Neil Howe: Crisis Looms Now That The Fourth Turning Is Here
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- Опубліковано 5 жов 2024
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It's said that history unfolds in cycles.
That civilizations and societies boom, bust and rise anew to repeat the pattern -- a pattern that is surprisingly predictable in both its timing and trajectory.
Today's guest expert is demographer Neil Howe, co-author of the book The Fourth Turning, a seminal work in which he and his fellow researcher William Strauss laid out the evidence for these "seasons" of societal change that they referred to as "turnings".
When that book first came out in 1997, Howe & Strauss warned that the next societal "winter" -- the next "4th turning" to use their label -- would begin early on in the new millennium.
In his brand new sequel, "The Fourth Turning Is Here", Howe reveals that we are now indeed deep within a Fourth Turning that started roughly in 2008, commensurate with the Global Financial Crisis.
Our current society has entered the "bust" part of its cycle -- where the status quo falls apart -- often chaotically.
What should we expect from this period of disruption? Are there steps we can take to improve our odds of persevering?
And perhaps more importantly, how can we position ourselves to play a constructive role -- and possibly thrive -- as this Fourth Turning concludes, to be replaced -- as history suggests -- by a new & hopefully better, order.
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Suggestions: Future interviews with Neil should focus on navigation of 4th turning rather than 1st turning.. as we all got to survive the coming crisis over next 10 years. I'd rather learn about the pain we will go through and how to navigate investments in a world of CBDC, inflation, possibly loss or reduction of social security & medicare. IMHO, navigation of next 10 years is critical, else you don't make it 1st Turning. Adam, consider putting more interview time on this commodity and tangible asset investment during the 4th Turning crisis
Problem is "the crisis" is never known until your in it, so go ahead and plan for every contingency, good luck. It isn't that don't prep or plan, focusing on what is most important, family, financial etc. Prepare for change, become more community orientated, helping others etc.
yes on the commodity and tangible assets. Also consider which private companies will survive this, invest in their stocks and corporate bonds. but to the extent loss of confidence in Government contributes to hyperinflation and currency collapse, make gold bigger than the old 5-10%, any "profit" on stocks and corporate bonds will be taxed at ever increasing rates. I do have short-term treasuries and a few i-bonds for some USD inflation protection, may buy small amount of TIPs 5 yr at October auction, but will generally not touch duration over 2 years unless for a swing trade.
Neil is brilliant. The book is fascinating and very educational. It gives a new perspective on world history. The book is a must read.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain
Priceless! Soooooo true……
I thought it was weak men create strong trans women?
KThe I’ll pttrj
Interesting conversation. However, I’m MUCH less optimistic about successfully making it through a “4th Turning”. In past crises, nearly everyone from the wealthy on down shared the twin pillars of Faith and Family. Any societal indicator that one examines today (e.g. illegitimacy, church attendance, belief in God, etc.) demonstrates that we’ve drifted far away from the values and norms that guided our predecessors through hard times. So unless we can recover these core Western principles, I’m afraid that any attempts at rebuilding society will be built on a foundation of sand.
Very well put. That’s what scares me the most.
I agree. However, isn't the idea that in order go back to this there will have to be a great upheaval, a baptism if fire if you will. The hedonism of the 20's and 30's was destroyed by ww2 and austerity and conservatism followed. Which was then rebelled against in the 60s. There do appear to be cycles and changes of direction caused by great upheavals. The sad theme from such scholars is that war is inevitable. The problem is, is that we live in a world where Mutually Assured Destruction is possible, so we future upheavals could send us back to the stone age, if humanity survived! We do need some great leaders of peace to emerge around the world at the same time, a synchonicity which averts 'inevitable war. THE X'er in me hopes for the best but typically fears the worst.
Totally agree!
This turning has been completely taken over by billionaires, the WEF, and hard core anti-human psychopaths that want to enslave everyone.
