Why the USA is windier than Europe?
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- Опубліковано 30 січ 2020
- If you compare an American wind sensor to a European wind sensor measuring the same wind, the American one will show 14% higher maximum sustained wind. Why is that? And why should you care? The root of the issue lies in what this number, the wind speed measurement, means. In this video you will discover the truth about wind readings as well as find out what the forecast numbers really tell you that will change the way you look at them forever.
Wind Meter we use: amzn.to/2RcKO4P
Special thanks to:
Weatherflow: sailflow.com/
Cameron Beccario: earth.nullschool.net/
Windfinder: www.windfinder.com/
Windy: www.windy.com/
Windguru: www.windguru.cz/
ECMWF: www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-...
National Weather Service: www.nssl.noaa.gov/news/resour...
NAM: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access...
GFS: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access...
Luckgrib: luckgrib.com/
SpotVX: spotwx.com/
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Gear we use + discount codes: www.ourkitelife.com/p/gear-we... - Спорт
I came to see kite surfing, I stayed because this was really interesting. Really well done explanation, thanks!
I only liked your comment because your youtube name is awesome
@@surfn- Thanks Luke, I use it for my mountain bike channel.
Thanks!
Love geeking out on your videos! Any windsport enthusiast will enjoy this video because let's be honest, we spend more time checking the wind than anything else!
Haha, so true! Thanks!
That's explains a lot. I sail on the San Francisco bay and the forecast always seems to be off from 5-15 knots. One time is was off by 20 knots that was a very interesting day
The nerd in me loves the video. My wind meter is a tree. It doesn't say what time average it uses.
Indy tree would be instantaneous, therefore less reliable descriptor of a current wind state
what @Our Kite Life said, but also - a tree isn't a forecast, it's indication
Wow, a ton of information and research to put this all together. My first thought was how did you possibly get this done in a week, but I suspect you have been working on this one for some time. Fantastic job!
yes it took more than a month and we are still chatting with ECMWF on this issue. It appears so far that model average output some sort of average both temporal and spatial, but nobody knows exactly what it is. Kind of interesting.
Great info. Thanks. The takeaway for me is that wind varies. Topography matters. Nothing is worse than a “ Hindenberging “ kite. If the range between lulls and gusts is wide - say 10-15 knots - that’s crappy wind. Trade winds are the most steady in my experience. The North Pacific High is like a giant fan in summer. We’re all just looking for a pressure drop.
Thanks! All good points :)
Well done. Everytime I think your videos cannot get any better you blow it out of the water!
I have been trying to understand weather models on my app for a while and did some research but I could not find much online, without actually diving into very complex technical papers.
Thank you so much for explaining it so clearly and for doing the heavy lifting for us!
Please let us know how we can help promote your channel.
Thank you! With regards to promoting the channel, well, watching our videos is the best thing you can do. Also liking and commenting promotes the channel further as it heats up the algorythm
Speechless , what an amount of research and work on this video , thank you for sharing it ❤️🙏🏼
Thanks, glad you like it!
Brilliant! Love your quantitative / analytical approach. That’s what caught and held my attention since I first discovered your channel.
Thanks Jeff :) glad you enjoyed the video!
Very interesting and useful, the dork engineer in me was doing a lot of processing so I was happy with your common sense suggestion to look at the whole map and not specific points. Thanks!
Considering the geek factor here, am I the only one who chuckled when you said one minute average for insurance customers ? Because... Gust happens! And construction / roofs, etc are likely rated to withstand a certain wind speed. Great graphics. Considering the information density and speed of delivery, this is the first of your videos where I was thinking "teleprompter?" And along the way I've started wondering about the technical level of your day job. Yes, I enjoyed the blast of information.
Thanks! Yes, this was our first video with a teleprompter - well, a make-shift one. We hope to make more videos like this in the future
Great content! Smaller intervals are useful for interpreting variance. If I can look at a chart with small intervals, I can see those gusts and lulls that are important factors for our sport. You can also infer the average. Site observations (handheld wind meter on the beach) can be a useful tool to compare to a model if you have a large enough sample size to find a trend (observed winds at my spot are usually about 5 knots less than X model). You guys seriously have some of the best content on UA-cam! Thanks for sharing!
