Brentford Hope has been off the track for 193 days, has never won a Class 1 hurdle, and has never won in good ground. RUBAUD at just six years of age is open to more improvement and ticks all the boxes. However, I’d give RUBAUD a 39% chance, which means you’d want a minimum of 2.54 for a +EV. So probably not a race to play in. FORWARD PLAN could be worth a bet in the 3.30, though. A 19% chance offered at very generous odds.
Brentford Hope's record after a break for Harry Derham reads 1, 1, 2. The "2" when also running to form. If anything the 193 day break is imo in his favour. The horse is also said to want softer because most of its wins have come on a lot softer. Yet his best performance on the flat was arguably his 3 1/2 lengths 4th in a Windsor listed race won by Centenary Dream, who next start was beaten 3/4 length by Tilsit (who'd come from being a head 2nd in the Group 1 D'Ispahan). That Windsor race on officially "Good" actually beat RP Standard by 0.4 seconds - so at or very close to true good-firm. So although there is a chance Good ground won't suit him over hurdles, the chance of doing so is imo less than it might seem... And if acting on the surface the added emphasis Good ground on a sharp track places on speed should be in his favour. Sometimes he's appeared to barely stay 2m. Brentford Hope's best performance over hurdles was last time out on the soundest surface he's run on over obstacles - is improving. Carrying top weight of 11-12, Sometimes top weights in handicaps show form good enough to win Class 1s. Brentford Hope beaten 5 lengths, but was trying to give the winner Daddy Long Legs 8 lbs. Daddy went on to win a Grade 3 "Class 1" hurdle by 16 lengths. My 100% book is: Rubaud 52.5% 10/11, Brentford Hope 36.5% 7/4 and Aspire Tower 11% 8/1. I've backed Brentford Hope @ 5/2 with a half saver on Rubaud @ 11/10. You've got a good price with Forward Plan. He's one I like but only made him a full saver along with the other main Honeyball horse Lord Baddesley. My two main bets are the front two in the betting - Changing Man and Lord Accord - whose combined chance I believe should be odds-on in what I believe is an uncompetitive handicap.
Love a difference of opinion, Mark. It inches us all a little bit closer to a bigger picture, and challenges any sub-conscious bias we may have. Should be a good race. I’m looking forward to three today (this being one of them).
I wanted to bet Skyjack Hijack cause ran bet number every start but slept in & he actually paid 7/5. Made it in time for Kelce who was back in a week and tried to gas them running 2nd. Best luck tomorrow as lots of prices!
Booooom 🎉 !
Well done 👏 mr Harris
Thank you ❤
Brentford Hope has been off the track for 193 days, has never won a Class 1 hurdle, and has never won in good ground. RUBAUD at just six years of age is open to more improvement and ticks all the boxes. However, I’d give RUBAUD a 39% chance, which means you’d want a minimum of 2.54 for a +EV. So probably not a race to play in.
FORWARD PLAN could be worth a bet in the 3.30, though. A 19% chance offered at very generous odds.
Yeah Brentford needs juice in the ground so i wouldnt touch it today - mentioned by several tipsters Ribaud preferred
Brentford Hope's record after a break for Harry Derham reads 1, 1, 2. The "2" when also running to form. If anything the 193 day break is imo in his favour. The horse is also said to want softer because most of its wins have come on a lot softer. Yet his best performance on the flat was arguably his 3 1/2 lengths 4th in a Windsor listed race won by Centenary Dream, who next start was beaten 3/4 length by Tilsit (who'd come from being a head 2nd in the Group 1 D'Ispahan). That Windsor race on officially "Good" actually beat RP Standard by 0.4 seconds - so at or very close to true good-firm. So although there is a chance Good ground won't suit him over hurdles, the chance of doing so is imo less than it might seem... And if acting on the surface the added emphasis Good ground on a sharp track places on speed should be in his favour. Sometimes he's appeared to barely stay 2m.
Brentford Hope's best performance over hurdles was last time out on the soundest surface he's run on over obstacles - is improving. Carrying top weight of 11-12, Sometimes top weights in handicaps show form good enough to win Class 1s. Brentford Hope beaten 5 lengths, but was trying to give the winner Daddy Long Legs 8 lbs. Daddy went on to win a Grade 3 "Class 1" hurdle by 16 lengths.
My 100% book is: Rubaud 52.5% 10/11, Brentford Hope 36.5% 7/4 and Aspire Tower 11% 8/1.
I've backed Brentford Hope @ 5/2 with a half saver on Rubaud @ 11/10.
You've got a good price with Forward Plan. He's one I like but only made him a full saver along with the other main Honeyball horse Lord Baddesley. My two main bets are the front two in the betting - Changing Man and Lord Accord - whose combined chance I believe should be odds-on in what I believe is an uncompetitive handicap.
Love a difference of opinion, Mark.
It inches us all a little bit closer to a bigger picture, and challenges any sub-conscious bias we may have. Should be a good race. I’m looking forward to three today (this being one of them).
Great preview Stephen - good luck everyone 🙏
Thank you so very much mr Harris
I wanted to bet Skyjack Hijack cause ran bet number every start but slept in & he actually paid 7/5. Made it in time for Kelce who was back in a week and tried to gas them running 2nd. Best luck tomorrow as lots of prices!
All the best guys 🎉
Nicky Henderson has a lot of runners but I can't find Peaky. Typo?
Y apols taken out, ground too quick presumably
🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉 i am from srilanka 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Korker for me .
I like it but just doest win