Today 20% of youth identify as LGBTQ, During the Great Depression the Grandparents generation grew up without electricity and cars, , they had a great wealth of rugged knowledge .Now this kids stay home till they are 30, They don't know whether to squat to pee or not . Spend all their time looking at a screen.. meanwhile a mass invasion at the border... While the powers that be have a mastery over information the KGB & Gestapo could never dream of
The difference between now and 1700's is there is no where to go to leave home, the land is all occupied and .gov is letting in 100k illegal immigrants who don't speak English every month. This turning is going to be a total disaster.
That's funny the ones I meet speak their foreign language... AND ENGLISH. So motivated, they work to learn a second language. I wonder you? They work harder than you to be here, and you're privileged to be here and feel entitled. But you're just 'lucky.' You don't own this country. That's not what we stand for, OUR NATION OF IMMIGRANTS-not just white anglo Saxon European immigrants either. Stop blaming and creating an' outsider'. It's not Us And Them; those in power distract you from directing your anger towards those who are really responsible for the problems. Think about it.[it's those on power....]
A bit different comparing immigration today vs the past. The majority of immigration today is not controlled (illegal) and “we” provide services to immigrants at the expense of the citizens. That model is unsustainable and destructive.
@@TheTmac51the huge corporations want cheap desperate labour they can exploit. They don't care that it forces native workers to accept lower wages as this increases their profits. The pretence at trying to sort it out is just theatre. They have no real interest in sorting it out as it benefits them financially.
don't gaslight yourself into believing the US is some same haven of freedom or prosperity. It hasn't been that for decades. In every ranking be is freedom or happiness it ranks well outside the top 10. Do what your ancestors did and go where you're treated best.
@@tann_manhaha nomad capitalist tagline
For indigenous people in the Americas, the First Turning was in 1492
That makes no sense. Try again. 😊
I have both The Fourth Turning and Neil’s update on audio and I’m 82 so I guess I’ve lived through most of this 4th turning. Fascinating stuff. I also subscribe to the Trends Journal so I have seen what’s coming. Not going to be petty! Wake up America is all I can say!
I’m a millennial and my biggest fear is going down WITH my peers.
Adam the reason you don't see any leaders in this age is because our political parties have become so corrupted by special interests and the prime directive of "get reelected no matter what", that the cream no longer rises to the top in our system. Great leaders are out there, but they don't have a chance.
This guy makes a lot of sense. I have seen what he describes as coming because it is happening where I live. Just in the last few years, I've seen people coming together to form community bonds. I think as "individuals" we've never felt more alone and without purpose. A sense of belonging in a local community erases that feeling. I think American society will be learning this lesson very soon. Hard times are just around the corner. We're going to need each other to get through them. I call it "Tribalism" but Tribalism solves a problem yet can create new problems too.
Neil is fantastic-I’m glad you gave him the floor to really expound on this one. I’m low-key visually stalking what’s on his bookshelf
Neil is such an excellent guest to host and was in great shape when doing this interview. Thanks a lot!
I consider the Wealthion interviews with Neil Howe, the definitive ones.
I first learned of him on Dr. Chris Martensons Peak prosperity podcast channel. You guys are the best.
My favorite quote from Neil that is on all my emails -
"When history loses urgency, people tend to live at the expense of the future, despite their better judgment." Neil Howe and William Strauss, 'Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069.
A word salad.
@@USGrant21stNeil Howe triggers you, and how. Notes.
27:37 Ike lived to see America move from reality to fantasy. From the nation driving the industrial age forward to him writing his own personal sci-fi stories about future American moon missions that never happened and never will.
Why would you want to enter the leadership arena when social media just takes you and your entire family down?
Is it the we don't have any leaders that stand out to take us through the fourth turn or is it that those leaders represent a threat to the status quo and thus are stifled by the system to delay the fourth turn as long as possible?
I can think of a couple of standouts who are being stifled,to put it mildly.I won't mention their names but I think everyone can figure it out.
Definitely the latter. The status quo actually prefer to have the least competent and intelligent people in power as possible.
I thought it was interesting that Neil has a day job and completed his bestseller by researching and writing it outside work hours. That's motivation and purpose right there!
That just means he was doing a halfarsed job.
Mainly, it means that if you want to write about a topic, the masses have been programmed to have no interest in, you better have another source of income.
