The longer the BoC waits cut rates, the harder they'll fall: Rosenberg
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- Опубліковано 16 чер 2024
- After a period of unprecedented rate hikes, this year will be a story of wage growth slowing as unemployment goes up. That's according to David Rosenberg, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research.
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Bravo on calling out the poor immigration policy.
Most economists in Canada are calling out immigration now, as well as the BoC's failures on rates. Both Tiff and Justin have done a failing job in this country and both have to go.
I am glad our declining productivity is finally being discussed. Another federal blunder boosting immigration to artifically prop up GDP. This year will be tough for Canadians new and old
Same, I've been talking this for almost a year but I think it's a little too late. The amount of crime and homelessness I'm seeing in cities/suburbs, especially in previously safe middle-class neigbourhoods is pretty telling.
Most government money is not spent on productive activities. Waste cannot be fought by the bank. Only the female vote can save us now from communism and destruction. Women need to wake up to what Trudeau really represents.
I actually believe everything he says.
Very smart man.
It's just his timeline that I don't buy, it's self serving.
Sooner cuts are better for big business and investment firms.
Later is better for Canada if we plan on living in a prosperous country anytime in the near future.
All by design
Lot of refugees. Canada commitment is 1 million Ukraine n 1 million afghans n many from other parts of world. What they will contribute? Why the government can't support them sending money there and ending war?. This will impact many socio culture aspects. People who can integrate with Canadian values should only be given any support or what's happening in Europe soon will follow here.
I dont think people are scared enough at the fact that almost 2 MILLION people came here last year, allegedly to fill "all the jobs that Canadians dont want" only to have us have a HIGHER unemployment rate 😂. We are so screwed.
They have filled so many jobs that the city of Toronto is talking about adding 6% to property taxes to help house these people in all these jobs that they immigrated here to take.
@@paulmarshall4794 0 i forgot! We added 100, yes 100, PART TIME JOBS to the economy last quarter!! So many jobs with so many unfilled positions with great pay able to land you your own apartment in any metro area!!
Dont you just love living here?
@@paulmarshall4794 I heard it's 12% ?
Immigration file is being handled abysmally
Every file is.
It is a relief to see BNN bringing someone on who backs up his opinion with legitimate facts!
Ikr!
Rosenberg has a passion for lower interest rates tells me he has alternative motives.
@@dailydrivenmuscle. everyone has a passion for lower interest rates.
@@dailydrivenmuscle. Rosenberg has always been consistently wrong and rich people need and want higher interest rates not lower ones.
@@parkerbohnnWhy, do you think rich people grow their money in a daily interest savings account? 🤦♂️
It blows my mind how terrible the canadian government is at their jobs, pretty sure justin bieber could do a better job as finance minister.
Finally someone is asking the question, what are the immigrants doing? Finally someone said that “smart” immigration is great, immigration that pays for itself. If only our federal government had smart individuals that could understand this theory, instead of focusing strictly on re-election and buying votes.
Are you telling me that people who are illiterate in their native language are not going to be a benefit to Canada? I’m shocked.
Liberal government is desperate and willing to sacrifice the future of Canada by importing votes.
lol
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TIME FOR AN ELECTION PERIOD!
You can FEEL the inflation. You can FEEL the fire burning. We NEED the interest rate to hold, otherwise the fire will burn brightly. It will be an embarrassment if they don't!
The inflation rate is over 3% the target is between 1 - 2 %, so even now, it is twice what it should be. House prices need to stay the same or go down. Period.
Agreed 120%!!! The truth to the face. Canada needs to wake up.
Too eager for low rates. Neutrality is not there until Inflation is at the defined target., as per those who control monetary policy. This is what happens with stimulus, no matter how you try to word it. Stimulus is incentive. Households must learn economics, economic cycles and start to reset. Its better to learn about this than to rely on the government as they use us as liquidity. As per David, "the longer they wait, the harder they fall," which is good for households that are patient and prepare. May households be patient and prepare for the opportunity for the rates to fall harder, if BOC continues to wait.
Ah someone who actually has an idea and says it like it is. Shame we can't have people like this at the helm. People won't like it but at least Canada would not have an ever reducing quality of life for the citizens.
In other words - he's NOT a WEF puppet.
