How to Win with Game Theory & Defeat Smart Opponents | Kevin Zollman | Big Think
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- Опубліковано 6 січ 2018
- How to Win with Game Theory & Defeat Smart Opponents
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If you want to win, it's best to think crazy like a fox. Nobody knows this better than Kevin Zollman - a nationally recognized expert in game theory and associate professor of philosophy at Carnegie Mellon University - who suggests that perhaps the best way to get ahead of your opponent is to think completely counterintuitively. This works especially well in poker, where breaking the flow (say, bluffing when you have nothing) can keep your foes from guessing your next move. A little dose of crazy goes a long way. Zollman is the co-author of The Game Theorist's Guide to Parenting: How the Science of Strategic Thinking Can Help You Deal with the Toughest Negotiators You Know - Your Kids, with Paul Raeburn.
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KEVIN ZOLLMAN:
Kevin Zollman is an associate professor in the Department of Philosophy at Carnegie Mellon University. He is also an associate fellow at the Center for Philosophy of Science at the University of Pittsburgh, visiting professor at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy (part of Ludwig-Maximilians Universität), and an associate editor of the journal Philosophy of Science. His research focuses on game theory, agent based modeling, and the philosophy of science. Zollman is the co-author of The Game Theorist's Guide to Parenting: How the Science of Strategic Thinking Can Help You Deal with the Toughest Negotiators You Know--Your Kids, with Paul Raeburn.
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TRANSCRIPT:
Kevin Zollman: When one is confronted with a situation that’s truly zero sum where one party is going to win and the other party is going to lose, a situation is very complicated and sometimes difficult to analyze. Game theory spent much of its early days analyzing zero sum games and trying to figure out what’s the best strategy.
It’s a little complicated because it depends critically on how sophisticated you think the other party is.
If they’re very, very, very smart, the chances that you’re going to outthink them are not very high. In such a situation often times the best strategy is very counterintuitive, because it involves flipping a coin or rolling a dice or doing something random.
Professional poker players know this and they often times advocate in poker strategy books that one should occasionally do something completely counterintuitive in order to keep your opponents off guard. And in fact game theory has shown that this is good, solid, mathematically well-founded advice, that often times what you want to do is engage in a kind of random strategy-game theorists call this a mixed strategy-in order to make sure that your opponent can’t get the leg up on you.
The nice thing about these random strategies is that they ensure that your opponent can never outthink you. So even if you think your opponent is a little smarter than you or a little bit more sophisticated than you or has a little bit more information than you do, the fact that you’re being random to a certain extent means that they can’t outthink you.
Now how do you figure out how to be random? I’m not saying just flip a coin all the time or whatever. What game theorists have figured out is that in zero sum games the best strategy to pursue when you’re against a sophisticated opponent is to adopt the strategy which minimizes your maximum loss. This is sometimes called the mini max strategy.
So the idea is you think: what’s the worst case scenario for me? What could my opponent do that would make me worse off?
And then you figure out what’s the best strategy against that, so you’re minimizing your maximum loss.
Game theorists prove that if you use this way of thinking, minimizing your maximum loss, you ensure that no matter how sophisticated your opponent is you’ve guarded against the worst case scenario. And not only that but in zero sum games you’ve done the best you can possibly do.
That’s not true in games that aren’t zero sum, so one has to be very careful about employing this strategy, because if you’re mistaken and you’re not in a zero sum interaction you could end up ruining it for everybody. But if you’re truly in a zero sum interaction this is one of the strategies that you can use.
Now suppose that you’re dealing with an opponent who’s not sophisticated, you are smarter than they are, there it depends very much on: how smart are they? Can you outthink them? And what’s the individual interaction that you’re engaged in?
So...
For the full transcript, check out bigthink.com/videos/kevin-zol...
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I somewhat disagree. If your opponent is much more sophisticated and your position is weaker you should try to create complications. In any game that allows you to muddy the waters, the better thinker will still make more correct decisions over the long run but it will also create more opportunities for your opponent to either make a huge error that allows you to turn the game or to shock them into a kmore passive stance allowing for a chance to i
Starts with being skeptical of above claim.
