Why Todd Gurley should NOT win the NFL MVP (NFL Breakdowns Ep 122)
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- Опубліковано 17 лис 2024
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In my latest video breakdown, I wanted to analyze Todd Gurley and the Rams' offense under Sean McVay. For this video, I tracked and charted all 198 carries to discuss what I saw on film. In my opinion, and based on my tracking, I DON'T think he should win the MVP.
For this video, I also tracked an addition 500 running back carries from the following players: Malcolm Brown, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Chris Carson, Christian McCaffrey, Mike Davis, while making comparisons to Gurley. Plus I also looked back at Adrian Peterson's 2012 MVP season and I think the distinction between the two is clear.
The videos are considered to be used under the "Fair Use Doctrine" of United States Copyright Law, Title 17 U.S. Code Sections 107-118. Videos are used for editorial and educational purposes only and I do not claim ownership of any original video content. I don't use said video clips in advertisements, marketing or for direct financial gain. All video content in each clip is considered owned by the individual broadcast companies.
*Insert ignorant comment about how you're wrong and your 20 hours of analysis is nothing to my armchair coaching and analysis*
Two years in a row in the mvp discussion why the only person is pat mahomes
Andrew Wyatt you’re wrong and your 20 hours of analysis is nothing to my armchair coaching and analysis
*your just mad because your a rams fan*
@@bruhmoment-ky8ck no I'm not Lol
@Bruce Parkes omg. You disregarded all of his points on why he's getting these touchdowns and stats.
Todd Gurley definitely isn’t carrying that Rams team how Adrian Peterson was carrying that Vikings team not even close.
G facts
Yeah but the Rams have a way better win percentage
Shampoo Fully you clearly don’t understand what he’s trying to say
Shampoo Fully did u miss the concept? the Vikings in 2012 very well might have not won a game without Adrian Peterson. AP carried them to 10-6 and made the playoffs with Leslie Fraiser as a coach and Christian ponder as a quarterback with little offensive weapons. The rams have the best wide receiver trio in the nfl, Shawn mcvae who is a coach of the year and turned Goff around, and a great offensive line ( something AP also didn’t have) Gurley himself admitted he’s not near the caliber of AP
@@prestonhillukka6639 the best wr trio in the league? Please leave youtube
now cj anderson is doing better than gurley in the same offense. that pretty much proves your point. great job!!
Yah because CJ gets like 20 more carries than gurley cuz he was hurt
(Gurley was hurt)
It’s not Gurley’s fault he is on a good team with good coaches
Correct, but that also kinda supports the argument that he is not the MOST valuable player in the league. Mahomes is the MVP imo, but I can also see Brees getting it
This didnt age well
so what your saying is Trent Richardson would be great on the rams
No. Trent Richardson is terrible. My OLc stat is 3.2 ypc on Gurley's runs. I think Richardson goes for less: Gurley >>>> Richardson.
Richardson lacks vision ofc not
trent richardson had terrible vision, this is still an offense that requires some degree of vision.
Trent Richardson wasn’t a terrible RB he had too much pressure put on him to carry a sorry team as a RB with a sub par o line. That’s not all his fault
Bailey Collins When he went to the colts all the pressure was gone and he still didn’t produce
If you are using the fact of having a good O Line to penalize the RB, then you have to make the same argument for QB with respect to O Line and Wide Receivers and even Running Backs. Also, does Mahomes get penalized for having a great coach? You cannot tease these factors out convincingly and you are not applying the same standard to the QBs.
Yes. You 100% should factor that into the analysis. It makes the QBs life easier having a great OL.
I’m pretty sure the Saints line allows the least amount of pressure
Rich Cook Andy is not a great coach pat is just doing good because of his short fast receivers
killerboy 1155 he’s one of the greatest offensive minds in the game. Even trying to debate that is foolish
@@killerboy-cw1wg Andy Reid got Donovan McNabb to the super bowl. That should speak for itself.
The time and effort you are putting into your analysis is amazing. Thank you! You're fascinating to watch.
Thank you Steven!
Thanks, Steven!
@@SamuelGoldNFL Mahomes doesn't deserve to be MVP. If anything, Zeke and Khalil Mack should be the top 2 MVP candidates. Mahomes is getting wrecked tonight.
That "O-Line" is also the reason why the QB has time to find their receivers making acrobatic catches, plays and YAC's down the field (which in turn) still piles up yard stats for the QB. 🏈
Okay, I think a lot of triggered rams fans are going to flood the comment section
Bigby Wolf I’m a lifetime rams friend but hey he has a point I’m not mad. I think mahomes deserves it as much as anhlne
Anyone
Carson Marsteller I respect that, you didn’t get mad over his opinion, and no doubt Gurley is doing so great, but if you listen to samuel’s video, he proves his point very well!
Yes I am triggered
Davon Pearson lol
The patriots defence proved your point
John Mehaffey he was injured dude
(Preface: This is not a disagreement on your Gurley take. I think you made a lot of great points.) Although Drew Brees is awesome and a top 10 all-time QB, breaking career records shouldn't be a factor in deciding an individual-year MVP award. It would be very interesting to see a similar video to this (if you have the time) breaking down Drew Brees and how well he is playing this year. How many of his passing yds/TDs should be attributed to him? How many should be attributed to Sean Payton scheming up open receivers? How many should be attributed to Brees' skill players taking short completions/screens for long RAC? How do these metrics compare to guys like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson who create a lot of the offense on their own and make up for the deficiencies of their schemes? Further, with the Saints switching to a more run-oriented offense, Brees has become less valuable to the Saint's success. In week 3, he threw for 120 yds, 1 TD, and 1 INT in a 30-20 win over the Vikings. In week he threw for 217 yds, 1 TD, and 1 INT in a 33-18 win over the Giants. He's had really good games this year, but if the Saints can still win handily when he doesn't play well, then is he the most valuable player?
