I’ve seen some similar reports. It’s concerning because if growth stalls, it could seriously threaten not just the economy but the country’s unity and integrity. There’s a lot riding on continued growth
Exactly. I mean, India has been making great strides in tech, manufacturing, and other sectors, but if it doesn’t break out of this middle-income zone, that could stall everything. And once growth stalls, other problems can pile up-like unemployment and social unrest
The middle-income trap is a tough one to break out of. It happens when a country grows rapidly but then hits a plateau because it doesn’t innovate enough or invest in areas that drive long-term prosperity. If India can’t find new growth engines, it could be stuck
Yeah, and what worries me even more is how that might affect people’s portfolios and investments. If a country’s economy is stalling, investors could lose confidence, and that trickles down to everything. We could see returns stagnate for those who have exposure to India or emerging markets in general.
That’s why I think managing your portfolio carefully is more important than ever. Global events can have such a big impact on your investments. If India falls into that trap, it won’t just be India that suffers-it’ll affect global markets
That’s why it’s a good idea to get some professional advice, right? I mean, there’s no harm in getting a free consultation from someone like Joseph Nick Cahill. He’s a Certified Financial Planner, and his expertise can help navigate these tricky scenarios. You don’t have to commit to anything, but it’s always better to get a second opinion on how your portfolio is set up
One doesn't even need to be an outstanding economist to see the writing on the wall. When fundamentalism grips a country one should expect this to happen. A person in UP is not looking for better education or healthcare but "Yogiji ne Abdul ko tight kar diya, Musalmano ko thikane laga diya"
Not only that cow is more important than a Human being. Cow and beef are exported when 30% of Kids are stunted.
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@@Danube-nu5vl This gentleman Rathin Roy was in #former Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council and HE along with any #Politically aware person from '50s to 2K so vividly know the facts that today's Bad Economic Situation is only on us because of (as beginner) Pappu-CII, his mom #SignoraMainoGhandhji plus much more (reached to Le-Dubega moment) #Luchakke Gujarati Chauthi-Pass-Raja NaMo ... some call him #Modia !!
Mr Ratin Roy speaks the plain truth. India is not focussing on real development which is imparting good education and proper health care. This is resulting in our young population becoming stunted, weak and unable to produce properly. Our unemployable youngsters which constitute the majority of the population will eventually lead an unproductive life. We are running against time and soon these youngsters will age. Young Indians must become economically prosperous before they age. Time is running out.
education which will be of no use when all manufacturing will be robotized...........china's economy has collapsed and millions of graduates have no jobs [but not being reported] and all their fancy infrastructure is now starting to decay under bankrupties due to corporatization and over centralization of enterprises.............if all the mineral resources required for a high tech parasitical western economic financial system run out humanity will return to a sustainable agrarian cum micro manufacturing society where education will be skills based and technology will only be used minimally where its benefit is optimal..........all these people have only seen economic boom but will they be alive to witness long term decay of this transient economic system due to both human and environmental factors.........if people decide tertiary education without any real use in the real world is irrelevant the entire academic system will collapse with universities worldwide disappearing........the same fate is awaiting many large corporate behemoths and so called governments
If Rathin Roy cant speak about the things being done to uplift poor people with schemes, he is delusional and part of the problem, not solution. Things need to be seen from a base of our own state.
UP and Bihar are bimaru states for a reason. Security, extortion, corruption, less demand, uneducated youth, Hindutva, religion, caste are diseases of UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
@@ShivamGupta-wf5ni Punjab is a security state. We cannot open business in Punjab. We Sikhs tried, we used to make jaali(wired mesh) but Punjab customs raided even they are not allowed. They told us( Whole village ) not to open business except farming. Ask any IAS if you know.
@@ShivamGupta-wf5ni coming back to Punjab, we have Pakistan on one side, imagine if we have a ocean. Anyhow India have zero trade , it impacts Punjab. You guys at UP and Bihar are enjoying.
I'm a Maharashtrian and I am sick and tired of my hard-earned money going to the bimaru states of the North. Worse, even after being the richest state in the country, the highest contributor to the GDP, and the highest tax-paying state, we have a crumbling infrastructure with no roads, poor rail connectivity, and poor healthcare. Why do we have to suffer for the inefficiency and incompetence of others?
Then don't complain why bhaiyyas from UP and Bihar are coming to Mumbai. The only way to reduce internal migration is to enable the so-called Bimaru states.
Rural Economy of every family has cows. What happened to cows not giving milk earlier the famer could sell his live stock were he earned 15 to 25 thousand in market. Today he cannot sell. They left on road etc. The Government has done any study's regarding their income.
You are Malyali Christian? I guess so. You have a point, a nation which worship cows has lot of NGOs doing "gou seva" (or taking care of abandoned cows) and running youtube ads for charity. We have lots of cow roaming around streets, eating whatever they get and die eventually. This is the situation of cows in India, have you seen western countries (EU or US)? you will never see such abandoned cows there, not even in middle east (where they all eat cows). We are a poor country and we remain poor. Cattle rearing is a business nothing more. All Hindus at one point were beef eating, even Vedic Rishis were eating beef, by time they changed and it become sacred. Only abundance make sacred things. Now Indians are poor they do not have wealth to take care of unproductive cows. Imagine the situation that we are trapped.
@@tinguzzYes. And the biggest double standard is they are fine with export of cows. Knowing full well they are selling them for slaughter. "If I didnt see it, it didnt happen" aah
UP and Bihar are bimaru states for a reason. Security, extortion, corruption, less demand, uneducated youth, Hindutva, religion, caste are diseases of UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
South India bhi konsa fully skilled he. But yeah it is much better in terms of jobs in South. North India...mainly UP, MP, Bihar has become a Burden on India
Guys, I am from UP and really want my state to develop as well but when I go back I see just negativity all around. There is no spirit and most negative are politicians.
@@vinsin328 he came on the promise of developing the nation like he did with Gujarat. It was not an inclusive model still we let made him our PM. The fault ultimately lies on us.
@@ageless1003 As I said, look at the data, rather than sporadic incidents of people suffering. Inclusive model, look at Multidimensional poverty index numbers. You should not be explaining yourself because you can't and would embarrass yourself in the process.
Politicians know how to divide the people and get votes but don't know how to create jobs for the people. BJP is making corporates richer and richer. People must decide now or never.
@@IronMan-nu3rb landacuisotion bill - create industries in rural areas>> less rural migration to cities>>more jobs farm laws- higher income for farmers >> more spending >> more jobs UCC - limit population growht >> more jobs avaialble waqf reform- free up land illegallly acquired>> more land for industries >> more jobs case closed
@@stallionspirit9317 Ye sab tum logo ka Day Dream he. Kuchh to kar nahin paye sirf Day Dream hi dikha rahe ho logo ko. China, Vietnam chhod ke koi kyun Rural India main ayega industry lagane
Why no discussion on how the PRC now looks likely to avoid the middle-income trap? PRC GDP/per capita will be over 13K in 2024 and looks set to break out $15K.
Beating around the bush. This country has lost the way politically economically and socially. The upper 15% is looking for an opportunity to emigrate . They are taking awsy the millions and leaving behind the wastes. I have a few suggestions : 1. Have massive investment in public education system simultaneously nationalising all private educational institutions. 2. Ban private tuition in all forms. This way everbody will get equal opportunity to compete.3. Big investment in public healthcare system and medical education . India should be able to offer good healthcare to the world. Invest in medical infrastructure. Nationalise all the private healthcare systems.4. Follow Singapore model for housing and modernisation where the government do not need to spend much for urbanisation.5. Central government should only manage defence, foreign policy, currency and communications. Rest should be looked sfter by the state governments. And lastly we donot need the IAS community. They are the root cause of the demise of this great nation. Jai hind
Modiji government performance as far as Indian Economy is considered during his term of ten years of full mandate will be listed in history as: squandered years. It’s like Failing (F-) in Math and getting B+, A+ in all other subjects. How can you go to next academic year if you Fail in Math (Economy)
Other states are going UP way too. Businesses are going out of Maharashtra, new business not coming in; Mandir masjid become everyday issues; govt schools slowly being privatized, not much attention paid to local transport like local trains, etc etc.
