The Great Turning Point for the U.S. Economy Has Arrived (Howard Marks Explains)
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- Опубліковано 17 чер 2024
- Howard Marks is back in the news giving his updated thoughts on the U.S. economy, the Government debt crisis, and the Sea Change that's taking place right now. Can the U.S. fix it's economic woes before it's too late?
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★ ★ CONTENTS ★ ★
0:00 Howard Marks' Sea Change is Here
1:00 Why the Economy is Suffering Now
2:20 Interest Rates Aren't High Now.
3:50 Inflation is Not Under Control
4:40 Marks Explains the Government's Predicament
8:37 Governments Can't Keep us Aloft.
10:20 The Debt Problem
11:30 What is Howard Marks Investing In Now?
My Podcast: / theyounginvestorspodcast
Brandon van der Kolk is authorised to provide general financial product advice in Australia and is an Authorised Representative (Number 1305795) of Guideway Financial Services Pty Ltd, AFSL Number 420367. Any advice is general & does not consider your financial situation, needs or objectives so consider whether it's appropriate for you. Read Brandon's Financial Services Guide available from guideway.com.au/NewMoney.pdf. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future investment returns.
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Also, poor Howard - it looks like he stepped straight out of the ring into that Bloomberg interview 😂
@NewMoneyUA-cam Brandon, He underwent Cancer treatment.
He is also tasked with delivering an unpleasant message which nobody wants to hear.
Sei mal nicht so frech Jüngling 😎
Uh, excuse me, but the “debt” is over $34 trillion and rising $1 trillion every 90 days, and even these ridiculous numbers will have to be revised upwards shortly. It is abundantly clear that the US government will not and is incapable of paying its debt. However, this “debt” is illusory, its fake, unlawful and erroneous debt ( central banking scheme debt) that could be erased once and for all, along with the central banks themselves. Then we start an honest and fair monetary system backed with silver and gold and full reserves. Problem solved.
(SMHF) Having to resort to "Click bait" titles now? This is very, very, old news in the business cycle. (unsubscribed).
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
Numerous opportunities exist to achieve substantial profits at present, but executing high-volume and nearly flawless trades requires the expertise of real-time professionals with an ISDA Agreement. This agreement allows investors to participate in sophisticated trades, exclusive to seasoned individuals, and unavailable to amateurs. Attempting to be a high-stakes trader without an ISDA is akin to trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation.
Amber Dawn Brummit is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
I agree that many people are considering NVDA as the "Stock of the year." However, I'm curious about which stocks could potentially become the next Nvidia in terms of growth over the next decade. I've allocated $200k for investment, aiming to retire comfortably.
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to Nvidia, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
Facing a similar situation, I sought advice from an CFP. Through portfolio restructuring and diversification with good ETFs, S&P 500 and growth stocks, I've turned my portfolio around from $200k to over $800k in a few years.
Your CFP must be really good, I hope it's okay to inquire if you're still collaborating with the same CFP and how I can get in touch with them?
She goes by ‘’Vivian Jean Wilhelm’ I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Thank you! I entered her full name into my browser, and her website came out on top. I filled her form and i hope she gets back to me soon.
The normal state of the U.S. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.
People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyperinflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.
Inflation is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire.
@@mikegarvey17I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value. I would be happy if you could advise me based on how you went about yours, as I am ready to go the passive income path.!!
My CFA ’Gertrude Margaret Quinto’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.
As an investing enthusiast, I often wonder how top level investors are able to become millionaires off investing. . I’ve been sitting on over $545K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here, is it a good time to buy into stocks or do I wait for another opportunity?.
Just because there are opportunities in the market doesn’t mean you should go in blindly. To understand the potential factors that contribute to your financial growth, I'll advise you to seek the help of a professional.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
That does make a lot of sense, unlike us, you seem to have the Market figured out. Who is this coach?
NYCOLE CHRISTINA VANNATA a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective most importantly consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Viviana Marisa Coelho is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. By looking her up online, you can quickly verify her level of experience. She is well knowledgeable about financial markets.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Howard explained my fears in this video, and this is probably going to have a full effect on the stock and market .Infact the yield on bonds have decreased especially on the long end (30 and 10 Y) indicating that the demand is still there even if the supply remains huge showing a preference for safety. I'm still at a crossroad regarding whether or not to liquidate my $138k
I agree with you. I started out with investing on my own, but I lost a lot of money. I was able to pull out about $200k after the 2020 crash. I invested the money using an analyst, and in seven months, I raked in almost $673,000
Please will you be kind enough to share the details of the man that helped you?