To me, it's hard to argue with Mahomes as the MVP. You look at all the single-season records he's breaking. You compare last year's offense (which was good) to this year's offense (which is unstoppable). The major change to that offense between last year and this year is Mahomes. He's made all the difference to the Chiefs, making him the most valuable player in the NFL.
All in all though, great video! Love the breakdowns and I can't wait to see what you have up next!
I was debating doing a Drew Brees video next to answer those questions myself if I'll be honest with you. My question: If Brees gets injured, where are the Saints? I don't think they are near where they are now, but that's just my opinion.
I totally get the Mahomes vote. He's killing it, but the team went to the playoffs last year with Alex Smith. I like Smith and Mahomes is obviously playing better, but man that team is ridiculous too.
@@SamuelGoldNFL If you replaced Brees with Smith this year, I could see them having a similar season to the Chiefs last year (10-6 playoff team, but not good enough to get past the 1st rd). Although as a big Redskins fan who thinks Alex Smith is not very good and his inability to challenge defenses with his throws is one of the main problems with skins' offense, I could be wrong about that. I guess that's also an argument against Mahomes as it speaks to the crazy talent on the Chiefs.
@@SamuelGoldNFL that was going to be my comment. He's on another level and it doesn't seem like it's just the scheme or the players.
@@SamuelGoldNFL Brees is playing on an offense with plenty of weapons too, and a better o-line than what Mahomes has had. While he's incredibly valuable for his team and they'd be nowhere near the same without him, you can say that for basically the top 30% of starting QBs in the league in terms of where the team would be if the starter went down with an injury. Matt Flynn had some nice performances filling in for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, but we all know that doesn't take away from the importance that Rodgers has had to the Packers since he became the starter. Smith may have been a decent QB, but Mahomes is just a different animal altogether.
All in all, I agree with Spencer in the fact that MVP isn't a lifetime achievement award. That's what the Pro Football Hall of Fame is for. You give it to the best player that year. If Brees can actually play as long as he says he can, he'll still have a chance at it the next year or two with all the young talent that Saints offense has right now. If Brees doesn't win it this year, that doesn't mean he couldn't win it in 2019. There's no guarantee that Mahomes and this offense will have this kind of run again in a single year, so if Mahomes plays well enough to earn it then he should get it.
I think with the Chiefs defense without Mahomes they'd be .500 right now.
I agree that Gurley shouldn't win MVP. But I also don't like the arguments that you make for Brees. He definitely is a great QB with fantastic career numbers but the MVP award should only be about the current season. It was basically given that he would break those records this year. He could have put up pretty pedestrian numbers and still would have got them. That being said, I don't think it disqualifies Brees since he is playing extremely well and has some other arguments to be in contention. He just shouldn't win a yearly award based on career numbers.
Exactly. This ain't the Lifetime Achievement Award! Patty Mahomes = MVP!
Am I surprised about how much yards Nick Chubb makes on his own? I'm not.
The problem I have with this video is it discredits one player for how easy his job is made by his team but yet doesn't account for this with other players. By the logic in this video, every quarterback should be losing stats where their protection was good and their receivers were open. Additionally, are we going to start taking away stats for players that received more touches closer to the goal because they have a good defense that generated turnovers? I'm not saying what was mentioned in the video wasn't valid, but I think it's a rabbit hole that if entered has to be fully realized.
couldn't say it better myself.
robert thaler that still falls in the same category of judgment based off of possibly misleading stats. I'm not saying that isn't a good way to distinguish the two runners but even that stat can be misleading. A runner that dominates a good defense is given the same acknowledgement as one that performs averagely against a bad defense. The point I'm trying to make isn't that stats are a bad way of comparing players just that they are very easily misrepresentative.
It’s not about completely taking a player out, it’s about replacing him with an average player. If you replace Brees of Mahomes with an average QB Saints or Chiefs would be significantly worse, but if you replace Gurley with an average HB Rams would only be slightly worse. QB is just harder to be replaced. If Bell can be replaced by Connor pretty easily, Gurley can also be replaced by another HB pretty easily.
LeBryant Howard similar to the steelers, you take Bell out and Conner is not doing too bad thanks to the OLine.
LeBryant Howard exactly that’s why Russell Wilson should have won it last year not Tom Brady
I agree with you up to the bell/Connor part. Steelers got lucky with a sleeper that can ball pretty well. Good point thi
Carlos Pizarro *tho
And their line is good above average
So McVay should get the MVP award? Average QB at best, great running back, and 3 receivers that would maybe be WR3's on most good teams. (none of them are elite talents) Overall I was not a fan of this video but I do respect the perspective that this video offered. One thing I think you could have done better is compared his per carry averages with OL contribution to other top backs such as Hunt, Elliott, or even Joe Mixon. As a pessimist, I immediately assume that you didn't use those kinds of backs because they wouldn't have fit your narrative. Overall I respect your opinion and all the work and effort you put into a quality analytical video and I'll sub for that.
I think you're undervaluing vision here, which contributes to that "automatic 3 yards per play" statistic. I also don't think you can knock a guy because he has a good scheme and teammates for something like MVP, being on a good team is just something that goes into it that's how it is.
He clearly showed the back up is able to pick up those 3 yards also. It is a scheme and O line that is getting those yards.
