Vacheron Constantin: The Unexpected Buyer's Market You Can't Ignore
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- Опубліковано 12 січ 2025
- "Is Vacheron Constantin Still a 'Holy Trinity' Brand? The Shocking Market Shift
A stunning revelation in the luxury watch world has left collectors and experts reeling. Vacheron Constantin, long considered part of watchmaking's revered 'Holy Trinity,' is facing an unprecedented challenge to its status. This video dives deep into a market shift that's shaking the foundations of haute horlogerie.
We explore:
The startling data that's calling VC's position into question
How Vacheron Constantin compares to Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet right now
The mysterious forces behind this market upheaval
What this means for the concept of the 'Holy Trinity' in modern watchmaking
The golden opportunity this presents for astute collectors and enthusiasts
Is this the end of the 'Holy Trinity' as we know it? Or is it a temporary anomaly in an ever-changing market?
Whether you're a die-hard collector or a curious enthusiast, this analysis offers crucial insights into a pivotal moment in horological history. Don't miss this exploration of a market shift that could redefine luxury watchmaking.
Join us as we unravel this horological mystery and its implications for the future of high-end watches. The answer might surprise you.
#VacheronConstantin #HolyTrinity #LuxuryWatches #WatchCollecting #MarketAnalysis"
I love wearing my VCs. Having leather, steel and rubber bands makes it easy to change bands/straps without tools. Makes it feel like getting 3 watches for the price of one!
The data slide with the production numbers you showed appears to be from 2021. The Morgan Stanley report for 2023 (the most recent one). had VC at 35,000 AP at 51,000 and PP at 70,000. VC has increased production from 23k to 35k in 3 years, almost exactly 50% increase in units. Probably too many. But my main take away is that i don't understand why any watch that isn't rare or limited edition would ever sell for more than MSRP of a new one from an authorized dealer. The whole luxury market is wacky.
If we being real they need to drop prices by 30-40%, competition is really high below and above it's price points. You can get a couple Tudors or many other brands for some of the prices they sell the basic watches.
supply and demand, Rolex is a prime example. 1M production but demand is way more world wide. Either they lower their production number to make it more exclusive or increase marketing budget.
Vacheron prices are close to what these watches should sell at (e.g. if you take prices from the 60s and 70s and inflation-adjust to today). Patek and Audemars are grossly inflated, hence making today's buyers true suckers
Interesting video.
This is how the watch industry should be. Watches aren't supposed to be investments, and it's a disappointment that that's what watches have become.
I can't wait until AP and Patek meet Vacheron in selling broadly at a discount and the hype and crypto bros all move onto something else.
I have some thoughts on this and will do a market analysis follow up.
To me this just shows the reality of the social media dominated world. The only models with high demand are the ones which can be flexed on social media. Without Overseas collection, VC would be closer in the market to Breguet and Blancpain(both of which have no flex pieces) then to AP and Patek
When did membership in the holy trinity become decided by hype and marketing rather than the sheer quality of the watch? If it was just the former, we should just swap Vacheron with Richard Mille.
Yes, because VC doesn’t have a 222, a cornes de Vaches, a 1921, ultra thin perpetual calendars, not to mention discontinued models like the Mercator and Saltarello. Now tell me one iconic model from Bréguet or Blancpain that can rival these…
@@thegabal1484 The guy above was weird for mentioning Blancpain (really a one-trick pony with the FF), but Breguet is a different animal. Classique, Tradition, Type XX, Marine. They have legit lines and go toe to toe with VC.
Very true, similar to my analysis of Rolex as a fashion brand. It's all jewelry and social flexing now.
I think they are tragically undervalued in the market. But it's like he said, most people don't know them so no social flex value. The upside is prices are more reasonable for collectors. (Not that I could afford them lol)
Great analysis. One thing on the last chart that jumped out at me - the 41mm Overseas is fine but the 37s aren’t - so the ‘smaller watches’ guys are just a very vocal minority. 39-42 is still the sweet spot.
