Alternative title: Why China is actually a real estate company, and what that means for investors. Next video on Wendover: The insane engineering of a china shaped airplane Next video on Half as interesting: the logistics of starting your own China
You'll like Peter Zeihan too because he's been saying much of this 4 part series for quite a while now (just with a more snarky, chirpy, GenX geopolitical spin). PolyMatter avoids the sarcasm.
This is happening, to a lesser degree, all around the world. I live in São Paulo, Brazil, and and many appartments here, especially in the historic center are unnocupied, because people buy them only as a investment for especulation, and don't actually move. On the last election, one of our candidates for mayor was really concerned by that, he even stated that São Paulo "Has more peopleless homes than homeless people", which is quite brutal if you think about it.
People-less homes sound so much sader than homeless people. Homeless people still have a purpose: beg enough to survive another day. People-less homes? They are just waiting to crumple. Poor people-less homes. 😥😥😥
That is because the money supply is too high, now more than ever with the covid but it began in 2008 (central banks call it quantitative easing). That means interest rates are very low and investors are looking for safer and low-risk investments than they used too because the reward are not worth it anymore for "normal" investments (like companies). What is the safest market to see your assets grow steadily over a decade or so nowadays ? Housing is the answer. Appart from the big investors normal people just trust more the housing market than the stock market and you can't blame them for that. Since urbanization is growing and the countryside is dying (at least in the west) housing prices would have rose prices in cities automatically. I am no expert on the subjet and I probably made a few mistakes but that is what I understand from it. The financial system is fucked (and China is not an exception here) and both people and big investors need to look for safe investments that will grow no matter the economic downturns.
@@fr-mk7gh You might not be an expert, but you speak a lot more common sense than most experts I've listened to. I'm a nutter. I invest in the Bible. My reasoning being that since Jesus told me to store up my Treasures in the Heavens, and not down here on the earth, because moth and rust consume the treasures on the earth, and thieves dig through and steal, and apparently, Malachi 3:10 says the interest rates are amazing in that if I just hand over the tithes I'm supposed to pay in full, God will open up some windows in heaven so that so many blessings will Flood into my stores so that there is no longer room to hold it, it kinda made sense to me (I'm no expert either. I'm sure my dad knows more than me.) So I just kinda went with it. It's kinda working out for me so far. Not saying I've got a house or anything. But so far, even though in theory, I should have starved or died or something, I'm still very much alive. And well. And somehow happier than the people with 5 properties. They keep talking and complaining about the repairs and finding suitable tenants and the maintenance and the mortgage rates and stuff I don't understand too much, because I've never done that stuff. But yeah, I've got a nutty fiscal policy. But I guess, if it works, it works, right? It feels like one of those crazy situations where I'm only flying because I'm aiming to hit the ground and missing. But there you go. Have a good day, sir!
hell，as a Chinese citizen, i have to say this is the first foreign video i saw that mentioned the role that local governments played in this mad real estate market, how they sell public land and all those empty companies. you really know about China.
@@rickv9180 It depends, in big cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, rent can be incredibly high, like 4000 yuan(about 650 dollars) for 50 square-meters, But it is much lower in small cities.
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As a Chinese, I have to say the "China's Reckoning" series are incredible videos, especially Part 1 and Part 2, which are the most critical problems in current China. But it's really hard to solve them in a short time.
Hello! its honestly suprising to see someone actually suffering these problems for once. Id really like to hear more about what you think about these problens and these videos.
The particular issue is not China specific but the magnitude and associated problems related to government are, and clearly an issue with government. Perhaps we are beginning to see the limits of authoritarian command, which works to catch up to the world economic leaders, but not to become an economic leader. The same thing was the case with the Soviet Union.
The potential collapse of Evergrande, one of China's largest property developers, is happening. What happens to this complex network of economic and social webs then?
Everything about China is merely a cardboard facade, it's never surprise for us Asian about China, and that's the reason whenever they're capable of they'll flock out of the country.
As a foreigner married to a Chinese woman and living in China for years, I can confirm the obsession with housing. Literally 99% of women and their families will not have a marriage until the have their own house. It's madness but it has its reasons. I see lots of foreigners get into serious relationships with girls and then when this comes up during marriage conversations, everything falls apart because they can't buy a house. Luckily for me it worked because my wife's family bought a second house for when she would get married. Basically, the obsession comes from the fact that landlords constantly push out their renters with little to no notice in order to sell their property. Like you can be living in your apartment under a year lease and suddenly the landlord tells you that you have 10 days to leave and the ONLY way out of this is to actual own the place you live in. So Chinese families look for a stable place to live.
Sounds like the strict pro-tenant laws of the more liberal areas in the US are actually useful in some regard. China has such a huge love of home-ownership that they basically provide no protection for renters. It's absolutely impossible most everywhere around here to kick someone out of their home in less than a month, even if they're not paying rent, simply because the government has recognized how difficult it can be to move on short notice. China's government seems less concerned with the citizens' welfare, what a shock.
@@holyender515 It goes both ways; some tenants do abuse these laws, but these laws also prevent abuse by landlords. When neither option is perfect, I don't see a problem with erring on the side of helping the people with less power.
That's not true anymore some say the opposite is true... Today there are more stories of potential Chinese wives not marrying somebody because they own one of these empty apartment building that's losing money...
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But what is the end goal? If the investment property is empty, how do you get your money out? What happens when a huge chunk of the population goes into retirement and there’s nobody to rent these houses? Doesn’t it end up as a black hole for Chinese personal savings?
@@prasoongupta12 id say a combination of lack of all resources, water and soon maybe even food and production materials if Chinas imports cant keep up after possible political isolation. But thats a guess
As someone who grew up in china, I’m extreme impressed by the level of details and accuracy of the information you presented. It in fact helped me put the puzzle together to have a better understanding of china. Mad respect.
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The current birth rate still gives it 15 million newborns per year. At least China should not have the unemployment problems that India has which is a far more serious problem.
Please report the names of anyone showing negativity toward or disbelief in China. Community social workers would like to help them become better informed.
To be fair a lot of these homes are vacation homes. I would like know how high that number is once you substrate home that are vacant most of the year but not all the time.
a better answer would be the 'living expenditure'. In China, not only the housing price but also some costs like medicare, education costs together with relatively lower wages. China became rich, but the people are not.
My wifes family (Chinese) just bought their 3rd house… just because. My mother in law wanted me to pay too, told her im not paying because im not gonna live there. Needless to say she isnt so happy with me right now 😂. Im happy with my own house
Housing price in Beijing is higher than SF bay area. But the average monthly income in Beijing is less than $2000. Even if you earn $30000 monthly, you cannot afford a condo in Beijing. It's absurd.
Kind of Sounds like Japan in the 80s before their lost decade. At one time, the land on which the Imperial Palace was on was worth more than the property value of the entire state of California.
@@leezhieng Condos in inner circle of Beijing is $2000 per square foot. Condos in outer are mostly over $1000 per square foot. Single-family houses are insanely expensive.
I was thinking the exact same thing funny how he says we're wrong to think of china as a cardboard box. It is. It's called Tofu Buildings. It literally is made out of Cardboard quality materials.
I’m curious how Polymatter would get info on China’s military. I’ve watched a couple foreign creators on China and I have some suspicious of their capabilities.
@@JohnKuang-rf6fb I hope they are as unbiased as they can be... I’ll add this link here separately to you. Edit: UA-cam tends to eat certain links but I’m just looking at this scam. I’m sure China has upgraded their military but I’m also wondering if they didn’t plan for sustainable of their military. The semiconductor scam is why I’m wondering it more.
a less extreme version of this affects almost every major city in the world. Toronto and Vancouver are full of newly built empty condos owned by foreign investors
@@peterbeyer5755 The hell you talking about? They’re clearly old yet active, are you saying that any old looking people that are doing exercise are gymnast pretending to be old?
@@cheesemccheese5780 Might very well be, as other manufacturers catch up. Tesla knows about electric cars, but it doesn't have the knowledge and experience about support systems, driving experience, and long time support that established car makers have. Whether Tesla will crumble as electric cars become mainstream depends on how well which manufacturer will be able to leverage its assets. Time will tell.
This type of western propaganda has been going on for decades. It's easily debunked by a reality check on the ground. The most frequently used example is the ghost city of Xinzheng. It's now a vibrant city of 6 million residents. There're fundamental differences between how China and the rest of the world works.
March 2021 (14:42): “A sudden and rapid fall in prices is the worst-case scenario. More than a few experts argue this is far from inevitable, and there are credible reasons to think China is not about to experience another 2008.” August 2022: “Oh, crap.”
Tens of Millions of Chinese are just saying “Fuck yo bullshit ass banks I ain’t paying my mortgage!” The cascade effect has already started hitting the banks and it’s expected to be a 600 Billion USD affair. Oof.
You know, the inventory has been building there for the past decade and it started to seem like it would go on forever, somehow. People would buy unlivable apartments and flip the for massive profits year after year. The party is finally over.
I watched this 6 months ago, and now Chinese developer Evergrand is less than 2 weeks from insolvency. The bubble is about to pop over there in a way that makes the US housing crisis of 2008 look like nothing. Property values will crash and with some people "owning" 2-4 homes the supply of property will far outpace demand.
