- [00:00](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 📉 False breakouts can be detrimental to both your trading account and confidence, but Jeff Holden, head of Trader development at SMB, shares techniques to avoid them. - [03:39](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 📈 Breakouts are characterized by energy and momentum buildup, often evolving from trading within a range into a consolidation phase before a breakout. - [05:30](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 💡 Approximately 30 to 40% of breakouts fail, emphasizing the need to identify those prone to failure and adjust risk accordingly. - [06:10](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 📊 Subtle clues like the number of touches on either side of a range can signal potential breakout failures, allowing traders to adjust their risk management. - [09:02](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 🔍 Identifying pressure breaks and analyzing where the buildup occurs prior to a breakout can help differentiate between promising and failing breakouts. - [12:00](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 📝 After identifying a good breakout, monitoring price action in the next five bars is crucial, with indicators like aggressive or passive participation helping gauge its success. - [15:10](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 💼 Traders have three options after a breakout: stand, add to the position if buying is aggressive, or fold if price action indicates failure. - [18:08](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 🔄 Failed breakouts can present trading opportunities if recognized promptly, allowing traders to capitalize on price reversals.
i literally watch this channel and use it to understand where to profit , and i will say i have made profit ever since... there is no other channel like this with so much accuracy
man this is so great thanks jeff. Would have been amazing if you had chart examples of "rangy breaks" and " extended breaks" though. A brief follow up video on this with more examples would be stellar!
i watched many SMB vids, all are very informative, very educational and full of wisdom ! btw, I like Jeff presentation most, he is so good at explaining and breaking things down into very details. Thanks Jeff, Mikey, and all SMB educators
Before I even finish the video I’m pausing it to say that as soon as you start to think about bragging or getting kudos you’re on the way to losing that trade. Mark my word.
Sounds sophisticated and they have the solutions. Just to get you to buy the other lessons. It will get the newbies hooked bc they would really believe the hype. Then they will be out thousands and thousands and forever hooked.
I've learned that support and resistance levels are more of a "zone" that a specific price level. Can be a few dollars wide on high volatile stock or as narrow as 1.00 on lower volatile stocks. All depends on the wicks and bodies in those zones. A resistance level can be between say 190 and 193 on a high volatile stock. The stock pushes up, breaks 190 with higher volume, everyone thinks its a break out, then it hits the top of that zone at 193, rejects, and breaks right back down under 190. Identifying those zones helped me a lot over the years and stopped me from getting into those false break outs. Fomo (fear of missing out) is real, people chase too many stocks when in reality if a stock is really strong it will give u multiple entries. Same when a stock is weak. We don't have to catch the WHOLE move a stock makes, we just have to catch part of the move to be profitable.
As a trend trader I rarely encounter range breakouts, my capital is allocated to other stocks. I break out of resistance levels but I’m trading the moving averages
I agree that many people are considering NVDA as the "Stock of the year." However, I'm curious about which stocks could potentially become the next Nvidia in terms of growth over the next decade. I've allocated $200k for investment, aiming to retire comfortably.
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to Nvidia, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
Facing a similar situation, I sought advice from an CFP. Through portfolio restructuring and diversification with good ETFs, S&P 500 and growth stocks, I've turned my portfolio around from $200k to over $800k in a few years.
She goes by ‘’Vivian Jean Wilhelm’ I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Jeff, You can identify a false breakout in real time by being aware of your expectations, emotions, and other positive reactions including accompaning thoughts. If they are positive, then you know that it is a false breakout. Our expectations and emotions are excellent indicators if treated counterintuitively.
I would somehow agree. I mean, if it's a fake breakout, the effect will be quite devastating. Another is, take quick profit if you do trade the initial breakout, but hold longer, for the restest..
The best and strongest breakouts don’t retest so waiting for a retest could cause you to miss a lot of good trades and then you end up only trading the weakest breakouts. Just watch your position size and have a stop. The entry is one of the least important aspects of trading. Money management and risk management are the key.
@@AJohnson0325 Dangerous advise especially for new traders. That might fuel fomo, with devastating effect for traders who are not good at risk management.
I am very proud to say as well that my portfolio is up approx 72% YTD. Around 6x of that of the spy (around 15% gain) and 1.93x that of the QQQ (around 47% gain).
This is a very under-discussed topic, and so there's limited info out there about it. It would be good to have a part 2 of this, with proper examples of each scenario.
What i really find interesting is that in the beginning of my trading career i have focused a lot on making gains in the trading account. What i have found is that with that came a lot of loosing trades and cutting those loosing trades is like taking aways the breaks on the car. Thanks for the information
Excellent clip Jeff and thanks. Perfect timing for this. Did you see CRBP today? Finished the day with an rvol of 1275. Check out the first 5min candle......insane vol then steady.... Strong catalyst too of course and nice mkt conditions for this trade.....
