Beginning Of The Rate Cutting Cycle, Time To Be Bullish? | Weekly Roundup
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- Опубліковано 7 чер 2024
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This week, we discuss are we at the beginning of a global rate cutting cycle as the ECB, BoC & SNB have all lowered interest rates. How will this impact markets in the second half of 2024? Enjoy!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - Розваги
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Marisa has the appearance of being a great authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I sent her an email outlining my objectives and also booked a session with her; thanks for sharing.
Investors are skeptical about the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans until inflation stabilizes. I'm uncertain whether to invest $150,000 into my stock portfolio. What's the best strategy to capitalize on the current market?
Investing in stocks can be a wise decision, especially if you have a reliable trading system that can lead you to fruitful days of success.
There are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist
Yes true, I have been in touch with a brokerage Advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k
@RickWatson.......... I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?
*Sharon Lynne Hart* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find her webpage and necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Do it. AMS46K already in my bags. I had a AMS46K after ( your should I buy ) and I agreed and bought. I'm looking to stack more, too.
Low income do better in inflation? are you wealthy folk that disconnected?
I've gotten so many real raises since inflation kicked off. People like me making real money and raising their standard of living raises prices.
Never heard of AMS46K. Can someone please explain? Appreciate it...
It’s a scam that I have been hearing about for a while. People flood the comments talking about it.
It’s a scam coin
Thanks Mate, the sad truth is that no one has a clue, we all react to what happens as it happens and try to analyse it but can’t predict an iota of what is going to unfold in the markets… content creators are like amplifiers, when times are good they affirm it and try to tell you why it’s good and that it’s looking bullish but then all of a sudden the market turns bearish and everyone affirms it again and try to analyse why… it’s so sad that many are so powerless and it's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 19Bitcoin in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Linda Wilburn, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
She's often interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.
@Lindawilburn
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Linda’s trade signal service.
Trading with an expert is the best strategy for beginners and busy investor s who have little or no time to monitor their trades.
The key to financial stability is having the right investment suggestions for a diverse portfolio. Many investment failures and losses happen when you invest without proper guidance.
You don't cut rates because things are good. Simple as.
low rates are bullish, but the process of cutting rates is usually bearish
@@ShatterNWO low rates are inflation. If the only way to be bullish is to get helicopter cash then how good is it really?
@@Pangora2At this point in time, inflation is far better than a deflationary depression; even though this whole things ends in hyperinflation
@@HipHopCantSaveMe we've had underreported inflation for years. It all goes into debt based assets. We require deflation to prevent society itself from turning on itself. Yes some suits will have to get real jobs. It's a sacrifice I'm willing to make
Thank you 🎉🎉🎉
The blue dart board fell down in Tyler’s room
No one knows anything except in a debt based system the money supply has to increase exponentially over time.
Inflation is good? Seriously I think you guys need to reevaluate your understanding of what inflation is. Put very simply inflation is a devaluation of your labor wage. Sorry boys but that is never a good thing. Understand that the FOMC is the driver of inflation they grow their assets at a 10% annualized rate, that is massive inflation and it increases the spread of wealth disparity.
It's a devaluation of your wage you already made and chose not to reinvest in production. No one owes you purchasing power just because you and a company had an agreement in the past.
@@dudelit6482 another way to say what you're saying is that one shouldn't expect to ever be able to save and enjoy the fruits of one's labour.
They're like fresh out of college and their professor was like "Some guy decided prices always have to move up and debt is the only way to be productive" and they were like "oh, cool. I won't question it." And here we are.
The Fed isn’t cutting rates, not sure what the title of this video is about.
ECB and Canada's have. I hear "here" in the temporal sense, not the geographical sense.
Then again I'm also prone to hearing a fundamental complement every time the navigation software tells me "You have arrived." Awesome. Thanks, Google.
A bunch of BTC children who will be crying when their tulip mania dreams go bye bye
13:18
Too many people invest with their emotions. I can tell with the comment section this week. You guys gave great insight but since it goes against people's narratives they say you’re out of touch. You guys are the ones who keep it 100%. Keep it up.
If there were ever a way to seek alpha over beta, it would be to filter out emotional moves in the market and ruthlessly exploiting it. They gave an example here of deep out of the money GME puts. But in general, selling options premium when volatility is high and realized volatility is lower is a classic case of logic > emotion.
Leave it to Mike to make an entertaining macro show, love this quartet every week. Thanks guys.
You young youtubers don't get it. This is stagflation like I lived through in the 70's. Nothing helps like experience to understand what is going on. Stop with analyzing the numbers to death. Lastly, it's jobs stupid. These micro layoffs are nothing. If/when we start seeing 500+k per month on the downside then "maybe" you'll see a good reset in the economy. Until then the economy is going to be back and forth and they will inflate their way out of this mess over the next couple of years.