The reason the GDP is not going up with immigration is because a significant percentage of the immigrants are coming in under the family re-unification class. So, not only are most of them unlikely to be able to speak one of the two official languages fluently; they may be seniors who are not able to work, possibly disabled or cannot even get a job. Yet, these people are entitled to free medical care, welfare, CPP disability benefits and other benefits. In other words, this immigration class is a not a net contributor but a net loss or drain for the economy.
Glad someone is finally talking truth for a chagne.
Been going on for years. You don’t have to look far.
This guy has very valid points about lowering interest rates & immigration…. Trudeau, Macklem… are you listening?? You really should… or you’ll be out of a job come next election…
thay will be out regardless
they should've been out of job yesterday!
the problem is not immigration, the problem is that they printed too much money globally.
I respect this guy, and normally agree with him, but he's kinda become a bit too 'confident' in himself. nice to have 20-20 vision on a high horse.
is the BoC cuts rate, people will flood cash into real estate and not into productive assets, where real investment should go. this is the problem. therefore the housing market needs more regulation and needs to be crushed, because people think housing prices only go higher from here. we need higher for longer. 5% is normal... look at historical rates.
it's literally the only safe option people see because they've been socially engineered by our policies and parents to do so. Hard rules absolutely must come....but they won't.
Can't just let anyone in with no skills this needs to stop
Rates should increase until all levels of government stop deficit spending
and stop padding the employment report with jobs that do nothing that they're creating to prop up the system artificially and farming taxes harder and harder to keep the game afloat.
If we are in trouble then the government is in trouble and the head of BOC will lose his job. Heads are going to roll.
The worst thing that can happen is they lower rates before inflation is under control. That happened in the 1970s and caused a disaster.
Yes, runaway inflation is a greater evil than a mild recession.
"Everybody focuses on the here and now... they can't focus beyond the tip of their nose..."😂😂😂
Rosenberg gives us the reality of the situation.
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Keep rates high, drive home prices down.
Who decided inflation has to be 2%? Why not 1 or 3%?
My assessment: Canada will hold rates where they are through 2024. You heard it here first.
Nah I said it last week
Watch them hike in March when the Fed cuts. RIETS will shit their collective pants, might even bring down the US sector.
Considering the new bailout policy by the FED for regional banks the BoC ironically can AFFORD to raise so long as it's before march.
He should be in government or at least take Tiff’s job.
Smart folks like Mr Rosenberg tend to overestimate the intelligence of the average person/family. If there's a rate cut, even an inconsequential minor one, it's going to be splashed all over head-lines by the real-estate-casino-complex and at-risk folks are gona be fooled to think real estate has hit a low and they'll go nuts again.
Suckers are easily separated from their money
He was probably paid by the late Mr. Ponzi himself.
Don't cut rates... We need to get housing back
Anyone who isn't in massive amounts of debt will be fine... Lots of people playing rich landlord when they're leveraged beyond their means
A nice long tough recession is what Canada needs though to make housing affordable.
You only get that with double digit unemployment and no immigration. Just be aware of what you are wishing for and the reality of government - unless the Liberals get punted for a decade - immigration will continue to ratchet up, the growth of the public sector jobs will ratchet up and taxes will ratchet up to pay for all of that…I hope we see a drop in immigration, an increase in unemployment temporarily and a return to sanity but it doesn’t seem the deck is stacked in that direction - at least as of now.
So well said!
FED has had little effect on stock markets. Stocks are at highs and poised to vault higher.
Agreed. Even with a 150 basis point reduction back to neutral of 3.5% would only result in mortgage rates of about 4.75% instead of the current 6.25%-ish. Not stimulating at all given you'd still be cash flow negative on most new condo builds with current rents.
Nahh...keep them high. Drive housing down. It's a joke, builders can build for less.
@@dailydrivenmuscle. Would be nice but given the shortage of Trades and builders and they can't lose money the projects need to pencil in, I doubt it. Prices for new builds are the price.
We have to stop "stimulating" the economy with lowering interest rates. Its going to fire up inflation even more. Let the economy correct itself
People are still trying to sell for $450 a square foot! How will house prices fall exactly?
Rosenberg should be Canada's Finance Minister!
He was probably paid by the late Mr. Ponzi himself. 😅
I hope we have a recession led by a fall in real estate prices. Canada needs to be more focused on productivity, not focused so much on real-estate speculation.
