Go/No-Go Decision in a Bonanza
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- Опубліковано 20 кві 2018
- As the old saying goes, it takes a year to learn how to fly, and then it takes TEN YEARS to learn when NOT to fly. Watch as I discuss the preflight briefing on a day with particularly difficult weather conditions - with strong and gusty winds, unseasonably cold weather, and widespread low overcast.
Geeze, I thought you were going to rationalize, it was safe to fly.
I found myself in suspense saying NO, DON'T GO !!
Good call based on researching data!
Thanks for sharing your process
Thanks, lee.
Looking back, the flight would have been doable - though I didn't know that from the forecast. Actual winds both in Cedar Rapids and Chicago ended up lighter than forecast, with gusts to around 25 or so (instead of 35). But still, it would have not been a very enjoyable flight.
Once on a simple training flight towards earning my CPL back in 1995, a snow squall was going to hit my region in 4 hours so I decided to go for a short 2 hour -round robin SE from the slowly moving winter squall coming from the NW. Well winds picked up and by the time I was headed back to my base, the Area Controller reported 0 visibility. The squall moved so fast I found myself on the edge of it then surrounded by it. I had to fly below 1000 feet AGL(much of it below 500 ft) following roads and rivers to the closest alternate (which had no vor nor ndb and I had no gps). I landed safely but gained a new found respect for mother nature. WX Forecasts are just that. You cannot underestimate how quickly wx can turn on you. Great subject Martin
Those experiences, where we get surprised (or even a little scared) without anybody getting hurt and without bending any metal, are really good - they are eye openers. We are not invincible with our airplanes, and a little reminder of that can be a good thing, as you experienced.
As a newer pilot this content is gold. It’s great to see how someone more experienced makes these calls.
Thanks, Joel. If you haven't seen it yet, you may also like my 3-part series called "Iowa to Florida Flight Planning", which looks at the planning process for a trip (which I then actually flew) in a lot more detail.
Martin Pauly
Yep. I’ve watched that series. It was also very valuable content.
Also a great lesson on how to say NO to a flight, great advice. Well presented.
Thanks, Gary.
Another old saying, It's better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than being in the air wishing you were on the ground.
I made the decision yesterday to cut short by a day, a vacation with my wife in the Sarasota, FL area to be back in Wilmington, NC KILM before the weather associated with a strong low pressure moves across the Southeastern US today. Being in my office watching Martin's video is exactly where I needed to be this morning, not aviating through the weather along the east coast.
I made the right decision.
The concern of making a wrong decision about leaving early for weather, and the weather turns out to be fine should be minor when the alternative decision could be deadly. Which wrong decision would you make!
I'll make the safe one every time. I don't want to be one of "those pilots" I read about in the accident reports, shaking my head while counting the "links in the chain" of poor decisions which leads to an accident.
Another great video Martin!
That's a healthy attitude, Christopher. Good call on your recent trip!
10/10 quality content
Rieley McCall Thanks, Rieley!
Which would you’ve preferred, flying or driving?
Martin Pauly I’d rather a unicycle
Good call! Recognize the Kennedy Expressway in Chi. ;)
Great decision making process, thank you for sharing !
Thank you, Francesco.
Another great and informative video. Always looking forward to see more videos from you as I have learned so much watching them.
Thank you, Abraham. I was wondering how a "flying video" without any flying would be received. But I guess there's something to learn even in the flights we DON'T make - maybe even especially so in those.
Still, I'll try to add more actual flying to the next video. :-)
- Martin
Wow, I continue to learn watching your videos, Martin. That's not surprising given my experience level, but I think I have just about every one of your videos in my favorites folder. When I think back to my initial VFR training in the 90's, the factors to not continue flying were numerous, but mainly the following, Time. Staying proficient at flying takes a lot of time, where you must make it a priority in your life. Family involvement. To make it enjoyable, your family and friends should participate with you. Training. IFR should be a requirement for all pilots to learn from the start. VFR flying is just not practical or safe in most areas of the country. I cannot wait to finally start my IFR training.
Your videos show that routine flying can be possible with the appropriate experience and training. You show that GA flying can be another way to commute and to open up your life to more possibilities and experiences. Thank you for your efforts and insights into flying. And keep up the weather analysis training! That and fear of ATC communication is what stops most of us from continuing! Cost is not the major factor.
