@@tauceti8060 The votes by the actual electors, that determine the winner Constitutionally, are cast on December 17th (this year, it varies along with the election day). January 6th is the day those ballots are opened and processed by Congress, announcing the final result. January 20th is inauguration day, when the new President actually takes power, specifically at noon. There are also a few other deadlines and procedures in between, involving the National Archives, who officially record the votes. It's done this way to allow time for everything to be transferred and processed - originally they would have had to physically carry the ballots from each statehouse to the Capitol by horse.
@@biggieb8900 for example if polls say someone you like will win, you might get lazy and not vote since the polls already say they will win, which might lead to them losing in the end.
I did a phone survey (not about candidates, but about a specific issue) and the guy doing the survey was really excited to find out I was in my mid-20s because we never pick up. I was just really bored that day. 😂
Yes as the video said and explained, that weighting is used to account for that. Of course then comes the question was the weighting done well and based on valid data and arguments.
@@TheaverageQueerperson-vq4wv Considering that even his manager, who was in charge of finding flaws in election, came out clean saying it is not rigged.
And yet they take over 6 minutes to give us a simple message: early polls are unreliable, so there is no point in paying attention to them. Wait until after election day to find out the results. Start the video at 6:04
Yeah but their journalistic quality has severely deteriorated. Remember when you used to hear from multiple professionals on a video's topic? I can't recall the last time one of their recent videos had more than one contributor.
@@blorpblorpblorp its probably because theyre trying to make the videos in shorter amounts of time since alot of them are time constrained- like this video.
That's not entirely true. People of different background are still being polled, even if less for some backgrounds, and they sort them into representative categories by asking them basic questions like age group and income.
There is more way in which polls are made than just calling random cellphone number. It's just the easiest and cheapest way to conduct it. But there are different ways in which polls are made, for example you can send Interviewer who goes to every 10th door on the left side of the road on the X, Y and Z Street in This or that town and ask people to write on paper which candidate they supports and then put it in secret box, so interviewers can't see who did you "voted" for. But this kind of poll making is much more expensive.
Yes and no. The only reason we know that this election will be a close one is because of polling. If we didn't have poll results, we wouldn't even be privy to that information. The other thing pollsters do is actually poll by state. That is way more important national polling because only a handful of states each election determine the result. If those polls aren't close, then they can tell us who is leading the election. If those polls are close, then we know we're headed into a true coinflip situation.
well.. there's kind of a causal relationship there. if the polls say that a state is close, then that *causes* the candidates to go after that state, which makes it even closer.
I have worked on polling statistical methods during my PhD days with one of the best pollsters in the country, who sadly passed away in 2019 - there are wayy too many factors to control to use any polling as a predictor - currently pollsters do not account mis-specified strata in the demographics, which is one of the largest sources in error
True all science is junk😂😂😂.....I guess you argue with the doctors when you have cancer as to whether or not to try certain types of chemo because they are never 100% accurate cure rate. Polls are as scientific as mathematical theories.
I hope we all know that it doesn't matter who is in the 'top job' because this is a systemic problem -- greed. We have allowed many of our economic sectors, to take advantage of the American people. It's disgusting and frightening for the future of our country. My husband and I will be retiring in the next two years n another country. We are absolutely worried that SSI will no longer be funded. we'll have to rely on his pension, a 403 (b) and a very prolific lnvestment account with my Abby Joseph Cohen my FA. Our national debt is bloating and expanding every month. Our government needs to get spending under control and cut the federal budget.
I went from no money to lnvest with to busting my A** off on Uber eats for four months to raise about $20k to start trading with Abby Joseph Cohen. I am at $128k right now and LOVING that you have to bring this up here
Abby Joseph Cohen Services has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
It tells us what people told them at the time. The poll isn't asking you to extrapolate data and find the winner from these numbers. It's just a poll, it can't hurt you bro.
Yea, we have around 333 million people but in many cases the election is decided by far fewer. I think somebody said Biden won in the electoral college by around 43,000 votes in three states or some such. Gore lost by 537 votes in Florida. This is why I'm against the electoral college. It would be so much better if it was decided by everybody everywhere.
It’s useful to tell which races are massive blowouts and which aren’t (good for outing grifters and detecting blatantly rigged elections), but anything past that is a bit iffy. And for anything as close as this presidential election, they’re not useful to pay attention to.