I would have liked to see a graph of their price increases over the last 5-6 yrs. Like IWC, GP, VC may have overdone the increases.
Graphs are at watchcharts
My 6 1/2 inch wrist agrees with you. As long as the lug to lug is 47 or less, I'm good.
@@mywatchjourney6579 exactly! And so many brands don’t put that, most important, metric on their websites.
@@mywatchjourney6579 mine is 6.75 and thought the 50.5mm would be too much. But the lugs have some curvature and coupled with the very solid oyster bracelet, it fits fine. Glad I stopped in the boutique and realized that. I’d recommend you stop in and try one on - never know. And it’s such an amazing piece to see up close even if it’s not going to work. Rolex gets some stick for being ‘boring’ - no one can honestly call the Skydweller boring.
Phenomenal video. I went to a VC boutique last April to see the Historique 1942. I know it’s lost value but, I don’t plan on selling it. Your video inspired me to check out pre/owned perpetual VC’s. There r some good deals to be had,
It's a great feeling to own a piece of history and never have to sell it, but you're right, there's a lot to be said for the pre-owned market right now.
IMO, VC made the best blue SS watch on the market. Everyone wanted it and prices still reflect that. Unfortunately, like other watch makers, they only offered a few and to select customers. So people settled for the black or silver but it just wasn't THAT blue one...then they tried to sell them preowned and STILL everyone wanted the blue and prices dropped...big time. All the brands as you show in your video are facing adjustments but many can't and won't part with 25K for a SS watch which puts VC in a tough position. Flippers, "investors" and grey market dealers are also partly to blame boosting prices to ridiculous prices. We'll have to see. Great video, thanks.
The Brown one is even better! :))))
I was looking at Pateks years ago. Rappers made it fashionable and prices went crazy. Same with AP. As Hip-Hop is one of the top marketing drivers. Once rappers promote Vach the market will go crazy. I think it will happen this year. So I think this is the next wave.
Travis literally rapped on big shots “vacheron over Philippe”
The staggering cost of servicing a perpetual calendar or tourbillion watch are also a deterrent. Several thousand dollars on the low end
Bingo! That was my thought as well. It's nice to think of the romance of owning a complication; but people are being realistic about the maintenance cost.
The thing is vc out did themselves with the overseas, they’re literally suffering from very localized success. The os is so versatile it basically covers all their lineup besides a few that end up pricing out people because they don’t see it as worth it when again, the os will pretty much cover it.
Another great video! Looking forward to more!
Good presentation!
Nicely done.
i ll tell you a personal story which i think reflects why noone is buying VC: during covid in Shanghai, I went to maybe 7 different Rolex ADs to get Explorer 2 white dial. Put my name on the list. added AD contacts to my social media. Received not a single call in two years. HOWEVER in the last few months, I see the same ADs post Explorer 2 white dial on sale, and now that **IS** available, I do not want it. Moral of the story from my end, people only want to buy what they cannot have, which essentially follows the hype. If VC ever gets the hype machine, they will be in the same umbrella as PP/AP. PS: It is different story why they never called me but posted these watches on sale - speaks volumes about these so called wait lists hehe. True story, I promise.
At least in China. Was on the Rolex waitlist here in SoCal, finally got the call 2 weeks ago - got an amazing Skydweller.
Yeah, first time I visited a Rolex AD, there was a line. But the VC boutique was almost empty. Only one guy sitting and trying on a watch. It was actually kinda sad because their watches are high finish.
I banned the other guy for his rude comment. Don't want that on my channel.
@@mywatchjourney6579 positive energy only 💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻
@@WestCoastAce27 true story: they also post sky dwellers for sale these days. Can walk in and buy.
Some of the Vacheron models have gone up 50% or more in the last 3 years. Maybe they thought the covid era wasn't a bubble, but it's very clear now that many of their watches are way over priced.
VC tank in the secondary market in general as they aren't independent. They are perceived as less exclusive.
But their production is less than others. It does surprise a bit.