You have the last part wrong. The USG/FED can not "inflate their way out of this mess"... The only way to meaningfully "inflate away the debt" is to run hot inflation for years.. The problem is bond yields and the inflation rate are ***correlated***... so if the inflation rate is 6.5% in an absurd attempt to "inflate the debt away" that means the 10 year bond yield is paying 8.5% and mortgages to buy a house are 11.5%. The 10 year paying 8%+ will bankrupt the Federal Government and 17%-22% auto loans and 12% mortgages will bring the US economy to a halt.
@@jonathantaylor6926it is called financial oppression
@@jonathantaylor6926 you're twisting the numbers and doubling what they are. Inflation stays 3-4% (stated, don't get me started on actual), Fed rates stay around 5, mortgages around 6-7. And in 5-10 years debt inflates away and the people are slowly smoothered instead of being choked.
@@erickillian313 That is not what happened in the 1970s, and I too was there. The long rate rose, a favorable mortgage was 9%, normal savings accounts were capped at 5.25% interest, and the Savings and Loan industry blew up when their spreads went negative. Yellin doesn't dare float a large issuance of long bonds with Japan and China being net sellers of Treasuries. With consumer interest rates being pegged to 5, 10, and 30 year Treasuries, a bear steepening of the curve would run the risk of adding costs to already strained households. Add to that the increase of the unemployment rate and a decrease in labor force participation, and you have the emerging recipe for stagflation.
The people who (still) believe in the Phillips Curve and Keynesian economics said then that stagflation was impossible in the 1970s, and are saying now that it can't return in the 2020s.
@@erickillian313 This is all assuming that a 5x increase in interest rates over a 2 year period (has never happened) doesn't "cause something to break" before that time
If 600k+ full time jobs have been cut, that's a lotta people without health insurance.
Oh well
Cobra, ACA, Medicaid, High Deductible Health Insurance + Healthcare Savings Account.
@@jscotthamilton5809 substantial increase in out of pocket costs
How come my neighbors are losing their jobs? Why are people defaulting on credit cards? Why are car repo's up if the economy is doing so well? A little gaslighting before the elections?
How can any endebted economy not be slowing with interest rates like these? Anyone who owes money is slowing their spending; discuss ?
It's because you individually matter not a bit. It is the collective. If big companies can still grow while firing people then the economy will be doing fine even if a particular cohort is adversely affected. Part of capitalism and decades of austerity not expanding the pie. We created a zero sum system that will only take away until there is a lone survivor.
This economy isn't made to service you and your neighbors but extract value from them to profit the owners of assets hence institutional investors, big business and asset owners, so in that sense it is doing "well." For everything else, they will engineer the numbers to serve whatever narrative they want.
Rate cuts mean now time to be bearish
People have been complaining about perma-bears, now that the turn around approaches people will be making fun of the perma-bulls.
Ehh in the short term sure, but if you’re a longer term investor in the medium to long term rate cuts are an early bullish signal for risk assets. You just need to be able to stomach the volatility that will likely come from whatever brought on the rate cuts in the first place, to your point.
Rates must rise. This will restore purchasing power of wage earners (WE). You know WE and may in fact be one of us. WE drive the US economy inasmuch as consumption is 70% of GDP. Higher rates will destroy some zombie companies who only exist on Monopoly money which holds no value. This too, is helpful in the long run as viable businesses can better deploy their capital. Once free of zombies biting at their ankles, productive use (even growth!) can take place as legit biz embraces true pricing. I said true pricing! With real money! That has actually value! Can you see where a world of truth is so alarming to politicians like Brandon?
An economy where Productivity (wages) is more valuable than passive income and trading is a stronger economy.
Great episode. The chemistry is getting better and better.
I had to subscribed cause this is so comical ...fascinated to see why our indices and the ridiculous Fomo style investing/gambling mindset is and here it is in colour. You guys really don't believe in what you are saying ? Who is you next guest , David Hunter? Cut rates when you are in trouble that is all you need to know ! Keep up the good work brilliant SNL parody
When historically has rate cutting been bullish? Literally all big risk assets’ crashes happen when rate cuts start 😂
Why are they cutting rates again?
The stock market has never been higher which means corporations have plenty of money if they want to expand their operations. Certainly don't need to expand the money supply in this environment. They certainly don't need to borrow if they want to hire more staff, they already have the money.
And inflation is still high. Cutting rates isn't going to lower that - only make it worse.
Clear as mud as to why rates should be cut - if anything, they should be raised.
It's ironic the one guy talking about recognizing that we shifted to a bull market in 2010-2022. But once the market starts to adjust to higher inflation expectations, the game becomes musical chairs. It's fun to watch but I wouldn't play at these valuations.
