Rate cuts should be a September decision, not a June one: portfolio manager
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- Опубліковано 9 кві 2024
- Warren Lovely, chief rates strategist at National Bank Financial, Etienne Bordeleau-Labrecque, portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners and Diana Avigdor, head of trading at Barometer Capital Management, join BNN Bloomberg to talk about the path forward for Canada's economy.
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For me the ELEPHANT in the room is really government SPENDING, they actually recognized in previous meetings that it is a driving factor of higher inflation
They can’t lower rates if the federal government is ejaculating debt all over the place.
i would also add immigration ...shelter, food, health care, service are all being bid up higher demand
Nah it's people taking on more debt to fuel their spending......, clearly too few people have stopped spending and not everyone has gotten a raise so that's debt inflation
Won't be pretty when US starts cutting rates due to their economy and Canada either prematurely does the same and loses or has to stay the course or raise rates. Canada's inflation is primarily driven by government spending at this point. So good luck.
You have everything completely backwards.
The US economy is booming and their inflation is still higher than expected, which means they're far LESS likely to cut rates. Canada's economy is doing worse, and our inflation is not as significant, so we're MORE likely to CUT rates and to do so EARLIER.
That said, Canada cutting rates, while the US maintains its rate will put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, making imports more expensive, which will drive our inflation up.
The ultimate result is bad for the Canadian economy, we end up with higher inflation and a slowing economy.
If the economy can tolerate normal interest rates (5%) why would they cut?
If I were a central banker I would like some ammo for the next crisis.
Yeah, this is correct. I’d love to see lower rates personally, but ain’t gonna happen if economy keeps chugging a long.
Thankfully, you're not a central banker.
You don’t want Tiff to be able to respond to the next crisis?
Sounds like someone bit of more mortgage than they can chew…
@@gcc8584 Not ZIRP, but just lower enough to slow the rate of inflation to around 2%
This rates should be held
There wont be any rates cuts. Most of these "experts" are stupid. Maybe that's why they are always "surprised , unanticipated this or that, etc etc"
Hahaha I made almost the exact same comment on another video. First it was 5, then 4, then 3, then 2, they're just blowing hot air
US CPI numbers in. They ain’t good. Higher for longer.
Almost every so called expert brought on this channel predicted rate cuts by now. Maybe they should start bringing in better analysts.
They are not “analysts.”
They are salesmen.
Research the
speaker/s titles.
RATES ARE NOT GOING DOWN ANYTIME SOON.
Too much money for the bank.
After they’ve rinsed every middle class person.MAYBE
Hahaha
Economics is not an exact science, it is a study that equips you with tools to make educated bets or predictions.
While expats predicted a cut, the reality is that it's different. Thats why economist always put a "ceteres parabus" disclaimer to their comments
Its like they all have big Mortgages and need a cut..lol
Rates going up lads
Sure, that should help the canadian peso.
ruble
Where is Earl? He’s the only who has gotten this right.
True!
Lol, the desperation for rate cuts. "Next time guys, its gonna happen next time." Literally the headline after every non-cut announcement hahahaha. Higher for longer boys. Time to get back to normal rate levels. 5% is not high historically. Time to take your bath
Fed still did not win inflation fight so why talking rates cuts this year ?
Canadas inflation is driven by its printing press. As soon as they cut rates, and print, print, print, inflation will surge to new heights. This will actually cause a flight in bonds, sending bond yields higher. Sending mortgage rates up, not down. The bond market determines the direction of interest rates when inflation shows up. The B of C is helpless. They put on a band aid with rate cuts, but the bleeding is so heavy that band aid will fall of quickly.
she said 5% is NOT that bad - i want to see her personal finances - what did she get from her parents ??
You will have it right one day for this cut lol
you mean... canada is still waiting for US to cut rates before they cut rates...
The other reason I think the BoC will have no choice but to cut, is the pending monster morgage renewal, it's going to be absolutely brutal in the coming months leading to 2025 and after. People that make 85 000$ are NOT able to finance a simple 400 000$ morgage with how much they remove in income taxes and 5-6% rates, if people making good wage can't afford anything then I don't see how we can get through this
Look at the FED, we can't lower rates.
More the reason to let rates up... people that pay to much for their homes will have to pay more therefore can't have money to spend in the economy like idiots. That will bring the inflation down.
Cutting rates just perpetuates the bubble.
Canada should keep rates high now, if not raise them, so it can bring the asset bubbles under control. Flying with inflationary economics will eventually mean you run out of runway.
@@evilbred974 Right - we need rates to stay this "high" for a few years ABSOLUTELY past 2025 when all the mortgages renew, then we might see rate drops.
Look at the FED. How Can he lower rates?
25% home owner and 75% rentals
Government must decide to help whom? Poors or these investors? 😊
5% 😂
You must have had 18% with a 50K mortgage.
no has an idea
inflation could go again gas up 30 cents a litre and goin up more
"waiting for goddo"
Diana is one of the worst analyst delusional thinking rate cuts is possible now and saying 2 and half rate cuts what is a half rate cut embarrassing. Imagine investing money with this woman 😂
imagine being over exposed to bonds...
lady is delulu
Rate cuts commence in June 2024, taking 6-8 months to complete. A potential crash, if any, might occur by March 2025. The soft landing narrative is gaining traction, making this big recession everyone is calling for less likely. With $1 million from a business sale, I'm seeking profitable investment opportunities for the next 3 years.
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I'm pleased I found this conversation. If you're comfortable with it, could you share how I can get in touch with the advisor you rely on for your investments?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five aiyears now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
The BoC is looking at every corner for an excuse to raise rates, not decrease them. The BoC's independence should be questioned here as it appears the present government has a vested interest in maintaing high rates.