@@mystomachhurt9312 Deserved. They bought presale homes and doing housing speculations, which is no different than investing in a stock market. They took the risk then they should bear the consequences.
@@shinqqing5161 Uh, not all are trying to speculate. Many are purchasing their first homes. And this is NOT like the stock market. People gave their money to Evergrande so evergrande could build them a house. In other words they paid for a service that they are not going to get.
I would just like to thank you for being one of the only channels on UA-cam to give China the coverage it deserves. I find the country deeply fascinating, and the influence of China is undeniable given its population and economy, but it is strangely difficult to find coverage of it that delves into the complexities of the country; that's why I love that whenever I come to your channel I know I'm about to learn about something truly interesting in a way that tries to unpack the nuance and complexities that shape China and its role in the world. Keep up the good work, both when it comes to China coverage, and all the other things you bring up!
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Can Confirm. My grandparents live in China, and they rent a 150 sq.m (1600 sq. ft) 3bd. 2ba. apartment in a small town of a few hundred thousand people in Fujian. If they were to have bought the apartment outright, it would've cost the equivalent of about USD180,000; meanwhile, their monthly rent is only $250. That's a Price to Rent Ratio of 60, and prices are still skyrocketing while rents have barely moved; for context, a Price to Rent of 21 and above means that it's cheaper to rent than to own, under 15 means it's cheaper to own than to rent, and 15-20 means it's about the same. From a financial perspective, it makes no sense to buy a home in China.
It really puts things in perspective when you realize a city with hundreds of thousands of people is considered just a small town in China (Meanwhile I live in Lake City, the biggest settlement in Columbia County, FL, and we only have 12,000🤣!).
@@Idontwantahandle6669 I should put into context though that this $180k for a 150 sq. m. 3bd. 2ba. is in Anhai Township in Fujian Province, a small, relatively rural town in a not too wealthy province. It's the equivalent of some rural town of 5-10 thousand people in Manitoba. An apartment similar to theirs in a city like Beijing or Shanghai will easily cost over a million USD, $750,000 for a 90 sq. m. apartment in Shanghai is not uncommon. I do agree though that the Canadian governments need to do something about their housing crisis in their cities or else they'll end up in a similar situation as China is in.
So would it be right to say that initiatives like these (which allow for extremely low rent costs but extremely high purchase costs) alleviate homelessness but reinforce class divides? Im trying to get a good sense on why the CCP isnt immediately concerned with the ability for people to purchase homes outright. If its the case that china has virtually eliminated homelessness and thus homes are viewed as strictly a luxury good then that would help explain it. Also can you tell me more about what it means to own a home in china? I know that the government is fairly involved in stuff like that so is owning a home similar to how it is in the US/west or does it look different? Lastly can you tell me how much of their income each month is used for rent relative to food and relative to other expenses/saving? Sorry to ask so much of you in a youtube comment section lmao.
As for the extreme lengths people are going to to buy property, in some cities there’s a limit on how much property a couple can own, so some people get legally divorced so that they can buy more property together
@@fakecubed actually that’s a bit of a complicated subject. China has always operated in a legal gray area. There is a law against pretty much anything but they very rarely enforce it unless it benefits them. It also lets them essentially clamp down on anything at any time. So that means that if you were to follow every single one, really do anything, so people generally ignore a law unless it is being clamped down on at that certain point in time.
"...one of its develiopers had increased its sales target by 23%." That developer was the Evergrande corporation, which now looks to be on the verge of financial collapse.
That’s not true. The real fact is government owns the land where your apartments sit on. And the lease of the land is 99 years. In practice, this means if your apartments have not been damaged, you can pay a fee to extend the lease of the lands, or move your apartments somewhere else, or government buys your apartment so you can buy a new one at other place where new land lease is available. In any case, government does not own the apartments, only the land.
@@sumonechan8514 The rent amount is deiced by the government, or contract??? Who would enforce and judge the contract? Who guarantees the right to rent it... the Chinese government? Do you trust the Chinese government?
@@6789uiop You are just making a straw man's argument at this point. If the Chinese government can do whatever they want without facing any consequences like you hinted, then they DON'T have to wait for 70 years. They can just take over all the houses right now and no one will be buying or own another any property because these will be worthless. Did any of these happen in reality? Heck, the OPPOSITE is happening in reality. It's apparent that people don't think it's that much of a concern.
Same practises are happening in India, where people invest in more than one properties where they don't even live at for a potential higher return for the same house - only if it's sold, otherwise it's money lost!!
But I don't think India suffers the same problem as China. Even though many people buy more than one property, there are no peopleless homes here. People migrate to the urban areas and rent these homes. At least, this is as per my knowledge. I don't know much, please correct me if I'm wrong
@@prathamyadav2508 obsession with owning more than one house and earning rent is age old phenomena in south asian house holds where that money could have gone to starting new business and creating employment. This is pretty common in Nepal, I am not sure in India.
Agree with the video mostly. but I find it strange that you leave out one of the most crucial factor why house price is so high. IT COST NOTHING to maintain the house. China has no property tax. Means there is literally no cost to maintain such large amount of properties. The government once they levy tax on property especially on the non-first property. I suspect the price will drop drastically, due to then it will cost significant amount of money to maintain these extra properties. But since the population has grown accustomed to no property tax. It might have huge backlash. But it is something the Government will HAVE to do if they want to contain this and have sustainable tax income. The fact is the average joes of China pays almost no tax and that creates a problem for the country in the long run.
Also there is nothing about rent. What does chinesse do with all these bought 0-tax property? Is there some forces to keep property empty instead of lending, returning it to supply side? If these additinal bought properties are really empty, property tax or other wise policies will increase supply in market by literally many dozens times. All these additional properties is just deffered supply time bomb.
Land in China is technically leased from the government for a very long term, with the "rent" paid up front - that's what the land sales basically are. At the end of the lease term you theoretically would have to renew the lease from the government, and they can probably ask quite a lot based on value, but the question is whether anyone will actually be able to pay the price that's required to maintain the solvency of the local governments. Having people pay the taxes/rent from the government every year makes a whole lot more sense in financial planning for civic expenditures. And of course, the leases have to time out, which might take a while...
@@stevenglowacki8576 Do you know renew lease almost cost nothing for residential area? Government has specifically said private non commercial will just be rolled over with minor fees paid kind of like license fee renewal
@@nzho013 Thank you for that information. I was only familiar with the general system, having researched it for a school project several years ago (which was actually on a totally different topic, but understanding China's land policy was integral to one of my major points).
Some forms of property taxes are being discussed. And with the catastrophic collapse of Evergrande, maybe they'll be needed, since provinces won't have the chance to raise money from "leasing" land.
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@@SnowyButterfly1 I agree. This is one of the reasons why I will never move back to China, but I am willing to visit relatives there. I am an ardent opponent of censorship.
I'm a long-time follower and, in my modest opinion, you've grown to become the best quality content producer. Apart from the interesting topics and your strong analytical spirit (whatever the final result maybe), your infographics also are extremely well thought!
Incredibly accurate video. I tried so hard to convince my parents to not buy their THIRD home in china especially since we all live overseas and hardly go back, but it’s so embedded in their heads that they sold one of their retail stores to pay the down payment for the apartment... This was late 2019, the apartment already lost 10% of it’s value coz of covid, meanwhile I invested in Sasol last match and got 500% returns...
Idk man, yeah the real estate was bad but holding onto retail isn't exactly smart either. The world's already hooked on e-commerce. No need to be stuck in the past.
This is a real issue - the utterly entrenched need, desire, belief, that unbreakable feeling they need to buy as many houses as possible. They cannot stop themselves. I see this with nearly every Mainland Chinese who is around 40+ years old to around 65 years and its just an unbreakable addiction-like thinking no matter what. On the bright side, I have noticed more younger people like yourself are far more skeptical, open-minded, are not intensely ram-rod minded about this idea.
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@@bobfty2680 The irony is that many American men are seeking foreign women. And that is being driven by cultural aspects that have been incubating since the 1980s.
as a sino-spaniard, seeing the vacancy rate of spain at almost 30% made me grin. we beraly can afford rent and we cant afford a house with 30% empty houses. 2008 hit us like a truck with coicidentally the house market crash of usa and spain at the same time. leaving me paying my parentss house that we bought pre 2008. i can beraly pay it and will leave me without house for me. Im always surprised seeing chinese family buying homes after 2008, most of my family members knows about the 2008 bubble crash but they keep investing in them. anyway, be ready for the next market crash, it will affect it globally
@@tijldeclerck7772 Probably like most places it also struggles with developers buying up places to perpetually rent them and jacking up prices even if nobody buys in to maintain perceived value. That and turning stuff into hotels n shit
When people buy houses that they’ll never live in so housing prices are higher than they should be, causing financial problems for poorer families looking to buy.
I dont know how chinese houses are financed but wont that eventually lead to massive depreciating of housing prices which would cause morgages to go underwater? Kinda like 2008 crisis?
@@robertjonker8131 It's already starting to happen. A friend of mine there is panic-selling two of their houses in their hometown and trying to buy a house in Canada, instead.
Guys these houses are built to gather wealth for the family, so there is no poor people. I think the state lease model of Japan works quite well for Asian countries because if you let them Asian families will buy a bunch of houses and just live off the passive income.
