Get access to global coverage at an exclusive 20% discount at economist.com/moneymacro Further reading from the Economist about the global economy in 2025: 1. www.economist.com/topics/the-world-ahead-2025 2. www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/18/tom-standages-ten-trends-to-watch-in-2025 3. www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/20/calendar-2025
Have you ever thought about making a video series about unorthodox economic policies? Like certain currency reforms, UBI, etc. Just things beside self-defeating policies like Austerity, for example. I feel there is a severe lack of interesting thought to be had in orthodox economics.
@@MoneyMacro Looking forward to it! I often wonder why states don't try bolder strategies (besides the reason that entrenched interests blocking everything). Even ones that have been tried and been successful before.
China rapid adoption of green tech is due to policies not subsidy. US and EU both has subsidy but we do not see smiliar growth. rather it is exclusion zone(can't drive or install in certain part of town) and waiting list(harder to get license plate and approval) that cause people to buy EV and green energy. just giving people carrot doesn't work, of course western government dare not use the stick. that's the real difference.
I highly recomend you do they also help build trust with your audience. Since it show your limit but how you process such inevitable hurdle and grow from it. In the other hand this is the internet where everyone love to use their proverbial red marker to point all one's failing regardless of subject or expertise. @@MoneyMacro
@@MoneyMacro being honest, if people do not like it so much, I think you should do it, your points make a lot of sense and will show that in a timeline, in the past your predictions were more right than wrong. Currently, the “market” makes numerous incorrect predictions, yet individuals continue to accept it as a universal truth.
@@TonyTrupp They're safe bets cos they're vague long term issues. Like apart from the trade war thing, which is gonna happen specifically in 2025 cos that's when he takes office, all the others could've been about any other recent year.
I understand where all your predictions are coming from (as you eloquently explained them) and they all leave me with the feeling that we need to accept the death of the modern economic system and start rebuilding before it is too late.
I love your last prediction. Being humble and understanding the difficulty of making accurate predictions is something that most UA-camrs don’t do. I appreciate your honesty and you’re being humble.
@@alst4817 Bruh almost everything he says is how other parts of the world are gonna fall in one way or another, but that the us will reign supreme due to its myriad advantages either economic, political or especially geographical.
It's insane to me that Trumps wants to put 25% tariffs on his neighbours, even if its to pressure through a new deal. Even though the current deal that he wants to destroy was created by his office... 🤦♂
It's the art of the deal, threatens all kinds of tariffs to bring you to the table. Then do a deal. But don't be fooled still, at the end, he will make sure it's not balanced, America always wins. He knows the US has the upper hand.
Would love to see an analysis on Brazil. GDP is growing at more than 3% and unemployment is low. On the other hand, the nominal deficits amount to ~10% of GDP and the government bonds are paying from 8 to 10% real interest rates.
It's refreshing to hear a more rational take on AI. I know I just posted an AI related video so I'm calling the kettle black on that one... but aside from simple little tasks and the outright entertainment value (which is more or less where I'm at), there hasn't been much practical advancements in AI quite yet.
You are enthusiastic about green energy but it would be quite interesting if you did a video separating out subsidies etc from the cost and looking at the real energy value/cost of various green energy solutions - that really are only partial solutions since they require an associated baseline energy source besides.
Could you expand your point on "AI bubble" a bit further, or make predictions in that regard in a video? Many people think there's a bubble there but the stocks keep going up and tech giants as well as market has forecasted growth in 2025.
While the last prediction is good for manufacturers of EV’s, the overall economic impact is not that great. However as a Segway its possible 2025 will see us deploying green energy, including nuclear, in a far more efficient manner. That would have a major economic impact. I also suspect energy costs as a whole may drop, driving by increased oil and gas production. That would have an ever greater positive economic impact. But the debt issue is a major one and i suspect that dealing with that may well cause significant political disruption.
I've never really thought of "austerity" as reduced spending and/or tax increases. In practice, it's often used to refer to reduced spending and tax cuts for the wealthy.
Your conclusion on the graph at 5:20 seems flawed. You say the slope is decreasing, thereby indicating slowed growth, but the y axis is non-linear! That artificially (and incorrectly) makes the graph look like its slowing
We are pretending to stimulate our own thinking. But if you test us tomorrow after watching this video, the average test score by respondents will be a correct answer score of 67 percent. Yes, just after one day, the test takers will be able to do no better than two out of three correct answers.
