This is solid context. There’s also the contingent correlation factor here too. If Caleb is not who we think he is Rome’s value is hurt considerably. Whereas Wilson and Herbert are completely separate outcomes not contingent on each other.
Your takes have been pretty refreshing to see. Just hearing the words "probability distribution" tells me a whole hell of a lot about where you're coming from. Me just rambling about stuff loosely related to your ceiling/floor discussion: One thought experiment I use every now and again is comparing 2 6-sided dice where you win money based on the number you roll. One dies has a wild distribution with sides 0/0/0/0/0/6000 the other with sides 0/500/1000/1000/1000/2500. So both dice have the same expected value (1000) if you roll them, but if you're only making one or two bets one is clearly far safer than the other. A lot of people don't get when it's appropriate the roll one or the other and what risks and benefits there are to going all in. The floor or ceiling makes a big difference if you're only rolling that die one or two times. When we're playing a billion best ball tournaments we're looking for that crazy all or nothing distribution, but in dynasty, the cost of losing multiple bets back to back can be years and years of rebuilding. Basically, there's an important practical difference between what is 'likely' and what is 'expected'.
Just started dynasty this year and I’m already ALL IN. Love the content I have watched every video since I started dynasty it has been really insightful.
I've been enjoying your videos and hearing your thoughts process! This is a side note but I've noticed that you have a stack of the highschool classic required readings on that shelf. Bangers.
Love your analysis, however I think you need to apply a wider probability distribution to Garrett Wilson. You mentioned Devonta Smith as a likely floor for Odunze, but G Wilson has been outproduced by Smith both years they’ve been in the NFL. Yea you can blame it on QB play, but it’s in Wilson’s range of outcomes to be Terry McLaurin and just never get that QB to make him elite.
This isn't true, unless you mean to compare Devonta's 2nd and 3rd year to Garrett's first and second, which would obviously be unfair. Devonta Smith rookie year- 916 yards, 5 TDs; Garrett Wilson rookie year- 1,103 yards, 4 TDs And Wilson doesn't need a QB to "make him elite"- he's been just shy of elite with some of the worst QB play in the entire NFL. Even league average play from Rodgers would make his floor much higher than it has been; even Tyrod Taylor could well be enough of an improvement to move him into the 1,300 yards and 8 TD range (and if that happens they almost certainly take a first round QB next spring).
I disagree with this. Terry McLaurin has never come remotely close to the target dominance we saw from Wilson last year. With even average QB play, Garrett Wilson will be a WR1.
what are your thought son the "life after Rodgers" part of it? like even w/o injury, likely retires soon - ppl who push back on my ranking of GW and others who are aggressive bring that up; curious what you think
I think this trade is more about opinions than facts. I understand where you are coming from, but even if Caleb and Rome don't hit, I think there is equal risk to Wilson and Herbert that makes this trade slightly lopsided imo. Wilson is tied to a QB that really only has 1-2 years of high ceiling and then the Jets are back in rebuild/QB search mode which limits GW upside long term. Herbert is imo in the same tier as Caleb, but is 5 years older which is fine but you also added a 3rd on top which made this questionable to me. I don't dislike this trade, but I would have waited till midseason to make a move like this as the Jets might stink and the Chargers are quite bad offensively. This trade just doesn't move the needle for me enough to move off younger equal tier assets even in a "win now" team. Love the video, just my thoughts/opinion and I could easily be wrong lol
Appreciate the feedback! I see less risk with Herbert and Wilson just due to the proven track record of talent. They can absolutely disappoint in a single season, but there's still a reasonable floor.
Love the content and how you use data to communicate your points. Doing my first ever Guillotine draft next weeks and I’m looking for high floor rankings since all I’m looking for half the season is to not be last, I don’t care if I’m the second worst team every week up until weeks 8-10 when I’m looking to spend my FAAB- any insights into Guillotine?
Thanks! Unfortunately, I haven't played guillotine before. But seems like you'd want to be more wary of rookie WRs and anyone entering the season with an injury. Probably want to prioritize the boring RBs with volume moreso than other formats.