Lol media made it sound like it was close..... Even showing Kamala having a slight lead... Wasn't even close! As an amateur statistician I am really fascinated about things like this. I see two major possibilities: (1) Democrats are more likely to respond to the poll (2) The media making it sound like Kamala is likely to win drove more Republicans to go vote that was on the fence to just be lazy.
@Kryptictails yeah that goes with my (2) theory.... Them saying it's close with Kamala lead while also trashing Trump constantly. I really am curious if that caused millions of extra voters to show up in Trump's favor that were probably going to just skip voting.
@@Kryptictails Exactly. In their 2016 soul-searching they already admitted that negative publicity was still publicity, which I guess tend to make people get familiar and used to once intolerable things. Yet, eight years later it turned out that media and campaigns totally learned nothing and still made everything about Trump🤣
either way. this is gonna be hype. We will either have our first woman president OR first convicted felon president. THIS ONE IS FOR THE HISTORY BOOKS !!!
Yeah i answered ONE call for a poll survey. I was on a long shift and wanted anything to not do work. The guy was surprised I answered given i'm in my 20's. Then i continued ignoring spam
I work in survey research. Fantastic job of explaining this in under 10 minutes . Going to show it to my colleagues and students (I also have taught a class in marketing research)
The basic issues that are involved in performing an accurate poll are well known in statistics. For some reason, the pollsters do not adhere to the principles. One is the possibility that people will lie or not wish to respond when contacted. This can be mitigated by offering a serious sum of money up front. This not only vastly increases the probability that the selected person will consent to respond, but also that they will be honest in their responses (people feel obligated to be fair when they are being paid). But they don't pay people, and the only people they get answers from are those that want to have their voices heard, for whatever reason.
It's a 50/50. If Trump wins, that's all you'll hear about the next 4 years. Remember 2016-2020? Actually, now that I think of it, it likely doesn't matter. 100% chance you'll see nothing but either party on YT and other media outlets, constantly, for the next 4 years
Harvard Kennedy School article: "Our major systemic failure [of using AI models] happened on a question about US intervention in the Ukraine war. In our experiments, the AI agents conditioned to be liberal were predominantly opposed to US intervention in Ukraine and likened it to the Iraq war. Conservative AI agents gave hawkish responses supportive of US intervention. This is pretty much what most political experts would have expected of the political equilibrium in US foreign policy at the start of the decade but was exactly wrong in the politics of today." so AI is not only ruining art, it's also ruining polling
I never understood how a few thousand people could possibly represent millions or even hundreds of millions in the case of us elections but this video was very helpful at understanding why they can still be reliable despite the sampling error
I work at a call center that does political surveys. The average calls per hour can be anywhere from 0.5-1.5 depending on the state. It's a lot of sitting and waiting, and I feel like the people who pick up are the people most into politics.
He'll have to earn back my trust after his tantrum in 2020 but if this is what the results say then so be it. For better or for worse let's see what happens
Another copy-and-paste response from someone who didn't even bother watching the video before posting. No wonder Trump is so close to winning if this is the quality of the youth we have in the USA
@@breazfreind402 yeah but my comment doesn’t mean I didn’t watch the video or copy paste a response. I personally have never been solicited for political opinions through any means other than phone calls or mail that I am aware of. So for me, even if it’s covered in the video, it’s worth repeating.
Another thing is that polls can be deliberately inaccurate to make the numbers closer than they really are, because if it's obvious that a candidate is going to win, there's not much of a demand for polls, unless something major happens
I have never answered a poll myself, but a friend was called, before being asked which way they were planning to vote, the poller asked whether they knew that candidate A was planning to cut funding on issue X. ie. It was a loaded question. Polls don't tell us much.
I got my first poll call about a month ago. The call disconnected me 3 times before connecting the 4th time. It worries me that it took 4 times to get my one poll questions… I almost didn’t answer.