@Pui Yue It doesn't matter. You still didn't name the country with 90% income tax rate. Taxing rates are not some secret info - it's official policy than you can find on government site. If you believe in some bullshit info from "cool youtubers" - it's your problem, not mine) I don't need to go to a lawyer to know such type of data.
As a Chinese, I could say that these are all true. Actually it is surprising that some foreigners could reveal so many details and all the aspects of the problem. Great video!!
@@cashmoney2159 Younger girls are relatively less materialistic. Then they are influenced by parents (asian parents..you know), and finally all of them would take the house as one of the most important factor when they choose a partner. So young man could have girlfriend, for example, in the university, but getting married is another story.
@@cashmoney2159 Living with parents is never the first option worldwide right?? Theoretically they could do this, but it makes them look poor, so the girls would not show any interest towards them.
@@chizhang1918 Damn that’s sort of fucked usually over here it’s considered normal to live with your parents for a few years and then you eventually pay for a house later in your years which you pay of fully in the future. What happens if you get married to a girl from another country wouldn’t that drastically lower the need for a house? Your English is really good so I reckon you could do just that.
As Chinese myself, I would say this is the most accurate and unbiased (like all your videos) diagnosis of the problem on UA-cam. The "two sessions" national meetings just ended last week and had two major topics. One is renewable energy, the other one is to deleverage the economy and control the housing problem. Let's hope their plan works.
I agree, many exciting reforms are coming, and I am also interested to see how the huge post COVID stimulus package in the next 5 years will change these problems.
As a Chinese American, even Chinese here (and ones not from the Mainland) people still love their real estate. It's like stocks but less likely to crash than stocks.
Jesus Christ is returning soon. Repent (turn around from your ungodly ways) and believe the Gospel. For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life. John 3:16
They kind of don’t. Mao kind of screwed them by offering utopian ideas without also reframing the social class structure to value the weakest in the collective when there wasn’t an attrition of war or plague to reduce the population, or provide a motive to protect against corruption and exploitation. The projection of strength also means the projection of weakness and the chaos of destructive power in forcing people to carry the burdens of others so others and leaders can be stronger. To live well and fear people with all the answers. There will be a swathe of unemployed or loosely employed by a government / military force (to hide the unemployment numbers) who have nothing to offer for millions, except for lottery or hope draws to keep the 500:1 men to women from leaving. There are likely urban areas and towns with no single women below 50 years of age, no newborn girls, and dying farm / primary production of livestock. It would not surprise me if war and plague comes back with a strangely expensive, more lethal mutation and curative that requires middle class resources and select cities to distribute around January next year. Or worst case, the three rivers dam bursts or is sabotaged, affecting hundreds of millions of people, and the worlds economy soon afterwards.
@@daxtynminn3415 I mean it, China's doomsday prediction has been around for more than 30 years yet China is becoming increasingly prosperous and powerful. We need doomsday advocators to remind us of our problems and camouflage our rise in power, so that hostile powers do not pose serious troubles when we are dealing with internal structural problems. That is definitely a favourable thing for China!
@@antonfeng1434 Dude, I want you to take a look at China’s demographic pyramid they are about to be a retirement home buddy. While your at it look at a chart of favorability around the world for China 10 years ago and now. Chinas economic bubble is just getting bigger and bigger which means when it finally hits it will hit much harder. China’s collapse is not if it’s when and for how long.
Well at this point, china is that one silent kid that anti social that when he bring a gun to the school for shutting up the bullies you won't really really surprised. Just a reminder that they literally won't and never forget what atrocities your ancestors did to them and they want vengeance.
@@peacechan4500 Given how they treat their own minorities, i think they are less the silent kid, and more the abusive husband letting all its anger out on its wife and kids while pretending to be amazing to everyone outside its apartment.
Yeah...as long as we are no living in China there's nothing to worry about. Just ready your popcorn and enjoy the drama when the bubble finally burst. Covid-19 is actually a blessing in disguise. It ready and mentally condition us to face a world of economic armageddon when these massive bubble burst. The shockwave will go as far as into US, Europe and every other countries within the belt and road sphere of influence.
Bubbles really only pop when the first person goes to sell and can't. Housing is viewed as safe and stable. So why would the Pandemic take it down? The problem will only come when someone who needs cash in order to retire tries to sell a property and suddenly can't find a buyer.
@@lsd310 Idk about Taiwan but I know SK’s growth has mostly been driven by foreign buyers and declining interest rates adjusting the lease conversion rate
@@guacre2675 you are being silly or butt hurt over something. Of course they can create a new channel on this idea and of course other countries problems can be just as enlightening when broken down. I'm going to need you to get way off my back...
I'm actually curious. How many of them are actually occupied (either owner occupied or rented out)? I'm guessing the demand in places like Shanghai would probably keep it occupied more than the average stats.
@@wr85487 The demand for house in big cities in China is still pretty strong (at least top 10 cities I think?), and the real problem there is only the price, which is also a kind of method to control the population of these biggest cities. There are a lot of people owning many houses (even for mid class), and treat these estates as investment by solding or renting it later. As in the video, the house vacancy problem is familiar in smaller places, and the house price there tend to dicline these years. Now holding the high level of house price in big cities and deflating in small cities seem to be the method being used by the gov to break that house market bubble.
@@CriativesTier you can argue that, but it doesnt dismiss any of their history for being of little value. Its economy, politics and demographic issues and solutions are a goldmine of knownedge
I just want to mention how incredibly effective and compelling the introduction is at painting this unsettling and eerie picure of a city where the only thing that seems to be missing are the people it was built for. It exposes the disturbing dissonance quite well in my opinion, and almost sounds like the beginning of a chilling mystery novel.
Nope. mostly due to Trade, and defense. that area is very busy and as well as it is one of their most vulnerable area due to the fact no one really likes china in that area and philippines is a very very close ally of the americans..well at least not in duterte admin (for now~). they have no natural defenses there other than typhoons xD another vulnerable spot is east china sea. between them and japan
Living in Shanghai was fascinating. The women I worked with were able to negotiate for houses... until they turned 27 and lost a significant part of their bargaining power (at which point, if they were still unmarried, had to settle for a man that only owned one house). The ones who had surgically enhanced themselves to look like anime characters were demanding that their potential husband own at least 3 houses and sign a prenup that would give them half of everything in case of a divorce. And they would get it. Marriage in Shanghai was 100% a business deal.
@@DonnieDarko1 I just noticed that men were, in general, 100% focused on making as much money as possible so they could afford a "hot" (read: surgically enhanced) wife, and women were absolutely paranoid about turning 27 before finding a rich husband. There were occasional exceptions to this behavior, as there are anywhere, and those people ended up becoming friends.
@@DavidGravesExists yes, I've heard of this "left over women" but I suspect this behavior /selection process isn't just unique to Asian women. As I'm learning through others online, this phenomenon is quite evident everywhere and may very well be biological in nature serving important evolutionary strategy.
So, let me get this straight, if prices go up, they’re screwed, and if they go down, they’re screwed. So in other words they’re damned if they do, damned if they don’t? Am I missing something here or not?
No, that's pretty much it. It's incredibly overvalued and has received insanely heavy investment because people think it's (government) guaranteed to rise more. If it goes up, you get more problems (affordability and even more overvalued) When it goes down, you'll get a combination of panic spurring more sales and people who might have purchased holding off until they get a better deal. Which in turn means that masses of people are left with something that took their life savings that's not worth what they paid for it, and a huge portion of the economy suddenly gone to nothing because why would you build more houses when prices are crashing? All of which impacts the rest of the economy. Like with the one child policy, this is a problem they've allowed to get so massive the only real solution involves time travel.
@@idromano I had an Audible account for 1 month, the access to my *downloaded* audio books just popped out of existence. They weren't saved as audio files (mp3, wav, whatever) on my device but as something only the app could read and only would if you were logged in with a still-paying account. Yeah, you only "own" them as long as you keep paying, so you have them on rent, basically.
After finishing this video, here's the next part: ua-cam.com/video/nRUc4gTO-PE/v-deo.html
Ah, houses. Very nice.
Ok China daddy
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Watched part 1 already, thanks though!
I also very much like your videos and have no doubt I will like this one.
Alternative title: Why China is actually a real estate company, and what that means for investors.
Next video on Wendover: The insane engineering of a china shaped airplane
Next video on Half as interesting: the logistics of starting your own China
@Spatza are you replying to someone who's now gone or did you just say this for no reason
@@no-np8dw I first noticed that sort of opening comment on Reddit when the app came out.
no Sam from Wendover would just try to create a aircraft out of China in it's total.
mean while Sam from HAI will try to bring bricks in to the mix.
@@sirBrouwer China and it's dependence on bricks?
@@kairon156 sounds like a HAI topic yes.
the real question is how is the CIA involved in it?
This video nailed the current situation 18 months before it began.
That's why I came back to it. Now I'm binge watching the other ones to see what's next.
You'll like Peter Zeihan too because he's been saying much of this 4 part series for quite a while now (just with a more snarky, chirpy, GenX geopolitical spin). PolyMatter avoids the sarcasm.
now government is putting planned economy like policies in real estate, huge restrictions on property sellers reducing prices
This is happening, to a lesser degree, all around the world.
I live in São Paulo, Brazil, and and many appartments here, especially in the historic center are unnocupied, because people buy them only as a investment for especulation, and don't actually move. On the last election, one of our candidates for mayor was really concerned by that, he even stated that São Paulo "Has more peopleless homes than homeless people", which is quite brutal if you think about it.
