I'm sure many of you are familiar with this metric, but these will be used often in upcoming team and player analysis so just wanted to make sure everyone understood. As always video suggestions are welcome as well as ways to improve.
Very good explanation of "Expected Goals" including its weaknesses! Since the number of goals in football is relatively low, the result can completely differ from the actual performances. Therefore, xG is a useful evaluation tool!
Just a quick note here, if you guys are familiar with statistics, you'll know that there is a thing in statistics called the expected value. That's where the name expected goals come from - expected value applied to goals.
Good explanation and I like how you pointed out the xG as related to the CL final. Even though I'm a Liverpool fan, I felt that the early penalty led to a less than compelling game based on what the Reds chose to do with that lead.
Can you do a video comparing the 2019/20 premier league season of xG to xP and compare it to how many goals they scored, let in, and points received? As a Chelsea fan, I know that will go down, but just curious to see how bad it actually is lmao. We've missed so many chances and so many good chances. Not to mention we missed that pass right before the great chance so many times due to lack in quality of the pass...utter rediculous. Lol
Is there possible somewhere to upload the football match and see the stats of Ex goals and Ex assists? or must do it manually? because understat is counting only top leagues..
Excellent!!! Really!!! Only small note: try to talk a little bit slower!! Too much information per time unit... just a l. b. slower! Thank you very much!
Takeaway: xG can help performance but its not the end goal of performance. In current world of football, it's seems liverpool and excel in using xG better than others!
It’s true. It means you’re conceding way too much and your defense has holes. It needs to improve as you shouldn’t expect GK to pull off mots-clés every game, it’s not sustainable nor realistic
If you have to research a football bet then you don't know & if you don't know then you shouldn't be betting As someone whos only income is sports betting, I can tell you my research is exactly zero hours per week
Welp, ur lucky. That doesn't mean they're wrong. Ever heard of probability? Just because you got the lottery once doesn't mean you are good at it, you got lucky pal. The more research you put in to understand probability, the more likelier you are to get better results. I'd rather bet on getting a heads on a coin rather than a 1 on a die.
Expected goals is more of a fallacy. It is one of those things that sounds so nice and revolutionary but is not realistic. So who calculates the expected goals? Is it the fans? Every game should have an officially released expected goal; we should start taking expecting goals seriously only when that happens. The expected goal will be next to the ball possession, cards, corners and offsides stats in every game
It can never be perfect and is simply an estimate.. ball possession, cards, corners and offsides are stats which can be measured very accurately, but xG is simply an estimate so it can never be completely accurate, but just because something isn't perfect doesn't mean it can't be useful, you can still use it to compare different teams and players and get a result which is somewhat accurate if you account for errors.
Thought the entire premier league season not a single player has managed to get past him. I think this is more impressive then scoring (in my opinion) 38 goals in a weaker league. He completely transformed the Liverpool dafance from conceding the most goals out of the top six to the least, while leading them to compete with Man City in the title race and possibly got them a Champions League win. Don’t get me wrong I still think Messi is the Goat but this season Van Dajk has been the best playe and deserves the Ballondor
Klaudiusz Blue Firstly, La Liga is not weaker by any stretch of the imagination. If it wasn't a top league, why do players in big EPL teams flock to the Spanish league if they get an offer from a big team there? The Ballon d'Or is about individual contributions, and Messi scored 34 out of Barca's 90 goals in La Liga (nearly 38%). Liverpool only conceded one less goal than Manchester City, but still didn't win the EPL. Liverpool's front three, goalkeeper, and midfield have all played key roles in Liverpool's success. Barcelona is reliant on Messi thanks to the coach's tactics. Messi has made much more of an individual contribution to his team than Van Dijk. Face it, the EPL is not the best league in the world, and you're probably an English person who thinks their nation is the best at football, when it isn't. Your national team is shit, and your league is overrated. Please educate yourself before blabbering.