“If I don’t know what I’m doing, the enemy won’t know either!”
That's why button spam can work in a fighting game.
😂😂😂
Works 50% of the time, every time
But, ALSO, you don't need to show that you don't know. Keep them thinking you are the more sophisticated one.
Or will learn that you're lost.
The art of war is the art of deception. I'm a student of history and spend a lot of my time reading about the great generals of the ages. This is one thing they all have in common. When placed in a situation where defeat looks inevitable, do something crazy and unexpected. It's been said by many people through history that a good general is lucky. After watching this and thinking about the things I just said, I don't think they meant just naturally "lucky" but instead they were willing to take calculated chances when they needed to.
Yes, that's why Erwin Smith won
This makes me want to reread Conquest of Gaul, Caesar himself sometimes seemed surprised at how 'lucky' he'd been when vastly outnumbered
Can you please suggest me ...where from i should start reading about history....any books or anything
@@duffmangames6997 I definitely had Caesar in mind! One thing about Caesar is that he would place himself in these situations that looked unwinnable and I think, at least some of the time, he didn't initially have a complete path to victory planned. He trusted in his abilities to carry him through. You see it in Gaul and in Britain. You see it during the civil war when he's in Greece, Spain, North Africa and Egypt.
@@Stickyrolls123 Yeah I remember being amazed (at 16) that he would personally go on the front lines and sometimes that would make the battle. Anyways it's nice to have a response to a comment where someone isn't trying to rip my head off! Have a good one:)
Ferengi rule of acquisition 76:
Every once in a while, declare peace. It confuses the hell out of your enemies.
I was just about to comment the same thing.
But, what if you know that they know?
+Allen Linnen, Jr. almost like infinite recursion.
It's been helping North Korea a lot.
worked in Mars Attacks. gosh it's ruthless
Also: if you repeat your overpowered tactic in game, your enemy will learn from you and probably turn the tables. This is why you should do something "random" once in a while, so they lose their concentration on your tactic
In fact, this is how Napoleon eventually lost. His opponents figured that they simply need to imitate the French system of war. Which prompted Napoleon to say that "one needs to change fighting style every 10 years". To keep your opponents always on the "wrong foot".
Haha this one is so sneaky!
Give up switch advantage in Pokémon go periodically. Gotcha
I believe this is called "conditioning"
This applies in medieval wars to the 1700s and the modern games like football and basketball and you need to be versatile and think two-way to have a leverage of whatever may happen
I once beat a guy 10 times in a row at rock paper scissors. I was on fire, but the 6th win I was basically just reading his mind, so confident. It has never happened again, I've tried but I'm just normal, but that dude is out there and he carries his defeat with him
There's an ai on a website out there on the internet that's supposed to beat you at rock paper scissors by reading your mind. I managed to gain 50+ wins because who better to read my mind than me?
I have experienced that as well. The feeling of overwhelming confident, like everything is on a chess table and you know exactly every move and possibility
I tried to search for it and found something called 'flow state' but not exactly. And same as u, I couldnt experience it again since then. Hope to get your reply because you comment has been 3 years already lmao
@@HaiNguyen-fx2tx I have this ability. I have done things highly improbable on the first try. The trick is to focus but not care at the same time. It's like a Jedi state of mind.
Reminds me of when I figured out the damn cracker barrel puzzle thing. It's like I went into hyper focus thinking about the logistics of how to keep jumping each stick and not leave one out. Sounds dumb but I managed to figure out the game and developed my method with it. That's just one example tho. I feel like if I ever truly cared enough I could enter that type of state. Same has happened to me in sport games like with ultimate and basketball. Just hyper focused and aware. Not exactly the best athlete but superior strategizing and thinking let me out manuver people.
It’s like how your first half court shot is closer than the third shot
I wrestled in high school and I noticed that when I would wrestle someone who wasn’t a wrestler it felt very weird and awkward. I could always win but sometimes I would go for a move and be met with a knee or elbow in my face that shouldn’t be there. Or I would execute a move with much more force than was needed because my opponent wasn’t resisting it at all and I would lose my balance. I imagine this is an example of what this video is explaining.