Your last comment it really bad. If they didn’t have Gurley, they would not have the same run game. It would put more pressure on Goff. Yes the offensive line gets credit for good blocking, but that’s not used against a running back. Their job is to make lanes for him to run, but, it’s on the RB to find it and go through it to pick up the yards. The biggest benefit with Gurley is he can be a receiver. That gives his QB another option and makes Gurley that more of a threat. AP did good cuz he is a power back with speed, but can’t be a receiver. Plus the Oline was built to block for Peterson. Every back has a different build, and is in a different system with different guys. Elliot and Barkley both have to pick up a lot for their teams which can flaw the numbers. The MVP will come down to Gurley, Brees, and Mahomes. But it will be a tight race between them, and I do think Gurley has a good chance to win it. But using an offensive line to show that he doesn’t deserve it? That has to be in a segment of C’mon man. Learn how football works.
I’m a salty Rams fan... still think Chief Pat should win MVP though if I’m being honest
Nah, it's gonna be Brees
@@CrimsonKobaNakirigumi Kamara is having a career season, Michael Thomas is good, the Saints o-line is borderline top 5 in the NFL. Before Kamara and Thomas came along, how many times in a row did the Saints miss the playoffs? Brees is a good QB but he is overrated this season. Mahomes has a stronger argument, due to his FAST GROWTH, but Chiefs made the playoffs four seasons in a row before this season. If anything, Zeke should win MVP if Dallas wins the NFC east. Khalil Mack deserves to be considered too.
Vaccum Cleaner He just handed the Eagles a big fat L by throwing 4 tds. Yeah definitely overrated. This is coming from an Eagles fan btw
@@Penguinman565 And Zeke tore up your 2nd ranked rushing defense. In 2012 & 2014-2016 Brees led the league in passing yards, in 3 of those seasons he also led in passing ypg, in 2 of those seasons he led in passing attempts, and he also led in passing TDs in 2012. Guess what? He missed the playoffs all four of those years. Guess what else? That was before Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara came to town. I will agree I doubt Brees would be getting shit wrecked like Mahomes is tonight. I'm loving this Rams-Chiefs game tonight.
Vaccum Cleaner Well I know that Cowboys are probably going to win the division because Alex Smith injury. Good luck with Zeke carrying your team while Dak Prescot throws 3 interceptions. I can’t wait to see Jerry Jones face when he realizes that he’s down 50-0 to the saints in the playoffs. Also I don’t look into the past when Drew had an awful team that surrounded him.
If you'd waited 6 weeks this could've been called "CJ Anderson is the reason Todd Gurley shouldn't win MVP".
Can we get a video on how good Saquon has been for the Giants so far!
Why do you think I looked at 111 of his rushing attempts for this breakdown :) Just need to finish it out and I can do something on him.
@@SamuelGoldNFL oh man I can't freaking wait!! I personally feel that he has already made a claim as the best RB in the NFL.
@@S3rv3nT4p odd
@N GUY that's pretty fucked up. Your not ok in the head buddy
I'd be surprised if he didn't get rookie of the year.
You did a great job with your research and analysis of Gurley, but your argument could easily be said about the frontrunner for the MVP, Patrick Mahomes. He has some of the best weapons in the NFL, with Hill, Kelce, and Hunt, and he has one of the best quarterback coaches in the league with Andy Reid, and he has a pretty good and experienced o-line. Another argument you made was that the MVP should go to a player who is leading a team to more wins if they would without him. I think that Gurley is the motor of this offense, every drive he puts them in the right position to get a to score, if the Rams didn't have Gurley, they'd probably be 5-4 at best, with how terrible the Rams defense is playing, and the fact that Goof hasn't developed into a true team leader.
SportsMixes02 i disagree. If you saw malcolm brown is averaging the same yards per carry as gurley so the rams would be fine without him. The offence puts gurley in scoring positions and most his tds are within 5 yds so nothing special
In before triggered Ram fans dislike this video
I expect Rams fans not to like it, but this is my honest opinion after tracking over 700 rushing attempts. I like Gurley as a player, but the scheme and offensive line is absolutely ridiculous.
@@SamuelGoldNFL Oh absolutely. It's a two horse race between Mahomes and Brees. But good film analysis, it takes away nothing from Gurley who is a top 3 back in the league.
Lol right... 😂
@@SamuelGoldNFL I'm a Rams fan and your video is 100% correct. Anyone who has watched the Rams has seen huge holes from the O-line, and Malcolm Brown has shown similar success, just without the extra tackle-breaking ability of Gurley. I didn't realize there was such a push for Gurley as MVP...I guess lots of people just look at the numbers he is putting up.
Lmao... I was thinking the same thing Samuel Gold.. I really didn't understand how gurley is considered a probable mvp candidate..... Like dam; if hes going to be an mvp he better do more than this
Gurley is good but Sean McVay’s coaching is what makes him great.
I get where you're coming from, but it seems to me like you're saying that because the rams have a good offensive line and coach, he doesnt deserve to win mvp. Why would you take away from a player's skill because he's on a good team? Thats like saying a qb doesnt deserve to win mvp if he has good recievers.
No... he is just showing that other running backs would also find success with this oline. For example, I am a Falcons fan. Matt Ryan won the MVP a couple years ago and, yes having 2 solid receivers helps however the difference is if Matt Ryan wasnt playing we wouldn't have made it to the SB. The rams would still be a stellar team without Gurley. This isnt a hack on Gurley or running backs it's a point out that LA Oline is really good. A perfect example is the Steelers... no Bell and they are still good same way the rams no Gurley still good.
@@spoonu9 idk man the argument is stupid. Just give credit to how talented the player is instead of looking at scenario of oh u take this dude off they wouldn't be as bad etc.
@@Antbeast23 okay we will see who wins MVP if you think my argument is stupid lol it's not hard to watch Gurley reach the second level defense not being touched. If you honestly think he would win it over Drew Brees this year or Pat then you need to watch more football. Gurley wont win this year or the next. A good oline makes a good ground game why don't you stop acting like this is all Gurley and give it up to the guys battling in the trenches.
