Thank you 🎉We studied this in high school in the 70s..President Jimmy Carter was really trying to make positive changes. My Dad installed solar panels. I graduated in 76 and moved off grid. Raised in SF in the 60-70s was a great childhood. Live More Simply People. 🎉❤🎉
Yup! And Carter was ridiculed for his sweaters and 68F thermostat. And then Reagan had the solar panels Carter installed on the White House removed. He told us then we needed to get off the fossil fuels, and had we done that I probably wouldn't be a doomer today.
@@DanielinLaTuna UA-cam is so weird, I got a notification about your comment because I also mentioned Reagan removing solar panels and how the ridiculed Carter for his sweater and thermostat, but for some reason it is removed.
The most alarming aspect of the present moment is that our government "deciders" have become owned by corporate interests. Big Money's primary focus is on quarterly profits and "shareholder value" - not climatology. In fact, climate mitigation is very often inimical to corporate interests. And THAT is scary, particularly when you consider the corporate "ownership" of our decision makers.
One thing that concerns me is that people are already migrating because of climate change and this is only going to increase in the coming years and we are wholly unprepared to deal with that fact.
@@topeka088 From the equatorial regions of Africa, parts the Middle East, and Central/South America migrating to the global North. The climate change aspect is the summer heat, increased storms, and changes to the growing season all of which are also increasing famine in many of these regions and especially in Africa. Some people would argue that there is political unrest, which is also a problem, but that's largely always been a problem in these areas and we didn't see the levels of migration we've seen over the past decade due to previous wars and authoritarian governments.
The U.S. military and its many scientific advisors, decades ago, have foreseen climate change as a major national security issue. Due to regional water & food shortages; human migration; etc leading to political instability and wars. The Pentagon made public statements on this years ago.
@DennisMoore664 I would respectfully disagree with you on that. Yes, there is migration from the Sahel and elsewhere to Europe, but I would ascribe that to unrest and warfare. Much of which is initiated and organized by Russia for the express purpose of putting strain on Europe and encouraging the rise of ultra-nationalism. And it seems to be working. Now, if you would like to present some climate data showing how the climate has changed there, I'm all ears. But you can't look at the result - migration - and wave your hands and blame climate change.
I live NW of Tallahassee, FL. Our plant hardiness zone just changed from 8b to 9a. When Hurricane Michael came through in 2018 spun up in less than 3 days. It hit Mexico Beach and Panama City as a cat 5. I live in 2 miles from the FL-GA line about 30 miles from Tallahassee and 85 miles from Panama City. When the storm came across winds were still 135 mph. I got out of my camper and stayed with my friend in Bainbridge, GA in a concrete block house. The fence on one side of the yard blew away, winds were coming from behind the house and donning our fancy rain gear (black plastic bag) sat on the front porch and watched a tornado go through on the next road over. Windows in the dining room blew out. It took 11 days to get power back on my property and 7 for her home in Bainbridge. I grew up with hurricanes for most of my life, it wasn't overwhelming, but starting with Hurricane Andrew, Camille, Katrina, Hugo, Ivan, Harvey, Michael things kept stronger and causing more damage. I don't know why more condos are still being built like there is no tomorrow. Extinctions are occurring at a much faster rate. I used to have meadowlarks, bobwhites, shrikes, certain sparrows, songbirds, woodpeckers. I'm 73, lived 20 yrs in Cape Canaveral, 30 yrs in Gainesville, and 22 yrs in Quincy and can see the changes. Here in Quincy, the IFAS (agriculture) stations Honeybelles have been living at the campus for well over 20 yrs when they shouldn't thrive here. I'm a scuba diver over 50 yrs. The corals in the Keys are dying. This summer I was visiting my brother in Sarasota. We went to the beach and I have never been in the water at that temperature. It was hot water. That means our fisheries will be wiped out, all of our seafood are compromised. Last summer came early last year - our average summer temps have been 91 for June and July, but last year we had temps from May to Sept we had more temps over 100 with many days up to 108. We had almost no rain until about late October we had a major drought.
So we are suppose to accept some narrow sample of anecdotal evidence as proof of what? 4.5 BILLION years of climate and you want to extrpolate your few decades non-scientific observation as an undeniable proof of a man-made trend? All of North America was once tropical and well it's been artic like too. Climate change is real and inevitable. A stable climate is impossible. BUT anthropogenic global warming is not fact.
And maybe, I can only pray, people will seriously rethink having children in these end times. It’s a tabu subject. But the most obvious elephant in the room.
What's missing is an in depth discussion of worst case leading edge climate models, which themselves are always too optimistic because they do not adequately factor in positive feedback effects of runaway heat (e.g. smoke, methane, etc). The next 10, 20, 30 years are going to push large parts of the planet to the very edge of endurance & survivability. Canadian fires were catastrophic last year; they could easily get MUCH worse. Plan accordingly.
Les dernières études de James Hansen et son équipe d'universitaires parlent très bien de cela. C'est bien pire que "prévu". Même si Hansen et d'autres avaient annoncé cela depuis longtemps.
Will people sacrifice one moment away from their many addictions to organize and do anything like changing the system much less their lifestyles? How many? Only Americans? Can we coordinate across cultures and nation states? They can use modern monetary theory to fund wars but not to change coded, neoliberal fossil capitalism.
Surprised that little mention was made about our dwindling natural resources. We are in a crisis of overshoot. We need to consume less of almost everything. Any sort of green transition is going to run up against the limited quantities of cheap energy fairly quickly. Without cheap energy, mining of copper and drilling for oil and gas will make it so expensive that it’s virtually inaccessible. I don’t know why this isn’t being discussed more widely. Check out William Rees and his work on ‘overshoot’.
Definitely need more of these kinds for talks. Thank you Tim for this extremely important topic. It's time to wake-up people. Facts are facts... we are killing this beautiful planet and everything on it. ☮💟
Excellent! I can replace one existential crisis with another! Unfortunately, this is yet another topic that people are looking at through a political lens rather than understanding the facts.. edit: great discussion! Would love to see more of it
Don't worry, during these long winter nights, there's plenty of time to lose sleep on any number of existential crisis. The trick is to balance those anxieties and only dediate one to two hours on each. P.S. Yes, this sounds very flip, but I've been going through this for about six years or more by now.
Crap, I say! At this stage of my life, getting in and our of Costco is enough of an existential crisis. I get the sweats just thinking about having to go there!
Do you understand what it takes to make a lithium battery? Do you know what is involved in making an EV battery? Going green truly is not being green at all. All it does is create more man-made environmental disasters.
@@Swampfox953 Lies and FUD. Didn't you watch the video? The amount of mining needed for clean tech is 1% of the amount of mining needed for fossil fuels. Battery metals are mined once, then can be recycled and used multiple times. Fossil fuels are burned. Be smart.
@@Swampfox953 If you are correct, then we have more work to do, not less! So we better start sooner, not later! To some degree certainly, this early green technology is an improvement over the old tarpit technology. It might not get us all the way there. So, if we need more and better green technology, how do you propose figuring it out? Leave it to the marketplace? That's how we ended up where we're at. We need some directed investment, more research and development, more lifestyles that aren't so energy hungry. What are your ideas? You seem to know something about what's green and what's not.
Outstanding interview. Thank you. I read the science and have listened to many talks by scientists in the field. David Wallace-Wells aligns with the consensus as I have come to appreciate it -- but here has communicated where we are and what needs to be done in much more compelling way.
I wish this had more views. I feel like people are not taking actions that they could take, not paying attention, not doing enough. I feel like folks care less than they did even 10 years ago/are more distracted with everyday life and buying crap.
Excellent excellent excellent ! We are in the midst of accelerating climate and ecological collapse as David correctly points out, the difficulty is that we are also triggering tipping points which may in and of themselves continue accelerating Global Heating even as we humans reduce our greenhouse gases and fossil fuel emissions.
Ecological overshoot is the issue, climate change is a symptom. We are not able to shift the mindset to control our overshoot and the bottleneck coming in the next few decades will be hellish.
@@meghan42 Obviously you weren't alive in the seventies because all I'm hearing is the same old BS that I heard back then except back then it was called global warming and we were trying to save the whales and stop strip mining. Now strip mining is okay and killing off the whales is no big deal either. Wind generators are killing thousands of birds every year including our national bird. The beautiful and proud bald eagle but Lord help you if you kill one and get caught. That's over a 10,000 fine and jail time.
@@Swampfox953 I understand the science so I don't BELIEVE it, I know it. I accept it. The ability to end the heating has passed from our hands..... nature and physics is now driving the bus.
48:05 The Gen Zs in my life are certainly making decisions based on the current future outlook. The main one being that they aren’t going to have children. My own two children too. My firstborn is an absolute no on kids. My second born (19) has talked about being a dad since he was 3 years old. He has gone from wanting bio kids, to wanting to adopt kids, to “I’m not sure.” He’s studying environmental engineering. Several nephews have said no to having kids. One of them broke up with his girlfriend because she decided she might want kids someday. Another one is getting married this year. They’re not having kids unless things seem okay in 10 years.
I wouldn't have any, looking at the science, and knowing there to be a far less rosy view on renewables, than was presented here. Look further. Google it. Read the book "Bright Green Lies", as one example. Most of all, delve more deeply into what many scientists are now admitting....that this is much worse than expected allready, and portends to accelerate exponentially. We are in "overshoot" to the earths capacity, and trying to maintain business as usual, through renewables is not realistic. All of us need to participate in very massive conservation measures, but we're not going to do it. We're too addicted to following the line of least resistance....excessive use of fossil fuels.
I have the same experience w’my 3 Millennial-age sons - oldest married but they won’t have kids - youngest (34), single, but doesn’t want kids - middle one undecided.
Speaking as a childless millennial, it's not JUST climate change and other environmental issues affecting this decision, and I don't think my peers have been entirely rational. We've been swayed by a sort of marketing campaign. Especially one former president and his friends and following have been a constant, years-long announcement that human beings are utterly disgusting and everyone and everything is immutably crazy and awful. Of course that's wrong but most people are easily influenced on matters like hope and self-esteem and it's been inescapable. Most of my friends have been swayed to the point of ambivalence as to whether our species should exist at all. Shudder that circus, let normal humanity shine bright in our news cycles, bam you'll have grandkids within the year.
We need to stop eating animals, stop subsidizing animal agriculture, assist animals farmers to transition to other vocations, and rewild much of the land. People will be healthier (many studies back this up), animals will not be born into suffering and slaughter, and greenhouse gas greatly reduced. But people are stubborn and don't want to change.
I studied gw in 1971 in my Physics and Natural Resources. Now called cc it was swept under the rug for 53 years. Wealth comes from oil. Production comes from oil. Motion comes from oil. Denial is not a solution. Prosperity comes from oil.