Fascinating. I could listen to more of this for days. The repercussions are so broad. And it causes so many things to make more sense.
To every season, turn, turn, turn, turn. 🎤 This song nails it! 😊
Big fan of Neil Howe's ideas. As a young gen X, I am still working with colleagues in their 80's. Some boomers are in good health and not ready to pass the mantle, at 48 you are the still the very capable junior. COVID measures exposed our ethics (I am pretty comfortable I kept my humanity), but I cannot say that is reflected across the board. I note with alarm, creeping tendances towards socialism as younger generations realise the wealth gap cannot be bridged. 1930's via 2020's (90 years).
You can easily see this. In my opinion we peaked in the late 90s, early 00s
Yea - i recon it was all downhill since the planes flew into the towers
Yes it’s obvious to anyone with brain cells but academics think they’ve discovered something
i read the 4th turning and liked it. the problem i have with the cycle theory is the degree to which its referred to as a circle and not a corkscrew. when it makes the 4th turning its in a new place. the direction of the spiral is more important than the spiral. I'd really like to talk about that more than the similarities between nomads like me and nomads like Mark Twain.
Well that really problem isn't it, Neil isn't very good at predicting the future. He missed the rise of Trump and then he missed again predicting the rise of President Joe Biden. One the most unlikely Presidents. He the only "Silent Generation of Americans" that has made into the White House. It really interesting to see how Neil struggles to see that President Joe Biden will be the "Gray Champion". I myself would not have guessed it either He is an unlikely Champion but then again Abraham Lincoln was country lawyer with mental health issues.
Totally agree 🙏🏻
I've found the Fibonacci crowd
As a millennial I consume a lot of these podcast. One thing that shocks me is the ease at which good jobs were had by previous generations. Fresh graduates getting into prestigious institutions without much of an interview. Today, if you interview for Software, Consulting, finance, or whatever it’s a gauntlet for which 3 months is needed to prepare.
This didn't happen òvernight.
Reagnomics suck for t he blue çoller crowd!
@@OldHeathen1963 so the jack Kemp study of 7 years is real..
Govt trades food for land in America 🤐🤐🤐
It was easy to get a full-time job with benefits in the 90s. Jobs were less demanded then, too. When you left the office, work was DONE for the day.
If you were born after the 80s you’ve never been paid a fair wage. We’re in the third decade of falling wages. Thank the Boomers, their demographics are so overwhelmingly they’ve suppressed every generation since
The boomers (older ones at least) with pensions and annual pay raises don’t understand the current job market.
It is such a treat...what a scholar, and what an interview 🙏 can't wait for part 2. Thanks Adam
I read your book Neil and overall it was great, but you somehow got more authoritarian since your last book, what happened? After seeing government used for nothing but evil our entire lives why would you expect a sudden improvement? Do you think the states were happy to submit to a central federal government?
I can't take this very seriously. How many latch onto this as it just happens to be an explanation? We all love patterns and people that offer them. It also relies on US history that is hardly long and deep.
My sentiments exactly, the repeating of generational cycles, seems to be stretching to find an orderly explanation and rationalization, of an order out of chaos. The real difference between generations is the individual familys socio-economic status. The rich get richer and poor get poorer. The haves and the have nots. Lumping people into a huge demographic category, then extrapolating broad unifying commonalities, smacks of psuedo scientific qwakery
Neil Howe is a genius. An author extraordinaire!
Story telling doesn't take a genius. Don't confuse science fiction with science.
Neil Howe is able to distill an entire generation, which of course is comprised of individuals with different desires, capabilities etc, into the essential attributes that define that generational cohort relative to others. To do that requires uncommon intelligence, confidence in his application of Schumpeter’s idea of creative destruction, and a bold eclecticism
unafraid to borrow and integrate into his own theme.
Adam is a great interviewer...In terms of forecasting, Neil Howe is generalization. You want a true "forecaster", you turn to Martin Armstrong of ArmstrongEconomics, formerly Princeton Economics!!! Academics across the spectrum makes general "opinions" but under closer observation, they are often more wrong than right.