Could you create a video explaining the correct method for placing stop losses in the breakout technique, particularly when adding positions ? and different type of it
A lot of gems here, but if you aren't as experienced, it's probably hard to catch what he's presenting without much visual guides. But, good gems still...that's how you put together multiple good sources, into your own Trading playbook.
He says you can determine what will happen in the first 5 bars after the breakout. What bars? The one minute bar? The 5 minute bar? He is not specific, only says 5 bars.
So you would start selling after it breaks the last low. Shit i have always tried to sell at the top of the range thats why i always get destroyed. Thank you.
Best f’ing video you all have done! This is true online share training and applaud you for it. Thanks! Been at this for 3-4 yrs and finally getting to breakeven after all the easy money I 24:20 made a few years ago. Knowledge is king, and I appreciate this video more than your others. Just wanted to drop my thoughts! Do more of this! Thanks
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Veronica Hoy.
I am sort of new to all this and my question is how do you profit from a stock that is breaking to the down side? What position do you take? Or did I misunderstand?
newbie question.. ..when the sec rule 203 is put into place, how come I'll see that stock listed as a larger drop in price than 10%....? (having read that the stock is only supposed to drop 10% , then the 201 rule will take kick in. I often see stocks with a much larger than 10% decrease in value for that day..)(i'm looking at one on I/B and it's showing -22.97%) thanks
I feel that the information is more like a story than a real educational material. For example 5 bars rule, minute bar, 5 min bar , 1 day bar what is the bar unit to report to. The video is more about a feeling than a real example. Also would be interesting to give a real example using a real ticker than to discuss in theory.
why does it matter what timeframe. 5 bars could be 30 seconds, 1 minute, daily/weekly bars, does not matter. What does matter is concept. Trading is not mechnaical if this do this, its fluid and context can change at any second, you can follow plan even see volume with breakout but Putin tweets about nuclear weapon and you will get stopped.
Great video, thanks. Hopefully I can get ahold of being profitable before I do that exhaust hose in the car window thing while I’m shit drunk, and eat a handful of Tylenol and Benadryls
All you need to know is what a 180 bullish or bearish bar looks like. Should you enter long and that candle gets taken out by an engulfing red bar. You should get stopped out if you set your stop correctly. That is an INSTANT go short event. 180s have about a 75% follow through. Do not be stubborn or think it will come back. If you were wrong you were wrong. Great traders don't care. That is what the stop is for. They also have no problem going the other way if a certain event happens. A 180 bar is that event.
Thanks for the insights ! In regards to passive price action, is that passive sustained buying on steady volume ? And regarding lethargic price action, is that basically price breaking out but by a small margin and then just going sideways or drifiting up on low volume ?
sorry sir, you said about the next 5 bars, is it on 1 minute bar or 5 minutes bar or 3 minutes bar could u please reveal the secret?? thank you so much
Just like poker. The big hands play themselves and it's hard to misplay them. A lot of the edge is gained with marginal hands, especially knowing when to fold to avoid unnecessary losses in suboptimal scenarios.
By the Time the SELLERS in your example at 20:44, show their in on control you have missed 70% of the short, very little meat left on the bone, be nice to see, how you trade on the 1 min 2 min 3min in relation to the close of the candle and the Volume in relation to the close of the candle. This was very general and obvious for someone that has traded for a while. . . . Meh .......
This video was unintelligible. Next time, please use charts to demonstrate what all the vague adjectives you employ, one after the other, mean on a chart.
I think the fact that Rudy is an adult 8 years later from the time he walked his dogs when he was 17 is why his mom never got charged. No excuse to not charge her but the law considers him an autonomous self-deciding adult despite his trauma sadly enough
SMB's new Scalping Class (free) tinyurl.com/48nvt36f
Reasons2sell Video: ua-cam.com/video/bndpWHlUHCA/v-deo.html
Thxs🎉
I agree with Jeff ....there just🤬 participants
OK so what exactly does passive and aggressive breakout buyng look like? Stock video footage not helping much ... with all due respect
This is gold. Its what ive experienced and subconsciously know but first time hearing it articulated.
Retrospection bias
- [00:00](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 📉 False breakouts can be detrimental to both your trading account and confidence, but Jeff Holden, head of Trader development at SMB, shares techniques to avoid them.
- [03:39](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 📈 Breakouts are characterized by energy and momentum buildup, often evolving from trading within a range into a consolidation phase before a breakout.
