Is Hip Fire Actually Random? (Call of Duty Science)
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- Опубліковано 1 лют 2019
- The underlying mechanisms that determine if a hip fire shot will hit its target are not well understood by most of the community. I did scientific testing to discover what is really doing on. What I found was quite unexpected...
Here is the link to the data: drive.google.com/file/d/1Oe7Nf5y9tZxMlrC9iUosa3Q-NtMdgsXq .
Make sure to open it using Sheets to see the formulas corresponding to certain cells. Some of the data are missing and some are a bit messy, but it's all I could find. - Ігри
![Does GFUEL Actually Boost Gaming Performance? [Placebo-Controlled Experiment]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/dKm2r0uj27U/mqdefault.jpg)
7:28 GET DOWN MR. PRESIDENT
But.....He's..."Saved". Good one
GET DOWN MRS. OBAMA
@@p0l4r15 holdup
Tru hero
This is no bad thing - rewards accuracy while hip-firing. What a huge amount of work though! Great video!
This man deserves so much more attention. He spent hours working on a simple question and he only has 8k subs?????? I loved this video and if you are watching this, please spread this UA-camr around because just based on this video alone, he deserves so much more.
He’s trash
Vcauce 2 can’t tell if sarcasm or not
31k now
What a bot comment
Torlak Kårstad well he’s allowed an opinion tbh
As a FPS player with decades under my belt, it's rather odd seeing all of this laid out. It's like learning how to change a car tire on your own, and then some hobo just walks up and replaces the other three. I feel uncomfortable, and aroused.
Why would you assume a homeless person could not do something you can?
Aroused
?
@@Headmanbug right wtf
I do not understand this analogy at all
Found you through your Lego star wars video, it literally doesn't make sense how you haven't blown up.
12:45 this hypothesis gets alot more confusing once you start realizing two things about battlefield 3.
1. That every single bullet has a calculated trajectory and travel time.
2. Being 'suppresed' (As in: taking indirect fire) reduces the accuracy of the gun. HOWEVER, if you take into account the second point, and personal of shotguns outright not hitting direct targets when supressed (I have tested it before with friends. Its safe to conclude that this radius of accuracy might also be adding a random radius from the players body...in that when i fire the shotgun, their is a specific radius from the players body it can randomise in, this radius from the player gets larger when supressed and thus the potential circle the players shotgun can randomly hit surpasses the games field of view, meaning that in some cases...you can shoot someone, point blank, with a shotgun, and sometimes it miss...and thats why bf3 was bullshit sometimes.
People didn’t know that the shots would more likely hit the centre of a target? Damn that shocked me.
If it was completely random accross the whole target (as in every spot is equally likely) instead of how it is (where it's calculated how far from the middle and then in what direction from the middle) it would make sense that it wouldn't matter where you would hit. But it also makes intuitive sense that the middle is the most likely place for it to be for a number of reasons but since it's a video game you can't always be sure and therefore it's good that he did the testing (not that I figure you'd think it was bad that he tested all this regardless) that's why science is good, sometimes you think something works one way but actually works another way or you were correct and you can prove it!
I haven’t seen any gameplay of BO4 since the beta and I’m convinced that this is just mw2019 but with everyone on LSD
higher ttk too
Can we just appreciate that they put a plane on a gun
Oh you mean the A-10?
The turns have tabled
@@ridhosamudro2199 BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
Nugcon good one 🤣
"I still didn't know why the center of the cross hairs were still more favored" BECAUSE THAT'S WHERE THE GUN IS P O I N T E D
yea lol. hip firing a gun has the same accuracy as aiming down sights in real life. the inaccuracy comes from the recoil of the gun re-positioning your aim
found your stuff through that new gravity video, I really like these experimental videos love your work man
I'm a tomato when you watched it and didn’t even know he did it until this comment
It makes you think more of how much effort is put into a game and shows how coders are geniuses at making things like random hit for bullets
this channel is the definition of underated i hope you grow big one day :)
I know I'm about 3 years late to the party and I haven't played COD since Advanced Warfare but this video was so well-researched and fascinating!
I’ve been playing so much Titanfall that at 3:37 I was confused for a second why he didn’t do a triple wallrun and double jump of a roof into an enemy
Titanfall 2 is a great game
Honestly Titanfall is much better game
I feel like Titanfall 2 is overrated, theres better shooters out there, but not better shooters with the wall running mechanics
DDM Gamer no it is the greatest fps of our era. It favours skill while noobs can still get kills, but never feels broken, it’s cheap, it never presses microtransactions, but the ones thta aren’t there are 3 dollar packs for about 40 plus good looking skins. There’s no really op weapons, and the movement is incredibly clean. The only bad part is player counts
@@neonicplays that's your opinion
That is one reason why I tell people keep ur target centered while hip firing. I knew it couldn’t be completely random glad I know for sure now. Great vid man.
