Its like his other videos say to, the minimum growth we have had is all lead by huge mass immigration. We been in recession for 16 years without population growth . IE our living standards have been destroyed !
There's no manufacturing left. It's just a hyper financialised mess where the UK becomes a money laundering save haven. This doesn't benefit the British working class at all. It concentrates wealth into hands of the few in London whilst the rest of the country collapses into a poorer unhappy state. If these contradictions within society are not resolved then the crisis in the future will become too big to solve.
From my perspective, this highlights the importance of having a competitive advantage as investors. Merely mirroring the market strategies of others is insufficient in achieving optimal results. I am currently grappling with the decision to invest in the current market, as it presents both uncertainty and opportunity. Could you share your insights on this matter?
Indeed, the recent market downturn serves as evidence that a vast majority of individuals lacked a sufficient understanding of the underlying financial dynamics at play.
Such market uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my market judgements and decisions on rumours and here-says, got the best of me 2020 and had me holding worthless position in the market, I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of an advisor, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up $450k within 2 years, whether a bullish or down market, both makes for good profit, it all depends on where you’re looking.
@@foreverlaura-fq4eu I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your adviser? I'll be happy to use some help.
Finding financial advisors like Annette Marie Holt who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I didn't become financially independent until I was in my late 40's and I'm still in my 40's. In addition to having purchased my second home and earning money on a monthly basis through passive income,I've also achieved three out of five goals .l just hope this inspires someone to realize that it doesn't matter if you don't have any of these things yet,you can start today no matter your age.Change your future by investing! I made a rather big decision by investing in financial market..
Investing in many source of income that are independent of government paychecks is the prudent thing that everyone should be thinking about right now, especially given the global economic crisis. Good assets and digital currencies are still good investment at this time.
This is superb! Information, as a noob it gets quite difficult to handle all of this, and staying informed is a major cause, how do you go about this are you a pro investor???
As a beginner in this, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. Jaspreet Singh is also my trade analyst, he has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
Economists naively think that economic prosperity is a result of things like reasonable taxation, government spending, austerity etc. Like all we need to do is to encourage households to spend their savings, and we'll get prosperous, quickly growing economy again, and we'll get investments etc. In reality this may have dramatic short-term effects, but unlikely to have significant positive long-term impact. The only thing that matters is whether the economy can produce anything of value. And that's why the UK is stagnating - it's bloated, inefficient, pompous economy that is rapidly losing its relevance. And that's why no one is investing. This is not going to be fixed with clever spending adjustments or lower interest rates.
40 years of Thatcherism and Reaganism have decimated the manufacturing sectors in the UK and the USA. China's meteoric rise as a manufacturing hub has finally alerted the USA to this and fortunately, in his first term, Biden started addressing it. Meanwhile, in the UK, like a comedy duo, Starmer and Reeves are still cluelessly trying to balance the budget via Austerity, which is only going to make things worse.
Well, the core of the problem is inequality, we can not encourage households to spend savings if they have none. Most of total cash flows goes to extraordinarily wealthy who have very low spending rates and abysmal marginal propensity to spend, so even though wealthy do get a growing share of total cashflow to consumption of goods and services does not rise, Only the price of capital rise which further reinforce the accumulation of wealth in a positive feedback loop. In short, money isn't circulating around, it's being played ping-pong with by the rich only raising the price of assets futher.
@@kacperpiotrowski7239 Nope, inequality is one of those nonsense reasons too. People should get what they earned, and if they do - there will always be relatively high inequality. Trying to fix this with redistribution will only result in more inefficiency, demotivation and bureaucratic bloat. The problem we have is that money goes to people who haven't earned it. And yes, rich people don't consume as much, but they INVEST. However, they do not invest in Britain because British economy is not competitive because of its overall inefficiency and parasitic bloat. When investing in Britain you're not paying for something useful to be done, but you're paying to landlords, energy companies and single mothers so that each of them could have their small share of the pie.