- [05:30](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 💡 Approximately 30 to 40% of breakouts fail, emphasizing the need to identify those prone to failure and adjust risk accordingly.
- [06:10](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 📊 Subtle clues like the number of touches on either side of a range can signal potential breakout failures, allowing traders to adjust their risk management.
- [09:02](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 🔍 Identifying pressure breaks and analyzing where the buildup occurs prior to a breakout can help differentiate between promising and failing breakouts.
- [12:00](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 📝 After identifying a good breakout, monitoring price action in the next five bars is crucial, with indicators like aggressive or passive participation helping gauge its success.
- [15:10](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 💼 Traders have three options after a breakout: stand, add to the position if buying is aggressive, or fold if price action indicates failure.
- [18:08](ua-cam.com/video/FdMcPKGtFgA/v-deo.html) 🔄 Failed breakouts can present trading opportunities if recognized promptly, allowing traders to capitalize on price reversals.
i literally watch this channel and use it to understand where to profit , and i will say i have made profit ever since... there is no other
channel like this with so much accuracy
You just described my exact problem: how an expectation causes a freeze as the knife falls. Thank you for this video. I will use the information.
man this is so great thanks jeff. Would have been amazing if you had chart examples of "rangy breaks" and " extended breaks" though. A brief follow up video on this with more examples would be stellar!
Yes! So much talking for so little exchange
i watched many SMB vids, all are very informative, very educational and full of wisdom ! btw, I like Jeff presentation most, he is so good at explaining and breaking things down into very details. Thanks Jeff, Mikey, and all SMB educators
The visual effects really add texture. Thanks for another great vid.
Before I even finish the video I’m pausing it to say that as soon as you start to think about bragging or getting kudos you’re on the way to losing that trade. Mark my word.
😂
Agree
Me today in /NQ
Well said... I made that same mention in similar fashion also.
Its not the bragging itself, its the effect the bragging has on your emotions and discipline.
Im loving the more frequent content! Thank you all for your inspiration💯
Sounds sophisticated and they have the solutions. Just to get you to buy the other lessons. It will get the newbies hooked bc they would really believe the hype. Then they will be out thousands and thousands and forever hooked.
Actually, they have thousands of free videos and resources available. Kind of surprising the amount really.
I've learned that support and resistance levels are more of a "zone" that a specific price level. Can be a few dollars wide on high volatile stock or as narrow as 1.00 on lower volatile stocks. All depends on the wicks and bodies in those zones. A resistance level can be between say 190 and 193 on a high volatile stock. The stock pushes up, breaks 190 with higher volume, everyone thinks its a break out, then it hits the top of that zone at 193, rejects, and breaks right back down under 190. Identifying those zones helped me a lot over the years and stopped me from getting into those false break outs. Fomo (fear of missing out) is real, people chase too many stocks when in reality if a stock is really strong it will give u multiple entries. Same when a stock is weak. We don't have to catch the WHOLE move a stock makes, we just have to catch part of the move to be profitable.
As a trend trader I rarely encounter range breakouts, my capital is allocated to other stocks. I break out of resistance levels but I’m trading the moving averages
Thank you for the continual sharing of great teaching you guys do! Very much appreciated!
I agree that many people are considering NVDA as the "Stock of the year." However, I'm curious about which stocks could potentially become the next Nvidia in terms of growth over the next decade. I've allocated $200k for investment, aiming to retire comfortably.
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to Nvidia, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
Facing a similar situation, I sought advice from an CFP. Through portfolio restructuring and diversification with good ETFs, S&P 500 and growth stocks, I've turned my portfolio around from $200k to over $800k in a few years.
Your CFP must be really good, I hope it's okay to inquire if you're still collaborating with the same CFP and how I can get in touch with them?
She goes by ‘’Vivian Jean Wilhelm’ I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Thank you! I entered her full name into my browser, and her website came out on top. I filled her form and i hope she gets back to me soon.
Thanks Jeff, this is a very relevant topic you are adressing here.
Jeff,
You can identify a false breakout in real time by being aware of your expectations, emotions, and other positive reactions including accompaning thoughts. If they are positive, then you know that it is a false breakout. Our expectations and emotions are excellent indicators if treated counterintuitively.
Haven’t even watched the video but my personal tip is don’t trade the initial breakout. Trade the retest of the level that it broke out from
I would somehow agree. I mean, if it's a fake breakout, the effect will be quite devastating.
Another is, take quick profit if you do trade the initial breakout, but hold longer, for the restest..
The best and strongest breakouts don’t retest so waiting for a retest could cause you to miss a lot of good trades and then you end up only trading the weakest breakouts. Just watch your position size and have a stop. The entry is one of the least important aspects of trading. Money management and risk management are the key.
