it. Good money and a healthy monetary system is essential as it is the foundation to how we allocate resource in our civilization. Bitcoin is good money by all measures. It will heal our money system and lay the foundation for the betterment of civilization. In conclusion Lyns expertise is highly relevant to the topics discussed on this channel and further discussions with her should be had.
And btw Bitcoin is the new social contract you are talking about.
@@yannik1679 It’s not part of any social contract I’d consider to fair or sustainable.
Even Nate Hagens seems divided on it, maybe because energy wise it’s one “Great Simplification” to far.
Lyn Alden: "The Myth of Frictionless Finance" | The Great Simplification #113”
Bitcoin View/Listen at 1:21:40 =
Nate : “I tell my friends and family that I think there’s a 50% chance Bitcoin goes to 300,000, 400,000, and 50% chance it goes to zero. So it’s because of what Governments are likely to do that I think Bitcoin probably goes up and goes up substantially. However, if that happens which I expect it will, won’t there be an absolutely gargantuan wealth and income inequality that results from that, where most people who don’t own any crypto and then there’s current whales and dolphins will effectively be trillionaires or de facto in today’s dollars?…”🤔
@@yannik1679 Lyn Alden: "The Myth of Frictionless Finance" | The Great Simplification #113”
Bitcoin View/Listen at 1:21:40 =
Nate : “I tell my friends and family that I think there’s a 50% chance Bitcoin goes to 300,000, 400,000, and 50% chance it goes to zero. So it’s because of what Governments are likely to do that I think Bitcoin probably goes up and goes up substantially. However, if that happens which I expect it will, won’t there be an absolutely gargantuan wealth and income inequality that results from that, where most people who don’t own any crypto and then there’s current whales and dolphins will effectively be trillionaires or de facto in today’s dollars?…”🤔
Alex Toffler, Future Shock. Early 70s book about much of this discussion. ShakeUp XR
Alvin, not Alex. Good book.
Brilliant analysis until the Bitcoin bit. Comparing crypto to tech companies is inaccurate and problematic: those companies produce actual products and services that average folks can own & use without being required to invest in the company -- iphones, Google Drive, EVs, etc. Bitcoin *is* the asset (a highly volatile & speculative one) and you can't use it without investing in it and then selling it. Lyn doesn't mention all the really awful things being done with crypto: human trafficking, drug sales, funding dictators, etc. I wish she had been more transparent about her own potential conflicts of interest if she has significant Bitcoin holdings. I hope you'll bring more tough questions to a Bitcoin roundtable if you do one!
Super intelligence, which Lyn possesses, transcends the physical, making Lyn Alden one of the most beautiful women on the planet.
Jem Bendell! Do it.
Bitcoin and AI use a lot of energy! Where is it going to come from? If you take the energy away from different markets then you crash the market. She starts on this @ 33 minutes in
Right now Bitcoin is basically NFTs you can spend like money and believe you're wealthy and financially stable, right up to the moment the second law of thermodynamics asserts itself, and then all you'll have is the memories of those sweet, delusional Bitcoin days.,
Stamps for the chapters…?
Great guest Nate!
If parts of the grid do go down, and you're left with islands of electricity, the Bitcoin network can still work - you could broadcast transactions over short wave radio. A receiver would pick them up and broadcast them to the Bitcoin network. Your Amex card wont work because all the existing networks have a single point of failure. Gold isnt practical because nobody has any except the central banks. I can see Bitcoin being more and more useful as the crisis deepens.
Also, the use-once-and-discard consumer economy could not have come into existence without unpegging from the gold standard in 1971 and systematically devaluing money. "Whats the point in me holding onto my money when it will be worth less tomorrow? I might as well buy this thing i dont need". Bitcoin solves this.
5:08 that's a dig at those analysis looking at the 50 times earnings stock
6:49 just straight up externalization on a patsy
13:17 political changes are local, technological change spreads everywhere
15:27 Money in the mechanism of exchange, 1875 - telegraphic innovation!
17:22 relying on centralization works, until it doesn't.
19:26 Jevin's paradox
Nate met his match here.
Lyn was right to sidestep the centralization of wealth question the host insisted on and even called a "flaw". Bitcoin has NOTHING to do with decentralization of wealth, it's about decentralization of control, of the rules of the monetary system itself.
The steelman against bitcoin is no one can explain how it exists post civilization...
