Why is there not even one single analyst talking about the risk that has been created by the Fed by keeping 300 year low interest rates for the past 15 years? (This has never been done before.) Not ONE single analyst has so much as even raised this issue?
Sorry, Adam, the chart I looked at is HSGFX. That's someone's life-savings he shamelessly loses, year in year out, by being unaccountably crap at his job.
Adam, you should try to conceal your excitement when interviewing bears 😂 John is a class act, I've followed him for years, his cautious stance will be proven right, I think we are making a generational top here
Hussman sounds like he knows what he's doing. But the reality can be seen in the development of his investment fund: HSGFX ------- what a disaster! DISASTER !!!!!
Cool. When did you get out of the market? How will you know when to get back in? This guests investment returns over the last two decades have been embarrassingly awful, just in case he didn’t mention it in the interview.
@@JRRob3wnTotally correct. But I have no reason to NOT believe his data and conclusions at the current time. I agree with his assessment that upside is quite limited and there is a very real chance outsized reversions may occur.
if there are derisive comments it could be because Wealthion and Stansberry and many others have been calling for a stock market crash for YEARS now. Maybe they got the narrative wrong. You might want to check out Raoul Pal and his everything code for another view. Also check out Brent Johnson and his theories. He has made a number of major correct calls re Dollar and equities over the past 5 years. Was there a "great reset" of some kind in 2008? Look at the DXY since 2008. If that's not a bullish trend I don't know what is. Could it really be the global liquidity runs the equity markets and not what this guest suggests?
Adam - I believe you're a fan as I am of Mike Maloney and something Mike said occurs to me as I look at Dr. Hussman's chart at 1:28:00. Mike said in the short-term the stock market is a voting machine, but in the long-term the stock market is a weighing machine. In other words, the purpose of markets is providing a value finding function. That means a correctly functioning stock market is doing its job finding the appropriate value for stocks given sufficient time. That makes Dr. Hussman's chart look like a beautiful representation of the stock market finding value over time, a long time. Notice how the solid dark blue line seems to try to come back to the solid green line, and the further away it strays the further it must correct to the other side as it tries to account for the "imbalance". That is very noticeable where the chart starts in 1929, for example. Afterward, the dark blue line appears to (slightly) peak above or dip below the dark green line in almost perfectly predictable fashion until 2007. In 2007 the pattern would suggest we should have dipped below the green line again (significantly) for around 10 years or so. That didn't happen. Continuing the scale analogy it looks distinctly like someone put their thumb on the scale... We know there is a bad consequence to doing that, because it throws things off, giving false readings. That reminds me of the point in the talk were you and Dr. Hussman talk about the physics of a universe unexpectedly changing.
@1:18:40 -- Regarding John's observation that we've seen lots of stimulus, but little growth in productivity ... ... public debt targeted at consumption practically never increases productivity; the only thing it 'stimulates' in the long run is inflation.
These guys should go in more detail when they say stocks will crash 50-70% because small and mid caps are still down 50-90%. So are just the big caps crashing? Small cap coming up? Equaling out? Or are small and mid caps going to 1$? I’m pretty sure mag 7 and big caps may come down but I don’t see small caps coming down nor do I see large caps coming down 50-70% but if they do that sounds like a buy the dip 🤔
It's just not that simple. Looking at the example of the Dot Com crash, respectable companies like Cisco and Lucent became dead money, high flyers like JDS Uniphase and Global Crossing collapsed, and stoic companies like Apple and Amazon regrouped, pivoted, and came out swinging towards the end of the 2000s. Macro analysis can predict none of this, because the success or failure of any one company is too granular to be decided by macro trends. Individual fundamental analysis will be needed to pick winners or losers. For those who don't recall the product called Value Line Investment Survey, they probably haven't developed the skill to do deep dives into companies prospects. But even Value Line came up with a score for the strength of a company that was a reasonably good indicator of whether a company could survive through multiple business cycles.
Big caps like Meta went down 75%. Why shouldnt that happen again? We are in the same situation as end of 2021 in terms of valuation, even worse in some respects.
@@wheatandtares9764 nah we in the bull market big caps will pull back because they are way over valued then money will go in small and mid caps so the market evens out then it all will continue probably for 3-5 years before something big happens
@@mwilliamson4198 Correct. There is no “if” in that. Amusing how many here have convinced themselves that there is no chance of a market reversal. One of the signs of a top.
Sadly all the 401k people and pensions funds are stuck and unable to navigate this. I'm in cash and collecting interest and, yes, saving and stacking cash like a fiend. Been living this way for several years. There is a reason patience is a virtue and greed is a sin. Being a debt slave / serf is no way to go through life, either but people want new, shiny over what they can really afford if they were honest.
I changed my 401K to Bonds. It’s still not risk free but I feel a hell of lot safer with 100% bonds right now than I do with 100% equities which is what I was doing. Moved over the minute S&P hit 5400 and started seeing all of the negative sentiment lately. Seems like a good call.
Sure but having too much in cash means you miss the melt up. That said I have made some bad mistakes with tech - especially with the tech wreck - but I have also made some decent returns participating in the momentum market.
Stocks haven't reflected their actual value since Reagan took office some forty five years ago. It's a pure speculative Bingo parlor where perception rules, not ROI or dividends or anything that would resemble what stocks as a valid financial instrument were back in the day. So, of course, they could plummet 70% or more because there is no resemblance between price and their actual intrinsic value. For instance, a stock would never sell below what it's ROI and dividends produce discounted by the current interest rates unless rates were expected to rise thus devaluing the expected returns.
I admire John. Hv been reading his notes for years. His work is incredible well researched, honest and humble, great writing style and he's dogged despite the inevitable trolls. Pls get him on a gain soon. He's a prime catch.
If you bought at the highest price in 2000 2007 2022 and 2024 you are doing great today. My advice is try to buy at the worst price and you are golden.
I say this and time will tell , the market won't fall anytime soon , stay long till the snp at least reaches 6700 , nothing is stopping this rally, nothing , no one is interested in shorting it , and this market is disconnected from anything happening underneath, I believe all these people calling for a bear market are just bitter bears , nothing looks bearish on this market. It won't fall. Till 2025 at least
That’s only six months-on what date do you think we will see a correction-have you held on with 50% losses in the past-are you ok with riding out 5-7 years to get back to where your account value was-I have it’s not fun-put on your stops where you are comfortable
@@ScottRuark-q8x I know , we are bound to see an even higher rally than this , I stopped fighting the trend, and stopped believing these bears out here
Mostly an observed effect, with a little bit of insinuation by Fed officials. The Fed violated their own charter and the law by buying private assets such as corporate bonds. The insinuation is that there is no open market that the Fed might not try to intervene in so that they maintain their dual mandate. and oversight over banks.
