It is common to confuse symptoms of inflation with its cause. An increase in wages may be an effect of inflation but it is not the cause. The cause of inflation is a too rapid increase in the money supply by the Federal Reserve. Continued deficit spending by the Federal Government will eventually put pressure on the Federal Reserve to monetize our debt, and this move will in turn lead to a substantial increase in the rate of inflation.
I think lack of productivity could also cause inflation. Notice how many people have to work at one place to do what one person used to do in the past. I went to the dentist office one dentist and five staffers to do secretarial and Tech work. In the '80s my dentist had one secretary that also did the tech work.
@@duanejackson6718my sense of the era of hyper inflation in Zimbabwe is that the causes were a combination of money printing, government corruption on a grand scale, and a profound lack of productivity. They lost their currency and have never been able to regain it or the levels of productivity in the 70s when the Rhodesian dollar was stronger than the US dollar. By 2009, the inflation rate hit around 90 sextillion percent and month on month inflation peaked at 80 billion percent.
Federal reserve doesn't really increase money supply. Commercial banks and fiscal spending does. Federal Reserve does help enable it, but it's not really up to them how much money gets created and spent. You're right that might change one day of they have to monetize debt. Can't they also just keep increasing their balance sheet, too?
I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Kathleen Chandler
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
What impresses me most about Kathleen Chandler is how well she explains basic concept of winning before actually letting you use her trade signals. This goes a long way to ensure winning trades.
The thing is though, if the stock market bubble pops all those gold miner stocks will drop too. They might rebound rapidly and do very very very well over a period after the big bubble, but I'm still relucatant to think right now is the time to swing at the fat pitch.
I rarely see any mention of what a larger war would do to the dollar, and therefore Gold as well. It seems that when the $ goes up, Gold has a hard time rising. If there is fear, and money from abroad is coming into the $, would gold also rise in that circumstance? Not discussing the effects of war on these 2 assets seems to be somewhat negligent.
14:00 minutes of the video: How nice of you guys and Bloomberg to show a chart when gold was at an all time low of $275 USD in the year 2000. If the chart was from 1980 to 2000 the chart would be in the opposite direction as gold was $850.00.
Reduce the ads pace.... I like your contents and knew you from David's interviews. This is the first video I see from your own channel and probably look for more, but if you keep this pace of ads, which is more aggressive than other channels, you'll lose watchers, or at least that's how I see it..
Silver to $60 an oz. When Walmart starts selling monsters boxes of Maple Leafs... it's time!!! We can only hope of a capitulation in gold prices when the market crashes = fed pivot = inflation/devaluation of USD = gold to 5k = miners to the moon 🚀
Always be skeptical of time frames when looking at returns. Just as you have pointed out, go back 5 years or move 5 years in the future and see what happens. If we measure the return of tech stock starting In 99 they are a terrible investment... But start in 2001 and the returns are phenomenal... I'm sorry if my dates are off. I'm just going off the top of my head.
it's too bad money wasn't backed by gold then you could just save it in the shoe box, no exchange fees then either. historically the S&P doubles every 7 years and that's pretty tough to beat.
@@Erikpdx if I had to bet on one or the other I would say gold, but if they keep up with money creation the S&P could go a lot higher. That's why I've switched over to bitcoin, I am almost 100% in BTC.
over the next 3 years the bubble could pop and S&P500 return even higher afterwards. if inflation expectation disappear and we go in deflation gold will go down @@Erikpdx .
There is the belief that the miners are gold on steroids during gold bull markets but that chart was an eye opener - showing clearly that this only happens for short periods and rarely at that.
Miners lag bullion. Both have not received any attention from the financial community. Now, is the time to buy miners, when everybody hates mining. Miners will outperform bullion on a percentage basis.
Since 2008 - around $855 an ounce, Return has been over 6% compounded. Simple Interest - (which is what owning actual Treasuries offer) has been about 9% per year, and No Yearly Tax. Now What Bond that you would Safely Buy, has those type of Returns? Await your comment.
Apparently AU is the best performing asset since 197 0 or over the past 25 years. So investors should hold 5 to 10% of their portfolio in it? Sounds like rather weak conviction when it comes to putting money down. Even if returns are outsized, that's not going to do much for your portfolio
The dollar is still and will be for another decade the healthiest horse at the glue factory. All other countries currencies are in even worse shape. Gold is like house insurance.