I don't like the stats of the yards the line is creating for Gurley and the yards Gurley is getting after contact. I don't think you are putting in consideration for his cuts and extremely good ball carrier vision
It's hard to call it "extremely good vision" when a lot of the cuts are schemed that way. Like on the jet sweeps, all he has to do is look at the LB and that instantly tells him what way to run. Most of the decisions Gurley has to make are taking a lane for 5 yards or taking a different lane for 7 yards plus whatever he can pick up from breaking tackles
@@bobante69 picking a hole or running through a hole is ball carrier vision dumbass.
@@Tellaz If he cannot read those holes he just should not be an nfl running back. This is basic stuff and isn't really what makes him an mvp candidate.
In my opinion I pick drew Brees for MVP 21 TDS to 1 pick it's really amazing of how he does that yeah Mahomes is good but dude drew Brees is way more accurate and his rating is insane as an eagles fan I'm deathly afraid to face the saints this weekend
Brees is BETTER than Mahomes. When Mahomes faces a great defense he won't look so good anymore. Saints will defeat Chiefs when they finally play. RAMS will show Mahomes what a GREAT defense can do. RAMS FTW
Mark Vasquez stop trying to jynx mh Rams man! Mahomes is a beast!
Mark Vasquez 😂 you realize how dumb you sound?
Mark Vasquez yeah Chiefs haven’t played a great defense... Jacksonville with 3rd best overall defense, Pittsburgh with 8th overall defense, San Francisco with 10th overall defense. Those are all better defenses than the Rams who have the 13th best overall defense in the league. Educate yourself before you comment.
Mark Vasquez www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2018&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1
Source
I concur with your analysis and opinion. As an aficionado of the NFL for over 50 years, I have often believed that there are overrated running backs who run behind great linesman and an effective blocking scheme. Running backs who play for less dominating teams are often overlooked, though they are stronger and more elusive than Gurley, and should get more credit.
Liked the video and can respect the analysis, however the premise is that he cannot be mvp because he has a great o line and scheme. Pat mahomes is he not in the same position. Having Hill, to pull his fat out the fire. Your opinion is valid but I think it applies to all your choices, even Brees. Also you missed the game, against Packer where Gurley gave up a sure touchdown in order to ensure the win
Man, you're seriously reaching hard. So because Gurley has a good O-line, that diminishes his MVP potential? And percent of total offensive yards? What the fuck does that have to do with anything.
listen im a rams fan and i believe drew brees should win the mvp.
Amazing video, I've too have used this argument several times and believe that david Johnson's 2016 year was way more impressive than gurley's 2017. David Johnson put up better stats with a much worse offensive line.
On a side not just as you believe yards per carry is a stupid stat I believe that yards per catch is a misleading stat. Mainly because it doesn't account for all of the drops a wide reciever had and drops are by far the biggest momentum killer on the offense. Inflicted by themselves of course. Please keep making these videos! Its refreshing to see an analyst think critically about the game
Could you do a video on James conner and why hes been so effective this year?
Best o line. There you go 😂
@@TwizzTasty I mean then Stevan Ridley would be doing being stuffed behind the line half the time, I wanna know what kinds of runs he does, zone, vs counter, etc and which is where his effectiveness comes from
@@isaiahcharley5299 I mean obviously he is making plays too but it helps when you have the best o line. Once bell gets picked up I guarantee he won't be the same without that line
@@TwizzTasty Oh I agree man with all that, I just would love to hear the specific details of it, and why conner is doing well, and how the scheme is helping him. I'm not too knowledgeable about the deeper workings of football, so to hear it out about my own team would help me get some of that deeper workings and how much is on the O-Line like he just did with Gurley.
@@isaiahcharley5299 true. It's interesting to see things broken down
How many yards do you take away from the qb's passes for having a good OL? Say the OL gives him 5 sec to throw, but also 5 sec for the wr to run the route? How many yards are taken away from the qb because the wr because they run a clean route and beats the corner/safety? Does the qb get yards taken away when the ball is thrown behind the wr and forces the wr to stop to make the play? My point is, a good OL is key to having a good offense. Sure they can make it easy to run, but they also make it easy to pass. This was not discussed in this video.
Goes to show how smart mcvay is
Great analysis. But I think one thing you're missing in your statistical breakdown is the plays Gurley makes that hurt his own stats for the benefit of the team. Most visible example of this would be his sliding near the endzone at the end of the 4th qtr a couple weeks ago. Could have gotten more yards and maybe a TD, but he went for the win. Very, very few players at any position would do that, I think.
I agree with your points but saying he is a system RB is silly in football when there are so many football players who are system players.
Well we clearly saw how good he was with the last system. He was terrible
Why so many dislikes? I remember when the Rams played the Seahawks, Gurley only got big runs when the O Line did its job. However, when the line let defensive backs through, Gurley was stuffed. Not saying he is a bad player, but you have to give most of the credit to the Rams Offensive line. If Gurley loses that credit, how can you call him the MVP?
Has anyone else noticed that Derrick rose and Adrian Peterson careers are almost the same because they both won mvp at a young age they both got hurt young and now they are both having a good season and Derrick rose won mvp 2012 and so did Adrian Peterson
Bad comparison
Kam Teezly then you don’t even know sports
Tyshaun J nah he was right bad comparison
No not at all. Ap will be a hall of famer. Rose wont.
Derrick rose was MVP 2011
Also I love how Russell Wilson carries our Brian Schottenheimer coordinated offense with a shitty O line to a 5-5 record with a 110.2 passer rating and is getting questioned as a franchise QB. Aaron Rodgers missed a 2 yard 3rd down out route on TNF, is QB of a 4-5-1 team, and still gets included in MVP polls. Take Russell Wilson away from the Seahawks and we're 0-16. Also Bobby Wagner was robbed of DPOY 2 years straight.