I LOVE EDUCATING PEOPLE ON MATHEMATICAL SUBJECTS!!! I LOVE SHOWING PEOPLE HOW TO INTERPERET SAMPLE SIZES!!!! BETTER INFORMED DATA-DRIVEN DECISION MAKING YIPPPEEEE 🥰🥰🥰🥳🥳🥳 this isnt sarcastic lol i just think it's funny to type that in all caps
I fail to recognise any benefits to polling. Unless wasting money, time, and promoting whatever narrative people want to use, collect or twist polling data is the goal
Let's unite to overcome Trump's divisive era on November 5, 2024, driven by our shared love for America. It's time to break free from the toxic cycle of hatred & intolerance that has come to define 'Trump Derangement Syndrome' - a phenomenon where rational thinking gives way to blind disdain!!!!!
If I’m polled on the phone, I wouldn’t even be honest about who I support - I’d tell them I support the other candidate in the hope that a bad poll number would motivate more people on my side to eventually vote.
Vox's understanding of the margin of error is wrong. The real number does not have to be in the margin of error. And there is no probability that it falls in the margin of error, it either is in the confidence interval or it is not.
It would be interesting to go into depth on various polls. What was the raw data vs the weighed sample. How do polls today compare to polls in 2016 / 2020 / 2022? Why did those polls not get right? Have things been corrected? Over corrected? Are there other factors we are missing? It’s a logical fallacy to assume because something has always happened in the past that it will always happen that way.
Polling is still important for campaign on where should they direct the limited resources. In an ideal world, they show court all voter instead of just selected swing states... Unfortunately, our electoral system is set up in such a way that it makes more sense to focus effort in certain states....
There is also a matter of the biases of the people who would be willing to answer a poll in the first place. I can't imagine a lot of Gen Z getting a random phone call and be willing to answer what their political opinion is, and statistically speaking, Gen Zs are more likely to vote for Kamala Harris. This is but one factor that might cause the polls to be inaccurate.
In conclusion: The real poll is on November 5th.
Its on january 20th actually
@tauceti8060 i get what you mean but... no.
@@tauceti8060Jan 6th
Whenever trump tries to overthrow our government again
@@tauceti8060 The votes by the actual electors, that determine the winner Constitutionally, are cast on December 17th (this year, it varies along with the election day).
January 6th is the day those ballots are opened and processed by Congress, announcing the final result. January 20th is inauguration day, when the new President actually takes power, specifically at noon.
There are also a few other deadlines and procedures in between, involving the National Archives, who officially record the votes.
It's done this way to allow time for everything to be transferred and processed - originally they would have had to physically carry the ballots from each statehouse to the Capitol by horse.
So...morale of the story: Don't trust the polls and just go out and vote.
What does "trust the polls" even mean
@@biggieb8900 what do you think? It kind of obvious
@@biggieb8900 what do you think they mean
what i got is. dont trust but trust it.
@@biggieb8900 for example if polls say someone you like will win, you might get lazy and not vote since the polls already say they will win, which might lead to them losing in the end.
My poll has Kim Jong Un at 120% chance to win the North Korean Presidency.
with a 20% margin of error
Only 120%??? Back when his father was in office he could easily hit triple that! Really goes to show how far their dynasty has fallen.
That's nothing. Putin has a 150% chance of winning in the next election
That seems low. I'm polling him at least 200%.
really? my polls had it kim 51%...
I did a phone survey (not about candidates, but about a specific issue) and the guy doing the survey was really excited to find out I was in my mid-20s because we never pick up. I was just really bored that day. 😂
Bruh XD
Younger generations don't answer random phone calls or texts.
Yup.
They also vote in fewer numbers, so....
Yes as the video said and explained, that weighting is used to account for that. Of course then comes the question was the weighting done well and based on valid data and arguments.
So weighting reflects that.
Did they account for Covid?
Theres a very accurate poll coming up that ends on Tuesday
Apparently it’s not if you ask the republican candidate
@@llcn829 Well according to him it's only accurate if he wins
@@frenchtoast4491Well apparently he called it inaccurate even when he won
Won't you agree that it's a really clever tactic of manipulation?
@@TheaverageQueerperson-vq4wv Considering that even his manager, who was in charge of finding flaws in election, came out clean saying it is not rigged.
Vox's editing quality is outstanding.
Ocetober
And yet they take over 6 minutes to give us a simple message: early polls are unreliable, so there is no point in paying attention to them. Wait until after election day to find out the results. Start the video at 6:04
WHO LET TEH FAX SPITTER OUT?!🗣️🗣️🗣️🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Yeah but their journalistic quality has severely deteriorated. Remember when you used to hear from multiple professionals on a video's topic? I can't recall the last time one of their recent videos had more than one contributor.