Hi , I hope you're doing well! I really admire the content you create and find it incredibly valuable. I was wondering if I could have your permission to use some of your videos and dub them into Persian for my channel. Of course, I will give full credit to your channel and include links to your original videos in the description. Please let me know if this is something you'd be open to. Thank you for your time and consideration! Best regards, Amir
About P3: We might see a major shift incoming, when educated people who is doing mainly administrative tasks, transfer to more r&d roles, being their former tasks replaced by AI, and the new roles heavily aided by it. Plus, everyone with a screen and internet can get education, so poor countries can catch up faster. Maybe not a 2025 thing, but educated workforce doesnt seem to be a productivity growth constrain over the long term.
Inflation came back down to earth, but prices certainly didn't. And that's the one thing everyone talking about that issue seems to forget. Just because prices aren't going up at an insane pace doesn't suddenly mean things are affordable now.
Eh, I’m afraid you misunderstood the assignment. These are things that will happen in the future, not things that will happen in 2025. The point of a video like this should be to give predictions relating to the short term.
I love that he is so frank about his predictions. Most economists think they need to make educated guesses on everything and stand by their bullshit, no matter how things develop and change.
Great video as always, you have an interesting paradox happening if 2 of your original 5 predictions are right but 3 are wrong, because then your last prediction about "most of your predictions being wrong" is right, meaning you have 3 predictions right and 3 predictions wrong, then meaning that it's not true that most of your predictions are wrong (3 vs 3), meaning that its actually 2 vs 4, which again makes the last prediction right, etc.
I will say this I think your comment on productivity is partially if not mainly fueled by Rising inequality because it prevents the lower classes from participating in ever-growing consumption
Btw as a person with design knowledge: the thumbnail looks visually cool and has an emotional impact of grasping the world, it doesn't target emotions people have for economy with storytelling. The globe isn't really associated with economy, maybe a different type of globe out with additional data like money or industry. I don't feel like people feel grasping or controlling the economy, maybe uncertainty with curiosity or with a bit of dread. I'm not a member of the community, thought to give something back when you need to stabilize your business.
Good stuff, i see that we will see many innovations next year on the quantum level driven via AI/large computing. This will be in chips/batteries/solar panels/metallurgy and much more it is an underestimated field in the media. Just as huge as AI for sure.
No quantum computers to date are in a usable condition - none are actually even near the performance of a serious conventional workstation level performance let alone super computer levels. There are still many fundamental challenges to solve before quantum computers are better at anything non trivial than conventional - I await the day, but I don't think it will be this decade. And no current ML models aren't helping with advanced material sciences, which is what every hard engineering problem has to solve - especially when the real challenge in science is getting reasonable, diligent, ethical scientists and not the academia publish-to-survive ones.
@@SnowBalling no. Exact predictions are close to impossible. But, conditional predictions can still be made. If you do this then this will likely happen
Could you analyse -job chances for EU ingeneers in automotive and companies linked to automotive. More recently more and more colleagues of mine have lost their job in automotive. As for example at ZF. Do they need to find a job in China? What about this type of well-paid , qualified job. What to do with this workforce.
Zeihan’s actually not far off on geopolitics; especially with regards to the Middle East. His call on Turkey becoming more central seemed far out a year or so back; not any longer.
Would love a look back video next year and still good idea tho! I love hearing the rationale and lookback easier to explain since hindsight is 20/20. Will be funny to see where market was wrong too lol
Unfortunately, I predict that the unstoppable March of renewables will, in the short term, mean that Petro states will redouble their efforts to pump as much oil or of the ground as they can, as quickly as they can, to try to derive maximum profit while there is still higher demand for oil. However, this will just further accelerate the worsening of the climate emergency. So, even if we are largely renewable in 10 years time, the damage will be done, and runaway climate heating will continue accelerating for decades to come, no matter the adoption of renewables. I also noted that what you had missing from options to deal with high debt to GDP ratios is RAISING TAXES on wealthy individuals and corporations. That's a much less cruel way to address debt than austerity.
Here's a nutty idea: Coyotes [and surely many other organisms] somehow adjust their brood sizes depending on resource availability and extinction threats; is it possible humans can do the same? Coyotes surely do not understand this mechanism consciously; maybe we can't either...
Joeri, you forgot to talk about the massive AI infrastructure investments in 2025 (datacenters, power plants & transmission etc to power GPUs). Even if AI doesn't increase productivity in 2025, these investments alone will trigger GDP growth - just like it did at the end of the 90s when building the Internet infrastructure. Building those datacenters is already boosting many manufacturing industries and will accelerate next year.
@MoneyMacro and I think you are wrong. We're talking about a couple hundred billions of incremental investment for GPU and Datacenters alone - and there's a multiplier effect of course. Half a trillion of total impact would be 0.5% growth for the World economy - most of it in the US and a few other countries like Taiwan and Malaysia
Ironically, the main interrogation now is indeed to know if these massive investments are really rational and econimically sustainable. These delirium CAPEX are what could trigger the massive correction in US stocks and wipe out billions in valuation worldwide if the 7 magnificients are unable to convince that they can generate decent revenues from IA to justify these investments. See you on march april to have a first stress test.