@@nemurerumaboroshi I know Mucho texto but please read the TLDR and last two short sentneces. TLDR: I want to shift the tax burden, not redistribute wealth, that and incentivize the rich to spend more. The supply of labor grew significantly, but the demand for labor didn’t keep pace. Meanwhile, the government is inefficient, but public services are already underfunded. "People should get what they earned, and if they do, there will always be relatively high inequality." - Does income from dividends count as what I earn, then? People work more now, and there is more labor available than before, which leads to lower wages. "Trying to fix this with redistribution will only result in more inefficiency, demotivation, and bureaucratic bloat." I do not want to redistribute. I merely want to shift the tax burden away from the masses (for example, replacing council tax on households with a land tax on owners, levying a low tax on very high wealth thresholds to reduce taxes on income, or even having a wealth expiration tax above a certain threshold so the rich would spend more). "The problem we have is that money goes to people who haven't earned it." Agreed, especially with those who inherited lavish wealth. "Rich people don't consume as much, but they invest." Perhaps, but not in productive capacity, as the people who would benefit from it can't afford to buy the goods and services from such investments. Instead, money goes into the stock market or capital goods, causing asset inflation, which benefits the rich and harms everyone else. "The economy is not competitive because of its overall inefficiency and parasitic bloat." You're right about the inefficiency (and corruption), but there isn’t much bloat left to cut (except for town and country planning nonsense like the £9 billion just to plan a three-mile tunnel under the River Thames). Public services are already in terrible shape, and the UK government has a debt of over 100% of GDP. The only people with money now are the rich, so they must either be incentivized to consume more goods and services without giving them more money, or taxes must be rebalanced in favor of labor (higher capital gains tax, new taxes on land, and lower taxes on income, VAT, or national insurance). Respectfully, thank you for your opinion. I used to think exactly the same as you do before I graduated from university. Have a great day! I would recommend you check out Gary's Economics and the video "Britain is Dump!!"
Iv been working since college and went full time afterwards age 19, this was just after labour got a 3rd term in 2006. I cannot remember a "good time" in the last 18 years, Im mid 30's now and don't even own a property yet. Just feel's like fighting a losing battle living here.
The living standards / expectations of just a couple of decades ago are a thing of the past. I'm 37 and luckily got on the housing ladder just over a decade ago. I would have zero hope of being able to buy my own house now, despite decent pay rises. The next thing to be stripped from us will be the state pension. 'You will own nothing and be happy'.......
@@mrmeldrew693 Its funny we can send 800 million to Ukraine yet we can cut pensioners winter fuel. We live in a time of economic mismanagement, large corporations not paying taxes, and a complete dog currency worth about as much as the dirt we see everywhere. This isn't going to get better either, it's only getting worse. Your currency has to be strong for a strong economy.
I feel for you. I wish your family would have supported and funded you at 24 to get on the property ladder, now its too late and owning a property is like a luxury out of hands. With my parents, they helped me with the funds to find the deposit and got on the property ladder in 2016. Without the help, I wouldn't have been able to do it. Alot of Asian parents are like that, but the trouble is even they are finding it hard to reach for the deposit nowadays due to out lf reach market.
@@reheyesd8666just remember it's all loans to Ukraine so we benefit long term. I agree cutting winter fuel payments was a terrible idea and they should have brought in a means tested version to replace it. Ukraine for the UK is actually pretty good we show off UK weapons while also gaining massive investment from foreign firms. Puts us centre stage in the media across the world. You might think 800 million is a lot but it's a loan and the foreign investment coming this way is giant because of it. NATO needs to modernise over the next 10 years and so much will come to France Germany and the UK because of that. I think Leonardo pledged 400 million the other day into UK R&D. It's just so sad that we haven't got anything else to be centre stage for.
@@FreeWhilly734 You only get the loan back if Ukraine wins the war and so far the war is not looking good for Ukraine. You also have to realise Ukraine will only pay when the war is over. The problem with that is if Ukraine is annexed completely or vital industries/tax revenues are taken by Russia. The problem is a lot of this money will come because of government subsidies which means more debt. Companies are incentivized by the government because of the "free money" from the government. We have a massive risk in compounding the loan further, making any payments effectively useless as it will not cover the original compounded loans.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on assets with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Jane Nina Pickett who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
What exactly is Britain good at doing?...you cannot just dream up world beating industries, out of thin air, overnight! Investment is static, the quality of management is woeful and innovation is stuck in the slow lane!