Speaking of Trevor Lawrence and Rome Odunze… I was offered trade I would be receiving Odunze. SF .5 PPR Start 10 Would you do this trade? QBs- Love, Caleb, TLaw, Nix, Darnold WRs- Wilson, D. Smith, Kirk, McLaurin, Jameo, Polk, Leggett, Burton
you do need some help at QB... but IDK if i would give up a top 15 QB for Rome straight up... maybe counter with Nix or Darnold and add a future 3rd or 4th Rd pick
I’m not necessarily all in on Caleb and Rome, but a factor that people don’t talk about often is that Wilson is already being valued as though he has broken out. He has not. Everyone talks about the terrible QB play he’s faced, but I haven’t heard even one statistic backing that up. Wilson is very much not at his floor right now, he has received an insane number of targets, even with this terrible QB play which somehow limits his upside, but not his targets. I’m unloading Wilson wherever I can.
Can you cite a reason for Wilson's struggles unrelated to QB play? His ability to earn targets on a per route basis is on par with Ceedee Lamb and AJ Brown. So what is the specific deficiency in his game that has prevented him from scoring more fantasy points?
I See your Point. But you defently missed die Factor of marketvalue. Your could have gotten so much more imo for caleb and odunze. When everyone values upside and potencial so much, you should Base the Value on that, too. You should easily get playmaterial like Herbert and wilson + something like a 2nd round Pick on Top of it.
I definitely agree market value should play a role. I'm not sure I would have gotten more in my particular league, and I was quite happy with the return as a big believer in Wilson.
I disagreed with you at first, but by the end you made me think you at least probably didn't lose the trade. I took Odunze in r3 of a 16 team sf dynasty start up so im hoping he pans out. Would you trade what's in that pokeball for a Nidorino?
@PurePotentialFF Don't need a ground type eh... hmmm... clues... I just offered Bryce Young for Bo Nix and a 1st. Nix went about 3 rounds after Young in the start up... Do you take Nix over Young straight up?
I got offered waddle and pitts for laporta and flowers mid last year and smash accepted. League wasn’t happy about the trade. Now it feels like a lost it😂
Would you do Jameson Williams for Rhamondre or Jameson and a 2nd for for Rhamondre and Hollywood? Trying to sell Jameson. Not sure he’s gonna do anything.
I don’t think you won as much you believe, I love Garrett and Herbert is undervalued but give me Caleb by a decent margin and Odunze is probably just as good of a prospect as Wilson. Fair trade but give me the upside of the Bears stack
I was offered David Montgomery, 26 first, 27 first for Kyren and 25 2nd I am prob the favorite for the championship. 10T ST9 .5PPR Should I accept this trade? I think it hurts my odds short term, but obviously sets me up ok long term
I don’t feel strongly that you are wrong…but you’re asserting (according to your values) a 90% chance of winning trade is too spicy….The Jets organization is a hot mess and Aaron Rodgers is coming off a torn Achilles so there is a lot of risk….also Rodgers isn’t long for the league (he is old) so you have to ask how confident am I the jets will get a decent QB AFTER Rodgers is done? I have zero confidence in that organization. Wilson as great as he is needs a QB to get him the ball. Herbert in the long run should be fine…and I’m not saying your take is awful…but I think it’s closer to a coin flip….oh and comparing Odunze’s profile to other 1st round WR busts sounds good…but Matt Harmon at Reception Perception has his profile as elite elite….unlike other 1 dimensional prospects who run fast …but who are inept route runners..so….just saying 90%….probability you win that trade? I don’t see it the same way….but I appreciate the take.
Hey, appreciate the feedback! The 90% number was to win the trade OR break even. If Caleb outpaces Herbert but Wilson remains firmly ahead of Odunze, it's a push. If Caleb and Herbert end up in the same tier and Garrett and Odunze are same tier, it's a push. The lack of downside was really key for me to accept. I don't think I'm likely to win the deal in a landslide because I do believe in both Bears players.
Yeah this trade is a no brainer. Especially if you are a contender or even borderline contender. I’m not waiting a season or two for Rome to become what Wilson already is. Also I’m ALL IN
This is solid context. There’s also the contingent correlation factor here too. If Caleb is not who we think he is Rome’s value is hurt considerably. Whereas Wilson and Herbert are completely separate outcomes not contingent on each other.
@@brett4932 good point!
I'm ALL IN. Interesting content. We need more dynasty theory stuff. Thanks.
Your takes have been pretty refreshing to see. Just hearing the words "probability distribution" tells me a whole hell of a lot about where you're coming from.