@@realruppert351 I'd argue it is too soon to worry - AI labs have giant 2-3year investment plans and will pursue it regardless of near-term financial returns, the LT opportunity is just too large. Other metrics like user growth are more relevant IMO at this point of the cycle, but this is trending very well
In regard to the possibility of Canada having a debt crisis, I think we're more likely to have a crisis due to the extremely high level of consumer debt, rather than government debt. Consumer debt in Canada is now 2.5 trillion (Canadian) dollars, an astonishing amount. I'm pretty sure it's unprecedented in our history. I don't know how a consumer debt crisis would play out, but it seems pretty likely to me. When the majority of Canadians owe at least $21000 and depend on credit cards to pay for basic needs, it looks like the economy is broken somehow. Who owns that debt? Is the whole 2.5 trillion on the books of credit card companies? If consumer debt is increasing at an increasing rate, there may come a day when those companies get in trouble themselves, because it's obvious they're never going to get their money back. And if they stop loaning money to ordinary citizens, the whole economy could crumble. Consumer spending would fall dramatically, dragging everything else down with it. And who would bail is out? The government? Not when the problem is that huge. They'd have their own debt crisis if they tried.
It's ironic that the negative point of the slowing global economy was followed by the "positive" point of continuing solar power adoption, which is mostly fueled by government subsidies (not even close to price competitive without them), which those subsidies in turn are government spending and contribute to the previous problem... Excessive debt and slow growth. Do modern economies have any reliable way of growing beyond massive and unsustainable deficit spending? Because a lot of advanced economies are near their breaking point in debt to GDP ratios. Are there truly no other ideas?
I do love how the US wants to cut Social Security because it's a debt component. But it IS not. Because it's funded by Payroll taxes. The reason why "American Government wants to cut Social Security" is because US Business has to match the Payroll tax that it's employee's pay into to this program. The Business sector would love to eliminate their matching 6.25% of Payroll tax that they have to pay to match their employee's contributions. But even if Social Security becomes insolvent, meaning that the Trust Fund is depleted, all that will mean is that beneficiaries will realize a catastrophic cut in benefits of about 30 Percent as only the actual payroll contributions being outlaid by workers and their matching contributions from employers will be funding future benefits when that Trust Fund insolvency crisis happens, sometime in the early 2030's
While the solar energy panels usage grows rapidly, what's with solar panel recycling? Did scientists find the way to recycle them? I mean, yes, solar energy is good for those countries which are trying to be independent from Putin (mutual dependency is though often perceived as key for stopping wars in long perspective), but wouldn't it be better if i.e. Germany put back to functioning nuclear plants?
Borrow money from your own central bank, not the market. Then write it off. As long as you have some unused resources. If economy is running at full physical capacity., more borrowing from central bank will just fuel,inflation.
I have heard some varying estimates of Mainland China's actual population. What is China's real population? Something like about 1.34 Billion. But I have heard that that is quite an over statement. Some have put China's population at 860 Million. That's a huge discrepancy.
Financial repression in India : any amount exceeding 7lakh (roughly entry level car here, whose staandard is already too low) attracts 20% tds and interest rate is taxed at 30%
They lowered their inflation down (They passed Turkey now we are in just above zimbabwe now fuck) and they give positive in government spendings but their growth got effected a lot.
It's hard to call the demographic prediction a prediction, especially in a single year window. At this scale, you are essentially predicting that mentioned countries will not experience a dramatic, sudden and non-reversible increase/decrease in quality of life that will immediately reflect in birth/death rates or age of retirement and immigration. Regarding innovation, the decreased rate of innovation due to demographics in developed countries could also, instead, allow less developed countries to break the historic trend and catch up to developed countries, for the same number of researchers reason.
Prediction: on 2025 economists will still spend half the time predicting the future and the other half explaining why their predictions didn't materialise. Jokes aside, it was a great video.
Why would call "UK" as debt crisis candidate, but not the US? The US has higher debt, and makes higher deficits, even when balancing out the gdp growth. I find it very scary that so many just take it as a given, that the US will never get any debt problems. Even though their path is very much unsustainable, despite all the "wonder-growth".
Because they have the reserve currency status. I think they can hold out a bit longer still. But, yeah, in line with my sixth prediction... there's really no way to know for sure or exactly. All of this depends on a ton of different interactions and we don't even have complete data on most debt holders, their problems, intentions, etc etc.
