One clarification about some mistakes made in Mr. Lee's comments: During the "free floating period" of HK$ in the 1970s up to 1983, HK$ was very strong because of its strong export-led economy. The exchange rate was around HK$5.6 to one US$! However, the start of the sino-British talks on the future of HK eroded the confidence of HK people, and the exchange dropped steadily to around HK$7+ per US$. The lack of progress of the talk, dramatized by the fall of Margaret Thatcher in Beijing, led to panic among HK-ers. The exchange rate reached a low point of HK$9.5 or 9.6 per US$. The then Financial Secretary, Sir John Bambridge, a former Taipan of Swire, resolutely implemented a peg of the HK$ to US$ at $HK7.8 to one US$. This restored confidence in HK. The range of $7.75 - 7.85 was a later modification of the peg.
What you just said might be substantially true, but the talks ... eroded the confidence of the HK ers and the exchange rate fell. Shouldn't it be the confidence of fx traders for HK fell, or a reflection of consensus of the market?
The speculative attack on HKD actually happened in late 1970s, the fall of Margaret Thatcher in China just added further insult to it. During the free floating period, Hong Kong did not have a clear monetary target and money growth was out of control. The lack of a clear monetary objective clearly invited the speculators to sell short of the HKD. The two books by John Greenwood and Tony Lattner provide the detailed history. (They are the father of the Linked Exchange Rate System).
Wow. Eye opener. I don't understand this entirely. I see money is the best medium of exchange. I see a new player to a service market. It's success rely on how many clients it can pull. What would be the net gain when the pie is divided. The head salesman can't speak properly (or eloquently) in any language. What is he going to sell? Bed Bath and Beyond us a successful retailer enjoying numerous branches all over the country. The business has fundamentals. A few years ago it began making bad decisions. Branches closing became the order of the day. A few days ago it filed for bankruptcy. There are a few gravitation rules in businesses. Breaking them is game over. It will be interesting watching the profit and loss account in the international money game.
感激利世民 不厭其煩 提供資料
利先同沈生都係呢個年代的香港精英
应同以上佢地真係香港的精英。，努力呀。
利生，教授加力💪
利先生，精通金融界的高手。👍🙏
超棒的分享！多謝兩位！
感謝利世民嘅講解，好精彩👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
感謝沈教授安排呢次訪問🙏🏻🙏🏻💛🍎
贊同👍利世民先生對人民幣取代港元的態勢必然會發生, 未來香港將會跟美元脫鈎, 取而代之全面將港元變人民幣之二次回歸為一體化的見解。香港將成為中國一般城市沒分別。個人認為這應該是中國好幾年前早已預定推行的政策了。
哈哈想得美。
🎉
謝謝🙏🏻2位主持人良心論述
謝謝你哋詳細資料📃分析及分享
謝謝台前幕後所有團隊工作人員
感謝兩位Simon
感恩教授
感謝利先生分析👍👍
多謝沈教授！
專業的評論。正義的宏音，感謝兩位。
講解很清楚，令我這個門外漢也清楚明白！謝謝利先生！😊
多謝兩位
多謝！
必須聽👍
感謝利生深入淺出分析
講得好淺白又有道理👍👍👍👍👍
兩位好👍
多謝沈教授❤
今集有料
两位资深学者好高庆听到您們分享
I am the number 471 liked
全台湾人民众志成城，抗共保台，维护世界和平！台湾🇹🇼🇹🇼加油加油再加油加油台湾！台湾🇹🇼🇹🇼棒棒的！全球民主自由人权同盟都挺🇹🇼🇹🇼台湾！
Thanks
【海外香港 270 💰】利世民：當《華爾街日報》報導不能提取的強積金是「新香港」人質（四）
ua-cam.com/video/eOjNHZOCua4/v-deo.html
梗係脫勾掛盧布啦🤭
重返羅胡成買賣
人仔計價
講弊都殺
【海外香港 268 💰】利世民：港元「澳門元化」：特區政府連年赤字預算的必然結局（二）
ua-cam.com/video/b2OesYoyY_o/v-deo.html
【海外香港 269 💰】利世民：65歲之後，可能只能提取年金：「新香港」MPF是一場騙局嗎？（三）
ua-cam.com/video/puFMZ6vkVSM/v-deo.html
謝謝分享
晚上好
Thanks for sharing.. learning a lot from Simon!!!
兩位主持人：能有新環境最好，但種種原因或年纪問題不能走，這是没辨法的，底下層的生活惟有艱難生活下去，而生活質素一定降低下去，但又有甚麼辨法，幾拾年前香港經歷過三年另八個月，估不到幾拾年後又要面對，但願香港無數次後，再能重光見日！
香港是已經在97年回歸.....是回歸中國，當年不走，現在說走不了？如果外國生活是美好的，其實可以不顧任何考慮隨時離開中國，不要再痛苦求存，中國應該不會強迫你留下，除非你不能出境。
感謝分享🙏🏻❤️❤️
全球去美元化只係時間問題，以廢美現時不断印美冥……資不抵債，銀行破產、好快玩完……
人民幣對外始終無法自由對換, 無法自由貿易
利生👍
Thank you both, this was very informative
多謝沈教授訪問利先生！
最終導致⋯⋯⋯⋯劣幣驅逐良幤⋯⋯⋯⋯🫤🫤🫤
Good!