Just a suggestion sir....a backdrop on your videos that better portrays your intelligence and stature....might be worth considering. :) Clothes don't make the man, but they can't hurt. And I don't mean your clothes, but the studio wall behind you. A fake bluescreen image would be great. A beach in Hawaii maybe... follow my guests as they prepare you for the retirement of your dreams might be an angle. ;)
Perhaps not that much, but when an asset class starts reverting towards the mean, it often overshoots the mean. It's the same principle but opposite direction of this current bubble.
A 15 year speculative market? Haha what a clown. I will take 15 years of gains and the 6 months of losses that might follow it. And wait for next 15 year run to start in month 7
I believe getting hold of John Husman was a major achievement for your program and a really great service to your subscriber and followers. Thank you Adam for your hard and excellent work !!
Folks have been sharing Hussman comments with me for decades. But when I look at his fund performance I see abysmal results. Am I missing something? I agree with John's thesis, but I just wonder why his analysis can't result in market outperformance over multiple market cycles.
Beneath the analysis are a few gems I hadn't heard before. Manage your capacity for regret. Prepare for being wrong and for being correct: you will experience both. Plan informed decisions ahead of time amap. Most of all, avoid reacting to the short term potent emotions of greed and fear which can override all of the above.
Apparently a really great guy, but lousy market predictor. This guy has predicted 12 of the last 2 bear markets lol. Check his funds, one of his main growth funds actually lost money over like a 10 year period that was one of the largest bull markets in history. If you completely miss one of the greatest bull markets in history, you are one of the very worst lol. Here was article in the middle of it..."learning-from-a-lagging-mutual-fund-1426259640" from WSJ.
I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Natalie Rose Strayer.
I'm surprised that you just mentioned Natalie Strayer here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
Natalie Strayer has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
Permanently elevated and continuously elevated PE/CAPE ratios brought on by ever-increasing debasement. As a young person wanting a generational buying opportunity, I wish he were right but I don’t think central banks will ever permit such a crash/devaluation to occur. The US government alone needs those tax receipts to mitigate the already insane debt levels thus its a matter of national security to keep assets permanently elevated. That and the wealth effect is the only keeping it consumption if only being done by the overwhelming minority. TL;DR - feels like animal spirits are tied to QE and the anticipation if only by viewing where rates are versus Fed Funds which would imply QE will come and even if we have a recession, ever-larger QE will occur to support assets and the systems that are dependent upon elevated asset values namely government “funding” and consumption.
In that case our purchasing power is cut by 50-70 percent and the gap between rich and poor would go to unbelievable margins and it might cause a revolt civil war and anarchy
Real, maybe, nominal, no chance. Dude has no clue about inflation. Dude needs to stop drinking his own Kool-Aid from 2000. He made a lucky call 25 years ago. Difference today is profit. He's been bearish for 10 years, absolutely crushing his investors, redemptions must be ugly for him to do a podcast.
There’s a lot of guys out there that made a right call once in their career and have been floundering since, trying to relive their glory days of correctly calling a correction. Hugh Hendry comes to mind.
Exactly. I keep bugging him in X of always ignoring inflation. His charts are never expressed in constant dollars or real returns. He never points out stocks have risen in no small part due to future inflation expectations.
@@JRRob3wn Exactly. Hasn't quite dawned on him yet that he could be fundamentally wrong about the markets. You might want to check out Raoul Pal and his everything code for another view. Also check out Brent Johnson and his theories. He has made a number of major correct calls re Dollar and equities over the past 5 years. Was there a "great reset" of some kind in 2008? Look at the DXY since 2008. If that's not a bullish trend I don't know what is. Could it really be the global liquidity runs the equity markets and not what this guest suggests?
Hussman is the greatest. How nice to have him on. I love his newsletter and analysis and he is completely correct that the absurd valuations must normalize. It’s going to be a rough road ahead.
@@variousstuff6469 The reason Mr. Hussman takes time to speak about past performance is that his long term record in Strategic Return is abysmal. Look at the 10 or 15 yr return stream..
Adam and this bear den ought to LOVE this guest😀 Unfortunately John has consistently underestimated the impact of money supply growth in fueling the massive bubble over the last decade. He WILL be proven correct.... just not yet...
One of favorite Wall Street phrases is “paper losses” The other is “paper profits” Unrealized Gains is perhaps the worst, as it feeds the former giving one a false sense of wealth.
Bill Gates retired off his paper profits. Heirs also receive a fictional stepped up basis from inherited property. My point is, the truly wealthy have assets that may never actualize a gain, yet their assets work for them in ways that increase their wealth without much effort. It's the ephemeral paper gains of volatile assets [*cough* GME *cough*] that yield a false perception not of wealth, but of purchasing power.
Thank you, Adam. I've followed Dr Hussman's commentary for some time, clearly grounded in agonizing detail, often beyond the reach of my left hemisphere. Started watching late, but hoping to hear how volcanic geopolitical events affect his outlook. A 50-70% asset price collapse seems almost rosy; 89% is not unthinkable.
His funds would probably be better if he just used SPY when his signals are bullish and Cash when they go negative. Rather than individual stocks and hedging
There are times past performance can be indicative of future results. If you look at past markets those drops are often the case. When you add in all the bubbles together and the economic dislocations and the potential black swans overhead if we get out with only a 50% loss we will be lucky. We are at a multi generational place in history and I could be very bad.
@@danielturner9832 Once again COULD. Market timing is a risky proposition. When do you get out? Where is the bottom? When to get back in? What if you get out, then you are wrong and the market never crashes?
@@JRRob3wn It always mystifies why investors should be looking for get in/get out points. All that does is multiply the risk of doing something dumb. Buy what you want and ride out the bumps you know will come. Stocks go up, then go down, then go up higher, then down and then even higher. That's why long term investors do what they do. There's nothing hard to understand about that. No genius is required.
Morningstar rating: 1 star Expense ratio: 1.2%!!! Performance: -40% in the last ten years! Underperformed the index by 4x!! Holds 40% short term treasuries!!! I wish somebody would pay me a 1.2% fee to hold short term treasuries for them!
he should just buy SPY when his model is pro market and just go to cash when model is negative market It looked like he would be killing the S&P index shown in one of the first charts
Take a stats class. Understand a Markov switching model, this presentation is terrible stats at work. When a model has only worked for a few weeks over the last 30+ years, your model is garbage. Even if one doesn't know anything about Finance, just basic stats would force anyone to dump this analysis, this is total garbage. Dude should have become a GP, he doesn't understand basic finance and stats.
I see this channel is still preaching doomsday while my portfolio continues to get fatter and fatter LOL. Fear sells and Adam is bankin from the sheep.