But if bitcoin uses "leftover" energy, isn't that just energy that otherwise wouldn't be spent on anything? I thought that was a good thing. Saving energy by not using it on anything at all, which also saves resources. If there's not enough "leftover" energy because it gets funnelled into operating and mining crypto, won't that just mean that the claims on natural resources and energy just keep growing bigger and bigger, as more people start using bitcoin and crypto? Which then means we'll need to build out even _more_ energy/grid to be able to have this "leftover" energy available whenever, increasing the demand for even more energy. Isn't this just Jevon's Paradox? Nothing is really saved, we're just doing more and more of it. Burning more energy to make/maintain more and more digital currency which can later be exchanged in energy/resources. What am I missing here? 🤔
44:15 I don't know if it was the wrong lesson, but there is definitely many a lesson to be learnt from the last few decades. And if that is one way to think about off setting aka re-orientating or correcting that trajectory, I think there will be some interesting short and long term projects coming out of the woodwork.
47:20 and this is where education institutions have not only dropped and fumbled the ball but for many they had completely lost the field and ball where it was suppose to provide excellence in the long game. I will however point out, the ICT issue in education is still a smuggled concept under the guise of tools for the student rather than an open dialogue for how data and community can be better utilised.
49:00 oh no doubt. Unlocking the next 3 swings of the pendulum is something to aspire toward. Even if it means micro parcels of dense data is the only thing to look for when we are long forgotten and barely a loose particle being pushed along a noxious weed lineage variety. Seriously it's a life long battle.
58:10 what is it with copper other than Solomon's wealth and it's [poisonous] use for utensils. I do like it though for its symbolic nature of veering away from the doom and gloom of Nebuchadnezzar statue. Gotta tell you some as such tooth sayers should fondly bring in as an reverse bounty... lol it won't be a welcoming revelation for some folk. Ouch! 😌 that glare bouncing off ivory windows can be sooo delicate betimes.
1:11:23 [pause] Bitcoin and Bulls ... funny you mention that. I just wrote about the absurdity of such things occuring for production and how it is projected rather than generated [play]. I hear what your laying out but I don't hear how it is activated in human soul. That's okay because this is why people like Nate offer a space for divergence to gravitate toward these (flexible) types of centres.
1:22:17 I am one glass of sherry too deep when I say... The roles in govt are only as good as we design them to be through diverse education opportunities. If we recognise education is not a child minding agency, then maybe it will function as it was suppose to do. Equilibrilise the metabolism of Earth. Not just blindly strip it but also not imagining a magic Genie refilling what we rape and pillage off it's free energy aka "debt guzzling" comforts. To think we only recently came to know stagnate zones in other ways than the one side of the same stone.
1:36:45 "inter-repression" that's a strong word. Sounds like drinking at the knee of a conduit. Not quite biting the toes but who am I to ask such things of Time. Nate! You forgot to use your nudge stick. What is one thing she would want for her child to know about the world 😚🎶. Lynn!! Have you had a dialogue with Taimud Ahmad yet? Would be amazing to see you both add perspective toward Nate's discussion groups 1:38:35 that's my key takeaway too. Thank you both for a much needed open dialogue of perspective.
US has millions of condos. Second third fourth homes, yachts that sit empty 50 weeks. Ditto Americans condos etc in Mexico that are empty. All of which requires electric gas water sewage fire protection police ambulance 24x7. Corporations own millions of air b and b, vrbo, etc also
1:07 'government should be transparent' - but if describe the problem out loud, no one will vote for us.
I agree that energy is an essential for civilized cultures to continue existing, but it is not something we can go pick off of a tree...it is not "free" in terms of what it takes to use and produce. Humans need to build technology capable of changing the energy from it's *_potential_* form to it's *_kinetic_* form. Creating the machines also takes energy, as does feeding the people creating the machines...but there is a beginning and an end to this. The process begins with someone thinking. It is sustained by people who think *_and_* act...and it only ends when the thinkers stop acting.
It begins with the individual's effort to think and their willingness to act on the results. If the individual is smart enough to learn from their successes as well as their failures, the axiom "if the act is successful, the thinking is, too" is good enough as a principle for reliable action.
It's pretty concrete bound, mind you...but this is the state in which most modern people exist in. That can change quickly, though...and those changes are getting faster because of the technology you depend on to read *this* *message.*
Great to see philosophy in action... just kidding. Thinking requires some calories. Those units of energy are tremendously expensive in external energy cost for nearly all of us. Then actually doing most things uses tools, devices, transport etc. that are impossibly further out of whack with returns. You think there is a technology that puts a balance in this? The end of it is when we recognize the foolishness of growth and progress. Project life forward 30 or 40 years and see if this is not so.