Thanks, Stan. I love to travel with my Bonanza, and I am very fortunate that my family enjoys (or at least tolerates) this mode of transportation.
If my videos can help a few pilots that are on the fence to make the step towards longer cross country travel (and do so safely), then I think it's all worthwhile.
Another very informative video. Good decision making keep the ole family safe!
Thanks, Mark.
Thanks for giving us an insight into your decision making process. Great job... Keep the videos coming.
Thanks, Steven.
Me thinks that you made a wise decision, Martin. I certainly wouldn't have flow that path in those conditions.
Spectacular! Thank you.
Thanks! These are excellent and very useful for someone about to start IFR training!
Glad to hear - and good luck for your instrument training, I am sure you will find it very rewarding.
Good call - seen way too many accident reports about going down in bad weather...especially with your family on board.
Right. I usually enjoy a weather challenge, but when too many things are stacked up against me, it's time to look for an alternative. Often, that alternative can be to depart a bit earlier or later, which is an option that wasn't available to us for this Chicago trip.
Added weatherspork to the resource list. Thanks!
Good - I like that site, even though I'm still just beginning to explore it - still scratching at the surface, but I see a lot of potential once I understand it better.
Great decision making. I contended with this storm for my job as a dispatcher and it definitely presented tons of challenges. I don't know how much range your Bonanza has but the weather/low ceilings would have made finding a legal and safe alternate a chore. Best to hop in the car.
I can imagine that must have been an interesting few days in your line of work.
Kansas City would have made a legal alternate at the time I checked, though that's a lot of time in the air for not going where we want to go. :-)
Excellent choice of concert. And, of course, vehicle!
Yup! :-)
- Martin
As a relatively newly minted pilot (March 31st, 2018), I wish ground school courses and instructors made this kind of weather analysis part of their curriculums. As the saying goes, superior pilots use their superior knowledge to prevent them from using their superior skills.
Hi Alex, congratulations on your certificate!
As you are finding out, while you can legally fly and make flying decisions on your own now, there's a lot left to learn. I've been flying for over 30 years, and I am still learning more stuff all the time - it never stops. Fortunately, help is more available today than it was when I first started. The internet with online weather tools, as well as pilot forums where you can discuss flying questions, has become invaluable. Also, you may want to look for an experienced local mentor pilot at your field (EAA chapter, flight school, etc.) who you can call when you are not sure about something. Most pilots will be happy to help, you just have to reach out.
Good luck, and all the best for your flying adventures!
I would have been shocked if you'd chosen to fly in those conditions.
Great weather videos and your lean of peak conversation was excellent.
Thank you, Nuttin' Cowboy!
Glad you chose the car, you was starting to worry me. Good call. Also good to make the decision when you still other other options avilable, leaving it to late will only give the option to go or not go at all.
Exactly. There was less pressure to fly in this case because we had an alternative.
Great video. Very informative. Thanks
Thank you, Frank.
Very informative video have not seen one like that before.
Thanks, Michael. My worry was that a "flying video" without any flying might not be too well received. But I think you are right, that makes it a bit unique.
Very well done. Keep them coming 🍺
Will do - thank you, Gary.
- Martin
Great decision-making. BTW Dvorak conducted by Muti is another great decision 👍. Your videos get better and better! Greetings from Germany 🇩🇪.
Thanks, Radial Chris. Yes, I love the "From the New World" symphony - one of my favorite pieces of music, and wonderfully performed by the CSO.
Excellent vid
As it happened we were trying to get home to Houston from SNF the same day and used WeatherSpork to plan our route. Worked perfectly for KFMY to KPNS to arrive just ahead of the front. Spent the afternoon at the Naval air museum while the front flew overhead, then the to Houston the next day. Thanks to Scott for a great product.
Good planning, and great use of the time while waiting for the front to pass!
- Martin
outstanding...thank you!
Thanks, Brian.
Martin...excellent overview of your thought process. There would fewer NTSB accident reports if more of our fellow pilots were as diligent, thorough, and deliberate as you in go/nogo decision making. Also , liking the weather websites you are sharing...