This was a great discussion. Please please PLEASE provide more content on the climate issue - it is appallingly absent from most political debates, despite, as David Wallace-Wells note, the recognition that we are in deep shit. Complacency is real - and content like this can only help. A few other topics I'd love to see you consider (sorry, but you did ask): Gun control. I hear a lot about this from a leftist perspective - I'd like to hear what you'd bring to it. As a mom who just put her kid in a public school for the first time, my biggest concern is that she'd be shot at school. Or at the movies, the mall, grocery shopping, at a concert, or just by walking on the wrong street at the wrong time. But mostly at school. Data Privacy - we are constantly stalked on-line. Why does no one seem to care? Health Insurance - I'd love to hear a nuanced comparison of Trump and Biden on how they've approached health insurance. It's such a complicated problem, and there are so many facets to it. The price of prescriptions, why we don't cover eye, ear, and dental care in basic insurance plans, what would it take to force insurance companies to lower plan prices, etc. Would lower prescription prices lower plans for instance? It's a huge topic, but so important given that in many families like mine, insurance and medical costs is our biggest expense. White, Christian Nationalism - terrifying and seemingly quite pervasive Birth Control - my in-laws think I'm crazy for being concerned that access to this would potentially be an issue in a second Trump presidency, but it seems a very real possibility if certain supreme court justices and state governments have anything to say about it. Equal pay for Equal work - why is there not more consternation by American women that we have yet to pass the ERA? How could Republicans refuse to pass the Lily Ledbetter Act? What's the deal? Does the GOP just want women to work for less money and like it? Why are they happy for single mothers to struggle to get by if they are not in a two person family? What is the deal with outlawing family planning, but then not funding social programming to help women and and parents to support their families. Why is there such an anti-woman bias in the GOP? Gay and trans rights in different states: I recently visited a friend who was completely incensed that "Michigan just passed a law that would put you in jail for ten years for misgendering a trans person." She had picked this up from online misinformation, but yet she couldn't believe that there are families who are banned from seeking treatment for their kids because of the state they live in. Parental rights/trans kids playing sports - this issue seems completely overblown to me given the size of the problem. I'd love to know more about it since it's being used as a stalking horse to whip up controversy and increase animosity. Vaccine politics - why are vaccines such a problem? Totally bizarre to me. Infrastructure - what's the difference between the Biden and Trump administrations? I know the IRA is great, but I don't have a clue beyond the one bridge what it's funded. I'd like to have a bigger picture. Also, what did Trump do about infrastructure other than infrastructure week? I'm sure I have a few more, but this seems like a good start. Tim, I really appreciate the fact that you are providing content on significant issues that are currently receiving significantly less attention by the media in favor of focusing on the horse race ad nauseum. As a thoughtful leftist listener (currently flirting with the idea of membership even!), I have found the discussions at the Bulwark thought provoking and nuanced. Not going to lie, I can't quite understand your past decision to support a GOP that seems to be fine with sowing division in pursuit of power, but I very much appreciate your perspective as a reformed reformer and I look forward to seeing what you do in the future. It is my hope for the country that your site will provide a model for civil discourse for all sides. I wish you and Bulwark crew much success.
Thank you for bringing this urgent conversation up. True, innovation will help mitigate the amount of premature deaths and suffering due to fossil fuel emissions. But a huge gap in these discussions is how our lifestyle choices can make as much of an impact. Drive less, walk more. Eat less meat or even none. Refrain from pushing the “buy now” button. We are bypassing our own responsibility and accountability causing the problem. What are you doing to be part of the solution? What can you change in your life to reduce your carbon consumption?
The plastics and fossil fuel industries have done a great job pushing the narrative that personal actions are more important than government and industry - which unfortunately has the result of letting them off the hook. Governmental regulations can do far more than individuals alone - in far less time. The most meaningful action a person can take is to VOTE for politicians who will prioritize climate change as part of their agenda. Unfortunately, that means the majority of the current GOP needs to be voted out to get meaningful action. All discussions of this issue should prioritize this message, and the corollary that news media needs to hold politicians accountable for what they do, and do NOT do, to improve our climate and increase our resiliency.
I'm so glad to see that it's not just a single solid block of ALL conservatives that have their head in their head in the sand. I know where a minority guys but we got to do what we can
If you want some sobering science about climate change look for Nate Hagens (The Great Simplification) and Canadian prof William E. Rees. They’ll get you thinking/worrying.
Rees is great. Guy McPherson explains the angle of human (mammal) habitat quite well. But maybe it will not be over, until we as a species have exploited the last tree, indeed the bottoms of the oceans and the soils of Antarctica. And then we would do Mars if we still can!
Great content. Two things...first is we are not at 1.2 degrees, but 1.47 at the end of 2023. 1.5 is this year. The other is the fact that ocean temps are rising so fast that there is a scientific case for people to be extinct by 2100.
You sound interested in science! Check out Natalia Shakhova's latest on the ESAS methane - releasing into the atmosphere at a rate more than all the arctic land permafrost methane. There's 1200 gigatons of pressurized methane and just 50 gigatons as an "abrupt eruption" will double the atmospheric temperature. Yet even the IPCC dismisses the world's largest ocean shelf pressurized methane based on bad models. hilarious.
Which climate models are you looking at. I am currently looking a the Queensland model as well as several from India and these are clearly showing 1.87965 cooling by June 2028.
@@Jc-ms5vv Carl Sagan along with the settled scientists of his bygone era would say we could cool the planet's atmosphere overnight simply by using a sustainable amount of atomic energy in the form of 10,000 fission/fusion devices detonated in the atmosphere. This would cause a nuclear winter, according to concerned climate scientists. When I was going to government schools way back in the 1970s, the teachers told us settled science said we were without doubt heading into another Ice Age. Media were all on board with the coming of catastrophic climate cooling. At the time, we were thinking we could melt the Earth's ice caps with powdered coal and that would save us. I believed the science then, and I still believe it now.
Last year the late winter early spring was so wet and muddy, the crew were dragging their dudes in the mud. The calves would get a belly of mud before they got to the milk. Then we hit a drought that was so bad the farmers were feeding hay to their cattle starting May when they would normally not start feeding hay until November or December. And the hay fields were not growing in a way to replace all the hay used! So the farmers are just getting farther behind! Maybe this will be a once in awhile event, but I suspect not.
Our plan from the 80s to the 00s was. Dig the irrigation ponds deeper. Sink 800 foot wells to replenish the ponds. And lay irrigation pipes under roads so we could easily move water from one source to another or field if need be. As our knowledge and history always indicated dry and drought summers... Since the 00s. We have had no shortage of water. So much water that we have had planting seasons cut short by the mud, plants not even germinating because of water. Fields washing out in a thunderstorm. Move the earth back and sow again only to have it washed out 2 weeks later. No ground frost and rampant root eating fungus. Our river raising so fast farmers couldn't get equipment out of fields. And the river stayed high. Ending the season short. Family out west, not able to move their crops down a swollen Mississippi. Climate change is existential to farmers
Show some proof not just talk. I am very skeptical about this and see no data to back it up. There are many experts who disagree about a CRISIS being real.
Capitalism can efficiently drive a lot of positive outcomes, but it has blind spots, and it can't address things it can't see. Things like pollution and climate change are effectively invisible to capitalism because the negative outcome affects society overall, not just the buyers and sellers making decisions at the points of sale. A cap-and-trade system, like Tim mentioned, or a carbon tax would be a simple way to make the problem visible to capitalism by shifting the cost to activities that generate pollution. Capitalism has some other limitations, which can be addressed with thoughtful policy/regulations and government programs. We don't have to throw out capitalism, but we need be willing to take some additional steps for an optimal result.
Earth is not doomed but mankind depends on a very narrow set of circumstances that allows life to survive. Unfortunately, it is easy to tip those very favorable conditions to be changed, as the history, of Earth, has shown us.
So how do you plan on controlling all the volcanoes that are erupting around the world and changing our climate? How are you get to keep the underwater volcanoes from warming up the oceans? To make sure that the oceans have a balanced salinity.
@@Swampfox953 I do not have a plan. Climate change or a meteor will change the living conditions of Earth without mab lifting a hand. The population,, of Earth has been wiped out many times, in the past. I assume the cycle will be repeated again.
@@mrrecluse7002 So are you practicing your pro nouns? Climate change is a hoax and you either fall for that scam or don't. You either believe it is real or you don't. I've already stated where I stand on this subject.
What is inevitable….in 50 years or so, the less than one billion humans left alive, will be living like our ancestors did in the early 1800s with comparable levels of technology. Everything that ran on cheap oil will be unusable.
David, you're wrong on Gen Z's fears. I have 2 teens - they and their friends are mosdef fearful about what the future holds. Their fear not yet seen in markets bc they aren't buyers/drivers of economy yet. My kids don't want to drive across town for a fun op. They ask me to turn down the thermostat in CO in winter. They pester me to buy an EV. They ask for vegitarian meals cuz they've read about ag polution. They are really scared... BUT their fear will drive more righteous decisions as they enter their buying years.
I live in the Phoenix metro area and last summer was brutal. I was lucky and did not experience a power outage. Most people I know took steps to reduce the load on the grid. I have heavy insulation materials on my windows. I set my thermostat to 84 degrees and my AC still kicked on more than I would like. I have battery operated fans for emergency use. I’m planning on getting a small generator before this summer because I expect it to be worse than last summer. I hang dry my clothes. I don’t use my oven. I am seeing a huge increase of EV’s on the streets. Tempe is planting native trees. Phoenix is treating some asphalt streets to mediate the heat that accumulates. We’re facing drought conditions and the eventual reduction of water from the Colorado River. Sadly, not enough of the residents are taking this seriously and making changes.
I'm glad to hear that Phoenix is taking steps to improve things, but what makes people think that living in a desert is a long term workable proposition?
@latriciaagle280 I just watched this video from Active Towns on Tempe's Culdesac project that not only is pedestrian and bicycle focused (with a Metro stop next door), but also cools temperatures 10-15 F with the design of their walkways and buildings to create more shade and reduce heat island effects. ua-cam.com/video/Ognw7NSzuMU/v-deo.html
@@stewarer Thanks for sharing. I live in Tempe and we tend to be ahead of the surrounding municipalities when it comes to climate change and sustainability. I’m semi-retired and can walk to the store, library or ride a scooter to work when the weather is nice. I can ride the Orbit commuter bus to downtown or other locations.
I think the question is: can people adapt quickly enough. The changes we are experiencing now are happening in an exponential fashion, not a linear fashion. People think that they can adapt as long as the rate of change remains about the same. But the rate of change is not linear; it is exponential. There are also positive feedback loops (such as when we lose a lot of sea ice) that will increase global temperatures at a much faster rate of speed. This was a good discussion but there is much more to the climate issue and it would be worth further programs. It is completely rational for Gen Z to be concerned. We need to assist them with future planning, including with mental health issues stemming from a rapidly changing climate and the extinction of so many plants and animals. It is heartbreaking.
My sentiment exactly! A few years ago everyone was kicking the effects of global warming to 2100. Just a few days ago I read NYC and much of the Jersey Shore will be underwater by 2060. With Antarctica melting away fast I don't know whether to believe this or not! The truth is, nobody really knows. We are in totally unchartered territory!
Historians such as Margaret Lavinia Anderson have often contemplated just why the number of births remained stagnant through long periods of history, barring plagues, wars and famine. The best answer she could find was not more relaxed attitudes on sex, but on how happy/hopeful people were for their future. We are seeing plenty of that today. Marriages, sexual unions, births, people just hooking up, they are way down in many places, especially Japan, China, Bangladesh and Korea, but here as well. Yes, it could be millions and millions of people making individual financial decisions about their future, it could also be global depression which could be in part, a reaction to just what the future of the planet holds in store.
I’m a bit disappointed that the issue of extinctions was not mentioned - both flora and fauna - Maybe next time…. Otherwise an excellent and much-needed discussion. Thank you both.