Thanks Aaron. We do agree that smaller intervals can be super useful! We are pretty happy with our weather station which outputs 1 minute averages and then automatically calculates larger averages.
I just stumbled upon your channel and this is a fantastic video. Great info that I wasn’t aware about. Thank you so much!
Thank you! Glad you enjoyed the video
This is exactly the kind of well-rounded content I search for in Kiteboarding videos I also loved your weather flow review video.
That's awesome, thanks :)
Great Video, it makes so much more sense no why the forecast can be so far off some times in some locations but spot on in others! I like the video style very well done I also do UA-cam videos and i know how much time and work they can be so all the extra work is appreciated!
Thanks! We’re having fun trying new styles and looking into different topics.
It’s a lot of work but we enjoy it :) glad to hear you liked the video!
Wow you guys really put a lot on effort on making this video!! very valuable!!!!
Thanks, we hope it's useful info :)
This is fantastic information. Many thanks.
Brilliant, better quality information than the Weather Channel videos!
Amazing video, very clear explanation, I've learned a bunch, thank you!
Great to hear, thanks :)
great video, thanks.
Didn't know a lot of your teachings.
Now I know why I dont know how the wind is going to be.
Please more of that "in depth" stuff.
Thanks! We plan on it :)
Outstanding work! Thank you. You confirmed a couple of my suspicions and taught me more.
What were your suspicions? We are curious now
Wow. Things always aren't what they seem to be. Really getting into the weeds on wind speed. I like this type of video.
Please do a video on how they calculate Earth's warming.
Right?! It was quite the rabbit hole to go down. Glad you enjoyed the video!
Excellent work! Impressive research skills! :D
Thanks Kevin :)
So informative! Had no idea that ground wind speed is extrapolated from the surface type, nor that they calculate wind gusts that way
Hey guys amazing video
Keep up the grind
Thanks, will do :)
Thank you for this accurate and very useful information.
This was an amazing video. I learnt more than I ever wanted. Wow!!! U guys rock
Thanks! Happy you found it informative :)
Nicely Explained
Well done. Kudos on this. And don't stop ;-))
Thanks for a great video for all of us wind geeks. More of this type please! Digging a bit deeper into your discussion of measuring current wind speeds, I wonder what the sampling rates are for those one through 10 minute averages. Are they sampling every second, five seconds, 30 seconds...…? Higher sampling rates (like frames/second in a video) are always better, but they involve more data.
It really depends on the weather agency, as everyone does it differently. For example in Canada they calculate a 2 min average from five 24 second averages. I believe the minimum is 3 second and maximum is 60 seconds. It also depends on which anemometer is being used as ultra sonic ones are much more accurate than traditional cup anemometers.
thanks a lot for the instruction Teacher !!! Excellent Channel !!!
This is great. I’m sure it doesn’t cover everything on this topic, but it’s far more info than I’ve ever seen on how these numbers are derived before. Great info and good starting point for more independent learning!
Thanks! 😀
Not a "Dorky" video. You may have a special niche among all different kiting channels -- science meets kites. Excellent work! Thank you.
A niche within a niche ;)
What a brilliant video, what a detailed research! Thank you very much. His is awesome! 👏🏻
Glad you enjoyed it 😀
This was awesome! Have been wondering about how the forecast models work. Lately here in Finland the forecast have been really off for almost a month now. Dunno why 🤔
Thank you, I learnt a lot from this 👍🏻
I have been into wind sports for 30 years and always wondered how reports and forecasts can be so wrong. Thanks for doing the leg work on this. Very interesting and informative. 🤯💡✅👍
Thanks!
excellent video well explained - keep up the great work.
Thank you
Our Kite Life after listening to your explanation every time I hear a number on the TV/Radio especially with the talk of storm Caira I keep asking average or instantaneous or something else.
Thanks for making my life so annoying another thing to be pedantic over 😁
Brilliant
The amount of information you gathered is impressive, good job. No one told this before.
