Yoshinobu Yamamoto's NPB Pitch Data
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- Опубліковано 4 чер 2024
- I got my hands on a sample of Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 2023 NPB pitch shape data. This allows us to peer into his mix, usage, and how I think it will translate to MLB.
When I made this video, I realized I was more lukewarm on Yamamoto's immediate success in MLB compared to what I perceived the majority of media believe. So I hope this serves as some bit of contrast to the majority of information out there on Yamamoto.
Metrics presented within come from an MLB organization. They differ slightly from the available public data from the 2023 WBC in which Yamamoto pitched (that sample was just over 100 pitches).
***One note that I didn't mention within the video: my expectation is that Yamamoto's fastball will lose both vertical and horizontal movement in MLB compared to the numbers shown here. Likely 1" vertical and 1-2" horizontal.
****As of 11/16, Yamamoto has not technically been posted, but the presumption is that he will be within the next week.
Video via Pacific League TV, UA-cam
Music via LoFi Girl beats on UA-cam - • Morning Coffee ☕️ [lof...
0:00 Intro
0:22 Pitch Mix
2:18 Pitchability
3:21 Four-Seam Issues?
5:59 How Good is His Splitter?
7:19 Slider and Sinker Tweaks
9:36 Projections - Спорт
You totally missed that he fills up the zone more than basically everyone, even at 2 strikes he's beating people in the strikezone because he knows he can. That's the main reason for his low swing and miss rates, it's not the stuff. And look at the percentage of groundballs he's generating? Im actually shocked by your conclusions, you missed a lot: That curve is A+ to A+ but he might have to stop throwing it for strikes 70% of the time. He varies the movement of his fastball, another thing you missed. With his approach angle and carry it'll play. The splitter...again you totally missed that he varies the break and switches between straight down and the armside break one you covered. Another thing is that NPB hitters are different, way more contact hitters there. Which is first of all a big reason he fills up the zone like he does, he's not scared of homeruns too much. And second, it's all the more impressive he's able to consistently beat those guys in the zone and preventing them to make good contact. Comparing his fastball to Senga doesn't work since Senga's command is always an issue and as you know, mlb hitters will hit 104mph if the location is off. Yamamoto on the other hand has great command and doesn't have to play the 50/50 guessing game that Senga does with his fork and fastball
Its a shame this guy doesn't get more views.
yea but we get him all to ourselves lol and he can answer questions
Just give it time and meanwhile stfu and enjoy that he is all to us right now, its gonna suck competing with casuals once he gets big
"He comps more to Tanaka" do people forget Tanaka had an ERA in the low 2s pitching in Yankee stadium as a SP before his UCL tear that was never completely treated with TJ?
NPB is a more contact oriented league, like you said that may or may not impact the whiff% on the 4S FB. However, I'm *pretty sure* most Japanese SPs consistently see a rise in their K/9 when they come stateside.
yes, it's the case for almost every big name starter: darvish, tanaka, ohtani, senga, maeda, iwakuma, kuroda, even bauer, I don't think this projection is accurate.
Great watch as always Lance
Awesome work as usual Lance!
Thank you for the breakdown great stuff!
Nicely done Lance. You're the best.
I’d been waiting for this one
Can you make a video on Shota Imanaga's NPB pitch data also? it seems like Imanaga has more swing and miss than Yamamoto but higher home run rates so I'm curious what you think.
Thinking about it! He's interesting as well
The Tanaka comp has always been my thought on the matter
I think his sinker will be better as the MLB ball seems to allow more movement with than pitch that the NPB ball
Just curious, have you talked about Yamamoto’s curveball?
Keep it up
interesting analysis and do appreciate a pretty unique look at it the actual metrics, but a little surprised that it sounds like you're almost trying to be a contrarian here for the sake of it? I'm hearing a lot of the same things here as on your senga analysis from last year which were pretty clear underestimations
1.
I see how you could think that, and perhaps there's some of that in here. The tone of this video is likely because of the conversations I've had with a few in MLB front offices that all seemed to be more lukewarm that I have seen in the media. So I got his data and tried to figure out why they were hesitating. Doesn't make sense for me to make a video where it's just saying what everybody else is saying.
The reality is with any projection, it's a range of outcomes. If I feel like an outcome is underrepresented relative to the industry, I'm fine with being the figure of that outcome. In this case, it's that I think Yamamoto is a good pitcher! Really good actually, I just think the contract is high because of his age and I think that he won't be a frontline guy early in his career.
Senga it seems like the whole industry missed on, otherwise the best offer he got wouldn't have been $14m AAV, even at 30yo. You can loop me in with that, I'm fine with it. His 4S still isn't good, I think I got that right actually. I just underestimated how great the split would be and how he'd figure out the LHH mix with a gyro ball SL after playing with a sweeoer.