I agree as gardener, I see many plants stuggle through the summer. I garden for insects so much of my garden is natives. I also suspect water rationing will happen before I die. It will be interesting when climate change affects our food supply in a big way.
I'm not disappointed. I'm outright pi**ed off. It's because they think and talk about humans only, all the time. It's always human death, human economy, human human human 24/7. When they ask "Is the earth doomed?" or say "Uninhabitable earth" or "the planet is in trouble", what they actually mean is "humans are doomed", "earth is uninhabitable by humans" and "humanity is in trouble". Humans are the single most important thing in their world, just like nothing else has value, and the universe would collapse as soon as humans are gone. Ugh.
And no technology can change that. This is irreversible and horrifying. Global Warming is just ONE of the environmental issues. Just one of the SYMPTOMS. Fixing it won’t fix all the rest. Won’t bring back the thousands of species that have gone extinct at an unseen rate in the past decades. This is an invisible Global Biological collapse
43:45 re: degrowth Interesting to hear David's comments so negative on this rapidly rising global trend. - My understanding is that degrowth is not about simply "pulling the rug" from beneath any economy, nor transitioning immediately and entirely off fossil fuels to the point of economic crash, but rather transitioning an economy (over time, but necessarily as quickly as possible) with regard to its values. This means changes not merely in terms of energy production, but also in terms of energy use, eg. instead of advertising international airplane-based tourism, promote local and less energy-dependant internal or domestic tourism, or even the great staycation. People can still travel, but airplane flight and other highly polluting activities need to NOT be subsidised and DO need to be more expensive to reflect the impacts of the greenhouse gas pollution they create, and advertising it certainly needs to end. - Anyway, it'd be great to either have David back to speak in more depth about degrowth in particular, perhaps in relation to the 1972 Limits to Growth, or have someone else who specialises in the topic.
How alarmed should we be and how closely we should look at the danger are great questions if you're in 3rd grade. Were burying ourselves in garbage that is going to turn the oceans into acid. This isn't about GDP, needing air conditioning or letting government save us.
There are areas on Florida that flood on a clear day. In NYC, every time it rains, and sometimes without rain we get coastal flooding warnings. People who have beach side housing on Long Island are having to put their houses up on stilts, not “just in case” but because otherwise their houses flood at least a couple times a year. Climate change is here and already affecting us, but in some cases it’s a boiling frog issue. I moved away from Washington State because fire season was horrible because without the air to move the smoke out, Seattle and all the areas around would look like those couple of days NYC experienced for a month or two. But people just go about and ignore how it wasn’t like that every year not that long ago. And as a farmer, the climate really messes with growing. There are areas in the South they can’t grow tomatoes in the summer anymore because it’s too hot. (Tomatoes, peppers, and a bunch of other crops stop producing above a certain temperature.) Even as far north as I am, I have to grow my tomatoes under shade cloth at the height of summer to keep them producing. And in another 10 years or so we might be able to start growing citrus in NYC all year outside. So yea….
Good examples of impact. Thanks. I think we're seeing wine grape production expand geographically, too. Some years back I'd heard about someone in, I think, Oregon starting an olive grove thinking that by the time the trees mature enough to start fruiting the weather patterns will have changed sufficiently to support long term production. The unpredictability of climate patterns, soil conditions, etc., complicate the picture but shifts in crop viability is a given. Good luck to you.
I'm from wisconsin. I saw UA-cam video that somebody did about the climate change in Wisconsin and how it's affecting the farms and the land. All the comments were so negative. Basically said climate change is a cycle. He's exaggerating. It's not a problem. Personally, I saw somebody mowing their lawn in December. Not sure why but it was 50 degrees and of course no snow. That's not normal in Wisconsin in middle of December ( we do have snow now but heard 2 weeks temp forcast 50 degrees)
@@merricat3025 NYC literally JUST broke our snow drought. We went 701 days without an inch of snow in a single day at Central Park. Which is just... wtf. The previous record was 383 days, and the average is about 2' a year. Soooo weird. And, weirdly, this makes our extreme colds colder. Last year we went negative several times which the area is not known for. The unpredictability is frankly harder to deal with because it makes planning for things that can take 100+ days to grow a real challenge.
@@merricat3025 I too heard those that argue it's all a cycle. Although it is a cycle, there is so little appreciation of the time scales involved. Civilization as we know it is measured in mere thousands of years. The natural big climate cycles operate over tens, hundreds and thousands of millennia. We are causing big climate change in mere decades. Is it an existential threat? if one is refering to civilization as we know it, you bet it is! If we're talking about human extinction, that may be a side effect as we may precipitate a nuclear war which may precipitate a pandemic that does the job. But how brutal will be the suffering even without a nuclear war? There are things to worry about for sure!
Thank you for “giving us a break” from the clown show! This guy needs to be on a rolling tape in our heads. Because we are all too complacent, expecting some miracle. But, don’t look up!
Well, sure. The show must go on, and evolution will pick up the pieces. But for one single species to be fully responsible for the mass extiinction of millions of others does not amount to a consolation prize for the planet, and only great shame for us. Our wreckage may turn out to be so great, that biodiversity may never return to its former glory. Who knows?
Both can be true. And both ARE true. Oceans are in advanced die off and mass extinction of many insects imperative to our ecosystems survival. And many more extinction taking place as we speak. Life on earth is interdependent. If you mean there will still be a big lifeless rock floating through space like mars, after all extinction takes place, then yes, “The planet is not in trouble.”😢
@@mrrecluse7002 Your conclusions may be true but I don't think so. In a million years evolution will restore the biodiversity we have destroyed. But like you say, who knows.
@@drawyrral Evolutionary timescales are so long, it could take 10 million, which is a quickey, in geological time. The Permian took 10 million, but the element of surprise is not to be underestimated.
The title is wrong. The earth is NOT doomed, it's the humans that are doomed. The earth has been here for millions of years and will be just fine, especially after modern civilization, and the damage it has brought, is massively curtailed , one way or another.
This take really lacks self-awareness. We, the people having this conversation, are humans. If all humans die, the fact that other life will survive is just a pleasant abstraction.
That can't be assumed. This jewel of the solar system may never return to the rich biodiversity it has been endowed with, in our wake. I don't for a moment underestimate the damage we are capable of, even to the entire web of life.
Another great podcast as always Tim & such an important topic concerning Climate Change with your very knowledgeable guest David Wallace-Wells. This is the first podcast, no actually the second podcast that I’ve heard discussing this very important topic of Climate Change; the only other one that I can think of was with Dr. John McDougall, he would be another great guest for you to have on, he was actually greatly affected by climate change; one of the worst forest fires ever in California & he lost everything in his medical practice due to that fire & he has since relocated to another area of California I believe; he also has his own podcast. Would like to hear more podcasts on this very important topic, a really nice change from everything TRUMP related. Always enjoy your podcasts Tim. Keep up the good work!!! ❤ ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️👍🤗🇨🇦
Excellent insight and information as usual. I know I am off topic, but let me just reinforce that the grid can not supply all the future electricity energy because the grid itself is insanely expensive to expand. The future is not generation and grid transmission of electricity to the millions and millions of ends of the grid. The future is generation and storage at the millions and millions of ends of the grid. Most vehicles are parked 23hrs every day at a building, and so if EV and V2G or V2X and selfplug-in, then local grids will balance out local storage. Distant renewables and nuclear will fail economically because of their grid dependence. 5 times more electricity and grid capacity in a no fossil fueled future. Consumers will have the technology to go offgrid even in the suburbs. 66% of electricity bills are grid costs. Those left on the grid will be faced with fixed grid costs in their grid electricity bills. The grid may be an abandoned asset.
Marine ecologist here. Watched the mass coral bleaching event in the keys this year. It is beyond frustrating that most of the people I interact with outside of work have no idea the scale of the problems. And if I try to speak to it any part of it I’m a doomer. My guess is we will develop the technologies to avoid major catastrophes but never the will to deploy them in a meaningful way. It really sucks the joy out of my work and the purpose out of my life. I think I need therapy.
As a marine ecologist you should fully understand that the Earth has cycles. That the earth's climate has ebb and flow. It's happened before it'll happen again.
@@Swampfox953Barring some galactic catastrophe, planet Earth will likely go on. But whether or not it will be livable for humans is another question. People are dying, species are going needlessly extinct. Please start caring. You live here, too.
Nate Hagens is in denial as even Paul Beckwith. Try Jim Massa Science Talks - he's a Ph.D. Oceanographer living in Alaska, focused on global warming science. He says we're doomed and he actually takes GEE McFearSun seriously unlike Paul Beckwith and Nate Hagens.
Way too little, way too late. Even the IPCC has admitted in the last two or three years that it is now irreversible. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution around 1750 we are now above 2° C. That figure by the way, was not based on science, an economist came up with that figure. We are now into "abrupt change" and now well into the sixth mass great extinction. The current rate of change it is estimated to be about 10,000 times faster, any species can adapt to. There are several things, including a sudden release of methane from the Siberian shelf, which can cause over a 1° C temperature rise in a matter of weeks or months. If that happens, global food crops will fail. They are deeply stressed as it is, and let us not forget lack of potable water for many. Global food crops fail billions will starve. You don't have to be particularly imaginative to guess the response of the major governments and militaries to such an event.... It's been quite the party, and we will say we can't afford the bill, but the piper will be paid.
Wallace-Wells' presentation once again brings home the fact that innumeracy is at the heart of climate denialism. Opinion makers need to combat innumeracy at every term by putting numbers on, for example, the amount of land burned by wildfire over the years and the relative prices of fossil fuel and clean energy.
Human beings, for some reason, are really bad at assessing ranges of risk. Especially in the media, reporters want to know what IS going to happen, not what MIGHT happen. Wallace-Wells may have unduly frightened young people, who are even worse at weighing risk than old men like me, by focusing on the worst case. But what really needs to be driven home is that it's entirely in our hands, and "our" means all of us. We all need to put pressure on our political leaders to embrace smart solutions without wimping out due to their personal careerism desires.
Agree. But Wallace wells is not talking worst case. If you want that look at William Rees or even Guy McPherson. Best not to. The trouble with politicians is that their strings are pulled by lobbyists.
True, the lobbyists get traction with lawmakers because their clients donate money to the politicians' campaigns to do . . . what? Produce TV and web ads that persuade voters to vote for them. In the end, it's all about the voters. So if the voters go directly to the lawmakers and say "here is what matters to us, here is what we want from you," that also matters. A lot, according to what we hear again and again from their staffers. The problem is that most voters don't bother because they don't know how much potential power they have.@@chain8847
Single used vehicles are not energy efficient no matter the source. Public transit, and high speed trains are what should be massively expanded. In rural areas, I’d be inclined to accommodate some fossil fuel vehicles for the obvious reasons.
Single used vehicles are not energy efficient no matter the source. Public transit, and high speed trains are what should be massively expanded. In rural areas, I’d be inclined to accommodate some fossil fuel vehicles for the obvious reasons.
well, since the world has gone to vehicles partly because of they came from horses, and the automobile was better. less pollution too. but the other part is that people can get to hospitals for life saving care. which isnt going to happen with mass transit. and EV better than ICE are, since some ignore the drilling fir oil, and transporting it using more oil. and oil spills from drilling and transport happen all the time. we only hear abut those that are huge.