@wattbenj standard innit next the celts and the saxon will be arguing who belong here. Divide and conquer plan working to perfection while these elites and governments make off with all of our money . Great time to be alive ! Sure the romans were doing this 2000 years ago
What’s happening is that it’s more lucrative not to work than work. Being taxed almost 50 percent on my income tells you that it wasn’t worth studying, investing in future or working hard. Most productive people are planning to leave the country if only they can. Soon will be paying 10 percent tops on my entire income. In another country.
Income isn't an indicator of productivity, as London's parasitic financial and legal services proves. Less than 2% of workers are taxed at ~50%.You're part of a rich minority with plenty of income, yet you still complain. 🙄 Try supporting a family, especially in London, on less than £50k, while paying only 20% tax. Let's see if you prefer that instead. If you're unhappy with your tax burden then leave. You won't be missed.
@@GonzoTehGreat I prefer to move somewhere where I’m not being robbed of my hard earned money. I still can’t afford a house where I live. If I were living elsewhere I would have built or bought a house 10 years ago. I would not stay in London if I were on 50k, in London you have to make over 100k to survive or just be unemployed and get free everything at the expense of those who pay 50 percent in taxes. Also, only 2 percent might be paying it because these are people who cannot form companies, so hard working educated professionals. You can earn millions and still pay yourself 50k while retaining everything in the limited company, that’s how it works. Or earn 4 milions and pay 22 percent if you are Rishi Sunak
Look at Canada we are at number 2 but GDP does not tell the entire story. We are in a major per capita recession but our GDP is up because of Subsaharan Africa levels of population growth due to immigration policy. GDP is a terrible metric
GDP is one of worse stat to use to establish real growth as GOV borrowings is so huge it is almost entirely all Growth in the economy since 2007. GROWTH LESS NATIONAL.DEBT = REAL CONTRACTION.
I think you mean that we need to consider both debt and growth. I'd prefer to be honest and include stuff like inflation, employment, median income etc, both historically and compared to G7, but until then we'll just cherry-pick whichever suits our argument and wonder why we never get anywhere.
An economy consists of human action, and the UK is changing its population thus the foundation of its economy. There's also an Emigration problem. The UK has the world's highest per capita emigration of the wealthy, defined as having $1 million in liquid assets, i.e. not including housing. 20 times higher than Russia, 14 times higher than China. The UK used to be the favourite destination for the wealthy. That has turned around drastically in recent years.
Thanks to Thatcher lack of imagination, the UK got Londongrad, when it could have had Londonpore. She set off the 'Big Bang' of financial services deregulation, but didn't take the next logical step: devolving monetary policy with a separate currency.
@@cocoacrispy7802 Well, now it has got Londonstan. UK economy was in a very bad shape before Thatcher. Similar problem as the EU has today with obsolete industries and poor infrastructure. And the tax pressure actually increased while Thatcher was PM, and it never helps when the incompetent cleptocratic political mafia steals a larger chunk of what their subjects are creating.
The increasing cost of the NHS is because of the rise in metabolic diseases - heart disease, cancer, diabetes etc - because of the worsening in diet because of ultra processed food. Easy way to fix NHS and deficits is simply to tax it. Tax refined seed oils, additives, fructose syrups and so on. Sometimes really big problems are easy to fix with imagination and knowledge.😊
Agreed. Also, and few are talking about this yet, the exponential rise in electromagnetic radiation from which I suffer. We know that it affects rats, not many folk are keen on brain dissection to see how much it affects us:)
The only thing my backlog of savings is going to will be emergency spending or early payments to my mortgage. The inflated cost of housing is whats dragging down spending, more of people's income is tied up with mortgage payments or criminally inflated rents. Restrict buy to lets to only properties which are in an unlivable condition and force the landlords to actually increase the housing supply by bringing them up to standard or building housing themselves.
