@@Brianlovesrice the FED is doing things that are brand new, it's truly a really interesting time! That's why I switched to investing long term things, the short term stuff is blowing my mind every single day.
the AI narrative is already played out. everyone has seen chatgpt by now. everyone has seen the dumb AI generated videos by now. it's played out and it's going to come back down. nvidia is teetering. it's at $130 today. this comment will age well.
Right now? Valuations up. The level of currency debasement is pretty much under control and trending down especially compared to a couple years ago. But don't worry it'll be back. Every time we come down from drug induced highs we always re-up the dose whenever withdrawals become too painful. More all time highs, dollar will be more and more worth-less
@@tann_man How does one distinguish the difference between currency debasement and market melt-ups? The people who get fed money printing first are throwing it into a market, any market that beats perceived inflation, so how does one separate real valuation change from price changes due to inflation?
If we are lucky, there might be one more, though very very brief AI winter. If we are not so lucky, than AGI is coming in the next 2-3 years and we are done for.
when is that gonna happen?! lol. it depends on which stocks though. good companies providing value - yes, buy when down. but random three letters? be careful!
if the AI craze isn't the definition of "irrational exuberance", I don't know what is. All you need to know about AI is to take a look at Google's Gemini commercials.... this is the literal best use case they can come up with. Drawing pictures of dogs doing something funny. Also, IMO, it's going to 100% replace traditional voicemail menus and customer service for companies. That's it. That's the killer app. Everything else is going to be a very complicated argument and justification. AI is and will be very powerful to enable companies to provide interesting product features and help with inxffencies in services, but it isn't going to be the revolutionary life changing explosive force that they want it to be.
I disagree, if you look at Chatgpt and Image and video generator. Not only has it increased productivity in terms of work generation for white collar workers, it is having a huge impact in manufacturing and medical industries. That's like saying the beginnings of the Internet was just a fad.
Sorry man, no personal offense here, but I work around AI a lot. And it's going to revolutionize everything. The stuff you see Gemini doing is just loss-leader, consumer type play. It's fun, but it's not where the money is right now. Robotics and AI will be the future. It's certainly not a gimmick. Yes, many stocks are overbought. The market is overheated. But the underlying tech is revolutionary and will affect most parts of your life within a decade. It's certainly exuberance, but it's not irrational.
For now. Yes. Wait till they are making movies. Video games. At that point I don’t know who will win that war. Hosting servers? But also people need to remember. It’s a few companies who are just holding the chips and will write them off as depreciation with. They actually have the money to burn. Elon might only be the one smart guy actually using the chips to build something intelligent ( robo taxi. Robots )
My friend started trading options and know nothing. Randos have been asking me about bitcoins Yeah the lemmings are being led to the cliff to be slaughtered 😂
I love all of the videos, great analysis again. I usually don't trade short term, and of course, already have tech stocks, but now I also opened a short term (1-2 months) positon for Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, ASML, Crowdstrike, Meta and Microsoft. Anyway, I am also expecting some kind of crash, in the last weeks, 25-30% of my sp500/nasdaq/AI/tech positions are transferred to gold, xlp and cash.
NASDAQ 100: - Now: PE ~30, matches **Oct 1998** levels - Post-Oct 1998: **+234%** to peak - Now: Tech PE premium vs market similar to **1990s** but lower - Now: **25% annual growth** forecast (deemed **unrealistic**) - Pattern: **Stagnant since June 2023**, technical indicators suggest **breakout** - Parallel: **1999** had similar stagnation before **upward move** Market stance: Bullish on tech, driven by **technicals + AI narrative**
Markets usually go up. Trends continue more often than they reverse. I feel like most good investing advice is really just a different way of articulating these two principles.
Great overview Peter and Team! Do you think this is the start of Portfolio Managers rebalancing of their investments that you have been expecting for the last few weeks, or is this the end of the "Santa Clause" rally as that most people have been expecting as investors seek out value?
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Remember, when the crash happens everything is on discount.
I dont even need any tools to realize we are in a head and shoulders from the demons.
Internet = job boom
Ai = job destruction
I’m feeling 1987 vibes
It's an everything bubble.
One main difference is quantitative easing.
I was thinking this. Fed is actively intervening right now
We're still in a QT cycle and QE may not happen until everything falls apart.
@@Brianlovesrice the FED is doing things that are brand new, it's truly a really interesting time! That's why I switched to investing long term things, the short term stuff is blowing my mind every single day.
@@suites.74they’re not doing new things, they’re just doing everything at a more extreme level.
Buy the dip and cost average
it all comes down to the semiconductor sector
Why
Semis are not growing, look at SOXX, all growth is in software stocks.
People moved from AI hardware (semiconductors) to AI software.
the AI narrative is already played out. everyone has seen chatgpt by now. everyone has seen the dumb AI generated videos by now. it's played out and it's going to come back down. nvidia is teetering. it's at $130 today. this comment will age well.
Without liquidity (inflation inducing) the market will only continue this as long as retail has margin left to chase it.
Is it NASDAQ gains, or dollar weakening?
Right now? Valuations up. The level of currency debasement is pretty much under control and trending down especially compared to a couple years ago.