If Andrew Luck can manage to get the Colts to make the playoffs would you consider him?
Not this year brees or mahomes would deserve it more
How? They both have a TON more talent surrounding them.
J Long id say so
Brees is mvp enoguh said about it
He has mt13 and ak41
This is a really good analytics breakdown, however I think there is something to be said about being able to make the correct decision even when it’s obvious it is the correct decision.
Aye, and he wasnt
Great points and analysis, but the Christian Ponder and Goff comment should be different. You can’t say “do you want this average QB or do you want arguably the best coach in today’s game and little above average QB?” Great Video, great analysis!
Its not going to be a good reaction on this video. I mean you are a Seahawks writer so there is some bias in your argument already. O-lines are the real MVPs for every offense no matter the play set. So you can't discredit Gurly for taking advantage of the lanes that his offensive line opens up due to their hard work. Thats Gurly's job as a running back.
I'm a Redskins fan, actually.
Samuel Gold Damn I forgot but tough loss for your team today man
It hurts man. I'm just hoping we can limp into the playoffs.
Samuel Gold I hear ya. Hope Alex Smith can make a smoove recovery. As a Pats Fan, I'm monitoring Gronk's situation. Wondering whats happen to him? The Guy had a monster game to start the season vs the texans and know he been a no show for most of this year. Need him to bounce back
My god, the way that offensive line blocks outside zone is so pretty. Hat on a hat every play while creating movement. The left guard was especially impressive to me.
So I guess drew brees and patty mahomes shouldn't be considered for MVP either according to your logic right? Drew brees surrounded by 2 stud running backs, Michael Thomas and arguably the best OL in football and Sean Payton calling his plays. On defense not the best secondary but still a quality front 7. Patty mahomes has Kareem Hunt in his backfield that is probably top 5 maybe top 3 running back in the NFL. Not to mention arguably the best TE in Kelce, Sammy Watkins, tyreek Hill at WR. As well as he has an older version of Sean McVay in Andy Reid. Not taking away from those guys but if you're gonna say Gurley shouldn't get it cuz of who he has around him, you should also look at all the other MVP candidates cuz all of them have damn good supporting casts too. In fact in any sport even the GOAT Michael Jordan had a strong supporting cast lol Denis Rodman, Scottie pip? Lol you're a fucking joke shove your "metrics" up your ass
@@slayerhead22 You're also missing the fact that Gurley catches the ball down the field better and more often than any other running back can. They don't just use him in the backfield. They can spread him out and motion him and make him a wide receiver too. Is that not VALUABLE?? The entire offense is ran through him. In New Orleans the offense is not ran through Drew Brees. There have been multiple games where he has thrown for under 150, 1 TD, and 1 INT and they still put up 30 points. That doesn't seem to me like Drew Brees is as valuable as you think he is. Stop being ignorant.
@@aleckubik3003 big fax
Stud Muffin lmao why are you so triggered.😂 The NFL dont care about this video, Gurley still gonna be MVP.
@@slayerhead22 You're saying with that offense and at 9-1 right now the Saints don't make the playoffs if Teddy Bridgewater starts every game remaining in the regular season? Are you high?
Also, softening Gurley's MVP chances because they play in an awful division (a big contributing factor to their 98% playoff chances right now) is a weak argument as well. I agree overall that Brees is the MVP, mainly because, while Thomas is a stud, he doesn't have much else to throw to, but your arguments don't carry any weight.
As an aside, remember when the NFC West was the best division in football because of every team BUT the Rams? Shit changes so fast in the NFL it's crazy. :P
According to his logic- Andrew luck would win
To those saying Conner's yardage totals have been trash recently and that he's not good: It certainly doesn't help that Conner hasn't been getting the ball much as of late. Since the Carolina game where he went on concussion protocol, he hasn't had more than 13 carries in his past 3 out 4 games. Ben wants to be a gunslinger, they're turning away from the run game early on for no reason, Conner can't stay healthy as of late, plus it's probable they want to preserve him for the playoffs, or at least the huge game against the Pats.
Give the dude a break, this is his first year as a starting running back in the NFL. You're all using bell's stats as having 5-6 years of experience as a starter, to compare with Conner's first year.
MVP this year should go to Sean Mcvay let’s be real...
Great video and analysis. As a Rams fan I may be biased in saying this but (and I'm sure someone had brought this up) I don't understand why Gurley should be penalized in the MVP race just for being on a top 3 offense.
What also doesn't make sense to me is the fact that you bring up how Todd Gurley is somewhat a product of his offense with the weapons they have but then bring up Drew Brees whose got a great head coach, fantastic o line, along side Micheal Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram.
As for Mahomes he probably has the most high powered offense in recent years with Hill, Kelce, Watkins, and Hunt. So again I don't understand how that is not brought up the same way it was with Gurley. Again I'm a Rams fan so I'm obviously biased, but I feel like the question is still fair.
Its a touchdown league and when he gets 30 tds he should win
TDs are team stats
@@christiansoldier77 tell that to Julio Jones
@@thawk4life Actually you are just proving my point THANKS
But Mahomes threw for 50 TDs and rushed for 2....
Gurley didn't get 30 tds or played the last 3 games
This video was made before Gurley played hurt and beat KC. And Brees lost to Dallas due to an ill advised late int. Gurley does far more than run the ball. He also catches it and the defense has to account for him on every play. Go Rams!
Everyone is forgetting about Alvin Kamara right now. Kamara is playing just as good as gurley right now.
Gurley makes so many amazing plays every game. Week in and week out he does this. Durable. Intelligent. Athletic. Rushing and receiving. I don't have the guts to discredit gurley. I know there are other players as good but why can't gurley get MVP?