@@MoneyMacro Well, you also say in 2025. I do not expect that bubble will burst in 2025. But this is really a scary thing. Soooo many economists and politicions are really hitting the "spending" drum and act like debt is no problem anymore. I really have some 2007 flashbacks, when everyone acted, like mortgage-debt can never go into default.
The UK having practically no growth and a high import to gdp ratio: currently 36.2% compared to the US's 15.6% likely makes the biggest difference. The UK is highly dependent on Currency exchange ratios for a larger amount of its economy making it difficult to inflate and grow its way into a stable debt situation.
@@Twinkie_DogeYou should take a look at the structure of US debt. About 12% of it is owed to the Federal Reserve and 27% to the US government. So there is no real problem with it. The US could simply forgive part of its own debt without any consequences.
Let's make sure MoneyMacro cycles back at the end of 2025 to review his predictions for the year. I've sound whatever economist predict the opposite happens.
Get access to global coverage at an exclusive 20% discount at economist.com/moneymacro
Further reading from the Economist about the global economy in 2025:
1. www.economist.com/topics/the-world-ahead-2025
2. www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/18/tom-standages-ten-trends-to-watch-in-2025
3. www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/20/calendar-2025
How many people does it live in china?
Have you ever thought about making a video series about unorthodox economic policies? Like certain currency reforms, UBI, etc. Just things beside self-defeating policies like Austerity, for example.
I feel there is a severe lack of interesting thought to be had in orthodox economics.
@@HannesRadke ubi (close at least) video coming up
@@MoneyMacro Looking forward to it! I often wonder why states don't try bolder strategies (besides the reason that entrenched interests blocking everything). Even ones that have been tried and been successful before.
China rapid adoption of green tech is due to policies not subsidy. US and EU both has subsidy but we do not see smiliar growth. rather it is exclusion zone(can't drive or install in certain part of town) and waiting list(harder to get license plate and approval) that cause people to buy EV and green energy. just giving people carrot doesn't work, of course western government dare not use the stick. that's the real difference.
next year you should make a follow up, where you reflect on your predictions
If people like this video. I will do this for sure. It was certainly a lot of fun to make.
@@MoneyMacro Please do so:)
I highly recomend you do they also help build trust with your audience. Since it show your limit but how you process such inevitable hurdle and grow from it. In the other hand this is the internet where everyone love to use their proverbial red marker to point all one's failing regardless of subject or expertise. @@MoneyMacro
@@MoneyMacro being honest, if people do not like it so much, I think you should do it, your points make a lot of sense and will show that in a timeline, in the past your predictions were more right than wrong. Currently, the “market” makes numerous incorrect predictions, yet individuals continue to accept it as a universal truth.
@@MoneyMacro Just Do It !
There should be a cup: ten economists and ten astrologers. Whichever team makes the most correct predictions will win the cup for a year.
Probably astrologists they are better at seeing patterns and just do a simpson predictions. Scammers tend to ne successful about these subjects
The team of philosophers may be banned for being too boring. Their predictions are like meteorology - being right about bad weather isn’t popular…
Astrology is literally fake. Economists are using real raw data.
Economists aren't great at predicting the future, but even they will easily beat out astrologers lol.
@@ArawnOfAnnwn Come on they are terrible at that. You give them too much credit
Respect for including #6
Everybody would dunked on him if he didn't say that.
Noone can predict the future, least of all economists. 😂
Jokes aside, great video.
😂 u watch him too...awesome
Some of these do seem like pretty safe bets though, like the “tough choices over government debt.”
@@TonyTrupp They're safe bets cos they're vague long term issues. Like apart from the trade war thing, which is gonna happen specifically in 2025 cos that's when he takes office, all the others could've been about any other recent year.
@@edwardmooka4092 EE is mostly entertainment. Money & Macro is much more evidence-based.
@@edwardmooka4092 every idiot watches economics explained to feel smart because they understand his brabbling
Prediction: Developed countries that have the lowest cost electricity production will be by far the most successful over the next 25 years.
Yepp, that's why the US is predicted to have a GDP per capita of 100,000 in 2030
That would be Australia and to some extent USA. Also the sunny developing countries like India, pakistan etc.
@@philoslother4602 Right before shooting down precipitously
@@kushalvora7682Saudi Arabia?
Dont forget the UK!
Thank you for the video!
"Nobody can predict the future, least of all economists" 🤔 Feels like I've heard that before 😏
Predictions are worth gold for future historians. It's a quick springboard into that years trends and mentality. This needs to be archived!
Thanks, well thought out predictions.
Love seeing this pop up in my feed again. This channel has always been so good!! Thanks for the work and effort you make!