Didn't we just have a blowout jobs report? The SP500 is sitting at record highs. RE prices up 4.7% last year? People paying $70,000 for a digital coin? And the FED is going to cut with these conditions? For the first time ever?
The past few months have felt like the 2020-2021 zany unserious markets all over again, with all that's been happening lately, e.g. Bitcoin/crypto mania, GME/roaring kitty, and a company called SuperMicro going straight vertical. Not to mention the perpetual sense of invulnerability. And yet financial conditions are "restrictive", yeah right, lol. Fed cutting is an absurd idea right now. BTW, there's still $1T sitting in TGA and RRP so plenty of liquidity sitting out there.
The jobs numbers are fake anyways, but I do agree on the other points. The Stock market isn't reflecting a better economy, its because its been sucking up all the extra cash. They can't see the connection between inflation causing asset prices going up and stocks being one of those assets.
@@Pangora2 If Powell cuts rates he needs to open with "Look, we all know the jobs numbers are entirely fake" lol.
You have a weak economy when it's debt fueled.
Totally agree with you Mike on the energy Ai and data centers will need. I’m not that big on my electric bill going up and it will until we build out nuclear everywhere
Love this format Mike...more variety and info then what you had with Mark Yusko, although I enjoyed that as well.
Another great episode, cheers lads!
This is a better season IMO… Less conjecture, more evidentiary analysis
Just saw your videos and bought AMS46K yesterday.....its up 24% today talk about timing......Thanks ❤️
Just swapped all of my last ETH and swapped it into AMS46K. Already up a little bit. Unfortunately I have some other junk staked which won’t free up for a while. Still now I am on the train!
The proprietary alexNGMI data says 9/10 women leave me on read when I say I work in crypto. We are so early.
We need a "Jack roasts Tyler" meme segment every week!
great episode thanks, love the stuff from Tyler on Gamestop, one smart dude
Thanks guys!
AMS46K going up like crazy! Pick up around 0.67 and now it’s hit $1! I wish i had bought more!😂😂😂
inflation only hurts creditors at start of the cycle. Then it becomes 'term premia' and credit becomes unaffordable for all but most prosperous
Bought AMS46K at 0.88 each, couldn't believe my eyes when I saw it soar past 1$.
Great ep
Epic rant Tyler
Following all the previous pivots in govt rate moves, BoC and ECB move first but with a nod from the Fed. CBs are working in lockstep. It looks like BoC and ECB are leading the way, but they only do when they know the Fed will follow.
If you weaken $ n cut rates to reindustrialize America wouldnt long term UST bond yields n inflation expectations shoot up?
Western govts are trapped. They can either save the stock market (and economy) or the bond market. But not both.
Time to pay the piper after 20 years of kicking the can?
I think they will save the stock market bc much more of the economy is levered to stocks n screw the bondholders.
I see 2 things that could play out:
1) If bond yields go up n they do YCC on worlds reserve asset, capital flows out any which way it can out of the west. China n emerging markets would do decades worth of reforms in days to absorb fleeing western capital n become more investor friendly. Global rules of the game change.
2) Within US, more calls for political n financial seperation as different power centers interests no longer converge.
3) USG would sacrifice its slaves Japan n Europe so USD will still be relatively higher compared to its western "allies" in the DXY index. But lower against currencies not in the dollar index (most of the world.)
...Unless we can score a major geopolitical win or get miracle productivity gains.
in a 100% of cases its been smart to sell the first cut. This cycle will be over very early
Its not a shortage of labor but a shortage of "Box Lifters"
bingo. hence open borders
Lol. Was Felix sitting on the toilet. Sorry, just the view and background.
"Inflation is good for the people; Biden is a populist." Wrong on both counts, bye bye.
Inflation is theft pure and simple. There should be constant deflation but you cant steal deflation.
Good for the ‘haves’ with asset with asymmetric increase in value
beijing biden is a populist like lolz the mental gymnastics 🤸 of being a cult member is mind boggling to me
Jeets out chads in
Couldn't believe he said that. Thought I misheard. Inflation is good for asset owners. It's crushing anyone who doesn't, especially those of us trying to raise kids.
Objectively, which cryptocurrency is used more as money? ETH or BTC? One is borrowed against en masse via aave, used more everyday for commerce and fees, has real-world assets tokenized on it which ensures people need to have some of it move their assets around. Its like the market suffers from mass psychosis.
You guys don't see anything wrong with the discrepancy between ADP report on Wednesday and the Non-Fatm numbers on Friday?!
Adds are so prolific, I'm experimenting with AI to cut the adds.
“Inflation is good” ok Rick
Scratching my head.. the economy is strong?? Can you please unpack the numbers and not just take them at face value?