Thank you - and I agree, it is very sad to read a report of an accident when the accident could have (or SHOULD) have easily been prevented with more awareness of the weather.
Excellent.
Thank you! :-)
Great video Martin. You use a lot of the same wx tools I do. I've been using WeatherSpork for the past month or two and love it. One thing I didn't see you look at is possible wind shear at the destination. With those kind of strong sfc winds out of the east and winds aloft out of the south I'd expect some decent shear at MDW. I would have drove too. ; )
Hi Peter,
Good comment. I'll note wind shear if it's listed in the TAFs (which it wasn't that day); there was an AIRMET for LLWS but as a piston pilot I'm not as worried about those - much easier to react to that than in a jet.
Now, CONVECTIVE wind shear is a whole different story, and nothing I'd like to venture into...
Thanks Martin, looking forward to more of your videos.
Martin, very nice introduction to WeatherSpork (weatherspork.com)...made it very clear the return trip was going to be nasty. But I would encourage you to start using the Imagery view in WeatherSpork instead of using the legacy avwxworkshops.com Internet Wx Brief Roadmap! Honestly, it's much easier to use. Also in the route profile view and meteogram you can filter the G-AIRMETs using that gear button on the upper right. That makes it easier to see the clouds and freezing level and such.
Good decision. I wouldn't even fly my A2A Comanche (flight sim) in that!
Martin, you need some rain-x on your windshield!
Very informative video. The camera is a bit out of focus. But, I enjoy seeing how you plan your flights. Thanks for the video, Martin.
Thank you, Steven.
That day was a bit hectic, between school events in the morning and going to Chicago in the afternoon. I used a much simple audio and video setup to capture this briefing than I normally would - the camera was simply my iPhone.
You had me at the wind for no-go. Also, if you have to drive there and back anyway, why push the envelope to fly?
Good comment/question. We were really tight on time on Saturday, the day we went to Chicago, because we couldn't leave from Cedar Rapids until after 1:00PM. Flying would have given us another hour or two in Chicago prior to the concert - the way it turned out, we arrived in time for the concert but had to cancel or cut short a couple of other activities we were wanting to do before the concert.
Hi Martin. Your videos are very helpful and fun - I've become fascinated with GA and am becoming somewhat proficient with the X-Plane simulator (flying Carenado's Beechcraft A36!). I create flight plans with skyvector.com, but sometimes run into mountains in night or IFR conditions. How can I determine terrain heights for a route? Thanks so much
Hi looseparts,
If you are already familiar with skyvector.com, you'll be able to figure out terrain heights pretty easily. Look for the maximum elevation figures (MEF) on the VFR (sectional) charts, as explained here: ua-cam.com/video/XOqu-wRO_O4/v-deo.html
Then make sure to stay above those altitudes, and you'll be clear or terrain and obstacles.
Similar concepts exist on the IFR charts ("World Lo" in skyvector), where you have published MEAs shown on each airway. They can be a little more complicated; a good explanation is found here: ua-cam.com/video/YbXa54FcXz8/v-deo.html
Have fun flying! :-)
better to be on the ground wishing you were flying, than in the air, wishing you were on the ground.
Very true!
There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are very few old, bold pilots. Wise decision not to fly, especially with your family. How was the Symphony Martin?
The symphony was fantastic. Dvorak's 9th ("From the new world") is one of my favorites.
Hi Martin - Another really great video! I've never seen so much planning for a road trip!
On a serious note, a BIG THANK YOU for the effort you put into these, and who knows? Perhaps they'll save someone's bacon.
One more point: I saw an interesting camera mounting system that basically suspends the camera a few inches in front of your chest - maybe good for panel shots? Here's a link: seldi.co
You can't be too careful driving these days! :-)
That might be a good addition. I've also had a camera mounted on my yoke and used it to capture the panel, it's not perfect but it works.
Whats with this, fly or drive, your passengers sleep through it all?
Yes - driving or flying, they fall asleep... :-)
Actually the no fly decision could probably be made with just the first batch of info. Everything is getting endlessly technical and all this does is use different methods for saying exactly the same thing, at greater expense. The message was clear at the beginning - don't fly today.