Actually its a Lady. Yes my go to person is a 'Michele Katherine Singh'. So easy and compassionate Lady. You should take a look at her work.
Thank You for the Info.
The U.S. economy can actually get better if only the govt can start making better decisions for the sake of it's citizens, cos' they've really made life more difficult for its residents. Hyperinflation has left the less haves bearing the brunt of the burden. Its already eating into my entire $620k retirement portfolio. Like where else can we invest our money with less risks?
Just get a financial planner straight up! personally, I would invest in etf and also love investing in individual stocks. yes it’s riskier but I'm comfortable in my financial environment.
Who is your advsor please? if you don't mind me asking
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
People try to predict the economy not realizing it is not a capitalistic market, its a command economy, central planning! my concern is, instead of having much dollar in bank that could lose value to inflation, do I save in gold to reserve and grow wealth for now, or just hang on?
truth is that gold serves as an inflation hedge in the long run, but not profitable in the short run. only thing you can predict is a strong effort of wealth transfer from the people to the powerful. luckily some folks find solution in financial advisors
I wholeheartedly concur; I'm 60 years old, just retired, and have about $1,250,000 in non-retirement assets. Compared to the whole value of my portfolio during the last three years, I have no debt and a very little amount of money in retirement accounts. To be completely honest, the information provided by invt-advisors can only be ignored but not neglected. Simply undertake research to choose a trustworthy one.
Impressive can you share more info?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Colleen Rose Mccaffery” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Opinions on the market diverge; some claim overvaluation due to rapid gains, while others cite strong economic fundamentals justifying high valuations. Raises concern for my $600K equities going 8% up and 20% down. Should i hold on or sell off my positions and hold cash?.
In fact, markets have incorrectly priced in such a pivot six times over the last two years, according to Deutsche Bank, which sounded cautious about this seventh time. Still showing us why pointers from market experts are essential.
True, A lot of folks downplay the role of professionals until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple of summers back after my lengthy financial setback, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of due diligence who helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation to over half a million dollars.
talking about coaching, do u consider anyone worthy for recommendations? I have about 80k to taste the waters now that large cap stocks are at a discount... thanks
I've shuffled through investment coaches and yes, they can be positively impactful to an individual's portfolio, but do your due diligence to find a coach with grit, one that withstood the 08' crash. For me, Carol Vivian Constable turned out to be better and smarter than all the advisors I ever worked with till date, I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.
I just checked her out on google and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
A flailing U.S. economy and elevated global tensions reduce the likelihood of prolonged inflation or higher long-term Treasury yields. I want to invest more than $100k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk
Well the bigger the risk, the bigger the reward and such impeccable decisions are better guided by professionals
Opting for an inves-tment advisr is currently the optimal approach for navigating the stock market I've been consulting with a coach for a while, and my portfolio has surged by 85% since 2022
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
@Theresaa12 we can see how professionals handled covid. 😂
Since the commencement of Biden's presidency, the United States appears to have witnessed more adverse outcomes. These include impacts on the markets, such as declines in prices, significant inflation spikes, and instances of bank failures. I am contemplating whether the sudden surge in interest rates will be advantageous for value investors or if it might be more prudent to temporarily avoid involvement in the stock and financial markets.
@RobertDennison411 .How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
Agreed that many people are considering NVDA as the "Stock of the year." However, I'm curious about which stocks could potentially become the next META in terms of growth over the next decade. I've allocated $200k for investment, looking for companies to make additions to boost performance
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
Elisse Laparche Ewing is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an emaiil. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Gold
The United States as we know it is no more. All signs point to 2024 being a year of significant economic hardship for the entire nation. Put your cash to use straight away to increase its value. I was aware that I needed to invest. I had no idea how quickly a few thousand dollars a month would go up. Though it is. Since 2020, I've made about $600,000.
Congrats. Your ability to control the whole risk profile of your investments and prevent irreversible capital loss will be your actual financial unlock. A plan must be in place to take advantage of opportunities to profit when they arise.
