Ep.110 Real Conversations: Global Chaos Ahead. Buckle Up (with Jim Rickards).
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- Опубліковано 6 вер 2024
- Go to Hedgeye.com to watch the full free webcast: insights.hedge...
Bestselling author and iconoclastic macro strategist Jim Rickards is back by popular demand for another Real Conversation webcast with Keith McCullough.
In addition to his previous appearances on HedgeyeTV and Hedgeye Live, Rickards is a sought-after economic veteran. With 40+ years of experience working in capital markets, his insights have been shared in major publications nationwide.
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President Biden canceled the keystone pipeline his first day in office. Two days later Saudi Arabia raise the price of oil 42%. Within two weeks, groceries, and the price of gas at the pump doubled for me. One month after his first day in office, Putin, invaded Ukraine. They MSM, in unison, blamed inflation on Putin’s invasion, Ukraine. I thought of the words at the end of Hemingway’s book The Sun Also Rises, when one of the characters was discussing how much fun they had. To which one responded, “ It’s pretty to think so”. Putin caused inflation in the United States? It’s pretty to think so.
8:45 Concerns of a potential debt default in China triggered a market sell-off, impacting both digital and traditional stock markets.
Uncertainty surrounding Evergrande's situation fuels global financial fear as the Chinese haven't clarified their stance.
Japanese companies with operations in China, like Hitachi Construction Machinery, saw market value declines.
A potential Evergrande bailout could cause losses for Beijing banks and bondholders, with minimal global impact.
I've worked in construction across Asia, mainly Japan and China, The decision on when to pick an advisor is a very personal one. I take guidance from ‘ Monica Mary Strigle ‘ . She's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
Shorting the Chinese index is a bold move, is this a continuous strategy or just a one time thing and who is this Monica if I may and how did you make such a turn over?
This was a good one! Very few people can keep up with Jim and earn his respect. I believe Keith did an excellent job I like him! New fan of BOTH!
Its because 99% of what Jim says is total BS. I have a broken clock that is more accurate daily than he is...
“F man” what a great interview. Much rewinding to take it in ( I’m slow?) but wow. If nothing else, start at min 45 ish. Jim Ricards continues to deliver. His books are top notch. Thank you Hedge Guy❗️
This is complete BS.
When Rickards speaks, I listen. Jim is so well grounded, much diverse experience, and smart as hell.
But frequently wrong unfortunately.
This particular conversation was a good one! Very few people can keep up with Jim and earn his respect. I believe Keith did an excellent job I like him! New fan of BOTH!
@@ChrisHodges87
can you share … cos, at the moment, we tend to trust them ..
where's my $15,000 gold Jim? Also the post covid great depression? This know-it-all has been consistently wrong for years and somehow his prognostications still have currency. Take it as entertaining hot air only folks. No one knows the future
Brilliant interviewee and brilliant interviewer. A dialogue between two knowledgeable thinkers.
Thank you for this I’ve saved this interview so that I can hear it and learn from it a second time and soak it up like biscuits and gravy
The fed isn't fighting inflation. They need inflation to secure their power.
White supremacy and capitalism from colonial imperialism slave masters systems
True interest (SS, Medicare [those expenditures are only interest on unfunded liabilities] + Defense + Interest) is already 130% of revenue. Normal people call that bankruptcy.
Excellent! Great analysis and Rickard’s style is captivating.
Excellent discussion!
"The fed doesn't lead the economy, it follows it"... great point by Rickards
sure about that?
🤔🤔🤔
Just one thing, chaps (and sorry for the 'nameless account'), but Truflation in the US is currently reading below Fed target at 1.59%. In the UK, where inflation has been consistently higher than in the US, the current Truflation rate of inflation is 3%.
Also, Jim always talks about economic crash and disaster (he said 2023 would be a massive recession, which didn't pan out) yet he somehow only sees one rate cut in July and nothing around the election, which is illogical based on his call for global recession. The correct answer is that it depends based on the severity of the economic downturn. Rate cuts will be de-linked from the inflation control narrative as soon as NFPs turn negative and the US is in recession - i.e. rates will be cut fast and by a lot.
Great interview ,thanks to both of you.