Dude to get trapped in middle income first we need to get into middle income level. Middle income level is 10-12K USD, where are we now? at the max 3000 USD. Indian will never even get to middle income dude, please understand. India still not integrated into global supply chain, we are not even industrialized, our speed of transport, construction, manufacturing, labor law everything is either slow or outdated . . .Indians don't need any reforms, we need free ration and a smart phone to bitch around. Only 20-30% of India in the top make some money and cease all the opportunities.
The MIC definition is quite flexible. The world bank's definition is as follows: "... GNI per capita between $1,136 and $13,845 in 2024." Some prefer to keep the lower bound at $5000. But $10-12 is on the higher side.
@@ati3473 If he has said that, then it proves he do not know a thing. Indian culture is not the problem, given a fertile environment Indians thrive easily. Indians outside India has lot of success. Some business communities inside India are also very successful, even when India was in shithole called Nehruvian socialism few communities thrived. After 1990s we see many Industrial clusters sprout up in spite of government (for example thirupur garments). If you read economic History compiled by Paul Bairoch or Angus Maddison you will realize east (Majorly China and India) were economic engines of the world for almost 17 centuries. It is not any Asian telling it. Chinese were just a inch away from creating Industrialization as early as 13th century, their production was best in the world. Starting from1550 -1750 lot of changes happen in West which eventually led to Industrialization. Please read Ion Morris and Joseph Henrich for West's success. Now no matter what we do world's energy is limited, progress means energy capture. Just imagine Indian income becoming 12k USD. Amount of energy burn just from India will create commodity crisis. We can never go to 30k USD income level simply world is not having that much resources. India will become old before any meaningful raise in Income. India is for top 20% of the population. Only top 20% matters. Do not worry about bottom 80%.
@@atulyasworld2799 There are plenty of Job in India but they are all low wages low end job. Go to any village people say they need agriculture labors. All cities need gig workers. If government classify full time social media as job then that will also add up. But India can never create high paying job, that is at least 1 lakh per month. High paying job will be limited. Only top 20-30% of the population cease it and they grow richer. Bottom 80-90 crore people will be covered by free ration. No matter who become the PM or who run the government only this will happen.
Karan's T Shirt costs Rs 500 while Roy's shirt costs Rs 3000....that is the wide disparity even in middle class educated INDIA. We can expect atleast atleast 200 years more even to be middle income Nation
The growth of India is in the States. In India the States are divided into ruling states and opposition states. In opposition states they face lot of problems, troubles given by BJP at centre. The cooperation between centre and state in opposition states is not cordial. These states get step motherly treatments. These states even skip the meetings presided by the PM as they feel it is waste of time. Nobody cares. Growth is in states but targets are fixed by centre without each seeing face to face. Slogans cannot lead to Viksit. Unfortunate 80 cr people will continue to receive monthly ration to survive .
What you expect? Entire India's per capita income becoming 50K USD? do you even know the amount of energy and capital required for that? bottom 80 cr people simply do not need. Eventually they will suffer irrelevance, they are there just to vote. Make a policy of higher income tax gives higher vote count for the person, no party, nobody will even look at the bottom 80 cr population.
@@counterpoint9260 Dude Gujarat started developing when Congress CM was there in 1990s, he started Port led development in the state. Mr. Modi gave it a direction that is a different thing, but Gujarati people are development oriented, they were always sharp in wealth creating. UP has recovered pretty well under Yogi, however it has huge population but resources are very low. For UP to catch up with southern states ($3000 -$4000 per capita) it will take another 20 years. Please visit Sabarmathi river in Ahmedabad, that river was filthy in 1990s. Then Congress CM initiated cleaning up process, all subsequent CMs continued the work. Today it is a beautiful place with amazing facility, it is clean and pristine. Government+ Good financial thinking+ project management + public participation made it happen. Compare that with Yamuna which runs through Delhi . . . it is the dirtiest river in the world? Why can't Delhi CM didn't initiate the cleaning process? That is the difference.
Well, in China, economists talked about middle income trap since 2000s on state owned newspaper and TVs(I was a high school student at that time, and it impressed me with the cruelty of how world economy works), they taught stories to the public about how difficult it is for a country to move from middle income economy to a high income one, most countries failed, and only a few economy in last half century made it(Japan, South Korea). Then we see that China invested hugely in green economy since 2008, and "Made in China 2025" plan comed out in 2015. Now, it is 2024, China is still on its way to avoid the "middle income trap". God bless China and India, and hardworking people around the world deserve better life.
The problem of Hindi Heartland States r 1.Huge population and high population density 2.Educational institutions are very less and of below par standard 3.Many people are not Human Resource instead an extra mouth to feed 4.Hardly any industry exists in a state like Bihar 5.People locally here are mostly engaged in very generic work and not in very specialised and technical work 6.Caste based and religion based politics 7.Mindset of people is not of long term growth but is on short term things 8.Politician are worst (most of them) 9.Education infrastructure is very bad or just average at most of the places compare to Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, Tamil Nadu. 10.Corruption in state recruitment exams and paper leaks 11. Youth and mostly people born before 1990 are not aware of enough opportunities which exists today so a very high number is busy with govt recruitment exams and they know only ‘sarkaari naukri’, engineering, medicine (Doctor).
Only frivolous issues concern modi. Art 370, caa, nrc, mandir, allowing industrialists to loot, no concern for agriculture, a cynical attitude to issues, promoting corruption, looting through Gst, promoting communalism, promoting poverty through huge food inflation etc. India will only grow weaker.
@@jitkr1489 India will need at least 75 years to reach less than a quarter of per capita income level of PRESENT day U.S. which is $81,000 without taking into consideration that growth of US in those 75 years but worse than as Rathin Roy just said we don’t have any examples in the world where such massive inequalities existed in a country and such a country remained united as a country. The only examples were “FORMER” Soviet USSR and “FORMER” Yugoslavia (now Balkanized into multiple countries along with USSR broken into several countries)
Blasting out slogans like 5 trillion economy, amrit kaal, 2047 for the ears of international audiences and then mandir masjid, hindu muslim, kapdon se pehchaan over here is hurting us bad. Worry you please, theres a huge price to pay for this.
The idea of hindutva has gained prominence only recently and for good reasons, my question is what kind of development did we have before the current government came to power?
The idea of hindu and hindutva came into prominence only recently and for the right reasons, before this the congress government was only focused on muslim appeasement. It's not easy to clean up a mess in 10 years which the previous government had made during the last 60 or 65 years.
@@raun881 What India did manage to achieve in a short span was phenomenal, so much so that the developed world that had expected us to falter and stumble and fail began to look at us with new found respect and admiration. The list of things done and accomplished by erstwhile governments is long and history has duly noted the same. Now, you tell me what has Modi done in the last ten years other than complaining and playing victim and becoming a crybaby at the slightest provocation. Now listen to me, even if he had managed to achieve something worth mentioning, in my books he is still not fit to run this country, because of his politics of hate, his bigotry, his fascism, his autocratic rule bent towards dictatorship has damaged the very fabric of this country. History will not forgive him. And therefore I consider it my duty to oppose such politics and its proponents.