Adam, have you had a guest on that has analyzed the supply of publicly traded stocks and the demand ( money available ) to pay for $1 of earnings. The universe of publicly available companies has been declining over time, many particularly big public companies are have been repurchasing their stock - these two factors result in less supply. Meanwhile, particularly since 2020 the amount of money pumped into the economy has created more demand / $ chasing a smaller pool of equity - so stock prices & multiples have been going up. Is it possible that historic valuations aren’t the lens to view the current dynamics (all the $ pumped in since 2020) . With the historic money pump, Have we had a historic change in valuations?
Not so sure about this one. Gods, immortal or otherwise seldom Give up power freely as Prometheus can attest to. We know things changed post-GFC to liquidity from value stocks. Are they at the point where they can afford a market correction risking deflation?? Because then all past effort since 2020 is for nothing.
The market may continue to go up, if government keeps adding so much liquidity to the system. But we are in a bubble that will, at some point, have large losses. Go back and look at the GFC S&P topped at 1565 then fell to 676. Not a pleasant outcome, but we could see that again. What he is saying is: Look at the risk in your investments. How much might you lose? How much are you willing to lose. How do you minimize the loss?
Charts are showing Nvidia about to go higher again, the question being whether it breaks the previous high. We have gold and silver charts looking mouth-watering for a rise within the coming 1-2 months, THEN we may have a larger pull-back pre-election and the September bears coming in, with a gold and silver pullback again. After that point, we see what happens in the macro medium term, but the short term will see plenty of volatility to make money (and sell positions too of course). I don't see an everything crash this calendar year, but certainly some harsh corrections. This is not a market for the average bear (no pun intended). You need rationality, a strong stomach, and above all to work with what the charts are telling you, not what is going to happen at some point soon (but soon is a relative concept). Are we in for uncertain global events coming up? YES. We have the blackout, we have a lot of money deployed to tech underway, a bounce in gold and silver to come this summer, and a summer high to come. After that is anyone's guess.
As long as the 401K target date fund flows are positive, price will go up. The moment those flows reverse, the whole thing collapses. Mike Green explains the Ponzi quite well. The "money" is trapped, so there is no way for those 401K owners to withdraw. They have "wealth" on paper only.
Your comment is accurate only when you define the specific time period of interest. History is factual whilst forecasting is speculative. As said before, those who ignore the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them. What I find so interesting as John Hussman demonstrates the rate of return on T-Bills has historically exceeded rate of return from S&P 500 for approx 60% of the time over the last 100-years! So if one were to be invested in stocks when the market signals were positive and be in T-Bills during other times, then one would do significantly better than a "buy and hold" investor - see his graphic.
@@gerrymoore2481His fund is down 40% over the last ten years, has underperformed the index by a multiple of 4, he’s holds nearly 40% of his portfolio in short term treasuries and charges 1.2% for the pleasure of participating in all this awesomeness. By all means, put your life savings into his fund.
Awesome Adam, ive never seen hussman in an interview, been reading his website since 2016. Hoping i can find some actionables from this smart but Permabear.
Wow! What a session. Feels like I am attending the Econometrics Modeling class 29 yrs back. Only time will say which way the market will go, but I really enjoyed the session.
Great guest! Positivity was through the roof. I felt uplifted towards the end of this intetview. This man is humble & I think he is in touch with mortality. What really does matter? 10% 20% 1000% returns doesnt come close to the present. What is your time worrh?
Hussman is a great person, also very intelligent in so many areas. But many of his commentaries like "Why a 60-65% Market Loss Would Be Run-Of-The-Mill" from May 2019 are off the mark. Also, HSGFX which he manages has been a poor performer for almost a decade now (that is a long time!). The future is hard to predict even with all the brilliant analysis. A simple balanced fund would be great to own all these years with lower volatility and decent returns. I wish him luck this time around and for the future.
There is a very good chance that the S&P500 and Nasdaq have finally topped out today - I'm expecting some nasty big red candles over the next two weeks
Interesting interview. Hussman's long-term valuation fundamental analysis models are intuitive, understandable, make sense, and appear to be sound and analytically rigorous, based on solid math, probability and statistics. But with the increasing underperformance of these models not having as much relevance over the last 15 years, Hussman appears to be belatedly half-capitulating, half throwing in the towel, tacitly acknowledging that fundamental analysis doesn't work so well anymore. So he appears to be trying to compensate for that, to adapt and adjust, by supplementing and incorporating an increasing amount of short and medium term technical analysis into his work. But in so doing, Hussman, the erstwhile Mr. Math, abdicates and abandons any pretense of sound math and descends down into the realm of loosey-goosey heuristics and fuzzy math that typifies so much of technical analysis and its practitioners, the farcical dark-arts dog-and-pony schtick, witchcraft mumbo-jumbo voodoo alchemy of investment analysis, the waving-of-hands Wizard of Oz telling folks not to look behind the curtain. Hussman fails to define, with any specificity and analytical rigor, key terms he repeatedly uses that are central to his short and medium term technical analysis, such as "market internals" and "syndromes." What are the various sets of factors and conditions that make up the universe of "market internals" and the universe of "syndromes," respectively? He doesn't say, doesn't explain, and doesn't define. And for each factor or condition in each of those two broad categories ("market internals" and "syndromes"), what are their respective probabilistic relationships to various outcomes 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years later, and expected values thereof, with what statistical significance? Again, he doesn't say, doesn't explain, and doesn't define. [This is reminiscent of a charlatan like Michael Howell who will come on and bloviate ad-nauseum a big load of vague, ambiguous hot air about "liquidity," but is unable to define exactly what "liquidity" is and means, whereas a solid analytical guy like Steve Hanke will come on and fully explain and define "liquidity" with complete mathematical specificity.] With his analytical ambiguity and opaqueness, lack of mathematical specificity, his obfuscating, prevaricating, dissembling inability to precisely define the key technical analysis terms he uses, Hussman comes off as lacking in credibility and rigor, and looking like a charlatan, as do so many technical analysts. As such, all we are left to go on is Hussman's actual measurable performance in his management of his HSGFX investment fund. Nevertheless, I still find useful Hussman's long-term valuation fundamental analysis mathematical models, and I enjoyed the interview and found it worthwhile.
🗣️”Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria”. Sir John Templeton . This looks, feels and smells of Euphoria to me. This is where bull markets go to die. It is not where they are born.
People in the comments seem to miss what John is saying. John's point is that--based on current valuations--the expected return for the US market generally is about half of what it has been historically. Things could be different this time: market participants might be OK with a 5% return instead of a 10% return going forward, in which case stocks could remain at these high levels for quite some time. But if investor psychology changes at any point and market participants start demanding the forward returns they demanded in the past, there is a long way for stocks to drop. Thus his point is not that stocks will fall: it's that there's far more risk at these levels than there is potential reward.