I bought a home in October 2023 but it was in a quite affordable market. We do something crazy known as “building more homes for people who want to move here”.
I literally saw last summer, on a trailer in a new development (SFH-low rise apartments), posters advertising for people to work construction in Vancouver. Sure it’s more cultured and the weather is nicer, I’ll give Van that, but if one can’t enjoy life because they are struggling to afford a roof over their heads it doesn’t seem worth it. I’d potentially make 30-50% more in Vancouver but, with median housing costing 200% more, I wouldn’t be able to make it work.
The economy is all real estate speculation... Condos aren't selling and detached homes are taking massive cuts to prices because these reits have been leveraging themselves into oblivion... It's gonna hurt but if you don't have a mortgage you'll be fine. Plenty of businesses expand not using mortgages... Those businesses are profitable without any debt... Mortgages just ease the burden of having to be actually flush with cash.
BC stands you Bring Cash, don’t you know that?
Not gonna happen. RE is the economy. We have you by the balls. We say, box jumps. Cuts by April. Deal with it.
Not gonna happen. RE is the economy. We have you by the balls. We say, box jumps. Cuts by April. Deal with it.
Not gonna happen. RE is the economy. We have you by the balls. We say, box jumps. Cuts by April. Deal with it.
Our GDP Per Capita was the same as the US in 2012. Now US GDP Per Capita is more than 50% higher
walking that razors edge trying to not get cut. Rates go down the dollar collapses even further. Rates go up people lose their houses.
Wow … people really really don’t have a clue about the reason of the disaster we live in ! So everyone wants low rates and easy money ? In this environment?! …. Take a look at grocery prices ! I walk in the supermarket and people wonder around with empty carts because everything is too expensive… an average house in any major city in Canada is around a million $ … and you want rate cuts and back to zero rates ?? Well good luck buying a 2 million dollar house then … a housing price slowdown is the only hope we can ever have in Canada
That's what got us into this mess low rates keep them high let the market dictate the interest rates that's the problem let rates stay high the economy functioned ok before boc federal reserve all cartels
No, keep them high please.
You have too much trust in the competence of BoC. You forget that Canadian governments at all levels, and BoC do not show much competence in their policies and actions, examples abound. Most policy decisions are either reactive or driven by vote politics.
They never got rates as high as in America so why should they cut rates at all when the 5 year Government of Canada treasury bond yield has rallied 40 basis points in the last 2 and a half weeks? Mortgage rates should be rising.
When it comes to policy on interest rates this guy is talking reality.
Freeland: "But we have a AAA Credit Rating and lowest Debt to GDP Ratio in the G7!"
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Inflation sent up today but he says rate cuts early?
He wants rate cuts sooner , what a joke this will again prop up home prices but we will all be poorer in USD terms
What are they doing once they are here?
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This sounds so good and I would like to be a party to this, Is there any way I can speak with him?
Canada inflation is no where near target, and there is no reason to think it will get to target and stay there. Any premature cutting of the interest rate will only serve to fuel another wave of inflation. He knows that.
Ditto! Runaway inflation is greater evil than a mild recession.
I have almost forgotten what it is like to listen to an intelligent person express their opinion and ideas. Usually you just hear politicians pushing ideologies or campaigning.
They better cut.. I need a third home NOW for my new Colombian baby mama
Thanks Mr Rosenberg.Please write more often for the National Post !Perhaps you can explain a way out of the quicksand of economic doom that tru doh has put Canada in.
I think this guy loses some credibility saying that this applies South of the Border as well. Fundamentals for the US economy are stronger than for Canada, there's really no reason for the Fed to cut rates aggressively at the moment. BoC is a different story but there are always people talking about how we are on the brink of a huge recession - sure they are right eventually, but the timing of the predictions is more important than the content, oftentimes.
How money come to existence when someone borrow it otherwise it is piece of paper. If interest rates are then no one will borrow it and then the consequences is sloth economy and especially Canada no productions but distribution centers.
We need a new governor for the BoC. At a time when families finances are stretched to the limit, the BOC continues to disproportionately negatively impact the working class, specifically home owners and SMEs. Mortgage holders cannot continue to carry the load for the rest of the country, while the rich build bunkers globally and get richer and the working poor continues to suffer. We need a new governor who knows how to make macroeconomics policies where every segment of society is fairly carrying the load. For the past 3 months, BoC rate should have been cut to 3 percent. If inflation keeps going up then that rate adjust upwards and if inflation goes further down, adjust downwards accordingly. When elites run our institutions there is just no common sense and only the rich benefits from their policies.