Housing prices makes the bubble economy very obvious. In the olden days a family home was built out of timber in a year. But now it costs 10 years of median wages to buy the median apartment (in Sweden). With the 10% of the world population that is the West now being marginalized and self-isolating, count on dramatic loss of standard of living and especially the loss of buying power of bubble wealth like stocks and house "values". Check out the GDP adjusted for purchasing power parity and compare it with the nominal GDP to get a rough estimate of the general size of the unsustainable bubble illusion. In PPP, Russia has the world's 4th largest GDP ahead of Japan and Indonesia. Then comes Germany on 7th place, but they will fall to 9th place by 2030 when Brazil and Turkey(!) have grown larger, according to the estimates of the World Bank. And the UK is already a smaller economy than Mexico. Western Europe is no longer wealthy, but europeans fail to accept this fact. So no cure is to be expected.
@@bjorntorlarsson your house prices, rental or buying are lower than here in Denmark, but our wages are higher. so it's difficult to work out who is the luckiest. But one thing is for sure, UK housing is hair raising compared to ours.
@@edwardbernthal160That's why we shouldn't compare costs directly between different countries, as it's the causal factors that matter. The UK suffers from a shortage of affordable housing, especially in urban areas of high demand. This is due to decades of government negligence, because under Thatcherism, housing was "outsourced" to the private sector, who preferred to build for the richest.
Pushing growth with mass immigration just makes everyone a lot poorer. It increases land and property prices exponentially whilst reducing wages. This disenfranchises the working poor and stops young people from getting married having a home and producing children. The majority have falling living standards and an impoverished future. Working for nothing is not a great incentive for people to even bother to look for a job. Mass immigration is unsustainable and in every country that has been pushing it the answer is always the same mass unemployment and homelessness even in countries with loads of land such as Australia Canada and the USA.
Labour are transitioning a budget that was focusing on cuts for reducing tax liabilities, to a budget focusing on investments. A green economy is deflationary. Reduced energy costs will flow through to reduced mandatory household expenditures. Existing fossil fuel capital will depreciate in market resale value, along with other tethered assets(ICE cars,etc.) Funding the green transition @5% current interest rates is not ideal. Reeves needs to get the Pounds flowing through the green sector, and introducing more liquidity to the economy through deficit spending on investments can crowd out the private investments they're looking to leverage. The national wealth fund is looking for a positive spread in returns, and financing a deflationary project at 5% won't be happening. The banks are flush with bond returns and will have plenty of capital to get the projects underway at a more reasonable price when rates retrace. Refocusing a budget isn't an instant process with existing contracts and other commitments already entered into. Cutting off some schemes have already happened but there are others that might not be a cost benefit now to terminate. The budget really will be highly anticipated to see what Starmer/Reeves and co. are thinking/planning.
Trouble is most of Labours green initiatives just move the Carbon toll elsewhere overseas. For instance Milliband put solar farms on prime farmland so we may have to buy some food overseas, also they are seeing the closure of some of our refining capacity. This just moves refining overseas and means we have to buy refined prods rather than crude oil which is economically stupid but offshores carbon TAX !
The UK compares badly to Europe (varies alot by location):
Food: The UK is more expensive than most other countries for staple foods, cheese, pet food, sugar, and toothpaste. There are some exception eg. Nappies and frozen pizza. Electricity: The UK's electricity prices are higher than any other EU country. Housing: The UK's rental markets are among the most expensive in Europe.
This guy loves banging on about austerity. According to the treasury and ons public spending rose every year since 2010. No government has ever reduced public spending in real terms not even thatcher. It does pose the question where did the money go
People need to stop following misleading monthly / quarterly metrics, which only leads to short termism. Instead, examine how an economy perfoms over several years to reveal relevant trends. It's only in the last few years that the consequences of the Austerity policies of the last decade have come to light. In 2011-16, when the Cameron-Osborne govt were making the spending cuts which led to the current crisis, this wasn't opposed by most economists, who were too focused on the short term.
Revenue future going down with the highest tax ever 😂😂😂I am waitin for one special training than iam gone. Back to Germany... Iam waiting since 2007 to get better in the UK... In Germany. Sick pay full pay for 2Month, 31 days holiday.. Healthcare working.... 😂😂 Xmass pay, holiday pay.... Tax relieve for children, maried.... 😂Food cheaper, beer 24 bottle 10euro... 😂😂Sitting in a glasshouse with stones in the hand 😂😂😂
@economicshelp Tejvan, thanks for another informative video. What is your opinion about the importation of large amounts of unskilled, poorly educated, labour? It's my impression that companies tend to invest less in R&D etc, and so productivity stagnates. It is only an impression but I would be interested in your opinion, thanks.