Sneed Mobile Tech his o line sets up the biggest holes are you slow
Todd Gurley is the best back in the league but he definitely does not deserve the MVP. Mahomes is gonna win the MVP if he continues to play like he has. Drew Brees and Matt Ryan are also having fantastic years and are in a strong running for MVP. I hope Brees gets him one this year but it's looking like mahomes is gonna get it for sure
This was a great, deep analysis that garnered a subscription from me, but I can't help but feel like there was a missed opportunity here comparing Gurley to Peterson rather than comparing him to Shaun Alexander. Now, I didn't follow the NFL nearly as closely back in 2005, but my impression based on the way he dropped off was that Alexander benefitted from running behind two Hall of Fame offensive linemen and his amazing season was less an example of top line play from him than it was a strong fit with the overall talent of the unit. Seems like a more ample comparison for Gurley than Peterson, who was obviously playing the best running back we've seen this century in that offense.
people don't understand this video at all, gurley is arguably the #1 runningback with bell out, just not the mvp
This video did not say gurley was the 1 RB. It actually clearly made arguments that Barkley or Zeke were both more valuable than him. Barkley being much better
@@DarknessFlameMedia can you read? I said arguably and that's only one season..
@@DarknessFlameMedia he was hurt for 3 games and zeke sucks
Film Room: Why this is the stupidest argument ever. I'm not saying Gurley does/doesnt deserve it, but saying "his line blocks for him and his QB is better than Christian Ponder so he shouldn't win MVP" is not a valid argument. What do you want him to do, break 7 tackles every play? Part of being a good rb is following blocks and open lanes and having the vision, speed and agility to fit through those gaps, so it shouldn't be counted against him. Also not fair to say he shouldn't win an award this season because his play doesn't compare to one of the greatest of all time at his position. Likewise, its also not relevant that you say Drew Brees should win MVP for this season simply based on a CAREER record he happened to pass this year. Hey Vinatieri broke the all time scoring record this year, make him MVP.
My money's on Drew Brees
Your video is excellently planned out and entertaining for a nerdy stat lover
I stand by my claim that Gurley and Barkley are in a league of their own when it comes to entertainment value
They make the NFL fun to watch for me
One thing that I question for both Samuel gold and Pff when it comes to quantifying running back play is when a running back with exceptional speed breaks away and is not caught from behind or tackled after a cut. It’s impossible to know if he did it because the safety is slow or it’s their own speed or a poor angle
I appreciate the time that went into this. I found it very interesting. But If Gurley shouldn’t win MVP essentially because he benefits from being in a great offense, how can you then turn around and say Mahomes or Brees should be MVP? Mahomes has Hunt, Hill, Kelce, and others running wide open, because A) they’re great players, and B) Andy Reid knows how to deploy them effectively. Same exact thing with Brees in New Orleans. Kamara, Ingram, Thomas, coach Payton. You compare Gurley to Peterson in 2012, and basically prove that AP had a better season. That’s interesting, but irrelevant to this season. Seems like inconsistent logic.
I understand your points. I personally would not vote Gurley. However, I would put him in the 2nd after Brees before Mahomes. Even checkdown Alex made that Chiefs offense work--albeit, not on that level. Brees is the catalyst of that Saints offense. Without him, its 8 man in the box all day. I'd still give Gurley second place simply for that logic as well, without him, the defense is all in for pass defense. Not as in-depth as you but that's just my two cents. Great in-sight of Gurley. I'm a new viewer and just subbed. Great information and play analysis.
You never mentioned Gurley as a receiver tho. His blocking??
Also, you can credit an o-line for a QBs success. It's not like there isn't blocking happening inside the pocket.
That stat line also said that he is responsible for 47% of the Rams touchdowns. Which is pretty huge.
Awesome analysis and I largely agree with you but just a couple things.
1) The MVP is a NARRATIVE driven award. Case in point, Adrian Peterson comes off an ACL tear and almost breaking the rushing record. Mahomes is probably still the frontrunner if the Chiefs beat Brady and the Pats but Brees has already broken Farve’s record and beaten the Rams who everyone considered the best team in football.
2) You can’t really penalize a good player for being on a good team. Just because the play design is excellent and the offensive line is one of the best in the NFL Gurley still has to hit the right holes at the right time. Mahomes and Brees are also examples of this. A ton of their plays are being schemed wide open with elite skill position talent and good offensive lines.
3) Gurley doesn’t make up as much of his teams yards because he doesn’t have to. Ezekiel Elliot and Adrian Peterson accounting for so many of their respective teams yards is indicative of how bad those offenses are and were.
4) Gurley and Barkley basically share the same rookie season because they were failed by awful offenses but they both ripped off chunk plays occasionally that inflated the stats and made them both look better than they really were.
Last year gurley was the main cog in the offense but this year its more 60% goff and 40% gurley now. Tbh brees is going to win. The media already wants him to win, he’s having a good season too i don’t see why he shouldn’t mahomes benefits greatly from Reid and Hill
Subscribed. Good analysis on going next-level on Gurley. And tracking stats by hand? You gotta get into data science to save on time doing your analysis. It would take a long time to get there, but it would pay off in the long run.
Todd gurley doesn't need to break tackles if he is making the first guy miss. What's his yards after making the first guy miss?
I really want to see that adrian peterson season stats broken down in the same way you did Gurley. Or at least whatever part of the footage you can find. That would be fascinating to see how much he was creating and where his runs were broken down, yards after first contact, ect.