12:00 so civilized
This video was great, and I don't even play CoD or BF.
I love that you had people who dislike numbers and statistics skip to the very end of the video!
Some quality content right here. No wonder your number subscribers are increasing exponentially!
3:19 , an absence of statistical significance is not the same as an absence of a relationship. Significance only indicates a lower probability of error. Any two groups of different mean values can have significance, given a high enough sample size. Needed sample sizes can be calculated using a power calculator. The effect size, within a significant result, is what indicates the strength of a variable, in this case aim assist. TL;DR, the absence of significance does not indicate a lack of a relationship, a conclusive type of result, but rather inconclusive findings - there may or may not be a relationship
Well look who took ap stats
This is becoming one of my favorite channels...
More info I never new I wanted, thank you
From a game design perspective, i can see how uniform radial distribution makes total sense, true randomness would detract too much.
It helps people for which the pinpoint accuracy of iron sights becomes troublesome, but still can have someone on the center of the crosshair while hip-firing
Uniform distribution would be harder to code and would make less sense gameplay and realism.
Radial distribution is quite simple. You just take uniform distribution of angles and distance. For totally uniform distribution you have to scew the results in with some trick to make center less likely target. (It's possible to do but a lot more complicated).
It makes less sense for realism, since most people instinctively assumes, that things closer to the cross here are more likely to be hit. (This generally correlates with people's experiance with aiming in real life)
It makes less for gameplay wise, since uniform distribution gives no reward for aiming (other than just generally pointing the gun at the right direction) You don't have to track the traget with the crosshair, just with the circle of bullet distribution requiring much less skill.
I studied statistics and you've done a great job my man. Amazing video!
Can we all just agree that this guy needs so many more subs than what he has? I mean , the amount of effort that went in to get all of this data is unbelievable! Keep doing what you are doing and i'm sure great things will come
So glad I found this channel :D
The uniform radial distribution makes more sense from a gameplay perspective than a uniform area distribution: it rewards accuracy, even in hipfire. With a uniform area distribution, it doesn't matter where in the crosshairs you put the target.
I love how you added ahoy channel video part
I love that you do this
In utterly amazed by this video and the effort that went into it. While you laid out your first batch of data my mind wandered off to think of the way I would design bullet spread (hobby dev and programmer here). I immediately settled on the method you later described. For a moment I was happy then I realized it would favor the center of the circle. I thought that was actually a nice behavior, it seems to make sense when bullets are less likely to completely miss the target. Then you described your confusion and started detailing how much effort you went through to come to a solid conclusion. It's just good science. Testing and retesting. I respect that. And the fact that you went through all of this on a topic that really has little to no significance, but it just mattered so much to you... damn It's kinda beautiful. How many hours did this take you?
I’d guess maybe 60 hours or so total from idea phase to publication over the course of a month. I don’t really keep track. But thanks for the kind words!
Awesome video 😎👌🔥 although I would've put the visual analysis of the spread patterns first - > then formed a hypothesis - > then tested it. By not doing so the video felt just a bit drawn out just for random statistics sake.
But anyway very cool video and awesome work 😁
Awesome Work! Hope you grow up soon.
Hey, what is the music you used around 15:20 ?
Is that The Algorithm ?
And great work !
I love the fact that you put the bo2 music as backround music
I am nowhere close to good enough at math to do anything like this. But thank you for being our hero
Good video bro, I was surprised when I'd realised I'd watched a 17 minute video
I think the fourth suggestion make the most sense as being the true in game model.
The beginning looks like the beginning of a bad mobile ad.
Great video loved the time and effort the intro was a little weird but other than that amazing video
Upper Echelon Gamers had a video that called out Activision when someone leaked information form them that these features, including aiming is modified by an algorithm depending on a players' data information, Kills per second, Kill Death Ratio, Accuracy, Ratio of won and played matches.
The algorithm modifies how your game plays, if you aim at an enemy ADS or Hip, depending on the player, the game will intentionally make a small slide when your crosshairs or sights targets a player so that you miss, the chance of hitting with Hip Fire, the damage that player receives, the damage you receive when you're hit, and THE HITBOX SIZE.
If you win more matches, these conditions will be turned against you, so you'll be turned into a big thin glass box, while everyone with a lower win ratio is a tiny homing bullet minigun.
I think that probably decreases the more you stay further from the center which is quite realistic
Also the different recoil changes this for example some of the higher recoil guns only really have a recoil the first couple shots sometimes depending on how close together said shots are fired and even at full auto only the first 3 or 4 shots are at max recoil so if you shot the first 3 or 4 shots as you aim at your target once you actually get to your target your gun has begun to shoot more accurately which would make the bullets feel more magnetic in a sense I think it's to keep some of the less accurate guns from feeling useless especially when getting flinched from a decent distance i think it's to balance the LEss accurate guns to still make them usable at a certain point or strategy against the rest of the guns
So- question. I remember using the DSR over the ballista because hip fire was more on target. They have basically the same crosshairs so why would I think that??