When you first start off, you should get advise from a fiduciary counsellor if you don't want to crash and burn. They adopt a profit-driven approach based on individual risk tolerance because their entire skill set is built on simultaneously trading long and short.
Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five aiyears now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.
the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from a market analyst, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
Laila artine kassardjian' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Given the uncertain economic conditions and heightened global tensions, I'm considering investing over $100k in stocks. However, I'm uncertain about how to minimize potential risks.
Consider hiring financial advisors, estate planners or tax experts. They can provide specialized knowledge and help you navigate complex financial decisions.
Exactly, a good number of people discredit the effectiveness of financial advisors/experts, but over the past 6years, I’ve had one consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/expenses and I’ve made over $3million in gains… might not be a lot but my portfolio can stand the test of time
Opting for an inves-tment advisr is currently the optimal approach for navigating the stock market, particularly for those nearing retirement. I've been consulting with a coach for a while, and my portfolio has surged by 85% since 2023
I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advis0r? I'll be happy to use some help.
*Jennifer Leigh Hickman* You can easily look her up, she has years of financiaI market experience.
Mainstream media will be replaced by channels like these that show news and interviews without trying to push an agenda. Great work.
This is a strange thing to say. Won't they just exist side by side. He played clips from "Mainstream Media" as part of the explanation.
Please note..
These situations and ideas are almost 12 months old.
By clickbait channels without any useful information?
Since this channel simply repeats the same misunderstandings that the MSM repeats, it wouldn't make any difference.
7:00
1. The Fed doesn't print the money, the Treasury does.
2. As Allen Greenspan reminded us, there is nothing stopping the government from printing as much money as it wants to pay off the debt.
3. Paying off the debt to the Fed would only be inflationary if the money were used to buy more goods in the market place. In other words it is the debt being created that was inflationary, and that has already happened. Paying off the debt would not be more inflationary.
4. All this "the government is broke, it's spending money it doesn't have" talk is nonsense (see point 2).
Higher prices bigger coffers
Thank you for introducing me to Howard Marks. Wealth of knowledge.
Marks is very generous with his excellent knowledge
Rates aren’t high, Asset valuations and prices are extremely high. Because while interest rates reset to the mean, prices didn’t. So everyone is hurting bad.
Exactly. And I am so tired of hearing all forms of mainstream news tell us how well the economy and the U.S. citizens are doing.
Precisely
Excluding corporate real estate
Perfectly put.
@@mandoboyo which could be canary in coal mine if they ever mark to market. Which they won’t unless pressured by basically military force.
Our Government has already defaulted, 1934 made gold illegal, 1965 took silver out of coins 1971 went off the gold standard
When looking at government debt it’s leveraged about 45 to 1. If an individual had that ratio it means that for every $1000 in income they have $45,000 in debt. Not hard to see how this ends.
@@ace9840more debt 😅😅😢
@@ace9840oof!
@@ace9840 except that individual would have a money printer
Not hard to see how this ends.
Inflation here we come
There were four US government defaults three gold, one silver, but you've only got one of the four in your comment.
Making gold illegal and changing the composition of coinage aren't defaults.
Your explanations are to the point and pretty much always make sense to me. Thank you.
Subscribed! Happy I found you. Great reporting!
Why aren't you talking about investing in Eledator when even real experienced traders are doing it?
They investing in PBA Holdings Bhd
After so much struggles I now own
a new house and my family is happy once again everything is finally falling into place!!
I'm 37 and have been looking for
ways to be successful, please
how??
In times like this you need a good
expert like Rita Orlando to help you get through.
😱Sounds familiar, I have heard
her name on several occasions..
and both her success stories in
the wall Street journal!
Low rates are acceptable for big loans.
The rates of the 80's were for houses that cost 10% of today's homes.
no they were not 10% , more like 25% and wages have gone up 4 x since then so it a wash you are inventing numbers out of thin air
Superb analysis-thanks
I really enjoy your videos you have such a great way of explaining things so we can understand what’s going on in the economy. Thank you for giving us the information to make informed choices 😊
Howard Marks is my hero regarding investing, the markets, and overall his pragmatic review of the U.S. economy. I have read his memos for years. The thing is he's in Los Angeles and not New York, so the Wall Streeters dismiss him off-hand.
Valuable information. Probably the best discussion I have seen on this topic. Easy to understand. Thank you for sharing.