So basically, don't let your opponent get the hard reads.
Or if you are defending, get a hard read and keep your opponent from using their strongest moves.
At my poker game, the regulars were very good players. You could read them and it would be accurate and most of the time they did what was best for them, so you could figure out where they are. Sometimes we had a beginner come and play. You couldn't read them because they didn't know where they were, and you couldn't interpret their actions to figure out where they were because they didn't know the "right" (game theory) thing to do. They frequently won. The second time they played, they had experienced getting bushwhacked, began to understand, and then they did very badly.
Another example is WW2 u-boats. They would submerge when a destroyer detected them. At first, they would turn in the direction that made them hardest to detect. The allies figured this out, then the Germans started turning to the easiest place to detect. Again, the allies figured this out.
The problem with "tricky" play is that doing something unexpected is by nature the sub-optimal thing to do. Eventually it becomes rock/paper/scissors.
Your explanation of poker is the reason I wiped the floor with the group I played with my first time. No idea how I did it.
I remember in my first poker game, I owned everybody. You have a correct observation
Beginner's luck.
In fighting games it breaks down to attack/block/grab. Attack is beat by block, block is beat by grab, and grab is beat by attack. They can put them in a vortex where youre constantly reading them play after play. Its actually hard for a human to be truely random
poker is not that simple my friend he probably just ran good that specific session
Being a bit unpredictable: when I was a kid on a baseball team, we were playing opponents who had a really good pitcher; two balls, two strikes on me, I decide to SWING at the next pitch, regardless--- it was a high pitch, that was going to be a ball, BUT, I swung anyways. It caught them off guard, and was a nice line drive. We got a double out of it.
I do this in table tennis. If the score is tight near the end, I will throw in serve completely different from what I've been doing all game. Works like a charm.
I flip a coin for everything in life. Can't let god catch on to my strategy.
No country for old men.
Who do you think is deciding which way the coin lands?
Shouldn't you be in Arkham?
@@davids3539 Only if he has a law degree.
Shelby salutes you
Min-max strategy seems like little finger's philosophy in game of thrones
Alberto Huerta That's basically how you play chess.
Its funny how I use it in a game of chess without even know (first time hearing about it), but my uncle always win.
That fucked up man😭
And its also an accountability criteria:
From a situation with 2 posibilities, think and prepare for the worst case scenario. The idea is make the economic and financial arrangementes to pass trought it the best way u can handle.
I know, right!
That's what meta is in games. The best strategy is the best until either others start using it, or others start countering it. Thus, the meta always changes to be whatever counters the best currently available strategy.
Random things to keep an opponent off guard might work sometimes, but if your opponent is good enough your lack of planning will only show you as disorganized and ultimately might lead to your defeat. Depends on the type of game I guess really, doing a bunch of random moves in chess might help but in my experience you win more games by thinking as many steps ahead as you can.
I think he is talking about poker specifically. And I agree, game theory as I understand it doesn't have a rigid steps to follow, I think it is about being aware and analytical on the current situation/dilemma you are in before making a decision.
Chess is not a zero sum game, you can draw
@@ashyles0110 I don't think that makes chess not a zero sum game. But regardless, this video wouldn't apply to chess since it's a perfect information game with alternating turns. If it had fog of war or it were a completely different game where you and your opponent chose your next move at the same time, then the optimal strategy against a sufficiently sophisticated opponent would include randomness.
@@tylanader9988 you are correct, chess is a zero sum game. zero sum games are representation of a situation in which an advantage that is won by one of two sides is lost by the other. basically both players can't win or lose at the same time. you are also correct about being perfect information but there has been some unorthodox plays in chess that have lead to surprising victories, I wouldn't call those random but they might have seem un-optimal at the time of play.