We’re not going to see crashes like past in major indexes because Blackrock is getting better at reshuffling them to mask FTW5000 crashes. You’re going to have to pay more attention to equal-weight indexes
Correction always follows huge run ups-but maybe things have changed-use stop loss orders on your winners if you still feel comfortable with this market
Hello folks, just so you know there is no right or wrong in the way you trade or forsee the future direction of the financial market place, we can only trade and invest based on strict rules and you must have a system in place in order to succeed and beat the market. May the markets be with you.
The trigger that will set off the large implosion Will be the fed governors decompressing the treasury yield spread or fed Governor s slowing the quantitative tightening. Sounds paradoxical but that will be the critical moment. 😮
Do your own analysis, invest in what you know, and be patient for long term results. Amazon was dead money for its first decade as a public company. And even then really only got profitable when it leased its cloud servers through AWS that were originally developed for internal consumption. My grandfather was a zoologist and anatomy professor, yet he left an estate that will take two generations to drain. As a grade schooler he showed me a prospectus for a utility company and said he invested in their preferred stock. It took me a few years to fully understand what he was saying, and a lifetime to emulate his example.
Adam, have you had a guest on that has analyzed the supply of publicly traded stocks and the demand ( money available ) to pay for $1 of earnings. The universe of publicly available companies has been declining over time, many particularly big public companies are have been repurchasing their stock - these two factors result in less supply. Meanwhile, particularly since 2020 the amount of money pumped into the economy has created more demand / $ chasing a smaller pool of equity - so stock prices & multiples have been going up. Is it possible that historic valuations aren’t the lens to view the current dynamics (all the $ pumped in since 2020) . With the historic money pump, Have we had a historic change in valuations?
Not necessarily a historic change in valuations but there has been a historic change in money flows. Back in the day when companies offered defined benefit pensions, the plan administrators had the luxury of investing in just about anything an insurance company could invest in, namely private assets. The only concern was that the pension fund could deliver on its actuarial expectations. As the market for retirement benefits shifted to defined contribution plans, retirement savings got trapped in these trusts that had much more limited access to the capital markets, namely listed securities. The pressure to put these savings to work has been creating an artificial demand on securities. I can't see this trend reversing until trust owners take control over their IRAs and 401Ks and reallocate to private businesses, vaulted precious metals, etc. This would drain some liquidity out of the public markets and let them seek a fair risk adjusted price.
Hussman + New Harbor= great listening In terms of Hussman’s continual reference to psychology and sentiment, I would say reflect specifically on the volatility of these times. Wars, open borders, high cost of living, controversial elections; these times contain the elements where sentiment & psychology could turn on a dime. The potential for quickly changing sentiment negatively impacting markets is high.
Speaking of correlation, I have rarely intuitively believed an interviewee so much, but understood so little. So to resolve this, it's Au and Ag to put my tired head at rest.
IF YOU WANT TO SEE JOHN'S CHARTS in greater detail, read John's latest Market Commentary here www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc240623/
Thanks!
Why is there not even one single analyst talking about the risk that has been created by the Fed by keeping 300 year low interest rates for the past 15 years? (This has never been done before.) Not ONE single analyst has so much as even raised this issue?
Sorry, Adam, the chart I looked at is HSGFX. That's someone's life-savings he shamelessly loses, year in year out, by being unaccountably crap at his job.
@@boombustinvest Sounds like you have a podcast in you
The only chart I needed to see was that of his fund…going straight down for decades.
Adam, you should try to conceal your excitement when interviewing bears 😂
John is a class act, I've followed him for years, his cautious stance will be proven right, I think we are making a generational top here
Hussman must be one of the most thoughtful, level headed people in the industry. Thanks for having him on!
he's a broken clock that is eventually right. That is his long term results in the market.
Hussman sounds like he knows what he's doing. But the reality can be seen in the development of his investment fund: HSGFX ------- what a disaster! DISASTER !!!!!
It’s great to see so many derisive comments about this guest. The music will be stopping sooner than I expected.
Cool. When did you get out of the market? How will you know when to get back in? This guests investment returns over the last two decades have been embarrassingly awful, just in case he didn’t mention it in the interview.
@@JRRob3wnTotally correct. But I have no reason to NOT believe his data and conclusions at the current time. I agree with his assessment that upside is quite limited and there is a very real chance outsized reversions may occur.
if there are derisive comments it could be because Wealthion and Stansberry and many others have been calling for a stock market crash for YEARS now. Maybe they got the narrative wrong. You might want to check out Raoul Pal and his everything code for another view. Also check out Brent Johnson and his theories. He has made a number of major correct calls re Dollar and equities over the past 5 years. Was there a "great reset" of some kind in 2008? Look at the DXY since 2008. If that's not a bullish trend I don't know what is. Could it really be the global liquidity runs the equity markets and not what this guest suggests?
Wow John Hussman is on! So great to see him as a guest Adam. Appreciate you both for making this happen.
Adam - I believe you're a fan as I am of Mike Maloney and something Mike said occurs to me as I look at Dr. Hussman's chart at 1:28:00. Mike said in the short-term the stock market is a voting machine, but in the long-term the stock market is a weighing machine. In other words, the purpose of markets is providing a value finding function. That means a correctly functioning stock market is doing its job finding the appropriate value for stocks given sufficient time. That makes Dr. Hussman's chart look like a beautiful representation of the stock market finding value over time, a long time. Notice how the solid dark blue line seems to try to come back to the solid green line, and the further away it strays the further it must correct to the other side as it tries to account for the "imbalance". That is very noticeable where the chart starts in 1929, for example. Afterward, the dark blue line appears to (slightly) peak above or dip below the dark green line in almost perfectly predictable fashion until 2007. In 2007 the pattern would suggest we should have dipped below the green line again (significantly) for around 10 years or so. That didn't happen. Continuing the scale analogy it looks distinctly like someone put their thumb on the scale... We know there is a bad consequence to doing that, because it throws things off, giving false readings. That reminds me of the point in the talk were you and Dr. Hussman talk about the physics of a universe unexpectedly changing.
@1:18:40 -- Regarding John's observation that we've seen lots of stimulus, but little growth in productivity ...
... public debt targeted at consumption practically never increases productivity; the only thing it 'stimulates' in the long run is inflation.
These guys should go in more detail when they say stocks will crash 50-70% because small and mid caps are still down 50-90%. So are just the big caps crashing? Small cap coming up? Equaling out? Or are small and mid caps going to 1$? I’m pretty sure mag 7 and big caps may come down but I don’t see small caps coming down nor do I see large caps coming down 50-70% but if they do that sounds like a buy the dip 🤔
It's just not that simple. Looking at the example of the Dot Com crash, respectable companies like Cisco and Lucent became dead money, high flyers like JDS Uniphase and Global Crossing collapsed, and stoic companies like Apple and Amazon regrouped, pivoted, and came out swinging towards the end of the 2000s. Macro analysis can predict none of this, because the success or failure of any one company is too granular to be decided by macro trends.