Classic story of India: Talented individuals with the right ideas like Rathin Roy stymied by incompetent IAS bureaucrats. It is hopeless. Bullet train to middle-income trap is speeding, and the history and arts pass IAS bureaucrats are not only clueless, they are willfully doing nothing to prevent it from happening. What a tragedy.
India has been a basket case of unorganised sector of the economy developing in an unplanned manner. 80% of the population is in this group. Planned and organised development has always lagged behind. No discussion on macro economics is possible without disclosing the huge population and at least 25% BPL families who are existing on the margins.
Appreciate this gentleman views. Whatever the idea given by this gentleman in 2018 was totally ignored by modi govt. Worst performance by current govt totally unfocused on basis problems of common people,Middle income group suffering a lot.
Infrastructure & roads are not development. Development is where we take care of poor by giving them ease of living, a secure job & atleast a good one way road on their area.
If India is on this track, then in 2100, it will be where countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey etc are today - best case scenario. The Middle Income trap can be seen in nations like Brazil, Argentina etc which never became developed despite being independent for 150+ years. It is also a valid point that India is leading towards disintegration if it proceeds on this path. In TN, elections are fought on education, employment, and empowerment. In UP, they are fought on Hindu-Muslim, cow, Muttan, Mujra etc. These cultural differences will slowly become wider. Modi has always been selling these types of dreams since the 1990s.
India was all set to join the developed world ...then they voted for hindutva which practices BANIANOMICS. Now India will remain a local power in underdeveloped S.Asia
For the last 10 years , BJP has pursued a political culture which has really nothing to do with economic/ social development of the people of all the religions/ regions or caste. This political culture has only created corny capitalism on the one hand and created a social divides and destroyed the social harmony on the other hand . All we need to do is to hit this political culture by showing them the door.
So next time don't travel in Vande Bharat, don't drive on BJP build roads, dont enroll ur parents in the insurance scheme when they are of certain age ... etc.
all indian politicians have only 1 thing in mind ....to enrich himself and his group of cronies , to maintain dominant power as long as possible. No one really cares about India or Indians in the long run. India is trapped in its own domestic political games, instead of real & true country's development. And when a new politician is in power, he will scramble the whole idea of country's development & growth again.......starting from scratch. It is like you build a house by building several walls, and then the project manager is replaced, and he thinks the wall is bad and should be rebuild another way. It goes on, and on, and on, and on.........20 years later, you still only have several walls, but never a real house
Sir...is Insia's Per Capita Income(PCI) is actually $2600?? I don't think so. Because India has huge Income Inequality. If we remove Top 1%...the avg PCI for rest of 99% would be around $1400-$1500. Make a topic on it
Our median income is actually $350 or so i.e. half the population is below this. Our situation when we disaggregate is quite scary. Currently 50% are 25 yrs or below. When they get to 35 or so, imagine the frustration and anger this youthful energy will release when they realise their aspirations will never be met.
What matters is what was it last year and what is it this year. In absolute terms you are right we are not good at all. How can you do shoddy work for decades and expect miracles all of a sudden?? What is per capita income? It is GDP divided by number of people. Government can't have a program to kill people, it can try to improve GDP, which the goverments seem to be doing pretty well for a decade or two now.
As a South Indian person lived in Kanpur during 1981 to 1985..I could see the deindustrialization of UP. All the textile mills never improved on techology. Also the political system become so corrupt and created a Goonda Raj . There was no rule of law. Educational institutions became so weak . The DAV college of Kanpur once star institution became den for Goondas..Education degraded...and whole population became less aspirational..chaltha hai attitude..Politicians in the north need to become more unselfish and proactive to make their people prosperous. Upgrade the educational institutions from Schools to colleges. 😊
Karan has hit the nail on it's head.Unfortunately none of them has any clue how to resolve the myriad problems that lay on the way.But most frightening of them all the politician's total lack of interest in this vital subject of the future of the country.Another damning evidence they think of the future no longer than five year's tranche. I am all right Jack's kind of smug attitude pervades our political scene.
He's right. Look at Indias exports .50 lakh people in IT sector contribute the same value to exports as 1.4 billion people ( roughly the services exports and goods exports are the same) clearly the top 20% are the only growth drivers in India
Median income is worse as mean is skewed by extreme values and in our case the minority rich people pull up the average to near $3000. Our median per capita is actually pathetic i.e $350 or so (meaning 50% have income below this value).
Mr.Roy, was one of the members of the PMEAC(PM Economic Advisory Council). However, he refused to accept the extension by citing he can't contact Modi directly and left for London.
Jai Hind sir. I watched the interview and found knowledgeable topic that India may fall into middle income trap due to many factors like per capita income, housing loan, medical facilities and education expense but no concrete solution analysed there, rather it needs more research on it. Thank you for enlightening us.
First of all this Viksit word is annoying for someone who doesn’t understand Hindi. Let’s solve basics first. Unless we get civilised first like not making landfills in street corners, there is no hope. We are in a civilisational trap without realising how terrible our standard of living is, leave alone income trap.
UP has to be kept deindustrialised to ensure a steady supply of skilled, experienced workers and fresh, young labour coming into the industrialised parts. If people in UP are given a choice of working in a mill in UP where they are closer to their families or being forced by poverty and lack of opportunities to head to Gujarat the best and most skilled people will get absorbed locally and only the leftover workers will head outside. With the current political dispensation working hand in hand with capital owners in a certain geography the decimation of the economy in the home state of labour is imperative to growing their wealth.
India had never even been middle income country. Try lower income traps, more so in last 10 years.
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Hi Karan, I Commend you and Thank you for the nature and quality of questions you are facilitating in your show. IMHO, being a bit less combative and more exploratory in the discourse will allow it to culminate in its most fruitful form. The goal is to demonstrate and encourage people to think critically and discern between propaganda vs ground reality, and be more involved in the change we want. If we simply push for (give me) a short-cut solution to the problem, it will only foster the status quo because the politician mavericks are already doing a great job at solving the problem with their narrative built with reassuring short-cut slogans. Please keep up the good work. I am going to subscribe to your channel.
Mr Karan Interview is nice. The description you wrote is wonderful. It seems mr roy dare to mention the failure of making concrete policies to make india a viksit bharat. Many of us can suggest the solution to the problem but the govt lack vision to implement it. So only chanting slogan will continue 😂
I don't think any one knows how to go about raising the standard of life in India. We all succumb to the chalta hai attitude and live through all the trials and tribulations that plague every one of us happily .
Compared with "Asian Tigers" nations, one of the striking differences from India is trade policy. More export would give local companies economies of scale and make them productive in terms of labor and capital due to competitions with foreign goods. India's small dependence on trade has been hampering rise of potential growth rate.
I doubt if India was ever an egalitarian country (or civilization) even when we were "Soney ki chidiya" the majority of people would have been poor. The 20% rich people are quite happy with this bevause the poor subsidise their lifestyle and provide cheap services. Even the present government is not spending enough on education and in fact encouraging vocational training and discouraging education in English.
The professor is making some valid arguments for inclusive growth. But the problem is that the majority of the population (80-90%) dont have any assets and are not considered creditworthy in the system we have at the moment. They are simply expendable and not worth taking risks for. They may well be considered lower castes for lack of a better word.
Vietnam per capita income is 1.5 times of India then why are the wages in India too high to make a Rs 300 shirt? Uttar Pradesh has built 1500 km of expressway way higher than Tamil Nadu (100 km) then why are industries not going there?
