"20 years down the road, this blip won't even be visible, you'll just see strong upward growth" When whas the last time an index (anywhere in the planet) returned anything meaningful over 10/15 years from CAPE 38x?
the last time for that was actually in 2000. You could have bought the SP or Nasdaq on its peak and 20 or 24 years later you would be perfectly happy with your decision. S&P in March 2000: 1500. S&P 15 years later: 2100 aka 2.2% pa without dividends. S&P now: close to 6000 is roughly 6 %, and dividends would ad maybe 2 % pa to that. (of course, bond yields in 2000 were super attractive, and you could have switched into stocks later, like in 2009, ideally.)
@@gcgrabodan The return over the subsequent 15 years was 0 and the cagr over the subsequent 25 years was around 6% for both indices. If that makes you happy, then you are right I guess. I am not happy with the prospect of 15 years of no return and I am not okay with the prospect of a 6% cagr over 25 years. Also, that 6% cagr came on the back of 15 years of 0% rates, 9t injection into the system, tax cuts and balloning debt, none of which is repetable over the next few decades.
@@mathewwilson9776 of course you would be buying consistently over the course of those 15 years. You're thinking in terms of investing a lump sum at the worst possible time and not topping up your investment. If you simulate a regular investment period over the same time frame your overall performance will look a lot better. Of course some of your months will do better than others
BGLF /BGLP getting wound up before any one runs for that one ( Blackstone have stitched up shareholders as well by privatising all the remaining shares internally so you'll only get half the actual premium of NAV to share price that the assetts were yielding as the shares were liquidated)
Love your channel but don’t agree with your bitcoin analysis. BTC fell mainly due to the FED comments on the proposed BTC strategic reserve. BTC correlates with liquidity and the protocol progressively tightens supply/demand over time this has meant BTC has massively outperformed the Nasdaq over the last 14 years.
Ok so i get the reasoning behind a sell off because of higher borrowing costs etc etc because interest rate cuts are going to slow down , however what about since November 2022 when inflation was very high interest rates hadn't even begun to be considered for cuts yet the markets have been buying equities at a crazy rate taking them to all time highs ?? Now we have had reasonably strong cuts already with some more on the way yet suddenly these equities are too high risk ?
I'm surprised they didn't pause the cuts. Powell knows that Trump is going to be pushing him to drop rates Erdogan style, so putting a pause in now would give the Fed some breathing space next year
"20 years down the road, this blip won't even be visible, you'll just see strong upward growth"
When whas the last time an index (anywhere in the planet) returned anything meaningful over 10/15 years from CAPE 38x?
the last time for that was actually in 2000. You could have bought the SP or Nasdaq on its peak and 20 or 24 years later you would be perfectly happy with your decision.
S&P in March 2000: 1500. S&P 15 years later: 2100 aka 2.2% pa without dividends. S&P now: close to 6000 is roughly 6 %, and dividends would ad maybe 2 % pa to that.
(of course, bond yields in 2000 were super attractive, and you could have switched into stocks later, like in 2009, ideally.)
@@gcgrabodan The return over the subsequent 15 years was 0 and the cagr over the subsequent 25 years was around 6% for both indices. If that makes you happy, then you are right I guess. I am not happy with the prospect of 15 years of no return and I am not okay with the prospect of a 6% cagr over 25 years.
Also, that 6% cagr came on the back of 15 years of 0% rates, 9t injection into the system, tax cuts and balloning debt, none of which is repetable over the next few decades.
@@mathewwilson9776 of course you would be buying consistently over the course of those 15 years. You're thinking in terms of investing a lump sum at the worst possible time and not topping up your investment. If you simulate a regular investment period over the same time frame your overall performance will look a lot better. Of course some of your months will do better than others
Still can't hear you mate!
Need to get closer to your microphone or get a better microphone
Yes, sound level lower than usual today. I think it was the Recording Level Setting, rather than the microphone.
Thanks for letting me know @Doozler my mike was set too low
I turn up my volume to hear then blow out my ears when the commercials come on. Other than that the content is excellent.
Glad you found the content helpful @davidhalbleib2467
Thank You.
You're welcome @DPTrainor1
Like many others, you also need to adjust the volume you record your video at. If I can't hear it, I won't hang around to listen
I have the video on maximum volume and still struggling. When the adverts kick in its awful 😂
Yea I notice the sound being much lower on the livestream playbacks
The volume is fine. Sounds like you need to get the earwax cleared out if you’re struggling to hear.
Volume is fine for me
Sounds good. 👋
BGLF /BGLP getting wound up before any one runs for that one ( Blackstone have stitched up shareholders as well by privatising all the remaining shares internally so you'll only get half the actual premium of NAV to share price that the assetts were yielding as the shares were liquidated)
You didn't mention individual gilts as a hedge (rather than bond / gilt funds)
Don’t even think of dropping the Teddy segment! Thanks, once again, for your invaluable content Ramin.
My pleasure @DismalScience
What did Teddy think of Powell's speech? "Rough!"
Ramin, your sound is not clear and has low volurme, from Australia
It's probably difficult to hear because you're so far away.
Sorry @johna9851 my mike was set incorrectly but i've corrected it for tonight's livestream
Ramin, your audio is fine for me. I listened from Connecticut. Keep up the great work
I appreciate that @Kep19901
Love your channel but don’t agree with your bitcoin analysis. BTC fell mainly due to the FED comments on the proposed BTC strategic reserve. BTC correlates with liquidity and the protocol progressively tightens supply/demand over time this has meant BTC has massively outperformed the Nasdaq over the last 14 years.
Ok so i get the reasoning behind a sell off because of higher borrowing costs etc etc because interest rate cuts are going to slow down , however what about since November 2022 when inflation was very high interest rates hadn't even begun to be considered for cuts yet the markets have been buying equities at a crazy rate taking them to all time highs ?? Now we have had reasonably strong cuts already with some more on the way yet suddenly these equities are too high risk ?
How do you “look through inflation” when prices are sticky, meaning many will never go back down (they’ll stay higher to pad profits)?
Big players short the markets as well as long . . .
Ramin please can you do something about the volume..
Sorry @JohnFord-c5l my mistake I've corrected for the Bank of England tonight
I think the audio is fine. To those complaining about adverts: pay for YT Premium or suck it up, buttercup. Ramin your content is exceptional.
I'm surprised they didn't pause the cuts. Powell knows that Trump is going to be pushing him to drop rates Erdogan style, so putting a pause in now would give the Fed some breathing space next year
There is no law change required to remove JP. 👎
Would love a massive crash. Even though I'm invested I have cash on the sidelines and dream of buying low low low low. Please crash 😂
If you think labours policies are good for the UK economy, you are completely deluded.
"Less crazy policies", how did you reckon that????????
Too many adverts. I'm out of here youtube 👋
Download adblock browser, they disappear completely.
Greetings from Nepal where buffalo meat is very tasty. Bahot mito hain.
Blue sky lol