Yep. Notice foreign countries are aren't piling into other currencies as they divest slowly from dollars. They don't trust themselves nor then they do the dollar
John Hathaway 's figures seems outdated. Ni, Roe, gross margin for last 2 years are impressive. Cost escalations due to inflation is not a the reason for miners to be non performing. Perhap its the erratic price movement to blame. If you try chasing it you got burned.
Yes, you are correct - it is going down for the time being. But once the Fed starts monetizing the debt again, inflation will go up and stay up for many years.
Nice to see some old guys yammer about boomer coins and boomer coin miners. If I was going to gamble with my money, crypto is the way to go. IMO the sector no longer has liquidity since boomers are too old to speculate in this sector anymore.
It's funny you slander boomers and gold when boomers themselves don't like gold. Your 'crypto' is completely worthless. Gold is king and always will be.
Using words like gamble and speculation, this is wealth preservation. You probably haven’t had your head handed to you in a roaring bear market, hope you never do.
Absolutely brilliant discussion gentleman. Thanks Mr. Oakley and Mr. Hathaway
It is common to confuse symptoms of inflation with its cause. An increase in wages may be an effect of inflation but it is not the cause. The cause of inflation is a too rapid increase in the money supply by the Federal Reserve. Continued deficit spending by the Federal Government will eventually put pressure on the Federal Reserve to monetize our debt, and this move will in turn lead to a substantial increase in the rate of inflation.
I think lack of productivity could also cause inflation. Notice how many people have to work at one place to do what one person used to do in the past. I went to the dentist office one dentist and five staffers to do secretarial and Tech work. In the '80s my dentist had one secretary that also did the tech work.
Increased money supply and increased credit
@@duanejackson6718my sense of the era of hyper inflation in Zimbabwe is that the causes were a combination of money printing, government corruption on a grand scale, and a profound lack of productivity. They lost their currency and have never been able to regain it or the levels of productivity in the 70s when the Rhodesian dollar was stronger than the US dollar. By 2009, the inflation rate hit around 90 sextillion percent and month on month inflation peaked at 80 billion percent.
Federal reserve doesn't really increase money supply. Commercial banks and fiscal spending does. Federal Reserve does help enable it, but it's not really up to them how much money gets created and spent. You're right that might change one day of they have to monetize debt. Can't they also just keep increasing their balance sheet, too?
Totally agree & I think these two well seasoned gentlemen are well aware of that.
How Oxbow doesn't have a million subscribers is beyond me. Great information guys. Keep it up and the reward will come.
They earned 5% last year while stocks jumped 50%.
Probably because they block access to their website.
Mr. Ferguson explained recent macro events as clearly and sensibly as anyone I’ve heard. He’s right there with the great Lacy Hunt. Thank you.
I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Kathleen Chandler
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
You trade with Kathleen Chandler too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
What impresses me most about Kathleen Chandler is how well she explains basic concept of winning before actually letting you use her trade signals. This goes a long way to ensure winning trades.
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
fxchandler 💯 ..that's it
I always tune in, but this is your best episode, hands down. Lots of stuff to continue thinking about.
Another great interview. Thanks Ted.
The thing is though, if the stock market bubble pops all those gold miner stocks will drop too. They might rebound rapidly and do very very very well over a period after the big bubble, but I'm still relucatant to think right now is the time to swing at the fat pitch.
Fair enough. Start stacking.
Thanks Ted ❤
END THE FED. Gold is money💰.
Thanks guys
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
I rarely see any mention of what a larger war would do to the dollar, and therefore Gold as well. It seems that when the $ goes up, Gold has a hard time rising. If there is fear, and money from abroad is coming into the $, would gold also rise in that circumstance? Not discussing the effects of war on these 2 assets seems to be somewhat negligent.
Thank you very much...
14:00 minutes of the video: How nice of you guys and Bloomberg to show a chart when gold was at an all time low of $275 USD in the year 2000. If the chart was from 1980 to 2000 the chart would be in the opposite direction as gold was $850.00.
Reduce the ads pace.... I like your contents and knew you from David's interviews. This is the first video I see from your own channel and probably look for more, but if you keep this pace of ads, which is more aggressive than other channels, you'll lose watchers, or at least that's how I see it..
Silver to $60 an oz. When Walmart starts selling monsters boxes of Maple Leafs... it's time!!! We can only hope of a capitulation in gold prices when the market crashes = fed pivot = inflation/devaluation of USD = gold to 5k = miners to the moon 🚀
S&P500 in the long run (at least 30 years) outpace Gold.