Thanks! Happy to hear you found it informative
Brillant vid! :)
I can suggest one bit of answer: instantaneous measures for predictions don't mean the same thing as for observations at all. Since predictions don't directly model gusts/turbulences, the wind is perfectly stable and it doesn't matter if you take instantaneous measures, 1-minute or 10-minute averages. They would all be the same, because the model doesn't even try to look at phenomena that create variations on the scale of a second.
And even if it did, it wouldn't really be useful, because if the forecast tell you a cold front will hit your favorite landmark at 10:23am tomorrow, chances are it's half an hour off anyway
thanks for reply Tim, honestly after making this video we are more confused than before. Even with your answer...:) Over past year we learned ourselves that gusts/turbulences are of high if not equal importance as the wind speed itself. Hopefully one day we get to understand the whole picture. So far its just bits and pieces from various sources.
@@OurKiteLife Thanks for the reply! Gusts are important for kiteboarding/sailing and other activities, yes. But for general weather models, not so much. You could ignore them entirely and be fine, if it wasn't for all the forecast users who care about gusts.
In the model-world, you first predict what the average wind speed and direction is going to be like around some given time, and only then try to predict how variable/gusty it's going to be around that average by considering the local landscape (trees etc). The confusing thing here is: it's possible to predict what the average wind (e.g. over 10 minutes) is going to be without predicting what the individual measures (let's say every second over 10 minutes) are going to be like.
Excellent video guys! A lot of good information regarding wind speeds and forecasting which will help Kiters plan their kiting day. On a future video you should explain the effects of relative air and water temperatures on wind speed. As always - Great Job! 👍👍
Thanks for the video topic suggestion Ted :)
For a minute I thought I was watching weather television station.:) great explanation.
Haha, thanks Denys!
i think its more weather television in advanced mode :-)
If global news sees this we may loose great UA-cam vloger. She will be offered management job.
great explanation ! i loved it :D
glad you liked it :D
Nice Vid guys - wow i never even knew this was an issue.... Love your channel!
and you're a sailor? :P
@@OurKiteLife lol i know right! But who woulda thunk different wind sensors show different readings, its like different cars calculate speed differently ... one thing i do know though ... is how to launch an LEI off a cat ;)
This should be included as a course at Kitesurf University. I was actually making notes hahaha AMAZING Video and keep them coming.
Haha thank you, glad you found it helpful! 😊
Really interesting ! You've done a great research work. Have you seen that Windguru have recently made a mixed model from GFS, WRF and other model ? Moreover they let you chose how much weight you want to put on which model. This is pretty interesting since this is what we usually do while checking the forecast. However there is not much information on how they compute the model forecast. There are a lot of scientific paper on each model and there is still a lot of question around wind forceasting.
Thank you ! You've done a really good video as usual !
Personally at our spot GFS and WRF are the least accurate forecast models. It all depends where you live. Also we personally stay away from mixed models as who knows what kind of franken numbers they have in them. Wind is local, find model that is most accurate for you and stick to it ;)
@@OurKiteLife
I would add that it not only depends on which spot I look at but also which kind of wind is forecasted. At my homespot in France, WRF is more accurate on NW wind whereas GFS is better for W wind. I think it is linked to ground effect that most model do not take into account.
Excellent video.
Thanks
Great video!
Thanks!
Great work!! Thank you!!!
Thanks, glad you enjoyed the video!
@@OurKiteLife I enjoy them all. As someone in the film industry, and crazy about kitesurf, I really appreciate the amount of work and passion you put into each one of the videos. Well done!!!
Superb!
Thanks!
Great video and most seriuos analysis of winds data ever seen ! Thanks ! Also why you not included Winguru ? in EU a lot of people using it. Keep going. Best regards from Lithuania !
That was a mistake as we actually emailed them too and we even had their logo to include but forgot too insert it during editing. We did reference them in description though.
Well done! To further your study on wind, on a slightly different path, you might want to check out Dennis Pagen's books on paragliding. Understanding the sky is the goto book. You'll a tiny bit of info in the Art of Paragliding p. 248. I especially like p. 264. I found it online for free but Understanding the sky was not cheap. I love researching also. Thanks for sharing your work!
That's a lot of research you've done. Do you guys really do all this work yourselves? Impressive.
yup
Great vid. 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
Thanks Serge!