One likely hindering factor to industrialisation in Up and Bihar and many more Hindi Belt states is the dada giri and mafia type of gangs that operate under the graces of the elected “rulers” who in turn ensure that they get police, legislative and judicial support in whatever atrocities they choose to do - what industrialist would like to pay half their earnings just to set up shop in such unsafe conditions
No worries. Forget about deindustrialization. As CM of UP said, they will become $1 trillion economy within 4 years from the 2 years back, which is 4x GDP within 4 years. Now 2 years have passed, so UP will expand even faster for 2 years and become 4x within the next two years! Isn't it great?
Uttar Pradesh's gross state domestic product (GSDP) for 2023-2024 was Rs 25.48 lakh crore (US$310 billion). So Uttar Pradesh to become trillion dollars economy by 2030, she needs another 700 billion $. in her pocket.
@@rajkumarganesan9417 Your pipe dreams are not as deep as Mr Bisht's pipe dreams. Come on, dream bigger. People are not easily tethered to small or medium sized dreams.
@@kalidasa_in Brother I have no ill will towards Uttar Pradesh. U.P. may also attain pole position some day. I have only decoded from statistically analysed datas. Maharashtra has a better chance of becoming a trillion dollars economy by 2030, though I'm not from Maharashtra. Have a good day.
@@rajkumarganesan9417 Must congratulate you on your statistical analysis which is projecting 3x GDP in 6 years!!! Then why not 3-4x in 2 years even? And, no, I am not brother or sister.
Businesses are afraid to invest in north primarily because of poor infrastructure and volatile social factors even though there’s plenty of land and cheap labour
Well, let us first grow into the so-called "middle income group of countries", which itself may remain only an aspiration, given the current dismal rate of growth in the cowbelt states like the UP and MP and other states like Bihar, West Bengal and Punjab. We can worry about the " middle income trap" if and when we achieve that status. As the saying goes, if wishes were horses, beggars would ride!
human capital need to be improved in the Indian politics.... youth must be encouraged to enter into politics and lead the highest decision making, which will be the only hope to become developed in one or other possible way. 'The Growth Story of India has a Way with No Will'
India developed: Why the Goal post has shifted to 2047 ? Its Modi Jumla. He didn't meet the goal of pakka makan to all by 2022. Forget about High income or middle income. Rajiv Canada
Here is a thought. May be India for once should stop taking short cuts. Instead of daily worrying about overtaking China, USA, becoming the superpower, becoming high income country etc etc etc. May be, just may be start with the following 1) land reform 2) true equal rights and abolishment of caste 3) equal rights for Muslims, Christians and women 4) Clean up the goddamn country (there is a tik tok mime challenge now for ppl to zoom in from satellite to any part of India and find a street with no trash heaped everywhere) 5) get rid of the rape culture against women 6) invest in some goddamn sewage treatment facilities instead of dumping 100 million tons of human waste into river daily 7) improve nutrition, air quality, water quality 8) improve basic education for all Indian children not just the upper caste and few wealth ones. may be, just may be if India did these foundational changes first! India can then build upwards toward more lofty goals!
THERE SHOULD NOT BE CASTE CENSUS, INSTEAD SKILL CENSUS IS URGENTLY REQUIRED. MOST OF THE GOVERNMENT PROJECTS ARE SKEWED TOWARDS FEW CONTRACTORS. THE TENDERS ARE DESIGNED TO PROMOTE CORRUPTIONS. GOVERNMENT PROJECTS SHOULD BE MADE OPEN TO ALL ENTREPRENEURS AND CONTRACTORS.
Why are you talking about middle income trap even before reaching middle income. China, Russia, Brazil, Argentina can afford to talk about it because they have already reached there. Middle income today is $10K-$25K as per IMF. By 2047, Middle income levels might be revised to $20K-$50K. Today we are at mere $2.5K, If we manage to reach middle income level(ie $20K-$50K) by 2047 it will be great. Today we are stuck in low income trap. Let's start talking about middle income trap once we reach middle income level(ie $20K-$50K) hopefully by 2047.
There is a reason why there are so many separatist groups in Endia:- 1. Northeast separatist groups (multiple groups that cannot be count on both hands) 2. South Independence/Maharashtra Independence movements 3. J&K separatist groups 4. Overall religious, communal, language based hate and violence
For the housing, if as he suggests he wants mass housing to be built on government land with 99 year leases (common tactic among many Asian countries), why not also build a significant portion of it as socialized housing like what interwar and post-war socialists did in Austria. Effectively you build high quality housing on par with middle class housing or even better, that is owned by the local bodies and is rented out at affordable rates but never sold to any individual, targetted for all social segments not just the poor to ensure that housing prices remain affordable in the long term, while preventing slum and ghetto formation. Ofc this will require huge governance reforms and making local bodies in India actually financially independent, and not completely dysfunctional bodies at the mercy of the ruling state government with remote controlled bureaucracy.
I’ve seen some similar reports. It’s concerning because if growth stalls, it could seriously threaten not just the economy but the country’s unity and integrity. There’s a lot riding on continued growth
Exactly. I mean, India has been making great strides in tech, manufacturing, and other sectors, but if it doesn’t break out of this middle-income zone, that could stall everything. And once growth stalls, other problems can pile up-like unemployment and social unrest
The middle-income trap is a tough one to break out of. It happens when a country grows rapidly but then hits a plateau because it doesn’t innovate enough or invest in areas that drive long-term prosperity. If India can’t find new growth engines, it could be stuck
Yeah, and what worries me even more is how that might affect people’s portfolios and investments. If a country’s economy is stalling, investors could lose confidence, and that trickles down to everything. We could see returns stagnate for those who have exposure to India or emerging markets in general.
That’s why I think managing your portfolio carefully is more important than ever. Global events can have such a big impact on your investments. If India falls into that trap, it won’t just be India that suffers-it’ll affect global markets
That’s why it’s a good idea to get some professional advice, right? I mean, there’s no harm in getting a free consultation from someone like Joseph Nick Cahill. He’s a Certified Financial Planner, and his expertise can help navigate these tricky scenarios. You don’t have to commit to anything, but it’s always better to get a second opinion on how your portfolio is set up
One doesn't even need to be an outstanding economist to see the writing on the wall.
When fundamentalism grips a country one should expect this to happen.
A person in UP is not looking for better education or healthcare but "Yogiji ne Abdul ko tight kar diya, Musalmano ko thikane laga diya"
Ache din. Since 1992.
Fundamentalism and divisive politics are compulsions to distract from economic failures and antipeople policies.
Well diagnosed , that religious fundamentalist fenatism is harmful for any Nation .
Not only that cow is more important than a Human being. Cow and beef are exported when 30% of Kids are stunted.
@@Danube-nu5vl This gentleman Rathin Roy was in #former Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council and HE along with any #Politically aware person from '50s to 2K so vividly know the facts that today's Bad Economic Situation is only on us because of (as beginner) Pappu-CII, his mom #SignoraMainoGhandhji plus much more (reached to Le-Dubega moment) #Luchakke Gujarati Chauthi-Pass-Raja NaMo ... some call him #Modia !!
Mr Ratin Roy speaks the plain truth. India is not focussing on real development which is imparting good education and proper health care. This is resulting in our young population becoming stunted, weak and unable to produce properly. Our unemployable youngsters which constitute the majority of the population will eventually lead an unproductive life. We are running against time and soon these youngsters will age. Young Indians must become economically prosperous before they age. Time is running out.
education which will be of no use when all manufacturing will be robotized...........china's economy has collapsed and millions of graduates have no jobs [but not being reported] and all their fancy infrastructure is now starting to decay under bankrupties due to corporatization and over centralization of enterprises.............if all the mineral resources required for a high tech parasitical western economic financial system run out humanity will return to a sustainable agrarian cum micro manufacturing society where education will be skills based and technology will only be used minimally where its benefit is optimal..........all these people have only seen economic boom but will they be alive to witness long term decay of this transient economic system due to both human and environmental factors.........if people decide tertiary education without any real use in the real world is irrelevant the entire academic system will collapse with universities worldwide disappearing........the same fate is awaiting many large corporate behemoths and so called governments
If Rathin Roy cant speak about the things being done to uplift poor people with schemes, he is delusional and part of the problem, not solution. Things need to be seen from a base of our own state.