It's strong for people with "money "
I was aghast when they just read the numbers and just ran with them at face value.
acc to comments, u hit the nerve - gud stuff. every time is a little different n exponentiality which is inevitable (unless ppl want the stone age back) is hard to grasp for the mind that gets stuck in time.
aren't most of those 'new jobs' in low paying care-giving, food & beverage?
a bunch of clueless kids teaching us the virtues of free money, zero rates, sitting on their buts unwilling to do any meaningful work other than speculate with other people's money hoping to strike it rich without work. this is what a once great country has become.
Ok, boomer
The RATE of inflation is down. Inflation is still UP...a little more gaslighting?
You’re correct, but generally when an economist says “inflation is down” they are talking about year over year inflation rate. Where you said “inflation is still up” they would normally say deflation if it was not up and actually going down.
I agree with you, poorly worded in the podcast. But just wanted to hopefully help clarify a bit. Economists are somewhat disconnected, and they speak in year over year terms almost always. Hope this helps! Cheers mate!
Price level is the underlying value you care about. Inflation or deflation is the first derivative of price., The rate of inflation changing, up or down, is the second derivative.
Prices are up. Inflation went up and has now come down, but is still above the 2% target. The rate of change of inflation has been slowing as we move down.
nice dogwifhat in quinns background
You guys are ignoring Japan's situation. All the central banks in the western world are coordinating so Japan doesn't blow up. So in order for Japan to sell treasuries which will weaken the dollar, the rest of the banks need to bring up rates to push people into the dollar and U S. Treasuries to counteract it.
the financial mafia is so freaking predictable.
The good today is a bad tomorrow / it is also true the other way
Wow another "Expert" who believes the Bureau of labour statistics. Who no doubt has never seen any of the multitude of revision they made in just the last calendar year and probably has no idea on how they calculate the "data" in the first place. I haven't listened to a Saturday show for a while and now I remember why I stopped, at least the previous saturday doom monger before these Bull Bros had an idea of the actual working of the system.
Don't let Amazon's AMS46K pass you by. This is a monumental moment in history, and you don't want to be left out of the loop. Get in on the ground floor now!
Dey terk er jobs!
rate cuts are not here
Buy Bitcoin & HODL 🎉
I suggest dogecoin. Put your ira and sell your house too
@@genZetarded that’s a good idea, I don’t think people see the fundamental value in doge, however my 401k doesn’t allow doge investing.
There will be no rate cuts 🇺🇸
Whats that black stuff on your face ?REname to Bearded Blockworks
Remember when you all had the best weekly round up show in crypto? Then you got rid of Yusko and everything went to crap. Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Non farm payroll grift- Stop with the Naivety
Great video buddy 🌈 AMS46K just keeps pumping!
The ETH ETF will be a disaster.
thanks for bringing up AMS46K pair - Watching all your videos when I get notified
All these projects are not very impressive... I want AMS46K!
Got in at AMS46K at $1 but will be holding it till $50. Even at that price market cap is reasonable for its tech.
buy bitcoin 🚀🚀🚀🚀
AMS46K has all the things needed to become rich.
Thank you for the update AMS46K is done right, and waiting is part of the process.
Your predictions were correct! AMS46K will 100x once it is listed on Binance and OKX 🚀.
Came here to comment what everyone else is saying. Inflation being good and Biden being a populist is the worst take on this podcast so far
Best bet for 100x is going to be AMS46K , once its on major exchanges it will explode.
Someone needs to sit Tyler down and explain communism to him
I see AMS46K everywhere. Could someone explain what AMS46K is?
I see AMS46K everywhere. Could someone help explain what AMS46K is?
All i I know is that AMS46K and BTC will definitely pump and there's nothing anyone can do about it.
Everyone is buzzing about AMS46K; is it the biggest news of the year?
Biden is a populist? 😂😂 who tf is this guy
Thinking of swapping my OPSEC for AMS46K. I believe AMS46K is the future
One thing I know is that Amazon's AMS46K will make people rich in 2024 only if we get in now .
AMS46K will be one of the biggest projects in the future. 2024 will be on fire 🎉
Forget Shiba and Dogecoin. The next Bull runner gonna be AMS46K
AMS46K and Sauce Turbo will be huge.
Good news AMS46K will be added to Binance 🚀🚀
AMS46K will be the first crypto to 20x under a week
Buying AMS46K Today Is Like Buying Bitcoin 12 Years Ago!
who cares dude...its half time and we already know AMS46K win this game 🚀😍
Terribly misleading title!
You should be ashamed.
Rich spoilt Zers?
AMS46K is a sleeping giant, buy while it's still under $10. I expect this to at least 5X from its current position easily.
AMS46K will change lives this year. Hold for long and let's see what happen.
AMS46K is my biggest bag
Sold all my ETH yesterday and bought AMS46K