If they cut rates housing is going to skyrocket. They need even higher rates for longer
The government needs to put a complete pause on all immigration including international student visas until both unemployment reduces and housing completions AND new housing starts reach a sustained rate of 300k units per year at minimum.
Yes
Part of the discussion being left out here is that educated high earning Canadians are leaving on mass and being replaced with uneducated low income immigrants. Combined its a recipe for financial collapse. Wonder why its so hard and expensive to get homes built? All the builders have left and been replaced with Mcdonalds workers.
Why do you assume that all « Canadians » are educated and all immigrants come to work in Macdonald’s?
@@Ka-hs4yc all the educated canadians are leaving, and thanks to beurocracy, all the immigrants are only allowed to work at mcdonalds. Any education they might have is not recognized.
Why would you trust the Bank of Canada Governor. He kept saying inflation is transitory when rates were only 2%. Pierre was 100% right.
Yes, prior to a pandemic, prior to a war in Europe, prior to wild fires and floods.
If you can’t recognize that the world we experience has events that can change the direction of fundamentals.
on immigration, no one in Canada wants to make a minimum wage so who else fills that gap? its imported because we have a social safety net
Rates are normal now - I can finally make some $ on my savings in GIC.. They shud not cut the rates.. it shud remain at 5-6%
Deliberate mistake due to greed.
I agree with everything he says, except "rates would need to be cut a lot to stimulate any kind of housing activity" - if mortgages go down 0.5% more prices will rise again on a sustainable path.
Yes I’d agree but…I think you want prices to grow to some degree because that is what stimulates the economy and all the spin off - furniture, appliances, etc but you want the growth to be equivalent or at least close to inflation - that’s the balance they need to strike - bringing rates down so housing returns to 2-3% a year growth versus 20% a year growth.
The inflation is not going back to 2% for long time bcz the population growth is making it difficult for the boc to get it back ... I doubt whether that will go back to 3% for ever
Brilliant analysis who is this guest ?
did you read the title?
I’m glad someone finally mentioned the immigrants coming to Canada aren’t filling the jobs most needed to be filled. In part this is the fault of our governments that make it difficult to take their credentials and qualify it for Canada. Some immigrants rather take a different job than go through re-qualifications. This is how we have doctors and engineers working as taxi drivers. It’s a real shame. If their foreign credentials aren’t worth much then they should take immigrants from countries where their credentials are accepted by Canada without or minimum re-qualification.
Finally an economist who knows what they are talking about! Our GDP per capita has been declining for years, yet the morons who run our federal government continue to flood the country with immigrants who are completely mismatched to the needs of the job market, so they are coming in and doing absolutely nothing. On top of that, the BOC is slowing the declining economy even further, creating a crisis of affordability. In addition to that, the high interest rates make construction financing unaffordable, so we have the lowest housing starts in the history of the country. Given the current housing crisis, we should be building more homes, not less. Our government is incompetent on every conceivable level, doing exactly the wrong thing everywhere!
None of these present economists even know inflation
Tremendous respect for Rosie and his work, but sadly the last 2.5 years from him have become a story of "tell me you're long US and CAN fixed income without telling me"
Hummmm. Rosenberg should be the Canada's Finance Minister. The current one is very irritating.
Freeland says that Canadian economy is going great 😂💩
Brilliant
Looking forward to getting crushed by my mortgage rollover in August
Top 5 wealthiest men doubled their wealth in the last 3 years.
If you've no problem with that, we need to have words, mine will be angry.
i think wall street should start first
Rosenberg should start selling cristal balls :-)
I don't think you accept BoC reasons for raising rates. It's to fight against BRIKS, Ukraine war (lack of resources), Hamas war and the decision to go against oil. The Goal is to force people not to pay high prices for real estate and to consume less within our borders. Our goal is to create and export. Our resources and the need to export is what we need to focus on. That requires low costs. Less you consume the more affordable it can be and more supply to export.