Siddhant Kadam I’m not English, while I do think the Epl was overrated in the past it is no longer in my opinion. I never said that La Liga is not a top league, I just said it is weaker then the English premier league. The significant measure of a players success is his impact on a team, in which Van Dijk has proven himself as he completely transformed the Liverpool defense. Liverpool is also relient on Van Dijk as Barcelona is on Messi due to the coach’s tactics. I do believe that the premier league is now the best league in the world due to the spread of talent they have and the leagues competition. Your comment seems more like an attack then a contradiction, so perhaps you should go educate yourself before blabbering.
Klaudiusz Blue If it's weaker, then how do the EPL's top players flock to La Liga when they get the opportunity? Why did Cristiano Ronaldo leave Ferguson's Man United? Why did Eden Hazard leave Chelsea, where he won multiple league titles? It's simple, it's because La Liga is the world's top league. Why have 5 of the past 7 winners of the Champions League come from Spain? Why are the players from La Liga always considered among the world's best? Why did the two greatest players of our time both play in Spain? Messi has completely transformed Barcelona, becoming an instrumental part of their attack. Messi has always been a key and irreplaceable element in Barcelona, and without him, this season would have been even more of a train wreck than it was. Also, Liverpool's improved defense can also be put down to Alisson Becker. So, to sum it up, you are wrong about the Premier League being the world's best, and Van Dijk deserving the Ballon d'Or. Messi deserves it more than anyone else. Oh, and copying my conclusion, what originality.
Siddhant Kadam like I said, La Liga used to be the best league in the world, but now it is the premier league in my opinion. Players in the premier league are also considered some of the the worlds best. One of the two greatest players of our time also played in the premier league. While Alisson has also greatly contributed to Liverpool, nobody apart from one player has managed to dribble past Van Dijk this whole season, which clearly shows his importance to this defence, it’s a lot harder to get a goal on target if you can’t get past the defender.
Klaudiusz Blue Are you blind? 5 of the past 7 UCL winners came from Spain, and you're telling me "tHe pREmIer lEAguE THe beST LEaGue in tHe WoRLd"! Also, I am aware CR7 played at Old Trafford, I listed that in my comment! Guess where he transferred from? Sporting CP! From the Portuguese league! I think you're confusing Portugal and Spain, so a quick lesson: Portugal and Spain are separate nations! And he left for Real when he was only 24! The best player in the world right now has played in Spain for all of his career (Messi). And you're telling me 38% of a team's goals isn't an individual contribution worthy of the Ballon d'Or! These statistics only speak for themselves! Salah, Kane, and Aguero are not the best players in the world. Messi is! Hazard is also among the world's best, and he's moving to Real! You're blind if you think the EPL is overrated! And you're blind if you think Messi doesn't deserve the Ballon d'Or!
I'm sure many of you are familiar with this metric, but these will be used often in upcoming team and player analysis so just wanted to make sure everyone understood. As always video suggestions are welcome as well as ways to improve.
Best video so far😁 and good explanation
Very good explanation of "Expected Goals" including its weaknesses!
Since the number of goals in football is relatively low, the result can completely differ from the actual performances. Therefore, xG is a useful evaluation tool!
Spot on!
Just a quick note here, if you guys are familiar with statistics, you'll know that there is a thing in statistics called the expected value. That's where the name expected goals come from - expected value applied to goals.
I think that's basically how it's calculated.
Wow, first time watching it it was Greek and Latin. Second time better.
Thanks man. Appreciate your work.
Thanks so much Harish
Wonderful explanation u deserve way more subs lol
Thanks a lot!
You could be the next Barcelona manager
They are sacking Valverde
completely agree about the terminology. people would be much more receptive if the phrasing was more appropriate. great vid!
Very true, I'm sure with time everyone will accept it
Good explanation and I like how you pointed out the xG as related to the CL final. Even though I'm a Liverpool fan, I felt that the early penalty led to a less than compelling game based on what the Reds chose to do with that lead.