It seem property tax and insurance must be low.
People-less homes sound so much sader than homeless people.
Homeless people still have a purpose: beg enough to survive another day.
People-less homes? They are just waiting to crumple.
Poor people-less homes.
😥😥😥
That is because the money supply is too high, now more than ever with the covid but it began in 2008 (central banks call it quantitative easing). That means interest rates are very low and investors are looking for safer and low-risk investments than they used too because the reward are not worth it anymore for "normal" investments (like companies). What is the safest market to see your assets grow steadily over a decade or so nowadays ? Housing is the answer. Appart from the big investors normal people just trust more the housing market than the stock market and you can't blame them for that. Since urbanization is growing and the countryside is dying (at least in the west) housing prices would have rose prices in cities automatically.
I am no expert on the subjet and I probably made a few mistakes but that is what I understand from it. The financial system is fucked (and China is not an exception here) and both people and big investors need to look for safe investments that will grow no matter the economic downturns.
@@fr-mk7gh
You might not be an expert, but you speak a lot more common sense than most experts I've listened to.
I'm a nutter.
I invest in the Bible.
My reasoning being that since Jesus told me to store up my Treasures in the Heavens, and not down here on the earth, because moth and rust consume the treasures on the earth, and thieves dig through and steal, and apparently, Malachi 3:10 says the interest rates are amazing in that if I just hand over the tithes I'm supposed to pay in full, God will open up some windows in heaven so that so many blessings will Flood into my stores so that there is no longer room to hold it, it kinda made sense to me (I'm no expert either. I'm sure my dad knows more than me.) So I just kinda went with it. It's kinda working out for me so far.
Not saying I've got a house or anything.
But so far, even though in theory, I should have starved or died or something, I'm still very much alive. And well. And somehow happier than the people with 5 properties. They keep talking and complaining about the repairs and finding suitable tenants and the maintenance and the mortgage rates and stuff I don't understand too much, because I've never done that stuff.
But yeah, I've got a nutty fiscal policy. But I guess, if it works, it works, right? It feels like one of those crazy situations where I'm only flying because I'm aiming to hit the ground and missing.
But there you go. Have a good day, sir!
CN housing crisis is absurd tho .. the housing bubble has become one of the biggest economies in CN if I'm not mistaken
hell，as a Chinese citizen, i have to say this is the first foreign video i saw that mentioned the role that local governments played in this mad real estate market, how they sell public land and all those empty companies. you really know about China.
Anyways, I'm curious; how much does is the average rent there though?
You're not Chinese and all your upvotes are from Indians/ whites lmao
@@NightcorEDM No joking bro, grew up in Sichuan Mianyang, attended the college in Wuhan, never being abroad for once, 100% native Chinese.
@@NightcorEDM 兄弟如果你是国人的话，我确实不了解其他地方的情况，但我老家（四川的）县城县政府卖地情况确实严重，连几个卫生院的地都全部卖了，确实让人担心以后我们这儿地方财政怎么还，还是希望中央能管管地方这些行为，还是希望纪委能来带走几个当官的
@@rickv9180 It depends, in big cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, rent can be incredibly high, like 4000 yuan(about 650 dollars) for 50 square-meters, But it is much lower in small cities.
You know what. As someone who likes Gengis Khan Mausoleons, and doesn´t particularly like people, I´d like to spend some time in that city.
China ironically made the best city for us introverts. Idc if it lacks a lot of things, no people, i take.
I like genghis Khan because he was good at getting rid of people
@@sirsurnamethefirstofhisnam7986 but tbf the mongols also made a lot of people
YES!!! CHyna is finally going to collapse THIS TIME FOR REAL and I'm so f*ckn excited!! Abd you heard it first here from the one and only Polymatter this channel is historic
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@@GL-iv4rw I don’t understand why the failure of a country it’s exciting to you. That’s psychopathic behavior.
As a Chinese, I have to say the "China's Reckoning" series are incredible videos, especially Part 1 and Part 2, which are the most critical problems in current China. But it's really hard to solve them in a short time.
Hello! its honestly suprising to see someone actually suffering these problems for once. Id really like to hear more about what you think about these problens and these videos.
I hate the CCP but got love for the Chinese people
@@roberttorres8477 same
The particular issue is not China specific but the magnitude and associated problems related to government are, and clearly an issue with government. Perhaps we are beginning to see the limits of authoritarian command, which works to catch up to the world economic leaders, but not to become an economic leader. The same thing was the case with the Soviet Union.
you watch youtube ? -1000 social credit score
The potential collapse of Evergrande, one of China's largest property developers, is happening. What happens to this complex network of economic and social webs then?
man this is funny
Cameo at 21:00, lol.
Everything about China is merely a cardboard facade, it's never surprise for us Asian about China, and that's the reason whenever they're capable of they'll flock out of the country.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer group of people .
This video is sizing up to be a crystal ball of the future by the rate its going
As a foreigner married to a Chinese woman and living in China for years, I can confirm the obsession with housing. Literally 99% of women and their families will not have a marriage until the have their own house. It's madness but it has its reasons.
I see lots of foreigners get into serious relationships with girls and then when this comes up during marriage conversations, everything falls apart because they can't buy a house. Luckily for me it worked because my wife's family bought a second house for when she would get married.
Basically, the obsession comes from the fact that landlords constantly push out their renters with little to no notice in order to sell their property. Like you can be living in your apartment under a year lease and suddenly the landlord tells you that you have 10 days to leave and the ONLY way out of this is to actual own the place you live in. So Chinese families look for a stable place to live.
Sounds like the strict pro-tenant laws of the more liberal areas in the US are actually useful in some regard. China has such a huge love of home-ownership that they basically provide no protection for renters. It's absolutely impossible most everywhere around here to kick someone out of their home in less than a month, even if they're not paying rent, simply because the government has recognized how difficult it can be to move on short notice. China's government seems less concerned with the citizens' welfare, what a shock.
@@stevenglowacki8576 pro tenant laws are terrible in the us. all these people taking advantage of it.
@@stevenglowacki8576 China Government won't let 0.3% of its people die from a controllable disease.
@@holyender515 It goes both ways; some tenants do abuse these laws, but these laws also prevent abuse by landlords. When neither option is perfect, I don't see a problem with erring on the side of helping the people with less power.
That's not true anymore some say the opposite is true... Today there are more stories of potential Chinese wives not marrying somebody because they own one of these empty apartment building that's losing money...
Anyone else already HYPED for the next video
@Spatza what is this?
Absolutely! I was stoked when I saw that part 2 was up.
@@simulify8726 it's a bot
water wars
YES!!! CHyna is finally going to collapse THIS TIME FOR REAL and I'm so f*ckn excited!! Abd you heard it first here from the one and only Polymatter this channel is historic
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As a Chinese person -- yup. My family and all the families I know are obsessed with owning real estate.
But what is the end goal? If the investment property is empty, how do you get your money out?
What happens when a huge chunk of the population goes into retirement and there’s nobody to rent these houses?
Doesn’t it end up as a black hole for Chinese personal savings?
@@rsjmail exactly Richard. It’s ends up being a false economy.
@@rsjmail Didn't u watch the video? Its not about getting the money back, its about reputation
@@rsjmail it's about reputation, I'm indian and it's same here.
@@matty6848 I think 2000-2008 America knows something about that sort of economy 🤔
Demographic collapse was the kidneys, housing crisis is the liver.
Part 3 is the heart, which means juicier than part 1 and 2! Also, part 3 yay!
The demographic organ alone is a death blow. Wonder what heart is?
@@everythingisfine9988 water?
@@everythingisfine9988 Developed countries like Korea, Singapore and Japan now face this demographic crisis
@@prasoongupta12 id say a combination of lack of all resources, water and soon maybe even food and production materials if Chinas imports cant keep up after possible political isolation. But thats a guess
well demographic collapse can be solve by robot and automation
As someone who grew up in china, I’m extreme impressed by the level of details and accuracy of the information you presented. It in fact helped me put the puzzle together to have a better understanding of china. Mad respect.
South Park is banned in China...🍯🐻🧸
And on today's episode of "I cannot beleive I am watching this for free".
EDIT: I understand I am paying with my personal information and ads.
He IS on Nebula, also 😉
But yeah, he pushes out excellent content, it's crazy!
UA-cam is a fantastic place when the censors aren’t around
Everything's free when you're a pirate...
@@ahsonyousef4636 Do what you want because a pirate is free!
When it’s free, *you* are the product.
The one child policy has become the slowest and the most painful time bomb for China.
they can defuse it by fully automated it's factory or just hire a migrant worker in south east asia
YES!!! CHyna is finally going to collapse THIS TIME FOR REAL and I'm so f*ckn excited!! Abd you heard it first here from the one and only Polymatter this channel is historic
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The current birth rate still gives it 15 million newborns per year. At least China should not have the unemployment problems that India has which is a far more serious problem.
@@GL-iv4rw yeah bro can’t wait its gonna be so dope
yeah good for them. Lowering their population to improve quality of life
You just can't beat the quality of Polymatter's video on UA-cam.
I love this channel.
i know right?
Facts in motion or Kurzgesagt have comparable if not higher level of quality.