@@damp2269 Right. In chess sometimes moves that are not objectively the best can work, especially if the correct response is hard to find and there are many plausible-looking-but-actually-bad responses. Basically those move bank on your opponent not having enough time and/or skill to work out the best counter play. In the long run, that sort of approach only works if you have a very good sense of your opponents' skills.
A wise man said.. my favorite style is no style... be like a water... be dangerous everywhere.. have no obvious strength or obvious weakness.. therefore your opponents have no way to figure how to beat u.
This is exactly how the Joker defeats Batman!
When you are good at something, don't do it for free
-------
A True Legend
Actually he never defeated Batman! Joker always tries to mess up with Bruce's mind but ends up failing miserably.
@@jigsawsaw455 hahaha it seems you haven’t read A Death In the Family
@@jigsawsaw455 you don't read the comics, I'm guessing. Check out the Batman who Laughs.
Though, the winner is always the writer. If he wants the Joker to defeat even Darkseid, he could definitely do it. Lol
"The craziest one in the room, runs the room"
Nah, they get outed for a real leader.
@@energy_waves unfortunately, not where I work.
@@josephz803 Well that may be an unfortunate side effect of the workplace being sort of unnatural, where the quality of someones character and their leadership ability doesn't neccesarily lead to them being chosen as the "leader".
As a kid I used to beat my Grandfather at Chess by making crazy moves. He always thought he had missed some play and it threw him off.
I am by no means a chess master, yet generally that is a fault of strategy.
If one relies upon tactics and trades entirely, they will sometimes easily miss a structural play. (Pin, tempo, check, checkmate chase)
So basically they miss their own opportunity to win, and they miss the tempo gain of another.
Developement vs tactics/gambits.
My god, Naruto is a tactical genius...
Exactly!
Damn. Maybe we were the fools all along fool ya fool!
I like to do "dumb" moves in chess all the time. Totally throws off the opponent.
this works even better when the opponent thinks he is the sophisticated one
Nope this doesnt work in chess, random moves against decent players end up in ruin
@@t.oguzunluerler4804 yeah
These are called blunders 😉
Me too. I like to gambit my king.
Full contact fighting is very much this way. The longer a bout goes on your opponent most always falls into a predictable pattern. It’s this pattern when detected is when you exploit him. The thing to keep conscientious is not to fall into a pattern for him to detect. This means changing things up to “keep him off balance”.
Fantastic video, thank you!
This applies to most games where you face someone else and is really useful. Fighting games are practically entirely based off this concept and it's great.
When I was in 5th grade, I discovered that people tended to try and predict what I would use, and usually predicted paper, so I almost always won with scissors. On the second go they would usually use rock to best my scissors, so I almost always won 2/3. It was great.
Did u get a Nobel?
I think this works well with relationships specifically the ones in which you could never fully trust the other person(for example business or some friendships).
I never thought about that. Mini max would be great in sketchy relationships although it wouldnt be a zero sum game unless the other person has an ulterior motive that goes completely against your ideal of winning. Like one of you murdered the maid and you're both tryna prove if it was the other person.
No, that's the exception he mentioned. This is about zero sum, in business the best outcome is win win. In such situations min max is opportunistic behaviour, which will erase potential gains.
Yeah, well, that's just, like, your theory, man.
minciNashu The dude abides man
As much as I love the Big Lebowski we don't need to encourage this flawed thinking about what a scientific theory actually is amongst laypeople that won't get the reference.
@@jseanbrooks1 Yeah, well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
This was a great way to breakdown mixed nash equilibria, I wish my prof said this instead of talking about the fixed point theorem
A'ight time's up let's do this LEEROYYYY JENKINSSS
I realized this concept aswell, like in the anime Death Note: one is smart, but the other knows how smart is the other and wants to outsmart him, but that guy knew he would try to outsmart him so he had a backup plan, but the guy prepared a plan to counter a possible backup plan and this goes to the infinite...
The solution? Randmoness. He can't outsmart you because he doesn't know how you could possibly choice, so he will also choose the randomness.
So randomly, one of the 2 outsmarters will win, decided by destiny.