I’m not trying to start controversy but we cannot forget Khalil Mack. I know that Bears defense would be amazing even if he wasn’t there, but I think the amount of resources teams have to devote to making sure Khalil Mack doesn’t take over the game often makes it a 9-10 game against offenses. Let’s not forget Mack also literally has, what, 7.5-8 sacks, 4-5 forced fumbles, and an int anyways? Dominant and terrifying player, and he probably won’t win but I don’t think you can necessarily say anyone else has separated themselves that much from what Mack does. If anyone has any opposition as to why Mack shouldn’t win, LMK, I may be biased due to having watched Mack so much, and I also know Mack missed a few games, and that hurts him, but he’s at about a sack per game getting almost the entirety of the offenses attention as to who they can’t let dominate them.
It'd be really interesting to see this kind of analysis with James Conner and Le'Veon Bell to see just how much the Steelers OL is adding to their running game.
Seems like a sound analysis. Play calling and blocking have lot more to do with the effectiveness of the running game than people give credit for. The fact you have a Good QB and some good receivers also helps spread the defense. It also explains why Anderson did well in the backfield too! The fat contract they gave to Gurley also encouraged L'veon Bell to hold out for more money. But it's the "team" that makes it work. LA made a mistake giving him so much guaranteed money.
I feel the argument but you could do this with ANY candidate. The fact of the matter is you have to be on a playoff bound team to be in consideration for MVP thats just the politics. If you are on a playoff bound team there are a variety of factors that lead to your success (coaching/offensive scheme, offensive line, talented roster, etc.). Pat Mahomes is surrounded by an insane amount of talent and offensive mastermind in Andy reid. I'm sure if you looked into his clean looks and the metrics around him the same way you did gurley you'd be in a similar spot. Brees talent level isn't as high but that offense takes a ton of pressure off of him too.
Hey Samuel!! Tysm for this. I damn near cried from all the truth you told during this. Seems like you understand. I'm a Seahawks fan so ppl dismiss my opinion ad hominem but I say that gurley is good but gets more credit than deserves. This is why I put such heavy weight on play calling. Ive made similar arguments for why Mike Thomas is the best wide out in the game rn but it's kind of hard to tell ppl about stat metrics when they don't comprehend the lingo. And it doesn't help my case that Drew is throwing nothing but money shits to him. I usually get AB is better and I just can't see it. my top wideouts rn are Adam theilen and Mike Thomas. But ty for reminding me how important stats are in formulating a case for how good a player really is. BTW, I'll never forget APs MVP year. I still remember this one cut he made during a cards game on the sideline, absolutely shouldn't have made it. Was like something out of an anime. Unstoppable that year. One more thing...Can someone PLS get Drew an MVP?! How many CONSISTENTLY HIGH LVL years does he need to get a damn MVP...sry easily my favorite QB to watch. Can do almost no wrong. Love your channel. Nothing but truth bro. Love it. Keep up the awesome work wit the dope content. Thx again
Firstly, your ability to break down plays is great. Great work and keep it up. Having said that there are serious flaws in the logic. By this logic, Brees and Mahomes should not get it either. Bree’s doesn’t get sacked because his pass protection is insanely good plus he has so many weapons. Mahomes has a great rb, the best te in the league and the best deep threat in the league.
I'm just happy my boy blew up with this video so underrated
I’m a colts fan, but The way I see it, the MVP isn’t really an individual award, if a RB gets it, so does his offensive line, good or bad regardless of scheme. RB has to have vision to see the hole and ability to get through it. If I’m a lineman blocking for a RB that wins MVP, in my mind WE won MVP. If a QB gets it, so does his receiving core. All positions benefit from each other, that’s the point of football. If Gurley gets 3 yards untouched on average, okay, props to his Oline, but to say that because he’s not breaking tackles to get 3-5 yards every run isn’t a reason to not deserve MVP. He still has to read the blocks fast enough to see the holes and still have time to get through them. And when he gets to the second and third levels he’s still making people miss. Not saying you’re wrong, just giving a counter argument. Gurley Deserves it just as much as Brees or Mahomes
This is an incredible analysis and the work put in should be greatly appreciated, there are so many factors in football that lead to success.
It is a team sport and factors included in an offensive players success include how good a defense is, as it provides the offense better field position, oppurtunities, and tires out the opposing defense, schemes, schedule, and other offensive players.
Offensive line obviously matters, the potency of the other offensive weapons will force the defense to scheme for them, The particular teams they play throughout the season, the schemes those teams use, and which players are healthy during those games, all of which change throughout the season.
All of this makes quantifying the true value of any players in a vacuum extremely difficult, if not impossible. Very rough guesstimation is all us armchair qbs can really muster, and considering how many professionals (GMs, coaches, the whole staff) whiff with regularity, we probably don't have the means to accurately quantify most players
Can you do something on the Steelers? Their offense is top 5 in NFL. They got rid of Todd Haley and Connor is having similar production to Bell. It would be interesting to hear your analysis on them. Good videos btw
MVP isn't about how much a player contributes to his team. It is about how much players contribute to a good team. There are lots of seasons where one player is carrying a bad team, such as Barkley for the Giants, but it's not enough to be the biggest workhorse for a club. You also have to play for a good team, someone who is at least a contender.
Everything the Rams do surrounds Gurley. Without him, they couldn't do some of the other modern things that they are doing.
is he the MVP? Probably not. Brees would be better because he is the only thing that makes the Saints a contender. You could also make a case for Mahomes, but Gurley should be in that conversation because the Rams probably aren't going anywhere without him.
EDIT:
And he says exactly what I said lol.
Buddy you don’t realize when a running back receives the MVP its a compliment to the line and everyone on the field not just him. Wide receivers making their blocks, the line driving men off the ball, and obviously the guy in the back field doing his job. When someone wins and MVP it shows how the team came together to give him the chance for his greatness to be recognized.
This guy isnt saying Gurley isn't good or any running back could do what hes done. Just making the point that the rams scheme and blocking techniques fit his style of play and skill set very well. Other elite RBs (DJ, Zeke, Bell) would probably see the same success.
