Interestingly enough, about 2 weeks ago, I did a break-down of all the final Betfair scorelines for the MBM system that have come in since February (not the Poisson pack). I wanted to try determine if there was an edge for doing a spread across the top 3 (or so) most common scorelines. I found some combinations that were marginally profitable, but sadly not enough to to justify all the effort placing the bets and to cover the subscription costs. I'll post them below, just in case anyone's interested (Note that I missed a few matches here and there, and it doesn't include the last 2 weeks of data, so not 100% accurate. But still a decent sample size): MBM System Most Frequent Scorelines: 1-0 = 36 1-1 = 27 2-1 = 23 0-1 = 22 0-0 = 21 2-0 = 17 1-2 = 16 2-2 = 15 1-3 = 11 3-0 = 10 0-2 = 10 3-1 = 9 0-3 = 8 3-2 = 4 2-3 = 3 3-3 = 2 Any Other HOME Wins: 4-0 = 4 4-1 = 4 4-2 = 3 4-3 = 1 5-0 = 1 5-1 = 1 5-2 = 1 6-2 = 1 Any Other AWAY Wins: 1-4 = 2 2-4 = 2
That’s really interesting, thanks for posting that - I’m going to dive in to this in the next few days so this will prove helpful. Drop me an email if you’d like to subscribe again, I know money is tight for us all so I’ll sort something out for you 👍🏻
@@TheMathBetMan No worries. I'm still subscribed. Looking forward to the deeper dive into these Correct Score stats. I really think selective Correct Score betting may be an untapped gem. Particularly if combined with the increased stakes strategy (including a stop loss). Just need to fine-tune the selections.
Quick question if I may, can you please clarify what you mean by the draw correct scores? Eg is it where the poisson predicts value for the draw market in the match odds, or betting every single correct score draw regardless of the WDL market?
Hi Peter, good to hear from you again, hope you’re well. So by that I meant any correct score that results in a draw, so independent of the WDW market predictions. I went through looking at the stats separately, so when looking at the correct scores I wasn’t looking at the WDW predictions and vice versa. The two often don’t gel when you do look at them together and the correct score is a bit of a cheat code that will give scores against different outcomes so you don’t have to predict the winner at all
@@TheMathBetMan Just to make sure I am right, you back any draw that poisson shows, hence might only be 1 or 2 a game? Is it level stakes eg 1 point per selection or dutch if 2 or more on the same game?
Sorry for the delay Peter, missed this comment for some reason. The results in the video apply to staking 5 pts on each and every game - so depending on the odds for each score that 5 pts would be split accordingly across the 5 scores in order to give an equal profit regardless of which score came in. Using an online Dutching calculator will do this for you. Because so many of the matches generate at least one draw scoreline in the top 5, it means we have a good chance of hitting the correct score when a draw does occur. To further refine this theory you could only place bets on the draw scorelines that appear in the top 5 scores but I haven’t tested this.
@@TheMathBetMan Sorry a bit confused, so do you dutch all correct scores that show a draw in the top 5, or just the draws? And when you dutch do you take into account all the top 5 odds or just the draws, eg 1 draw showing in top 5 = 5 points or 2 showing in the top 5 you dutch the 2 using only those 2 odds?
@@TheMathBetMan Did it?! Your spreadsheet for May is saying £3.96 profit for £2 level stakes but you've missed several losing selections in your records. 5 losing draw selections on 11 & 12 May. 3 losing selections on 15 May. These would put you into a loss for the month... I've been subscribed for almost 2 months. I am in a loss for my first month. I am in small profit position currently for my 2nd month, having switched to increasing stakes (I would be in a loss for level stakes), but I have not covered the subscription fee both times. I've emailed you twice about this. You say you offer 24/7 email support and have offered (in prior videos) free subscriptions following losing months but this appears to be a blatant lie. Now you're promoting other betting methods and trying to sell us t-shirts!