Two points, direct capture tech is pretty useless, and would need to be perfect, forever, or all the carbon captured would be released at some point again. Secondly, don't underestimate how much the biological drive to reproduce and use all available resources drives us, like it does all life. That's the real reason we are in this position, that's the real reason birthrates aren't dropping off. That and the complacency and compliance we learn at school.
Took several years to accomplish the electrification of our home. Finished in fall 2023. We live in a 72 year old house in a cold climate west of Cleveland OH. As we remodeled, repaired, replaced we considered insulation and more efficient appliances. Replaced VW diesels with Model 3 and a Leaf. Heat pumps did very well with the sub twenty degrees in Dec/Jan. Heat pump water heater and dryer no brainers as were the electric cars.
everyone is saying that. Yes, it acknowledges climate change may cause human civilization to collapse, but the Earth's beautiful biosphere will also be greatly damaged and may never recover to its beautiful diverse ecology
Loved the conversation but noted that animal agriculture was pretty much passed over. I know this is an uncomfortable subject for many, whether they lean conservative, moderate, or liberal. Nevertheless it is the elephant in the room and someday all of us, from all leanings, will have to confront the fact that industrial animal agriculture is killing humans as well as its non-human victims, and impacting climate. Animal meat and byproducts can't be produced on a mass scale as primary food without serious environmental impacts.
The single biggest impact an individual can make to reduce climate change is to stop eating meat!! We can discuss what industry can do at the same time that we take personal responsibility.
Was this recorded before Hansen's new paper was published because his team find that climate sensitivity is much higher than Mr. Wells indicated, resulting in a much higher temperature projections!!
Climate change is the least of our problems. The collapse of ecosystems is the mammoth in the room. Too bad you didn't mention or spend time on this. Even if we had all the clean energy in the universe, and were able to cancel out planetary warming, it wouldn't prevent the destruction of our "life-support systems". All of this needs to be addressed simultaneously.
I kinda get where you're coming from, but if AC isn't, what is? Seawalls? Equally artificial with negative environmental consequences. AC doesn't have to be a negative-- if it's run on clean power, what exactly is the problem? (relative to common human lifestyles of today)
Too little, too late. We will never run this civilization as it stands today on renewables. Look at images of the mega cities of the world and you'll see.@@incognitotorpedo42
@@incognitotorpedo42 AC, seawalls, etc are not adaptations, an adaptation would be a gene mutation that allows us to physically cope with heat better. Using "clean" energy is an adjustment in our behaviour, not an adaptation.
The greater danger is in Antarctica. If the ocean's current that rings the continent significantly loses salinity, then the life sustaining conversion currents that pump heat--like the Gulf Stream will shut down. That will be the end of Europe.
One big worry is microorganisms, and how climate change affects them. Small changes could cause extinctions or blooms of key microorganisms. They are responsible for our food, and our oxygen. We should be worried about their adaptability to the temperatures we are changeing.
When they talked about degrowth I thought they were going to talk about reducing the number of people in the world. That always seemed like one of the easiest and best ways to help reduce the burden on all kinds of resource systems. IMO many things would be easier and probably better if we could get world population down to around 2 billion people - maybe even only one billion. That's still a hell of a lot of people.
Agree re: human population. Also, we could save far more in resources if people would go vegan. Nearly 8 billion people on the planet, but something like a hundred billion land animals that are brought on to the planet every year to be eaten. It's such an inefficient use of grains and huge waster and polluter of water.
Hans Rosling showed that as humans attain security and a modest level of prosperity that family size naturally comes down. We see it now in European countries that need more population. With moderation of our captialism-motivated growth we could reduce our impact on the planet. Markets are great for allocating resources but obviously need some direction and restraint to prevent over-running us all.
"When they talked about degrowth I thought they were going to talk about reducing the number of people in the world. That always seemed like one of the easiest and best ways to help reduce the burden on all kinds of resource systems." It's actually the economies and lifestyles of the richest 2 billion people that cause far more harm than the impacts of the other 6 billion. So it's large industrialized economies and consumerist lifestyles that must be shrunk first (while also encouraging people to have fewer children).
I like your work Tim and having David on. I like that you are still a conservative (I'm not), but your words, thoughts (expressed), and positions (re: capitalism) are understandable.
Tim. I love all your pod casts. Please do one on the IRA and why not a single electric car charging station has yet to be put in place. Also, now that all of the major car companies are going to the NAC standard. are we going to waste all of that IRA money building CCS charging stations? CCS charging is going to be dying out over the next few years. Everyone will be using NAC. I would love for you to do a podcast with me or Pete and have him addressed this. I hope they are on top of it and will build out a NAC charging stations with the IRA money. The best use of the IRA money would be to hire Tesla to build out the charging stations. They can do it faster and cheaper than anybody else and it’s proven to be superior and now it is the new standard.
@@meghan42 CCS = Carbon Capture and Storage. IRA = Inflation Reduction Act, the recent legislation that is building up clean industry in America. NAC is usually called NACS, the North American Charging Standard. It's a very nice ergonomic charging cable that all major car companies have adopted, so that all charging stations will work for everyone. It was originally Tesla's design, so all Teslas already have it. Tesla superchargers are being opened up to everyone, so it's kind of a big deal because all the other chargers kinda suck.
@@incognitotorpedo42I got a Tesla in 2019. We soon realized that the Tesla chargers are far superior to any other charging station. We thought about getting a different EV, but decided on a second Tesla in 2022, solely because of the charging system. Other companies are making good or great EVs, but the non-Tesla chargers suck. Most are broken with no reliable maintenance. Tesla regularly maintains their chargers.
Much of the catastrophic happenings come from population growth. More people, more homes, businesses and everything that comes with. Also, the more masses of people cause more deaths, destruction and chances of accidents, fires, contaminants, etc. If one person builds a house in the woods, that's one human with gasoline, matches, stoves and other things that,COULD, start a fire. That burns down those woods. So multiple that, times all the people wanting to live in the woods. And you add potential fire chances. Like whatever happened in Hawaii. As for city fires, fire is hot, hot as hell, due to the fuel. It's not the heat of the day causing a house to catch fire. Sure, dryness makes more fuel because of the lack of moisture. But ya would still have to have the flame or some kind of ignition source. Houses close together will no doubt cause fire jumping house to house. Thus population. Like the Chicago fire. I do agree, we should curb toxic waste. But once again, population.
The population in the developed world is already shrinking too fast. Google "demographic collapse". The population of earth will stabilize then start declining before terribly long.
A lot can be done with climate change simply by being less wasteful, for example buying single use products. (Water bottles can be reused, but usually aren't.)
Very interesting, very sensible. When Wallace-Wells talks about the "moral cost" of relative inaction, it's particularly compelling. Overall, it's been fascinating to see how the propaganda from the fossil fuels sector--which has dominated the politics of climate change--- has bifurcated in recent years (this conversation is an antidote). Fossil fuels propagandists, who fattened for decades on a steady diet of contemptuous denialism, have more recently added the menu option of resigned nihilism. So it's either, "there's no such thing as climate change, it's weather, folks, hot in summer, big deal, no need to do anything about it," or it's "game over! we're doomed! we're all going to die, so no point in doing anything about it." The conversation here opens up a third possibility: that intelligent people with moral agency can acknowledge the existence of the crisis, analyze it with a fair degree of accuracy, and actually take steps to mitigate its worst impacts, sending the planet on a trendline toward a better outcome. Gosh.
Considering the fragility of our economy and loss of our economic production due to climate change, it may highly constrain our ability pay for the research and projects to adapt.
They were the crucial decades when I was young too. First for the ice age then global warming. Then nothing happened. If we are warming currently, it's a good thing the climate activists from back in the day didn't smear the icecaps with soot to help hold in heat better to avoid the coming ice age like they thought might help.
Thank you 🎉We studied this in high school in the 70s..President Jimmy Carter was really trying to make positive changes. My Dad installed solar panels. I graduated in 76 and moved off grid. Raised in SF in the 60-70s was a great childhood. Live More Simply People. 🎉❤🎉
Yup! And Carter was ridiculed for his sweaters and 68F thermostat. And then Reagan had the solar panels Carter installed on the White House removed. He told us then we needed to get off the fossil fuels, and had we done that I probably wouldn't be a doomer today.
If you've done it... you could teach others here on UA-cam. What should we do?
You’re right,Sue; Ronald Reagan pointedly removed the panels on the roof of the White House. Day two of his administration.
@@DanielinLaTuna UA-cam is so weird, I got a notification about your comment because I also mentioned Reagan removing solar panels and how the ridiculed Carter for his sweater and thermostat, but for some reason it is removed.
Reagan did not help when he killed a Fusion Energy Program that my brother was working on !
he is one of the best speaker. a shame he has not read the last study from James Hansen... it s unfortunately gonna be way more challenging
Yep
The most alarming aspect of the present moment is that our government "deciders" have become owned by corporate interests. Big Money's primary focus is on quarterly profits and "shareholder value" - not climatology. In fact, climate mitigation is very often inimical to corporate interests. And THAT is scary, particularly when you consider the corporate "ownership" of our decision makers.
One thing that concerns me is that people are already migrating because of climate change and this is only going to increase in the coming years and we are wholly unprepared to deal with that fact.
Where are these migrations taking place and what climate change aspect is affecting the area?
@@topeka088 From the equatorial regions of Africa, parts the Middle East, and Central/South America migrating to the global North. The climate change aspect is the summer heat, increased storms, and changes to the growing season all of which are also increasing famine in many of these regions and especially in Africa. Some people would argue that there is political unrest, which is also a problem, but that's largely always been a problem in these areas and we didn't see the levels of migration we've seen over the past decade due to previous wars and authoritarian governments.
The U.S. military and its many scientific advisors, decades ago, have foreseen climate change as a major national security issue. Due to regional water & food shortages; human migration; etc leading to political instability and wars. The Pentagon made public statements on this years ago.
@@DennisMoore664and, just like here, the authoritarian govts are fueled by the climate migration
@DennisMoore664 I would respectfully disagree with you on that. Yes, there is migration from the Sahel and elsewhere to Europe, but I would ascribe that to unrest and warfare. Much of which is initiated and organized by Russia for the express purpose of putting strain on Europe and encouraging the rise of ultra-nationalism. And it seems to be working. Now, if you would like to present some climate data showing how the climate has changed there, I'm all ears. But you can't look at the result - migration - and wave your hands and blame climate change.