You are forgetting one important point, the Govts are busy in Hindu Muslim debate than economic progress
Govts or media ?
BTW dont you think that Muslims have proven themselves as a big problem all over democratic countries including Bharat.
India is in jobless growth. The difference between rich & poor is increasing exponentially and wealth will be in hands of top 2% going forward.
That's what Ravish Kumar ji has been saying that Rich are becoming richer and poor are becoming poorest.
inequality follows a bell shaped (rise, plateau, fall) curve...whenver any economy develops...case closed
Ravish is Congress supporter, every one knows it.
Middle class are drowning
Economic growth is not a zero sum game. Greater share of pie inevitably goes to rich but pie is also getting bigger. Read more.
UP and Bihar are bimaru states for a reason. Security, extortion, corruption, less demand, uneducated youth, Hindutva, religion, caste are diseases of UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
You forgot to add radicalism, Islamism to your list.
Also include west bengal, jharkhand , Punjab , Chhatisgarh they are also performing very bad.
@@ShivamGupta-wf5ni Punjab is a security state. We cannot open business in Punjab. We Sikhs tried, we used to make jaali(wired mesh) but Punjab customs raided even they are not allowed. They told us( Whole village ) not to open business except farming. Ask any IAS if you know.
@@ShivamGupta-wf5ni coming back to Punjab, we have Pakistan on one side, imagine if we have a ocean. Anyhow India have zero trade , it impacts Punjab. You guys at UP and Bihar are enjoying.
@@gobindsingh3027 Hahah, I am from Delhi and yess enjoying good quality air due to you guys.
I'm a Maharashtrian and I am sick and tired of my hard-earned money going to the bimaru states of the North. Worse, even after being the richest state in the country, the highest contributor to the GDP, and the highest tax-paying state, we have a crumbling infrastructure with no roads, poor rail connectivity, and poor healthcare. Why do we have to suffer for the inefficiency and incompetence of others?
I back this up!!!!
Absolutely right. Similar situation for Karnataka 😮
Then don't complain why bhaiyyas from UP and Bihar are coming to Mumbai. The only way to reduce internal migration is to enable the so-called Bimaru states.
Also, not all of your hard-earned money is going to the Bimaru states. A lot of them are going for infra development in MH as well.
Outside Mumbai and Pune take a look at rest of Maha. What's the condition of Vidarbha?
Rural Economy of every family has cows. What happened to cows not giving milk earlier the famer could sell his live stock were he earned 15 to 25 thousand in market. Today he cannot sell. They left on road etc. The Government has done any study's regarding their income.
If people vote for buffoons, they will get buffoonery in return.
You are Malyali Christian? I guess so. You have a point, a nation which worship cows has lot of NGOs doing "gou seva" (or taking care of abandoned cows) and running youtube ads for charity. We have lots of cow roaming around streets, eating whatever they get and die eventually. This is the situation of cows in India, have you seen western countries (EU or US)? you will never see such abandoned cows there, not even in middle east (where they all eat cows). We are a poor country and we remain poor. Cattle rearing is a business nothing more. All Hindus at one point were beef eating, even Vedic Rishis were eating beef, by time they changed and it become sacred. Only abundance make sacred things. Now Indians are poor they do not have wealth to take care of unproductive cows. Imagine the situation that we are trapped.
@@tinguzzYes. And the biggest double standard is they are fine with export of cows. Knowing full well they are selling them for slaughter. "If I didnt see it, it didnt happen" aah
Raghuram Rajan and Arvind subramanian are more blunt in this analysis and nailing this problem of producing this 300 Rs.shirt in UP and Bihar.
North India is less skilled than south India. Absolutely true. 😢
Agreed. And arrogance will make it harder to learn those new skills
UP and Bihar are bimaru states for a reason. Security, extortion, corruption, less demand, uneducated youth, Hindutva, religion, caste are diseases of UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
South India bhi konsa fully skilled he.
But yeah it is much better in terms of jobs in South. North India...mainly UP, MP, Bihar has become a Burden on India
Guys, I am from UP and really want my state to develop as well but when I go back I see just negativity all around. There is no spirit and most negative are politicians.
@@ageless1003 Divide the UP first into at least 2 different states. Then growth phase of UP will start
Another decisive and precise discussion.
Indian bureaucracy is the main rent seeking bottleneck, which needs urgent reform.
When the PM itself is a not educated, what else can you expect ??...congratulations to Bharath ki janta. Ache din have arrived 😅
It is not about educaton but intention. He is more interested in Brahmavad then rulling the country rarionally.
@@vinsin328 he came on the promise of developing the nation like he did with Gujarat. It was not an inclusive model still we let made him our PM. The fault ultimately lies on us.
@@ageless1003 One has to be really illiterate to make that assertion. Look at the data rather than regurgitating left media lines.
@@Ta-mb2gy what is left media lines ??...get out of your house and look for yourself. Pathetic. I shouldn't even be explaining myself here.
@@ageless1003 As I said, look at the data, rather than sporadic incidents of people suffering. Inclusive model, look at Multidimensional poverty index numbers. You should not be explaining yourself because you can't and would embarrass yourself in the process.
Politicians know how to divide the people and get votes but don't know how to create jobs for the people. BJP is making corporates richer and richer. People must decide now or never.
Sahi kaha.
It's now or never.
jobs will get created..if govt is not stopped getting laws like land acquistion, farm laws, UCC, waqf reform etc..
@@stallionspirit9317 How those bills will create jobs??
@@IronMan-nu3rb landacuisotion bill - create industries in rural areas>> less rural migration to cities>>more jobs
farm laws- higher income for farmers >> more spending >> more jobs
UCC - limit population growht >> more jobs avaialble
waqf reform- free up land illegallly acquired>> more land for industries >> more jobs
case closed
@@stallionspirit9317 Ye sab tum logo ka Day Dream he.
Kuchh to kar nahin paye sirf Day Dream hi dikha rahe ho logo ko. China, Vietnam chhod ke koi kyun Rural India main ayega industry lagane
One of the best and genuine analysis ….. there are atleast some channel still have the audacity to show truth
Why no discussion on how the PRC now looks likely to avoid the middle-income trap? PRC GDP/per capita will be over 13K in 2024 and looks set to break out $15K.
Beating around the bush. This country has lost the way politically economically and socially. The upper 15% is looking for an opportunity to emigrate . They are taking awsy the millions and leaving behind the wastes. I have a few suggestions : 1. Have massive investment in public education system simultaneously nationalising all private educational institutions. 2. Ban private tuition in all forms. This way everbody will get equal opportunity to compete.3. Big investment in public healthcare system and medical education . India should be able to offer good healthcare to the world. Invest in medical infrastructure. Nationalise all the private healthcare systems.4. Follow Singapore model for housing and modernisation where the government do not need to spend much for urbanisation.5. Central government should only manage defence, foreign policy, currency and communications. Rest should be looked sfter by the state governments. And lastly we donot need the IAS community. They are the root cause of the demise of this great nation. Jai hind
Modiji government performance as far as Indian Economy is considered during his term of ten years of full mandate will be listed in history as: squandered years. It’s like Failing (F-) in Math and getting B+, A+ in all other subjects. How can you go to next academic year if you Fail in Math (Economy)
UP will stay where it's even after 15 million years
Other states are going UP way too. Businesses are going out of Maharashtra, new business not coming in; Mandir masjid become everyday issues; govt schools slowly being privatized, not much attention paid to local transport like local trains, etc etc.
north should implement one child policy ASAP
What a brilliant opening of explaining the 'middle income trap'. Mr. Rathin Roy elaborated eloquently.
