Everytime I listen to Larry I feel like I’m part of a secret society of very smart rich people. And I just found him a couple years ago. If only I would have found him 5-10 years ago.
Larry is a very experienced trader with at least 50 years experience. Having read several of his books, I can tell you it is well worth hearing his opinion about the markets.
Insightful as always Larry, great comment on inflation no one will discuss on mandated supply issues and their effect on supply and demand. Not very politically correct to expose taking persons out of the supply chain for covid fears, maybe a greater cause of inflation other than bulging dollars printed to pay for narrative of covid. Hopefully this will resole itself as a voter issue and the old saying of not being able to fool all the people all the time will prevail and a realistic approach to business and the economic health of all American citizens will rise over political ambitions and goals. My father told me son take care of business and business will take care of you, if not business can not take care of you. This is true to a country as it is to the individual. Again thanks Larry Steve
Thanks Larry. Nice presentation n appreciate it. I agree with your macros. Last fall I expected by the spring we'd see inflation growth rollover n the data. My biggest concern now is how aggressive central banks are acting. Their communications policy is part of the problem. I miss the Greenspan days. Once the market expects lower future inflation, the 30-year bond yield falls n bonds rally, Ill feel better. I just don't trust policymakers at present. Central bankers always over do things. Thks n have a great week!
inflation causes recession, recession reduces inflation. people buy gold when inflation is rising, makes sense they would sell it once a recession sets in 20 mins to illustrate this extremely basic principal took me 3 sentences
This guy is fulla’ bones. He’d be standing on the deck of the Titanic giving a lesson on ‘what typically happens when a ship hits an ice bucket’ and explaining how one should invest in White Star Line.
We don't trade the economy, we trade the stock market. I would advise anyone who thinks that "recession" and "bear market" are synonymous, to compare long term charts of both. You will see that the market always peaks before a recession begins, and always bottoms before a recession ends. There is a relationship between the market and the economy, but factors beyond the economy (such as mass psychology) affect stock market prices. The best market analysis uses only market prices, volume, and breadth. Leave recession worries and predictions to the economists.
@@blazetrader (1) I agree. I don't use recession data for anything. (2) Every major bear market has been preceded by an extended interval of bearish NYSE cumulative breadth divergence from SPX price, from 2008 all the way back to 1929. When a significant decline in price occurs during such a divergence interval, that's the only time I'll go short. Like now, for instance. But I always have a stop in case it doesn't work.
@larry williams 30+ years ago I learned from Stan Weinstein the importance of the cumulative advance-decline line in calling significant market declines. Bearish divergence began last July. Today, "Nasdaq on track for biggest monthly loss since 2008", says the headline. I've been long a ton of QID. Don't need no stinkin' recession! 🙂
The current story about “inverted yield curve” is a fallacy…FED is to slow down the overheated market for a longer term growth. Agree v much that it is important to grasp the pullback opportunities while inflation peak out(often media will only stick with the peak and will not remind ppl about “peak out”😉）. You are the one alerting it in well advance.
THANK YOU LARRY! What a relief to hear your forecast with all that is happening in the world today. Unfortunately Stock Charts limits videos to 30 min-- could you maybe next time do your favorite stocks and gold last? Your Forecast are so great- and have been so spot on for previous years- 2020 was also a scary market but I stayed in in part due to you. This has been a tough year so far for the stock market but after hearing from you and Mr.Fisher ( who also thinks inflation is peaking) I feel better about it . Cramer would like to hear from you.
I've been following Larry for many many years but back then we had to rely on newsletters and phone hotlines for our updates. Today thanks to the internet we are able to get timely videos of Larry's view on the markets which in my opinion is invaluable. I just hope people today realize how lucky we are to have these amazing free videos to learn from. As always Larry thanks for your kindness and willingness to share your knowledge, its greatly appreciated.
Hi. The 10 year 3 months yield curve was always a better indicator. I read a lot about it. For example in June 1998, the 10 year 2 year yield curve inverted and the 10 year 3 months never inverted and no recession up until the 10 year 3 months inverted in July 2000 and the 10 year 2 year inverted again in Feb 2000
I have watched only a few Larry Williams videos. He seems to be a perma bull - stocks will never go down - they only go up. Even in a recession, stocks will go up. He is the biggest perma-bull I have ever seen - every dip must be bought. And he could well be right - I wish him well.