Firstly, if I missed some selections from the spreadsheet then I apologise to people who feel they’ve been misled. I make a point of stating that I struggle sometimes with the upkeep and I’m not going to keep justifying that. Secondly, I offer 24/7 support to polite people. If you think you can email me and try and tell me not to record videos or sell t-shirts etc, they you’re wrong. Would you like to replace the small income I make from my graphic design work Mark? Would you like me to stop working on any project that doesn’t suit you, regardless of whether it means me paying my bills or not? For the record, I do this because it’s a release for me and I enjoy getting lost in spreadsheets and numbers to get away from the daily struggles. I don’t even have enough money to place bets on my own work at the moment - not a great scammer am I? In your email you say that if I don’t give you the next month for free you’ll unsubscribe - I have given free subscriptions to dozens of people but I’m happy to decline this time. Over the past few months it’s been an struggle for me to be able to get out of bed, to be able to take my kids to school and to leave the house at all. I’ve tried my very best to keep the service going and always front up if I’ve made any mistakes - which I do more often than I’d like. When I get emails and messages like yours it can set me back, stop me from wanting to engage at all and generally make me feel shit. Maybe think about the person behind whatever it is your ranting about and how they might feel before your next outpouring.
@@TheMathBetMan Woooah, I never said you were a scammer. I never told you that you can’t record videos or sell t-shirts. Of course I can’t tell you that. I was trying to tell you how frustrating it was having not received a reply to my first email (which I feel was polite), nor receiving a reduced or free subscription for my 2nd month despite you saying in videos that you offered this. I still paid the full £50. Add to that, missing out on an occasional winning selection because of the sporadic nature of your updates or an incorrect kick-off time, thus increasing my financial loss over the two months, I just said it was disappointing to see you post videos on other betting methods and for you to send the t-shirt message when (to me), it felt like you were not doing the things you said you would. Hence, why I said I was not prepared to re-subscribe unless it was free. I am sorry if my criticism of the service I have experienced or pointing out errors in your reporting has upset you or set you back and that you feel my comments are impolite, that was not my intention! Perhaps I have misunderstood your comments/offers in your prior videos and had unrealistic expectations of the service you are providing. I don’t want to be part of the reason why you feel shit, so I’m happy to not subscribe going forward. No hard feelings.
Can I be getting daily correct score or draw odds from you
Interestingly enough, about 2 weeks ago, I did a break-down of all the final Betfair scorelines for the MBM system that have come in since February (not the Poisson pack). I wanted to try determine if there was an edge for doing a spread across the top 3 (or so) most common scorelines. I found some combinations that were marginally profitable, but sadly not enough to to justify all the effort placing the bets and to cover the subscription costs. I'll post them below, just in case anyone's interested (Note that I missed a few matches here and there, and it doesn't include the last 2 weeks of data, so not 100% accurate. But still a decent sample size):
MBM System Most Frequent Scorelines:
1-0 = 36
1-1 = 27
2-1 = 23
0-1 = 22
0-0 = 21
2-0 = 17
1-2 = 16
2-2 = 15
1-3 = 11
3-0 = 10
0-2 = 10
3-1 = 9
0-3 = 8
3-2 = 4
2-3 = 3
3-3 = 2
Any Other HOME Wins:
4-0 = 4
4-1 = 4
4-2 = 3
4-3 = 1
5-0 = 1
5-1 = 1
5-2 = 1
6-2 = 1
Any Other AWAY Wins:
1-4 = 2
2-4 = 2
That’s really interesting, thanks for posting that - I’m going to dive in to this in the next few days so this will prove helpful.
Drop me an email if you’d like to subscribe again, I know money is tight for us all so I’ll sort something out for you 👍🏻
@@TheMathBetMan No worries. I'm still subscribed. Looking forward to the deeper dive into these Correct Score stats. I really think selective Correct Score betting may be an untapped gem. Particularly if combined with the increased stakes strategy (including a stop loss). Just need to fine-tune the selections.
1-0 = 36 ? Not sure I get it someone pls explain
Why don't you make for us a pdf
Quick question if I may, can you please clarify what you mean by the draw correct scores? Eg is it where the poisson predicts value for the draw market in the match odds, or betting every single correct score draw regardless of the WDL market?
Hi Peter, good to hear from you again, hope you’re well. So by that I meant any correct score that results in a draw, so independent of the WDW market predictions. I went through looking at the stats separately, so when looking at the correct scores I wasn’t looking at the WDW predictions and vice versa. The two often don’t gel when you do look at them together and the correct score is a bit of a cheat code that will give scores against different outcomes so you don’t have to predict the winner at all
@@TheMathBetMan Just to make sure I am right, you back any draw that poisson shows, hence might only be 1 or 2 a game? Is it level stakes eg 1 point per selection or dutch if 2 or more on the same game?