It depends. The strongest most aggressive breakouts don’t retest.
@@AJohnson0325 Dangerous advise especially for new traders. That might fuel fomo, with devastating effect for traders who are not good at risk management.
This is the simplest thing yet most difficult for a lot
Amazing video. Thanks guys!
Would have loved if you could have shown more examples along with your talk. Thanks.
This is the a very informative playbook in itself. Thanks for offering your experience on these conditions.
NOTHING takes the wind out of your sails like a trade that setup up for a break out then sputters out of the gate.
Thank you very much Jeff. The depth of this video is fantastic!
This speaker is such a good teacher
I am very proud to say as well that my portfolio is up approx 72% YTD. Around 6x of that of the spy (around 15% gain) and 1.93x that of the QQQ (around 47% gain).
This is a very under-discussed topic, and so there's limited info out there about it. It would be good to have a part 2 of this, with proper examples of each scenario.
thank you for a solid lesson. i wish i had a mentor like this closer then new york :(
iirc they have an affiliate branch in austin texas. Its another trading company they partnered with years ago.
im in canada bro...@@Beachtrader0007
It's so valueable, thank SMB so much
Amazing rigorous trading methodology and cool engaging communication! Thank you, Jeff and SMB Capital team, for this great stuff!
I've been burned by false break outs so many times that I wait until the false break out happens and then I take the trade.
Waiting until the whales have eaten?
picking up da scraps that fell off the table@@hubristicmystic
What i really find interesting is that in the beginning of my trading career i have focused a lot on making gains in the trading account. What i have found is that with that came a lot of loosing trades and cutting those loosing trades is like taking aways the breaks on the car. Thanks for the information
Excellent clip Jeff and thanks. Perfect timing for this. Did you see CRBP today? Finished the day with an rvol of 1275. Check out the first 5min candle......insane vol then steady.... Strong catalyst too of course and nice mkt conditions for this trade.....
Could you create a video explaining the correct method for placing stop losses in the breakout technique, particularly when adding positions ? and different type of it
stop loss on a range break will almost always be just outside of the opposite side of the range.
A lot of gems here, but if you aren't as experienced, it's probably hard to catch what he's presenting without much visual guides.
But, good gems still...that's how you put together multiple good sources, into your own Trading playbook.
Great details Jeff! Thanks!
He says you can determine what will happen in the first 5 bars after the breakout. What bars? The one minute bar? The 5 minute bar? He is not specific, only says 5 bars.
This video would have been much better with about 1/10 the number of words and ten times more examples. Too much yacking, not enough demonstrating.
agree
💯 agree
think about the kind of person who picks trading as a career and STILL chooses to go into an office every day in the most congested city in the world
exactly! 🤣
It's marketing, dude
Showing more visual examples would be great
SMB never disappoints. Thank you 🙏.
Wow! Many thanks! Such a valuable lesson!
So you would start selling after it breaks the last low. Shit i have always tried to sell at the top of the range thats why i always get destroyed.
Thank you.
Best f’ing video you all have done! This is true online share training and applaud you for it. Thanks!
Been at this for 3-4 yrs and finally getting to breakeven after all the easy money I 24:20 made a few years ago. Knowledge is king, and I appreciate this video more than your others. Just wanted to drop my thoughts! Do more of this! Thanks
Great video. Right Google got nice break of good level and now retest.
This Video is sooooo helpful, Thank you very much
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Veronica Hoy.
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name.
HOY15 💯💯
I am sort of new to all this and my question is how do you profit from a stock that is breaking to the down side? What position do you take? Or did I misunderstand?
newbie question..
..when the sec rule 203 is put into place, how come I'll see that stock listed as a larger drop in price than 10%....? (having read that the stock is only supposed to drop 10%
, then the 201 rule will take kick in. I often see stocks with a much larger than 10% decrease in value for that day..)(i'm looking at one on I/B and it's showing -22.97%) thanks
one of your most helpful vids tnx
nice information , good explanation. more chart work would do more justice to the video
please give me more example on chart🙏
can you post a video how to sell the news (maybe with bitcoin example - coinbase IPO 14 IV 2021, and now ETF)?
I feel that the information is more like a story than a real educational material. For example 5 bars rule, minute bar, 5 min bar , 1 day bar what is the bar unit to report to. The video is more about a feeling than a real example. Also would be interesting to give a real example using a real ticker than to discuss in theory.