Wow this is completely true. I’m above average at shooter games so I’ll often get put in better lobbys (no i’m not claiming to be super good, just better than average but worse than skilled players). However, to have fun I always like to do random, stupid strategies and surprisingly they work more than they should because players at my level are expecting people to play with meta-strategies
loved the term "mini max"
See, I mostly play badly but then do something smart. That confuses them too and makes my victory hurt them even more.
I play dumb, like a fox.
This only works on opponents inferior to you though
Mosquitos have mastered this technique so well, they don't even need to evolve to thrive.
Yes. They simulate cloaking technology by flying over dark furniture, then emerge once you give up 🦟
seeing the fox at the beginning reminded me of firefox...
see, u knew how to think random even before starting the video. smartt😅
I’ve never heard of game theory before this but I already use the strategy he described
its Eckert tolle without the peach fuzz
Lolol
i like this explanation.... alot of people make it sound super complicated when they explain it!!
But that’s just a theory, a Game Theory!
It is a scientific theory which is different from your personal opinions or guesses that you call theories.
@@jseanbrooks1 I don't think you get the joke
Someone was gonna say XD .
@@jseanbrooks1 that's the tagline for a yt show titled game theory.
Great advice, i shall use this strategy against Sora and Shiro
this is great advice for fighting games
I always assume that my opponent is going to assume that my actions are based on assumptions that I am making counter to my best assumptions of his assumptions. I call it the “Inspector Clouseau” gambit.
Thanks
This is basically the essences of trading, minimize your risk as much as possible. This is great!
I beat my friend's dad at Go by initially playing "by the book" and then placing ~5-8 completely random unexpected placements of my pieces. Thinking I had a plan, he moved to counter my random pieces which required 2-3 extra moves so in essence my 5-8 moves were equivalent to 15-24 moves for him.
Anton Chigurh knew what he was doing with that coin.
Lol so true. As long as I've been playing fighting games, especially since mvc2 and 3, when it came to cross ups I always thought 'If I don't know where I'm going, they don't know where I'm going' it's worked great ever since.
that's great, although I'd bet you have a bias you are not aware of, that a good player will pick up on so mix it up with deliberate choices for maximum efficacy.
When I was studying game theory to implement an algorithm to analyze a game called Big Points, I interpreted the minimax theory as being: "minimize your opponents score and maximize your score". It seems to be a little different than "minimize your maximum loss".
I'm kinda confused
please explain with examples
@@sumerrana6805 his interpretation is to score as much as possible while keeping your opponent from scoring as much as possible. this doesn't protect you from a worst case scenario against you.
In others words Mateus is being proactive with all his turns without thinking what would his enemy do and devising a defense against that situation.
say there is a game where both teams pick their actions and they play out at the same time. now Mateus says "half of my team will gather as many point as they can and the other half will play interference and deny as many points for the enemy as possible"; the enemy goes "all out to destroy Mateus base". the half of Mateus negating points doesn't do anything because the enemy is not gathering points and he did nothing to defend his base. not a perfect example but i think it explains the difference in reasoning.
cool video. counter intuitive indeed is great just like great security is random is random
This video was so helpful! It taught me to never click on a Game Theory video again, lest I waste 3 minutes of my life.
Tnx 4 saving me 3 minutes, may yours always be blessed 🙌
me2
I always look for comments like this when I click on a video like this one :D
Wow powerful discussion
When you realize all your life decisions have just been game theory
This reminded me of how I used to submit projects in the University with the least time and effort spent: by making a project that hardly fulfills the requirements with the least resources available (time, effort and cost if required) and make use of the remaining resources to "sell" my project to the professor. Start from the bottom up, not the other way around and don't place the bar high enough to "fail" delivering such project on time, that's how AI thinks!!
This is what I do lol
I'm really bad at strategy games because I'm very reactionary. So I guess I could say I'm easily baited into doing things? I'd probably be terrible at poker lol.
by your definition of reactionary, I am too but I am good at everything you stated (atleast in my availability biased knowledge). Just a little knowledge and retrospection will take you a long way.
My cross country coach taught me to treat practice as it's life or death, so the actual race feels like a warm up.
