[PoE 3.24] Is Creating "The Adorned" Better Than Buying One? | Is it Profitable? | 104x Sets + Data
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- Опубліковано 23 кві 2024
- Part 1 of Series (The Mad King):
• [PoE 3.24] Is "The Mad...
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![[PoE 3.23] The Infinite Base "Loop" That Made Me 7 Mirrors in 3 Days](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/y1ysHSpBH_A/mqdefault.jpg)
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yo anyway you could get rid of services fees for mirror crafting to your patreon members?
Technically yes I could , as not charging a fee is something quite a few streamers are doing now as a means to earn money through subs and ad revenue that accompanies the increased viewership.
My personal belief is that this tethers a line too close to RMT and crosses an ethical boundary which is incompatible with my stance on the matter that has been well established at this point, albeit outwardly focused.
If I cannot hold myself at a bare minimum to the same standard that I hold others then I would not only be a hypocrite , but I would be abandoning my values for money which I will not do.
If you are thinking of being a patron , or if you are currently a patron, based on this contingency… you have my gratitude for your support but with my full understanding and endorsement should you withdraw that desire and/or refund that support if you have been misled into thinking this would be the case.
I would be happy to help you, however, (patron or not) into learning ways to support that desire through increased proficiency with in-game currency acquisition.
Cheers boss!
@@BeltonPoEW take as always
@@BeltonPoE i appreciate the response and completely understand your viewpoint ...although i am currently not a patreon this wouldnt sway me not to be but it does in fact make me want to support you. ive learned a few methods of earning currency from your videos already...you're a class act my friend.
@@nunyabusiness8265 god bless brotha 🙏🏻
Homeless man discovers POE 2024 colorized.
Homeless man in NA****
…I’m a fucking Duke in Europe tho
Can’t forget exchange rates when commenting on matters of appearance**
@@BeltonPoE where did this come from?
@@derlou88 Not Europe!
@@BeltonPoE hahah
@@BeltonPoE weird, insecure comment
Thank you Belton for helping to flood the market with adorned jewels so i can buy one for cheap.
Gotchu homes 📈🫡
Gotta appreciate the effort it took to even organize all of these. Great vid
Amazing rolls. Way to go, buddy.
James Belton this is your mother. You need to shave.
I did 10 sets and my best was a 141. Still a big upgrade for my Adorned RF Chief who was running a 117 before that!
Fun Video to watch Belton, as usual
Great fucking content, the vids are getting better as well, can absolutely tell you putting way more effort into streamlining the whole thing, keep slayin!
Thanks homie appreciate you saying that / noticing!
Thanks for the information!
6:49 Belton is God confirmed
Goldrim Sachs is now a tax exempt guild! Apply today!!
Being a mathematically enclined gambler yourself, you may want to consider hitting a big roll early and quitting doesn't mean more profit unless continuing is -EV (either it was -EV from the start or is becoming -EV because of price drops of the jewel or price increase of the components for example).
Yes, it means more profit/hr but that'd be a very result oriented approach as you should rather target making +EV decisions (mathematically speaking at te least).
PoE is such a great game as there is so many arbitrage situations where so many decisions are +EV to the point where it becomes more about choosing the most +EV situation suiting your own risk tolerance and proper bankroll management.
Would love to hear your thoughts on this in the future. Great job and thank you for the content.
agreed
that 112 roll made me burst out laughing lmao
Will be releasing follow up videos on all stages of the “supply chain” to support or discredit the hypothesis offered at the beginning of the first video in this series, with this being the second. Stay tuned!
Part 1: ua-cam.com/video/UUHH_a_l6PE/v-deo.html
that 112% was wild
Did Belton deep fry his video capture in this video?
The 112% is your 420 moment LOL
Bros made so much money he’s turning green! ☘️
Last name ever, first name greatest
kek
Discount double check
Like this league boy I ain't nothing to play with
Bro what's that build, every item looks so fly..
"Im god" had me spitting my coffee out
would you have any gigachad gear that will go with a scion armour stacking type build?
I do actually lol, I have a global defence + fire overcap grasping mail that is clean (not fractured/synthed/influenced/corrupted) that I bought very early on. Nothing else yet but I’ll likely make a couple things as the league progresses - armour stacker gear tends to gain value/demand over the time as the build is quite expensive and can be very very expensive if min maxed.
With that said, Misha often crafts the mirror items for the build as he plays it every league and him and I are buddies/ chat in game often so I try to not step on his toes since mirror crafts tend to be zero sum ventures and I have other options since it’s not a build I actually play.
@@BeltonPoE actual chad move
How does his camera get worse somehow it seem? Is it just a meme at this point?
What are you talking about when you say "The lock on magic item crafts makes implicits free" ?
Praise be to the high lord
always loved adorned gamba
dropped my first mirror today in a Citadel T17 & sold and saw this vid, turned my 675d into 1450d off of adorned rolls
gg
correction there is no time at which it is mathematically correct to stop wither u hit 150 or not or even if u hit it a 100 times. the statistical probability does not change depending on weather u rolled the best roll early or not each roll is independent of the previous one. if it is on a average profitable to roll the dice at the start it does suddenly change when u get a perfect roll anyone who says otherwise does not know statistics
He said specifically if you’re doing this to profit. Using common sense, if you hit something that is a 1/101 in a lot less tries, it is best to leave while you are up.