Me just rambling about stuff loosely related to your ceiling/floor discussion:
One thought experiment I use every now and again is comparing 2 6-sided dice where you win money based on the number you roll. One dies has a wild distribution with sides 0/0/0/0/0/6000 the other with sides 0/500/1000/1000/1000/2500. So both dice have the same expected value (1000) if you roll them, but if you're only making one or two bets one is clearly far safer than the other. A lot of people don't get when it's appropriate the roll one or the other and what risks and benefits there are to going all in. The floor or ceiling makes a big difference if you're only rolling that die one or two times. When we're playing a billion best ball tournaments we're looking for that crazy all or nothing distribution, but in dynasty, the cost of losing multiple bets back to back can be years and years of rebuilding.
Basically, there's an important practical difference between what is 'likely' and what is 'expected'.
@@absbread love this concept!
Really into this channel. Needs more subs!
We ALL IN
@@colinoneill5238 thanks!
Month old video, still relevant content. Clear and well though out, not to mention mic/camera/background setup. This channel is one of the good ones 📈
@@c_fish13 appreciate ya!
Your content has been so awesome. It really made me go all in this year in my first dynasty league.
Just started dynasty this year and I’m already ALL IN. Love the content I have watched every video since I started dynasty it has been really insightful.
@@nathanhouk4798 love to hear it!
I’m all in on this channel. Great content so far 🔥
I've been enjoying your videos and hearing your thoughts process! This is a side note but I've noticed that you have a stack of the highschool classic required readings on that shelf. Bangers.
Great books! When I'm not arguing with strangers online about Justin Herbert's dynasty value, I teach high school English.
Been subscribed for some time now. I’m all in! Great content!
Love your analysis, however I think you need to apply a wider probability distribution to Garrett Wilson. You mentioned Devonta Smith as a likely floor for Odunze, but G Wilson has been outproduced by Smith both years they’ve been in the NFL.
Yea you can blame it on QB play, but it’s in Wilson’s range of outcomes to be Terry McLaurin and just never get that QB to make him elite.
This isn't true, unless you mean to compare Devonta's 2nd and 3rd year to Garrett's first and second, which would obviously be unfair.
Devonta Smith rookie year- 916 yards, 5 TDs; Garrett Wilson rookie year- 1,103 yards, 4 TDs
And Wilson doesn't need a QB to "make him elite"- he's been just shy of elite with some of the worst QB play in the entire NFL. Even league average play from Rodgers would make his floor much higher than it has been; even Tyrod Taylor could well be enough of an improvement to move him into the 1,300 yards and 8 TD range (and if that happens they almost certainly take a first round QB next spring).
I disagree with this. Terry McLaurin has never come remotely close to the target dominance we saw from Wilson last year. With even average QB play, Garrett Wilson will be a WR1.
Wilson and McLaurin are not even close to comparable in terms of metrics and just the eye test in general. Wilson is a far superior WR.
Appreciate the ALL IN input and like the trade including the breakdown on it.
All in on your channel and discord! Love your process & explanation of how to think about dynasty and trades
All in! Love your videos and have been really liking the content lately. One of the best out there💯
Thanks a lot!
All in! Thanks for the video, I love your channel. Great dynasty analysis.
Loving it man🙏 get your value and explain why it makes sense. Road to one mil? ALL IN BABY
yeah i'd take that trade - i understand the brief hesitation or the desire to squeeze more, but i'm on your side in this one - great video explanation
but i feel personally attacked by the "life support" comment re: Jamo 🤣
@@btthpod lol sorry dude 😅
what are your thought son the "life after Rodgers" part of it? like even w/o injury, likely retires soon - ppl who push back on my ranking of GW and others who are aggressive bring that up; curious what you think
I,m all in on all your content! Nice videos!
“ALL IN” I”ll take all the help I can get. Great videos! They truly do help me in my dynasty leagues. Thanks
As I'm already a subscriber to both this channel and FP, you can say I'M ALL-IN.
Great stuff, Paul. We ALL IN!
Ya, but what about the 3rd
@@sirspook4374 ah, forgot to weigh that in. Back to the drawing board.
Loving the content! Ready for the games to matter! ALL IN baby!!!
All in on this channel! Great content!
All in. Really enjoying the channel.
