Forecast Discussion - May 19, 2024 - Wind-Driven Moderate Risk Centered on Kansas
Вставка
- Опубліковано 11 чер 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
SPC has upgraded to a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across parts of Kansas today. Initial supercells are expected to fire across western Kansas, quickly producing large to very large hail and strong outflow winds. Outflows are expected to congeal with time, fostering the growth of an intense MCS capable of yielding a swath of significant damaging winds. More isolated supercell development is possible across northwest Oklahoma; these storms will yield a large hail and damaging wind risk and maybe come well-structured by evening before being absorbed by the MCS.
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: / convectivechronicles
Facebook: / convectivechronicles
X: / convchronicles
Instagram: / convectivechronicles
Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
2:46 Current conditions, observed data
13:24 Model analysis
31:45 Wrap-up - Наука та технологія
Learning a great deal from you. You are a good lecturer and now I can see what you were teaching in your skew-t series and in general. Thanks so much from someone with weather anxiety. Good to understand the environment so I can take the correct actions.
Thank you so much! I'm happy to hear the videos have been helpful!
never seen spc mention 100mpg winds in an outlook before
100mpg... That's some seriously fuel-efficient winds
Good day to drive then
@@thunderjumper7958only with a tailwind tho. -100mpg with a headwind
@@thunderjumper7958 If you want to get blown off the road.
@@Hopeful_Libertarian yeet
Thanks, Trey! I hope everybody is spared the conditions that Houston experienced the other day 😬
We now have a 45% hail area too. Given the 5% tornado threat with 45% hatched wind & hail areas we will very likely get a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch today.
Definitely
What is that blue temp between the air temp & dewpoint? Is that the wet bulb temp? It's closer to the dewpoint. I guess since normally in severe weather setups the spread is so small I never see it.
On model soundings, the solid cyan trace is the wetbulb temperature profile. At 100% relative humidity, the wetbulb temperature is equal to the air temperature; at lower humidity, the wetbulb temperature is lower than the normal temperature because of evaporative cooling.
As always a great dissection of current and future weather.
Thank you!
Last Thursday, May9th, we had something akin to what happened in Houston. We were not tornado warned, but the line of storms was bowing out, with a tornado possible tag. In Cleveland Tenn, there was hundreds of downed huge tress, and several barns was destroyed, and some roof damage where the winds was the worse. Straight line winds was terrible, looked just like the videos of what happened in Houston. I hate people may very well get worse than that, if they get as high as the WC is predicting. I’ll be praying for all of you in the line of these storms today, and in the following days. Please don’t be driving in that folks!!! Be safe. Gid bless all of you🙏🙏🙏♥️
Been a long while since we have seen the MDT wind driven risk. I THINK not since either the huge Iowa wind event last year in March or maybe that year the year before. One of those it was for that insane arc of storms around one of the lows...I know it was not the Keota, IA tornado event.....drawing a blank off this overnight shift.
Anyway this does have an all hazards threat especially tornadoes information as long as these stay discrete for as the conditions are rip and hell we may see a goood number in parts of the ends of the derecho. Tell you what, this is gonna be very dangerous to chase. This will be one you will not be able to likely outrun as this is going to surge and we saw what happened in Houston on a 80-100mph event the other day...this will be far more widespread so if you are a chaser...this will feel like a cat 1 or 2 hurricane and this has potential to do more damage than a single tornado as these winds are sooo widespread and strong.
Still, thisnis gonna be an unreal shelf cloud...people better get some god damn good photos of it before this runs into chasers out there.
Houston may be why SPC upgraded to MOD on wind alone.
Wow. If nothing else, it's certainly gonna be eventful. Thanks Trey👍
Thank you for your very accurate forecast for this area / as you said, severe wind storms in Kansas (as u predicted) // there were some tornado warnings in Northwest Oklahoma, (u had said that was possible), then the storms moved east into Northeast Oklahoma, Tulsa, where I live, had more rain and noisy thunder // It takes a lot of time, not only to put these videos together, but to study all of the data before you even begin the video/thanks for helping me get through the storm
Of course! Glad the videos are helpful for you!
From the videos, I like learning about
Hodographs /// I could never forecast anything by looking at them, however i noticed when you said the line on the top right model curves down it means that the storms will have rain & hail that may obscure any wall clouds or bad weather / if the lines go off to the top of the page, the rain and hail will be moved away to the north east providing hopefully better viewing/ I think I got that right
@@joseph-frankbrocchus6575 Generally yes; if midlevel winds back or turn toward the north, you'll have a better chance at more visible storm features, including tornadoes
Sounds like storms will fire right over my head in Garden City. Great video Trey!
Thank you; be safe today!
Great video Trey 👍😁, this is looking like a potent damaging Wind event for today
Thank you; I agree!
Seems to be a very real chance of a derecho today
Definitely on the table
Hi Trey, I keep coming back. Still trying to figure out Wednesday for SW and Central Ohio. I've never seen such low confidence and inconsistencies. But confidence enough to put us in the slight risk for thunderstorms, wind and hail with low probability of tornadoes. Then a couple guys will say, "Oh yes, definitely a chance for tornadoes". I'm waiting to do soundings until tomorrow. I don't want to upset my weather chat by giving them any wrong information. If you could give me any help, oh I would really appreciate your hard work and time. Thank you so much.