I've been following you for decades Larry. Thanks for showing us a different perspective. Trading successfully depends on looking from a dozen different angles in multiple time frames.
Thank you, Larry. I always appreciate your sage advice and perspective. I wish you hadn't run out of time in this video. I'd like for you to have been able to spend more time on your last few slides. But I know stock charts holds the videos to 30 minutes. I always look forward to your presentations. Thanks again.
Larry, first time I have listened to your presentation. I can't thank you enough for the economic history you have provided today. A fact based presentation that let's the individual make their own investment decisions based on historical facts. Well Done Sir.
Back in the early 80's we didn't have near as much debt. Do you think the fed is going to raise the fed funds rate to over 18% like they did back then? There is no way that can happen with today's debt load.
The only issue with any of this perspective IMO.. late to end stage capitalism and consumerism. If you believe this economy isn't in a Japan style hyper inflationary environment then it all makes sense. If you don't, then ya gotta flip the narrative. JMO. Thanks though Larry.
@@blazetrader IMO, I think it doesn't matter. They put themselves into a corner long ago. Whatever decision they make at this point doesn't fix inflation. It just sets the wheels in motion for asset devaluation. Japan hiked to cool the hyperinflated housing market and that was it. We just did the same last fed meeting. Cycles are cycles, especially economic ones, right? :)
Thanks so much Larry, I have been hoping to see your current perspective. Viola, I feel so much better. Thanks for all you do for us, you are 1 in a million and I am super grateful:)
So when we get an inversion we should buy gold. Sell in the beginning of a resession, then buy gold after the resession. It's always better to read the data rather than hearing from so called experts. (The people selling to the consumer).
@@blazetrader actually when every other commertial on tv is to buy gold I sell short. With in 2 months the price will go way down.. Hey, Larry love your work I purchase your add on form stockcharts. Appreciate your effort!
Amazing analysis and such a balanced approach - thank you for the video. Thank you Larry for all you do and share with us. Wishing you all the best in health and happiness - you're a true legend Sir!
Hi Mr. Larry .... Sorry if I will ask you this silly question being naive .... The 4th and the 5th of May the FED will do a 50 BASIS POINT hike ... Do you think doing that will push the DXY more higher to 104 ? And about the SP 500 more lower or this is the bottom please ?
This one is boggling me. How did you make the chart at 23:26? Is that a monthly year over year version of CPI or something else? Same question for the DJI. I cannot find any index that recreates those values.
Larry - As 'recessions' are called after the fact; typically 2 consecutive down QTRs; what is the trigger you are using to determine that we are at the start of the recession and sell gold?
Excellent update today and at such a critical time to show the Hurst power to foresee a big down move. The May 9-11 dates could be some crash scenario as another respected analyst has predicted MAY 11 as CRASH start. David does an outstanding job.
Having bought time solutions and all the williams indicators. Sometimes I scratch my head how he’s able to keep all the data straight. Larry is able to find the signal in the noise…somehow
Hi Larry, I wonder about the yield curve theory. You mention that the indicator doesnt come with good timing so lead between 10-34months. But in your case you take the 0.5% treshold not the 0% treshold. And the 0.5% seems to have been very on point with predicting the exact timing of an recession or am I wrong? Yes the 0% hasnt been a good timing indicator I guess. Or does Larry say it needs to get negative so below 0% and then above 0.5%? Any opininos are appreciated maybe I´m missing something.
legendary as usual 🙌🏼👏🏼👑 exceptly that higher inflation means higher wages 😅 higher wages yes but never at the same rate for most of the employees... applies unfortunately for the whole world...
I find that for intraday forex trend trading most important relevant (Guide)trend direction is ON 15 minute, 1h and 4h charts only-- For intraday trading weekly & monthly trends do not matter much(too far removed from intraday field of activity) & can be ignored. For simplicity sake if 15 minute ,1h & 4h trends are in the same direction, you have a trade set up in the same direction (one could fine tune entry 0n 5 minute charts). In general if daily candle be in the same direction for any trade it is better but not A must.--Sir, what do you have to say?
Hi Larry, I always look forward to your videos. Love the perspective you bring. I'm wondering if the market behavior in the last week has changed your mind and if you now expect the market to go much lower?