@@mywatchjourney6579the reality is the watch game is about snobbery, marketing and market perception. That's why Rolex, Richard mille and AP sit ahead of high horology watch maisons like breguet, a lange sohne and a plethora of lesser known independents. It's cyclical and nobody stays on top forever except Rolex. Just look at franck Muller, panerai, hublot and Roger dubois. They all had their time in the sun which had now set
VC are more exclusive, but less hype. Big difference!
AP RO Offshores all sell below retail. So do all the code 11:59s. Patek dress watches are all selling below retail. Only the Nautilus and Aquanaut are selling above retail
Yeah, I take note of this in my latest Patek video.
Lucky to get a VC overseas in about two weeks as my first purchase from a Boutique. Great experience and better watch.
Congrats! I recently tried a 37MM overseas. My local watchmaker was trying to get me to buy. It did feel great for my wrist.
@@mywatchjourney6579 so why didn't you buy?
@@mywatchjourney6579so why didn't you buy?
I wish I had a VC boutique near me. I would love to see the 222 and new RG dual time green dial Overseas.
I'm fortunate to live near a watch mecca, the South Coast Plaza shop. The VC boutique is quite nice. But funny, it's always the Rolex shop that has lines in front. Hope you get to see one in the metal soon.
Excellent analysis and thank you very much for this as I requested Vacheron Constantin analysis. It’s much appreciated and I am amazed how good you are at doing them.
You're welcome, and thank you.
Very interesting analysis. I appreciate you do your own work to form your opinions unlike most other watch channels. I would only add that I actually think it's normal to see the simpler models discounted less than the ones with expensive complications. They are easier to sell because they appeal to a broader customer base; this isn't exclusively a Vacheron problem.
Yeah, I'm not here to say that my opinions are facts. And you're right. My analysis shows that complications are overall heavily discounted in the secondary market.
I think VC not being independent hurts it from being collected by super collectors the way AP and Patek and Rolex are
This is the problem. Richemont is a publicly traded company and needs to make a measurable profit. To do that, they are going to absolutely do their best to meet demand and perhaps overshoot that demand. They never will have the luxury that the big 3 have to where they are profitable and can maintain the aura of luxury and/or exclusivity. VC will never have this.
Additionally, I don’t think it’s about looking as watches as “investments”. Let’s be honest. For 99.5% of the public, $30k+ to drop on a watch is truly a luxury. I don’t think many people go into this purchasing decision and think they will make money, but they want to preserve the value of the purchase as best they can. The “middle ground” of the watch market is a dead zone and will always lose 40 to 75% of the value, and that’s exactly where VC is. They make LOVELY watches but you either have to be rich enough not to care about the value (and the rich want PP, AP, Rolex, and RM), or you nab great deals on the secondary market. Nobody that both understands and has to manage their finances is going to buy VC at retail. It’s an absolutely dumb thing to do. And that’s just a fact.
But why, they are still hand made. Their production is much less.
@@mywatchjourney6579 agree i think they're lovely.
Aside from the overseas, VC don’t have a current catalogue of cool watches. They’re watches for old men and women.
I would prefer VC any day over shit brand like Rolex
Patek is producing 75,000 watches this year. Confirmed to me by a sales associate last month.
Thanks!
i would like to see the follow-up to this video and how VC compares to AP and Patek and where you see value in each of the other brands. This might need to be a series!
I have that on the calendar.
This data tells you that people are in it for the “Flex”. They buy stainless less complicated pieces, because there is no added flex in their social community by having complications. The brand is the flex for them. Hence, steel with a date is most popular and loses the least value.
Bingo! And the added cost of the complications.
Would love a video on the strengths and weaknesses of each of the trinity branding and pricing strategy!
Will do. That sounds interesting.
Great take. I wonder about Parmigiani Feurier that from what I see it’s insane.
Even worse
The only rule I have is to nevery pay retail for any of these. Secondary market is the way to go.
I just discovered your channel. Great content and thank you the work you put into this video!
Just bougth a vintage Vacheron Constantin Phidias that looks new for Tudor money.