One clarification about some mistakes made in Mr. Lee's comments:
During the "free floating period" of HK$ in the 1970s up to 1983, HK$ was very strong because of its strong export-led economy. The exchange rate was around HK$5.6 to one US$! However, the start of the sino-British talks on the future of HK eroded the confidence of HK people, and the exchange dropped steadily to around HK$7+ per US$. The lack of progress of the talk, dramatized by the fall of Margaret Thatcher in Beijing, led to panic among HK-ers. The exchange rate reached a low point of HK$9.5 or 9.6 per US$. The then Financial Secretary, Sir John Bambridge, a former Taipan of Swire, resolutely implemented a peg of the HK$ to US$ at $HK7.8 to one US$. This restored confidence in HK. The range of $7.75 - 7.85 was a later modification of the peg.
What you just said might be substantially true, but the talks ... eroded the confidence of the HK ers and the exchange rate fell. Shouldn't it be the confidence of fx traders for HK fell, or a reflection of consensus of the market?
The speculative attack on HKD actually happened in late 1970s, the fall of Margaret Thatcher in China just added further insult to it. During the free floating period, Hong Kong did not have a clear monetary target and money growth was out of control. The lack of a clear monetary objective clearly invited the speculators to sell short of the HKD. The two books by John Greenwood and Tony Lattner provide the detailed history. (They are the father of the Linked Exchange Rate System).
快啲啦
ING
現在進行中
香港最寶貴的地方國際金融中心嘅角色，冇咗呢個作用，香港只係一個小城市，所以應該問的是這個角色對中國有幾重要？重要在那裡？取消聯匯率制度對金融中心的角色有乜影響？
主持, 講一個事實你聽, 我有朋友需要付國內貨款, 朋友話會用人民幣付款, 進出口公司話只收外幣, 不收人民幣, 作為國企, 不收自己國家慨貨幣!
其實唔洗講咁多. 留返3-4個月人工做HKD. 其他轉晒做美金定期就夠. In god we trust.
港幣人民幣雙軌制.就像澳門幣港幣一樣
二位主你好，取代巷币？人子，一二年取代吾？
12月29 有野睇
我買緊美國國債，息高，離岸
為了提高流通量增加點閱率...是否可增列文字說明?
用銀票，皇帝喝花酒是用銀票，保值。
想問如果我個MPF 基金係買歐美市場股市，佢又如何可以將基金成分轉向內地債券？
李生 你好👋
美麗新香港 = 南深圳 = Hell Kong --- ua-cam.com/channels/OyrbV7AbYa_Kz4ouL-20JA.html
數碼人民幣, 數碼港幣外國都全不接受, 根本無法做自由貿易 !
純粹唔俾人拎錢走吧
強迫金
數字人民幣才是未来皇者。
👍🏻
😃👍👍👍
Wow. Eye opener.
I don't understand this entirely.
I see money is the best medium of exchange.
I see a new player to a service market. It's success rely on how many clients it can pull.
What would be the net gain when the pie is divided.
The head salesman can't speak properly (or eloquently) in any language. What is he going to sell?
Bed Bath and Beyond us a successful retailer enjoying numerous branches all over the country. The business has fundamentals. A few years ago it began making bad decisions. Branches closing became the order of the day. A few days ago it filed for bankruptcy. There are a few gravitation rules in businesses. Breaking them is game over.
It will be interesting watching the profit and loss account in the international money game.
外滙管制早前已經出現
其實呢類學者, 預言家有邊次重？
情況等如A犮明了免冼底庫，然後話10年後個個都會着。
第一鈔你覺A 好劲，但十年後，邊個記得呢件事。
然後A 於一年後又犮明產品b，不過話5年後才流行。
效果就係你永遠記得A 同“犮明”連在一起的錯覺。但其實冇樣成功。
對呢類評論員，以政治評論員為例，個個都係看破江山，分柝力强，個個政客都係傁仔，自己一定係歌精舞勁人又型，最叻嗰個。。。。
但自己又做唔到政治家。奇嗎？
🤔👍
👍👍👍🙏🙏🙏
所以我揸美元
唔好以為帶眼鏡，講嘢慢，講一兩句英文就學者。
共產黨表面有七個常委，現實有8 位，第八位就係存活了70多年的共產黨。它才是真正總書記。你唔信，自己开間公司，十年後將上班時間由8 至5 改為9 至6. 你睇會點。習主席考量的東西必要想想這第八位常委的想法。
你係共產黨，你當香港係一粒红宝或Rolex。上海，北京。。。已是鑽石，他已有很多鑽石，為何要將紅宝變成鑽石。
我唔知你對联匯有多認識。但其一作用就好似澳門睹場，騙你將現金對成碼，它再將公認的碼在其他睹場睹。
基於馬太效應，連去南美買白粉都要用美金啊，大哥。
大陸點會叫香港放棄美元。
係人都不希望香港又係鑽石啦。
👍👍👍👍👍👍
😀👌👍✌️
想問利生, 香港銀行準備支持加密貨幣, 背後的意圖係咩?