In hindsight, GLD (gold futures ETF) dropped 15% from Apr 18 to Jul 20, 2022. In 2022, gold tested both its 2020 peak and 2021 trough, dropping 18% from Mar 8 to Jul 20. 30:05 SPX closed at a bear market rally peak on Jun 2, dropped 13% and made the bear market trough on Jun 17.
Isn't inflation roll over after reaction to when stocks fall and fed want's to hold that bottom? So its the other way around. So the question and answer sequence is, when does the inflation roll over next?: When stocks fall a lot.
Mr Williams. Don't know if you read the comments but if you do is the stock market playing out as you expected? If I recall in January you thought up into April roughly then lower into July roughly then huge rally for rest of the year. Correct? So many pundits and seasoned traders are calling for a prolonged bear market now; getting scary.
@@louisestapleton8584 based on what? And did Larry's composite line not show a bottom sometime in July before starting the rally? Almost everyone seems to be calling for the market to see much lower lows at least into 2023 so I'm hoping we did in fact see bottom or will do so in July.
Larry, I will add that historically when ever crude oil went above $100.00 resulted in a recession. It's not all about the yield curve. Of course Russia could give us a black swan event.
way off - not inverted anymore ...gold Pegged to oil and Russia currency NOW gold standared not DeBT and stagflation, gold outperforms .. Golds long term 3-5 yr investment
It does not make any sense 2000 crash happened due to 9/11 2008 due liquidity crisis to bring down unemployment form 9% to 4% fed printed 20 trillion. it is something to lift a small stone you brought big crane . crane crushed the land instead of lifting the stone. now stocks went up without any meaningful earnings. will fed keep printing? markets re bound to crash
Boy Cramer was really wrong touting your rally several days ago. You and Cramer could not possibly have been more wrong. You two guys hurt everyone. How could your big bull call 4 days ago have been so dead wrong ?
Everytime I listen to Larry I feel like I’m part of a secret society of very smart rich people. And I just found him a couple years ago. If only I would have found him 5-10 years ago.
Me too
A voice of reason and calm amidst the commotion of the world, backed by facts and historical data rather than just an opinion. Thanks Larry!
Its always interesting to hear the thoughts of very experienced people, thank you very much for sharing Larry!
Larry is a very experienced trader with at least 50 years experience. Having read several of his books, I can tell you it is well worth hearing his opinion about the markets.
Larry's the best! A gift to us all. Thank you Larry.
I love you calling ourself a "Historian" vs a "technician". Perfect!
Love these updates, thank you!!
Great overview, as alwayse! Thanks a lot Larry!!!
Insightful as always Larry, great comment on inflation no one will discuss on mandated supply issues and their effect on supply and demand. Not very politically correct to expose taking persons out of the supply chain for covid fears, maybe a greater cause of inflation other than bulging dollars printed to pay for narrative of covid. Hopefully this will resole itself as a voter issue and the old saying of not being able to fool all the people all the time will prevail and a realistic approach to business and the economic health of all American citizens will rise over political ambitions and goals. My father told me son take care of business and business will take care of you, if not business can not take care of you. This is true to a country as it is to the individual. Again thanks Larry Steve
Thank you Larry! Great stuff as usual!
Thanks Larry. Nice presentation n appreciate it. I agree with your macros. Last fall I expected by the spring we'd see inflation growth rollover n the data. My biggest concern now is how aggressive central banks are acting. Their communications policy is part of the problem. I miss the Greenspan days. Once the market expects lower future inflation, the 30-year bond yield falls n bonds rally, Ill feel better. I just don't trust policymakers at present. Central bankers always over do things. Thks n have a great week!
inflation causes recession, recession reduces inflation.
people buy gold when inflation is rising, makes sense they would sell it once a recession sets in
20 mins to illustrate this extremely basic principal
took me 3 sentences
So inflation has peaked. It's buy buy buy, isn't it?
Good information!
GO AHEAD AND BUY THE BUBBLE TOP....THE WORD "VALUATIONS" HAS DISSAPEARED LOL
Larry, never BELIEVE the Fed… You never mentioned transitory inflation, Say What!….Lol
@@blazetrader Provocative analysis but again The Feds credibility is irreparably damaged...Thanks for the civil response
Extremely interesting. Thank you 👍
Powell has running with democrats slow to raise interest rate that's the true cause of inflation
@@blazetrader Without higher rate inflation will be even higher in Japan Hiher rate is headwind for inflation
This guy is fulla’ bones. He’d be standing on the deck of the Titanic giving a lesson on ‘what typically happens when a ship hits an ice bucket’ and explaining how one should invest in White Star Line.