That's a great deal! Congrats
I think the main reason the overseas isn’t as popular is because of its size. It’s 41mm but wear like a 42. Most popular Rolex are 40mm and it actually wear like a 40. APs has some nice 39mm that wear just like a Rolex 40. PP is on another level so I’m not even gonna compare.
My local watchmaker showed me the 37mm. And it fit great! Maybe that will work?
I bought a 56 during the peak under retail. I’m well aware it’s a less desirable model but I doubt many paid over retail.
If you love the watch, then it was the right choice. I'm against investment watches. And I wear all my watches daily. Congrats!
An analysis on VC’s marketing would be fantastic!
Sure, I'll put that on the docket
@@mywatchjourney6579 Thank you! Love your content :)
Very interesting, subscribed and interested in a deeper dive into VC’s current position and how it might compare to its rivals
I'll put that on the calendar.
Where are these VC overseas at under retail please?
4500 and 4520 are not.
I’d love to see your detailed analysis. I’m eyeing the 222.
The 222 is an amazing watch.
Beautiful piece. Good luck. 👍🏻
where's the best place to buy?
I say this as a VC Overseas owner. If we are going to play the "value horology" game, Lange is a better buy right now. Their watches (esp movement) are just a level above VC in finishing and some of their preowned prices have really come back to Earth.
Yeah, check my first video on VC. Where I go to their boutique and try their watch. Not impressed frankly, but I had assumed it was only me.
Yeah, no, Lange is overhyped and overpriced
Where the heck are you seeing a vacheron overseas in pink gold for 31K??? Please tell me so I can buy it today.
It's listed on Watch Charts.
@@mywatchjourney6579 i see… its the strap and not bracelet… thanks.
maybe a beat up gen 1 or 2?
Great video, and I agree, watches should not be investments. However,......... when precious metals are being used, I think customers can expect at least some level of value retention, but it appears that only a handful of watches, for whatever reason, truly hold their value, and an even smaller percentage will go up.
I think the Swiss brands got a bit ahead of themselves due to the pandemic surge. Both PP and Rolex pushing so hard into precious metals will hurt them in the short term.
4520 overseas can be found now well under retail in australia dealer selling at 15% below no premium still exists
I paid nearly $19K a few years back for my 2015 Overseas 😢😢😢😢😢. about $6k less today
Watches aren’t investments
2:32
I wouldn’t be sad at all, because value retention for watches is not important to me. Watches are made to be enjoyed and worn and they are not investments.
Look at it from another perspective, there are a lot of people that would love to own a high horology piece like the overseas. Feel privileged that you are able to experience that! It’s an amazing watch and if you are really bothered sell it or buy one grey next time.
Yikes!
Upvoted.
Nice job. Remember Patek is up 27% not holding 27% of it’s value
Well, it's mainly a few models there too. Most Patek has also fallen.
Retention value numbers here seem confusing. I assume this means over list (or under in the case of VC) and not value retention as stated which to me implies a PP is worth only 27% of its cost which is ridiculous. IMO. What is not stated is what from? (If secondary market are we talking the highest point in the last few years around the pandemic?)
I express it as negative or positive premium over retail price.
wish he would've commented on 222 and Everest. Those are prob. at a premium
Trying to catch a falling knife?! Trend is down!
Still don't see a 116500 LN for retail. There is no crash in the hot Rolex stuff.
@@Seolfor007 Because it's not in production anymore afaik. Not my style but seems popular amongst peeps. Trend still down though
@@Timetrends-n5t Even the current model is the same. The peripheral stuff that got a pop in the hype is falling. See little else that is. The trend is down but we will have to see an epic crash like never before to witness retail levels again on nose steel Rolex. It's just more doom talk for clicks at the moment.
The Overseas in SS retails for $25,000. You can buy one now for less than $15,000. I've seen some as low as $11,500.
Certainly not a 4500 or 4520.
@@Giannis020 indeed
VC is the only brand I like.