@economicshelp thanks for your reply. You mentioned in the video about public sector investment, this 8/2024 news won't help the situation: "The Labour government has shelved £1.3bn of funding promised by the Conservatives for technology and artificial intelligence projects, putting the future of the UK’s first next-generation supercomputer in doubt." 🤦♂️ smh
@@everest9707They're making the same mistake as Cameron-Osborne, by trying to balance the budget instead of growing the economy, which isn't going to work.
@GonzoTehGreat definitely. Productivity is imo key to getting us out of this mess. The particular funding that I mention being cut, is also an area where the UK had an advantage.
Useful chart on tax revenue as a % of GDP but why once again is China not included given its huge economic footprint? I understand that tax in China is relatively low but it is never included in these charts.
We are shown a chart comparing "Growth in Average Wages 2010-2022" in the OECD countries. But what is meant by "Average Wages"? Does that mean lumping top earners in with the working poor? If so that risks greatly skewing the reality especially in highly unequal countries like the UK. Also, why is China never included in these figures? Could it be that it's rising incomes could embarrass the West?
The UK economy in 2024 is characterized by high debt, weak growth, stagnant wages, and ongoing inflationary pressures, making it one of the most challenging fiscal environments the country has faced since the 1950s. These problems will require difficult decisions about taxes, public spending, and economic reforms. So much for taking back control and I wonder how sovereignty is going to solve these problems . Brexit an economic catastrophe that no amount of propaganda and lies will ameliorate, I’ve been saying this for years.
I saw a video the other day that said UK GDP in 2007 was 3.6T. US GDP in 2007 was 14.6T. US GDP now (2024) = 29.5T (double) UK GDP now (2024) = 3.6T (no change) How can an economy be in a boom stage when it hasn't grown at all in 17 years? Wages haven't grown either so the average British person is much poorer than their western counterparts. 20 years ago this wasn't true at all. And this coincides with the failing of the NHS, and riots in the streets over immigration and cost of living. It's truly a shocking development I did not expect out of the UK. Brexit did quite a number on you guys.
@@chanceriordan its a big part of it. The UK's negotiating positions on trade have become non-existent being sandwiched between the EU and the US who now just deal directly with each other. Financial services in London are fleeing to other capitals because the "gateway to Europe" isn't true anymore so a company who wants a foothold in Europe will go directly to Europe as the UK isn't a part anymore. Obviously other factors contributed to this including conservative government for 14 years, and falls in private investment, but whatever the reasons, it needs to be reversed because life will become unaffordable for most if this keeps up.
@@michaelwolf9400 It will not be reversed. Starmer made it pretty clear that it's not happening. I would be more focused on stopping the tsunami of illegal migrants, which has overwhelmed NHS. The UK is quickly becoming a third world country at this rate.
Only because of the depreciation of the pound due to brexit. The gdp per capita ppp in 2008 was 37k while in 2023 was 57k. Also the uk doesn’t deficit spends like the US did
Britain has so many assets acquired over the 200+ years of empire. Surely gradual disposal of this wealth would help decrease the budget deficit and give the economy a boost !
10:36 I don't know why the British are constantly obsessing over the German economy. Yes, prices have risen by 20% here too, but so have wages, by 24%, and even before that I was earning significantly more with cheaper living costs than a Brit in the same job. For the UK, Germany is the second most important trading partner after the US, but for Germany, Britain is not so important, is not even among the top 10 most important trading partners.
British roads are full of BMWs Jags RangeRovers Teslas. £300,000 houses going up on every bit of spare land. McDonalds opening on every street corner, the drive thru is always busy. Britain is booming. The supermarkets are full of luxury food. Massive gains in living standards since the 1970s when Britain wasn't like this.