Dude to get trapped in middle income first we need to get into middle income level. Middle income level is 10-12K USD, where are we now? at the max 3000 USD. Indian will never even get to middle income dude, please understand. India still not integrated into global supply chain, we are not even industrialized, our speed of transport, construction, manufacturing, labor law everything is either slow or outdated . . .Indians don't need any reforms, we need free ration and a smart phone to bitch around. Only 20-30% of India in the top make some money and cease all the opportunities.
What he's refusing to say is that our culture & mindset is the core problem of India.
The MIC definition is quite flexible. The world bank's definition is as follows: "... GNI per capita between $1,136 and $13,845 in 2024." Some prefer to keep the lower bound at $5000. But $10-12 is on the higher side.
@@ati3473 If he has said that, then it proves he do not know a thing. Indian culture is not the problem, given a fertile environment Indians thrive easily. Indians outside India has lot of success. Some business communities inside India are also very successful, even when India was in shithole called Nehruvian socialism few communities thrived. After 1990s we see many Industrial clusters sprout up in spite of government (for example thirupur garments). If you read economic History compiled by Paul Bairoch or Angus Maddison you will realize east (Majorly China and India) were economic engines of the world for almost 17 centuries. It is not any Asian telling it. Chinese were just a inch away from creating Industrialization as early as 13th century, their production was best in the world.
Starting from1550 -1750 lot of changes happen in West which eventually led to Industrialization. Please read Ion Morris and Joseph Henrich for West's success.
Now no matter what we do world's energy is limited, progress means energy capture. Just imagine Indian income becoming 12k USD. Amount of energy burn just from India will create commodity crisis. We can never go to 30k USD income level simply world is not having that much resources.
India will become old before any meaningful raise in Income. India is for top 20% of the population. Only top 20% matters. Do not worry about bottom 80%.
Yes you are absolutely right. Without a job, a person can only think of survival, not middle,or high income status
@@atulyasworld2799 There are plenty of Job in India but they are all low wages low end job. Go to any village people say they need agriculture labors. All cities need gig workers. If government classify full time social media as job then that will also add up. But India can never create high paying job, that is at least 1 lakh per month. High paying job will be limited. Only top 20-30% of the population cease it and they grow richer. Bottom 80-90 crore people will be covered by free ration. No matter who become the PM or who run the government only this will happen.
Karan's T Shirt costs Rs 500 while Roy's shirt costs Rs 3000....that is the wide disparity even in middle class educated INDIA.
We can expect atleast atleast 200 years more even to be middle income Nation
The growth of India is in the States. In India the States are divided into ruling states and opposition states. In opposition states they face lot of problems, troubles given by BJP at centre. The cooperation between centre and state in opposition states is not cordial. These states get step motherly treatments. These states even skip the meetings presided by the PM as they feel it is waste of time. Nobody cares. Growth is in states but targets are fixed by centre without each seeing face to face. Slogans cannot lead to Viksit. Unfortunate 80 cr people will continue to receive monthly ration to survive .
What you expect? Entire India's per capita income becoming 50K USD? do you even know the amount of energy and capital required for that? bottom 80 cr people simply do not need. Eventually they will suffer irrelevance, they are there just to vote. Make a policy of higher income tax gives higher vote count for the person, no party, nobody will even look at the bottom 80 cr population.
Vande Mataram jai hind
the states that need to develop are in the North and mostly governed by BJPee..so why are they still not developing?
@@counterpoint9260 Dude Gujarat started developing when Congress CM was there in 1990s, he started Port led development in the state. Mr. Modi gave it a direction that is a different thing, but Gujarati people are development oriented, they were always sharp in wealth creating.
UP has recovered pretty well under Yogi, however it has huge population but resources are very low. For UP to catch up with southern states ($3000 -$4000 per capita) it will take another 20 years. Please visit Sabarmathi river in Ahmedabad, that river was filthy in 1990s. Then Congress CM initiated cleaning up process, all subsequent CMs continued the work. Today it is a beautiful place with amazing facility, it is clean and pristine. Government+ Good financial thinking+ project management + public participation made it happen.
Compare that with Yamuna which runs through Delhi . . . it is the dirtiest river in the world? Why can't Delhi CM didn't initiate the cleaning process? That is the difference.
No need economist's. It's common sense that India will stuck there and fail under ultra nationalism.
At least I am not impressed with BJP's work, be it the centre or any state.
Well, in China, economists talked about middle income trap since 2000s on state owned newspaper and TVs(I was a high school student at that time, and it impressed me with the cruelty of how world economy works), they taught stories to the public about how difficult it is for a country to move from middle income economy to a high income one, most countries failed, and only a few economy in last half century made it(Japan, South Korea). Then we see that China invested hugely in green economy since 2008, and "Made in China 2025" plan comed out in 2015. Now, it is 2024, China is still on its way to avoid the "middle income trap".
God bless China and India, and hardworking people around the world deserve better life.
I live in North America, I can't find anything made in India apart from groceries, everything is made in Bangladesh, china, Combodia and Vietnam
you are made in india
The problem of Hindi Heartland States r
1.Huge population and high population density
2.Educational institutions are very less and of below par standard
3.Many people are not Human Resource instead an extra mouth to feed
4.Hardly any industry exists in a state like Bihar
5.People locally here are mostly engaged in very generic work and not in very specialised and technical work
6.Caste based and religion based politics
7.Mindset of people is not of long term growth but is on short term things
8.Politician are worst (most of them)
9.Education infrastructure is very bad or just average at most of the places compare to Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, Tamil Nadu.
10.Corruption in state recruitment exams and paper leaks
11. Youth and mostly people born before 1990 are not aware of enough opportunities which exists today so a very high number is busy with govt recruitment exams and they know only ‘sarkaari naukri’, engineering, medicine (Doctor).
Very well said
@@amitjain3323 🙏🏻
BY 2047, INDIA may require fix-it bharat, if Viswaguru continues any further.
2 person make government to work for 20 percent and rest 80 per cent are suffering everyday.
Only frivolous issues concern modi. Art 370, caa, nrc, mandir, allowing industrialists to loot, no concern for agriculture, a cynical attitude to issues, promoting corruption, looting through Gst, promoting communalism, promoting poverty through huge food inflation etc. India will only grow weaker.
its only getting stronger!! you are listening to your church's parish too much.. relax francis.. Jesus be with you!
@@jitkr1489 India will need at least 75 years to reach less than a quarter of per capita income level of PRESENT day U.S. which is $81,000 without taking into consideration that growth of US in those 75 years but worse than as Rathin Roy just said we don’t have any examples in the world where such massive inequalities existed in a country and such a country remained united as a country. The only examples were “FORMER” Soviet USSR and “FORMER” Yugoslavia (now Balkanized into multiple countries along with USSR broken into several countries)
@@pamtam1 mat samjha bhai uss pr itni buddhi nhi hai
Blasting out slogans like 5 trillion economy, amrit kaal, 2047 for the ears of international audiences and then mandir masjid, hindu muslim, kapdon se pehchaan over here is hurting us bad. Worry you please, theres a huge price to pay for this.
And people Must pay for that.
You are operating too much in social media bubble. Get out of it for one month and report back. Dont lost your brain and sanity.
The idea of hindutva has gained prominence only recently and for good reasons, my question is what kind of development did we have before the current government came to power?