I live NW of Tallahassee, FL. Our plant hardiness zone just changed from 8b to 9a. When Hurricane Michael came through in 2018 spun up in less than 3 days. It hit Mexico Beach and Panama City as a cat 5. I live in 2 miles from the FL-GA line about 30 miles from Tallahassee and 85 miles from Panama City. When the storm came across winds were still 135 mph. I got out of my camper and stayed with my friend in Bainbridge, GA in a concrete block house. The fence on one side of the yard blew away, winds were coming from behind the house and donning our fancy rain gear (black plastic bag) sat on the front porch and watched a tornado go through on the next road over. Windows in the dining room blew out. It took 11 days to get power back on my property and 7 for her home in Bainbridge. I grew up with hurricanes for most of my life, it wasn't overwhelming, but starting with Hurricane Andrew, Camille, Katrina, Hugo, Ivan, Harvey, Michael things kept stronger and causing more damage. I don't know why more condos are still being built like there is no tomorrow. Extinctions are occurring at a much faster rate. I used to have meadowlarks, bobwhites, shrikes, certain sparrows, songbirds, woodpeckers. I'm 73, lived 20 yrs in Cape Canaveral, 30 yrs in Gainesville, and 22 yrs in Quincy and can see the changes. Here in Quincy, the IFAS (agriculture) stations Honeybelles have been living at the campus for well over 20 yrs when they shouldn't thrive here. I'm a scuba diver over 50 yrs. The corals in the Keys are dying. This summer I was visiting my brother in Sarasota. We went to the beach and I have never been in the water at that temperature. It was hot water. That means our fisheries will be wiped out, all of our seafood are compromised. Last summer came early last year - our average summer temps have been 91 for June and July, but last year we had temps from May to Sept we had more temps over 100 with many days up to 108. We had almost no rain until about late October we had a major drought.
Yeah wait till cat 7s come and with ocean temps off the coast of Florida being 100 degrees will make that happen sooner than later
So we are suppose to accept some narrow sample of anecdotal evidence as proof of what? 4.5 BILLION years of climate and you want to extrpolate your few decades non-scientific observation as an undeniable proof of a man-made trend? All of North America was once tropical and well it's been artic like too. Climate change is real and inevitable. A stable climate is impossible. BUT anthropogenic global warming is not fact.
Great information from David. We must all start thinking about those most likely affected in the short term. Thanks for inviting him on, Tim
This has nothing to do with your commentary, im attempting to override a suspension
Boo yah!
And maybe, I can only pray, people will seriously rethink having children in these end times. It’s a tabu subject. But the most obvious elephant in the room.
What's missing is an in depth discussion of worst case leading edge climate models, which themselves are always too optimistic because they do not adequately factor in positive feedback effects of runaway heat (e.g. smoke, methane, etc). The next 10, 20, 30 years are going to push large parts of the planet to the very edge of endurance & survivability. Canadian fires were catastrophic last year; they could easily get MUCH worse. Plan accordingly.
Yes and its didn't appear Well's was aware of Hansen's new aerosols findings too.
Les dernières études de James Hansen et son équipe d'universitaires parlent très bien de cela. C'est bien pire que "prévu". Même si Hansen et d'autres avaient annoncé cela depuis longtemps.
Yup. Is the Titanic Support Group where you sit around and commiserate over the state of the earth on line yet:)?
Thank you, Tim and David, for this very important conversation. I hope that folks take action quickly.
Current MAGA and many others don't believe this, so don't see much happening. Look on social media how many people deny this is problem. 😢
Did you buy some tshirts and a coffee mug ? That;s the ONLY REASON HE MAKES THESE VIDEOS. $$$$$$
Will people sacrifice one moment away from their many addictions to organize and do anything like changing the system much less their lifestyles? How many? Only Americans? Can we coordinate across cultures and nation states? They can use modern monetary theory to fund wars but not to change coded, neoliberal fossil capitalism.
Surprised that little mention was made about our dwindling natural resources. We are in a crisis of overshoot. We need to consume less of almost everything. Any sort of green transition is going to run up against the limited quantities of cheap energy fairly quickly. Without cheap energy, mining of copper and drilling for oil and gas will make it so expensive that it’s virtually inaccessible. I don’t know why this isn’t being discussed more widely. Check out William Rees and his work on ‘overshoot’.
Definitely need more of these kinds for talks. Thank you Tim for this extremely important topic.
It's time to wake-up people. Facts are facts... we are killing this beautiful planet and everything on it. ☮💟
Yes, please have more discussions on climate change. This program was very interesting.
Excellent! I can replace one existential crisis with another! Unfortunately, this is yet another topic that people are looking at through a political lens rather than understanding the facts..
edit: great discussion! Would love to see more of it
Don't worry, during these long winter nights, there's plenty of time to lose sleep on any number of existential crisis. The trick is to balance those anxieties and only dediate one to two hours on each.
P.S. Yes, this sounds very flip, but I've been going through this for about six years or more by now.
@@seandwyer2020 like benefiting from ADHD because you forget your OCD routines.
Crap, I say! At this stage of my life, getting in and our of Costco is enough of an existential crisis. I get the sweats just thinking about having to go there!
Tim, thanks for bringing David on to warn us. Climate change is not discussed enough. I, for one, would like to see it covered a whole lot more.
Do you understand what it takes to make a lithium battery?
Do you know what is involved in making an EV battery?
Going green truly is not being green at all.
All it does is create more man-made environmental disasters.
@@Swampfox953 Lies and FUD. Didn't you watch the video? The amount of mining needed for clean tech is 1% of the amount of mining needed for fossil fuels. Battery metals are mined once, then can be recycled and used multiple times. Fossil fuels are burned. Be smart.
@@Swampfox953 If you are correct, then we have more work to do, not less! So we better start sooner, not later! To some degree certainly, this early green technology is an improvement over the old tarpit technology. It might not get us all the way there. So, if we need more and better green technology, how do you propose figuring it out? Leave it to the marketplace? That's how we ended up where we're at. We need some directed investment, more research and development, more lifestyles that aren't so energy hungry. What are your ideas? You seem to know something about what's green and what's not.
Outstanding interview. Thank you. I read the science and have listened to many talks by scientists in the field. David Wallace-Wells aligns with the consensus as I have come to appreciate it -- but here has communicated where we are and what needs to be done in much more compelling way.
I wish this had more views. I feel like people are not taking actions that they could take, not paying attention, not doing enough. I feel like folks care less than they did even 10 years ago/are more distracted with everyday life and buying crap.
Lots of denial. People won't take action if they won't acknowledge the problem. By the time it's really in all of our faces, it will be too late.
yep... c'mon people, stop buying sh*t you don't need!
Good show Tim, don’t often see you silent and soaking everything up like you were part of the audience. Anticipating Pt 2. 👍
Excellent excellent excellent ! We are in the midst of accelerating climate and ecological collapse as David correctly points out, the difficulty is that we are also triggering tipping points which may in and of themselves continue accelerating Global Heating even as we humans reduce our greenhouse gases and fossil fuel emissions.
Of course. Much was left unsaid here. David is not a scientist. What he does is introduce us to the tip of the iceberg, that lies before us.
Ecological overshoot is the issue, climate change is a symptom. We are not able to shift the mindset to control our overshoot and the bottleneck coming in the next few decades will be hellish.
this interviewer sounds like a Big City clueless - "is it flooding"? Try drought and famine ALREADY happening!
Thanks for doing this , Tim! First time I’ve heard this crucial subject addressed on Bulwark. We need to wake up!
So you honestly believe that climate change is an existential threat to the world?
Really?
@@Swampfox953 You don't? I used to love summer, but now I think about where to escape to. (Not that there is anywhere).
@@meghan42
Obviously you weren't alive in the seventies because all I'm hearing is the same old BS that I heard back then except back then it was called global warming and we were trying to save the whales and stop strip mining.
Now strip mining is okay and killing off the whales is no big deal either.
Wind generators are killing thousands of birds every year including our national bird.
The beautiful and proud bald eagle but Lord help you if you kill one and get caught.
That's over a 10,000 fine and jail time.
@@Swampfox953 No one said "existential". Human extinction is not required for the climate problem to be REALLY BAD for all of us.
@@Swampfox953 I understand the science so I don't BELIEVE it, I know it. I accept it. The ability to end the heating has passed from our hands..... nature and physics is now driving the bus.
Yes do more of this kind, this is as important as stopping the attacks on democracy
Just wanted to say thank you for doing this episode.
Yes, more please! Climate impacts on immigration is a topic I would really like to hear more of to get me away from the primary horse-race.
48:05 The Gen Zs in my life are certainly making decisions based on the current future outlook. The main one being that they aren’t going to have children. My own two children too. My firstborn is an absolute no on kids. My second born (19) has talked about being a dad since he was 3 years old. He has gone from wanting bio kids, to wanting to adopt kids, to “I’m not sure.” He’s studying environmental engineering. Several nephews have said no to having kids. One of them broke up with his girlfriend because she decided she might want kids someday. Another one is getting married this year. They’re not having kids unless things seem okay in 10 years.
I wouldn't have any, looking at the science, and knowing there to be a far less rosy view on renewables, than was presented here. Look further. Google it. Read the book "Bright Green Lies", as one example.
Most of all, delve more deeply into what many scientists are now admitting....that this is much worse than expected allready, and portends to accelerate exponentially. We are in "overshoot" to the earths capacity, and trying to maintain business as usual, through renewables is not realistic. All of us need to participate in very massive conservation measures, but we're not going to do it. We're too addicted to following the line of least resistance....excessive use of fossil fuels.
People who are (incorrectly) spreading messages of doom are inadvertently contributing to demographic collapse.
I have the same experience w’my 3 Millennial-age sons - oldest married but they won’t have kids - youngest (34), single, but doesn’t want kids - middle one undecided.
Speaking as a childless millennial, it's not JUST climate change and other environmental issues affecting this decision, and I don't think my peers have been entirely rational. We've been swayed by a sort of marketing campaign. Especially one former president and his friends and following have been a constant, years-long announcement that human beings are utterly disgusting and everyone and everything is immutably crazy and awful. Of course that's wrong but most people are easily influenced on matters like hope and self-esteem and it's been inescapable. Most of my friends have been swayed to the point of ambivalence as to whether our species should exist at all. Shudder that circus, let normal humanity shine bright in our news cycles, bam you'll have grandkids within the year.
My son's feel the same. I have 1 grand out of 4 kids. He's 19 and is a no on kids too. May adopt much later in life.
We need to stop eating animals, stop subsidizing animal agriculture, assist animals farmers to transition to other vocations, and rewild much of the land. People will be healthier (many studies back this up), animals will not be born into suffering and slaughter, and greenhouse gas greatly reduced. But people are stubborn and don't want to change.
I studied gw in 1971 in my Physics and Natural Resources. Now called cc it was swept under the rug for 53 years. Wealth comes from oil. Production comes from oil. Motion comes from oil. Denial is not a solution. Prosperity comes from oil.
This was a great discussion. Please please PLEASE provide more content on the climate issue - it is appallingly absent from most political debates, despite, as David Wallace-Wells note, the recognition that we are in deep shit. Complacency is real - and content like this can only help.
A few other topics I'd love to see you consider (sorry, but you did ask):
Gun control. I hear a lot about this from a leftist perspective - I'd like to hear what you'd bring to it. As a mom who just put her kid in a public school for the first time, my biggest concern is that she'd be shot at school. Or at the movies, the mall, grocery shopping, at a concert, or just by walking on the wrong street at the wrong time. But mostly at school.
Data Privacy - we are constantly stalked on-line. Why does no one seem to care?
Health Insurance - I'd love to hear a nuanced comparison of Trump and Biden on how they've approached health insurance. It's such a complicated problem, and there are so many facets to it. The price of prescriptions, why we don't cover eye, ear, and dental care in basic insurance plans, what would it take to force insurance companies to lower plan prices, etc. Would lower prescription prices lower plans for instance? It's a huge topic, but so important given that in many families like mine, insurance and medical costs is our biggest expense.
White, Christian Nationalism - terrifying and seemingly quite pervasive
Birth Control - my in-laws think I'm crazy for being concerned that access to this would potentially be an issue in a second Trump presidency, but it seems a very real possibility if certain supreme court justices and state governments have anything to say about it.