I understand where all your predictions are coming from (as you eloquently explained them) and they all leave me with the feeling that we need to accept the death of the modern economic system and start rebuilding before it is too late.
I love your last prediction. Being humble and understanding the difficulty of making accurate predictions is something that most UA-camrs don’t do.
I appreciate your honesty and you’re being humble.
I really liked the last prediction :')
You're seem to be honest and self-awere. Thanks for your videos!
i used to watch peter zeihan for this type of stuff, i think ill turn to your channel from now for this.
Yeah this guy is way more professional with way less baggage.
Zeihan tells his primarily American audience what they like hearing. And he's been famously wrong, but never admits it.
@@ArawnOfAnnwnI think Zeihan is a buffoon, but he’s hardly telling Americans what they want to hear
@@alst4817 Bruh almost everything he says is how other parts of the world are gonna fall in one way or another, but that the us will reign supreme due to its myriad advantages either economic, political or especially geographical.
@@ArawnOfAnnwnI’m not an American, those geographic and demographic advantages are real not imagined.
Dr. Schasfoort, thank you for your enlightenment effort & for how weighted and articulated your assessments are. Merry coming Christmas and Hanukkah ❤
Happy New Year to you.
I thought the last thing economists should do is predict the future?
Yes.... but.... see last part of the video :)
I could have predicted some people would comment without watching the video in its entirety...
How much of the video did you watch before you were seized by the uncontrollable impulse to comment?
If you're doing science you should make predictions. If you don't have falsifiable predictions, you're just a quack.
Your predictions match exactly what I have been published about for some time. I don't believe you are wrong. 😊
Thanks for sharing /s
Id love to see a reflection at the end of 2025 to see how and why your predictions panned out. I wish more forecasters did that. Its super intresting.
It's insane to me that Trumps wants to put 25% tariffs on his neighbours, even if its to pressure through a new deal. Even though the current deal that he wants to destroy was created by his office... 🤦♂
It's the art of the deal, threatens all kinds of tariffs to bring you to the table. Then do a deal. But don't be fooled still, at the end, he will make sure it's not balanced, America always wins. He knows the US has the upper hand.
You don’t seem to understand how trump speaks and why.
Your read my mind with your last prediction!
It was really interesting. Please make more prediction videos even if this one os not popular 😊
Would love to see an analysis on Brazil. GDP is growing at more than 3% and unemployment is low. On the other hand, the nominal deficits amount to ~10% of GDP and the government bonds are paying from 8 to 10% real interest rates.
I think you do quite well....and even if in the end wrong you are inspiring and make people reflect and that is an important achievement 😊
Great video and kudos for prediction number 6 !
Awesome video as usual. Nice reality check at the end, well done. Happy holidays to you and the family.
It's refreshing to hear a more rational take on AI. I know I just posted an AI related video so I'm calling the kettle black on that one... but aside from simple little tasks and the outright entertainment value (which is more or less where I'm at), there hasn't been much practical advancements in AI quite yet.
Thanks Joeri.
Great video
You are enthusiastic about green energy but it would be quite interesting if you did a video separating out subsidies etc from the cost and looking at the real energy value/cost of various green energy solutions - that really are only partial solutions since they require an associated baseline energy source besides.
Awesome thumbnail
Could you expand your point on "AI bubble" a bit further, or make predictions in that regard in a video? Many people think there's a bubble there but the stocks keep going up and tech giants as well as market has forecasted growth in 2025.
While the last prediction is good for manufacturers of EV’s, the overall economic impact is not that great. However as a Segway its possible 2025 will see us deploying green energy, including nuclear, in a far more efficient manner. That would have a major economic impact. I also suspect energy costs as a whole may drop, driving by increased oil and gas production. That would have an ever greater positive economic impact. But the debt issue is a major one and i suspect that dealing with that may well cause significant political disruption.
If it goes without violence I'll be very surprised.
I've never really thought of "austerity" as reduced spending and/or tax increases. In practice, it's often used to refer to reduced spending and tax cuts for the wealthy.
You forgot the most important prediction: stonks always go up.
Your conclusion on the graph at 5:20 seems flawed. You say the slope is decreasing, thereby indicating slowed growth, but the y axis is non-linear! That artificially (and incorrectly) makes the graph look like its slowing
We are pretending to stimulate our own thinking. But if you test us tomorrow after watching this video, the average test score by respondents will be a correct answer score of 67 percent. Yes, just after one day, the test takers will be able to do no better than two out of three correct answers.
Hi ,
I hope you're doing well! I really admire the content you create and find it incredibly valuable. I was wondering if I could have your permission to use some of your videos and dub them into Persian for my channel. Of course, I will give full credit to your channel and include links to your original videos in the description.