@@LanceBroz thanks for the reply! didn't realize that some of this feeling was also coming out of the front offices, that's really interesting to know. I also thought one of my personal bigger concerns with yamamato is just the workload that he's shouldered with nearly 200 innings and 2 of the last 3 years and also stuff like his 138 pitch outing. really appreciate your content and engagement!
Do you think his lower than average release point will shy away MLB orgs from having him throw a sinker more? I think his 4-seam plays up in the zone really well because of the combo of his velocity and lower vertical break. With a sinker, I would assume the plane of the pitch would be flatter average (due to the low release point) and would be more susceptible to getting barreled. Curious to hear your thoughts, great video!
Hmm, generally with a lower than average release you’re actually going to have a better chance at creating a sinker shape with a reasonable amount of drop. Think about how most over the top guys generally have good backspun 4S.
But that’s not considering arm angle, which has more of a bearing on shapes that fit than release (release is a bit susceptible to the height of the pitcher).
I don’t have Yamamoto’s arm angle, but my guess is that he’d be able to create some kind of sinker with a bit more drop than where he is and perhaps accentuate the amount of arm-side movement he’s getting.
So perhaps more of a traditional two-seamer than a sinker? I usually blend both terms together, which might be a mistake.
Maybe an MLB org believes he doesn’t need it and the 4S is enough! Curious to see
3.5 to 4 era? Jesus dude. I'm looking forward to see how this ages
I'm a simple guy. Lance uploads. I give it a like
😂
What do you think of eno sarris report on him? he seemed much more impressed by his current repertoire
Yeah! Eno is the man. Even since publishing this video, I’ve come around on a few elements of his game (particularly how good the command is).
I still think there’s a chance he’s a little slow out of the gate, but Senga adjusted quickly, and if Yamamoto does, I’ll be very wrong with my takes from this video. 👍
Could his disapointing swing and miss rate on his 4SFB be because of the hitting atmosphere in NPB being more contact focused?
I mention that in the video! But we still see 4S swing-miss decrease when NPB pitchers come to the states. So I would expect Yamamoto’s to fall between 15-18% or something below the 22% MLB average.
@@LanceBrozoh my bad, thanks for still answering tho!
Can we access drivelines stuffplus model+
You have to have a Traq subscription, and you would get access. It’s a pretty simple one though, it’s just looking at movement and velo essentially. Unsure if there’s another public one out there though
I think his cutter can also be something he mixes in more
Yes. MLB analyst is saying his cutter is comparable to Corbin Burnes. That's a big praise.
You explained it a little bit in the video, but why do you think someone like Yamamoto will struggle a bit in MLB after tearing up NBP? Any thoughts on if it has more to do with the type of pitcher that he is, or if it really is very difficult to adjust to MLB's play style vs NPB.
His motor, movements and mechanics are easier to time and adjust also why his fb is below the ave. Probably same reason for Senga, compare to Christian Javier’s fb and one can see, relax soft and smooth, illusions and fb with carry and location-battle-plays is better than ext., release height, max thrusting maybe why a lot of pitchers don’t last or be effective in battle mode.
It’s a combination of both I think. He’s a pitch-ability guy with a fastball that isn’t really going to miss bats at an above average rate, about to go face the best hitters in the world. I think he’s very good! I just think the $200m price tag is tied more to his age than anything. Whichever team gets him is betting they can make him better in the life of the contract. Out of the gate especially, I think the range of outcomes is wide.
This video also has a lot to do with simply providing another perspective. I have heard very little negative about him. And in talking to some team representatives, sensed people were more hesitant on how dominant he would be out of the gate than I had been reading.
Have to think about things probabilistically. Nobody is 100% at predicting this stuff.
He looks to have great stuff and superb numbers in Japan, but small, hard-throwing pitchers simply break down early. MLB doesn't learn from the lessons of most of the previous small, hard-throwing pitchers. Shoulder and elbow problems are a fact of life even for big guys, but far more so for throwers with less mass to support them. He'll likely have issues before he's 30.
The kbo in general strikes out less, which is why that Swing and miss number isnt that high. Senga had much lower 4sm stuff + numbers than Yamamoto so I'd expect his number to increase that much more. Also when in the factor he locates way better than Senga, I think he's an instant ace and with the upside of being the best pitcher in mlb next year.
Kbo??? These guys are from npb
@@ciello___8307 dumb mistake. Meant Nbp 🤦🏾♂️
he is 5' 8". I personally am not sold.
Totally agree. He's also listed as 178 pounds. Even big pitchers eventually have shoulder and elbow problems, but smaller guys are far more brittle. He'll be a problem by 30, like pretty much every single slight hard thrower.
he's 5'10
@@111Farrar he's 5'10 and extremely flexible, stroman is 3 inches shorter and had never had a major arm injury, while many 6'4 pitchers have had multiple tjs, size doesn't prevent injuries.