@@meneither3834 Polymater is almost a 1 man show while kurzgesagt is an entire team. Pretty remarkable if you ask me.
@@meneither3834 Their videos are not as interesting anymore.
@@notsoma which leaves facts in motion.
There's nothing wrong in China. Everything is fine. The economy is perfect and everyone is happy. This according to the CCP and not to be questioned.
+100 social credit
Someone got their social credit bumped up.
Everything is awesome!!
There is no war in ba sing se
Please report the names of anyone showing negativity toward or disbelief in China. Community social workers would like to help them become better informed.
"China's vacancy rates are through the roof"
9:30
Spain: "Watch and learn 😎"
Your country has made it too good for other Europeans to buy a second home there or go into hiding at the Costa del Sol haha
@Sc0ut Op sorry i am not gonna explain an inside joke :)
Classic socilismt polítics.
@@alejandroalvarezvaldivia2964 I assume you are talking about the socialist party, which ironically hasn't been socialist since a century ago
To be fair a lot of these homes are vacation homes. I would like know how high that number is once you substrate home that are vacant most of the year but not all the time.
Wendover Productions: Airplanes
Real Life Lore: Toyota Corolla
PolyMatter: China
@RoastWorthy I thought that dude was into Norway
HAI: Bricks
Infographic Show: serial killers
Kurzgesagt: explosions
JYNA
Kalashnikov : ak rifles
"The best birth control is the housing price." - Chinese Internauts
a better answer would be the 'living expenditure'. In China, not only the housing price but also some costs like medicare, education costs together with relatively lower wages. China became rich, but the people are not.
And long working hours.
@@baosha6275 excuse me, I am chinese, and I became rich tho, real rich, and my parents were poor famers xd
@@alisonlaw8768 *UNPAID* overtimes
@@jacobbai9619 what can one individual example represent? If there’s a killer in China means all Chinese are killer?
My wifes family (Chinese) just bought their 3rd house… just because. My mother in law wanted me to pay too, told her im not paying because im not gonna live there. Needless to say she isnt so happy with me right now 😂. Im happy with my own house
It happens in China? Or another country?
@@cheesemccheese5780 almost everyone in chyna know about vpn and most uses vpn their govt don't care about ban or not
Sorry bro but I call bull ..does your wife know your username lol are you even married 😂
My parents just bought the 8th apartment just China
Your parents just bought me my 69th condo in China
Housing price in Beijing is higher than SF bay area. But the average monthly income in Beijing is less than $2000. Even if you earn $30000 monthly, you cannot afford a condo in Beijing. It's absurd.
Kind of Sounds like Japan in the 80s before their lost decade. At one time, the land on which the Imperial Palace was on was worth more than the property value of the entire state of California.
You mean inner circle of Beijing? Outer circle isn't that expensive to be honest.
@@leezhieng Condos in inner circle of Beijing is $2000 per square foot. Condos in outer are mostly over $1000 per square foot. Single-family houses are insanely expensive.
@@ShusenWang square FOOT, not sq meter?
@@6789uiop price per sq meter is $10K ~ $20K
Watching Evergrande implode, I thought I'd revisit this video
They're selling 1.5 billion of stake in Shengjing bank to a state firm
@@109reaper probably indirect bailout
haha yea watching this video for the first time and it seems almost prophetic
I was thinking the exact same thing funny how he says we're wrong to think of china as a cardboard box. It is. It's called Tofu Buildings. It literally is made out of Cardboard quality materials.
I wonder what if Polymatter talk about China Military
I’m curious how Polymatter would get info on China’s military.
I’ve watched a couple foreign creators on China and I have some suspicious of their capabilities.
@Spatza what does that have to do with anything
[Redacted]
@@ianlopez5108 they're baiting
@@JohnKuang-rf6fb
I hope they are as unbiased as they can be...
I’ll add this link here separately to you.
Edit: UA-cam tends to eat certain links but I’m just looking at this scam. I’m sure China has upgraded their military but I’m also wondering if they didn’t plan for sustainable of their military.
The semiconductor scam is why I’m wondering it more.
Watching this again in September as the 'bubble' is bursting..... You do great work PolyMatter, keep it up
I've sat for hours unable to do a project I'm getting paid for but clicked this video faster than my mind was capable of recognizing
Very natural
The world is deterministic. Your whole life led you to that moment.
For real. Please tell me to get my work done!
@@Squang. get you work done quang do you want to wash dishes forever
@@marcusp9288 mariners? Seattle gang!
a less extreme version of this affects almost every major city in the world. Toronto and Vancouver are full of newly built empty condos owned by foreign investors
Chinese investors*
No need to beat around the bush
Justin Trudeau is completely in bed with Chinese company's and investors, you shouldn't expect any less from him. welcome the new chinadia.
Really make you think if free market has gone too free
Except the stats don't back that up. Something like 97%+ of Vancouver home sales are to Canadians.
@@JonMartinYXD "Canadians", AKA chinese who bought their PR, or chinese with Canadian relatives
12:43 anyone else impressed by the old Chinese men casually doing chin-ups and flips?
Yes - I bet Xi Jinping can't do that!
They are actually Chinese Olympic gymnasts pretending to be old men, nothing in China is what it seems....
@@peterbeyer5755 Chinese Olympic gymnasts are usually 6-8 years old though ...
@@peterbeyer5755 The hell you talking about? They’re clearly old yet active, are you saying that any old looking people that are doing exercise are gymnast pretending to be old?
@@evelynfarfellwooosh1219 You clearly didnt get the joke.
Tesla: Bubble
Bitcoin: Bubble pro
Us debt: Bubble pro Max
China: father of all bubbles
Lol
In the short term Tesla is 100% a bubble but over the long term it isn't.
@@cheesemccheese5780 I agree. but you buy a dozen egg for 2.5$ which is today's price not 10$ which maybe 2030's price of eggs
I always say the same
@@cheesemccheese5780 Might very well be, as other manufacturers catch up. Tesla knows about electric cars, but it doesn't have the knowledge and experience about support systems, driving experience, and long time support that established car makers have. Whether Tesla will crumble as electric cars become mainstream depends on how well which manufacturer will be able to leverage its assets. Time will tell.
Wow now even polymatter starts to give us homework
And yet I like it....
Telling you to buy his book.
@@animewatch4213 it's not his.
Homework for hope is a fair trade
@HARRY POTTER AND CURSED CHILD Pretty much all UA-camrs have affiliate links and paid promotions, I don't understand your complaint.
This is like when a Minecraft server of 8 people makes a massive, cool city but it’s empty because there’s nobody occupying anything
This type of western propaganda has been going on for decades. It's easily debunked by a reality check on the ground. The most frequently used example is the ghost city of Xinzheng. It's now a vibrant city of 6 million residents. There're fundamental differences between how China and the rest of the world works.
@@littledovecitydust china's just built different
@@littledovecitydust but the source came from the Chinese
@@littledovecitydust "western propaganda"
*Proceeds to believe Chinese propaganda*
@@Admiral_Jezza "Proceeds to believe Chinese propaganda" - #citationneeded. Source? Or did you just magically read his mind?
March 2021 (14:42): “A sudden and rapid fall in prices is the worst-case scenario. More than a few experts argue this is far from inevitable, and there are credible reasons to think China is not about to experience another 2008.”
August 2022: “Oh, crap.”
Tens of Millions of Chinese are just saying “Fuck yo bullshit ass banks I ain’t paying my mortgage!”
The cascade effect has already started hitting the banks and it’s expected to be a 600 Billion USD affair.
Oof.
You know, the inventory has been building there for the past decade and it started to seem like it would go on forever, somehow. People would buy unlivable apartments and flip the for massive profits year after year. The party is finally over.
This video hasn't aged well, alas. Evergrande is bankrupt and house prices are now declining.
what's the situation like now? Seems to have stabilized
I watched this 6 months ago, and now Chinese developer Evergrand is less than 2 weeks from insolvency. The bubble is about to pop over there in a way that makes the US housing crisis of 2008 look like nothing. Property values will crash and with some people "owning" 2-4 homes the supply of property will far outpace demand.
1,5 million people risked losing all of their deposit, jesus christ.
@@mystomachhurt9312 Deserved. They bought presale homes and doing housing speculations, which is no different than investing in a stock market. They took the risk then they should bear the consequences.
@@shinqqing5161 Uh, not all are trying to speculate. Many are purchasing their first homes. And this is NOT like the stock market. People gave their money to Evergrande so evergrande could build them a house. In other words they paid for a service that they are not going to get.
the housing prices are still stable now.😂😭
@@terracecar1 it’s a slow moving car crash. It’s not getting better.
I would just like to thank you for being one of the only channels on UA-cam to give China the coverage it deserves. I find the country deeply fascinating, and the influence of China is undeniable given its population and economy, but it is strangely difficult to find coverage of it that delves into the complexities of the country; that's why I love that whenever I come to your channel I know I'm about to learn about something truly interesting in a way that tries to unpack the nuance and complexities that shape China and its role in the world. Keep up the good work, both when it comes to China coverage, and all the other things you bring up!
A little hard to cover something when the authoritarian regime running it keeps a tight lid on everything, no?
YES!!! CHyna is finally going to collapse THIS TIME FOR REAL and I'm so f*ckn excited!! Abd you heard it first here from the one and only Polymatter this channel is historic
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@@GL-iv4rw yes and taiwan will be forcibly reunited today...again😂
@@nmslesecnmbese917 I have a better one: Taiwan will declare its independence from China LOL
@@c.santibanezsoto Taiwan is already independent from China.