Much as I enjoy seeing Jim Rickards' black swan artwork (at least, that's what it looks like to me... a gaggle of black swan heads) as the backdrop in remote interviews with him, it's nice to see Jim "in the wild", outside the comfort of his lair.
From what I can see the black swans are only circling overhead at the moment. Oh yeah, and taking an occasional dump. LOL
Wow ! Everyone needs to see this !
Keith.....let the man talk!
… he did …
(He can’t sit there mute
fer chrissakes)
He's been saying the same things for a least the past seven years. He predicted $10,000 gold five years ago. Hard to take anything he says seriously anymore.
IKR?
He is a smart guy tho. Maybe his is correct and everybody else is wrong. I’m with you tho, who do you believe? It’s all screwed up.
No one EVER saw the infusion of fake cash to the tune of 35 Trillion. It's so nefarious, no 1 could have guessed
Unfortunately, you are 100% correct
Totally agree. He might be right one day.
James Rickards.... The Smartest Man in any room.
I always question and do the opposite of what Rickards thinks.
LUV Rickards !!
Great interview 🎉
Fantastic discussion. Thanks Keith and Jim.
Super ! Great session.
That was excellent!
And there is a lot of eligible silver in private hands which is not for sale in comex. 😮
Fantastic!
The limits on Modern Monetary Practice are undefined, yet determined ex post by Foreign confidence. Military defeat rather than financial operations may be what breaches Foreign confidence.
For the Rickards critics, focus on the path he describes. Has he missed the timelines he espoused? Yes. But the path he has been talking about has absolutely been happening. How many of us have expected a recession the last couple of years only to see the timeline slip? But most of us can still feel the recession around the corner.
He is always correct...he can't tell the exact time when Pearl Harbor happens.
Excellent podcast and discussion
I don't recall a single time that Rickards had a good thing to say about anything, always preaching doom and chaos. But I still appreciate Keith having him on, because it's good to get a wide spread of opinions.
Do you know anything about the 4th turning?
I nearly failed my class of managerial economics. I feel you lol!
Chatgpt maybe a speed reading plagiarist, but it does more than gather data. It creates. It can now create photo realistic video. This is a brave new world
ChatGPT is text based.
Yes, Jim passed away 20 years ago. But we linked him to the neural network so he's back now. ♥️♥️🐥BOT
So what! It’s going to make most jobs obsolete and frankly not do jack for bottoms lines IMO! Tax revenue which our country runs on will crash! Nothing good comes with this bubble
@@bdek68 Jobs will not be obsolete. ChatGPT is not going to fix your car or cook you a burger. I'm sorry to tell you this, but you're just part of another round of mass hysteria. 🤣
@@willnitschkeif you think burger flippers and car mechanics can drive our economy you are mistaken
Hello Guys,
I can't hold a candle to Jim Rickerts knowledge of markets and his knowledge and use of quantitative analysis. But, my layman's understanding of Wall Streets thirst for rate cuts is that it sparks borrowing by a lot of ordinary people. For example mortgages, small business formation and expansion. In other words, Wall Street needs main street flush with cash so the wealth transfer effect can take place. There aren't enough rich people to strictly sell to each other and pump up balance sheets. They need 'consumption', and most of that profit making consumption takes place at the bottom 95% of society. An obvious simplification of the situation which does not take mid and large cap borrowing into account. But hopefully you get my point. Rich guys need poor guys to milk (let's call it 'the quants' vs. the 'non-quants'). And those poor guys have nothing to milk without borrowing - it's a circle. And when the music stops (recession), poor guys lose the assets they borrowed against, taken back to the same rich guys, and we start the same dance again. It's the American way. If you are in the bottom 90%, you will own nothing and be happy...
The Fed raised rates drastically to cause a recession which would, in turn, lower inflation.
That appears to have been the plan.
However, there has been no recession.
The main reason being that the government has been spending like drunken sailors which has counteracted what the high interest rates were supposed to accomplish
All this has done was kick the can down the road making the impending recession much deeper and the overall inflation at the end of the day much higher
They don't do it to cause recession but to slow growth. The recession is just what they usually end up with.
Perfectly said!!!