That means buy the dip!!
Thank you Larry for fundamental analysis! What do think about British pound, or may be you have interesting trade for coming week?
We don't trade the economy, we trade the stock market. I would advise anyone who thinks that "recession" and "bear market" are synonymous, to compare long term charts of both. You will see that the market always peaks before a recession begins, and always bottoms before a recession ends. There is a relationship between the market and the economy, but factors beyond the economy (such as mass psychology) affect stock market prices. The best market analysis uses only market prices, volume, and breadth. Leave recession worries and predictions to the economists.
@@blazetrader I TOTALLY AGREE WITH LARRY ..!!
@@blazetrader (1) I agree. I don't use recession data for anything. (2) Every major bear market has been preceded by an extended interval of bearish NYSE cumulative breadth divergence from SPX price, from 2008 all the way back to 1929. When a significant decline in price occurs during such a divergence interval, that's the only time I'll go short. Like now, for instance. But I always have a stop in case it doesn't work.
@larry williams 30+ years ago I learned from Stan Weinstein the importance of the cumulative advance-decline line in calling significant market declines. Bearish divergence began last July. Today, "Nasdaq on track for biggest monthly loss since 2008", says the headline. I've been long a ton of QID. Don't need no stinkin' recession! 🙂
The current story about “inverted yield curve” is a fallacy…FED is to slow down the overheated market for a longer term growth. Agree v much that it is important to grasp the pullback opportunities while inflation peak out(often media will only stick with the peak and will not remind ppl about “peak out”😉）. You are the one alerting it in well advance.
Let’s see what the man has to say…
America needs to hear from you more than ever, Larry. You are a voice of reason.
Fascinating charts and information, Thank you, Larry. You the man
You welcome dear legend
thank you for sharing
Thank You Larry! & Thank You Stock Charts for having this video! Much appreciated... =)
THANK YOU LARRY! What a relief to hear your forecast with all that is happening in the world today. Unfortunately Stock Charts limits videos to 30 min-- could you maybe next time do your favorite stocks and gold last? Your Forecast are so great- and have been so spot on for previous years- 2020 was also a scary market but I stayed in in part due to you. This has been a tough year so far for the stock market but after hearing from you and Mr.Fisher ( who also thinks inflation is peaking) I feel better about it . Cramer would like to hear from you.
NDX Apr 11/14 a megaphone, a bullish reversal
I've been following Larry for many many years but back then we had to rely on newsletters and phone hotlines for our updates. Today thanks to the internet we are able to get timely videos of Larry's view on the markets which in my opinion is invaluable. I just hope people today realize how lucky we are to have these amazing free videos to learn from. As always Larry thanks for your kindness and willingness to share your knowledge, its greatly appreciated.
Love you Larry!
We wish you long and healthy life Larry! Hate to think of when we can no longer get your outlooks. Thank You!
They are GREAT
You are a perma bull like Tom Lee 😀
Larry you are so much in past, wake up
@@blazetrader Mr .Larry ingnore him ..... MAYBE HE IS JUST AN ENVY PERSON ........... ....... THANK YOU ONCE AGAIN LARRY
great show by Larry, How to subscrine his services and how to recreate his charts? i would like to know. have a nice week end and stay safe
@@blazetrader thanks. the question is how to get the charts you recommended. i was impressed with those. tahnks again. stay safe. my best
Thank You Larry for providing another forward looking tool!
HindSight is always 20/20 when you look at the past chart ! But the foresight is always blurred when you are full of BS !
Interesting gold vs recessions
Hi. The 10 year 3 months yield curve was always a better indicator. I read a lot about it. For example in June 1998, the 10 year 2 year yield curve inverted and the 10 year 3 months never inverted and no recession up until the 10 year 3 months inverted in July 2000 and the 10 year 2 year inverted again in Feb 2000
Gold prices falling at the beginning of a recession simlpy proves that when the brown stuff hits the fan everything gets sold.....