I feel you! It's easy to get carried away. Just set a budget and stick to it, right💸
My father retired in the mid 80's at 55 and I did the present value of his wage at retirement and he was a middle class guy and I would have to make $120K a year to be equal to him and I am no where near that with a college education so wages are not keeping up with productivity IMHO. The other thing that fries my apples when folks start talking about interest rates is they do not mention how the largest investment the average family makes is their house and over the last four to five years houses have become unaffordable for the average family. When I bought the house I am currently living in my mortgage was 8% and I could afford it because the cost of the house was much more affordable as a percentage of income even at 8% interest rate. The poor kids today are being hit with outrageous college debt and unaffordable housing with interest rates being the final straw. I had a chance to make it but the kids today are doomed and I feel so bad for them.
In Australia, we haven't really had a wage increase for almost a decade, we're only starting to get them now that inflation is so bad. But housing is a lost cause here at the moment, things have been panning out as I expected in the past 5 or so years. Idk where we're going to go from here, it only looks like pain, pain and more pain in the near future.
Vote Democrat. Must take care of the working class if one wants a first world nation.
Now compare dollar value to gold value of a home. You will see the avg home has not really increased in value. But in fact our dollars purchasing power has just been reduced
This isn't by accident. This is a result of specific policies that began during the Reagan Administration. The wealthy have become super-wealthy while the rest of us have lost ground or barely kept up. The top marginal tax rate has gone from 90% in the 1950s to 37% now. If the government is in debt, it's time we reimpose higher taxes on the super-wealthy to pay their fair share, or we might not even have our Social Security payments when we retire - which is our own money.
@@daniellborsonso the government debt is because the wealthy aren't taxed enough? If you were/are in deep debt is it because you don't have enough income or because you spent too much?
When you buy a bond at 5% you're gambling that inflation is going to be less than 5% yr/yr. And, sorry, I don't see how inflation is going to get any lower in the near future. So, no, I think bonds are a waste of money atm.
I don't think $1000 in bonds will do much difference either way. Invest in a small business like mowing lawns. With a bit of sweat and sunshine you can earn 100% on your investment and also have a lawnmower. Unless u have hundreds of thousands of dollars to invest this type of information is not very relevant as its advice for money managers, not individuals. Work more or work smarter or invest in yourself to increase your hourly wage or salary. Changing jobs is actually the best way to earn more money as unless you are working a pension your salary is probably less than current hiring rates. Play the lottery! Bet on sports games! Steal! Those are all way more fun ways to mess with ur extra cash.
Inflation is indicative of an expanding economy. I see the debt loads of Americans rising, their surplus COVID stimulus savings getting spent down. Demand is going to tank worse than it already has. Fiscal stimulus is not under consideration by the Republican Congress, and a stimulus that comes out under Trump in January 2025 will likely be concentrated towards the "makers" and be insufficient to ward off a proper crash. (Fixed by Fall 2025 by necessity of protecting Trump's popularity rating, which he will jealously protect. That is when you'd move out of bonds. Biden will get not help through 2027 if he wins, so bonds will do reasonably well until Summer 2027 if Biden is re-elected or the undetectable Democrap rigging is successful a second time, if you prefer to think of it that way. In any case, you will do okay in bonds for the next 8 months. 6 if the House switches to the Democrats, enabling stimulus spending and moving investors partially to equities again. On another note 3-4% inflation is not extraordinary any more than 5% interest rates. 2% was not atypical of the Obama economy, which no one looks upon as preferable. Once Powell hits his promise of 2% inflation, I'm hoping he sees fit to allow rates closer to 3. A 2% economy is sluggish and makes mortgages far too safe an investment which underfunds more productive vehicles that push our economy forward and improves the human condition. No society triumphs by buying and selling land between themselves.
I agree that is frustrating. The challenge with that comparison is you can't directly invest into inflation. If bonds give a 5% USD yield and inflation is 10%, although you may lose "real" value, you are still doing better than any asset class that drops in USD value or has a less than 5% yield. The assumption you are making is there must be asset classes that beat inflation, which isn't necessarily true. There are scenarios where everybody loses real value, and losing the least is the best one can hope for.
ps. you can invest in "inflation" indexed securities; however, this also is a degree of separation away from real inflation with an inherent conflict of interest, since they depend on metrics that those issuing the bonds often control.