That united XPoints from second to sixth gave me chills how accurate it was
Wow! This was enlightening! I especially like the real-world application using City, Chelsea, and United.
Thanks so much i really needed this
No problem Ali
Great Explanation! Which website do you guys use to find the xG values and use in your videos?
understat is a great resource
i needed this vid lmao
Awesome video, this!
Thanks David
You sound like someone who comes from the southern part of Africa, S.A, Swaziland, or maybe Botswana? either way this is top notch.
Complicated but noice video
I have a question. Is the narrator of the Football Made Simple from South Africa? :3
100TH like 🔥 I like Football made sim
Can you do a video comparing the 2019/20 premier league season of xG to xP and compare it to how many goals they scored, let in, and points received? As a Chelsea fan, I know that will go down, but just curious to see how bad it actually is lmao. We've missed so many chances and so many good chances. Not to mention we missed that pass right before the great chance so many times due to lack in quality of the pass...utter rediculous. Lol
Nice analysis.... Keep up the great work 😍😍
I thought these stats were useless but you've changed my mind! Great info in this video and what a cool fake accent you have bro 😉🤘🤘
xOC (Expected Opinions Changed)
@@FootballMadeSimple xKpM (Expected kyle's per monster)
Ur vids are...👌
Fair play, good explanation 👏
What a great video
great video!
what APP do you recommend for checking this stats
Is there possible somewhere to upload the football match and see the stats of Ex goals and Ex assists? or must do it manually? because understat is counting only top leagues..
how did you do it can you share with me , thank you
Where do you see the xGs and the xPs?
Excellent!!! Really!!! Only small note: try to talk a little bit slower!! Too much information per time unit... just a l. b. slower! Thank you very much!
Can you please make another video since sarri left and lampard is about to get the job can you analyse how will Chelsea be in next season
These worksheets are from anywebsite?
Is there a permanent link anywhere for the table at 7:11 ?
05:53 Zombie Apocalypse?
where can i get all this data?
xG is the biggest loads of bollocks in football.
Hope this helps 👍
But since better teams have better players wouldn’t you always expect them to outperform their xg and xpt? Great analysis though.
Takeaway: xG can help performance but its not the end goal of performance.
In current world of football, it's seems liverpool and excel in using xG better than others!
If xG is a probability or "chance quality" then why are the quoted numbers greater than 1?
Because, each shot has a number between 0 and 1, but for example if you take 9 shots, the numbers add up to get a result more than 1.
“If your defense or goalkeeper is saving to many goals it means that the defense needs improving” WTH?? Lol
It’s true. It means you’re conceding way too much and your defense has holes. It needs to improve as you shouldn’t expect GK to pull off mots-clés every game, it’s not sustainable nor realistic
If you have to research a football bet then you don't know & if you don't know then you shouldn't be betting
As someone whos only income is sports betting, I can tell you my research is exactly zero hours per week
Welp, ur lucky. That doesn't mean they're wrong. Ever heard of probability? Just because you got the lottery once doesn't mean you are good at it, you got lucky pal. The more research you put in to understand probability, the more likelier you are to get better results. I'd rather bet on getting a heads on a coin rather than a 1 on a die.
“Less than 0.6 goals in it” how are you calculating that from 2.15-1.58?
5:20 This is not true for all xG models.
why can nobody simply explain how xG is converted to xP
Expected goals is more of a fallacy. It is one of those things that sounds so nice and revolutionary but is not realistic. So who calculates the expected goals? Is it the fans? Every game should have an officially released expected goal; we should start taking expecting goals seriously only when that happens. The expected goal will be next to the ball possession, cards, corners and offsides stats in every game
It can never be perfect and is simply an estimate.. ball possession, cards, corners and offsides are stats which can be measured very accurately, but xG is simply an estimate so it can never be completely accurate, but just because something isn't perfect doesn't mean it can't be useful, you can still use it to compare different teams and players and get a result which is somewhat accurate if you account for errors.