Modern technology, which any pupil of mine would rightfully point out, requires energy. Not only does it _require_ energy, it requires *_more_* than the technology it replaced (the internet replaced the telephone system, television, and radio). The next stage for the internets (A.I.) will eventually require energy orders of magnitude greater than the internet itself. These are exciting times! 🤑
The point is that if the energy that sustains our modern culture were to become intermittent or unreliable, most people would find themselves needing to do the thing they've been avoiding all of their lives: they would need to actually start thinking as if they were going to act on the results.
This is easier than it sounds, and is the most important element of *_"thoughtful action."_* My friends are in full agreement about this, BTW. 😁
Most would start thinking about energy, which would produce natural questions like: what it is? how much is needed? why is it no longer reliable? why is it so expensive? All valid questions any reasonable person would ask.
"Clean energy" is a myth...which is a lie people tell in the attempt to stop an argument. We will see higher energy costs, and we will see reliability decrease. Green Energy is by fact of technology unreliable for the task it has been sold to perform. The closer to 2045 we get, the more it will cost and the less reliable it will be. There are resources on the internet to prove the facts of technology that make solar and wind power unreliable. You are invited to use Google to investigate them.
Most people do not like liars and generally avoid them when they can. This is broadly successful in face-to-face encounters, and would be almost as successful in a culture of freedom. But we do not live in such a culture, and we have none from the past to study.
We currently live in a culture where our government is lawfully trusted to be both the chief violator AND guardian of individual rights. In this culture it becomes important to listen to the liar...and to pay attention to who is taking what they say on faith. 🤨 I have no advice for people who enjoy being lied to...except maybe "go seek help." 😷
If the lies become dogma within the political class they will turn them into the laws. This is what is happening now, and this is why we will see higher energy costs and lower reliability in our future. Americans are abandoning their freedom to act because they do not want to think about it, or they like being lied to.
Of all the important things a civilized culture needs, free thinkers and risk takers are #1 & #2...in that order.
Are we in an age of free thinkers? Would anyone like to see what a Harvard degree gets you?
How many risk takers are out there? -Twitter- ...sorry "X"...is the joke that cost Musk's shareholders billions. What's the risk?
I'm afraid the culture is barren on both counts...the thinkers are cowering under their lecterns, and the risk takers are busy jumping out of planes, or cutting parts of themselves off.
The free "thinkers" are the ones enjoying a "free" education. As an example I give you the combined student body of Harvard, or Yale, or Columbia. Not a thinker amongst them. Certainly not one willing to correct the crowd...
The takers of "risk" are either driven by raw emotions or by "other-ism."
As examples I give you Elon Musk...who bought Twitter as the punchline of one of his really bad jokes, and Sam Bankman-Fried...he was accepted by the Harvard/Yale/MIT crowd as brilliant. He in fact is the definition of mental retardation. That's also something a Harvard degree will give you. 🤗
We're in for a hard time, folks...well, harder for some of us...exciting for others.
For civilized cultures to flourish they need free minds to create better ways to produce and use energy. Higher costs and less reliability means that the right thinking is not being done, and the proper risks are not being taken. If the culture has some form of free market, this would not become a full blown energy crisis. Do we have a free energy market? 🤔
An energy crisis is not caused by a shortage of energy, it's caused by a shortage of free thinkers and risk takers. We will continue to experience this "shortage" as long as we exalt emotions, and as long as we continue to use "other-ism" as our ethical standard.
There are no gods to intervene and no shortcuts to the thinking that must be done. Think, act, adjust...and defend yourself.
Jeff Booth made that brilliant point that Fiat money, printing and ever growing debt pushes the consumerism and over-consumption and over-production. Bitcoin fixes this.
Super hopeful for the future. LETS GO
I cannot envision a mechanism where 'the world' accepts Bitcoin as an actual currency and it becomes widely used by actual people. Right now it is the equivalent of wildly-priced baseball cards. You can have them, and some people will pay you actual currency for them, but they won't buy you a ham sandwich at the corner deli, or anything at all like that. Bitcoin never will.