This guy is way off. The canadian housing market is already heating up in anticipation of rate cuts. Prices are up 50k on ave in BC in December alone. This is going to be a major bull market in 2024 as investors try to ride the rate cut wave
We NEED BoC to hold and only cut WHEN the US has its recession 6 months later.
you are clueless. so boc has to do what the market anticipate?
@@alberte97 yes central banks typically follow the market. But they do all kinds of fedspeak, jockeying, news releases, etc to steer market but in the end they don't like to shock the market
He is correct. Rate cuts have priced in.
Sorry you're sore about missing out.
Don't worry, it's always been sell the news.@@alberte97
@@michaellawrence3513 great lets lower the rate to trigger another round of inflation which defeats everything that has been done by the boc in last two years
Rosie has it wrong on this one.... the BoC will stay very clearly 'data dependent' with known and expected collateral damage into demand destruction/recession being already painfully aware of the Real Estate based fomo/speculative deleveraging imbalance inevitable back within sustainable cpi inflation metrics..
Monetary Policy cuts will severely lagg known, very "necessary" and expected damage
Very idiotic take ... if we cut and the US deosn't our currency will get devalued. Also the real problem is that most of people's disposable income goes to hosing, food , fuel and taxes , which leaves less and less to spend on other goods and services, which inevitably hurts the economy in the long-run.
"Inflation" more like greed both corporate and at the individual levels
An entrepreneur calls "wages" "expenses".
As the owner, they do not collect a wage.
They collect whatever profit remains and two thirds of all businesses fail, on average.
If wage growth slows, it's because investment slowed.
If investment slowed, it'll be because those with money stopped investing it.
We all know who they are.
Conservatives.
With interest rates near zero during covid housing prices in places like Edmonton still did not even get back to there 2014-2015 highs. Interest rates may cause housing prices to moon again in places like worst case Ontario and bring crack, but other more realistic places in Canada, I do not think it will do much. The root cause of the inflated housing prices is due to the fact that everyone wants to live in the same two cities in the biggest 1st world country in the world. Stupidity and hedonism is to blame, nothing more.
Has he ever been correct?
If you guys let the immigrants work in which they have experience I think immigrants can double the gdp per capital for them atleast.
For how much longer can Canada wait to tap this unrealized potential let immigrants work in there respective fields please.
Most institutions on Wall Street are facing losses due to the purchase of bonds, such as Rosenberg, who are hoping for a rate cut by the FED. what a loser
_Gold_ tinted windows - in your face !
Just ask Stephen _Atrocious_ Poloz how we are doing.
GDP per capita is decreasing but is part of that due to the huge number of people retiring? I get the problem with more immigrants brought in than job creation. Gov't slow to stop that train. Nothing new in my opinion.
why is it not happening in US?
Made me dig a little more. Info from Internet so reliabilty is suspect but, about 20.6% of baby boomers are still alive in the U.S. and 24.9% are still alive in Canada. Info from 2022CY. Didn't find absolute percentages of the populations that equates to. I did find a source that provided 2019 - 2022 GDP per capita for US and Canada. Listing Percent increase compared to prior year 2022 US 8.8%, Can 4.98%, 2021 US 10.53%, Can 20.78%, 2020 US -2.44%, Can -6.52%, 2019 US 3.66% Can 0.37% . So to your question US has a baby boom impact as well and definitely have been doing better than Canada. Canadians like to sell their resources without processing them. What a shame.@@mizutofu
Did anyone really think that importing people with no history of creating first world living conditions in mass would be good for the country? Countries are what they are because of the people who inhabit them.
I know what you think, that a brown haired, green eyed man, selling a superior race of blond haired blue eyed people is worth shaving your head for.
I wish David Rosenberg was governor of the BoC. One of the smartest minds in this country and very pragmatic as well.
no rate cuts... let the weak fail. stop propping up real estate prices or canada will fall harder
Who’s been more wrong than Rosenberg for the past three years ? I’ll wait 🤡
Immigration has kept the housing market from collapsing
Interest rates are already at the lower end of normal. They should be raising int rates not lowering them.
Lower end lol thats an idiotic comment.. tell me you understand fuck all in one comment, congrats you did it !
Dear Friend, I have been trying to talk to you for a long time but couldn't.
Rates are not going down lol... Its going up most likely. The national debt of the US is going up $1 trillion every 3 months, we have hyperinflation knocking on the door right now. Either way, its F for the west middle class.