It’s also mathematically a better profit rate per hour which is typically how currency acquisition is measured (as a rate), and not in the absolute. Furthermore there’s market saturation and the time value of currency to consider- that is what I meant although I did a poor job articulating that as I did the video live without a script and was also reading the numbers out while trying to express the point
@@Smoothcarries Your chance to hit 1/101 at least once in 101 tries is 63.39% . That being said, it makes no sense to stop if you hit in "lot less". As op very correctly stated - you hitting it once, does not change the probability of further hits at all, and if your expected value was positive on 1st try, it will be positive on any subsequent tries provided the price stays the same. Even if your goal is to farm perfect adorned for yourself, at the pricepoints from time of the video your decision to sell the excess stock means you are losing money long term.
@@BigFx Never said it changed your probability, nor did I ever question the statistical probability. Idk why you’re restating any of that to me. All I’m saying is a practical application of the real world: “If you’re going for profit” you should stop if you hit big quicker than expected. All I said.
Worth mentioning, the expected return on 100 of these is almost exactly the value of a single 150%. So for consistent profit without taking any appreciation into account, you'd probably want a minimum sample size of 200 if not higher.
Throughout out league did 11 adorned, first one 150 then consecutive adorned are lower than 100. But got lucky on last 2 got 138 and 130.
I feel like an idiot for just grinding out sanctums hoping to get 10d/hour....
Keep grinding, first You need to get 1600+ divines for 100 sets to make profit without risk of bad rng
me too... it's the representation of my life... always doing everything as inefficiently as possible 😂😂
@@Elldar111 mathematically speaking, if you want the risk to be below 2 sigmas (95%) you would need 200 sets. At 100 sets, your probability of turning profit is little below 68% . This happens often in "poe math" (essence spam until you hit some other t1 for example) in general, if an event has a 1/X chance of happening, repeating it X times means that your chance for it to occur at least once is "only" roughly 2/3 , and definitely not 100%.
6:39 - 7:33 to witness irrefutable proof that I have neckbearded my way into omnipotence
My guild, Goldrim Sachs, will be applying for Tax Exempt Status with GGG on the morrow, given recent developments, as we transition into our newfound role as a religious institution.
🙏🏻
Church of Mirrors when?
@@johnturtle6649The United Church of Amirrorca
…coming soon!
@@BeltonPoE I would like to request a membership!
Gday Boss i hope you are well?
Numbers are kinda inflated because if insane price of 150% adorned. Remove the 150% one from the data, the EV of adorned goes down hard.
Everyone in twitch chat getting thrown haymakers😂😂😂
Twitch chat can’t stop talking about being “farmers”…. They are LITERAL hay-makers (they’ll live 😂) 🚜🧑🌾
hell yeah giga charles
🥂🧐
Doing Canada proud
Have to compensate for Trudeau! 🤪🤣
@@BeltonPoE I think if we all will it strongly enough we can finally yeet him into the sun login
@@BeltonPoE I'm from Turkiye so can we send Trudeau, Erdogan and probably Biden to some good vocation in SUN XD So you should lead Canada instead i mean with that much efficiency you could make Canada move to next tier on tech XD
I did some quick math last league and found that crafting the adorned in bulk will yield a profit. But roughly 80% of the time you run at a loss.
So if you’ve got a ton of currency already you can make a ton more. But if you’ve only got enough for 1 or 2 tries you’re better off buying it.
My guy! You look tired and worn. Possibly time to take some time to yourself? Get good sleep, take your mind off things... get a haircut? Worried about you. You're an asset to the whole PoE community, we need you in good shape. Take care of yourself bud.
Figure your breakpoints, buy an Adorned in that hits them all below 150% and save a vast amount of currency.
For me, better to make one. My third attempt was a 145% adorned. I have no idea what the odds are but it is what it is. Had enough spare pieces to make two for my guild leader as well. First was 79%, second I let him do on his own and haven't heard back yet. Collecting the pieces isn't fun, but I weighed that against endless chance/scours for vaal side areas. Edit: I actually farmed them too, not purchased.
first name is beltonpoe
Poe and ggg have been 100% sold to sixjoy Hong Kong Limited
Are you a time traveler from 2018 bringing us news for the distant past
112 wtf
28:50 To get Rich you need to be rich essentially XD If you win 3/4 of the time and have 1 bullet you have 1/4 chance to lose it but if you have 4 bullet even if two of your bullet miss that 2 or 1 win can make you rich depend on the situation. More money you have make it easy to counter looses XD especially if you lose back to back you need to be able to keep going until odds are in your favour if math on your side
g.o.a.t.
what's the point about 112?
He called random number, and rolled it immediately
TLDR it was irrefutable proof that I am, in fact, omnipotent.
thank you@@BeltonPoE
The 112%%😂😂😂😂😂 OMG lol
william
Jesus bro
Aaaaand the profit is dead
How to make currency? Just roll 2 150s 4Head Haha
If you watch the whole way through I actually do the math/show the values removing one of the 150% rolls entirely. There are 101 possible outcomes , meaning it takes 101 jewels on average to hit 150%- since I assembled 104 it was expected to hit at least 1.
removing the second 150% jewel, the profit went from slightly over 900 divines to 460.
If you removed both, which would be silly, since as I mentioned we had more than the average amount needed to hit one statistically- but as a hypothetical… IF you removed BOTH 150% rolls… it would have been 25 ish divines profit.
The whole process took just under an hour.
I’m quite certain 99% of people watching / reading this make less than 25 divs an hour.
We just happened to make 900.
4head indeed
It's like a 35% chance to not hit a single 150 in 104 tries, so the odds are definitely in your favour (not enough for me lol).
I can’t make videos about your propensity for risk.
ahhh sorry dude. I went to leave you a like but it was on 150... so i couldnt do it XD
1st
You're not God.
You look like butcher from the boys after playing 1 year of poe.
12 hours of twitch chat questions a day will have that “losing my wife and child to a sadistic super hero” effect on even the most resilient of men .
@@BeltonPoE scorched earth
Lost 40div making 5 of them a week ago.