Lyn Goat
1:14 'against bitcoin' - pure speculative value - highly volatile - going up because its going up. Its value is due to the failure of national governments to protect the value of their paper currency.
Maximum Power Principle
Jevon's Paradox is the economic formulation of the Maximum Power Principle. *Any* Ecosystem will always be governed by MPP. We can't separate ourselves from bio-physical reality.
Moloch!
She is a bitcoiner and worries about energy consumption??!!
But now geology is governing commodities. The reserves are depleting, discovery of new reserves are rare. The reason is that the geology of formation of commodities has been well understood for 7 decades. New discoveries are few, small and expensive to produce.
Definitely using ethical design science could change things due it's effect as a way of using technology. We can effect financial systems with technology. Using appropriate high tech and low tech is key to our extinction pending...
They only spent a minute talking about the FED, they did not talk about the SWIFT system, how compound interest and how fractional banking QE works... They did not talk about the war economy in depth... I stopped at 59:53. It needs more substance
It would be great if damaging stocks were not allowed to be traded, fracking would be gone in an instant 👍 How’s that for a global aspiration
Growth of Big agro farming is dependent upon the invisible/ignorance of oil supply.
It’s tragic, some farm equipment is designed to fail. blind to the energy for continuous manufacturing 😢
Finance is energy blind ua-cam.com/video/3FvKzSBSQcc/v-deo.html
It is cool to hear more about W.S. Jevons without having to read an economics book 😊
Agreed, Jed! Someone needs to take a long look at his theories.
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... and another thing: Bitcoin being a game changer because of it's financing and use of stranded energy sources is just plain fucking ....myopic ... and this angry steel worker is making an extra-taxing effort to remain polite here...
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A few months back, you did an interview with Rachel Donald at Planet Critical. Not sure why that topic lingered in my mind, but ended up doing a script, which was meant to be a story line for the game I was thinking of programming. Anywho, it just ended up as a mock interview without any sort of AI animation I was thinking of adding: ua-cam.com/video/iNdbqcux8k0/v-deo.html
Bitcoin is just the latest financial con. When I can use it at my bodega I’ll be dead.
Interesting to hear a pro-Bitcoin argument post-FTX. I kinda thought that was going to be the end of cryptocurrency, but here it is at all-time highs. I guess that means it's probably here to stay, for better or worse.
Maybe do some research before you comment, Just Stop Oil is about No More Oil Licenses, and, they are more than aware that everything we use is oil related. 🤦
Ho Hum gloss over.
I think I am smart and you think you are smart but looking at Lyn we are multiples below the breadth of how fast she thinks . Wow.
Neither of you understand sovereign debt. First of all, governments don't print money for the most part. They credit accounts. Secondly, borrowing to fund operations is an entirely unnecessary choice that occurs AFTER spending. Issuing treasuries, for example, really only serves to further enrich already wealthy people. It has no good social purpose. If the U.S stopped this foolish practice, the federal debt would immediately start decreasing and no austerity is necessary. Anyone who believes austerity is a good government policy is a fool.
what you say is technically true - but a) 80-85% of money is not created by government but by private banks, b) the government 'spending' helps eg USA but does not help (and actually hurts) all the countries in the world pegged to the dollar who CAN'T spend money into existence c) your comments are wrt money and ignore the calls on energy and ecology that the new money is and d) it ignores the impact on peoples perceptions, trust, rates and the currency -especially people in other nations. MMT is 'not even wrong'
@@thegreatsimplification Private debt is a separate issue and is categorically different. I agree with you regarding private debt. Other countries being pegged to the dollar is also a separate matter. They do not have sovereign currencies and they should. Money supply expansion is not, in and of itself, a call on energy and ecology. The two are distinct. Saying that MMT is not even wrong is laughable. The core of MMT is simple accounting. It describes how a sovereign monetary system actually works. It cannot be disputed. You're raising a strawman and put forth a caricature of MMT depicted by ignorant critics. At most, you can dispute some policy implications of MMT, but those are also typically caricatures. About the only thing all MMT economists agree on in terms of policy is a federal jobs guarantee. Try interviewing Warren Mosler, Randall Wray, or Stephanie Kelton to get a better understanding.