你還真以為他知道目前香港發生著什麼事情？
@@jixianwang3564 如果你知道, 可以分享你的想法
等待人民幣可自由兑换先至講
嚇大的
💯👍👍👍
沈旭暉先生 可否代我問利世民先生一個問題 本人只是一個小市民 但覺得港幣總有一天會被廢除 所以想用港幣去換美元 但沒有這點經驗 想請問 去銀行對換比較好 還是去找換店換比較好呢? 我意思是 換得比較多和安全呢? 謝謝
Interactive Brokers，研究下
我長期換美元來對沖，都可以講少少比你參考。暫時，最少直到此時此刻「香港去任何銀行或找換店換美金都係安全」，你唯一需要留意只係匯率高低問題。而最安全做法，係開離岸戶口，將美金存在海外銀行。
@@tiaj44 謝謝你
@@vietnamukt7731 謝謝你的好意見 因我聽到幾位街坊和朋友都說 以香港未來的形勢 美元和港幣終有一天會脫勾 之後會在短時間內 港幣會迅速貶值 齊聲都說 將部份積畜換美金來保本 以防萬一 再次謝謝你
沈先生，点解你讲最“updates既...”。据我所知，一系most updated, 一系up to date。无“s”啵。
港式英文，不須講究grammar
👋👋
港元不可能脱鈎，除非要香港股市即時玩完。香港冧，大陸唔惦，官員中資大公司等財富一野蒸發，連帶内地一起冧。分分鐘亡國，如歷朝空了國庫一樣，國祚完。😰
問題係美元儲蓄要足夠，未來係點就要放長睇
係要亡肛派，明白嗎？
@@dada-yb6cb 可否詳講一下唔係好明。
@@lymint9587 不論脫五脫勾都好 ，國內肛派巳被清洗，海外肛派 （包括腥講）都要冧 明五明
咁利害?
能有字幕吗
如果真係去美元化就由香港做起，港元要同美元脱鈞先，咁先有人信吖
點解要同人民幣聯繫呀因為佢有兩兆係假鈔喺市面流通 咁咪形成拉低曬講完囉
事實上，現時（2023年4月）香港並不存在 “令不少人擔心港元、美元聯繫匯率很快失守”。也不存在‘中國未能讓人民幣自由流通’（中國過去40年從來沒有考慮過中短期內讓人民幣自由流通，因為自己知道自己至今為止的制度不可能抵禦人民幣自由流通的風險）。更重要的是，不論中國中央政府還是香港特區政府，已經沒有人會主動考慮結束聯繫匯率，因為從政治上考量，這是主動背棄承諾的一國兩制內容的一部分，也是當前中美地緣政治關係下，中國絕對不會選擇的一步棋。奇怪的是，把一個政治上不存在可能、香港也沒有人討論的選擇，硬是說成已經面臨的危機。這已經不是‘堅離地球’第一次刻意製造和討論事實上不存在的、近期也不可能看到的senario了。難道這就是‘堅離地球’一詞的內涵？
如果陳茂波的說話在你我講出嚟肯定俾拉。
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
沈的問題和我的問題一様。而家共國願意提供透明度和核數嗎？當對人民幣失去信心時、是否得不常失？！
🍠
有病！
又吹得
你2個5好知少少扮代表 得你2就做左領導
李兆富未夠班
美元，美債已是產能剩餘的產品，冇黃金掛勾，又冇強大工業支撐，算係乜？算係關金？哈！哈！你真攪笑！
有時反共还反共，唔好點人。
其實兩位‘’學者‘’知唔知联匯如何運作？
2019 年真係有好多人拿成100萬去街邊暢錢舖暢美金。
又來一次？？
講白啲，咁得就唔係‘評論員’，即有人成日搞乜投資班，唔通真係賺夠教你點賺嗎？
你知道？
請解釋一下。
簡單講，
金管局應承3間犮鈔行1 美對7.8 港或7.8 港對1美元。
為何係美元，美國係香港重要貿易倮伴，我哋收好多美金，佢死我死，佢得我哋得。
咁為何香港不直接用美金。
美元係全球最流通貨幣，港元在世界上不流通，金管局用‘’廢纸‘’港元換你的美金，它再用美元在世界各地投資。情况等同你用錢在歡笑樂園换一些代幣，他再用你的錢放在銀行做定期。
結論係假切香港巳犮行7仟八百億港元，金管局就有1000億美金。
有乜好驚？？？
九流經濟學家, 冇料辦四條😂
如果人民幣能成立一個新支付系統，避開美元控制，我都支持用人仔了。
問題是，很難。
多謝沈教授！
多謝！
👍