Please let me know if this is something you'd be open to. Thank you for your time and consideration!
Best regards,
Amir
Enjoyed the vid, you should do tier-lists and react vids next xD
Making predictions is fun. Checking on them at the end of the year is fun too.
Can you please keep the charts up longer? I keep having to pause the video to look at them.
Make a video on Brazil.
large projects require long term plans so you have to forecast something
you should make a follow up based on how your predictions turn out
when will you do a video on complex economics?
About P3: We might see a major shift incoming, when educated people who is doing mainly administrative tasks, transfer to more r&d roles, being their former tasks replaced by AI, and the new roles heavily aided by it. Plus, everyone with a screen and internet can get education, so poor countries can catch up faster. Maybe not a 2025 thing, but educated workforce doesnt seem to be a productivity growth constrain over the long term.
Money and Macro Needs a discord server
Inflation came back down to earth, but prices certainly didn't. And that's the one thing everyone talking about that issue seems to forget. Just because prices aren't going up at an insane pace doesn't suddenly mean things are affordable now.
Ty senpai
Eh, I’m afraid you misunderstood the assignment. These are things that will happen in the future, not things that will happen in 2025. The point of a video like this should be to give predictions relating to the short term.
Hey guys, Alemio’s roadmap looks promising, and the presale process was smooth. Took a small position today.
All of this make sense.
The reason I watched this is to see how will them make no sense in later days.
While Bessent is less hawkish on tarrifs, the commerce secretary can also create tariffs and his pick there is far more hawkish.
I love that he is so frank about his predictions. Most economists think they need to make educated guesses on everything and stand by their bullshit, no matter how things develop and change.
Well the green Transition indeed surprised in Germany with the Decision to Shut down a lot of Green Energy Infrastructure xD
5:24 bit weird to show slowing growth on a logaritmic scale.
Do you want to measure growth in % or absolute numbers? If the former, log scale is correct
Great video as always, you have an interesting paradox happening if 2 of your original 5 predictions are right but 3 are wrong, because then your last prediction about "most of your predictions being wrong" is right, meaning you have 3 predictions right and 3 predictions wrong, then meaning that it's not true that most of your predictions are wrong (3 vs 3), meaning that its actually 2 vs 4, which again makes the last prediction right, etc.
I will say this I think your comment on productivity is partially if not mainly fueled by Rising inequality because it prevents the lower classes from participating in ever-growing consumption
Even Henry Ford figured this out that if he pays his workers enough then they will purchase his shit too. I know it’s mind boggling.
9:40 im guessing this is USD and kW/h but it'd be nice if i didn't have go guess
Suggestion: Leave your graphics on the screen for more the 5 nanoseconds. We don't all have photographic memories. 😮
Prediction: Everyone gets dumber.
Thats a very pretentious statement
Yeah, social media is the worst. Only a few people watch intelligent channels like this, but vast majority watch things that actively rot beains.
People have been saying this for thusands of years, and it has always been false.
This is true for the audience of this channel
@xiphoid2011 after a busy day people need relaxing entertainment
Btw as a person with design knowledge: the thumbnail looks visually cool and has an emotional impact of grasping the world, it doesn't target emotions people have for economy with storytelling. The globe isn't really associated with economy, maybe a different type of globe out with additional data like money or industry. I don't feel like people feel grasping or controlling the economy, maybe uncertainty with curiosity or with a bit of dread.
I'm not a member of the community, thought to give something back when you need to stabilize your business.
Good stuff, i see that we will see many innovations next year on the quantum level driven via AI/large computing. This will be in chips/batteries/solar panels/metallurgy and much more it is an underestimated field in the media. Just as huge as AI for sure.
No quantum computers to date are in a usable condition - none are actually even near the performance of a serious conventional workstation level performance let alone super computer levels.
There are still many fundamental challenges to solve before quantum computers are better at anything non trivial than conventional - I await the day, but I don't think it will be this decade.
And no current ML models aren't helping with advanced material sciences, which is what every hard engineering problem has to solve - especially when the real challenge in science is getting reasonable, diligent, ethical scientists and not the academia publish-to-survive ones.
Can you talk about ai automation and jobs?
So is there no point to macroeconomics if predictions can't be made?
Or is it just a descriptive field that only explains what's currently happening?
@@SnowBalling no. Exact predictions are close to impossible. But, conditional predictions can still be made. If you do this then this will likely happen
Could you analyse -job chances for EU ingeneers in automotive and companies linked to automotive. More recently more and more colleagues of mine have lost their job in automotive. As for example at ZF. Do they need to find a job in China? What about this type of well-paid , qualified job. What to do with this workforce.
You should have a talk with Peter Zeihan and tell him to stop predicting the future.