Yes but wouldn't the new bonds then start praying more than 5%
Great information provided by both of you.. buying the board game now.. cheers mate!
very good articulate explanation
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Michelle Stewart.
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
She is my family's personal Broker and also a personal Broker to many families in the United states, she is a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in the United States.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
The first time we had tried, we invested $1000 and after a week we received $4,830. That really helped us a lot to pay our bills.
You trade with Michelle Stewart too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
Commenter after commenter keeps talking about how our rates are so high right now. And time and again I've been reminding people that our current rates are actually not high at all. I'd also been saying for many years that we kept the rates way too low for way too long and that it would come back to bite us eventually... and here we are.
People are hooked to 0% interest rates aka free money. Like junkies they are desperate for the next fix
Dead right. Maybe it's in this man's interest to make people think this way.
Seem to remember when interest rates rose in the old days borrowing declined, house prices declined. People saved. It’s not working like that anymore.
@@ericeandco Maybe if we rose interest rates above historic lows we could find out?
Rates are high relative to where they have been for the last 20 years. It matters. Everything is priced based on the lower rates. This is one reason why houses are so difficult to buy right now. The priced as if you're going to get a Subaru and a quarter interest rate when you buy it. The change in interest rates was extremely significant. So start pretending like it doesn't matter.
Thank you ❤
Succinct and on the money. I listen to macro podcasts daily, work in finance - your content is on point and easily digestible.
Government can't keep us aloft forever.
And worse still, we don't know where it headed either.
The only problem is the government doesn't create anything so it has to tax us to pay for the debt.
afloat. it's
@@teob3777 Given how overvalued the stock market is right now, perhaps he actually meant 'aloft'.
We definitely know where its headed. Its a mathematical certainty the us dollar is going to see hyperinflation
It is theoretically possible if it is solely for the US market. However, the global nature of today's economy introduces numerous unpredictable variables.
Great video. Very informative. Thank you.
Great video!
Been buying short term treasury bills for past 18 months but not corporate bonds as I feel there is far greater risk of short term default in most cases. The returns vs treasuries don’t seem worth the risk.
Not really buying bonds. But even fixed interest savings has gone up so been saving alot more money these days
Debt is a small word with great destructive power. Debt will always be the root of all economic recession or depression. The 25 plus tax cuts primarily for the wealthy have only added or created the problem iin the United States.
Cool video! Well informed!
Great points.
Thanks😊
Great content as usual
Some people and companies will learn the interest rate impact to their finances the hard way
Thank you
The thumbnail says it's here. But what's here was not explained in the video. Did I miss the important point
The point is that a YT video never explains its thumbnail.
The sea change he was talking about I think. Something has to change.
What's "here" is 63,000 viewers who fell for the click-bait.
The point was click bait. Unsubscribe and thumbs down. It's out of control.
@@gordongekko2781 *63,001
Yes. I have moved quite a bit of money into short term bonds. Long term bonds still look to risky to me.
Many people don't understand how bonds work , yes if you keep them to maturity but buying a 10/20 year bond and then the rates drop will causes you bond to increase a lot in value, so you sell them back to the market a a good profit
Yes, I have a lot of bonds and looking to get more. Im currently 40% in ZROZ. It's like TLT but slightly longer duration, so more capital appretiation if rates go down. I will likely raise it to 50% soon, and 100% after yield curve un-inversion.
I'm doing some short term investing (5-10 year house saving) and I've started allocating more and more into CDs because guaranteed 5% is too good. I'm at about a 50/50 split of index funds and CDs now.
EVERY SINGLE EMPIRE FROM THE ROMAN EMPIRE TO THE BRITISH EMPIRE HAVE ALL FALLEN..EVERY ONE HAS FALLEN...❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
If your business can’t pay 4-6% interest, it’s the wrong business. It won’t affect profitable companies, therefore i will stick to stocks.
It's not the business but the consumer not handling them up the road thus affecting businesses.
@@andrewmitchell7592 brokie customers
nice one i love when you cover howard, his book mastering the market cycle is an absolute must read!
Excellent analysis and research! ... God help us if we have to rely on the Government ... especially the present one!!
It’s not the interest rates… it’s the prices. Most people who invest don’t seem to get that. It’s a house payment of 2200 dollars a month when it used to be 1200 a month. It’s pricing that isn’t moving
Exactly, homes doubled and half in price, plus interest spike so double trouble!