ALL In baby, really enjoying the content, keep it up
I think this trade is more about opinions than facts. I understand where you are coming from, but even if Caleb and Rome don't hit, I think there is equal risk to Wilson and Herbert that makes this trade slightly lopsided imo. Wilson is tied to a QB that really only has 1-2 years of high ceiling and then the Jets are back in rebuild/QB search mode which limits GW upside long term. Herbert is imo in the same tier as Caleb, but is 5 years older which is fine but you also added a 3rd on top which made this questionable to me. I don't dislike this trade, but I would have waited till midseason to make a move like this as the Jets might stink and the Chargers are quite bad offensively. This trade just doesn't move the needle for me enough to move off younger equal tier assets even in a "win now" team. Love the video, just my thoughts/opinion and I could easily be wrong lol
Appreciate the feedback! I see less risk with Herbert and Wilson just due to the proven track record of talent. They can absolutely disappoint in a single season, but there's still a reasonable floor.
Love the content and how you use data to communicate your points.
Doing my first ever Guillotine draft next weeks and I’m looking for high floor rankings since all I’m looking for half the season is to not be last, I don’t care if I’m the second worst team every week up until weeks 8-10 when I’m looking to spend my FAAB- any insights into Guillotine?
Thanks! Unfortunately, I haven't played guillotine before. But seems like you'd want to be more wary of rookie WRs and anyone entering the season with an injury. Probably want to prioritize the boring RBs with volume moreso than other formats.
We're all in, baby.
When I heard you say dynasty strategy I was ALL IN
I like having QB WR combo and Caleb and Rome will continue to grow. Now the draft pick you gave up that's where I think he won
@@matthuff9682 a 2026 3rd is worth less than 1% of the total value in this trade
I’m all in on Caleb Williams. He looks the part and has an amazing situation. Hope he puts it all together.
All In. Looking forward to the in season content
Love the content… All in!!!
Good trade, gang. We all in 😎
ALL IN! Ready for kick-off
All in! I get alot from your videos.
Speaking of Trevor Lawrence and Rome Odunze… I was offered trade I would be receiving Odunze.
SF .5 PPR Start 10
Would you do this trade?
QBs- Love, Caleb, TLaw, Nix, Darnold
WRs- Wilson, D. Smith, Kirk, McLaurin, Jameo, Polk, Leggett, Burton
@@ricardowright5772 Lawrence > Odunze. I see you’ve got an extra QB but I would need a +
you do need some help at QB... but IDK if i would give up a top 15 QB for Rome straight up... maybe counter with Nix or Darnold and add a future 3rd or 4th Rd pick
All In baby, one week away!
Aiyuk and a 2nd or tj hock and a 25 first .5 tep sf?
I lean the Hockenson side
I’m not necessarily all in on Caleb and Rome, but a factor that people don’t talk about often is that Wilson is already being valued as though he has broken out. He has not. Everyone talks about the terrible QB play he’s faced, but I haven’t heard even one statistic backing that up. Wilson is very much not at his floor right now, he has received an insane number of targets, even with this terrible QB play which somehow limits his upside, but not his targets. I’m unloading Wilson wherever I can.
Can you cite a reason for Wilson's struggles unrelated to QB play?
His ability to earn targets on a per route basis is on par with Ceedee Lamb and AJ Brown. So what is the specific deficiency in his game that has prevented him from scoring more fantasy points?
All in on the Falcons this year!
We are All in on BTJ
I'm All In on taking the floor into account in fantasy.
take the rookie hype.
I like Herbert too, think he is underrated bc he has no real weapons at the moment.
I See your Point. But you defently missed die Factor of marketvalue. Your could have gotten so much more imo for caleb and odunze. When everyone values upside and potencial so much, you should Base the Value on that, too. You should easily get playmaterial like Herbert and wilson + something like a 2nd round Pick on Top of it.
I definitely agree market value should play a role. I'm not sure I would have gotten more in my particular league, and I was quite happy with the return as a big believer in Wilson.
I am ALL IN on Caleb Williams and the Bears!!! BEAR DOWN, DA BEARS
Moving Caleb and Odunze is an all in move I'd have not made
Thinking of sending Nabers for Olave and a 2025 1st
I'm all in on Pure Potential
Hoping to get that All In sub!
I disagreed with you at first, but by the end you made me think you at least probably didn't lose the trade. I took Odunze in r3 of a 16 team sf dynasty start up so im hoping he pans out. Would you trade what's in that pokeball for a Nidorino?