Awesome 🙌🏽
Thank you very detailed and good to know the science behind what is more of an art (forecasting) 😬
No problem - glad you liked it!
Our Kite Life I have a question: given the vertical wind gradient and that average winds are calculated at a height of 10m, should people who use handheld wind meters add a few knots to the readings they read at head height? Similarly should people who are used to using wind meters to gauge the wind, subtract a few knots from the readings on their forecasting apps? Maybe wind meters already calculate speed based on your elevation and wind gradients ? I never use wind meters so I’m never really readings with forecasts. Thanks!
Unbelievable professional level video.
Are you guys work for national geographic now ?
Thanks! Haha, not yet ;)
Thank You ! " I do care" :-) ! Very interesting !
Thanks - glad you liked it!
Of course, the averaging interval can make a difference for the kind of wind sport in which one is engaged. For a sailor, a 10-minute average may be sufficient. If the 10-minute average is 12 knots it could include a two-minute lull of 8 knots and a two-minute gust of 16 knots. A sailor could ride this out, no problem. But for a kiter, this change in wind speed could be catastrophic. OK, "catastrophic" may sound dramatic, but that 8 knot range (8 to 16) could be the difference between your kite dropping from the sky and being overpowered. Hmmm... will keep this in mind for my next session... Enjoyed your tutorial even more the 2nd time I watched it.
from doing research for this video we also found that a degree of turbulence (wind gusting from 8 knots to 16) is equally as important factor as the wind speed itself. So yes, it can be "catastrophic" if the wind is so gusty that it goes form 8 to 16 in a matter of seconds. More on that in future video :)
Nice Information always used to think how they get things Wrong??.. here in Britain with their Forecasts especially Wind Stats and now i knows.. i use XC Weather,Metoffice,Windguru
Super interesting
Thanks - we thought so too!
But how long is a "gust". There's a time duration for gusts and lulls too.
I like the idea of providing a 80% speed range over a 15 minute duration.
BTW: Great video! Those are interesting points you brought up.
Great vid! Also interesting fact that wind "strength" depends on air temperature, pressure and humidity. So 15 knots at warm sunny day can be different from 15 knots at cold and humid day. Maybe you can dig into that rabbit hole too? :)
thanks for the comment Vitaliy, and yes that is next on our list to look at all factors that influence wind =]
And you would have experience - going from BVI to Toronto snowboarding!
Yeah, I experienced the difference of 15kn in warm conditions and cold conditions when coming back from my Kitetrip in Thailand and went kiting some weeks later at 10 C temperature in Germany.
The wind felt much stronger and gust hit much harder.
It’s three factors that make the difference, temperature - air pressure - Humidity, all together its density.
Amazingly informative video, thanks so much! I always wonder why weather sites show models predictions for several days in advance when the reliability of these predictions seems to decrease dramatically with time (at least where I live, where the likelihood of the model being correct in two days time or more often seems to be near zero). It would be nice if wind model predictions included a "time reliability index" or something.
what models do you use? It all depends on resolution. Also if you live next to big body of water, forecasts would be more accurate than not
@@OurKiteLife I live/kite in the Eastern Townships and south of Montréal, which appears to be a very difficult area for weather predictions (mix of lakes and mountains, competing weather systems). The wind forecast often changes dramatically at the last minute, apparently because the lakes west of Montreal have a difficult-to-predict effect on the main weather systems coming from the west and weather systems coming from the US to the south may come further north than expected, sort of a perfect storm of weather chaos it seems at times. I typically use the NAM 12km or NAM 3km models, any other suggestions?
@@paulcharette5215 yeah from our research it looks like mountains make weather predictions, especially wind, very complicated. You need something more with high resolution, maybe predict wind pwe and pwg, but it is paid models. We use nam3, also try hrdps 3km, it's Canadian high resolution model. It is available for free at spotwx.com
@@OurKiteLife Thanks! I'll give spotwx.com a try. What has been your experience with pwe & pwg?
What a great video! what software and method do you use to superimpose your holy image!?
