Agreed that the CDP-JCP alliance did work in the sense that their voters seems to have transferred their votes to each other. In my view CDP did cheat a bit in the CDP-JCP alliance. The seats they "gave" to JCP are all seats where the old DPJ-Rengo vote plus the local old DPJ candidate went over to TF. So in reality even if the CDP nominated a candidate in these seats it is a certainty they will do poorly in those seats. The the few cases the old DPJ turned TF candidate decided to defect back to CDP, the CDP had no issues running them as candidates, sometimes against the JCP candidate.
The election was also unique in that low turnout historically helped the LDP and high turnout tend to hurt LDP. This time around turnout was low but LDP had its second worst result in history (only 2017 was worse.)
That's right! I was really shocked the LDP didn't do better with such low turnout. It's a bit difficult to directly compare turnout this year to past years, though, because of COVID. In the past, low turnout due to races being uninspiring or unimportant meant a higher proportion of people who actually voted were organized block votes, i.e. the sort of people who backed LDP, Komeito, JCP. With covid, though, the reason people kept away from polls wasn't necessarily because the election was boring, but due to COVID, which may have depressed organized and non-organized votes more similarly.
Agreed that the CDP-JCP alliance did work in the sense that their voters seems to have transferred their votes to each other. In my view CDP did cheat a bit in the CDP-JCP alliance. The seats they "gave" to JCP are all seats where the old DPJ-Rengo vote plus the local old DPJ candidate went over to TF. So in reality even if the CDP nominated a candidate in these seats it is a certainty they will do poorly in those seats. The the few cases the old DPJ turned TF candidate decided to defect back to CDP, the CDP had no issues running them as candidates, sometimes against the JCP candidate.
The election was also unique in that low turnout historically helped the LDP and high turnout tend to hurt LDP. This time around turnout was low but LDP had its second worst result in history (only 2017 was worse.)
That's right! I was really shocked the LDP didn't do better with such low turnout.
It's a bit difficult to directly compare turnout this year to past years, though, because of COVID. In the past, low turnout due to races being uninspiring or unimportant meant a higher proportion of people who actually voted were organized block votes, i.e. the sort of people who backed LDP, Komeito, JCP. With covid, though, the reason people kept away from polls wasn't necessarily because the election was boring, but due to COVID, which may have depressed organized and non-organized votes more similarly.