Born in 1990, I'm peak millenial. When he said "the worst fear of millenials is going down without your peers," Idk why, but something caught in the back of my throat... So I think he's on to something there.
Just because Pain is Coming….does NOT mean Restoration is next. Pain can continue for far longer than society can survive
Pain can be the new normal, and the WEF, the Aristocracy, and many other players like the Club of Rome want a new era of long duration, unprecedented pain for the world.
This topic is one of my all time favorite talks. MORE OF THIS!!!!!!!
This is such a great discussion but hard for some next gens to listen to because, after all, we all feel indestructible when we're younger.😊 Its amazing to see the wealth distribution in the next generations. But history shows a repeat of cycles that you just can't discount no matter how we think we're different and learned from the past. Thanks for sharing in the most positive manner possible 😊 And we hear you loud and clear😅
I was a 'next gen' when I encountered "Generations" way back in '92, while in college. It was a sobering wake-up. It's a massive book, and difficult for even advanced, disciplined minds to get through... but you are absolutely correct: it is necessary that the young get this information, and quickly.
I certainly did not feel indestructible after learning about the cycles of history.
This guy paints in brush strokes that are too broad. His descriptions of the generations are excessive oversimplifications. I know so many people (myself included) that don't conform to his artificial archetypes. That isn't to say it isn't an interesting and entertaining discussion, but I think it's more theory than reality in a lot of ways.
That's why he is writing popular books and not scientific articles. Science is tough and is difficult to make a living from.
I agree, Howe isn't very good at predicting the future. He missed the rise of Trump and Biden. I watched very closely his lectures and I can say that he not very good at predicting political trends in America. Now he talks about Civil War. But that's nonsense, not when have the major of men in America in their 60's going into their 70's. Yea, sorry but there isn't going be a Civil War with that kind of demographics.
Well. I think that's all you could hope to do.
Its the big masses that are important in this case. Not individuals.
I think major lessons get lost by the forth generation. We've forgotten all of the major lessons of WW2 and the great depression. The US has degenerated politically and socially to a time like the 1920's when we had yellow journalism, asset price bubbles, decaying moral fabric of society, and gigantic monopolies controlling everything.
Many people think we need a new federalism, traditional states and far left states. More power to state governments and much less for the Federal Government. States like California and New York can have far left policies and states like Florida and Texas can have more conservative policies. People can move to states with policies they agree with if they don't live there. Compromise doesn't seem possible. The great sort is happening. Will it be the fourth turning or the great sorting?
No there is going to be greater compromise. We are already seeing it in the congress. That why you keep projection your Generation X nonsense but that not what happening right now.
Let's just have like 4 or 5 different super states within the country
If it is, get ready for a war, because we all hate one another. Before you make some ass backwards "no we don't argument", we really do. The Left v Right divide is so severe that we can no longer stand one another to even live in proximity. That will lead to war.
Democracy is cringe. Its two wolves and a sheep voting for dinner. Hamilton's federalist faction won. The conservative nationalists created the federal government and provided a few concessions (bill of rights) for Jefferson's classical liberal faction. Hamilton was inherently wrong and we are dealing with the ever growing monster that it created - the cathedral. The state and the apparatuses it de facto controls (big tech, pharma, mainstream media, big oil, banks, academia, military industrial complex). The cathedral only functions to justify its own importance and continual growth.
You cannot divide by state. Miami is blue. Austin and Houston and Dallas are deep blue. A national divorce or balkanization doesn't fix the contentious urban/rural divide. The left's ideology necessitates totalizing control. The right has some of the same tendencies but it at least pays lip service to liberty. The state needs to be radically altered so that rather than continue to grow and move ever leftward it devolves and allows small groups to govern themselves as they see fit. The problem is this would mean complete defeat to left, the right loses they still enjoy the privileges of wielding violence to force compliance on their enemies from time to time and our government system as it exists is designed to do exactly the opposite.
Saved this one till later to give it my full attention. Excellent thinker Adam......thanks for the incredible diversity of ideas and people you present on your channel 👏
After watching Neil's video, I immediately bought his books! Thanks for posting!