I always thought it always shot in the very centre, but hip fire allows you to walk faster yet not being quite as sure as to exactly where you are aiming
While aiming gives the more focused crosshair, and slower movement
The way random shots are coded is also closer to reality, where shots land more or less in a possion distribution, than what you call "true randomness"
Halo games have something similar, bullet magnetism
If your crosshair is red (aiming at an enemy at a certain distance) bullets track the enemy by a certain amount
In the game Dirty Bomb it also seems to have a bias in the shape of a plus
Malumy Dirty Bomb was a wasted opportunity.
i don't even play cod, but good science is fun to watch
This video is incredible! The amount of effort put into your testing was really refreshing to see when the CoD community is full of people who just like to make unfounded claims about how the game works lol. That being said, I feel like the radially distributive nature of bullet spread was rather obvious... There are plenty of graphics online that demonstrate spread being skewed towards the center of your hip fire crosshairs, and I think the average person could guess that something like that is happening from playing the game, yet for the majority of the video you operated under the assumption that hip fire is completely random. For a game like Fortnite, which utilizes a system that fits this hypothesis more closelier, it makes more sense to form your hypothesis from there, but probably not this game. So why?
Thank you! Having just passed statistics with a B last semester, I knew exactly what you were talking about!
Very well made video
This also means that the more enemies in your crosshair, you should land 100% of shots way before it makes sense to.
you deserve more subs
there should be a dot in the center of the crosshair like in titanfall 2, which I also noticed has hipfire favor the center of the crosshair MUCH more than the edges of the area covered by the crosshair. I'm guessing in titanfall, that this is an intentional design decisions, some players are often moving very fast. Players are much less incentivized to aim down sights quite as often because it can slow down the pace of the game, which isn't all that fun. And the targets are incredibly far away, its not uncommon for players to get into fights with submachine guns at ranges that would favor semiautomatic rifles in other games. Also, even on PC, I feel like there is very slight bullet magnetism, again, because players can move so incredibly quickly and fight at long ranges.
How about things like the gshot and yying and other "noscope methods" how would they come to play
If anyone doesn't have the time to watch the whole thing: "you have a better chance of hitting if you aim at the enemy"
Crazy stuff, huh. Never would have guessed
*Much better than matpat.*
I understand your math. I wish they would overhaul these systems. They're unrealistic and primitive for a simulation of realistic ballistic weapons.
I feel like i'm watching a VSauce video.... and i love it!
One question I have here is whether the distribution is in fact flat, or whether, like Minecraft, it is Gaussian. (Fun fact, this means, however unlikely, it is possible for projectiles in Minecraft to miss by even 180 degrees! I.E. Even relatively accurate projectiles will in theory have omnidirectional groupings. Meaning that yes, you can miss with a crossbow at point blank if you are very unlucky.
Nice to see the COD boys getting their own Asumsaus
Watching this a year later but I can attest for this that the hipfire is more likely to hit the center in COD. In recent times I have started to use hipfire way more due to how “consistent” it feels as long as you aim for center mass at closer ranges with hipfire.
so i know this video is really old, but... well, im not really interested in black ops 4, im just interested in the data. if its too much trouble thats okay, but do you still have the exact data from this video available?
Yeah, I do. Here is a link: drive.google.com/file/d/1Oe7Nf5y9tZxMlrC9iUosa3Q-NtMdgsXq
You unfortunately have to log into a Google account and open the Excel file in Sheets to see the formulas, but it is anonymous
Aim assist, in most games, only comes into play when you or your target moves near your crosshairs, it you or your target don't move then aim assist has no aiming to assist with.
Loved the video, I hope your channel blows up and get lots more subs :D.
magnetic aim assist of halo would still affect it if they are just touching the crosshair and no one is moving.
@@MacMashPotato Halo's aim was always pretty weird, sometimes it didn't work as intended and sometimes the damn thing would almost lock onto someone lol.
Like when aimed down the site you can really drill an enemy with shots 5 to 10 with the variable depending on wepon but some of the smgs are this way at close to mid range however at distance the first 2 shots work better I dont understand this range to accuracy change seems manipulated not directly based on distance
bro this video is awesome
At 4:03, and affirmed later at 6:04 you begin the with the premise that 'true randomness' is a uniform distribution; akin to a dice-roll. While I understand that to many, "randomness" may be analogized to dice-rolls, that is far from a fair definition of randomness. In fact, in nature, a 'normal distribution' is the most common. Also, *technically* hipfire in video games *isn't* random, since all randomness in video games is handled by pseudorandomness. This is a inherently non-random algorithm, and *can* be predicted. It's just not practical to predict.