He said Joe Biden would win the election. And he also said Russia would win against Ukraine. I'm hoping the latter is as wrong as the former.
Zeihan’s actually not far off on geopolitics; especially with regards to the Middle East. His call on Turkey becoming more central seemed far out a year or so back; not any longer.
I really wish politicians and political pundits in Canada watched this
Now that you have the easier predictions out of the way, tell me how and when the stock market will react to each of the crises.
"Cutting government's budget will make Americans poorer" thats an interesting take considering all government's money is from its citizens
I think you should do a video looking back at 2024 and review your predictions from last year.
I didn't make any predictions last year. This is me trying it for the first time to see if people like this sort of video.
Would love a look back video next year and still good idea tho! I love hearing the rationale and lookback easier to explain since hindsight is 20/20. Will be funny to see where market was wrong too lol
How accurate were your predictions about 2024??
Nz govt is talking about greater allocation of kiwisaver into local infrastructure projects already
At 6:00 is this not Marx's 'tendency of rate of profit to fall' theory?
I believe Egypt and mentioned countries dealing IMF cannot do the repression choice
Unfortunately, I predict that the unstoppable March of renewables will, in the short term, mean that Petro states will redouble their efforts to pump as much oil or of the ground as they can, as quickly as they can, to try to derive maximum profit while there is still higher demand for oil. However, this will just further accelerate the worsening of the climate emergency. So, even if we are largely renewable in 10 years time, the damage will be done, and runaway climate heating will continue accelerating for decades to come, no matter the adoption of renewables.
I also noted that what you had missing from options to deal with high debt to GDP ratios is RAISING TAXES on wealthy individuals and corporations. That's a much less cruel way to address debt than austerity.
Here's a nutty idea: Coyotes [and surely many other organisms] somehow adjust their brood sizes depending on resource availability and extinction threats; is it possible humans can do the same? Coyotes surely do not understand this mechanism consciously; maybe we can't either...
Generally people who aren't poor already have fewer children.
Joeri, you forgot to talk about the massive AI infrastructure investments in 2025 (datacenters, power plants & transmission etc to power GPUs). Even if AI doesn't increase productivity in 2025, these investments alone will trigger GDP growth - just like it did at the end of the 90s when building the Internet infrastructure.
Building those datacenters is already boosting many manufacturing industries and will accelerate next year.
yeah. But, I don't think these investment numbers are big enough to significantly alter the GDP growth trend.
@MoneyMacro and I think you are wrong. We're talking about a couple hundred billions of incremental investment for GPU and Datacenters alone - and there's a multiplier effect of course. Half a trillion of total impact would be 0.5% growth for the World economy - most of it in the US and a few other countries like Taiwan and Malaysia
@@MoneyMacrofor countries like thailand with 500billion gdp, 1-2 billion usd here and there for data center and IT infrastructure are god sent.
Ironically, the main interrogation now is indeed to know if these massive investments are really rational and econimically sustainable. These delirium CAPEX are what could trigger the massive correction in US stocks and wipe out billions in valuation worldwide if the 7 magnificients are unable to convince that they can generate decent revenues from IA to justify these investments. See you on march april to have a first stress test.
@@realruppert351 I'd argue it is too soon to worry - AI labs have giant 2-3year investment plans and will pursue it regardless of near-term financial returns, the LT opportunity is just too large.
Other metrics like user growth are more relevant IMO at this point of the cycle, but this is trending very well
In regard to the possibility of Canada having a debt crisis, I think we're more likely to have a crisis due to the extremely high level of consumer debt, rather than government debt. Consumer debt in Canada is now 2.5 trillion (Canadian) dollars, an astonishing amount. I'm pretty sure it's unprecedented in our history.
I don't know how a consumer debt crisis would play out, but it seems pretty likely to me. When the majority of Canadians owe at least $21000 and depend on credit cards to pay for basic needs, it looks like the economy is broken somehow. Who owns that debt? Is the whole 2.5 trillion on the books of credit card companies? If consumer debt is increasing at an increasing rate, there may come a day when those companies get in trouble themselves, because it's obvious they're never going to get their money back. And if they stop loaning money to ordinary citizens, the whole economy could crumble. Consumer spending would fall dramatically, dragging everything else down with it. And who would bail is out? The government? Not when the problem is that huge. They'd have their own debt crisis if they tried.
It's ironic that the negative point of the slowing global economy was followed by the "positive" point of continuing solar power adoption, which is mostly fueled by government subsidies (not even close to price competitive without them), which those subsidies in turn are government spending and contribute to the previous problem... Excessive debt and slow growth.