I'd like to see practical examples of game theory.
I'd be mostly interested in morally grey areas, but also things such as:
You got all your friends and family in one place and built up a career and home, but the state gets worse and so does the economy. How would you determine if it's better to emigrate, despite the costs? You don't know how bad it will get and most only see it when it's too late...
A related point would be, if the security situation worsens, but weapon laws are not in your favor, when would you go for illegal carry in case of criminals targeting you. (however, in that case, I think the prior point has been reached...)
Similarly, one could argue, how long would you follow your orders, when you do not agree with them. Most say immediately, but I do know that this is far from the truth... This definitely is something that troubled my grandfather and I've been in a similar situation, albeit on a much smaller scale, as my former boss offered to help me, but demanded something illegal in turn...
With FPS games, it's all about being "off angle" and the routes you travel.
Being "off angle" means you're not defending or camping on a common spot, but a bit more down the road or a few windows to the left/right.
And you shouldn't always take the same routes to travel from point A to B if there are multiple ones.
If you have to attack an objective, there could be one side that's the weakest point, but don't make a habit of always attacking from that side - otherwise they'll focus and set up additional defenses at that side.
Attack them from another side every once in a while, to keep their focus split up across all the possible sides.
5 windows. 2 buildings.
Cycle.
Drop a care package. Use it as bait.
Get a predator missile. Get 2+ kills.
Drop an AC130 kill streak.
Let your teammates get the carepackage.
Gg.
Pro mode: ninja mode, counter UAV, ac130, drop a nuke (that does not work in competitive play. Your nuke should be a counter uav, and an actual nuke is a wasted killstreak)
Counterstrike? Protect the AWP. Get really good with pistols, the carbine and the ak47.
Halo? Sniper rifle and battle rifle. Plasma nades.
Battlefield derivatives? A good AR or next level sweep sniping and teamwork.
Trump took this and ran
Deondre Clark 😂😂😂
Legend says he's still running
Trump was the wrong man in the right moment. He Charmed the angry mob and was the sucker punch against a weak and failed opposition. He is literally the epitome of the USA and to some degree all of western culture. The Chinese and Russia will certainly and naturally have more of a say in this world previosly dominated by the West. For the record I am European and one thing in life is that change is constant.
Deondre Clark ha u beat me to it
LOL!
Charlie Day screaming "Wild card, b*itches!", comes to mind.
I have had this strategy used against me by younger players in the game of chess
Reminds me of the time I beat a tennis player 6-4 in a one set game.
I play squash, so can hit a ball, but did “everything wrong” (like underarm serves and wristy dropshots) and he failed to counter my unorthodoxy with his greater skill.
No doubt he would have won if we had time for a full game.
Awesome video
This is why in video games some times bad players beat the better players.
For example in a fighting game, as time goes on there are strategies that are established and shared through out the community. As you get better you learn to take advanced of those strategies.
However, a new player does not have that pre-requisite knowledge of the strategies so they actually are playing completely random. If you are experienced in said game and rely on certain strategies in order to respond/defend/ or counter attack .. u are at an a deficit despise having more mechanicals skill and game time experience than the newer player. But my friend thinks I’m just giving him excuses haha
Love the end. Can't outthink the dumb ^^
Thomas Wayne Sure you can. You just have to know all the trees of possibilities and act accordingly. A noob can make random moves but if you always play against the strongest move you will end up exploiting any inferior counter moves. Only thing that can give noobs an edge is when luck plays as a factor, like drawing a poor dice roll or having a bad hand, then there is so much you can do. But on games like checkers or chess noobs are just obliterated since players usually recognize the underlying principles of how that move was, and where will it prove an hindrance if you correctly exploit it.
The goal is for all players to consistently all choose Y. Doing so ensures no losses and only wins for everyone.
80:20 rule - let them keep taking the 20 while you're protecting your 80. then let them keep taking your 20 until you have nothing. mini max sounds great
Huh
sounds right to me👌
yeah in a fighting game if your opponent realizes you are thinking minmax rule then you're just going to get minned to death. you have to periodically violate the rule to appear unpredictable while still trying to follow it overall.