7:28 Get down Mr. President!
I see your a fan of the let them come ost as well
I don't evem play cod but this was fun to watch
Like, it would be very easy to accidentally code a very concentraded but not guided bullet grouping. Simply give it an X minute of arc innaccuracy, pick a random radial distance from 0 to X for each shot, and pick a random direction for it to be innaccurate in for each shot. That way, the middle quarter of the area has half the shots. The middle 1% of the area has 10% of the shots, etc.
Does anybody know what was that rifle that looked like a WWII plane?
I understand your theories but you forgot something incredibly important that you showed a retroahoy clip of: max and min angle of randomness. The reason more shots hit is that it's statistically more likely for it to go inside the smaller area of the crosshair, unless I'm missing something
Studying computer science major here...
So what could be happening is it is a system that is truly based on two different numbers. But, then those numbers could be put into a logarithmic scale to slightly favor the center. This reasoning could come from the fact that if you hip fire a gun in real life, most of the time, the bullets will get arbitrarily close to where you think you are aiming. That being said, everyone will still have a one off misjudgment of where you are truly aiming your gun. This way, it is fairly representative of a real life and fairly typical way of calculating what happens when someone fires their weapon without aiming down sights.
Ah, I can see you are a man of Star Wars culture as well...
I came to see if Hip Fire was actually random and i got a Math Class
Slightly unrelated correction: Bullet spread in CS:GO, while affected by recoil patterns (which are static), becomes unpredictable after a certain spread angle.
How does he only have 12k views, this shit is on game theorys level
I could have told you right away without any of the analysis that hip fire isn’t random, as computers aren’t random (setting aside add in cards that create true randomness from an atom vibrating as most, if not all, consumer machines have no such card). All that being said, I loved the analysis and the insights into likely how hip fire is programmed in FPS games.
Wish I could actually focus on what he's talking about... I'm looking at you, 15:50
1:53
Understanding of Black-Ops 4 to its CORE.
What can I say? I like rhymes.
Nice video!
Thank you, kind sir!
Bullet is kinda of spreading from barrel, and not a gun is kicking then shot and kicks again then shots again. Bullet will linear with barreo when firing.
This is refers to Battlefield and Phantom Forces
Very epic thx mister
what's the outro song?
What was the name of the outro song
In a weird way you can think of accuracy being procedural. It is random, but only within given parameters and set of rules.
Discovering warm water. Every battlefield player knows this. Symthic is awesome.
In csgo I believe the snipers also are more likely to shoot the center rather than the middle. Could be the same thing going on here. Makes me wonder how many games do it too.
video: *features Xbox ahoy*
me: subbed
I remember seeing a video like this but I don’t think it’s this video but good video
Epic megamind gamer right here
Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t random just mean everything has an equal chance of hitting? For example, in a CS:GO case, if you have a 1% chance of getting a skin, I’m pretty sure that just means that you have a lower chance of getting it, and not you’ll get it in 100 cases at most? As I said, correct me if I’m wrong, but I swear that was how it worked. (The accuracy is for sure not random, I’m just saying maybe the first tests aren’t exactly correct?)
Random in this context means there is no way to predict whether a shot will hit or not. There are probabilities involved which skew the numbers and make a prediction more likely to be true, but you can never be certain of anything. Therefore, hip fire is random, but the probabilities of a shot hitting may not be what you expected. I'm not sure what you mean by the first tests being incorrect, though.
I really like this video and the math. But I gotta say you really didn’t account for hitboxes, only visible player area
That being said, awesome video! It was very interesting
Let me guess:
The performance of the gun cares about something like target distance, or it goes in a cyclic pattern of dispersion, or it auto-hits and auto-misses a controllable fraction of the time based on distance and crosshair angle from the target, or otherwise does something no gun should ever fucking do.
first Average pixel now its Sovern Gaming
Heres how hipfire works. You put the gun barrel directly into the enemy then the gun shoot 90 degrees to the right or left
I always just assumed the bullet shot out the gun and if there was a person in front of it then they would get hit
Hi.Indeed the hip fire is not random as you have described in this vid. But it is still random, but the distribution is by radius not by area. so, for example, if the radius of your hip fire is 2 meters on the wall 10 meters away from you, half of the shots would land between 0-1 meter away from the centre of your crosshair, and half would land between 1 and 2 meters away form the centre. the area of the 'inner ' 1 metre radius circle is only 1/4 of the entire hipfire area. Therefore anyyhing placed wtihin the inner 1 meter radius circle would have a much higher chance of being hit, when compared to if placed closer to the edge of the crosshair.
Mathematics and science university people get introduced to gaming:
(Good video though am a nerd myself)
Remember chance doesn't remember it's previous score so it could have a 1 in a million chance of hitting one space yet it hits it a million times in a row so it could just be luck