Equal pay for Equal work - why is there not more consternation by American women that we have yet to pass the ERA? How could Republicans refuse to pass the Lily Ledbetter Act? What's the deal? Does the GOP just want women to work for less money and like it? Why are they happy for single mothers to struggle to get by if they are not in a two person family? What is the deal with outlawing family planning, but then not funding social programming to help women and and parents to support their families. Why is there such an anti-woman bias in the GOP?
Gay and trans rights in different states: I recently visited a friend who was completely incensed that "Michigan just passed a law that would put you in jail for ten years for misgendering a trans person." She had picked this up from online misinformation, but yet she couldn't believe that there are families who are banned from seeking treatment for their kids because of the state they live in.
Parental rights/trans kids playing sports - this issue seems completely overblown to me given the size of the problem. I'd love to know more about it since it's being used as a stalking horse to whip up controversy and increase animosity.
Vaccine politics - why are vaccines such a problem? Totally bizarre to me.
Infrastructure - what's the difference between the Biden and Trump administrations? I know the IRA is great, but I don't have a clue beyond the one bridge what it's funded. I'd like to have a bigger picture. Also, what did Trump do about infrastructure other than infrastructure week?
I'm sure I have a few more, but this seems like a good start.
Tim, I really appreciate the fact that you are providing content on significant issues that are currently receiving significantly less attention by the media in favor of focusing on the horse race ad nauseum. As a thoughtful leftist listener (currently flirting with the idea of membership even!), I have found the discussions at the Bulwark thought provoking and nuanced. Not going to lie, I can't quite understand your past decision to support a GOP that seems to be fine with sowing division in pursuit of power, but I very much appreciate your perspective as a reformed reformer and I look forward to seeing what you do in the future. It is my hope for the country that your site will provide a model for civil discourse for all sides. I wish you and Bulwark crew much success.
Thank you for bringing this urgent conversation up. True, innovation will help mitigate the amount of premature deaths and suffering due to fossil fuel emissions. But a huge gap in these discussions is how our lifestyle choices can make as much of an impact. Drive less, walk more. Eat less meat or even none. Refrain from pushing the “buy now” button. We are bypassing our own responsibility and accountability causing the problem. What are you doing to be part of the solution? What can you change in your life to reduce your carbon consumption?
Totally agree. Well said.
The plastics and fossil fuel industries have done a great job pushing the narrative that personal actions are more important than government and industry - which unfortunately has the result of letting them off the hook. Governmental regulations can do far more than individuals alone - in far less time. The most meaningful action a person can take is to VOTE for politicians who will prioritize climate change as part of their agenda. Unfortunately, that means the majority of the current GOP needs to be voted out to get meaningful action. All discussions of this issue should prioritize this message, and the corollary that news media needs to hold politicians accountable for what they do, and do NOT do, to improve our climate and increase our resiliency.
I'm so glad to see that it's not just a single solid block of ALL conservatives that have their head in their head in the sand. I know where a minority guys but we got to do what we can
If you want some sobering science about climate change look for Nate Hagens (The Great Simplification) and Canadian prof William E. Rees. They’ll get you thinking/worrying.
Thank you. I will check them out.
Rees is great. Guy McPherson explains the angle of human (mammal) habitat quite well.
But maybe it will not be over, until we as a species have exploited the last tree, indeed the bottoms of the oceans and the soils of Antarctica.
And then we would do Mars if we still can!
Great content. Two things...first is we are not at 1.2 degrees, but 1.47 at the end of 2023. 1.5 is this year. The other is the fact that ocean temps are rising so fast that there is a scientific case for people to be extinct by 2100.
Already passed 2c a few years ago
You sound interested in science! Check out Natalia Shakhova's latest on the ESAS methane - releasing into the atmosphere at a rate more than all the arctic land permafrost methane. There's 1200 gigatons of pressurized methane and just 50 gigatons as an "abrupt eruption" will double the atmospheric temperature. Yet even the IPCC dismisses the world's largest ocean shelf pressurized methane based on bad models. hilarious.
Which climate models are you looking at. I am currently looking a the Queensland model as well as several from India and these are clearly showing 1.87965 cooling by June 2028.
@@revolutionaryhamburger what’s going to cool the planet?
@@Jc-ms5vv Carl Sagan along with the settled scientists of his bygone era would say we could cool the planet's atmosphere overnight simply by using a sustainable amount of atomic energy in the form of 10,000 fission/fusion devices detonated in the atmosphere. This would cause a nuclear winter, according to concerned climate scientists. When I was going to government schools way back in the 1970s, the teachers told us settled science said we were without doubt heading into another Ice Age. Media were all on board with the coming of catastrophic climate cooling. At the time, we were thinking we could melt the Earth's ice caps with powdered coal and that would save us. I believed the science then, and I still believe it now.
Last year the late winter early spring was so wet and muddy, the crew were dragging their dudes in the mud. The calves would get a belly of mud before they got to the milk. Then we hit a drought that was so bad the farmers were feeding hay to their cattle starting May when they would normally not start feeding hay until November or December. And the hay fields were not growing in a way to replace all the hay used! So the farmers are just getting farther behind! Maybe this will be a once in awhile event, but I suspect not.
Our plan from the 80s to the 00s was. Dig the irrigation ponds deeper. Sink 800 foot wells to replenish the ponds. And lay irrigation pipes under roads so we could easily move water from one source to another or field if need be. As our knowledge and history always indicated dry and drought summers... Since the 00s. We have had no shortage of water. So much water that we have had planting seasons cut short by the mud, plants not even germinating because of water. Fields washing out in a thunderstorm. Move the earth back and sow again only to have it washed out 2 weeks later. No ground frost and rampant root eating fungus. Our river raising so fast farmers couldn't get equipment out of fields. And the river stayed high. Ending the season short. Family out west, not able to move their crops down a swollen Mississippi. Climate change is existential to farmers
Show some proof not just talk. I am very skeptical about this and see no data to back it up. There are many experts who disagree about a CRISIS being real.
@@johnnordby1331 one thing that they do agree on is a high level of Chaos. It will be very hard to make seasonal projections accurately
Get a biodiversity expert also and have them talk about insect numbers plummetting and what that means.
Capitalism can efficiently drive a lot of positive outcomes, but it has blind spots, and it can't address things it can't see. Things like pollution and climate change are effectively invisible to capitalism because the negative outcome affects society overall, not just the buyers and sellers making decisions at the points of sale. A cap-and-trade system, like Tim mentioned, or a carbon tax would be a simple way to make the problem visible to capitalism by shifting the cost to activities that generate pollution.
Capitalism has some other limitations, which can be addressed with thoughtful policy/regulations and government programs. We don't have to throw out capitalism, but we need be willing to take some additional steps for an optimal result.
Is the earth doomed ? No. Is humanity doomed? Yes.
None of my kids want to have kids. I've encouraged all of them to emigrate north. Degrowth seems inevitable
Earth is not doomed but mankind depends on a very narrow set of circumstances that allows life to survive. Unfortunately, it is easy to tip those very favorable conditions to be changed, as the history, of Earth, has shown us.
So how do you plan on controlling all the volcanoes that are erupting around the world and changing our climate?
How are you get to keep the underwater volcanoes from warming up the oceans?
To make sure that the oceans have a balanced salinity.
@@Swampfox953 I do not have a plan. Climate change or a meteor will change the living conditions of Earth without mab lifting a hand. The population,, of Earth has been wiped out many times, in the past. I assume the cycle will be repeated again.
Yes, we will finally learn that we are just another animal, with the loss of suitable habitat, under those circumstances.
@@Swampfox953 I think he, or she, was making the same point.
@@mrrecluse7002
So are you practicing your pro nouns?
Climate change is a hoax and you either fall for that scam or don't.
You either believe it is real or you don't.
I've already stated where I stand on this subject.
Biodiversity decline is associated and needs more attention.
What is inevitable….in 50 years or so, the less than one billion humans left alive, will be living like our ancestors did in the early 1800s with comparable levels of technology. Everything that ran on cheap oil will be unusable.
David, you're wrong on Gen Z's fears. I have 2 teens - they and their friends are mosdef fearful about what the future holds. Their fear not yet seen in markets bc they aren't buyers/drivers of economy yet. My kids don't want to drive across town for a fun op. They ask me to turn down the thermostat in CO in winter. They pester me to buy an EV. They ask for vegitarian meals cuz they've read about ag polution. They are really scared... BUT their fear will drive more righteous decisions as they enter their buying years.
It's depressing they must experience this but encouraging that they understand the scope of the problem.
I really appreciate the diverse content! 😊
I live in the Phoenix metro area and last summer was brutal. I was lucky and did not experience a power outage. Most people I know took steps to reduce the load on the grid. I have heavy insulation materials on my windows. I set my thermostat to 84 degrees and my AC still kicked on more than I would like. I have battery operated fans for emergency use. I’m planning on getting a small generator before this summer because I expect it to be worse than last summer. I hang dry my clothes. I don’t use my oven.
I am seeing a huge increase of EV’s on the streets. Tempe is planting native trees. Phoenix is treating some asphalt streets to mediate the heat that accumulates. We’re facing drought conditions and the eventual reduction of water from the Colorado River. Sadly, not enough of the residents are taking this seriously and making changes.
I'm glad to hear that Phoenix is taking steps to improve things, but what makes people think that living in a desert is a long term workable proposition?
@latriciaagle280 I just watched this video from Active Towns on Tempe's Culdesac project that not only is pedestrian and bicycle focused (with a Metro stop next door), but also cools temperatures 10-15 F with the design of their walkways and buildings to create more shade and reduce heat island effects.
ua-cam.com/video/Ognw7NSzuMU/v-deo.html
@@stewarer Thanks for sharing. I live in Tempe and we tend to be ahead of the surrounding municipalities when it comes to climate change and sustainability. I’m semi-retired and can walk to the store, library or ride a scooter to work when the weather is nice. I can ride the Orbit commuter bus to downtown or other locations.
I think the question is: can people adapt quickly enough. The changes we are experiencing now are happening in an exponential fashion, not a linear fashion. People think that they can adapt as long as the rate of change remains about the same. But the rate of change is not linear; it is exponential. There are also positive feedback loops (such as when we lose a lot of sea ice) that will increase global temperatures at a much faster rate of speed. This was a good discussion but there is much more to the climate issue and it would be worth further programs. It is completely rational for Gen Z to be concerned. We need to assist them with future planning, including with mental health issues stemming from a rapidly changing climate and the extinction of so many plants and animals. It is heartbreaking.
My sentiment exactly! A few years ago everyone was kicking the effects of global warming to 2100. Just a few days ago I read NYC and much of the Jersey Shore will be underwater by 2060. With Antarctica melting away fast I don't know whether to believe this or not! The truth is, nobody really knows. We are in totally unchartered territory!
Fascinating, enlightening and interesting…thanks so much guys!
Historians such as Margaret Lavinia Anderson have often contemplated just why the number of births remained stagnant through long periods of history, barring plagues, wars and famine. The best answer she could find was not more relaxed attitudes on sex, but on how happy/hopeful people were for their future. We are seeing plenty of that today. Marriages, sexual unions, births, people just hooking up, they are way down in many places, especially Japan, China, Bangladesh and Korea, but here as well. Yes, it could be millions and millions of people making individual financial decisions about their future, it could also be global depression which could be in part, a reaction to just what the future of the planet holds in store.