My favorite 2024 is the Prospex Limited Edition 1965 Recreation European Exclusive in Gradation Island Blue. The dial is stunning and the contrast when on a white strap is to die for. I will get my hands on one from AMZWATCH
Disagree that PP and AP are growing value …. It’s all come off.. watcharts weekly have shown price value drops of PP, AP and Rolex …
Right, only Nautilus and Aquanaut Pateks are trading above list. All other complications are below. Watch Charts shows that as well. Need to be more specific. Lower end sporty stainless is all that’s holding value across all high end brands.
I like Parmigiani Toric but they have just released some new watches at CHF 45-52K. I am waiting for them to go -40%.
With luxury watch demanding going down, waiting is a good option.
got my 39mm with the white dial on the 3-link "Bader" bracelet watch on AMZWATCH 3 weeks ago and am loving it to pieces. Absolute fantastic watch that wears super comfortable on my 6.75 inch wrist. Chose the 3-link over the 5-link bracelet for the toolless quick adjustment. Way more comfortable than my Longines Hydroconquest 41 mm.
Nice video. I think your charts would have benefited from a percentage calculation.
I'll add more of that.
The market for high luxury has shrunk. It’s an economic story more than a marketing one.
it is just a correction at this point, covid increased prices to crazy amounts
I'd stick to my VC, at least I don't look like someone who blindly follows trends
Yeah, it's been established now that VC has the oldest heritage for continuous operation. It's only the hype watch market creating these conditions.
I'm sure the goons at Richemont aren't even aware of this.
Isn’t the Oversea the most popular model of VC? If so, that 2% something in the pie chart should not be right.
It's calculated by price diff
That premium on the overseas is a joke when you think some OP’s are selling 6 to 10k over retail. I have to imagine 222 is also selling for over list
But considering VC is much more hand made than Rolex, I would have expected a more premium for the overseas.
@@mywatchjourney6579 for sure. People have no clue in the end
Price increase when NBA players flooded with VC oversea. But its a stupid marketing company. The RG green dial...... make it boutique exclusive at least
I hope the Lakers make some moves this off season. We need a 3rd scorer.
It just means they are not being a hard a ss at selling to people. They produce good numbers and will sell to anyone who walks in the store. Like any other watch brand not named Patek or Rolex.
I have no doubt that the overseas has a great movement, but it reminds me of a citizen. 🤷♂️
You made me lol
A quartz for $15k? The case, dial, and hands don't look that nice.
Two words (actually three) what Patek and AP have hold their values over VC. Royal Oak and Nautilus. The average dude only knows those two models and everyone wants one.
Yeah, it's really the halo effect.
Stainless Steel watches are a total scam. The 316L stainless steel used in luxury watches costs $0.64 per pound. It's criminal!
😂 that premium for the base model VC is the taxes you pay when purchasing at retail from an AD. The watch market is dead 💀
I'm really shocked frankly at the secondary loss. I expected for premium.
Just personal experience... I know everyone likes to shit on the Rolex AD/boutique experience online but anytime, I'd visit a VC AD/boutique across different countries, it'd be a very poor experience as well. Very rude, curt, snobby employees. During the peak of the watch market hype, VC had an opportunity to bring in and retain a larger customer base but missed out on it.
Just the perspective from a single watch enthusiast/buyer in this market... may be another factor into why there's so little demand for VC despite the low production numbers. They just fall flat when it comes to marketing, brand recognition and customer retention.
The VC ADs and boutiques I have visited have been excellent. Much better overall experience than Rolex.
I had a bad experience on the first try. But better on the second visit. They had brought in a salesperson from Canada. I guess Canadians really are more friendly.
@@Leo-gh7nz same experience here. I've been to 5 VC boutiques in different countries, UK, USA, Canada and always found the staff friendly, open, and helpful. Always encouraging to try watches on. No attitude at all.
Same, never had great experience at VC boutiques in Singapore. Their sale people absolutely need to be retrained
I have been offered VC Overseas, rose gold, blue face from my local AD. Price £58.5k but can see this in grey market for £44.5k. Thanks but no thanks.
