Given that spades were bid from your LHO, as well as the fact that declarer knows exactly the point distribution of the defense (11-6 or 12-5), isn't it likely that the finesse wins with a percentage lot higher than 50%? Perhaps even more than the 75% chance of the missing aces sitting in the right places?
It is certainly a close call as to whether to finesse the spades at trick one or not. If we assume the spades are 5:2 which is the most likely layout, then strictly on principle of vacant places (www.allthingsbridge.co.uk/the-principle-of-vacant-places) North is a 5:2 favourite for holding the King of spades, which gives about a 71.4% chance for the spade finesse to succeed. There is of course the information that North holds more HCP than South so is more likely to hold the King of spades as well so this probably pushes the true odds closer to 75%. As mentioned in the video, the chance of either one of the Aces being in the correct place is around 75% so I think both of these lines are very close. Interestingly if the King of spades finesse fails then you are very likely to immediately fail in your contract as the Ace of diamonds is almost certainly with your LHO (to give them enough points to open the bidding) whereas playing the Ace of spades still gives you chances with this layout. Overall it is very close, and I wouldn’t criticise anyone for taking the spade finesse at trick one as it is so close. The defence have done well to lead spades at trick one to put you to this guess straight away! Hope that helps! Dom
Yes, you are right, I hadn't thought of the immediate failure of the contract should the finesse fail... That's the proper bridge thinking! Thanks a lot Dom and congrats for your work!
I don't see you mention how I would play this situation at 18:00. My thoughts was Ace of spades, then lead Q of spades through south. Trumping if he plays the king of spades, or throw a loser if he does not play the king of spades, that way I have 3 finesses, if one of them work the contract is good. I would not finesse the first trick, as it's more common to not underlead the king than it is, I guess the king of spades is in South (i would be wrong in this scnenario, but it's what I would do) I do get that right only have 6-9p. I might aswell play low diamond to hand, try clubs back to dummy, and then try the Q of spades. I also forgot thinking about drawing the trumps, I'm not sure it matters that much right here in the finessing part. but if one is void it would matter. Ace of spade first trick, draw trumps. Then Finesse clubs/diamonds, and then finesse Queen of spades. That's my priority order
Hi Martin, I am afraid taking the Ace of spades and then leading the Queen of spades is not a true finesse. The reason for this is because you do not have the Jack so the Queen being led doesn't generate a trick. This is because if the King is covered then we are forced to ruff and we have gained nothing. If instead the King is on your left then you throw away a loser on the Queen and you lose to the King so you have exchanged losers and therefore also gained nothing. It is important to realise that whenever you lead an honour out (ie the first card to a trick) in attempt to take a finesse (or as this case a ruffing finesse) you must have an equivalent honour that you are 'setting up'. By leading the Q in the example above, you achieve nothing if they cover with the K. If you had QJ then you would be achieving something because as they cover you have set up your J. If you are interested in learning more about this please see more about 'sandwich finesses' on my website! www.allthingsbridge.co.uk/the-finesse/?preview_id=1424&preview_nonce=f7d14c43f4&_thumbnail_id=1442&preview=true Hope that helps, Dom
@@learnmodernbridge101 ahh,, right. that's true. I dont have the jack so even if the king falls, I've still not gained anything as I'm still losing the next spade. You are right! :D Thanks for explaining
Given that spades were bid from your LHO, as well as the fact that declarer knows exactly the point distribution of the defense (11-6 or 12-5), isn't it likely that the finesse wins with a percentage lot higher than 50%? Perhaps even more than the 75% chance of the missing aces sitting in the right places?
It is certainly a close call as to whether to finesse the spades at trick one or not. If we assume the spades are 5:2 which is the most likely layout, then strictly on principle of vacant places (www.allthingsbridge.co.uk/the-principle-of-vacant-places) North is a 5:2 favourite for holding the King of spades, which gives about a 71.4% chance for the spade finesse to succeed. There is of course the information that North holds more HCP than South so is more likely to hold the King of spades as well so this probably pushes the true odds closer to 75%. As mentioned in the video, the chance of either one of the Aces being in the correct place is around 75% so I think both of these lines are very close.
Interestingly if the King of spades finesse fails then you are very likely to immediately fail in your contract as the Ace of diamonds is almost certainly with your LHO (to give them enough points to open the bidding) whereas playing the Ace of spades still gives you chances with this layout.
Overall it is very close, and I wouldn’t criticise anyone for taking the spade finesse at trick one as it is so close. The defence have done well to lead spades at trick one to put you to this guess straight away!
Hope that helps!
Dom
Yes, you are right, I hadn't thought of the immediate failure of the contract should the finesse fail... That's the proper bridge thinking! Thanks a lot Dom and congrats for your work!
I don't see you mention how I would play this situation at 18:00.
My thoughts was Ace of spades, then lead Q of spades through south. Trumping if he plays the king of spades, or throw a loser if he does not play the king of spades, that way I have 3 finesses, if one of them work the contract is good. I would not finesse the first trick, as it's more common to not underlead the king than it is, I guess the king of spades is in South (i would be wrong in this scnenario, but it's what I would do)
I do get that right only have 6-9p. I might aswell play low diamond to hand, try clubs back to dummy, and then try the Q of spades.
I also forgot thinking about drawing the trumps, I'm not sure it matters that much right here in the finessing part. but if one is void it would matter.
Ace of spade first trick, draw trumps. Then Finesse clubs/diamonds, and then finesse Queen of spades. That's my priority order
Hi Martin,
I am afraid taking the Ace of spades and then leading the Queen of spades is not a true finesse. The reason for this is because you do not have the Jack so the Queen being led doesn't generate a trick. This is because if the King is covered then we are forced to ruff and we have gained nothing. If instead the King is on your left then you throw away a loser on the Queen and you lose to the King so you have exchanged losers and therefore also gained nothing.
It is important to realise that whenever you lead an honour out (ie the first card to a trick) in attempt to take a finesse (or as this case a ruffing finesse) you must have an equivalent honour that you are 'setting up'. By leading the Q in the example above, you achieve nothing if they cover with the K. If you had QJ then you would be achieving something because as they cover you have set up your J.
If you are interested in learning more about this please see more about 'sandwich finesses' on my website!
www.allthingsbridge.co.uk/the-finesse/?preview_id=1424&preview_nonce=f7d14c43f4&_thumbnail_id=1442&preview=true
Hope that helps,
Dom
@@learnmodernbridge101 ahh,, right. that's true. I dont have the jack so even if the king falls, I've still not gained anything as I'm still losing the next spade. You are right! :D Thanks for explaining