Thought the entire premier league season not a single player has managed to get past him. I think this is more impressive then scoring (in my opinion) 38 goals in a weaker league. He completely transformed the Liverpool dafance from conceding the most goals out of the top six to the least, while leading them to compete with Man City in the title race and possibly got them a Champions League win. Don’t get me wrong I still think Messi is the Goat but this season Van Dajk has been the best playe and deserves the Ballondor
Klaudiusz Blue Firstly, La Liga is not weaker by any stretch of the imagination. If it wasn't a top league, why do players in big EPL teams flock to the Spanish league if they get an offer from a big team there? The Ballon d'Or is about individual contributions, and Messi scored 34 out of Barca's 90 goals in La Liga (nearly 38%). Liverpool only conceded one less goal than Manchester City, but still didn't win the EPL. Liverpool's front three, goalkeeper, and midfield have all played key roles in Liverpool's success. Barcelona is reliant on Messi thanks to the coach's tactics. Messi has made much more of an individual contribution to his team than Van Dijk. Face it, the EPL is not the best league in the world, and you're probably an English person who thinks their nation is the best at football, when it isn't. Your national team is shit, and your league is overrated. Please educate yourself before blabbering.
Siddhant Kadam I’m not English, while I do think the Epl was overrated in the past it is no longer in my opinion. I never said that La Liga is not a top league, I just said it is weaker then the English premier league. The significant measure of a players success is his impact on a team, in which Van Dijk has proven himself as he completely transformed the Liverpool defense. Liverpool is also relient on Van Dijk as Barcelona is on Messi due to the coach’s tactics. I do believe that the premier league is now the best league in the world due to the spread of talent they have and the leagues competition. Your comment seems more like an attack then a contradiction, so perhaps you should go educate yourself before blabbering.
Klaudiusz Blue If it's weaker, then how do the EPL's top players flock to La Liga when they get the opportunity? Why did Cristiano Ronaldo leave Ferguson's Man United? Why did Eden Hazard leave Chelsea, where he won multiple league titles? It's simple, it's because La Liga is the world's top league. Why have 5 of the past 7 winners of the Champions League come from Spain? Why are the players from La Liga always considered among the world's best? Why did the two greatest players of our time both play in Spain? Messi has completely transformed Barcelona, becoming an instrumental part of their attack. Messi has always been a key and irreplaceable element in Barcelona, and without him, this season would have been even more of a train wreck than it was. Also, Liverpool's improved defense can also be put down to Alisson Becker. So, to sum it up, you are wrong about the Premier League being the world's best, and Van Dijk deserving the Ballon d'Or. Messi deserves it more than anyone else. Oh, and copying my conclusion, what originality.
Siddhant Kadam like I said, La Liga used to be the best league in the world, but now it is the premier league in my opinion. Players in the premier league are also considered some of the the worlds best. One of the two greatest players of our time also played in the premier league. While Alisson has also greatly contributed to Liverpool, nobody apart from one player has managed to dribble past Van Dijk this whole season, which clearly shows his importance to this defence, it’s a lot harder to get a goal on target if you can’t get past the defender.
Klaudiusz Blue Are you blind? 5 of the past 7 UCL winners came from Spain, and you're telling me "tHe pREmIer lEAguE THe beST LEaGue in tHe WoRLd"! Also, I am aware CR7 played at Old Trafford, I listed that in my comment! Guess where he transferred from? Sporting CP! From the Portuguese league! I think you're confusing Portugal and Spain, so a quick lesson: Portugal and Spain are separate nations! And he left for Real when he was only 24! The best player in the world right now has played in Spain for all of his career (Messi). And you're telling me 38% of a team's goals isn't an individual contribution worthy of the Ballon d'Or! These statistics only speak for themselves! Salah, Kane, and Aguero are not the best players in the world. Messi is! Hazard is also among the world's best, and he's moving to Real! You're blind if you think the EPL is overrated! And you're blind if you think Messi doesn't deserve the Ballon d'Or!