Green screen and Magix Vegas
Interesting video! I think that for forecasts, the average over 1 minute is usually the same as the average over 2, 5 or 10 minutes: after all, forecasts are much flatter than measurements.
I wonder however about the prediction of the "gust". Is that the maximum instantaneous speed, or the max average over 1 minute? (or even 2, 5 or 10 minutes...)
Very nice 🤙 this explains a lot 😄 OK, so looking at the map makes more sense. What about the wind direction, temperature and pressure? I know you did another video on this topic, but how should one bring all those information together? It's really complex... I think many of you can relate to something like this: "Forecast 15kts - today it's going to be a light wind day on my 12m" -> reality at the spot 25kts average... 😂
it gets even more complex with our last video. Basically, so far the best suggestion we can make is to get a wind meter at your kite beach at all costs. After we installed a wind meters at our beaches our kiting sessions tripled if not more
great! thanx!
Thank you!
you are the best
Thanks
My greatest tip to new kitesurfers is when they have had a great session . To then screenshot there local live weather to give them an idea for there next session (perfect kite size) 😃👍.
That's great advice! Thanks for sharing :)
Kiteboarding science👍. Which is the best application to install in your cellphone?
ikitesurf app
Sorry to comment so late after your post but just seeing it now. I work for IBM here in Canada and met some colleagues who came into IBM through the purchase of the Weather Network. I was fascinated to learn that IBM sells more detailed weather forecasts for industries such as the airline industry. Apparently, there are even different tiers of prediction services they provide. Did you come across the new weather prediction system called IBM GRAF that was just launched? I actually don't know how accurate it is or whether it's directly accessible to end users. By the way do you have a technical background, your detailed analysis sounds like one from an engineer or scientist :)
From our research we came across third party weather forecasts from big multinationals and they are more accurate as they combine multiple forecast models and do some post processing. However they still look at a big picture, that is when they look how accurate they are they look at average wind speed or temperature for a day. Trying to predict specific number for an hour or even an instant is still a long shot. No technical background in engineering, just a university degree
@@OurKiteLife interesting thanks for letting me know :)
My head hurts! Great vlog though
Thanks, happy to hear you enjoyed it
Very cool - nice vid. Much better - and more intelligent - than endless dudes twirling around in the air.
Thanks! Glad you liked it
I think you guys are absolute kooks when it comes to kiting. But this video was actually useful thanks. Do another video explaining wind seasons (everywhere in world) why theres a on season and off season etc i know why but its something i have to explain alot to kooky kiters
Excellent explanation of the wind models and reading and predicting frequencies and accuracies.
One confusing bit to me was that the first 23 seconds makes it sound like you are trying to figure out why two physical sensors at the same location at the same time give different data readings. Then what you explained was that the models (software based I’m guessing) calculates and gives different readings based on different time intervals. So I’m guessing that you meant to say that the physical sensors should (and do) have the same data reading but the software used to compute the displayed reading is what causes the discrepancy.
Wow, I learned something today. I had just assumed that the evil forecaster over forecasted the wind when they knew I was going to kite. ;-)
Haha it seems that way sometimes 😄
🙏👍🏼👍🏼
😊
Why all systems aren’t instantaneous ?
you don't really want them instantaneous as they are less reliable
they're all instantaneous internally. but if you go low enough the particularities of the sensor start to matter. For instance a heavier sensor will react to gusts more slowly than a lighter sensor; the sole inertia acts as a buffering/averaging effect.
So instantaneous values depend on the sensor. Whereas it's much easier to calibrate 1-min averages so that all sensors report the same thing. By giving you 1-min averages the sensor spares you the effort of having to figure out the calibration yourself
oy vey. this shed some light alright. this mess makes the spaghetti models look appetizing. kudos to you for hacking your way through this jungle so smoothly. I'll stick with your take-away: look at the forecast MAPS... and remember, ultimately, you're always gonna be on your own. : )
I think the maps are the way to go, but they are still imperfect as they are limited by the resolution. If you have access to predict wind they output 1 km resolution from GFS and ECMWF
The more dorky, the better!
:) now i know that i know nothing. I use a sheep for the wind. if it have no curls anymore, then wind is good . ;)
That’s how we felt when we started looking into it 😄
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