I’m a bit disappointed that the issue of extinctions was not mentioned - both flora and fauna - Maybe next time…. Otherwise an excellent and much-needed discussion. Thank you both.
I agree as gardener, I see many plants stuggle through the summer. I garden for insects so much of my garden is natives.
I also suspect water rationing will happen before I die.
It will be interesting when climate change affects our food supply in a big way.
I'm not disappointed. I'm outright pi**ed off. It's because they think and talk about humans only, all the time. It's always human death, human economy, human human human 24/7. When they ask "Is the earth doomed?" or say "Uninhabitable earth" or "the planet is in trouble", what they actually mean is "humans are doomed", "earth is uninhabitable by humans" and "humanity is in trouble". Humans are the single most important thing in their world, just like nothing else has value, and the universe would collapse as soon as humans are gone. Ugh.
DWW had blinders on on a lot of issues. It seems having a child or two will do that.
And no technology can change that. This is irreversible and horrifying. Global Warming is just ONE of the environmental issues. Just one of the SYMPTOMS. Fixing it won’t fix all the rest. Won’t bring back the thousands of species that have gone extinct at an unseen rate in the past decades. This is an invisible Global Biological collapse
43:45 re: degrowth
Interesting to hear David's comments so negative on this rapidly rising global trend.
- My understanding is that degrowth is not about simply "pulling the rug" from beneath any economy, nor transitioning immediately and entirely off fossil fuels to the point of economic crash, but rather transitioning an economy (over time, but necessarily as quickly as possible) with regard to its values.
This means changes not merely in terms of energy production, but also in terms of energy use,
eg. instead of advertising international airplane-based tourism, promote local and less energy-dependant internal or domestic tourism, or even the great staycation. People can still travel, but airplane flight and other highly polluting activities need to NOT be subsidised and DO need to be more expensive to reflect the impacts of the greenhouse gas pollution they create, and advertising it certainly needs to end.
- Anyway, it'd be great to either have David back to speak in more depth about degrowth in particular, perhaps in relation to the 1972 Limits to Growth, or have someone else who specialises in the topic.
I think it's irresponsible to not give worst case scenario
How alarmed should we be and how closely we should look at the danger are great questions if you're in 3rd grade.
Were burying ourselves in garbage that is going to turn the oceans into acid.
This isn't about GDP, needing air conditioning or letting government save us.
There are areas on Florida that flood on a clear day. In NYC, every time it rains, and sometimes without rain we get coastal flooding warnings. People who have beach side housing on Long Island are having to put their houses up on stilts, not “just in case” but because otherwise their houses flood at least a couple times a year. Climate change is here and already affecting us, but in some cases it’s a boiling frog issue.
I moved away from Washington State because fire season was horrible because without the air to move the smoke out, Seattle and all the areas around would look like those couple of days NYC experienced for a month or two. But people just go about and ignore how it wasn’t like that every year not that long ago.
And as a farmer, the climate really messes with growing. There are areas in the South they can’t grow tomatoes in the summer anymore because it’s too hot. (Tomatoes, peppers, and a bunch of other crops stop producing above a certain temperature.) Even as far north as I am, I have to grow my tomatoes under shade cloth at the height of summer to keep them producing. And in another 10 years or so we might be able to start growing citrus in NYC all year outside. So yea….
Good examples of impact. Thanks.
I think we're seeing wine grape production expand geographically, too. Some years back I'd heard about someone in, I think, Oregon starting an olive grove thinking that by the time the trees mature enough to start fruiting the weather patterns will have changed sufficiently to support long term production. The unpredictability of climate patterns, soil conditions, etc., complicate the picture but shifts in crop viability is a given. Good luck to you.
I'm from wisconsin. I saw UA-cam video that somebody did about the climate change in Wisconsin and how it's affecting the farms and the land. All the comments were so negative. Basically said climate change is a cycle. He's exaggerating. It's not a problem.
Personally, I saw somebody mowing their lawn in December. Not sure why but it was 50 degrees and of course no snow. That's not normal in Wisconsin in middle of December ( we do have snow now but heard 2 weeks temp forcast 50 degrees)
@@merricat3025 NYC literally JUST broke our snow drought. We went 701 days without an inch of snow in a single day at Central Park. Which is just... wtf. The previous record was 383 days, and the average is about 2' a year. Soooo weird. And, weirdly, this makes our extreme colds colder. Last year we went negative several times which the area is not known for. The unpredictability is frankly harder to deal with because it makes planning for things that can take 100+ days to grow a real challenge.
@@anaconaway What about the Port of NY & NJ - any news about anticipated sea rise?
@@merricat3025 I too heard those that argue it's all a cycle. Although it is a cycle, there is so little appreciation of the time scales involved. Civilization as we know it is measured in mere thousands of years. The natural big climate cycles operate over tens, hundreds and thousands of millennia. We are causing big climate change in mere decades. Is it an existential threat? if one is refering to civilization as we know it, you bet it is! If we're talking about human extinction, that may be a side effect as we may precipitate a nuclear war which may precipitate a pandemic that does the job. But how brutal will be the suffering even without a nuclear war? There are things to worry about for sure!
Thank you for “giving us a break” from the clown show! This guy needs to be on a rolling tape in our heads. Because we are all too complacent, expecting some miracle. But, don’t look up!
The only thing that would help
(that I know of)
Is STOP BURNING FOSSIL FUEL!!!
The planet is not in trouble. We are!
Well, sure. The show must go on, and evolution will pick up the pieces. But for one single species to be fully responsible for the mass extiinction of millions of others does not amount to a consolation prize for the planet, and only great shame for us.
Our wreckage may turn out to be so great, that biodiversity may never return to its former glory. Who knows?
Both can be true. And both ARE true. Oceans are in advanced die off and mass extinction of many insects imperative to our ecosystems survival. And many more extinction taking place as we speak. Life on earth is interdependent. If you mean there will still be a big lifeless rock floating through space like mars, after all extinction takes place, then yes, “The planet is not in trouble.”😢
@@mrrecluse7002 Your conclusions may be true but I don't think so. In a million years evolution will restore the biodiversity we have destroyed. But like you say, who knows.
@@drawyrral Evolutionary timescales are so long, it could take 10 million, which is a quickey, in geological time. The Permian took 10 million, but the element of surprise is not to be underestimated.
@@mrrecluse7002 genetic mutation is always a surprise and it is relentless.
The title is wrong. The earth is NOT doomed, it's the humans that are doomed. The earth has been here for millions of years and will be just fine, especially after modern civilization, and the damage it has brought, is massively curtailed , one way or another.
This take really lacks self-awareness. We, the people having this conversation, are humans. If all humans die, the fact that other life will survive is just a pleasant abstraction.
That can't be assumed. This jewel of the solar system may never return to the rich biodiversity it has been endowed with, in our wake. I don't for a moment underestimate the damage we are capable of, even to the entire web of life.
The planet will also be hugely damaged by this. Its beautiful biosphere may never recover to its past glory, even if humans disappear
Sadly, all I can say is Thank God I'm in the winter season of my life. 😢
Thank you Tim excellent show!
Hey Tim! The Sunday pod is becoming my favorite.
Another great podcast as always Tim & such an important topic concerning Climate Change with your very knowledgeable guest David Wallace-Wells. This is the first podcast, no actually the second podcast that I’ve heard discussing this very important topic of Climate Change; the only other one that I can think of was with Dr. John McDougall, he would be another great guest for you to have on, he was actually greatly affected by climate change; one of the worst forest fires ever in California & he lost everything in his medical practice due to that fire & he has since relocated to another area of California I believe; he also has his own podcast. Would like to hear more podcasts on this very important topic, a really nice change from everything TRUMP related. Always enjoy your podcasts Tim. Keep up the good work!!! ❤
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️👍🤗🇨🇦
Excellent insight and information as usual.
I know I am off topic, but let me just reinforce that the grid can not supply all the future electricity energy because the grid itself is insanely expensive to expand.
The future is not generation and grid transmission of electricity to the millions and millions of ends of the grid.
The future is generation and storage at the millions and millions of ends of the grid.
Most vehicles are parked 23hrs every day at a building, and so if EV and V2G or V2X and selfplug-in, then local grids will balance out local storage.
Distant renewables and nuclear will fail economically because of their grid dependence.
5 times more electricity and grid capacity in a no fossil fueled future.
Consumers will have the technology to go offgrid even in the suburbs.
66% of electricity bills are grid costs.
Those left on the grid will be faced with fixed grid costs in their grid electricity bills.
The grid may be an abandoned asset.
Marine ecologist here. Watched the mass coral bleaching event in the keys this year. It is beyond frustrating that most of the people I interact with outside of work have no idea the scale of the problems. And if I try to speak to it any part of it I’m a doomer.
My guess is we will develop the technologies to avoid major catastrophes but never the will to deploy them in a meaningful way.
It really sucks the joy out of my work and the purpose out of my life. I think I need therapy.
As a marine ecologist you should fully understand that the Earth has cycles.
That the earth's climate has ebb and flow.
It's happened before it'll happen again.
@@Swampfox953Barring some galactic catastrophe, planet Earth will likely go on. But whether or not it will be livable for humans is another question. People are dying, species are going needlessly extinct. Please start caring. You live here, too.
@@Hklbrries
You really just don't get it about the reality of going green do you?
You're killing my planet!
@@Swampfox953 So climate change is just a natural ebb and flow to you?
Eco-therapy! We all need it.
May I suggest Nate Hagens, Steve Keen, or Paul Beckwith for more climate content?
Nate Hagens is in denial as even Paul Beckwith. Try Jim Massa Science Talks - he's a Ph.D. Oceanographer living in Alaska, focused on global warming science. He says we're doomed and he actually takes GEE McFearSun seriously unlike Paul Beckwith and Nate Hagens.
Way too little, way too late. Even the IPCC has admitted in the last two or three years that it is now irreversible. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution around 1750 we are now above 2° C. That figure by the way, was not based on science, an economist came up with that figure. We are now into "abrupt change" and now well into the sixth mass great extinction. The current rate of change it is estimated to be about 10,000 times faster, any species can adapt to. There are several things, including a sudden release of methane from the Siberian shelf, which can cause over a 1° C temperature rise in a matter of weeks or months. If that happens, global food crops will fail. They are deeply stressed as it is, and let us not forget lack of potable water for many. Global food crops fail billions will starve. You don't have to be particularly imaginative to guess the response of the major governments and militaries to such an event.... It's been quite the party, and we will say we can't afford the bill, but the piper will be paid.
Amen.
Wallace-Wells' presentation once again brings home the fact that innumeracy is at the heart of climate denialism. Opinion makers need to combat innumeracy at every term by putting numbers on, for example, the amount of land burned by wildfire over the years and the relative prices of fossil fuel and clean energy.
Oil is 99% correlated with GDP. Materials 100%. Folks that came up with GDP warned do not use GDP as a measure of wealth
Human beings, for some reason, are really bad at assessing ranges of risk. Especially in the media, reporters want to know what IS going to happen, not what MIGHT happen. Wallace-Wells may have unduly frightened young people, who are even worse at weighing risk than old men like me, by focusing on the worst case. But what really needs to be driven home is that it's entirely in our hands, and "our" means all of us. We all need to put pressure on our political leaders to embrace smart solutions without wimping out due to their personal careerism desires.