I have watched only a few Larry Williams videos. He seems to be a perma bull - stocks will never go down - they only go up. Even in a recession, stocks will go up. He is the biggest perma-bull I have ever seen - every dip must be bought. And he could well be right - I wish him well.
What recession?
I've been following you for decades Larry. Thanks for showing us a different perspective. Trading successfully depends on looking from a dozen different angles in multiple time frames.
Thank you, Larry. I always appreciate your sage advice and perspective. I wish you hadn't run out of time in this video. I'd like for you to have been able to spend more time on your last few slides. But I know stock charts holds the videos to 30 minutes. I always look forward to your presentations. Thanks again.
Do you buy his yearly report? That’s where the good stuff is.
@@joehill7099 where do buy it?
Larry's website: www.ireallytrade.com/
Larry, first time I have listened to your presentation. I can't thank you enough for the economic history you have provided today. A fact based presentation that let's the individual make their own investment decisions based on historical facts. Well Done Sir.
Very excellent thank you for all your hard work
Great look on data points! I wish you would do stock charts TV more often! I find great value in the way you look at markets!
Thanks again Larry always useful imformation on what’s real in the market
Thanks Larry, really appreciate your videos.
Thanks Larry, your Videos are of immense value !
Back in the early 80's we didn't have near as much debt. Do you think the fed is going to raise the fed funds rate to over 18% like they did back then? There is no way that can happen with today's debt load.
The only issue with any of this perspective IMO.. late to end stage capitalism and consumerism. If you believe this economy isn't in a Japan style hyper inflationary environment then it all makes sense. If you don't, then ya gotta flip the narrative. JMO.
Thanks though Larry.
@@blazetrader IMO, I think it doesn't matter. They put themselves into a corner long ago. Whatever decision they make at this point doesn't fix inflation. It just sets the wheels in motion for asset devaluation. Japan hiked to cool the hyperinflated housing market and that was it. We just did the same last fed meeting. Cycles are cycles, especially economic ones, right? :)
Really really good analisys. Very helpful to me. I'll print the sheets and keep for the future. Thanks a lot
Thanks so much Larry, I have been hoping to see your current perspective. Viola, I feel so much better. Thanks for all you do for us, you are 1 in a million and I am super grateful:)
So when we get an inversion we should buy gold. Sell in the beginning of a resession, then buy gold after the resession. It's always better to read the data rather than hearing from so called experts. (The people selling to the consumer).
@@blazetrader yep...and are coincidentally pushing a hyperinflationary depression. Quite the phenomenon.
@@blazetrader actually when every other commertial on tv is to buy gold I sell short. With in 2 months the price will go way down.. Hey, Larry love your work I purchase your add on form stockcharts. Appreciate your effort!
Amazing analysis and such a balanced approach - thank you for the video. Thank you Larry for all you do and share with us. Wishing you all the best in health and happiness - you're a true legend Sir!
All respect and love to Larry
Thanks Larry. I appreciate you doing these videos.
Larry is spot on .
Hi Mr. Larry ....
Sorry if I will ask you this silly question being naive ....
The 4th and the 5th of May the FED will do a 50 BASIS POINT hike ...
Do you think doing that will push the DXY more higher to 104 ?
And about the SP 500 more lower or this is the bottom please ?
Sorry Do you mean we are done from going more lower for the SP500 ?
Thank you so much Larry. Excellent analysis and insights as always.
Thank you Mr. Larry
Thanks Williams👋
FASCINATING !!😄 That inflation buy signal was right on point!!
Love this: "IT'S BETTER TO BE A HISTORIAN THAN A TECHNICIAN" thanks Larry
Thank you Larry! You are absolutely amazing as always!
Hello, where can I go to review and look up the graphs that were used in this presentation? If possible Please kindly advise, thanks!
This one is boggling me. How did you make the chart at 23:26? Is that a monthly year over year version of CPI or something else? Same question for the DJI. I cannot find any index that recreates those values.
very well spoken and realistic, thank you!
Thank you Larry!
Thank you for the great retrospective analysis and the positive attitude 🖤
Larry - As 'recessions' are called after the fact; typically 2 consecutive down QTRs; what is the trigger you are using to determine that we are at the start of the recession and sell gold?