Im just finishing fourth turning, superb
The world economic forum seems to be taking advantage of this to establish total control with that great rest thing. Their timeline even seems to match.
I predict that stock market will drop like a rock, I predict that the stock market will go to the moon, I predict the end of the world, and I will be right on all counts, but without timing my predictions are worthless.
Now that so much more has happened since this interview it would be fantastic to have a re do 😊
Fascinating.
I really enjoyed that!!
I love your guests, Neil is fantastic!
Thank you guys!
Ive always wondered, since I read generations, whether the Elite would use your insight into fourth turnings to take advantage of the disruption.
Of course they do.
They have plenty of time to read and digest esoteric theories. More than we do. And infinitely more resources.
Interesting discussion. Would like to dig deeper into the conflict between this idea of 4th turning and the current desire (at the same time) to spend a fortune on climate policies. For Climate crises policy, humanity has a colossal price to pay. I can't see how these two concepts can both be correct? 4th Turning is about reduction of everything unnecessary and the expansion of 'things' (things take energy to make/obtain). Climate policy calls for vast, incomprehensible expansion of energy consumption over and above 'normal' life living.
Going to be an interesting next decade. The decade that I have to be ready for my retirement at 65. No pressure then...
Thank you Adam. Superb.
Neil thank you for all the work you have done over the years on this very important topic.
"Generations" was a masterfully written and researched book.
Adam this is a just over the top incredible interview. Thanks
Interesting perspective. Neil really needs to get a decent mic though
You sold another book to me. Such a great interview
Excellent interview Adam
48:13 US industries and companies with NO SENSE of National community….
These businesses were ALLOWED to overshadow the very same country which provided the framework for them to even EXIST…. what have those same “No Nation” Corporations influencing elected politicians and law-making done to most US citizens and future generations of the country?
Great guest/interview/topic 💪👍
Well no you have to understand that you not seeing what we doing right now.
First let's not be gaslit into believing the USA is some haven of freedom or prosperity relative to other countries. There are dozens of nations who score higher in economic freedom, personal freedom, happiness, income, standard of living, and taxation. Decades ago American industries were hollowed out because corporations realized they were treated better in other countries. Many citizens especially with remote work are now realizing the same. As birth rates plummet and the societal fabric tears and the US nears closer to insolvency state pressures will only cause citizens and businesses more pain. My ancestors fled their homes for a better life in the US and I will do the same in reverse.
I think the hopeful aspect of these ideas are quite encouraging. I have to say that when I ponder the fact that so many nations possess nuclear weapons, I am less comforted by Neil's assumption that the conclusion of the Fourth Turning will set the stage for a positive rebirth. On another note, I will say that I had to laugh out loud when Neil quoted Henry Kissinger's observation of the lack of quality leadership today, given he worked so closely with Richard Nixon for a major part of career. :)
And landing on the moon…😂. Hilarious
Henry started the growth of China and Russia to balance the world to reduce the individual, sovereignty,so he represents a modern German ten thousand year reich ,so his plan is just like George Orwell was telegraghing from his sources...the world as we now see on the world stage...
As if Henry 'kill everything that moves' Kissinger is anything but a cruel warmonger who has brought enormous suffering to the world.
@@marianhunt8899he's part of a system 🤐🤐🤐
@@marianhunt8899 Oh no, he got the Nobel Prize for the Paris Peace Accords.... At least Le Duc Tho had the decency to return his.
Awesome chat, thank you for this! I've started to use a term for people refusing to move forward....
Belligerent Stagnation.
The new leaders are Gavin Newsom in California and Ron DeSantis in Florida. The contrast in their policies is huge. Florida is prospering and California is heading over a fiscal cliff. In California, the wealthy are leaving in droves and being replaced with illegal immigrants. In Florida, the wealthy are moving there in droves. High taxes, the far left culture, and over regulation will kill California's economy eventually. California is also being overrun with homeless people in the largest cities. If the courts allow a return to vagrancy laws, California may become an even bigger magnet for the homeless. Another nail in California's coffin. Traditional states will will restore order in their cities if allowed to do so with regard to homeless people living on the streets. California will do nothing and attract even more homeless people. Much of Hollywood and Silicon Valley has already left. Adam, wise up and join your friend Lance in Texas, you work hard, keep what you earn.