It is a sales pitch to lure you into believing you need to buy their programs to get the gems.
why does it matter what timeframe. 5 bars could be 30 seconds, 1 minute, daily/weekly bars, does not matter. What does matter is concept. Trading is not mechnaical if this do this, its fluid and context can change at any second, you can follow plan even see volume with breakout but Putin tweets about nuclear weapon and you will get stopped.
Great video, thanks. Hopefully I can get ahold of being profitable before I do that exhaust hose in the car window thing while I’m shit drunk, and eat a handful of Tylenol and Benadryls
All you need to know is what a 180 bullish or bearish bar looks like. Should you enter long and that candle gets taken out by an engulfing red bar. You should get stopped out if you set your stop correctly. That is an INSTANT go short event. 180s have about a 75% follow through. Do not be stubborn or think it will come back. If you were wrong you were wrong. Great traders don't care. That is what the stop is for. They also have no problem going the other way if a certain event happens. A 180 bar is that event.
Связка отличная, респект автору!
Very well explained!
In trading, That guy crushed the trade to that guy got crushed in the trade comes very fast.
Связка работает отлично, автор красава!
Thanks for the insights ! In regards to passive price action, is that passive sustained buying on steady volume ? And regarding lethargic price action, is that basically price breaking out but by a small margin and then just going sideways or drifiting up on low volume ?
got the same question! I am only focused on break outs and it is hard sometimes to figure out what is going in that sense
Great video. Thanks for sharing.
I swear most the time ive seen a stock or ETF consoidate after a big move down or up it usually continues the move in the direction that it's going.
What time bar are you talking about, 1 minute, 5 minute, or...?
Огромное спасибо за рабочую информацию.
Should the stop usually go right below the breakout level?
That's what I usually do.....but these brokers have slippage. It's never just cut and dry with setting a stop loss
Did not understand "15 bars higher...7 minutes...". Otherwise, seemed like good info. I will definitely watch for those conditions.
sorry sir, you said about the next 5 bars, is it on 1 minute bar or 5 minutes bar or 3 minutes bar could u please reveal the secret??
thank you so much
He said any TF even the 1 minute
Just like poker. The big hands play themselves and it's hard to misplay them. A lot of the edge is gained with marginal hands, especially knowing when to fold to avoid unnecessary losses in suboptimal scenarios.
узнал много нового про альткоины из твоего обзора я даже не думал, что сейчас есть столько крутых перспективных монеток
By the Time the SELLERS in your example at 20:44, show their in on control you have missed 70% of the short, very little meat left on the bone, be nice to see, how you trade on the 1 min 2 min 3min in relation to the close of the candle and the Volume in relation to the close of the candle. This was very general and obvious for someone that has traded for a while. . . . Meh .......
I'll let him know.
5 bars on which time frame?!
he said any TF
I was just about to type the exact same question.
This video was unintelligible. Next time, please use charts to demonstrate what all the vague adjectives you employ, one after the other, mean on a chart.
So I've committed my whole life to studying the markets and trading. I'm grat at reading price, but my executions need so much work.
Have no idea when I even subscribed to this channel
CAN YOU SHOW NE HOW TO TRADE AT HOME
those examples are some nasty fake outs...man the y can kill your account quickly
Thanks for the lesson SMB
I d Love To Be A Full Time Prop Firm Trader for SMB Capital
I’m reading the book already
Excellent, Thank you
Excellent info.
Amazing video 🎉
Great one!
1st tip : don't ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever tradeon a Break out
Appreciate you all!
13:45 makes sense
Thank you
Isn't that just the stop hunt you see in London and Asian market. And trap and reverse.
why are you talking about the tape when it hasnt existed for years?
interesting point!
Whenever I feel good I sell..when I feel bad I buy.
when i am hungry i short when i had good food i long :D
I think the fact that Rudy is an adult 8 years later from the time he walked his dogs when he was 17 is why his mom never got charged. No excuse to not charge her but the law considers him an autonomous self-deciding adult despite his trauma sadly enough
Ooops sorry wrong video
Mind your own biz
Skip to 13 minutes bypassing all the marketing contents to sell courses .
Trading is just everyday discovery, no matter how professional you are, market will always lecture you.
You wouldnt work for my firm trafing breakout. Breakout are a very retail concept its pretty much the worst strategie
Generally like SMB vids but this one has too much talking and not enough actual SHOWING!
Вот это добрейшее утро;)
5 bars ? isn't too late ?
this is an advertising video, not educational.
At false breakouts reversal is so fast you lose 10% by one candle
A true price channel breakout must be confirmed with a similar channel breakout on RSI (with a new channel margin test). Works “always”
People who trade Cardano. False breaka and liquidity hunts are available no matter how high the time frame😂
If you dont even know what secret means how are you supposed to learn me anything