Can Confirm. My grandparents live in China, and they rent a 150 sq.m (1600 sq. ft) 3bd. 2ba. apartment in a small town of a few hundred thousand people in Fujian. If they were to have bought the apartment outright, it would've cost the equivalent of about USD180,000; meanwhile, their monthly rent is only $250. That's a Price to Rent Ratio of 60, and prices are still skyrocketing while rents have barely moved; for context, a Price to Rent of 21 and above means that it's cheaper to rent than to own, under 15 means it's cheaper to own than to rent, and 15-20 means it's about the same. From a financial perspective, it makes no sense to buy a home in China.
It really puts things in perspective when you realize a city with hundreds of thousands of people is considered just a small town in China (Meanwhile I live in Lake City, the biggest settlement in Columbia County, FL, and we only have 12,000🤣!).
$180,000 isn't bad. You should how much apartments cost in Canada. $400,000 for a unit the same size as your parents.
@@Idontwantahandle6669 I should put into context though that this $180k for a 150 sq. m. 3bd. 2ba. is in Anhai Township in Fujian Province, a small, relatively rural town in a not too wealthy province. It's the equivalent of some rural town of 5-10 thousand people in Manitoba. An apartment similar to theirs in a city like Beijing or Shanghai will easily cost over a million USD, $750,000 for a 90 sq. m. apartment in Shanghai is not uncommon. I do agree though that the Canadian governments need to do something about their housing crisis in their cities or else they'll end up in a similar situation as China is in.
@@Idontwantahandle6669 Those are rookie numbers in these parts. Gotta get those numbers up
So would it be right to say that initiatives like these (which allow for extremely low rent costs but extremely high purchase costs) alleviate homelessness but reinforce class divides? Im trying to get a good sense on why the CCP isnt immediately concerned with the ability for people to purchase homes outright. If its the case that china has virtually eliminated homelessness and thus homes are viewed as strictly a luxury good then that would help explain it.
Also can you tell me more about what it means to own a home in china? I know that the government is fairly involved in stuff like that so is owning a home similar to how it is in the US/west or does it look different?
Lastly can you tell me how much of their income each month is used for rent relative to food and relative to other expenses/saving? Sorry to ask so much of you in a youtube comment section lmao.
As for the extreme lengths people are going to to buy property, in some cities there’s a limit on how much property a couple can own, so some people get legally divorced so that they can buy more property together
Corruption and disregard for the law among the general populace are also big indicators of a collapse coming.
@@fakecubed actually that’s a bit of a complicated subject. China has always operated in a legal gray area. There is a law against pretty much anything but they very rarely enforce it unless it benefits them. It also lets them essentially clamp down on anything at any time. So that means that if you were to follow every single one, really do anything, so people generally ignore a law unless it is being clamped down on at that certain point in time.
@@fakecubed Tell that to the americans lol
Some areas have started clamping down on the practice: www.sixthtone.com/news/1006909/china-finds-a-culprit-for-runaway-house-prices-divorcing-couples
@@therealchristian1 Can't agree more, Are you chinese? Your comments are very insightful.
"...one of its develiopers had increased its sales target by 23%."
That developer was the Evergrande corporation, which now looks to be on the verge of financial collapse.
HAI: Bad jokes
Wendover: Airplanes
Polymatter: China
All the same man kappa
This comment is on every video made by all 3 channels. Try something new.
I need one for trains :(
What is HAI
unsub from wendover, too boring
I could imagine China imposing a "you can have as many children as you have homes"
It should be the other way - you can have as many homes as you have children. haha
This aged well
@@ken23800 yeah, but, unfortunately it won't work
wow,i have no home,so i may have no child,lol,i have no girlfriend ,either
@@yuluoxianjun You have no problems lol
China home ownership is mostly 99 year LEASES.
Government keeps the property after the 99 years.
That’s not true. The real fact is government owns the land where your apartments sit on. And the lease of the land is 99 years. In practice, this means if your apartments have not been damaged, you can pay a fee to extend the lease of the lands, or move your apartments somewhere else, or government buys your apartment so you can buy a new one at other place where new land lease is available. In any case, government does not own the apartments, only the land.
That's not true at all. After 70 years the occupiers pay rental fee every year to the government to extend the lease.
@@sumonechan8514 in the USA we have high property taxes, so you don't really own anything the USA either, it's a joke.
@@sumonechan8514 The rent amount is deiced by the government, or contract???
Who would enforce and judge the contract?
Who guarantees the right to rent it... the Chinese government?
Do you trust the Chinese government?
@@6789uiop You are just making a straw man's argument at this point.
If the Chinese government can do whatever they want without facing any consequences like you hinted, then they DON'T have to wait for 70 years. They can just take over all the houses right now and no one will be buying or own another any property because these will be worthless.
Did any of these happen in reality? Heck, the OPPOSITE is happening in reality. It's apparent that people don't think it's that much of a concern.
Same practises are happening in India, where people invest in more than one properties where they don't even live at for a potential higher return for the same house - only if it's sold, otherwise it's money lost!!
But I don't think India suffers the same problem as China. Even though many people buy more than one property, there are no peopleless homes here. People migrate to the urban areas and rent these homes. At least, this is as per my knowledge. I don't know much, please correct me if I'm wrong
That percentage in very very small in India. And most people buy only 1 extra flat. Only the ultra rich buy more than 1 extra home
@@prathamyadav2508 obsession with owning more than one house and earning rent is age old phenomena in south asian house holds where that money could have gone to starting new business and creating employment. This is pretty common in Nepal, I am not sure in India.
Agree with the video mostly. but I find it strange that you leave out one of the most crucial factor why house price is so high. IT COST NOTHING to maintain the house. China has no property tax. Means there is literally no cost to maintain such large amount of properties. The government once they levy tax on property especially on the non-first property. I suspect the price will drop drastically, due to then it will cost significant amount of money to maintain these extra properties. But since the population has grown accustomed to no property tax. It might have huge backlash. But it is something the Government will HAVE to do if they want to contain this and have sustainable tax income. The fact is the average joes of China pays almost no tax and that creates a problem for the country in the long run.
Also there is nothing about rent. What does chinesse do with all these bought 0-tax property? Is there some forces to keep property empty instead of lending, returning it to supply side?
If these additinal bought properties are really empty, property tax or other wise policies will increase supply in market by literally many dozens times.
All these additional properties is just deffered supply time bomb.
Land in China is technically leased from the government for a very long term, with the "rent" paid up front - that's what the land sales basically are. At the end of the lease term you theoretically would have to renew the lease from the government, and they can probably ask quite a lot based on value, but the question is whether anyone will actually be able to pay the price that's required to maintain the solvency of the local governments. Having people pay the taxes/rent from the government every year makes a whole lot more sense in financial planning for civic expenditures. And of course, the leases have to time out, which might take a while...
@@stevenglowacki8576 Do you know renew lease almost cost nothing for residential area? Government has specifically said private non commercial will just be rolled over with minor fees paid kind of like license fee renewal
@@nzho013 Thank you for that information. I was only familiar with the general system, having researched it for a school project several years ago (which was actually on a totally different topic, but understanding China's land policy was integral to one of my major points).
Some forms of property taxes are being discussed. And with the catastrophic collapse of Evergrande, maybe they'll be needed, since provinces won't have the chance to raise money from "leasing" land.
This is true. I have relatives in China, and real estate is def a thing. It is scary how much about China Polymatter gets correct.
YES!!! CHyna is finally going to collapse THIS TIME FOR REAL and I'm so f*ckn excited!! Abd you heard it first here from the one and only Polymatter this channel is historic
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@@GL-iv4rw Well that's pretty fucking crass.
@@GL-iv4rw Why would you want a country as big as China to collapse, you know that's gonna have destabilizing effects for the whole world right?
@@GL-iv4rw not sure if China is going to collapse. I also do not think that it would be good for the world if China collapses.
@@SnowyButterfly1 I agree. This is one of the reasons why I will never move back to China, but I am willing to visit relatives there. I am an ardent opponent of censorship.
I'm a long-time follower and, in my modest opinion, you've grown to become the best quality content producer. Apart from the interesting topics and your strong analytical spirit (whatever the final result maybe), your infographics also are extremely well thought!
September 2021... Amazing how well this video has aged.
Incredibly accurate video.
I tried so hard to convince my parents to not buy their THIRD home in china especially since we all live overseas and hardly go back, but it’s so embedded in their heads that they sold one of their retail stores to pay the down payment for the apartment... This was late 2019, the apartment already lost 10% of it’s value coz of covid, meanwhile I invested in Sasol last match and got 500% returns...
Idk man, yeah the real estate was bad but holding onto retail isn't exactly smart either. The world's already hooked on e-commerce. No need to be stuck in the past.
This is a real issue - the utterly entrenched need, desire, belief, that unbreakable feeling they need to buy as many houses as possible. They cannot stop themselves. I see this with nearly every Mainland Chinese who is around 40+ years old to around 65 years and its just an unbreakable addiction-like thinking no matter what.
On the bright side, I have noticed more younger people like yourself are far more skeptical, open-minded, are not intensely ram-rod minded about this idea.