The idea of hindu and hindutva came into prominence only recently and for the right reasons, before this the congress government was only focused on muslim appeasement. It's not easy to clean up a mess in 10 years which the previous government had made during the last 60 or 65 years.
@@raun881 What India did manage to achieve in a short span was phenomenal, so much so that the developed world that had expected us to falter and stumble and fail began to look at us with new found respect and admiration. The list of things done and accomplished by erstwhile governments is long and history has duly noted the same. Now, you tell me what has Modi done in the last ten years other than complaining and playing victim and becoming a crybaby at the slightest provocation. Now listen to me, even if he had managed to achieve something worth mentioning, in my books he is still not fit to run this country, because of his politics of hate, his bigotry, his fascism, his autocratic rule bent towards dictatorship has damaged the very fabric of this country. History will not forgive him. And therefore I consider it my duty to oppose such politics and its proponents.
Difference between poor and the rich will only enhance with time in india, bjp rule will only enhance it
👌👍👍👍
Thanks to WIRE/Karan Thapar/Rathin Roy.
Classic story of India: Talented individuals with the right ideas like Rathin Roy stymied by incompetent IAS bureaucrats. It is hopeless. Bullet train to middle-income trap is speeding, and the history and arts pass IAS bureaucrats are not only clueless, they are willfully doing nothing to prevent it from happening. What a tragedy.
India has been a basket case of unorganised sector of the economy developing in an unplanned manner. 80% of the population is in this group. Planned and organised development has always lagged behind. No discussion on macro economics is possible without disclosing the huge population and at least 25% BPL families who are existing on the margins.
Appreciate this gentleman views.
Whatever the idea given by this gentleman in 2018 was totally ignored by modi govt.
Worst performance by current govt totally unfocused on basis problems of common people,Middle income group suffering a lot.
Infrastructure & roads are not development. Development is where we take care of poor by giving them ease of living, a secure job & atleast a good one way road on their area.
If India is on this track, then in 2100, it will be where countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey etc are today - best case scenario.
The Middle Income trap can be seen in nations like Brazil, Argentina etc which never became developed despite being independent for 150+ years.
It is also a valid point that India is leading towards disintegration if it proceeds on this path. In TN, elections are fought on education, employment, and empowerment. In UP, they are fought on Hindu-Muslim, cow, Muttan, Mujra etc. These cultural differences will slowly become wider.
Modi has always been selling these types of dreams since the 1990s.
India was all set to join the developed world ...then they voted for hindutva which practices BANIANOMICS. Now India will remain a local power in underdeveloped S.Asia
The answer is caste system
For the last 10 years , BJP has pursued a political culture which has really nothing to do with economic/ social development of the people of all the religions/ regions or caste. This political culture has only created corny capitalism on the one hand and created a social divides and destroyed the social harmony on the other hand .
All we need to do is to hit this political culture by showing them the door.
So next time don't travel in Vande Bharat, don't drive on BJP build roads, dont enroll ur parents in the insurance scheme when they are of certain age ... etc.
all indian politicians have only 1 thing in mind ....to enrich himself and his group of cronies , to maintain dominant power as long as possible. No one really cares about India or Indians in the long run. India is trapped in its own domestic political games, instead of real & true country's development. And when a new politician is in power, he will scramble the whole idea of country's development & growth again.......starting from scratch. It is like you build a house by building several walls, and then the project manager is replaced, and he thinks the wall is bad and should be rebuild another way. It goes on, and on, and on, and on.........20 years later, you still only have several walls, but never a real house
Sir...is Insia's Per Capita Income(PCI) is actually $2600?? I don't think so.
Because India has huge Income Inequality. If we remove Top 1%...the avg PCI for rest of 99% would be around $1400-$1500.
Make a topic on it
Our median income is actually $350 or so i.e. half the population is below this. Our situation when we disaggregate is quite scary. Currently 50% are 25 yrs or below. When they get to 35 or so, imagine the frustration and anger this youthful energy will release when they realise their aspirations will never be met.
What matters is what was it last year and what is it this year. In absolute terms you are right we are not good at all. How can you do shoddy work for decades and expect miracles all of a sudden?? What is per capita income? It is GDP divided by number of people. Government can't have a program to kill people, it can try to improve GDP, which the goverments seem to be doing pretty well for a decade or two now.
Outstanding Interview !! Many Thanks for taking initiative in making this video.
As a South Indian person lived in Kanpur during 1981 to 1985..I could see the deindustrialization of UP. All the textile mills never improved on techology. Also the political system become so corrupt and created a Goonda Raj . There was no rule of law. Educational institutions became so weak . The DAV college of Kanpur once star institution became den for Goondas..Education degraded...and whole population became less aspirational..chaltha hai attitude..Politicians in the north need to become more unselfish and proactive to make their people prosperous. Upgrade the educational institutions from Schools to colleges. 😊
Karan has hit the nail on it's head.Unfortunately none of them has any clue how to resolve the myriad problems that lay on the way.But most frightening of them all the politician's total lack of interest in this vital subject of the future of the country.Another damning evidence they think of the future no longer than five year's tranche. I am all right Jack's kind of smug attitude pervades our political scene.
Jiske haath main power he unka kaam he problem ka solution nikalna.
Wo log kya kar rahe hain!
He's right. Look at Indias exports .50 lakh people in IT sector contribute the same value to exports as 1.4 billion people ( roughly the services exports and goods exports are the same) clearly the top 20% are the only growth drivers in India
AS LONG we talk of Average income, instead of Median income we will always be a low income country.
Median income is worse as mean is skewed by extreme values and in our case the minority rich people pull up the average to near $3000. Our median per capita is actually pathetic i.e
$350 or so (meaning 50% have income below this value).
Insightful as usual
Wonderful. Let us hope that someone would listen and act.
Mr.Roy, was one of the members of the PMEAC(PM Economic Advisory Council). However, he refused to accept the extension by citing he can't contact Modi directly and left for London.
Dear Kiran thanks for the wonderful insight , I agree to Mr Vikshit and work on the 5 areas he proposed. I can contribute
Jai Hind sir. I watched the interview and found knowledgeable topic that India may fall into middle income trap due to many factors like per capita income, housing loan, medical facilities and education expense but no concrete solution analysed there, rather it needs more research on it. Thank you for enlightening us.
First of all this Viksit word is annoying for someone who doesn’t understand Hindi. Let’s solve basics first. Unless we get civilised first like not making landfills in street corners, there is no hope. We are in a civilisational trap without realising how terrible our standard of living is, leave alone income trap.
Dravidian languages also use that term.
Wonderful interview Karan both
Very nicely explained..Samaj Sarkar and bazaar.. KT should stop running down govt at every opportunity...
UP has to be kept deindustrialised to ensure a steady supply of skilled, experienced workers and fresh, young labour coming into the industrialised parts.
If people in UP are given a choice of working in a mill in UP where they are closer to their families or being forced by poverty and lack of opportunities to head to Gujarat the best and most skilled people will get absorbed locally and only the leftover workers will head outside.
With the current political dispensation working hand in hand with capital owners in a certain geography the decimation of the economy in the home state of labour is imperative to growing their wealth.
India had never even been middle income country. Try lower income traps, more so in last 10 years.
Hi Karan,
I Commend you and Thank you for the nature and quality of questions you are facilitating in your show.
IMHO, being a bit less combative and more exploratory in the discourse will allow it to culminate in its most fruitful form.
The goal is to demonstrate and encourage people to think critically and discern between propaganda vs ground reality, and be more involved in the change we want.
If we simply push for (give me) a short-cut solution to the problem, it will only foster the status quo because the politician mavericks are already doing a great job at solving the problem with their narrative built with reassuring short-cut slogans.