You've leveled up Adam! Thank you.
Very excellent conversation!
Social media , AI etc , game changers challenging prior demographic conclusions or predictions. WE are out of walls.
During a fourth turning just how bad is good...??? in the long run - Is a Nuclear War just the right amount of social adjustment ??? Because we just might find out this time we go too far - So understanding a fourth turning can help, but will we look back on this one and say I am glad I went through it !!! economic collapse, nuclear war, and political collapse, famine, pole shift and loss of the world wide electrical grid...take your pick. If you aren't prepping by now good luck you will not get through this fourth turning ( they are not always the same).
Brilliant thinking. Actionable. Thank you!!
Very interested. Thanks!
Love the content but the interviewees should record the audio locally and share it with you. It’s hard to enjoy when the audio quality is bad.
I dont see how anyone can look at the world situation and not realizing something big is coming.
And not for the better.
Entertaining guest
Well he predicting the crisis. Right the 4th Turning has war, but American guess it would be another Civil War not a war in Ukraine that could possible lead to a nuclear war. He did predict a pandemic may hit and one did this forced certain country to work with each other to helps stop the spread of the virus. There are more crisis to come.
55:00 the inner neocon shows itself. The American civil war was the nail in the coffin for the original ideals of the Founders.
Great questions Adam!
Will never get tired of Neil. When you listen to him, you understand why history is cyclical. It's very important that history needs to be learned again. Great job!
Great interview Adam. One point that kept coming up was creative destruction. I get the theoretical point but the Revolutionary, Civil and World War2 (and current WW3) are the last things I think of for creative destruction
Only creative for those who profit from all the destruction, not the great numbers who suffer because of it such as job losses, deaths in the wars and shattered economies.
Formerly rich stock brokers jumping out of windows does has a way of leveling the playing field. I don't see many of today's high-fliers with any better coping skills for a melt-down than those window jumpers.
We can hope.
That was a very interesting segment. Let's not forget our youngest generations and maybe as a society it is time for all generations to work together at what they are good and perhaps that might also make society better and fairer.
Lol we all know that won't happen until Boomers get out of power...
Lol the Boomers will eat everything until they are gone
Thank you for the great interview
Positive change usually happens through circumstance rather than virtue.
Awesome 👏 Brilliant interview 🙌
When is the book coming out on audible?
I had a startling dream, we were put under capital control we were only allowed to withdraw $25 cash per week from ATM’s or banks we were to use credit or debit for all purchases, they used the cards to limit the amount of auto fuel and meat you could buy, using cards for crypto precious metals and guns and ammo purchases were denied, if you had cash there was no restrictions on amount or what you could buy, most folks had very little cash because cards were used so much in the past no one really needed or had cash
Well in Europe just after the 2008 crash the Europeans just reached into your bank account and took you money. Many people woke up and found a lot of their money missing. That's why all the rich people of Europe said "f**k this" and moved their money to American banks.
If you don't want that to happen you need to vote for greater regulation of big corporation. Because that what will happen if allow them to much control.
@@Madame702 More regulation?? Have you heard of the term regulatory capture? if not I suggest you do some reading.
@@tann_man Ok Millennial time take you school. American's Greatest generation that beat the Nazi and Imperial Japan created the Middle Class. Why because at the turn of the 20th century 95% of all Americans were poor. Regulations is what help to create a "Middle Class" in America. The Government sets rules and taxation so that you can have a middle class life style. Normal Capitalism is where 95% people are poor and the 1% is rich. So Charles Dickens wrote about it. You would be living like "tiny Tim" if weren't for good regulations and taxation.
@@tann_man You see what you don't understand, your lifestyle doesn't exist in most countries. I have lived both Russia and China. The poverty there is heartbreaking. There schools are a joke there is no public parks, there are no events or no public libraries.
Wealthion keeps our sanity in check 😬
I ask myself all the time ,"are they pushing for a civil war"...glad I'm not alone!