How did we get through this video without discussing tax reform.
You can reduce inflation, fix wealth distribution and reduce debt all at the same time, with TAX
naw tax so unmurican!
We have a party that just wants the govt to crash, so taxing people at a rational rate is unlikely to happen
Higher tax lower efficiency of American companies, you’re just going to get out competed by China who has much lower taxes and therefore a lower burden on their companies.
@@andrewharris3900 China doesn't care if it's people are poor, competition lost.
@@andrewharris3900 nobody said anything about taxing the companies. Tax the CEOs and the corporate suits. Also it's a joke to suggest China will outcompete. This should have been done decades ago and China STILL has had zero ability to compete that entire time with little to suggest things are changing. It's just fear mongering and pearl clutching.
Thanks for your posting. Can you add the date of your posting please? Thank you.
Great educational video.
Good vid. Clearly market is gonna drop by 30% soon
The government currently lacks concrete strategies to address inflation. Inflationary pressures are impacting various sectors, including stocks, housing, and commodities, causing their prices to rise. It is not advisable to keep your money idle and wait for a market crash. Instead, it is prudent to put your money to work by starting with cautious investments and gradually increasing your pace as prices decline further. Withdrawing a significant amount of money, exceeding $500K, from my account at this time presents a challenging decision.
In my opinion there are certain investors who are still managing to generate substantial returns despite the unfavorable market conditions. Achieving similar results requires skill and expertise.
Personally I stopped listening and taking financial advise from these UA-camrs, because at the end of the day, I end up with a bunch of confusing stocks without knowing when to take profit, In reality, all I needed was professional advice.
Interesting, I’ve actually been looking into advisors lately, the news
I've been seeing in the market hasn't been so encouraging. who's the person guiding you?
Well ‘Wendy Birkett” is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary website to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
Honestly I appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Wendy Birkett up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.
30 years ago, I saw an interesting graph on when to invest in credit v. stock. When the interest rates are over 7 percent, go credit. When below, go stock.There was another side to the triangle that included when to invest in currency, but I cannot recall it. I think it was when the rates rose from stocks to bonds.
Yes, for the first time in a long time, we are adding bonds.
I don't think I understand. The Federal Reserve, 'prints' money to buy US bonds and then the tax payers are obligated to pay the debt interest on that transaction? Why wouldn't the US Government print its own money and control monetary policy directly without the debt portion being applied?
I was just skimming comments for amusement. You are the first person I've yet encountered to pose that question. It's something that economics students have asked for years. It's still debated. If you were to ask any of the 600 Ph.D. economists who work for the Federal Reserve, they would probably offer bemused smiles without definitive responses. A corollary is why do individuals really need to pay Federal taxes? Does MMT require it? Only 40% is needed to pay interest on Gov't. obligations. Does responsibility for the appropriate use of tax revenue impose discipline on Congress, specifically on the House where all revenue spending must arise? Doesn't seem so. One of the theoretical rationales for printing currency is that it sort of restricts the ability of the Treasury to monetize interest payments. Of course, payments are in key strokes not currency. Anyhow, good question!
'Printing money' is just a layman's term because explaining quantitative easing is more complicated to explain. The Federal Reserve doesn't actually print money.
This is why the Federal Reserve Act was passed on December 24, 1913. When normal people were celebrating Christmas Eve, the Devil was working.
Gov bonds are not needed in fiat system they are just a relic from the gold standard. They should be replaced with central bank accounts. Interest payment is voluntary for the gov and should be dropped to zero. Mmt is a correct description of the fiat system. Kelton's The deficit myth explains it in layman's language.
The separation is important. Think of politicians borrowing if they didn't have to impose interest on themselves. Hyper inflationary! It's already out of control now and they are paying interest. Additionally federal reserves have their own mandates usually to meet inflation and employment targets using interest rates and QE/QT.
As to your suggestion of 'buying bonds', how fruitful will that be as interest rates rise? Your bonds from 2024 yielding 5% will look sick compared to newer bonds of 2026 yielding 7% and so on. As interest rates rise, your bond prices will drop so you will take a loss there too.
So….. buy short term bonds?