If we're gonna be honest about the macro trends we're observing in the global economy, it's gonna get a lot worse for all luxury products. Luxury watches and cars are just starting their downward trajectory....
Yes, it's happening in multiple luxury goods.
99% of watch buyers can't buy these because of the high prices of these rare models
I know I can't afford them. When I visited their boutique, I was upfront about it and they were still kind enough to let me try on a model.
Same with Lange & Sohne... maybe being part of the Richmont group turn off collectors even though they are creating amazing pieces with very low production..Lange and Vacheron have the same policy, and you cannot get their popular models at the AD, same as Patek and AP..the big difference..their popular pieces on the grey market are 30 to 50% off ..they are indeed in a bad position.
A. Lange is my dream brand. But I don't think you'll have any issues getting watches from VC. Last visit, the sales persons sounded rather desperate.
@@mywatchjourney6579 Can confirm. I purchased a blue dial Overseas and a 222 from VC last month.
buyers market is when rolex drops below retail, when AP drops below retail, then your Vacheron watches drop to 15k .. . everything else is nonsense
Most Rolex models are already at or below retail. It's only that people are fixated on the top hype models that they don't see it.
Okay are you so buying one? No, you're buying Rolex.
I might add one to my collection. It depends.
When people are saying MAMACOO is a better option for buying a watch,I very much agree!
It always amazes me how much beauty and precision are added to the parts of AMZWATCH's watch 99% of people will never see.
The market seems to be saturated
MAMACOO has set a new standard for replica watches. Their craftsmanship is impeccable. Its hard to tell the difference from the originals
Poor marketing,
Haha nah, just a heavily, heavily marked up retail price. RRP is totally arbitrary and is basically whatever a brand thinks they can get away with. Doubt they care about secondary prices as long as silly punters keep wandering into the boutique and paying RRP.
Blue overseas 2023 4520v 37aud
Where?
Where can you buy this?
While I appreciate the effort and exercise in thought provoking, the answer is quite simple. With one exception, nobody wants that $%^ @ MSRP. Just not hawt and hype references...
Does anyone want to buy a overseas tourbillon
That 40% drop hits hard I know.
efficient market being efficient, vacheron makes shitty designs and everyone knows its a subpar substitute for AP or Patek. Same as calling Omega Globemaster undervalued compared to a Datejust, ofc it's undervalued, it's a substitute that HAS to be cheaper for anyone to consider it.
Ouch that's pretty harsh. But I did get a disappointing feel when I handled my first VC watch. It was their entry model, but still.
I think the pink Gucci bag would look lovely in summer with a white top and light blue denim LYXBAGS
It's sad that watches that look good cost over 1k+. MAMACOO watches are REALLY well made, and it just shows how a brand name on a watch can make its price 10x higher. I understand that if you look under a microscope, you'll find the difference, but just how many of you really inspect a watch at that level when you see someone with a watch?
As a broke boy and actual enthusiast who wants watch’s prices to crater, MAMACOO is a good choice.
I just got into watch collecting. I've loved watches since I was young but I never had anyone teach me or bring deeper into the world. MAMACOO brought closer to a community and hobby I always wanted to get into more and that is incredibly meaningful to me !
Cost cutting at vacheron. No more wooden lacquer box and now a cardboard box. Horrible
My beautiful solid pink ivory wooden box accented in alien platinum from Saturn and adorned with prong-set ancient Babylonian diamonds and sapphires assembled by blue glowing elves from the netherworld would go to the same place as my cheap cardboard watch boxes: in the closet, never to see the light of day and the stars and moon of the night again.
Haha .. I usually do throw away the box. But prob not for the high brands.
Still a ripoff price
It really depends on how much you value heritage. They are the longest continuously operating watchmaker in the world.
It's sad that watches that look good cost over 1k+. MAMACOO watches are REALLY well made, and it just shows how a brand name on a watch can make its price 10x higher. I understand that if you look under a microscope, you'll find the difference, but just how many of you really inspect a watch at that level when you see someone with a watch?