Individual fundamental analysis will be needed to pick winners or losers. For those who don't recall the product called Value Line Investment Survey, they probably haven't developed the skill to do deep dives into companies prospects. But even Value Line came up with a score for the strength of a company that was a reasonably good indicator of whether a company could survive through multiple business cycles.
Big caps like Meta went down 75%. Why shouldnt that happen again? We are in the same situation as end of 2021 in terms of valuation, even worse in some respects.
@@wheatandtares9764 nah we in the bull market big caps will pull back because they are way over valued then money will go in small and mid caps so the market evens out then it all will continue probably for 3-5 years before something big happens
Awesome guest, great technical analysis. Bring him back ASAP.
People who have followed John for longtime have lost lot of money or opportunities 😂
No one knows if bear market will happen, but valuations are extereme, leading economic indicators are flashing red, and Buffet is piling cash.
A bear market will happen, 100% No ifs. The question is, how soon?
@@bbdj2779 remember probability not certainty.
@@bbdj2779 right. this is like going to your doctor and she says "You are going to die". The real question is when
Buffet could have made lots more money employing more cash in this melt up.
@@mwilliamson4198 Correct. There is no “if” in that. Amusing how many here have convinced themselves that there is no chance of a market reversal. One of the signs of a top.
Sadly all the 401k people and pensions funds are stuck and unable to navigate this. I'm in cash and collecting interest and, yes, saving and stacking cash like a fiend. Been living this way for several years.
There is a reason patience is a virtue and greed is a sin. Being a debt slave / serf is no way to go through life, either but people want new, shiny over what they can really afford if they were honest.
And those 401k / IRA folks are part of the problem. They are in for a rude awakening.
IRAs are flexible, I changed mine to bond ETF.
I changed my 401K to Bonds. It’s still not risk free but I feel a hell of lot safer with 100% bonds right now than I do with 100% equities which is what I was doing. Moved over the minute S&P hit 5400 and started seeing all of the negative sentiment lately. Seems like a good call.
Sure but having too much in cash means you miss the melt up. That said I have made some bad mistakes with tech - especially with the tech wreck - but I have also made some decent returns participating in the momentum market.
Stocks haven't reflected their actual value since Reagan took office some forty five years ago.
It's a pure speculative Bingo parlor where perception rules, not ROI or dividends or anything that would resemble what stocks as a valid financial instrument were back in the day.
So, of course, they could plummet 70% or more because there is no resemblance between price and their actual intrinsic value. For instance, a stock would never sell below what it's ROI and dividends produce discounted by the current interest rates unless rates were expected to rise thus devaluing the expected returns.
Hey Adam, Is it possible to put up time stamps please. Brilliant interviews
Let's keep the ball rolling 💪.
Let's do $999 trillion QE before December 31, 2024. QE TO INFINITI 🎉 LOAF OF BREAD 🍞 $100 🥳
With Hussman, its like light the fuse, step back, and let him go...
Best take away from this is " choose your level of regret!"
Applies to everything.
Pascal's Wager for starters.
I admire John. Hv been reading his notes for years. His work is incredible well researched, honest and humble, great writing style and he's dogged despite the inevitable trolls. Pls get him on a gain soon. He's a prime catch.
If you bought at the highest price in 2000 2007 2022 and 2024 you are doing great today. My advice is try to buy at the worst price and you are golden.
Just dollar cost average into a 70/30 portfolio, when a correction comes, rebalance.
I say this and time will tell , the market won't fall anytime soon , stay long till the snp at least reaches 6700 , nothing is stopping this rally, nothing , no one is interested in shorting it , and this market is disconnected from anything happening underneath, I believe all these people calling for a bear market are just bitter bears , nothing looks bearish on this market. It won't fall. Till 2025 at least
That’s only six months-on what date do you think we will see a correction-have you held on with 50% losses in the past-are you ok with riding out 5-7 years to get back to where your account value was-I have it’s not fun-put on your stops where you are comfortable
@@ScottRuark-q8x70/30 portfolio , market crashes, bonds go up in value and you rebalance. Stop stressing yourself out.
@@ScottRuark-q8x I know , we are bound to see an even higher rally than this , I stopped fighting the trend, and stopped believing these bears out here
@@ScottRuark-q8x I don't see any correction soon tbh
Was the “The Fed Put” a wholly psychological phenomenon or the observed effects of repeated Fed actions?
Mostly an observed effect, with a little bit of insinuation by Fed officials. The Fed violated their own charter and the law by buying private assets such as corporate bonds. The insinuation is that there is no open market that the Fed might not try to intervene in so that they maintain their dual mandate. and oversight over banks.
Bro is trying to describe MANIA, but has a Ph.D in speaking “corporate”.
Anythings possible
Just a suggestion sir....a backdrop on your videos that better portrays your intelligence and stature....might be worth considering. :) Clothes don't make the man, but they can't hurt. And I don't mean your clothes, but the studio wall behind you. A fake bluescreen image would be great. A beach in Hawaii maybe... follow my guests as they prepare you for the retirement of your dreams might be an angle. ;)
A background of a circus tent would seem appropriate for this channel…
We will over do it to the downside. 95% crash.
Perhaps not that much, but when an asset class starts reverting towards the mean, it often overshoots the mean. It's the same principle but opposite direction of this current bubble.
A 15 year speculative market? Haha what a clown. I will take 15 years of gains and the 6 months of losses that might follow it. And wait for next 15 year run to start in month 7
Jerome powell print more.
I believe getting hold of John Husman was a major achievement for your program and a really great service to your subscriber and followers.
Thank you Adam for your hard and excellent work !!
Thank you!
Folks have been sharing Hussman comments with me for decades. But when I look at his fund performance I see abysmal results. Am I missing something? I agree with John's thesis, but I just wonder why his analysis can't result in market outperformance over multiple market cycles.
Ned Davis (NDR) Being right or making money.
John Hussman remains a voice of sanity in my opinion. Thank you Adam for bringing him in!
Voice of sanity yet is calling for the market to go down 50-70%?
@@TimothyHolt-p3j Yes, you've grasped the obvious adroitly.
Lol his fund has been a tragedy! What gives?
Beneath the analysis are a few gems I hadn't heard before. Manage your capacity for regret. Prepare for being wrong and for being correct: you will experience both. Plan informed decisions ahead of time amap. Most of all, avoid reacting to the short term potent emotions of greed and fear which can override all of the above.
Apparently a really great guy, but lousy market predictor. This guy has predicted 12 of the last 2 bear markets lol. Check his funds, one of his main growth funds actually lost money over like a 10 year period that was one of the largest bull markets in history. If you completely miss one of the greatest bull markets in history, you are one of the very worst lol. Here was article in the middle of it..."learning-from-a-lagging-mutual-fund-1426259640" from WSJ.
I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Natalie Rose Strayer.