I understand that O-Line has a huge impact on RBs stats, but they also have a big impact on QB stats, but we don't hear about that.
I think Brees should have been the MVP, 12 consecutive years of 4,000+ yards and his primary target, Micheal Thomas has an 86% completion percentage, the next highest completion rate out of a primary receiver is Theilen with 73%.
Mahomes is like Gurley, he has increedible teammates giving him the stats, he came into the nfl with Tyreek Hill, the fastest guy in the nfl, travis kelce, the number 1 TE in the previous two years, Sammy Watkins, another incredibly fast stud of an athlete and an offensive line that'll make any RB seem impressive;
I.e. A couple years ago the line made Jamaal Charles the best performing RB, then he got hurt and they made Spencer Ware the highest performing RB then he got hurt and they made Charcandrick West the best RB, then they drafted a rookie Kareem Hunt who in his rookie year got almost 1800 total yards.
Mahomes is a stud but any QB with with a cannon for an arm would be "the best QB" if they had that offense
This is more of a "Why Todd Gurley May Not Win MVP" video. Gurley is one of the elite players in the NFL and would be a deserving MVP. The only thing stopping him from a 2,000+ yard and 25+ TD season is an early playoff clinch that may land him on the bench for the last two weeks. Aside from the numbers, he is everything you need in a back (size, speed, vision, athleticism, hands, scoring machine). The only thing he's missing this year is the 75-yard game-breaker. I don't buy the "scheme is too good" justification as Gurley averaged 1200+ yards and 8 TDs in Fisher's dreadful offense. The only way Todd "shouldn't" win MVP is if someone else is unequivocally better - which just is not the case right now.
Saying the RB back shouldn’t get yards for the o-line creating space is like saying the QB shouldn’t get yards for Reciever RAC yards
>The basic idea is that if a runningback has a huge open hole he shouldn't get credit for those yards
If WR caught the ball less that 70 yds away and was covered with fewer than 3 defenders, than he shouldn't get credit for those yards
If QB completed a pass without extreme pressure, with less than 3 blitzers chasing him downfield and with his main arm, he shouldn't get credit for those yards
So if your O-line is great you can't be MVP🤔 bullshit!!! You for got that football is a team sport ? So as long as they put "i"in (teim) team they can win
Patrick has arguable the best TE in the game. At least a top 10 to top 5 running back and one of the fastest WR in the game. So should he be disqualified? I mean he has a amazing offense so is he not in the MVP conversation? No. He should be in the MVP conversation and I think he is the MVP right now. We rarely see anyone else win the MVP award.It’s always a QB. And we never see a MVP on the defensive side. Only times we have ever seen that was Alan Paige, and Lawrence Taylor.
I understand a good offensive line and scheme would definetly create more for Gurley than he would get elsewhere but theres no reason to penalize him for that. Thats like saying mahomes shouldnt win MVP because he plays for andy reid and can throw to hill, watkins, and kelce while handing off to hunt. Both players still have to execute their roles and this yesr Theyre the two best doing so at their positions
U said if a rb runs 3 yards without getting touched it shouldn’t really count, but the whole idea of a rb position is to no get touched and make the best out of every play.
So u can say if a qb sits in the pocket for more than 5 seconds it shouldn’t count
I get your points and appreciate the analysis. But i feel what you have proven is that Gurley is probably not the most talented RB, not that he doesn't deserve the award. Yes the team is functioning well, and he's taking every opportunity they afford him and he's made consistent contributions to some great wins. Whether the Rams could have done it without him or there are more impressive numbers elsewhere I feel is neither here nor there (besides the point). The guy is executing and he does what his team needs.
Great analysis man. I can’t imagine the time it took to compile those statistics.
First of all, the fact you put so much time and effort into this is awesome. Excellent vid with great points.
Secondly, I get a lot of the points you are making and would agree but I want to insert a few things of my own. I would like to begin by saying being an MVP candidate and an MVP front runner are two different things. I personally have never thought that he was out front of this debate. But I get his top 3 candidate status (or somewhere around there). The most valuable player in football is a very debatable topic. But at a basic level I can see how some people would consider the best player on the best team to be the mvp. The rams are (in my opinion) no worse than the 3rd best team in the league right now. If the rams do secure a bye in the playoffs then I think I can agree with people seeing Gurley as a legitimate candidate
Next I’d like to address the percentage of total offense. I get what you’re saying but comparing him to AP in this regard is a little off to me. Because their skill set is so different. Not only was Peterson the best player on his offense but they clearly couldn’t move the ball without him, so it makes sense for him to be a much larger portion of their percentage of total yards. This leads into the amount of skilled players on Gurleys team. Yes it is true the whole offense of the Rams is loaded. But I don’t think you can hold that against him in the mvp voting. When Peyton Manning had his record breaking season in 2013 he had a lot of talent around him. Same as Tom Brady in 2007. And same as Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes this year. The amount of talent around you being held against you is a bit off putting to me because if that’s the case then I can say that a majority of past MVP winners shouldn’t have won the award. You can give extra credit to someone who has less help around them. But don’t count it against people who do.
Thanks for reading this novel if you did. Great vid again.
So for a running back to win mvp you expect them to get all the yards through broken tackles and juke moves?
You’re right. If the rams played the saints again and the rams didn’t have Gurley and the saints didn’t have Brees, the rams would win this time. That alone shows who’s really the most valuable.
By this analysis, why would you pick the two quarterbacks you have chosen. They have good offensive lines that give them plenty of time to pass, they have good wide receivers who run good routes and get open, and they have good offensive play callers who understand their strengths and the strengths of their teams as a whole. Shouldn't the award, if you penalize Gurley for this reason, go to players like Peterson who outperform poor coaching and play on weak teams?