Thx for containing subs
Thanks!
Thank you very much! We'd be happy to send you some stickers if you'd like - just fill out our Google form at docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdZdQb0Rb-_UO4txWxjVQD5bISKMFGt90CFeyeFvPw-92McBg/viewform?usp=sf_link
Queue episode in each action cartoon where the main character stops thinking to beat the villain who can read minds.
Yep, always try and keep an ace up your sleeve.
This is helpful for poker players... Who love to play pokers...
Minimising your maximum loss is a solid base strategy to the long game in pretty much anything in life. It makes the opponent irrelevant.
To add to the speaker, Modern day poker has evolved vastly. Before each hand starts, I have a baseline of what percentage of combinations of cards _(higher % is looser play, lower % is tighter play)_ will be _"optimal"_ for me to play my hand - as in entering the pot as the initial raiser.
So typicallly, the closer you are to the big blind, you want to open and play your hands tighter - since there are more players left to act, and you have no idea the strength of their hands and looser play _(the closer to the button)_
BUT from here on out is where most pros start having deviations and variations in poker regards to *_Game Theory Optimal_* or GTO for short.
Like the speaker said, you want to mix it up or you will be destroyed. And it just so happens I am terrible in poker at mixing it up! Also like the speaker said, if I don't mix it up correctly, a highly skilled opponent will pick up the slightest pattern and counter my play. So you see, mixing it up can be a double edge sword, if your random acts are not really random, you just shot yourself in the foot.
So being the terrible poker player I am, I do the opposite. *I mix it up by blending in as much as possible.* I find hand combinations that I group together and give them a specific line or a style _(only raise or fold these hands)_ and so on _(only call or check these hands)_
Long story short, since I'm not genius enough to mix it up professionally, I play a type of poker game theory that *simplified.* So I'm defending from my opponent from having as little moves as possible, so in away, *_everything looks the same_* _(the poor man's version of mixing it up lol)_
Hope that was interesting enough to read and a better grasp of modern poker theory.
Carnivorous plants only end up catching a tiny percentage of insects who feed from them. It's hypothesized this is to prevent adaptations that would eventually make the insects immune to the trap through natural selection. In nature,in war and in fighting it's not an arms race..It's more like rock paper scissors.
In the sport of boxing you do not want your opponent to establish what your rythum and timing is as this will make the fight far easier for them. You want to break rythum. You want your timing to be unpredictable. You want your punch selection to be difficult or ideally impossible to predict and you even want to counter the same attack with different counters. You want to fill your opponent with a sense of indecision. Feint so they are unsure when you are attacking and when you are not. Use their reactions to your feint against them. Fundamentally though you will always be trying to follow a certain set of principles. Balance. Efficient punching technique. Ring generalship (do you want space or do you want to corner them?). Defensive responsibility while punching. Smothering or avoiding attacks during the exchanges and after the exchange. I would say this most likely applies to other things that I am less familiar with. Don't be predictable but don't be random either. Being literally random is not smart at all.
The game theory series is amazing
This video seems to imply that 'Minimizing your maximum loss' and playing a random strategy are the same thing. But they're not. If you mimimize your maximum loss, there's usually one option you can choose for any given scenario. If you play a semi-random strategy, each scenario gives you several options, from which you choose randomly.
You must also realize that if your opponent is “very very smart” , it means it took them time to develop that intelligence, which means you can also develop that intelligence over time.
That's not how intelligence work
@@adolfhipsteryolocaust3443 you know clause of good luck and intuition can make you think you are intelligent.
As a fighting game player I've seen this happen a lot. "I'm plus on block, nobody is dumb enough to press a button here so I'll do x y z" and lo and behold, they pressed a button. "No way he would DP on wakeup three times in a row, right?" Then you eat a DP and look like an idiot. There's really a different meta depending on the skill level of the opponent. You can't always rely on the opponent to make the optimal move. That's why I'll go for the wakeup super, just every now and then. I always say "You gotta show em you're a little bit crazy"
I liked the content👍👍
The final mission scene where Tenpenny's going to shoot Carl after killing Big Smoke shows how useful game theory is.