Brandon, Thanks for this video. I’ve watched it through twice. I have been gradually moving out of equities since the first of the year at a pace limited only by the rate at which I can research other securities. Bond ETFs are a high fraction of my holdings now. I have a strong position in HYGH, whose price is remarkably stable in the face of interest rate fluctuation. I have large positions in GLD and PHYS. These are performing well. I have some CLO ETFs whose risk appears to be low. We shall see how well they do if an all out depression materializes. I’m researching (actually re-researching) some BDC and preferred stock ETFs. These worry me a bit, and I will probably not get in too deep. The phrase, “first lien senior secured” speaks to me. I also like AAA ratings. I’m turning away from the very highest rates of return. I’m experimenting with PFIX for hedging longer duration debt instruments with modest success. I feel the need for vigilant observation of market behavior currently.
The "normal intrest" rates is not just a problem in the sense of general business, but is seems its discouraged the next generation from trying to start their own ventures as they see the new market being unfair to them compared to their predecessors, this lack of supply entry into the market may be at least part of the reason inflation rates refuse to drop back to optimal levels as suppliers refuse to enter markets, as it's not as profitable as trying to find work with establised companies or recieving money from government benefits.
Great video, With factors like inflation, interest rates, and global events shaping the economy, it's essential to stay informed about how these changes could impact our finances.
It's crucial for us to be proactive and adapt our financial strategies accordingly.
Changes in interest rates can impact everything from borrowing costs to consumer spending and investment decisions. That was a good period, i ain't gonna lie
I'm particularly worried about inflation. If prices keep rising, it's going to affect everything from groceries to housing costs, making it harder for us to keep up with our expenses.
Let's not forget higher mortgage payments and increased borrowing costs, which has already put a strain on my finances.
where a firm like Folmar Advisory could really come in handy
Interest rates under Volcker were around 20% during the late 70's and early 80's.
And our country collapsed...right? Oh, no...wait a minute...it didn't.
Yup. But that was when debt was around $1 Trillion give or take depending on which year you’re looking at. So you can handle 20% for a short time. When you at over $34 Trillion you can’t.
@@wholeNwon I'm in favor of healthy interest rates after 20+ years of zero or near zero interest rates and financialization of the market. Essentially the end of Alan Greenspan era. Reminds me why Ayn Rand called Greenspan "The Undertaker" back in the 1960's.
@@p.d.stanhope7088 It was a period that reflected the cruelty of capitalism. But the wealthy churning unprofitable "businesses" did quite well.
To be precise the prime rate was 21% that recession was brutal but Volker bludgeond runaway inflation into deflation.📉On the plus side savers through certificates CDs were finally getting after years of little to no gains some healthy returns on their savings including my parents.📈💵
I think the credit spreads are still tight, so I don't have much exposure to any corporate credit, loans, or bonds. On the debt side I currently prefer 0-3 month U.S. treasuries. There is a possibility that inflation isn't over therefore it may be best to avoid long duration bonds.
Good analysis :)
I don’t see the US having a Reichsmarks problem like Germany did in the 1920’s. However, the current US situation is unsustainable. The problem is that no one knows how much we can take and when the system implodes. A true Charlie Foxtrot at that point. I hold 10% gold as a hedge.
10% is a good number. Miners breaking out. Up 24% on GDX in a month!
Will the japan 1990 crash finally happen to US stocks?
No
Thank you!
Well, the problem is that current real asset prices are ten times higher compared to the era when the rates were normal for Marks. Debt burden profile is also substantially different. Hence, fair enough to say,the rates are high...
True. Free loans are addictive like crack. This will be a painful detox.
I agree 100% with Marks. High is over 10%.
Given someone who has worked for Howard’s firm it is not that simple as just buying bonds vs equity. The credit selection is critical from a risk perspective ie minimise losing capital. Where the money in made is buying bonds at a discount vs at par and collecting the coupon and the residual value discount to par on maturity. This risk here if you get in wrong is the credit default.
Very nice. Thanks a lot. (P.S.: music is too loud) ;)
As a value investor and a disciple of Buffett, Munger and Pabrai should we not be focusing on macroeconomics?
No one is always right, even Buffett lol
@@yldrmcs obviously, but I wouldn’t bet against his decisions, would you ??
@@saferandquieteroads never mind the "market" and tell me how you became a racist
@@yldrmcs after I met your mum
I’m old enough to remember that the interest rates in the late 70s to early 80s were in the upper teens. This ain’t nothing uncommon
In the 80s the national debt was $3 trillion. Today it’s $38 trillion. The interest on that debt won’t be common if we get to the feens.