I'm surprised that you just mentioned Natalie Strayer here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
The very first time we tried, we invested $2000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
Natalie Strayer has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
After I raised up to 125k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states also paid for my son's surgery
Glory to God shalom.
Permanently elevated and continuously elevated PE/CAPE ratios brought on by ever-increasing debasement. As a young person wanting a generational buying opportunity, I wish he were right but I don’t think central banks will ever permit such a crash/devaluation to occur. The US government alone needs those tax receipts to mitigate the already insane debt levels thus its a matter of national security to keep assets permanently elevated. That and the wealth effect is the only keeping it consumption if only being done by the overwhelming minority.
TL;DR - feels like animal spirits are tied to QE and the anticipation if only by viewing where rates are versus Fed Funds which would imply QE will come and even if we have a recession, ever-larger QE will occur to support assets and the systems that are dependent upon elevated asset values namely government “funding” and consumption.
20 trillion of QE in 2025 will assure no stock drops
In that case the value of the dollar will drop 70%.
I’m afraid the pig is in the fire.
🥩🥩🥩@@donjohnson6036
She's about to blow
💯 but the market always goes up. We may have a 1 or 2 or even 3 year downturn, but going long always wins. Maybe its different this time? Doubt it
In that case our purchasing power is cut by 50-70 percent and the gap between rich and poor would go to unbelievable margins and it might cause a revolt civil war and anarchy
Nobody knows, but it's interesting to hear different perspectives on the market.
Real, maybe, nominal, no chance. Dude has no clue about inflation. Dude needs to stop drinking his own Kool-Aid from 2000. He made a lucky call 25 years ago. Difference today is profit. He's been bearish for 10 years, absolutely crushing his investors, redemptions must be ugly for him to do a podcast.
There’s a lot of guys out there that made a right call once in their career and have been floundering since, trying to relive their glory days of correctly calling a correction. Hugh Hendry comes to mind.
Exactly. I keep bugging him in X of always ignoring inflation. His charts are never expressed in constant dollars or real returns. He never points out stocks have risen in no small part due to future inflation expectations.
John is a great guy but he has been wrong for a VERY long time...
So he’s the average Adam Taggert interviewee?
@@JRRob3wn Exactly. Hasn't quite dawned on him yet that he could be fundamentally wrong about the markets. You might want to check out Raoul Pal and his everything code for another view. Also check out Brent Johnson and his theories. He has made a number of major correct calls re Dollar and equities over the past 5 years. Was there a "great reset" of some kind in 2008? Look at the DXY since 2008. If that's not a bullish trend I don't know what is. Could it really be the global liquidity runs the equity markets and not what this guest suggests?
My forecast. Dow $380 in 1929, 18 ounces of gold. Dow 2024, $38,000, 18 ounces of gold. Dow in the future, $380,000, 18 ounces of gold.
Dow $800 in 1980, 1 ounce of gold.
What was the Dow in ounces of gold in 1933?
@@IDNeon357 Three low points June 1932, 2.06 Feb 1933, 1.94 July 1934, 2.52.
Good as metric as any.
@@IDNeon357 Two ounces.
I've only seen this guy's charts shown by people who get everything wrong. A broken clock waiting endless days to be right again.
Hussman is the greatest. How nice to have him on. I love his newsletter and analysis and he is completely correct that the absurd valuations must normalize. It’s going to be a rough road ahead.
Rhetorical question: What is the future/new "normal"?
@@variousstuff6469 The reason Mr. Hussman takes time to speak about past performance is that his long term record in Strategic Return is abysmal. Look at the 10 or 15 yr return stream..
Or maybe there is a new way of determining the P in PE ratios like Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel have suggested.
His fund is down over 50% in 15 years. The Vanguard 500 Index fund is up over 10x . Price is the final arbiter of truth in the markets.
Thanks John and Adam. Good to see and hear John 'in person', instead of just in printed commentary.
Adam and this bear den ought to LOVE this guest😀 Unfortunately John has consistently underestimated the impact of money supply growth in fueling the massive bubble over the last decade. He WILL be proven correct.... just not yet...
There is NO logical reason the stock market rising like it is now. I am OUT!
One of favorite Wall Street phrases is “paper losses”
The other is “paper profits”
Unrealized Gains is perhaps the worst, as it feeds the former giving one a false sense of wealth.
Bill Gates retired off his paper profits. Heirs also receive a fictional stepped up basis from inherited property. My point is, the truly wealthy have assets that may never actualize a gain, yet their assets work for them in ways that increase their wealth without much effort. It's the ephemeral paper gains of volatile assets [*cough* GME *cough*] that yield a false perception not of wealth, but of purchasing power.
Thank you, Adam. I've followed Dr Hussman's commentary for some time, clearly grounded in agonizing detail, often beyond the reach of my left hemisphere. Started watching late, but hoping to hear how volcanic geopolitical events affect his outlook. A 50-70% asset price collapse seems almost rosy; 89% is not unthinkable.
His funds would probably be better if he just used SPY when his signals are bullish and Cash when they go negative. Rather than individual stocks and hedging
A lot of tech dropped 100-200% in 2022. 50-70 is conservative for overvalued companies
Of course, stocks COULD drop 50-70%. The relevant question is WILL they. The answer? Nobody knows. Nobody.
Most likely won't.
There are times past performance can be indicative of future results.
If you look at past markets those drops are often the case.
When you add in all the bubbles together and the economic dislocations and the potential black swans overhead if we get out with only a 50% loss we will be lucky.
We are at a multi generational place in history and I could be very bad.
@@danielturner9832 And likely they will continue to print $ longer
@@danielturner9832 Once again COULD. Market timing is a risky proposition. When do you get out? Where is the bottom? When to get back in? What if you get out, then you are wrong and the market never crashes?
@@JRRob3wn It always mystifies why investors should be looking for get in/get out points. All that does is multiply the risk of doing something dumb. Buy what you want and ride out the bumps you know will come. Stocks go up, then go down, then go up higher, then down and then even higher. That's why long term investors do what they do. There's nothing hard to understand about that. No genius is required.
NEw ALL TIME HIGH. Just like Hussman did not call, as usual. And you know what new all time highs bring. MORE all time highs.
FOMOL is a new term. Fear of missing out on losses. Describes most bears at this point
HSGFX (his fund) - OUCH!!!
Awful!
It looks like one half of the Grand Canyon. What a joke!
This fund is a dead dog in the pond!
Morningstar rating: 1 star
Expense ratio: 1.2%!!!
Performance: -40% in the last ten years!
Underperformed the index by 4x!!
Holds 40% short term treasuries!!!
I wish somebody would pay me a 1.2% fee to hold short term treasuries for them!
he should just buy SPY when his model is pro market and just go to cash when model is negative market It looked like he would be killing the S&P index shown in one of the first charts
Take a stats class. Understand a Markov switching model, this presentation is terrible stats at work. When a model has only worked for a few weeks over the last 30+ years, your model is garbage. Even if one doesn't know anything about Finance, just basic stats would force anyone to dump this analysis, this is total garbage. Dude should have become a GP, he doesn't understand basic finance and stats.