Me too. I have never seen division being stoked so hard. Intentional
I'd argue we are already in one, but its not being fought like a traditional war. Its information based.
@@CleverGirlLP yeah, and its the ruling class against all the people but they've engineered it to turn the people against each other rather than them. Brilliant.
The deep state wants a civil war.
My dad would always lecture me when i had complaints. "Your grandfather lied about his age to go on a boat and watch ppl die."
My grandfather worked in the engine room of a fishing boat when he was 15 and My great Grandfather( otherside) died in a loading accident on a sailing ship!
@@secretsquirrel6718 at least they were able to be parents and grandparents. Young men today are more lonely and sexless than any time in American history.
Oh man as a millennial, he not wrong about taking risk. If I saw 2023 being like it is now or any time in the future back in 2008, why would I take big risks? We are going to be on the same ship sooner or later to a degree.
Soooo, we skip WWI, Korea and Vietnam?
While I do not like the current trend (the riches getting richer, the poors getting poorer, etc.), I still prefer it to a nuclear war.
He nailed us Gen X'ers nearly to the T. I slightly disagree with the low self-esteem comment. I can't tell you how many times in life I came to one of those pivotal moments, and things were way different (and way more difficult) than what boomers told me it would be. Over time I realized that the world had changed and every generation pays for the spoils of the previous. Indeed I get great satisfaction seeing Millennials rightfully blame boomers for the mess they made with all their sweetheart deals.
The Grand Adventure On Time. GENIUS.
Neil is infinitely interesting. Fantastic book
I agree that the gov will need to inflate most of their debt away, but didn't bond yields go down in the period between 1920 and 1950, in the previous 4th turning?
I think Lyn Alden said it Was caped. Yield curve control
@@martinmarier4495 Does that mean the gov is going to force rates down, and force bond prices up? Edit: (I'm kind of pondering if I want to buy bonds or short them)
I looked and saw something like a lion being roused, roaring out of the forest. I heard how he spoke in a human voice and said to the eagle, 38 “Listen, you, and I will speak to you. The Most High says to you, 39 ‘Aren’t you the last of the four beasts that I made to rule in my world so that I might bring about the end of my times through them? 40 You, the fourth that has come, conquered all the beasts that came before you, ruling over the world with much terror and over the whole world with harsh oppression. You have lived in the world with deceit for so long! 41 You judged the earth, but not in truth, 42 for you have oppressed the meek and injured those who caused no unrest. You hated those who spoke the truth and loved liars. You destroyed the dwellings of those who bore fruit and tore down the walls of those who had done you no harm. 43 Your insolence has ascended to the Most High and your pride to the mighty one. 44 The Most High has reviewed his times. Look! They are finished, and his ages are complete. 45 Therefore, eagle, you must utterly vanish, you and your terrifying wings, your dreadful little wings and your evil heads, and your dreadful talons and all your worthless body. 46 Then the whole earth will be refreshed and restored, set free from your violence, and will hope for the judgment and mercy of him who made it.’”
Good interview, but the audio sounds like it was recorded underwater.
Given the very interesting subject it's a shame that the transmission of his voice is well below the content. Please pay attention to this aspect especially for long interviews like this.
Brilliant interview well done
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank ❤
Great interview. I’m looking forward to the second half.
GREAT interview Adam! Podcast excellence!!!
Awesome interview! I love Neil’s new book. Thank you!
There's a simpler saying that applies to our current time:
"Easy times create weak men"
We need to flush out the trash. People have no idea what hard times look like. Time to give it to them.
Very interesting book. I am currently reading the book now. Appreciate his perspective and research. The unfortunate thing is that it is definitely from an Anglo history perspective. It doesn't really discuss the culture perspective as to how these turning has affected people of color (African, Hispanic, Asian Americans). The Civil War meant definitely something different to those who were enslaved and their ancestors. He talks about how the Civil War brought equality and community. That is definitely an Anglo perspective. The former slaves and their ancestors have continued to catch he'll. The sentiment about African Americans didn't change the minds of the South or the North! The Civil War meant something entirely different to Anglo Americans than it has to African Americans.