But don't worry it'll be back. Every time we come down from drug induced highs we always re-up the dose whenever withdrawals become too painful. More all time highs, dollar will be more and more worth-less
Yes
@@tann_man the fed put... e.g. QE
@@tann_man
How does one distinguish the difference between currency debasement and market melt-ups? The people who get fed money printing first are throwing it into a market, any market that beats perceived inflation, so how does one separate real valuation change from price changes due to inflation?
AI is overrated, a big bubble w8ing to burst.
If we are lucky, there might be one more, though very very brief AI winter.
If we are not so lucky, than AGI is coming in the next 2-3 years and we are done for.
Have fun waiting for that bubble to "burst" while the rest of us print money.
Question is: When?
Can't stop Won't Stop!
Until the tapes are released, lol.
Just a blackout... just 1 day... remember :)
Planets gonna break this time possibly.
Climbing the wall of worry, who can get out first?
Best time to buy is when stocks are down
Wrong.
Assuming you have spare cash in a recession.
when is that gonna happen?! lol. it depends on which stocks though. good companies providing value - yes, buy when down. but random three letters? be careful!
yes but printing money created a vacuum known as inflation which turns into debt exponentially thus affecting earnings and stocks
printing money also creates debt payments... that sucks money out of the system (and then it dissapears), which is deflationary.
Turns into debt exponentially, can you explain this please?
@@stachowi I think you're doing "bidenomics" instead of "economics" there buddy
Cap
Mirror image that base case and fuel in there the trade tarrifs... Better be on the right side of it for a little while.
if the AI craze isn't the definition of "irrational exuberance", I don't know what is. All you need to know about AI is to take a look at Google's Gemini commercials.... this is the literal best use case they can come up with. Drawing pictures of dogs doing something funny. Also, IMO, it's going to 100% replace traditional voicemail menus and customer service for companies. That's it. That's the killer app. Everything else is going to be a very complicated argument and justification. AI is and will be very powerful to enable companies to provide interesting product features and help with inxffencies in services, but it isn't going to be the revolutionary life changing explosive force that they want it to be.
you have no arguments against its growth, you're wrong
I disagree, if you look at Chatgpt and Image and video generator. Not only has it increased productivity in terms of work generation for white collar workers, it is having a huge impact in manufacturing and medical industries. That's like saying the beginnings of the Internet was just a fad.
These applications will not be the killer applications of AI, but they can showcase how the capabilities are improving, in a relatable way.
Sorry man, no personal offense here, but I work around AI a lot. And it's going to revolutionize everything. The stuff you see Gemini doing is just loss-leader, consumer type play. It's fun, but it's not where the money is right now. Robotics and AI will be the future. It's certainly not a gimmick. Yes, many stocks are overbought. The market is overheated. But the underlying tech is revolutionary and will affect most parts of your life within a decade. It's certainly exuberance, but it's not irrational.
For now. Yes. Wait till they are making movies. Video games. At that point I don’t know who will win that war. Hosting servers?
But also people need to remember. It’s a few companies who are just holding the chips and will write them off as depreciation with. They actually have the money to burn.
Elon might only be the one smart guy actually using the chips to build something intelligent ( robo taxi. Robots )
Man, I love the information you put out. I subscribe to a lot of stock market videos. Your presentation and information is tops
My friend started trading options and know nothing. Randos have been asking me about bitcoins
Yeah the lemmings are being led to the cliff to be slaughtered 😂
Been hearing this for years.
Hahhaha one video.......boom......another video....crash.
Ultimate video....told.you hahhahaha
Tism with the graphs. Take a step back. Remember 911? Are you predicting a global disaster.?
I stay out of the casino. Always have. I’ll just continue to convert my fiat currency into real hard assets.
Gold? Houses?
@@I_am_Razielbeany babies
I also Love real Estate. Cant beat cash flow
@@I_am_Raziel gold houses?
Soros!? *Soulja Boy voice*
I love all of the videos, great analysis again. I usually don't trade short term, and of course, already have tech stocks, but now I also opened a short term (1-2 months) positon for Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, ASML, Crowdstrike, Meta and Microsoft. Anyway, I am also expecting some kind of crash, in the last weeks, 25-30% of my sp500/nasdaq/AI/tech positions are transferred to gold, xlp and cash.
Bullish.
NASDAQ 100:
- Now: PE ~30, matches **Oct 1998** levels
- Post-Oct 1998: **+234%** to peak
- Now: Tech PE premium vs market similar to **1990s** but lower
- Now: **25% annual growth** forecast (deemed **unrealistic**)
- Pattern: **Stagnant since June 2023**, technical indicators suggest **breakout**
- Parallel: **1999** had similar stagnation before **upward move**
Market stance: Bullish on tech, driven by **technicals + AI narrative**
5th?
Nope 😂😂😂 gogo up 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Markets usually go up.
Trends continue more often than they reverse.
I feel like most good investing advice is really just a different way of articulating these two principles.
Hope you’re correct. I’m planning to cash out mid to late 2026.
You bullish development made a lower low
Do you think stocks plummeting can drag crypto down as well?
Yes, crypto is a risk asset.
Yes. Crypto always follows tech stocks.
Well yes of course its a risk asset still
Crypto and stock has a very strong correlation from past experience
Would have thought the opposite
3rd
Great overview Peter and Team! Do you think this is the start of Portfolio Managers rebalancing of their investments that you have been expecting for the last few weeks, or is this the end of the "Santa Clause" rally as that most people have been expecting as investors seek out value?
first
First