Do modern economies have any reliable way of growing beyond massive and unsustainable deficit spending? Because a lot of advanced economies are near their breaking point in debt to GDP ratios. Are there truly no other ideas?
I do love how the US wants to cut Social Security because it's a debt component. But it IS not. Because it's funded by Payroll taxes. The reason why "American Government wants to cut Social Security" is because US Business has to match the Payroll tax that it's employee's pay into to this program. The Business sector would love to eliminate their matching 6.25% of Payroll tax that they have to pay to match their employee's contributions.
But even if Social Security becomes insolvent, meaning that the Trust Fund is depleted, all that will mean is that beneficiaries will realize a catastrophic cut in benefits of about 30 Percent as only the actual payroll contributions being outlaid by workers and their matching contributions from employers will be funding future benefits when that Trust Fund insolvency crisis happens, sometime in the early 2030's
You should make a video "Why my predictions seldom become true"
While the solar energy panels usage grows rapidly, what's with solar panel recycling? Did scientists find the way to recycle them? I mean, yes, solar energy is good for those countries which are trying to be independent from Putin (mutual dependency is though often perceived as key for stopping wars in long perspective), but wouldn't it be better if i.e. Germany put back to functioning nuclear plants?
Borrow money from your own central bank, not the market. Then write it off. As long as you have some unused resources. If economy is running at full physical capacity., more borrowing from central bank will just fuel,inflation.
Prediction 4, all economies will choose to refinance their covid bonds by the end of the year regardless of interest rates or bond yields
I have heard some varying estimates of Mainland China's actual population.
What is China's real population? Something like about 1.34 Billion.
But I have heard that that is quite an over statement. Some have put China's population at 860 Million. That's a huge discrepancy.
Here is an idea for your next video: Have we reached peak humanity?
Financial repression in India : any amount exceeding 7lakh (roughly entry level car here, whose staandard is already too low) attracts 20% tds and interest rate is taxed at 30%
how Argentina is doing?
They lowered their inflation down (They passed Turkey now we are in just above zimbabwe now fuck) and they give positive in government spendings but their growth got effected a lot.
what is the point of chapters if you name them 'Prediction 1, 2' etc - lame
The Alemio team seems to really know what they’re doing. Their updates are detailed, and they actually listen to feedback. Refreshing to see!
Just a few weeks ago, I didn’t even know Alemio existed, and now I’m all in. This presale has been a wild ride!
It's hard to call the demographic prediction a prediction, especially in a single year window. At this scale, you are essentially predicting that mentioned countries will not experience a dramatic, sudden and non-reversible increase/decrease in quality of life that will immediately reflect in birth/death rates or age of retirement and immigration.
Regarding innovation, the decreased rate of innovation due to demographics in developed countries could also, instead, allow less developed countries to break the historic trend and catch up to developed countries, for the same number of researchers reason.
Prediction: on 2025 economists will still spend half the time predicting the future and the other half explaining why their predictions didn't materialise.
Jokes aside, it was a great video.
What about robots.???
Watch out for thorium reactors breakthrough, it's for next decade
Why would call "UK" as debt crisis candidate, but not the US?
The US has higher debt, and makes higher deficits, even when balancing out the gdp growth.
I find it very scary that so many just take it as a given, that the US will never get any debt problems. Even though their path is very much unsustainable, despite all the "wonder-growth".
Because they have the reserve currency status. I think they can hold out a bit longer still.
But, yeah, in line with my sixth prediction... there's really no way to know for sure or exactly. All of this depends on a ton of different interactions and we don't even have complete data on most debt holders, their problems, intentions, etc etc.
@@MoneyMacro Well, you also say in 2025.
I do not expect that bubble will burst in 2025.
But this is really a scary thing. Soooo many economists and politicions are really hitting the "spending" drum and act like debt is no problem anymore.
I really have some 2007 flashbacks, when everyone acted, like mortgage-debt can never go into default.
The UK having practically no growth and a high import to gdp ratio: currently 36.2% compared to the US's 15.6% likely makes the biggest difference. The UK is highly dependent on Currency exchange ratios for a larger amount of its economy making it difficult to inflate and grow its way into a stable debt situation.
@@Twinkie_DogeYou should take a look at the structure of US debt. About 12% of it is owed to the Federal Reserve and 27% to the US government. So there is no real problem with it. The US could simply forgive part of its own debt without any consequences.
@@MoneyMacro Britain is dealing with it's so-called 'debt-crisis' now we heavier taxes (mostly on the rich) and cutting more fat.
Let's make sure MoneyMacro cycles back at the end of 2025 to review his predictions for the year. I've sound whatever economist predict the opposite happens.
US already has a 102% tax on Chinese EVs. Even if Trump starts slowly he'll raise it to 150%