Until we have a work of literature to combine the 4th turning of the Anglo-American perspective into a community that includes all those who inhabit this world (all cultures), we are not going to solve the issues.
Great work, and I hope we can have more conversations of an inclusive society and world.
The first turning sounds great. If your not one of the near 100,000,000 souls that partes this earth while things got sorted out like the last fourth turning. So this fourth turning is hard to ignore by just looking forward to 2035.
The boomer generation is extremely entitled as a whole. That's not to say that all boomers are anything, but the level of unearned entitlement is very high. When you're born on 3rd base it's easy to believe you're a star.
Great choice of guest! He's always been slightly ahead of the curve, and it will be interesting to see how close to the truth he ends up being.
Why don't you tell your guest to adjust his camera so that we can see his face fully? Pay attention, you are the host.
Thanks
Love the discussion about generations. Do people born on the cusp of a generation switch exhibit characteristics of both generations? I was born in 1985, but I don't feel like all of the millennial characteristics apply to me.
You are an early Millennial so don't sweat it. But you believe there is a world of different between you and Generation X.
I was born in 84, I think I align more with X than millennials.
@@abcdjhffkuggf No you are not. Generation X believe they live like Mad Max the Road Warrior in wasteland desert surrounded by wreck of world. They believe they are alone in world. They believe they must take and steal from others to get ahead. They believe that there is not enough resources on earth and they must be better than everyone else just to survive.
@@abcdjhffkuggf Millennials Generation goes out into the desert waste land turn it into oasis. They practice permaculture putting ponds of water they emulate what the American beavers would do flooding the land with life giving water. They create flood planes where wild ducks and geese live and deer flock and play. They take their cows manage then like the herd of Bison did before the whiteman came to America, the green grasses bloom and flowers exploded in riot of color. They talk of putting the carbon back into the earth and grow all kinds of vegetables and plants in their desert farm.
I was born in '79 and I and my classmates noticed way back when we were teens that our younger siblings and cousins were being raised in an entirely different manner from ourselves. It was shocking to us how much things had changed just a few years after we were born. So, for me, I see a very hard line separating me, the last of the Gen Xers, from Millennials.
However, generations differ by country, of course. I know someone who is a couple of years younger than me who is much more similar to me than anyone else I know born in 1982, but he was born and raised in Poland under and in the shadow of communism. So his life experiences are very different from that of Millennials born at the same time. He grew up with the country still in hard times, the way it was for those of us born during the late 60's and throughout the 70's when there was a lot of social and economic upheaval--not like Millennials, who grew up when times were getting increasingly better and everyone was growing hopeful again.
Of course, individual people will vary as well. It will depend a lot on how and where you were raised, but it can also depend on your personality. My grandmother dubbed me an "old soul" from a young age, and people like me will always tend to lean back towards prior generations, rather than towards their current generation. My late husband was 17.5 years older than me and he liked to joke that we grew up watching the same shows on T.V.: he watched them on primetime and I watched them on Nick at Nite. When were were early in our dating, we were driving somewhere with the radio on and he suddenly asked me, "Who is that singer?" I replied, "Aretha Franklin." He smiled a little and said, "Yes." Then I added, "Hey, Nineteen, I do know who the Queen of Soul is." He laughed really loudly and said that was EXACTLY what he had been thinking about when he had asked me. So, even as someone in the last year of Gen X, I leaned back more towards the late Boomers in a lot of ways.
I miss Strauss so much. He was the great mind of the theory.
Yeah, Howe has a tendency to me to come off as a two-bit neocon sometimes
Hindsight is 20/20. You can certainly look at historical events and draw some conclusions based on it. The future is unwritten. I take his book as just an educated scientific wild ass guess. Really do not care what number is assigned to a societal change but the upcoming one will be one that involves the entire world population rather than regional or sovereign nations themselves.
The civil war question is being a Monday morning QB. What if? What if leaders keep their word? The effort to resist entropy is monumental. Why are so many Americans prepping now? Waiting for the Ship to hit the sand.