It is definitely a complex setup…I think we’ll have to get a better idea of how Tuesday plays out to know more specific details on Wednesday. Right now, it looks like we could see a slightly more favorable corridor from southern Missouri into Illinois where an MCS may develop by evening, but that could change.
So we have a bit more clarity for today in SW/C OH...very low-end threat for tornadoes with the greatest risk up in the NE part of the state. Main risk with any storm today will be hail and wind, but the overall risk is on the lower end.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thank you so much. I really appreciate your time and help. The soundings I did yesterday on the 18z came back with more instability for today (around noon) so I really began to wonder. Even one for a SigTor near me. Thank you again for even remembering me and for answering me. It sure means a lot. Have a wonderful day. 😊
@@faegrrrl Of course! Be safe today!
@@ConvectiveChronicles Sunday is looking really bad for us. To the point where I'm scared.
This looks like a potential serial derecho event. Will be interesting to see how this evolves this evening and overnight.
I agree!
It is crazy to see this Moderate Risk for wind and hail today. Even more so that it could be a derecho, which already occurred a couple of days ago in Houston. Hopefully everyone makes it through the storms from now through however long this stretch of severe weather lasts.
I do have a question: does the normal wind speed and wind gust in an area play a role in whether or not severe weather takes place? For example, an area that is at risk for severe storms but the wind speed that day is like 8 mph and gusts at 12 mph?
Not really; in a typical severe weather event on the Plains, you will often see surface winds be pretty strong out of the south/southeast (stronger than normal). That is due to a developing surface low.
@@ConvectiveChronicles that makes sense. I was curious because my area is potentially at risk on Wednesday. That day has the wind speed at its highest (about 12 mph) that afternoon, but showers and storms may or may not form then. Yet, on Thursday and Friday, there is a greater chance of showers and storms despite the wind speed dropping to single digits.
I'm probably reading too much into this, but it was something I wondered about.
Could Tuesday be a severe weather/tornado outbreak?! It already sounds significant and CSU MLP is showing almost 70% of probabilities
It does look like a potent event, but the finescale details remain to be seen
Could this be a derecho event?
It's definitely on the table
@@ConvectiveChronicles Interesting!
What does the blue dashed line and solid cyan line represent in the sounding skew t plot? Do they measure adiabats, pressure, lapse rates?
On the model soundings, the blue dashed line is the parcel trace. It follows a hypothetical parcel of air rising in the given environment; it rises along the dry adiabat until the LCL, above which it rises along the moist adiabat. The solid cyan trace is the wetbulb temperature profile. At 100% relative humidity, the wetbulb temperature is equal to the air temperature; at lower humidity, the wetbulb temperature is lower than the normal temperature because of evaporative cooling.
@@ConvectiveChroniclesgot it! Thank you so much
Is this kind of setup the same for tuesdays weather event?
Tuesday looks to be more classic
Tuesday is quite a different setup with a much stronger shortwave and surface low.
I have a question for you about a severe weather is there a chance that we see things get bad again for severe weather and how bad would they be for Lincoln Nebraska
Need to be on alert today for all severe hazards by late morning. Threat should move quickly off to the east.
Is Alpena Michigan in the clear from severe weather for the next few days?
Should be an isolated, low end threat at best
@@ConvectiveChronicles should I worry to much or no?
Wonder if we’re going to have two derecho events in a week period. Hopefully not like the Iowa August Derecho event 😬
Certainly a possibility!
I can already predict the face of trey waking up, seeing the spc on a moderate risk 😂 then seeing its a wind risk not tornado risk, so less chase chase, so he goes back to eating breakfast 😂 @ConvectiveChronicles
Hahaha
45 sig hail now!
Would you predict a concerning tornado threat on Wednesday for Indianapolis?
At this point, no. But severe weather is a possibility
@@ConvectiveChronicles Got it, thank you so much Trey! 🐐
🍿... destructive thunderstorm warnings enjoyers... damaging gust fronts... microbursts... chonky hail.
Dear Heavenly Father,
We come to you seeking your protection and mercy as severe weather approaches. Calm the storms, still the winds, and quiet the thunder.
Protect us, our loved ones, and our communities from harm. Keep us safe from the dangers of the storm, and shelter us under your loving care.
We pray for those who are vulnerable, especially the elderly, children, and those in poverty. Please keep them safe and provide for their needs.
May your peace and calm be upon us, and may your grace sustain us through this challenging time.
In Jesus' name, we pray. Amen! ✝️
Remember, God is our rock and our refuge in times of trouble. May He keep us all safe and secure!
Tornado risk COULD ramp up with a discrete oklahoma cell around and after dark
It’s possible if the storms can recover from outflow dominance
@ConvectiveChronicles STP of 12 couldn't fix that for the Moore cell on the high risk day so we shall see