YES!!! CHyna is finally going to collapse THIS TIME FOR REAL and I'm so f*ckn excited!! Abd you heard it first here from the one and only Polymatter this channel is historic
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is so stupid, what do they hope to achieve? Do they even rent the second house? I mean... wtf
Your parents should heed your western guardian’s advice and pool their retirement monies into crypto.
“Appear weak when you’re strong, and strong when you’re weak.
Why appear weak when strong, is it asking for war?
@@randomlygeneratedname7171 your opponent under estimate you
Just don't take it too far that one would even fool themselves instead of their opponents like the fall of the Soviet Union.
Sun tzu
Very strange statement if you take a look to china's story ahahah
16:02 "an illness need not be fatal to cause significant harm" is something some people need to realize about the current pandemic.
This one does very significant harm without even being caught )))
Well this aged like wine
"An ageing population and housing problem"
Spain: *sweats profusely*
Spain doesn't contain a massive amount of the world's factories and trying to expand their military. Plus, they're also a part of the EU.
Heard quite a number of Chinese investors have bought Spanish property too after its market collapse
@@aaroncabatingan5238 Spain also doesn't have 1.4 billion people
I went too Ordos at the end of 2019. Really cool experience. Weird being in a huge mall filled with nothing but sleeping employees
They were prepping for covid....
if homeownership in America meant marriage, half the country be single
Do you want to go back to 1950s US?
@Satsang Patel Isnt it already? I seen so many single guys compete for girls.
And the other half would be Mormon lol
@@bobfty2680 The irony is that many American men are seeking foreign women. And that is being driven by cultural aspects that have been incubating since the 1980s.
@@KRYMauL Unironically yes.
as a sino-spaniard, seeing the vacancy rate of spain at almost 30% made me grin. we beraly can afford rent and we cant afford a house with 30% empty houses. 2008 hit us like a truck with coicidentally the house market crash of usa and spain at the same time. leaving me paying my parentss house that we bought pre 2008. i can beraly pay it and will leave me without house for me.
Im always surprised seeing chinese family buying homes after 2008, most of my family members knows about the 2008 bubble crash but they keep investing in them.
anyway, be ready for the next market crash, it will affect it globally
Is this vacancy rate because of foreigners using it as a summer house?
It's never gonna happen, China will live on no matter what
@@tijldeclerck7772 Probably like most places it also struggles with developers buying up places to perpetually rent them and jacking up prices even if nobody buys in to maintain perceived value. That and turning stuff into hotels n shit
When people buy houses that they’ll never live in so housing prices are higher than they should be, causing financial problems for poorer families looking to buy.
I dont know how chinese houses are financed but wont that eventually lead to massive depreciating of housing prices which would cause morgages to go underwater? Kinda like 2008 crisis?
Yeah but unlike what happened in America, I don’t think their getting loans which they can’t afford from the bank.
Their loans are much more secured than those leading up to the 2008 mortgage crisis
@@robertjonker8131 It's already starting to happen. A friend of mine there is panic-selling two of their houses in their hometown and trying to buy a house in Canada, instead.
Guys these houses are built to gather wealth for the family, so there is no poor people. I think the state lease model of Japan works quite well for Asian countries because if you let them Asian families will buy a bunch of houses and just live off the passive income.
12:45 HOLD UP, this dude is like 40 years older than I am and I definitely cannot do whatever he just did
Well it looks like it's time for you to go to the gym then.
@@meneither3834 LOL I am extremely overdue for a visit to the gym
Polymater: "china is growing old and dying"
that dude: "who the fuck are you calling old?"
Watch carefully what the guy on the left did after seeing that
Chris Heria possesses old man in China
"Income tax can be as high as 40%"
So.. Just like in the west?
But unlike the west, you don't truly own this property. You only lease it from the CCP for 70 years with an option to renew.
@Pui Yue 90%?) What is this country?
@Pui Yue The fact this is not true. There is no country in Europe with 90% income tax.
@@vlad981 United State...but in 1951 haha
@Pui Yue It doesn't matter. You still didn't name the country with 90% income tax rate.
Taxing rates are not some secret info - it's official policy than you can find on government site.
If you believe in some bullshit info from "cool youtubers" - it's your problem, not mine) I don't need to go to a lawyer to know such type of data.
I respect that you make the sponsorship short. Gets you the money but still engages the audience
What about house?
You've already had it.
We've had one, yes. But what about second house?
As a Chinese, I could say that these are all true. Actually it is surprising that some foreigners could reveal so many details and all the aspects of the problem. Great video!!
You are single from birth until you buy a house?
@@cashmoney2159 Younger girls are relatively less materialistic. Then they are influenced by parents (asian parents..you know), and finally all of them would take the house as one of the most important factor when they choose a partner. So young man could have girlfriend, for example, in the university, but getting married is another story.
@@chizhang1918 why don't they live with their parents in a bigger house instead of apartments?
@@cashmoney2159 Living with parents is never the first option worldwide right?? Theoretically they could do this, but it makes them look poor, so the girls would not show any interest towards them.
@@chizhang1918 Damn that’s sort of fucked usually over here it’s considered normal to live with your parents for a few years and then you eventually pay for a house later in your years which you pay of fully in the future. What happens if you get married to a girl from another country wouldn’t that drastically lower the need for a house? Your English is really good so I reckon you could do just that.
As Chinese myself, I would say this is the most accurate and unbiased (like all your videos) diagnosis of the problem on UA-cam. The "two sessions" national meetings just ended last week and had two major topics. One is renewable energy, the other one is to deleverage the economy and control the housing problem. Let's hope their plan works.
yeah. fresh to see a video taht at least did dome research instead of saying "china bad" like china uncensored. Bunch of c**ts they are.
But UA-cam in banned in China?!
@@aaroncampf bruh its 2021. keep up with the time
I agree, many exciting reforms are coming, and I am also interested to see how the huge post COVID stimulus package in the next 5 years will change these problems.
I appreciate you sharing your genuine thoughts as a Chinese citizen. You are a fellow human being and I wish you the very best.
6 months later, here we are seeing all this Evergrande problem... Wow.
Wendover Productions: Airplanes
HAI: Bricks
Real Life Lore: Toyota Corolla
Johnny Harris: Maps
PolyMatter: China
@Sc0ut Op pubg mobile cringe
20 yr old westerner: stonks
20 yr old Chinese: monopoly
another house lol
GAMESTONKS
yolo lets buy all the houses
30 year old westerner cant even save any money meanwhile 30 year old chinese myself making $8000 per month from my other houses
As a Chinese American, even Chinese here (and ones not from the Mainland) people still love their real estate. It's like stocks but less likely to crash than stocks.
@@danshakuimo "less likely" lol the 2008 crash wants a word with you.
U do understand china economy, well better than many investment bank analysts.
Well done
Agreed, but then IB analysts doesn't care about economics
this aged like a fine wine!
"Anyone who's taken macroeconomics 101..."
Hearing this right after a macro exam😖
Jesus Christ is returning soon. Repent (turn around from your ungodly ways) and believe the Gospel. For
God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes
in him shall not perish but have eternal life. John 3:16
@Make America Great Again why do you put Chinese flag pattern in American in map?
@Make America Great Again I would recommend a social democracy over communist dictatorship but ok.
@Make America Great Again CCP Shill
@Make America Great Again So you're not Ethnically Chinese?
Damn if all seniors are as fit as these 12:45 than the new generations dont stand a chance.
They kind of don’t. Mao kind of screwed them by offering utopian ideas without also reframing the social class structure to value the weakest in the collective when there wasn’t an attrition of war or plague to reduce the population, or provide a motive to protect against corruption and exploitation. The projection of strength also means the projection of weakness and the chaos of destructive power in forcing people to carry the burdens of others so others and leaders can be stronger.
To live well and fear people with all the answers.
There will be a swathe of unemployed or loosely employed by a government / military force (to hide the unemployment numbers) who have nothing to offer for millions, except for lottery or hope draws to keep the 500:1 men to women from leaving. There are likely urban areas and towns with no single women below 50 years of age, no newborn girls, and dying farm / primary production of livestock.
It would not surprise me if war and plague comes back with a strangely expensive, more lethal mutation and curative that requires middle class resources and select cities to distribute around January next year.
Or worst case, the three rivers dam bursts or is sabotaged, affecting hundreds of millions of people, and the worlds economy soon afterwards.
@@Toliman. Where did you get all those info? China needs people like you to think this way.
@@antonfeng1434 No his information is just your uncomfortable reality check.
@@daxtynminn3415 I mean it, China's doomsday prediction has been around for more than 30 years yet China is becoming increasingly prosperous and powerful. We need doomsday advocators to remind us of our problems and camouflage our rise in power, so that hostile powers do not pose serious troubles when we are dealing with internal structural problems. That is definitely a favourable thing for China!
@@antonfeng1434 Dude, I want you to take a look at China’s demographic pyramid they are about to be a retirement home buddy. While your at it look at a chart of favorability around the world for China 10 years ago and now. Chinas economic bubble is just getting bigger and bigger which means when it finally hits it will hit much harder. China’s collapse is not if it’s when and for how long.
What i learned for the last 15 years is that avoid talking about Chinese economic bubble until it already popped.
Well at this point, china is that one silent kid that anti social that when he bring a gun to the school for shutting up the bullies you won't really really surprised. Just a reminder that they literally won't and never forget what atrocities your ancestors did to them and they want vengeance.