The market is far closer to the top than bottom! Buy gold and wait for sanity to return! 😮
I don't think the dollar is ever going to gain purchasing power in terms of assets for long. Which is what a market crash implies.
love hussmans work; and this channel really does attract alot of talent. great work adam !
Ever checked into how Hussman’s fund has performed?
My God. 50 to 70% decline? The 2030s will be an interesting decade for sure. Thank you John Hussman.
Another market crash video. I’m still waiting for the last 300 interviews to happen.
It’s amazing people still watch this trash.
You’ve been warned. And warned. And warned. 😂
Lol
I see this channel is still preaching doomsday while my portfolio continues to get fatter and fatter LOL. Fear sells and Adam is bankin from the sheep.
Adam, have you had a guest on that has analyzed the supply of publicly traded stocks and the demand ( money available ) to pay for $1 of earnings. The universe of publicly available companies has been declining over time, many particularly big public companies are have been repurchasing their stock - these two factors result in less supply. Meanwhile, particularly since 2020 the amount of money pumped into the economy has created more demand / $ chasing a smaller pool of equity - so
stock prices & multiples have been going up. Is it possible that historic valuations aren’t the lens to view the current dynamics (all the $ pumped in since 2020) . With the historic money pump, Have we had a historic change in valuations?
Not so sure about this one. Gods, immortal or otherwise seldom Give up power freely as Prometheus can attest to. We know things changed post-GFC to liquidity from value stocks. Are they at the point where they can afford a market correction risking deflation?? Because then all past effort since 2020 is for nothing.
Follow the $ inflow of funds to short term T-Bills and where Buffett is keeping his dollars is a clear sign...
John has destroyed a lot of capital, but I like him.
Adam, good work thank you for this!
How can anyone take this guy seriously. Look at his funds' performance over a decade! Dismal! All this high-falootin talk and he loses money.
Phenomenal interview and interviewer, so helpful,thank you !
“I’m not calling a top, I’m not, but we think this market looks a lot like 2000 and 2007.” Hmm, sounds like he’s calling a top.
Not exactly. All he's saying is that previous tops had similar conditions. There's a difference.
The market may continue to go up, if government keeps adding so much liquidity to the system. But we are in a bubble that will, at some point, have large losses. Go back and look at the GFC S&P topped at 1565 then fell to 676. Not a pleasant outcome, but we could see that again. What he is saying is: Look at the risk in your investments. How much might you lose? How much are you willing to lose. How do you minimize the loss?
Charts are showing Nvidia about to go higher again, the question being whether it breaks the previous high. We have gold and silver charts looking mouth-watering for a rise within the coming 1-2 months, THEN we may have a larger pull-back pre-election and the September bears coming in, with a gold and silver pullback again. After that point, we see what happens in the macro medium term, but the short term will see plenty of volatility to make money (and sell positions too of course). I don't see an everything crash this calendar year, but certainly some harsh corrections. This is not a market for the average bear (no pun intended). You need rationality, a strong stomach, and above all to work with what the charts are telling you, not what is going to happen at some point soon (but soon is a relative concept). Are we in for uncertain global events coming up? YES. We have the blackout, we have a lot of money deployed to tech underway, a bounce in gold and silver to come this summer, and a summer high to come. After that is anyone's guess.
SIMPLE ...
50-year mortgages; Stocks splitting; more meds for all.
Fixes everything.
Not sure an additional 20 years is enough. Make it a 75 year mortgage.
That’s the plan Stan!!!!🎉
How about mortgage forgiveness. Its seems to work for student loans.
@@dr.johnnyfever9194 😆
This is the final boss of kicking the can down the road😂😂
Does the Vietnamese Buddhist monk know if we’re at the top?
If you want to save an hour plus of your life, check out Hussman's track record. It'll be hard to find something that bad for that long.
As long as the 401K target date fund flows are positive, price will go up. The moment those flows reverse, the whole thing collapses. Mike Green explains the Ponzi quite well. The "money" is trapped, so there is no way for those 401K owners to withdraw. They have "wealth" on paper only.
I’ve been reading The Mandibles.. great book. It would be cool to see you interview the author.
While I'm sure Dr. Hussman is a smart guy, but his fund's performance is so far below the S&P index, I'm not sure why someone would invest with him.
Your comment is accurate only when you define the specific time period of interest.
History is factual whilst forecasting is speculative. As said before, those who ignore the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.
What I find so interesting as John Hussman demonstrates the rate of return on T-Bills has historically exceeded rate of return from S&P 500 for approx 60% of the time over the last 100-years! So if one were to be invested in stocks when the market signals were positive and be in T-Bills during other times, then one would do significantly better than a "buy and hold" investor - see his graphic.
@@gerrymoore2481His fund is down 40% over the last ten years, has underperformed the index by a multiple of 4, he’s holds nearly 40% of his portfolio in short term treasuries and charges 1.2% for the pleasure of participating in all this awesomeness. By all means, put your life savings into his fund.
Ok. please invest in Dr. Hussmans funds.
With most money being digital, it doesn’t even have to be printed..!
lol this guy must be on the crack
Thank-you for the great interview. Not too often that I appreciate a one hour interview that lasts over an hour and a half!
Awesome Adam, ive never seen hussman in an interview, been reading his website since 2016. Hoping i can find some actionables from this smart but Permabear.
Another brilliant guest that Adam brought to his channel..! Liked this informative conversation 👍
Wow! What a session. Feels like I am attending the Econometrics Modeling class 29 yrs back. Only time will say which way the market will go, but I really enjoyed the session.
If you really want to enjoy a laugh, look at the charts of Hussman’s fund performance over the last 20 years!🤡
Im going to rely on adams notes on this one.
Great guest! Positivity was through the roof. I felt uplifted towards the end of this intetview. This man is humble & I think he is in touch with mortality. What really does matter? 10% 20% 1000% returns doesnt come close to the present. What is your time worrh?
The gamble is to stay in the game as long as possible and then get out at the last minute before everyone else and then get back in at the bottom...
Always an excellent podcast. Intelligent and informative discussions. Subscribe if you haven't already!
I think Groucho Marx would do a better job of running a fund than Hussman.
Hussman is a great person, also very intelligent in so many areas. But many of his commentaries like "Why a 60-65% Market Loss Would Be Run-Of-The-Mill" from May 2019 are off the mark. Also, HSGFX which he manages has been a poor performer for almost a decade now (that is a long time!). The future is hard to predict even with all the brilliant analysis. A simple balanced fund would be great to own all these years with lower volatility and decent returns. I wish him luck this time around and for the future.