Houses also cost 60gs, gas was under a buck and the internet wasnt a thing. These "back in my day" tend to overlook today's reality
Most of the world is under-invested. Japan are for example starting to encourage their local population to adopt and buy shares. So I think bonds are only relevant in certain places
Thanks for the education 😊
I am a fan of Howard Marks, but if you look at his latest holdings (dataroma) he is primarily in industrials, energy, and financials.
His statement was credit investing now yields higher returns than it did when you invested in a long low rate environment. Well duh
I just want to ask about the Free NM finance course?? I can't see it on your website? Please reply
I've been building up a cash position. When I say this I mean treasuries that are short term. Trying to have as much money ready and yielding 5%, in expectation of the next turn where it makes sense to deploy it
The Government's in a bubble.
You cannot cut your way out of recession you've got to invest your way out of recession, the Conservative party are in the dark ages on policy they've got to think again. My primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about £170k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
A strategy to protect against inflation is through the U.S stock market, especially the S&P500 & various ETFs. Investors must know where to put their money and how to distribute it in order to protect it against inflation while still making a profit, especially during a recession.
The truth is that people are finally waking up to the fact that our systems are breaking down in thousands of different ways all around us. Personally, the financial market seems like the only way to go with my long-term horizon (accumulated about £557,000 in earnings since May 2021), but if you don't have that time luck, it's a tough market out there down almost nowhere feels safe!
I've known I've wanted to start investing for a few months but just haven't been brave enough to start due to the market so far since mid last year. I have 60k i want to transfer into an s&s isa but its hard to bite the bullet and do it. £557k is a huge milestone , Please whats your strategy ? i will love to have an insight.
I am aided by my CFA ’’ Vivian Carol Gioia, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..!
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Hi, have you considered to post on google podcast? Thank you
Every should rewatch the from 7:20 on the fed and us selling bonds. No wonder gold is skyrocketing
Almost 20 years ago, Brazilian ex-president Lula was among the first to systematically pay people to secure their votes. Nowadays , others have perfected this scheme by having the central bank monetize government debt. Inflation and unresolved social disruptions are the price to pay. Good luck with that, “happy” voters. Keep voting whoever pledges to send you the biggest checks and live at their mercy.
Yes, like Corporate welfare, right?
@@shayscott7498 Yes! At least the GFC around 2008 showed that people got evicted while banks bailed out.
I was looking at corporates back in October but got greedy looking for credit spreads to widen. I think they'll probably get off these depressed lows again though and an opportunity to buy will present itself again. Especially with inflation still not under control.
🎉🎉🎉lessgo lifer !! ❤ happy birthday big fella ,all gravy all the way baby !
So many people make predictions, but there's only one Nostradamus.
And he's long dead.
@@wholeNwon you must be the smartest man in the room when you're all alone.
Ouch
The spread is so narrow at the moment, it is worrisome. Hard to justify buying anything other can government debt.
Really? With Eastern Central Banks now taking control of the gold market, and soon silver, it's gold, silver and the miners for me.
How do you invest in “credit instruments” or government bonds?
If you have a brokerage account, you buy BIL, IEF, TLT. There's dozens of others but those are the ones I track. A money market is the same thing but you're dealing with a bank or institution that cuts into profits and usually doesn't provide the higher pct returns as the pure equities. The shorter term ones (BIL) are the stablest.
How is the devaluation of the dollar measured? How, then, does dollar devaluation compare to the interest rate earned from debt instruments?
There's average consumer rates and then there's millionaire & billionaire rates... rich people get considerably cheaper rates
My credit union will charge only 3% over certificate or share so like 5% to 8% for a personal loan. I've seen stock secured loans at other CUs up to 85% of portfolio value for about the same (my particular CU doesn't do those). I make ~5% on just on emergency savings so how much cheaper can it be for them?
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It's inspiring to hear how malias, mentorship and your dedication haveled to such remarkable financial
Making money is all about investing in the right way most investment failures and losses usually happen when you invest without a proper guide.
Investing in stocks is a good idea, a good trading system would put you through many days of success
I know Malia, she has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in the UK as she has been really helpful and changed lots of lives. The very first time we tried, we invested$2000 and after a week, we received$10,500, that really helped us a lot to pay off our bills
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