@@nickdelonas my point is that MMT - as far as it goes -is accurate and would have been helpful had more people understood it 30 years ago -we'd have made better decisions. Given what we face w energy depletion and eco-cide, MMT is not so relevant. I'll make a video on this soon. Thanks for your comments
@@thegreatsimplification It's not entirely irrelevant. MMT economists like Steven Hail are focused on how best to fund projects that will mitigate the effects of climate change, for example. Also the worry that sovereign debt prevents a country like the U.S. from taking meaningful action is a problem. I watch every single one of your videos. Don't think I don't love ya, because I do. But I think you're a bit off on the sovereign debt issue. If you haven't read it, this is a must read, seminal work: www.moslereconomics.com/wp-content/powerpoints/7DIF.pdf
@@thegreatsimplificationMMT explains how sovereign "debt" is a misnomer and not a boogeyman that will destroy us. Educating people about debt blindness should be as relevant as countering other forms of blindness. I've followed MMT for over a decade ~ myths about sovereign "debt" will never die. And these myths are consuming people's time, including yourself.
"More programmability make it worst in some other area [...]" Good point, but see Ergo = bitcoin 2.0!
wow ... i am big fan but this was terrible. bit coin was developed for money laundering. sure, has benefits but look at its origins. and while Lyn's views on including energy in the analysis is great, there is no recognition of ecological economics which put all of this in perspective ..... with that said, i am still a fan
I agree that bitcoin etc is shady, almost certainly unsustainable. I also think it's important and increasingly rare for us to listen attentively to people who hold diverse opinions, aligned, partially aligned, all the way to radically different. We may disagree on many points but we might also learn something, either directly or implicitly by stimulating a fresh perspective or line of thought. I think it's a mistake to identify too much with our opinions, reject those who have different views or to assume that we are 100% correct in our thinking. No-one is.
@@blindpuppy7786 there is science and then opinion. So, i agree with you to listen to diverse opinions. But, nate is acting more in a science mode, so my critic is based on this and not just listing to opinions .....
An "economist" speaking of "ecological realities"
What planet did I land on?
Plan(et) B?
Game B.
You better watch out Nate Hagens, endorsing Bitcoin!
Greenpeace death squad, signed.
Haha, bitcoin uses "wasted energy" is about thr dumbest argument yet. That energy was made / burned / created to mine bitcoin. This is some silly greenwashing.
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I stopped listening to Lyn since most of her speech is related to pumping her Bitcoin bag
Yeah, it doesn't seem like you listened to the show😏
The statements and arguments from this guest are made in the spirit of complexity. Since the whole shebang is as strong as its weakest link I don't bother much knowing.
Yep.
His Bitcoin bag*, but yeah.
Clearly you never listened to her.
Bitcoin is a better decision as a culture. So much of human relationship is downhill of our corrupt expansionary monetary system. Opting out of that system by adopting a Bitcoin standard is a socially positive petsonal decision.
Except that it uses an inordinate amount of energy to operate.
@@kvaka009 that's a misconception kpmg has some good studies about that. There are plenty of UA-cam videos as well that dispell that myth.
BTC uses about 1% of energy globally, or thereabouts. That’s staggering. Even if the estimates are off by 50%, they’re not off by orders of magnitude.
@jordanchiaruttiniREALTOR and that's when no one is using the dumb thing cause it's not actually backed up by any authority that enough people trust. Imagine if bitcoin was transacted as much as visa. It's a libratarian myth for people who don't understand how societies work.
@@jordanchiaruttiniREALTOR That is energy that would otherwise be wasted such as methane that would otherwise be flared off at wellheads, excess hydro during rainy spells. On conventional grids it enhances renewal energy development since it helps with grid stabilization. Bitcoin's energy use will not increase with greater adoption. New random number generating specialized computers are coming online soon that will greatly reduce bitcoin's energy needs as well as supply random numbers that are crucial for the operation of much of modern tech. Also, compared to the energy used by our current monetary system, bitcoin's usage is a miniscule amount. It's better money in every way. Don't jump to conclusions without proper research. Don't be salty about not adopting it sooner. Just learn how to deal with its volatility and start saving it for your future. Oh, and it was not designed for, nor will it ever be transacted like VISA. Small transactions will be transacted on sidechains such as Liquid. You don't use Fedwire to buy coffee, so it is silly to talk about a reserve asset such as Bitcoin (which already is more efficient than Fedwire) and which provides almost instant final settlement to VISA which takes a month to settle and charges higher fees than Liquid.
Lyn is great
Study Bitcoin
Deflationary, imaginary fiat...yeah that works...especially for the first ones in.
Nate: “The Future is my client”
Me: Awww 🥹🥲