Agree. But Wallace wells is not talking worst case. If you want that look at William Rees or even Guy McPherson. Best not to.
The trouble with politicians is that their strings are pulled by lobbyists.
True, the lobbyists get traction with lawmakers because their clients donate money to the politicians' campaigns to do . . . what? Produce TV and web ads that persuade voters to vote for them. In the end, it's all about the voters. So if the voters go directly to the lawmakers and say "here is what matters to us, here is what we want from you," that also matters. A lot, according to what we hear again and again from their staffers. The problem is that most voters don't bother because they don't know how much potential power they have.@@chain8847
The only dscarbonization we have done was in using more renewables.
Producing EVs in mass is not helping.
Single used vehicles are not energy efficient no matter the source. Public transit, and high speed trains are what should be massively expanded. In rural areas, I’d be inclined to accommodate some fossil fuel vehicles for the obvious reasons.
Single used vehicles are not energy efficient no matter the source. Public transit, and high speed trains are what should be massively expanded. In rural areas, I’d be inclined to accommodate some fossil fuel vehicles for the obvious reasons.
well, since the world has gone to vehicles partly because of they came from horses, and the automobile was better. less pollution too. but the other part is that people can get to hospitals for life saving care. which isnt going to happen with mass transit. and EV better than ICE are, since some ignore the drilling fir oil, and transporting it using more oil. and oil spills from drilling and transport happen all the time. we only hear abut those that are huge.
Two points, direct capture tech is pretty useless, and would need to be perfect, forever, or all the carbon captured would be released at some point again.
Secondly, don't underestimate how much the biological drive to reproduce and use all available resources drives us, like it does all life. That's the real reason we are in this position, that's the real reason birthrates aren't dropping off. That and the complacency and compliance we learn at school.
Thank you for doing this.
Took several years to accomplish the electrification of our home. Finished in fall 2023. We live in a 72 year old house in a cold climate west of Cleveland OH. As we remodeled, repaired, replaced we considered insulation and more efficient appliances. Replaced VW diesels with Model 3 and a Leaf. Heat pumps did very well with the sub twenty degrees in Dec/Jan. Heat pump water heater and dryer no brainers as were the electric cars.
The Earth isn't doomed, Humanity is.
Good one, that hits hard
We have earned it!
Not reincarnate here is almost a good news !! 😅
Unfortunately many of the animals that have nothing to do with this are doomed too
everyone is saying that. Yes, it acknowledges climate change may cause human civilization to collapse, but the Earth's beautiful biosphere will also be greatly damaged and may never recover to its beautiful diverse ecology
Loved the conversation but noted that animal agriculture was pretty much passed over. I know this is an uncomfortable subject for many, whether they lean conservative, moderate, or liberal. Nevertheless it is the elephant in the room and someday all of us, from all leanings, will have to confront the fact that industrial animal agriculture is killing humans as well as its non-human victims, and impacting climate. Animal meat and byproducts can't be produced on a mass scale as primary food without serious environmental impacts.
The single biggest impact an individual can make to reduce climate change is to stop eating meat!! We can discuss what industry can do at the same time that we take personal responsibility.
I've stopped eating animals for the animals and the climate.
Was this recorded before Hansen's new paper was published because his team find that climate sensitivity is much higher than Mr. Wells indicated, resulting in a much higher temperature projections!!
Climate change is the least of our problems. The collapse of ecosystems is the mammoth in the room. Too bad you didn't mention or spend time on this. Even if we had all the clean energy in the universe, and were able to cancel out planetary warming, it wouldn't prevent the destruction of our "life-support systems". All of this needs to be addressed simultaneously.
Brilliant, many thanks
Great show! Alarming but important.
Air conditioning is not adaptation.
I kinda get where you're coming from, but if AC isn't, what is? Seawalls? Equally artificial with negative environmental consequences. AC doesn't have to be a negative-- if it's run on clean power, what exactly is the problem? (relative to common human lifestyles of today)
Too little, too late. We will never run this civilization as it stands today on renewables. Look at images of the mega cities of the world and you'll see.@@incognitotorpedo42
That's right. It just means the use of more fossil fuels.
@@incognitotorpedo42 AC, seawalls, etc are not adaptations, an adaptation would be a gene mutation that allows us to physically cope with heat better. Using "clean" energy is an adjustment in our behaviour, not an adaptation.
Bravo Bulwark! Good stuff brother,, was refreshing to listen.
Very important topic for conversation and action. Not done with this video yet but it is very interesting and makes excellent points thus far
So informative. Very easy to understand. Thank you.
The greater danger is in Antarctica. If the ocean's current that rings the continent significantly loses salinity, then the life sustaining conversion currents that pump heat--like the Gulf Stream will shut down. That will be the end of Europe.
I worry most about Antarctica and the fate of Thwaites Glacier.
One big worry is microorganisms, and how climate change affects them.
Small changes could cause extinctions or blooms of key microorganisms.
They are responsible for our food, and our oxygen.
We should be worried about their adaptability to the temperatures we are changeing.
The Earth will be fine long after humans are gone.
When they talked about degrowth I thought they were going to talk about reducing the number of people in the world. That always seemed like one of the easiest and best ways to help reduce the burden on all kinds of resource systems. IMO many things would be easier and probably better if we could get world population down to around 2 billion people - maybe even only one billion. That's still a hell of a lot of people.
That job will be up to nature itself. Responsible breeding is our greatest taboo. You will find instant enemies if you even breach the subject.
Agree re: human population. Also, we could save far more in resources if people would go vegan. Nearly 8 billion people on the planet, but something like a hundred billion land animals that are brought on to the planet every year to be eaten. It's such an inefficient use of grains and huge waster and polluter of water.
Hans Rosling showed that as humans attain security and a modest level of prosperity that family size naturally comes down. We see it now in European countries that need more population. With moderation of our captialism-motivated growth we could reduce our impact on the planet. Markets are great for allocating resources but obviously need some direction and restraint to prevent over-running us all.
@@fosterbbo Too bad the world didn't take your advice 50 years ago. Critical time has been wasted.
"When they talked about degrowth I thought they were going to talk about reducing the number of people in the world. That always seemed like one of the easiest and best ways to help reduce the burden on all kinds of resource systems." It's actually the economies and lifestyles of the richest 2 billion people that cause far more harm than the impacts of the other 6 billion. So it's large industrialized economies and consumerist lifestyles that must be shrunk first (while also encouraging people to have fewer children).
I like your work Tim and having David on. I like that you are still a conservative (I'm not), but your words, thoughts (expressed), and positions (re: capitalism) are understandable.
That was great information, thanks!
I would like to hear more podcasts about environment.
Tim. I love all your pod casts. Please do one on the IRA and why not a single electric car charging station has yet to be put in place. Also, now that all of the major car companies are going to the NAC standard. are we going to waste all of that IRA money building CCS charging stations? CCS charging is going to be dying out over the next few years. Everyone will be using NAC. I would love for you to do a podcast with me or Pete and have him addressed this. I hope they are on top of it and will build out a NAC charging stations with the IRA money. The best use of the IRA money would be to hire Tesla to build out the charging stations. They can do it faster and cheaper than anybody else and it’s proven to be superior and now it is the new standard.
What does CCS, IRA and NAC stand for?
@@meghan42 CCS = Carbon Capture and Storage. IRA = Inflation Reduction Act, the recent legislation that is building up clean industry in America. NAC is usually called NACS, the North American Charging Standard. It's a very nice ergonomic charging cable that all major car companies have adopted, so that all charging stations will work for everyone. It was originally Tesla's design, so all Teslas already have it. Tesla superchargers are being opened up to everyone, so it's kind of a big deal because all the other chargers kinda suck.
@@incognitotorpedo42 I also understand that heat pumps could significantly improve winter battery performance, but that's not my area of expertise.
@@incognitotorpedo42I got a Tesla in 2019. We soon realized that the Tesla chargers are far superior to any other charging station. We thought about getting a different EV, but decided on a second Tesla in 2022, solely because of the charging system. Other companies are making good or great EVs, but the non-Tesla chargers suck. Most are broken with no reliable maintenance. Tesla regularly maintains their chargers.
We hit 1.54 average warming in 2023
"There's nothing to worry about with the planet. The planet's doing just fine. The PEOPLE are fucked."
-- George Carlin
funny joke but the planet is also f''cked
@@russmarkham2197 No, not actually. The climate will regenerate within geological timescales but that won't help us at all.
@@LordZontar we are on the same page. I'd like to see how it eventually turns out.
Much of the catastrophic happenings come from population growth. More people, more homes, businesses and everything that comes with. Also, the more masses of people cause more deaths, destruction and chances of accidents, fires, contaminants, etc. If one person builds a house in the woods, that's one human with gasoline, matches, stoves and other things that,COULD, start a fire. That burns down those woods. So multiple that, times all the people wanting to live in the woods. And you add potential fire chances. Like whatever happened in Hawaii. As for city fires, fire is hot, hot as hell, due to the fuel. It's not the heat of the day causing a house to catch fire. Sure, dryness makes more fuel because of the lack of moisture. But ya would still have to have the flame or some kind of ignition source. Houses close together will no doubt cause fire jumping house to house. Thus population. Like the Chicago fire.
I do agree, we should curb toxic waste. But once again, population.
The population in the developed world is already shrinking too fast. Google "demographic collapse". The population of earth will stabilize then start declining before terribly long.
My dad always used to say there's too many people in the world. That was more than 40 years ago.. He was right.
A lot can be done with climate change simply by being less wasteful, for example buying single use products. (Water bottles can be reused, but usually aren't.)
Very interesting, very sensible. When Wallace-Wells talks about the "moral cost" of relative inaction, it's particularly compelling.
Overall, it's been fascinating to see how the propaganda from the fossil fuels sector--which has dominated the politics of climate change--- has bifurcated in recent years (this conversation is an antidote). Fossil fuels propagandists, who fattened for decades on a steady diet of contemptuous denialism, have more recently added the menu option of resigned nihilism.
So it's either, "there's no such thing as climate change, it's weather, folks, hot in summer, big deal, no need to do anything about it," or it's "game over! we're doomed! we're all going to die, so no point in doing anything about it."
The conversation here opens up a third possibility: that intelligent people with moral agency can acknowledge the existence of the crisis, analyze it with a fair degree of accuracy, and actually take steps to mitigate its worst impacts, sending the planet on a trendline toward a better outcome. Gosh.
60000 in Europe not UK
yes more climate talk!
The fact Tim was ever a gop guy amazes me
Informative... thank you...
Is the Earth doomed? Nah, it'll be fine. Humanity, however, is completely fukked.
Considering the fragility of our economy and loss of our economic production due to climate change, it may highly constrain our ability pay for the research and projects to adapt.
You immigrated from Oakland because of the fires ... and ... you chose as a refuge ... New Orleans? OK. Good.
There is nothing like hunger to get peoples attention. Massive crop failures will get every ones attention.
That's coming soon.
That first fact is a stunner...
They were the crucial decades when I was young too. First for the ice age then global warming. Then nothing happened. If we are warming currently, it's a good thing the climate activists from back in the day didn't smear the icecaps with soot to help hold in heat better to avoid the coming ice age like they thought might help.