@@blorpblorpblorp its probably because theyre trying to make the videos in shorter amounts of time since alot of them are time constrained- like this video.
Polls can tell us what boomers who answer random numbers on their cell phones think
That's not entirely true. People of different background are still being polled, even if less for some backgrounds, and they sort them into representative categories by asking them basic questions like age group and income.
you obviously didn't watch the video...
There is more way in which polls are made than just calling random cellphone number. It's just the easiest and cheapest way to conduct it. But there are different ways in which polls are made, for example you can send Interviewer who goes to every 10th door on the left side of the road on the X, Y and Z Street in This or that town and ask people to write on paper which candidate they supports and then put it in secret box, so interviewers can't see who did you "voted" for. But this kind of poll making is much more expensive.
There's also the tendency that people under 30 are greatly under polled because they don't participate or will ignore or lie on them.
so basically u skipped the part about weighting, or u didnt watch at all which is more likely ngl
Polling organizations after spending millions and millions of dollars:
"Yeah, this may or may not happen"
The stock market, marriage, childbirth, jobs, driving... etc. Nothing's guaranteed.
@@AdanSolasNonsense. Marriage is guaranteed. Like I guarantee you that I will never get married.
@j.a.weishaupt1748 1. That's a terrible attempt at an insult.
2. That's not even what I meant.
@@AdanSolas 1. Well I was insulting myself…
2. I was joking.
@j.a.weishaupt1748 Touché
As a pollster, this is a an awesome video. Thank you for explaining this better than I ever could
imagine working around the clock spending tons and tons of money only to determine it’s a 50/50 shot that could go either way.
Yes and no. The only reason we know that this election will be a close one is because of polling. If we didn't have poll results, we wouldn't even be privy to that information.
The other thing pollsters do is actually poll by state. That is way more important national polling because only a handful of states each election determine the result. If those polls aren't close, then they can tell us who is leading the election. If those polls are close, then we know we're headed into a true coinflip situation.
Statistics in a nutshell
well.. there's kind of a causal relationship there. if the polls say that a state is close, then that *causes* the candidates to go after that state, which makes it even closer.
That's still important information to know
@@FWtravels it does tell you the race is close. You wouldn't know the race was this close if it wasn't for the polls.
I have worked on polling statistical methods during my PhD days with one of the best pollsters in the country, who sadly passed away in 2019 - there are wayy too many factors to control to use any polling as a predictor - currently pollsters do not account mis-specified strata in the demographics, which is one of the largest sources in error
Which use cases ARE polls good for?
Controlling a narrative and controlling public opinion by trying to sway ideas abour the state of things@@obscurehero
Wow you sound like you're the life of the party 😂
True all science is junk😂😂😂.....I guess you argue with the doctors when you have cancer as to whether or not to try certain types of chemo because they are never 100% accurate cure rate. Polls are as scientific as mathematical theories.
@@pavelow235Dude what
I hope we all know that it doesn't matter who is in the 'top job' because this is a systemic problem -- greed. We have allowed many of our economic sectors, to take advantage of the American people. It's disgusting and frightening for the future of our country. My husband and I will be retiring in the next two years n another country. We are absolutely worried that SSI will no longer be funded. we'll have to rely on his pension, a 403 (b) and a very prolific lnvestment account with my Abby Joseph Cohen my FA. Our national debt is bloating and expanding every month. Our government needs to get spending under control and cut the federal budget.
I went from no money to lnvest with to busting my A** off on Uber eats for four months to raise about $20k to start trading with Abby Joseph Cohen. I am at $128k right now and LOVING that you have to bring this up here
How can i reach this Abby Joseph Cohen, if you don't mind me asking? I've known her by her reputation at Goldman Sachs
@@LaillaBelgradeWell her name is 'ABBY JOSEPH COHEN SERVICES'. Just research the name. You'd find her details to set up an appointment.
Abby Joseph Cohen Services has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
The very first time we tried, we invested $7000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
" What polls can actually tell us", well nothing... actually
It tells us what people told them at the time. The poll isn't asking you to extrapolate data and find the winner from these numbers. It's just a poll, it can't hurt you bro.