@@MuscleMTG tough call. Nidoking is a pretty decent ceiling outcome, but don’t really need a ground type.
@PurePotentialFF Don't need a ground type eh... hmmm... clues...
I just offered Bryce Young for Bo Nix and a 1st. Nix went about 3 rounds after Young in the start up... Do you take Nix over Young straight up?
I got offered waddle and pitts for laporta and flowers mid last year and smash accepted. League wasn’t happy about the trade. Now it feels like a lost it😂
I still like your end but it's very close
All in like Jerry Jones baby!!
To quote Jerry Jones, "We're All In"
Would you do Jameson Williams for Rhamondre or Jameson and a 2nd for for Rhamondre and Hollywood? Trying to sell Jameson. Not sure he’s gonna do anything.
@@justsherman4 yes to both
@@PurePotentialFF ended up trading Jameson for Hollywood and a 25 2nd. Not the original idea but what it came down to.
I don’t think you won as much you believe, I love Garrett and Herbert is undervalued but give me Caleb by a decent margin and Odunze is probably just as good of a prospect as Wilson. Fair trade but give me the upside of the Bears stack
we all in baby
Just did something similar this offseason. Traded away Caleb and Deshaun Watson for Mahomes, Minshew, and a 25 2nd. 6 PT Passing TD. You like that?
Yeah, that's a smash for you
I’m All in on Pure Potential
All in baby let’s go
ALL IN. FOOTBALL.
All in it to Win it
All in baby!
I traded ladd McConkey and a 2nd for Olave. Lol ALL IN
I also traded Caleb Williams and Roschon Johnson for Herbert.
All in. You easily won that trade
I was offered David Montgomery, 26 first, 27 first for Kyren and 25 2nd
I am prob the favorite for the championship. 10T ST9 .5PPR
Should I accept this trade? I think it hurts my odds short term, but obviously sets me up ok long term
I would absolutely take the package side. Two 1sts for Kyren is outrageous!
@@PurePotentialFF even though it's not until 26 & 27?
Traded for CD in dynasty. ALL IN for 2024
Dk ,Dak , 2025 1st, 2025 2nd for (J Hurts and AJ Brown i get this)
Is that a good trade? Superflex league
Yeah I like the Hurts side
All in my friend :)
I am definitely ALL IN
im all in paul
Im all in but im not a cowboys fan
I'm more "All In" than Jerry Jones
I’m All In!
ALL IN 🙏
ALL IN 🐐
I traded dj Moore for Jj McCarthy
ALL IN!
im all in on london idc
I don’t feel strongly that you are wrong…but you’re asserting (according to your values) a 90% chance of winning trade is too spicy….The Jets organization is a hot mess and Aaron Rodgers is coming off a torn Achilles so there is a lot of risk….also Rodgers isn’t long for the league (he is old) so you have to ask how confident am I the jets will get a decent QB AFTER Rodgers is done? I have zero confidence in that organization. Wilson as great as he is needs a QB to get him the ball. Herbert in the long run should be fine…and I’m not saying your take is awful…but I think it’s closer to a coin flip….oh and comparing Odunze’s profile to other 1st round WR busts sounds good…but Matt Harmon at Reception Perception has his profile as elite elite….unlike other 1 dimensional prospects who run fast …but who are inept route runners..so….just saying 90%….probability you win that trade? I don’t see it the same way….but I appreciate the take.
Hey, appreciate the feedback! The 90% number was to win the trade OR break even. If Caleb outpaces Herbert but Wilson remains firmly ahead of Odunze, it's a push. If Caleb and Herbert end up in the same tier and Garrett and Odunze are same tier, it's a push.
The lack of downside was really key for me to accept. I don't think I'm likely to win the deal in a landslide because I do believe in both Bears players.
@@PurePotentialFF Ok….so yeah…That’s fair…🫡
I’m all in
All in!
I am ALL IN
All in 🎉🎉 booty booty 🎉🎉
All-in
All in
All in your comments
🤯
Yeah this trade is a no brainer. Especially if you are a contender or even borderline contender. I’m not waiting a season or two for Rome to become what Wilson already is. Also I’m ALL IN
Hi kirby
All in!
All In
All-in
All in
All in
ALL IN
All in
All In
ALL IN