Excellent update today and at such a critical time to show the Hurst power to foresee a big down move. The May 9-11 dates could be some crash scenario as another respected analyst has predicted MAY 11 as CRASH start. David does an outstanding job.
Fantastic commentary Larry!
Wonderful video. Thank you
Thanks for the insight
Having bought time solutions and all the williams indicators. Sometimes I scratch my head how he’s able to keep all the data straight. Larry is able to find the signal in the noise…somehow
Thanks Larry. Need another video soon.
this week!! stay tuned
Hi Larry, I wonder about the yield curve theory. You mention that the indicator doesnt come with good timing so lead between 10-34months. But in your case you take the 0.5% treshold not the 0% treshold. And the 0.5% seems to have been very on point with predicting the exact timing of an recession or am I wrong? Yes the 0% hasnt been a good timing indicator I guess. Or does Larry say it needs to get negative so below 0% and then above 0.5%?
Any opininos are appreciated maybe I´m missing something.
legendary as usual 🙌🏼👏🏼👑 exceptly that higher inflation means higher wages 😅 higher wages yes but never at the same rate for most of the employees... applies unfortunately for the whole world...
As always, another great update and breakdown.
Best Larry 👍
I find that for intraday forex trend trading most important relevant (Guide)trend direction is ON 15 minute, 1h and 4h charts only-- For intraday trading weekly & monthly trends do not matter much(too far removed from intraday field of activity) & can be ignored. For simplicity sake if 15 minute ,1h & 4h trends are in the same direction, you have a trade set up in the same direction (one could fine tune entry 0n 5 minute charts). In general if daily candle be in the same direction for any trade it is better but not A must.--Sir, what do you have to say?
Hi Larry,
I always look forward to your videos. Love the perspective you bring.
I'm wondering if the market behavior in the last week has changed your mind and if you now expect the market to go much lower?
a new one this week is coming!
@@louisestapleton8584 Maybe maybe not, but first we have to hit 4250-4300
Imagine getting bullish when this video came out
You’d have made so much money the past 3 months
In hindsight, GLD (gold futures ETF) dropped 15% from Apr 18 to Jul 20, 2022. In 2022, gold tested both its 2020 peak and 2021 trough, dropping 18% from Mar 8 to Jul 20.
30:05 SPX closed at a bear market rally peak on Jun 2, dropped 13% and made the bear market trough on Jun 17.
Guru
WAS it time to get bearish? Now we know the answer.
yes a little but long term---i don't think so---only time will tell
Isn't inflation roll over after reaction to when stocks fall and fed want's to hold that bottom? So its the other way around. So the question and answer sequence is, when does the inflation roll over next?: When stocks fall a lot.
Mr Williams. Don't know if you read the comments but if you do is the stock market playing out as you expected? If I recall in January you thought up into April roughly then lower into July roughly then huge rally for rest of the year. Correct? So many pundits and seasoned traders are calling for a prolonged bear market now; getting scary.
think we finally bottomed---ready to rally
@@louisestapleton8584 based on what? And did Larry's composite line not show a bottom sometime in July before starting the rally? Almost everyone seems to be calling for the market to see much lower lows at least into 2023 so I'm hoping we did in fact see bottom or will do so in July.
Larry, I will add that historically when ever crude oil went above $100.00 resulted in a recession. It's not all about the yield curve. Of course Russia could give us a black swan event.
👍
I've started my bear strategy two weeks ago.
@@blazetrader Thanks, just to be clear I don't think we are in a bear market but I think there is a lot more risk to the down side before a reversal.
When is it good time buy?..when there's blood in the streets
I think 2021 was like 2013, and 2014 was not a good year.
way off - not inverted anymore ...gold Pegged to oil and Russia currency NOW gold standared not DeBT
and stagflation, gold outperforms .. Golds long term 3-5 yr investment
It does not make any sense
2000 crash happened due to 9/11
2008 due liquidity crisis
to bring down unemployment form 9% to 4% fed printed 20 trillion.
it is something to lift a small stone you brought big crane . crane crushed the land instead of lifting the stone.
now stocks went up without any meaningful earnings.
will fed keep printing? markets re bound to crash
Boy Cramer was really wrong touting your rally several days ago. You and Cramer could not possibly have been more wrong. You two guys hurt everyone. How could your big bull call 4 days ago have been so dead wrong ?