It's supposed to be looked at as a timeline anyway, then politicians look at events relating to the polling trends to see what is and isn't popular.
This answers my question about why are polls done for only like 500 people for a population of over 300 million. Good video Vox!
Yea, we have around 333 million people but in many cases the election is decided by far fewer. I think somebody said Biden won in the electoral college by around 43,000 votes in three states or some such. Gore lost by 537 votes in Florida. This is why I'm against the electoral college. It would be so much better if it was decided by everybody everywhere.
Don't forget about gerrymandering and in general the awful voting system either, one vote counts more than the other.
the uncertainties are so large its basically created for entertainment value
It creates ambiguity and they don't take well for this kind of ambiguity and their efforts to try and find out makes a lot think its a sick joke..
It’s useful to tell which races are massive blowouts and which aren’t (good for outing grifters and detecting blatantly rigged elections), but anything past that is a bit iffy. And for anything as close as this presidential election, they’re not useful to pay attention to.
Atlas Intel from Brazil is the only one that got the predictions from the swing-states correct
Lol media made it sound like it was close..... Even showing Kamala having a slight lead... Wasn't even close! As an amateur statistician I am really fascinated about things like this. I see two major possibilities:
(1) Democrats are more likely to respond to the poll
(2) The media making it sound like Kamala is likely to win drove more Republicans to go vote that was on the fence to just be lazy.
and news talking about trump everyday probably helped in someway?
@Kryptictails yeah that goes with my (2) theory.... Them saying it's close with Kamala lead while also trashing Trump constantly. I really am curious if that caused millions of extra voters to show up in Trump's favor that were probably going to just skip voting.
@@ZenithWest169 I'm sure that happened
@@Kryptictails Exactly. In their 2016 soul-searching they already admitted that negative publicity was still publicity, which I guess tend to make people get familiar and used to once intolerable things. Yet, eight years later it turned out that media and campaigns totally learned nothing and still made everything about Trump🤣
Omg THANK YOU for this, you answered many of my unasked questions about polls!! 👌🏻
Take the context of the election out and this video still makes a very good analysis of primary research. Thank you, Vox.
Well I guess it doesn’t matter anymore 😅
Vox editing quality is top notch. Respect for the editors.
either way. this is gonna be hype. We will either have our first woman president OR first convicted felon president. THIS ONE IS FOR THE HISTORY BOOKS !!!
This is absolutely inspiring to me, and to others like me. This could be a game changer for convicted felons everywhere.
@@mankytoes Just kinda funny how a felon can't vote but they can be the president lol
@@mankytoesThey were already allowed to run for office, though.
real, definitely hype
We already had a convicted felon president 😢
Yeah i answered ONE call for a poll survey. I was on a long shift and wanted anything to not do work. The guy was surprised I answered given i'm in my 20's. Then i continued ignoring spam
that's a good video right there
How is this election even close? What a shame.
" " - Both Parties
This result is inevitable. Each party picks a candidate who is most polarizing, while still having a chance of winning. This maximizes agenda.
It's not.
Who do you want to win?
That's the lovely thing about freedom of choice. Everyone thinks what they want.
@@theBear89451lmfao, Kamala and Biden have mostly centrist policies
Population, weighting, sample size, representative sample, all things i learned in school and finally seeing a practical of those concepts here.
I have never been asked to take a pole in over twenty years. But I've been asked to donate for all parties Day after Day.
Polls don’t matter, but vote as if you’re losing.
the answer: nothing
I work in survey research. Fantastic job of explaining this in under 10 minutes
. Going to show it to my colleagues and students (I also have taught a class in marketing research)
I'm currently taking methods of research, I'll be taking this to class 😂
Elect Hatsune Miku for President
SEKA
I'm thinking Miku Miku oo ee oo
@@NahnomachinesSon blue hair blue tie, hiding in your wifi
I'm writing in the Rock.
I remember people were unironically wasting their 2016 vote on Harambe
2016 and 2024 elections made me lose confidence in election polls 😂
Honestly the polls this time weren't as bad as 2016 or 2020
Well, it’s time to get ready to sit on your phone for a week refreshing your browser every ten seconds to see every vote count update.
Nice explanation.