There is a very good chance that the S&P500 and Nasdaq have finally topped out today - I'm expecting some nasty big red candles over the next two weeks
Interesting interview. Hussman's long-term valuation fundamental analysis models are intuitive, understandable, make sense, and appear to be sound and analytically rigorous, based on solid math, probability and statistics.
But with the increasing underperformance of these models not having as much relevance over the last 15 years, Hussman appears to be belatedly half-capitulating, half throwing in the towel, tacitly acknowledging that fundamental analysis doesn't work so well anymore.
So he appears to be trying to compensate for that, to adapt and adjust, by supplementing and incorporating an increasing amount of short and medium term technical analysis into his work.
But in so doing, Hussman, the erstwhile Mr. Math, abdicates and abandons any pretense of sound math and descends down into the realm of loosey-goosey heuristics and fuzzy math that typifies so much of technical analysis and its practitioners, the farcical dark-arts dog-and-pony schtick, witchcraft mumbo-jumbo voodoo alchemy of investment analysis, the waving-of-hands Wizard of Oz telling folks not to look behind the curtain.
Hussman fails to define, with any specificity and analytical rigor, key terms he repeatedly uses that are central to his short and medium term technical analysis, such as "market internals" and "syndromes."
What are the various sets of factors and conditions that make up the universe of "market internals" and the universe of "syndromes," respectively? He doesn't say, doesn't explain, and doesn't define.
And for each factor or condition in each of those two broad categories ("market internals" and "syndromes"), what are their respective probabilistic relationships to various outcomes 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years later, and expected values thereof, with what statistical significance? Again, he doesn't say, doesn't explain, and doesn't define.
[This is reminiscent of a charlatan like Michael Howell who will come on and bloviate ad-nauseum a big load of vague, ambiguous hot air about "liquidity," but is unable to define exactly what "liquidity" is and means, whereas a solid analytical guy like Steve Hanke will come on and fully explain and define "liquidity" with complete mathematical specificity.]
With his analytical ambiguity and opaqueness, lack of mathematical specificity, his obfuscating, prevaricating, dissembling inability to precisely define the key technical analysis terms he uses, Hussman comes off as lacking in credibility and rigor, and looking like a charlatan, as do so many technical analysts.
As such, all we are left to go on is Hussman's actual measurable performance in his management of his HSGFX investment fund.
Nevertheless, I still find useful Hussman's long-term valuation fundamental analysis mathematical models, and I enjoyed the interview and found it worthwhile.
🗣️”Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria”. Sir John Templeton . This looks, feels and smells of Euphoria to me. This is where bull markets go to die. It is not where they are born.
People in the comments seem to miss what John is saying. John's point is that--based on current valuations--the expected return for the US market generally is about half of what it has been historically. Things could be different this time: market participants might be OK with a 5% return instead of a 10% return going forward, in which case stocks could remain at these high levels for quite some time. But if investor psychology changes at any point and market participants start demanding the forward returns they demanded in the past, there is a long way for stocks to drop. Thus his point is not that stocks will fall: it's that there's far more risk at these levels than there is potential reward.
We’re not going to see crashes like past in major indexes because Blackrock is getting better at reshuffling them to mask FTW5000 crashes. You’re going to have to pay more attention to equal-weight indexes
great guests for bear porn..every video on this channel is market will collapse and market keeps ripping.
Correction always follows huge run ups-but maybe things have changed-use stop loss orders on your winners if you still feel comfortable with this market
@@ScottRuark-q8xOr just dollar cost average into a 70/30 portfolio and stop trying to time the market.
The Man, The Myth, The Legend!!!! John Hussman!!!!!! Thank you for this treat Adam. Always keep it real sensei Hussman. We choose to be fools now. 😉
Hello folks, just so you know there is no right or wrong in the way you trade or forsee the future direction of the financial market place, we can only trade and invest based on strict rules and you must have a system in place in order to succeed and beat the market.
May the markets be with you.
So happy to see John Hussman on Thoughtful Money! Great show.
Great for comedy purposes!🤡
Hussman Stategic Growth Fund down 44% since inception in 2000. Permabears sound smart and lose money.
Here's a GUARANTEED way to underperform the market -- own Hussman's funds
The trigger that will set off the large implosion Will be the fed governors decompressing the treasury yield spread or fed Governor s slowing the quantitative tightening. Sounds paradoxical but that will be the critical moment. 😮
What is the best way to avoid mediocrity in investing?
Do your own analysis, invest in what you know, and be patient for long term results. Amazon was dead money for its first decade as a public company. And even then really only got profitable when it leased its cloud servers through AWS that were originally developed for internal consumption.
My grandfather was a zoologist and anatomy professor, yet he left an estate that will take two generations to drain. As a grade schooler he showed me a prospectus for a utility company and said he invested in their preferred stock. It took me a few years to fully understand what he was saying, and a lifetime to emulate his example.
Adam, have you had a guest on that has analyzed the supply of publicly traded stocks and the demand ( money available ) to pay for $1 of earnings. The universe of publicly available companies has been declining over time, many particularly big public companies are have been repurchasing their stock - these two factors result in less supply. Meanwhile, particularly since 2020 the amount of money pumped into the economy has created more demand / $ chasing a smaller pool of equity - so
stock prices & multiples have been going up. Is it possible that historic valuations aren’t the lens to view the current dynamics (all the $ pumped in since 2020) . With the historic money pump, Have we had a historic change in valuations?
Not necessarily a historic change in valuations but there has been a historic change in money flows. Back in the day when companies offered defined benefit pensions, the plan administrators had the luxury of investing in just about anything an insurance company could invest in, namely private assets. The only concern was that the pension fund could deliver on its actuarial expectations. As the market for retirement benefits shifted to defined contribution plans, retirement savings got trapped in these trusts that had much more limited access to the capital markets, namely listed securities. The pressure to put these savings to work has been creating an artificial demand on securities.
I can't see this trend reversing until trust owners take control over their IRAs and 401Ks and reallocate to private businesses, vaulted precious metals, etc. This would drain some liquidity out of the public markets and let them seek a fair risk adjusted price.
Hussman + New Harbor= great listening
In terms of Hussman’s continual reference to psychology and sentiment, I would say reflect specifically on the volatility of these times. Wars, open borders, high cost of living, controversial elections; these times contain the elements where sentiment & psychology could turn on a dime. The potential for quickly changing sentiment negatively impacting markets is high.
New Harbor predicted the S&P would fall to 1500 in 2023. 🤡
Thanks!
Thank you very much!!
An amazing man and an amazing interview ! Thanks!
Well said. What’s happening feels so wrong and artificial. I’m still of the belief a reckoning is imminent. The timing is anyone’s guess..
Speaking of correlation, I have rarely intuitively believed an interviewee so much, but understood so little. So to resolve this, it's Au and Ag to put my tired head at rest.