Always be skeptical of time frames when looking at returns.
Just as you have pointed out, go back 5 years or move 5 years in the future and see what happens.
If we measure the return of tech stock starting In 99 they are a terrible investment... But start in 2001 and the returns are phenomenal... I'm sorry if my dates are off. I'm just going off the top of my head.
it's too bad money wasn't backed by gold then you could just save it in the shoe box, no exchange fees then either. historically the S&P doubles every 7 years and that's pretty tough to beat.
S&P is in bubble territory while gold is arguably cheap- so which one has a higher return probability over the next 3 years?
@@Erikpdx if I had to bet on one or the other I would say gold, but if they keep up with money creation the S&P could go a lot higher. That's why I've switched over to bitcoin, I am almost 100% in BTC.
over the next 3 years the bubble could pop and S&P500 return even higher afterwards. if inflation expectation disappear and we go in deflation gold will go down @@Erikpdx .
How should silver behave during the next recession?
The case for gold as highly liquid is not true. It really depends on how you store it. If you keep it at home it's not as liquid as cash.
If u keep cash at home it looses value, and when u need real liquidity it’s digital anyway
of course gold outperform the SP500 if you start in march 2000. Stock market wasin a bubble and gold was low
I wish they had touched on the Silver Market.
Dead market
Why buy miners when it is clear in the long term, that gold itself out performed equities and that includes gold shares?
Who said but miners for long term? Buy when they are cheap. Sell when they are high
There is the belief that the miners are gold on steroids during gold bull markets but that chart was an eye opener - showing clearly that this only happens for short periods and rarely at that.
Miners lag bullion. Both have not received any attention from the financial community. Now, is the time to buy miners, when everybody hates mining. Miners will outperform bullion on a percentage basis.
I look at it as a trade, not a long term hold.
Not sure about the Canadian mint these days while Trudeau is at the helm... Hial Trudeau! ✋
Why don’t the miners put gold on their balance sheets?
PM miners must be the most obvious investment in recent history.
What is private equity?
Companies that take investor money and buy other assets that may be profitable to them.
Since 2008 - around $855 an ounce, Return has been over 6% compounded.
Simple Interest - (which is what owning actual Treasuries offer) has been about 9% per year, and No Yearly Tax.
Now What Bond that you would Safely Buy, has those type of Returns?
Await your comment.
Crickets😂😂😂😂
It’s legacy wealth, something my father- in-law is not interested in. I prefer to leave it to my grandchildren, not bonds.
Apparently AU is the best performing asset since 197 0 or over the past 25 years. So investors should hold 5 to 10% of their portfolio in it?
Sounds like rather weak conviction when it comes to putting money down. Even if returns are outsized, that's not going to do much for your portfolio
It's not the best performing asset, and it's cyclical
The dollar is still and will be for another decade the healthiest horse at the glue factory. All other countries currencies are in even worse shape. Gold is like house insurance.
Yep. Notice foreign countries are aren't piling into other currencies as they divest slowly from dollars. They don't trust themselves nor then they do the dollar
John Hathaway 's figures seems outdated. Ni, Roe, gross margin for last 2 years are impressive. Cost escalations due to inflation is not a the reason for miners to be non performing. Perhap its the erratic price movement to blame. If you try chasing it you got burned.
Me thinketh agree that the minds of., these guys are definitely better than any..........AI!@!?😜🙂😉
SprottUS, he means?
Inflation is dead. Watch Steve Hanke, you can learn what inflation is.
Yes, you are correct - it is going down for the time being. But once the Fed starts monetizing the debt again, inflation will go up and stay up for many years.
@@daves2520 Not until 2026, at least. Monetary policy acts with long lags.
Yes, I agree - it will be awhile.@@issenvan1050
Nice to see some old guys yammer about boomer coins and boomer coin miners. If I was going to gamble with my money, crypto is the way to go. IMO the sector no longer has liquidity since boomers are too old to speculate in this sector anymore.
It's funny you slander boomers and gold when boomers themselves don't like gold. Your 'crypto' is completely worthless. Gold is king and always will be.
Using words like gamble and speculation, this is wealth preservation. You probably haven’t had your head handed to you in a roaring bear market, hope you never do.
Wow, you are showing your lack of wisdom and ignorance here.
John's audio is too unclear to listen unfortunately