The basic issues that are involved in performing an accurate poll are well known in statistics. For some reason, the pollsters do not adhere to the principles. One is the possibility that people will lie or not wish to respond when contacted. This can be mitigated by offering a serious sum of money up front. This not only vastly increases the probability that the selected person will consent to respond, but also that they will be honest in their responses (people feel obligated to be fair when they are being paid). But they don't pay people, and the only people they get answers from are those that want to have their voices heard, for whatever reason.
Can wait for my UA-cam to move on from this election next year
ikr, it’s just stressing me out and i can’t even vote yet. so excited for when this is no longer relevant 🙏
It's good to knopw you aren't impatient.
It's a 50/50. If Trump wins, that's all you'll hear about the next 4 years. Remember 2016-2020?
Actually, now that I think of it, it likely doesn't matter. 100% chance you'll see nothing but either party on YT and other media outlets, constantly, for the next 4 years
I’ve never been contacted for a poll. Nor would I have the time to answer them 😂
i dont know anyone who has ever been polled
and i have been asking for years
Interesting video! I never thought about some of these things
Polls also assume even turnout, which is not likely the case
Harvard Kennedy School article: "Our major systemic failure [of using AI models] happened on a question about US intervention in the Ukraine war. In our experiments, the AI agents conditioned to be liberal were predominantly opposed to US intervention in Ukraine and likened it to the Iraq war. Conservative AI agents gave hawkish responses supportive of US intervention. This is pretty much what most political experts would have expected of the political equilibrium in US foreign policy at the start of the decade but was exactly wrong in the politics of today."
so AI is not only ruining art, it's also ruining polling
"What polls can actually tell us" - Nothing. Polls are worthless. They have as much value as the TP I just wiped my backside with.
What the video said
Polling is a complete waste of everyone's time, there is only one poll that counts on election day.
but the new needs something to talk about
I never understood how a few thousand people could possibly represent millions or even hundreds of millions in the case of us elections but this video was very helpful at understanding why they can still be reliable despite the sampling error
I work at a call center that does political surveys. The average calls per hour can be anywhere from 0.5-1.5 depending on the state. It's a lot of sitting and waiting, and I feel like the people who pick up are the people most into politics.
What polls actually tell us, NOTHING. GO VOTE
Polls are skewed so badly. Methods of research was the best class I could've taken this semester.
He'll have to earn back my trust after his tantrum in 2020 but if this is what the results say then so be it. For better or for worse let's see what happens
Pollsters have also been “herding”. It’s not this close.
Watching Vox introducing what polls can actually tell us in UA-cam is the biggest political activity I can participate as a Chinese citizen
this is why I love and subscribe Vox ! Vox is beyond other media
Literally the only people I know who answer random phone calls or respond to mail are old and senile.
Another copy-and-paste response from someone who didn't even bother watching the video before posting. No wonder Trump is so close to winning if this is the quality of the youth we have in the USA
@ lol ok
@@Fatboy_415 i mean he is not wrong on that this point was described in a video dedicated to polling. She explains it quite succinctly
@@breazfreind402 yeah but my comment doesn’t mean I didn’t watch the video or copy paste a response. I personally have never been solicited for political opinions through any means other than phone calls or mail that I am aware of. So for me, even if it’s covered in the video, it’s worth repeating.
this video, i think, is also very helpful towards literacy in graphs and surveys in general, not just election polls
Another thing is that polls can be deliberately inaccurate to make the numbers closer than they really are, because if it's obvious that a candidate is going to win, there's not much of a demand for polls, unless something major happens
I have never answered a poll myself, but a friend was called, before being asked which way they were planning to vote, the poller asked whether they knew that candidate A was planning to cut funding on issue X. ie. It was a loaded question. Polls don't tell us much.
That wasn't actually a polster calling your friend.
I got my first poll call about a month ago. The call disconnected me 3 times before connecting the 4th time. It worries me that it took 4 times to get my one poll questions… I almost didn’t answer.
I LOVE EDUCATING PEOPLE ON MATHEMATICAL SUBJECTS!!! I LOVE SHOWING PEOPLE HOW TO INTERPERET SAMPLE SIZES!!!! BETTER INFORMED DATA-DRIVEN DECISION MAKING YIPPPEEEE 🥰🥰🥰🥳🥳🥳
this isnt sarcastic lol i just think it's funny to type that in all caps
I LOVE TEACHING ABOUT THE LIMITATIONS AND PREDICTIVE POWERS OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTIC MODELS RAHHHHH 🦅🦅🦅🦅🦅
At this point, I just want the winner of the popular vote to also win the electoral college.