Saying chatGPT is a bit novelty, is like saying pong was a novelty and computer games would never amount to much. Except that computer games aren’t about to displace 80% of white collar worker once the newer versions start getting released
It's a novelty because it's garbage. At least computer games provide actual entertainment.
Jim, I love you man. Glad I didn't short Nasdaq in October, But I do love ya man! ( Brexit short pound and buy gold was spot on!)
Two geniuses at work.
Really good information as always from jim. Thank you for this one.
Super great interview guys! Super thx. MMT? From the research I've done it seems the death spiral of MMT would be set off by uncontrolled inflation. Any thoughts?
Inflation is what MMTers say is the break....if it goes up they say to lay off money printing. Stephanie Kelton just did an interview on youtube. I think their theory is correct since any deficit makes the government have negative equity and the private sector gets positive equity. Unlike in the private sector negative government equity doesn't matter because they control the currency. BUT MMT will fail if when there is a better place to put capital ie people stop buying their bonds.
@@ChrisVanSlykeCVS MMT is rich mans Carnival Barking magic elixir ...
@@ChrisVanSlykeCVS thx man, I watched the vid and it cleared up a lot for me 👍
Jim, pls ask us Poles what we think about old and new nazis in Ukraine as we lost 100 k people killed by old Ukrainian Nazis and yet we support Ukraine in their fight against Russia. Get more knowledgeable on he subject BEFORE you make firm statements on this. Because you speak Putin's language in that respect. Be cearefull not to become his useful idiot. Best, Artur - Warsaw, Poland
I’m curious how many people did Russia lose fighting the Nazis? I think a lot of people would be speaking German if not for the Russians.
If I could sit down to dinner with Jim Rickards then I would know I was in Heaven.
This was…..awesome
good interview.
Just another roller coaster ride my beloved ones😮
Please explain how markets can be at respective highs for countries that are in recession? By default GDP is contracting so how can markets earnings hold up to justify ATHs.
Love Jim
Reality , whatever good that does us
Good banter
Hilarious
Excellent report 👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
Winston I want to read your book? Where do you see the markets going? QE and QT are useless and stocks can go to zero. Maybe diversifying 10% towards actual commodities or physical assets really is reasonable? I find my Blackrock index rather flat. Maybe many people are in Vanguard or BR, but the structure of indexes is low fees, but I bet that actually means hidden fees in the end.
Wow !
Stephan Bandera who your esteemed guest claims is still around was assassinated in Munich Germany in 1959.
Always 💯
these guys are rock stars, !!!
Interest rate, exchange rate and capital control. You can control only 2 out of three.
Jim Rickards. please don,t, protect us from this clown
You want a really good stock.HD it was 35 bucks a share in 2009 and is about 300 bucks a share now. Home improvement will continue to grow.
Can't agree with all Rickards says, but he's correct on most IMHO.
He missing to much of the picture. Rickards only focus on the money issues, but wow running a country and figuring what is going on you need to be a generalist.
He's gone for the Benjamin Franklin look......
Boy from US lecturing a Polish man about Bandera…
Interesting. 🇵🇱🇺🇦❤️❤️
Great conversation!
To have Followers means you are a Leader. I Lead No One!❤😂😂😂
Remember when you got cussed at in school by being called a follower
Just warning, I'm in the austrian camp. But K. Rogoff work has been slandered on actual errors and dubious methodology, is it really wise now to build an argument upon that study ? Is this just the 90% cursor moving elsewhere or the whole point falling flat ? (that drama is 10 years old & "didn't read").
James is a great repository of intelligence. .. a treasure..Just sayin.
I have read several of Jim’s books. Love his analysis and calm demeanor. However, as much as I want him to be right, he has been very wrong on several big calls. He has also fronted Stansberry on some very smarmy pitches. Frankly, I am hedging my respect for his words.
Valid points. Out of curiosity, do u think that sometimes Jim and othersq being wrong could be bc of outside manipulation? Often, I feel like situations are changed/influenced for private agendas which, in turn, discount some expert economists. I could be wrong but it was only a thought.
I totally agree eg the start of QE after 2008 GFC.