Please keep up the good work. I am going to subscribe to your channel.
Our per capita Income is USD 2.5 k.
Middle income is more than USD 10K
Mr Karan
Interview is nice. The description you wrote is wonderful.
It seems mr roy dare to mention the failure of making concrete policies to make india a viksit bharat.
Many of us can suggest the solution to the problem but the govt lack vision to implement it.
So only chanting slogan will continue 😂
Thanks
Wonderful discussion 😊
Rich get richer Poor get children
Insightful discussion.
I don't think any one knows how to go about raising the standard of life in India. We all succumb to the chalta hai attitude and live through all the trials and tribulations that plague every one of us happily .
Compared with "Asian Tigers" nations, one of the striking differences from India is trade policy. More export would give local companies economies of scale and make them productive in terms of labor and capital due to competitions with foreign goods. India's small dependence on trade has been hampering rise of potential growth rate.
The voice is not very clear. It's not the sound but some words are getting lost.
Cow, Mandir, Hindu Muslim and Pakistan to suffer and Remain in Power are the Goals of Double Engine Goverments of BJP in their stronghold Hindi Belt
I doubt if India was ever an egalitarian country (or civilization) even when we were "Soney ki chidiya" the majority of people would have been poor. The 20% rich people are quite happy with this bevause the poor subsidise their lifestyle and provide cheap services. Even the present government is not spending enough on education and in fact encouraging vocational training and discouraging education in English.
Do civil servants care about India?
The professor is making some valid arguments for inclusive growth.
But the problem is that the majority of the population (80-90%) dont have any assets and are not considered creditworthy in the system we have at the moment. They are simply expendable and not worth taking risks for.
They may well be considered lower castes for lack of a better word.
Br@hmin-B@niya politics and caste system ruined India
Hahahah
There is no safety and security in UP , bihar...etc...
Who will invest in a Mirzapur kind of environment...
Gading kabhi bhi palat jayegi...
Vietnam per capita income is 1.5 times of India then why are the wages in India too high to make a Rs 300 shirt? Uttar Pradesh has built 1500 km of expressway way higher than Tamil Nadu (100 km) then why are industries not going there?
One likely hindering factor to industrialisation in Up and Bihar and many more Hindi Belt states is the dada giri and mafia type of gangs that operate under the graces of the elected “rulers” who in turn ensure that they get police, legislative and judicial support in whatever atrocities they choose to do - what industrialist would like to pay half their earnings just to set up shop in such unsafe conditions
No worries. Forget about deindustrialization. As CM of UP said, they will become $1 trillion economy within 4 years from the 2 years back, which is 4x GDP within 4 years. Now 2 years have passed, so UP will expand even faster for 2 years and become 4x within the next two years! Isn't it great?
Brother Uttar Pradesh is de-industrialising herself since, 1990.
Uttar Pradesh's gross state domestic product (GSDP) for 2023-2024 was Rs 25.48 lakh crore (US$310 billion).
So Uttar Pradesh to become trillion dollars economy by 2030, she needs another 700 billion $. in her pocket.
@@rajkumarganesan9417 Your pipe dreams are not as deep as Mr Bisht's pipe dreams. Come on, dream bigger. People are not easily tethered to small or medium sized dreams.
@@kalidasa_in Brother I have no ill will towards Uttar Pradesh. U.P. may also attain pole position some day. I have only decoded from statistically analysed datas. Maharashtra has a better chance of becoming a trillion dollars economy by 2030, though I'm not from Maharashtra. Have a good day.
@@rajkumarganesan9417 Must congratulate you on your statistical analysis which is projecting 3x GDP in 6 years!!! Then why not 3-4x in 2 years even? And, no, I am not brother or sister.
Businesses are afraid to invest in north primarily because of poor infrastructure and volatile social factors even though there’s plenty of land and cheap labour
Also to ensure that the businessmsen would not be harrassed and fleeced by political parties.
Seems like we are stuck/freezed for next 5 years until the next plans comes.
good interview and economic prospects and dragging factors
Billion percent true!
When the media is still competing with Pakistan tells a lot about the state of our country.
Excellent 👍
Well, let us first grow into the so-called "middle income group of countries", which itself may remain only an aspiration, given the current dismal rate of growth in the cowbelt states like the UP and MP and other states like Bihar, West Bengal and Punjab. We can worry about the " middle income trap" if and when we achieve that status. As the saying goes, if wishes were horses, beggars would ride!
human capital need to be improved in the Indian politics.... youth must be encouraged to enter into politics and lead the highest decision making, which will be the only hope to become developed in one or other possible way. 'The Growth Story of India has a Way with No Will'
India developed: Why the Goal post has shifted to 2047 ? Its Modi Jumla.
He didn't meet the goal of pakka makan to all by 2022. Forget about High income or middle income.
Rajiv
Canada
Here is a thought. May be India for once should stop taking short cuts. Instead of daily worrying about overtaking China, USA, becoming the superpower, becoming high income country etc etc etc. May be, just may be start with the following 1) land reform 2) true equal rights and abolishment of caste 3) equal rights for Muslims, Christians and women 4) Clean up the goddamn country (there is a tik tok mime challenge now for ppl to zoom in from satellite to any part of India and find a street with no trash heaped everywhere) 5) get rid of the rape culture against women 6) invest in some goddamn sewage treatment facilities instead of dumping 100 million tons of human waste into river daily 7) improve nutrition, air quality, water quality 8) improve basic education for all Indian children not just the upper caste and few wealth ones. may be, just may be if India did these foundational changes first! India can then build upwards toward more lofty goals!
Fight between congress nd bjp leads huge problem of common Indian people 😢😢😢
THERE SHOULD NOT BE CASTE CENSUS, INSTEAD SKILL CENSUS IS URGENTLY REQUIRED.
MOST OF THE GOVERNMENT PROJECTS ARE SKEWED TOWARDS FEW CONTRACTORS. THE TENDERS ARE DESIGNED TO PROMOTE CORRUPTIONS. GOVERNMENT PROJECTS SHOULD BE MADE OPEN TO ALL ENTREPRENEURS AND CONTRACTORS.
Every slogan became Jumala ..past this also is Jumla..
Thanks.
Why are you talking about middle income trap even before reaching middle income. China, Russia, Brazil, Argentina can afford to talk about it because they have already reached there. Middle income today is $10K-$25K as per IMF. By 2047, Middle income levels might be revised to $20K-$50K. Today we are at mere $2.5K, If we manage to reach middle income level(ie $20K-$50K) by 2047 it will be great. Today we are stuck in low income trap. Let's start talking about middle income trap once we reach middle income level(ie $20K-$50K) hopefully by 2047.
There is a reason why there are so many separatist groups in Endia:-
1. Northeast separatist groups (multiple groups that cannot be count on both hands)
2. South Independence/Maharashtra Independence movements
3. J&K separatist groups
4. Overall religious, communal, language based hate and violence
For the housing, if as he suggests he wants mass housing to be built on government land with 99 year leases (common tactic among many Asian countries), why not also build a significant portion of it as socialized housing like what interwar and post-war socialists did in Austria. Effectively you build high quality housing on par with middle class housing or even better, that is owned by the local bodies and is rented out at affordable rates but never sold to any individual, targetted for all social segments not just the poor to ensure that housing prices remain affordable in the long term, while preventing slum and ghetto formation. Ofc this will require huge governance reforms and making local bodies in India actually financially independent, and not completely dysfunctional bodies at the mercy of the ruling state government with remote controlled bureaucracy.
The paralysed policy of union government
Achcha hi
Really worrisome situation...😱🤔☠️