I don't think anyone would except it otherwise.
I fail to recognise any benefits to polling. Unless wasting money, time, and promoting whatever narrative people want to use, collect or twist polling data is the goal
okay the weights portion explains why there were so many headlines about education, they weren't commenting on the polling
*Poll #1:* Who's tired of hearing about polling? 😅
99% say no!
i dont get polled i just get slammed with a dozen automated campaign texts daily
After understanding how low the response rate is, guess you can’t really blame the polls. Thanks Vox, great job
It's odd they just don't have surveyors hit the streets and ask random people in person. Probably would cost too much.
Polls are cooked
Ikr
I live near Siena Collage. I'm low key miffed that they never included me when collecting their sample populations 😋
Let's unite to overcome Trump's divisive era on November 5, 2024, driven by our shared love for America. It's time to break free from the toxic cycle of hatred & intolerance that has come to define 'Trump Derangement Syndrome' - a phenomenon where rational thinking gives way to blind disdain!!!!!
If I’m polled on the phone, I wouldn’t even be honest about who I support - I’d tell them I support the other candidate in the hope that a bad poll number would motivate more people on my side to eventually vote.
Or you could have them lose hope and not even bother voting because the race is already decided anyway
Childish and idiotic
@@SirSX3 2016 taught me that it is absolutely not the case
Vox's understanding of the margin of error is wrong. The real number does not have to be in the margin of error. And there is no probability that it falls in the margin of error, it either is in the confidence interval or it is not.
Excellent explainer. Thank you!
Nice video💯
Well… well… well… what do we have here 😅
Very informative. I was wondering where polling data came from generally and how it was collected. I’m glad I came across this video ✅
Polls come down to methodology.
Firms can do widely different and inconsistent methodologies which affect the results.
The polls are fairly accurate, but when the margins are razor-thin they are not accurate enough to predict the outcome.
Who are the people picking up the phone
It would be interesting to go into depth on various polls. What was the raw data vs the weighed sample. How do polls today compare to polls in 2016 / 2020 / 2022? Why did those polls not get right? Have things been corrected? Over corrected? Are there other factors we are missing?
It’s a logical fallacy to assume because something has always happened in the past that it will always happen that way.
they did mention how they now weight against college education in polling due to Trump's win with the uneducated in 2016
I was doing an online survey and was disqualified as soon as I put i voted 3rd party so I'm assuming biasness goes into these polls too.
Omg i've learned more about statistics and survey in this short video compared to my classes in college.
Polling is still important for campaign on where should they direct the limited resources.
In an ideal world, they show court all voter instead of just selected swing states...
Unfortunately, our electoral system is set up in such a way that it makes more sense to focus effort in certain states....
Statistician here, the conclusion to just ignore everything and wait came out of nowhere. :P
Nate Silver has built an entire model that doesn't say anything.
There is also a matter of the biases of the people who would be willing to answer a poll in the first place. I can't imagine a lot of Gen Z getting a random phone call and be willing to answer what their political opinion is, and statistically speaking, Gen Zs are more likely to vote for Kamala Harris. This is but one factor that might cause the polls to be inaccurate.
Polymarket >>> In this age of technology, normal polls are dinosaurs.
poly market has foreigners on it so like it ain’t accurate
Got it... So polling is a tiny sample size that has a formula to attempt mimicking a bigger size... Go vote ya'll
Were some of the graphs made using manim?
Great work Vox!
If you're a Democrat: What you want to hear.
If you're a Realist: Not much.
Bro im studying for my ATAR Math Methods exam and its legit just everything in this video lol
Good luck with your VCE exams!!!
@ WACE here, but ty!
It doesnt.
So basically statistics is like: Yeah this may or may not happen idk.
3:18 It's called waiting.
Polls have always been known to practically be useless no?
Weird thing is I don’t know which party you’re talking about
I learned a lot of this in stats
So, the weighting is the hardest part?
Excellent basic statistics 📊 lesson!
IF you had a 1 time donation option I'd gladly pay that.