It's been to long.. Love K & J
Silver linings? My next cola for Social Security pays for both my property tax in Homeowners Insurance. Unlike renters where in their property owners are passing on their rising costs. Americans to take a page out of the playbook of their parents, and grandparents, wearing all the families lived under one roof. If you have a backyard, perhaps have one of Elon Musk’s mobile houses cost in $10,000 put in your backyard. I know one would fit here, but we already have a granny flat at our first house that our daughter owns. And the extra room in the house we live in now.
Very good interview. Except on ai...grossly underestimating in my opinion, but we'll see
But what is the real inflation number? Not the CPI. I hoped they would talk about that.
Employed? Approx 50% pop !....local, city, state, Fed,
military..ETC !
Interviewer interrupted too many times. Let the interviewee finish it.
Not: (at the end)
"Thank you for joining Jim and I."
It's
"Thank you for joining (JIM AND) ME!"
(Google Grammar!)
Really???
@@bdek68 yes, I expect people in these positions to speak properly. It would be one thing if the guy was changing my oil. This schmuck is interviewing one of the world's leading analysts so why is it too much to him with the English language? ...
Suppose Winston Churchill had spoken improperly? Suppose Churchill head confused "subjects" and "objects."
And don't even get me started on "split infinitives." 😏😆
Gold price is higher than ever !!!! And is going up
OK i'm Stupid, who is the 'They' at 36:54?
Yes but don’t you think there is a tipping point of QE where it does cause inflation?. I guess it was mainly the insane stimulus and the supply chain issues due to the pandemic and poor policy.
by design.
CBDC will be by design, surveillance on your accounts, your purchasing habits, what you can say ...
all by design of ratcheting control of your individual freedoms.
More and more folks on govt assistance in order to survive, by design.
If MMT is the answer why have Income taxes from the people?
If MMT is the answer, why have property taxes to finance the school districts?
Most people are sheep.
Inflation may result from QE in theory, but there is a large difference between what happened in 2011 versus what happened in 2020. In the latter case, tons of money was pumped right into the hands of civilians WHILE supply chains were locked up! Then the result led them to say inflation was transitory, which in theory would make sense, but in reality it was enough to keep that ball rolling for a long time. This is different than the QE shenanigans of 2009-2011 which were occurred at a greater distance from the real economy, they weren’t handing out money to people.
Inflation is an increase in money supply by definition so what he claims is total nonsense.
The sky continues to fall
also by minute 6 he is talking complete horseshit about Ukraine. Obviously has read nothing more serious on the subject than other big mouth's Twitter posts. Jesus McCullough why do you keep bringing this dude on??
I’d like to know what Jim’s thought is about the demographic crash that will be crushing U.S. growth.
Prices will come down when the economy crashes. But that means depression, and with no consumers means prices will have to come down or loose too many workers to sustain an economy in the future. After depression and the economy stalls down, money will be worthless and people will start returning to self sufficiency again.
Hard to listen to someone making a serious point with idiots laughing in the background
Helicopter money will Increase velocity right?
Volume a little low on this video for anyone else?
Jim, you are much smarter than me but we didn’t have inflation after 2008 QE because we have still been off shoring labor and costs.
Where can we make our voices heard?
No Plumbing. How about No Taxes!!
I GUESS EVENTUALLY HE WILL BE RIGHT. AMAZING HOW HE FORGETS HOW LOOOONG HE HAS BEEN SAYING ALL OF THIS
Jim -ThaDude- keep’n it real by rock’n the jeans
BDRY has a 3.5% expense ratio. Wow.
Rickards is never right.
Brilliant James, always on point.
All the people who are asleep will get a rude awakening. Chaos is coming.
Recessions isn't a bad thing anymore when central banks policy rule the market, doesn't matter if you call a recession or not, since the CENTRAL BANKS THEMSELVES created that recession to slow down inflation.
My House Rep doesn't understand it !!
I don't have to listen to someone that doesn't know every acronym it isn't why I'm here
JR is a very well read intellectual.. His predictions are a bit of a stretch..
Govt spending requires that the Fed do what it does.
That’s a bad decision
ChatGBT is CNNAI
The rates will drop because of dollar devaluation 🤷♂️🤷♂️