@@peacechan4500 With what china is doing to innocents I think they don’t care
@@peacechan4500 Given how they treat their own minorities, i think they are less the silent kid, and more the abusive husband letting all its anger out on its wife and kids while pretending to be amazing to everyone outside its apartment.
@@peacechan4500 vengeance? Lol tell that to south east asian and Indian, you will see who is the Bully.
Yeah...as long as we are no living in China there's nothing to worry about. Just ready your popcorn and enjoy the drama when the bubble finally burst.
Covid-19 is actually a blessing in disguise. It ready and mentally condition us to face a world of economic armageddon when these massive bubble burst. The shockwave will go as far as into US, Europe and every other countries within the belt and road sphere of influence.
Wow, saw this earlier. Now watching again after Evergrande meltdown
i was looking forward to this
Why
Me too after first part.
@@ayaanshsolanki3578 See first part
Me too!!!! :)
@Spatza dad didn’t love you or something?
Bubbles really only pop when the first person goes to sell and can't. Housing is viewed as safe and stable. So why would the Pandemic take it down? The problem will only come when someone who needs cash in order to retire tries to sell a property and suddenly can't find a buyer.
@ soon? how soon is soon? like 20 years?
@ not really though, Taiwan,south korea is having a population decline and yet it's real estate price just keeps going up.
@@lsd310 Idk about Taiwan but I know SK’s growth has mostly been driven by foreign buyers and declining interest rates adjusting the lease conversion rate
As a former baby i can confirm it is all true
The only TURTH is China as been cooking there book's for along time 👍
I too was born at a very young age.
Sad. CCP is built on lie and all their citizens are suffering, while they are enjoying all the wealth. It's not far from what N.K. did!
Can you do a reckoning video on each country?
Spain's reckoning/Greece's Reckoning/Italy's Reckoning would Be like...... 10 Hours long.
Why? 1) Nobody is suffering this like China is and 2) this is the China Channel
@@guacre2675 you are being silly or butt hurt over something. Of course they can create a new channel on this idea and of course other countries problems can be just as enlightening when broken down. I'm going to need you to get way off my back...
My gf is Shanghainese, her parents own 4 apartments in one of the most expensive cities in the world, and they are middle class 😅
I'm actually curious. How many of them are actually occupied (either owner occupied or rented out)? I'm guessing the demand in places like Shanghai would probably keep it occupied more than the average stats.
@@wr85487 that's true, all of them are rented.
@@wr85487 The demand for house in big cities in China is still pretty strong (at least top 10 cities I think?), and the real problem there is only the price, which is also a kind of method to control the population of these biggest cities. There are a lot of people owning many houses (even for mid class), and treat these estates as investment by solding or renting it later. As in the video, the house vacancy problem is familiar in smaller places, and the house price there tend to dicline these years. Now holding the high level of house price in big cities and deflating in small cities seem to be the method being used by the gov to break that house market bubble.
our definition of middle class is a bit different. it doesn't really mean around the population median. For that we use the word 小康
They upgraded macro economics
“Not all buckets are created equal.”
-Polymatter, 2021
Just when I read this the scene came. Dejavu
s
Sam hogan game prof pic
@@MarkAlcarezBoston Very good...
Came to discuss evergrande, blown away by those old men on the bars at 12:44. I really have to start working out.
Erm Poly, you might wanna cover the latest Chinese Crisis, which is about this, the Mortgage Crisis.
This video is a gem. You can tell how much research has gone into it. Good stuff!
learning about china is amazing, such an interesting country, with such rich history.
Edit: come join the fun in the replies lol
It destroyed our western world
@@CriativesTier Good LOL.
@@envadeh why tho
> with such rich history
Too bad Mao didn’t have the same feelings
@@CriativesTier you can argue that, but it doesnt dismiss any of their history for being of little value.
Its economy, politics and demographic issues and solutions are a goldmine of knownedge
Ireland is doing better than I thought on the property front.
Coming back to watch this video and see how accurate this video is, is just astonishing
No bars, supermarkets, and other disease spreading public spaces. These guys were ahead of the times.
Plandemic, they got the memo ahead of the rest of us.
@@kuuryotwo5153 ^^^ Imagine being as stupid and naïve as Kuuryo? ^^^
@@kuuryotwo5153 They literally denied it was happening. How the fuck were they "ahead"?
They do have bars 12:47
@@c_n_b I stand corrected.
I was looking forward to this.
me tooo
The comment below u said the exact same thing
Do some LSD or witchcraft then you will realize your way wrong. It's okay tho.
@@101penguinss101 you need help
@@LucidFL yes. Only God can help me and all.
12:52 them seniors can do more than me 😭
I had to rewatch that segment. Thats really impressive.
@@mal3xia literally same i was like no way thats real 😂
I just want to mention how incredibly effective and compelling the introduction is at painting this unsettling and eerie picure of a city where the only thing that seems to be missing are the people it was built for. It exposes the disturbing dissonance quite well in my opinion, and almost sounds like the beginning of a chilling mystery novel.
Great work. You summed up the situation here in China perfectly!
Are your chinese?
Your name literally translates Mr Black Person 😃
Your name is genius
Chinese people can't access UA-cam
@@SBImNotWritingMyNameHere I believe they can, but they have to use a VPN. Preferably not a VPN they download from inside China itself.
CALLING IT!
#3 IS NATURAL RESOURCES
(This comment is coming from Philippines, where China goes to fish)
You know they’re trying to reopen the Silk Road, right? That’s why they need those waters it’s for trade not just natural resources.
Nope. mostly due to Trade, and defense.
that area is very busy and as well as it is one of their most vulnerable area due to the fact no one really likes china in that area and philippines is a very very close ally of the americans..well at least not in duterte admin (for now~). they have no natural defenses there other than typhoons xD
another vulnerable spot is east china sea. between them and japan
In fact, the Philippines have so much fish that China needs to send 200 ships to help fish it all!
3rd is Water, close enough.
This is the type of criticism China needs, thank you.
"A sudden and rapid fall in prices is the worst case scenario"
Evergrand: 🤯
Your editing is simply magnificent! Fantastic work.
i wonder how many of his videos have the tags "china" and "crisis" in them.
Well, this aged well
I see that China is to PolyMatter as Airplanes are to Wendover Productions
This series is brilliant anyways 😁
Surprising well researched analysis!!! Respect! 👏👏👏🌟🌟🌟
Living in Shanghai was fascinating. The women I worked with were able to negotiate for houses... until they turned 27 and lost a significant part of their bargaining power (at which point, if they were still unmarried, had to settle for a man that only owned one house). The ones who had surgically enhanced themselves to look like anime characters were demanding that their potential husband own at least 3 houses and sign a prenup that would give them half of everything in case of a divorce. And they would get it. Marriage in Shanghai was 100% a business deal.
Incredible. What are your projections? Did you notice any indication of this slowing down or getting worse?
@@DonnieDarko1 I just noticed that men were, in general, 100% focused on making as much money as possible so they could afford a "hot" (read: surgically enhanced) wife, and women were absolutely paranoid about turning 27 before finding a rich husband.
There were occasional exceptions to this behavior, as there are anywhere, and those people ended up becoming friends.
@@DavidGravesExists yes, I've heard of this "left over women" but I suspect this behavior /selection process isn't just unique to Asian women. As I'm learning through others online, this phenomenon is quite evident everywhere and may very well be biological in nature serving important evolutionary strategy.
Damn, and we have the gall to complain about gold-diggers in the west.
@@Adsper2000 Marriage, for most of human history, was a financial arrangement. They're just keeping it real.
So, let me get this straight, if prices go up, they’re screwed, and if they go down, they’re screwed. So in other words they’re damned if they do, damned if they don’t? Am I missing something here or not?
No, that's pretty much it.
It's incredibly overvalued and has received insanely heavy investment because people think it's (government) guaranteed to rise more.
If it goes up, you get more problems (affordability and even more overvalued)
When it goes down, you'll get a combination of panic spurring more sales and people who might have purchased holding off until they get a better deal.
Which in turn means that masses of people are left with something that took their life savings that's not worth what they paid for it, and a huge portion of the economy suddenly gone to nothing because why would you build more houses when prices are crashing?
All of which impacts the rest of the economy.
Like with the one child policy, this is a problem they've allowed to get so massive the only real solution involves time travel.
This channel is incredible, easily one of the best on youtube. Though the moment you play him at 1.5x speed, you'll never ever go back.
i saw my grandfather watch chinese tv in indonesia and i saw one of your animations being used by the tv company for some reason, it felt weird
You should mail this to him. This is really serious stuff
"When you download a book on Audible, you own it." Lmao, people will just say anything on the Internet.
Lemme guess: as much as videogames, we don't *own* the audiobook, we just have a licence to have a copy?
@@idromano I had an Audible account for 1 month, the access to my *downloaded* audio books just popped out of existence. They weren't saved as audio files (mp3, wav, whatever) on my device but as something only the app could read and only would if you were logged in with a still-paying account.
Yeah, you only "own" them as long as you keep paying, so you have them on rent, basically.
Can't wait for PolyMatter to do a documentary on Housing in the USA!
Unnecessary as the Great Depression was a great example for this
You want it with jokes? big short
without jokes? inside job