3:25 this is the reason why Artosis loses most of the time against Protoss
With all the how to videos I've watched over the past decade. I should be on top of the world, instead I'm still on the couch.
Precise👌🏻
An example where game theory can be applied - Stock market. It is a zero-sum game.
It is not
I’m using this for my first MMA fight
Phenomenal writing. A book on this subject matter that I read was life-affirming. "Game Theory and the Pursuit of Algorithmic Fairness" by Jack Frostwell
This is why deadpool is the strongest superhero
And joker one of batman's worst nemesis
I will employ this to my chess games.
Can this be applied to stocks?
The sophisticated and non-sophisticated opponents have different ranges of behavior and therefore the optimal strategy one should use is likely going to be different. Hand range is a foundational poker concept - all poker strategy is ultimately based on it.
Hey there I want to know how to win Yy and spriests in 3s
This explanation would have been much better had examples been included.
People in games especially Video Games tend to be very predictable in how they'll react to certain events. Like I remember playing CoD 2 on a LAN with other people, one map had a spot I liked to snipe from the window of a building. I killed a few people but knew if I stayed where I was someone was going to come in the building and shoot me from behind for revenge.
So after i killed someone again, I then simply went and crouched down in the corner of the room and waited. Sure enough a minute later someone ran into the room looking for me sniping, saw the window was vacant and assumed I'd left then they went to start sniping. And I shot them from behind and resumed sniping for a short while longer.
Then I left the window again but instead of hiding in the room I went down the hall to a tiny room with no windows and hid there. Then waited until I heard footsteps come up the stairs and pass by, then I snuck down the hall and shot the person that had come looking for me again, except I wasn't hiding in the corner like they expected.
People inherently look for patterns, if you can avoid having a super consistent pattern then it'll give you a leg up as an opponent won't be able to always predict what you are going to do.
We don't know what we're doing. But they don't know that we don't know what we're doing... and that's next level.
When i start losing an argument, i just attack their character. It works well
Logical fallacy lolk
Lol works well for whom? Everyone that isn't smart enough to see that you've lost the debate on rational grounds.
It may feel like a check mate when you do it, but it's harder to think of a bigger white flag of surrender than regressing to 4th grade tactics during a discussion occurring in your mid 20s. In fact, the only way you could more clearly telegraph your own defeat would be to piss your pants on the spot. 😅
See I wouldn’t say I’m smart but i am usually random due to the fact that I know people are creatures of patterns and I know is savvy or above average I will notice and compensate for their unpredictable behavior by anticipating it by as much I have control within whatever situation I’m in.
looking at this as a Yugioh player. Outplaying your opponent does nothing, the game is over before you can even play, if you make a single misplay you just lost.
Gotta just believe in the heart of the cards XD
*_You fool! You just activated my trap card, this allows me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I will now begin my turn by activating Pots of Greed, which allows me to draw two more cards. I activate Pots of Greed, allowing me to draw two more cards. I now activate my trap card, dealing 4% of your maximum hp for each card I have drawn! I now draw my other trap card, nullifying all of your active cards, defenses, offenses, and neutral Switzerland cards you have activated, deactivated, or passive! I now draw my Seething Righteous Rage card, capping your total combined HP and armor and shields to remain at 100%, bypassing all other forms of defense, granting me 100% hit chance, stacking my damage to shatter the infinite time cortex continuum at every realm and dimension, and making me immune to all debuffs, hostile spells, and hostile spells under the guise of a benevolent spell or otherwise non-hostile spell! Omae Wa Mou Shindeiru!_*
Any good books on this?
I once beat a guy with rock paper scizzors 4 times in a row
I used scizzors the first time
And the three times thereafter I told him every time I'd use scizzors again
It worked
Winning is all in the mind
And I won that day
By knowing your opponent isn’t a master of the way. You sweep the board.
I can’t decide between taking game theory or applied statistics next term.