Sorry for the delay Peter, missed this comment for some reason.
The results in the video apply to staking 5 pts on each and every game - so depending on the odds for each score that 5 pts would be split accordingly across the 5 scores in order to give an equal profit regardless of which score came in. Using an online Dutching calculator will do this for you.
Because so many of the matches generate at least one draw scoreline in the top 5, it means we have a good chance of hitting the correct score when a draw does occur.
To further refine this theory you could only place bets on the draw scorelines that appear in the top 5 scores but I haven’t tested this.
@@TheMathBetMan Sorry a bit confused, so do you dutch all correct scores that show a draw in the top 5, or just the draws? And when you dutch do you take into account all the top 5 odds or just the draws, eg 1 draw showing in top 5 = 5 points or 2 showing in the top 5 you dutch the 2 using only those 2 odds?
Enjoy your videos
Shame the draw system went to rat shit!
Thanks for the lovely comment - nice to hear from you. The draw system finished in profit last month and is on course to do the same this month x
@@TheMathBetMan Did it?! Your spreadsheet for May is saying £3.96 profit for £2 level stakes but you've missed several losing selections in your records. 5 losing draw selections on 11 & 12 May. 3 losing selections on 15 May. These would put you into a loss for the month...
I've been subscribed for almost 2 months. I am in a loss for my first month. I am in small profit position currently for my 2nd month, having switched to increasing stakes (I would be in a loss for level stakes), but I have not covered the subscription fee both times. I've emailed you twice about this. You say you offer 24/7 email support and have offered (in prior videos) free subscriptions following losing months but this appears to be a blatant lie. Now you're promoting other betting methods and trying to sell us t-shirts!
Firstly, if I missed some selections from the spreadsheet then I apologise to people who feel they’ve been misled. I make a point of stating that I struggle sometimes with the upkeep and I’m not going to keep justifying that.
Secondly, I offer 24/7 support to polite people. If you think you can email me and try and tell me not to record videos or sell t-shirts etc, they you’re wrong. Would you like to replace the small income I make from my graphic design work Mark? Would you like me to stop working on any project that doesn’t suit you, regardless of whether it means me paying my bills or not? For the record, I do this because it’s a release for me and I enjoy getting lost in spreadsheets and numbers to get away from the daily struggles. I don’t even have enough money to place bets on my own work at the moment - not a great scammer am I?
In your email you say that if I don’t give you the next month for free you’ll unsubscribe - I have given free subscriptions to dozens of people but I’m happy to decline this time.
Over the past few months it’s been an struggle for me to be able to get out of bed, to be able to take my kids to school and to leave the house at all. I’ve tried my very best to keep the service going and always front up if I’ve made any mistakes - which I do more often than I’d like.
When I get emails and messages like yours it can set me back, stop me from wanting to engage at all and generally make me feel shit. Maybe think about the person behind whatever it is your ranting about and how they might feel before your next outpouring.
@@TheMathBetMan Woooah, I never said you were a scammer. I never told you that you can’t record videos or sell t-shirts. Of course I can’t tell you that. I was trying to tell you how frustrating it was having not received a reply to my first email (which I feel was polite), nor receiving a reduced or free subscription for my 2nd month despite you saying in videos that you offered this. I still paid the full £50.
Add to that, missing out on an occasional winning selection because of the sporadic nature of your updates or an incorrect kick-off time, thus increasing my financial loss over the two months, I just said it was disappointing to see you post videos on other betting methods and for you to send the t-shirt message when (to me), it felt like you were not doing the things you said you would. Hence, why I said I was not prepared to re-subscribe unless it was free.
I am sorry if my criticism of the service I have experienced or pointing out errors in your reporting has upset you or set you back and that you feel my comments are impolite, that was not my intention!
Perhaps I have misunderstood your comments/offers in your prior videos and had unrealistic expectations of the service you are providing. I don’t want to be part of the reason why you feel shit, so I’m happy to not subscribe going forward. No hard feelings.
This is awful customer service.