Inflation may have fallen but costs haven't dropped and house prices still rising & rents still rising. Many have seen wages still below rising prices and for many wages have stagnated. Many are not just poor but experiencing high deprivation ie unable to afford basics such as food, and clothing,
Government failures have created a low skills, low wage economy, facilitated by the eu free movement policy, many relying on government top up. We have this for decades now
The real scandal is laid bare in that OECD wage growth chart. How have unions, politicians and economists not made more fuss about zero real wage growth since the 2010s? Did anyone else notice how it was basically just uk and Italy with awful wage growth? The US, France and Germany all did many times better. Seems pretty clear that people aren’t going to spend money if they’re paying 2024 prices with 2010s wages.
Something that people won't ever get their head around is just how much money the top 1% have in our country, you can't make anything good for the working class without it being possible to exploit by those who have the ability to do so.
investment at 18%. Back in the 70s it ran at about 23% and GDP growth was around 3%. Then Lawson destroyed it by removing capital allowances. Hunt put them back but it will take a long time to show up in the real economy.
Why are investors waiting for the August unemployment report? The government already published in July that the unemployment rate fell year on year from 4.4% to 4.2%. So that should be enough information for the investors that everything is fine. Except, when I ignored the government published statistics and rather went by what's happening on the ground in society, I noticed that the number of people claiming benefits has been rising drastically this year, it is currently on a par to the 2008 financial crisis, only surpassed by the COVID Lockdown in the past 27 years. I'll leave it to you, to fill in the gaps and know what to see in the August employment report assuming it's compiled accurately. If not you can head to the ONS to obtain information about the claimant count. I really wonder how someone reports the unemployment rate to be decreasing when the number of people claiming unemployment benefits is racing upwards! Funny thing is Economists like myself will always be ignored in society because I didn't go to Oxford. The basics remains the basics regardless.
For anybody out there that sees life through the same lens as me. It's common sense that the economy will be unable to grow infinitely because there is an innovation possibility frontier, meaning there is a limit to human ingenuity and hence economic growth. Unfortunately, we have hit that frontier and will continue to only experience growth rates between 0.1% - 0.3% before a major life extinction event which I have calculated to occur between 2050 - 2100. You know you have hit that frontier, when the only way to achieve any further meaningful economic growth ( sustained economic growth rate at least twice the rate of population growth rate indicating real gdp per capita is increasing) going forward is to replicate the intelligence of a human via AI of which I don't even want to write on. For those who are bold enough to hear the truth, the world is coming to an end all the signs are there to see. The world has failed to meet any targets for reducing carbon emissions. Extinction of life happens at around 700 - 800 ppmv, we're currently at around 425 ppmv. I think the proponents for climate change, should be advertising the need for climate change from the perspective of how close we are to extinction, then it makes sense to people
Well that's not true. We have plenty of coal, iron and oil. Agriculture, can absolutely increase significantly the Netherlands is an example of this. Our policy makers choose not to use the resources, they opted for mass deindustrialisation and to import everything and become a service led economy. It was a huge mistake which has ruined this country.
"fiscal rules which are of debatable value". Really? So just borrow as much as we like? Does anybody wonder how we got in this position in the first place?
"spare capacity". Thats like saying the collective states of the former Yugoslavia have the same "spare capacity" and should record some rapid growth in the future all because they used to be a powerful economy. Lets face it the UK has no economic strategy. You see no actual plan from any administrations regarding what industries they really wish to develop and how they would do so.
The UK economy hasn’t rebounded just yet given the sluggish economic growth in terms of real GDP. Households are still suffering from lingering inflation and appalling public services most notably the creaking NHS.
Reeves does not seem to have heard of Keynes. Though you put the idea more eloquently. Treasury orthodoxy appears to be very similar to the World Bank's rather right wing model for which they have been somewhat criticised. It is Interesting that the EU Draghi Finance report seemed to be very much more Keynesian. I doubt it will be implemented. Politicians seem very stuck in the mud when it comes to fiscal policy, or are they all under the thumbs of the Treasury Mandarins? Thanks superb video. Is the Dreghi report worth covering?
I'm in my 30s still live with my parents and I struggle on a daily basis to wonder why people are still working for minimum wage jobs where over 50% of their paycheck (if they're lucky enough to be sharing) to live in some dank shitter built 80 years ago.
my main problem is a lot of my left wing friends are just saying labour ain’t doing anything but labour in 1997 saved before spending and so we haven’t given this new government any time to do anything before criticism
US currently spends 18 % of GDP on health so the UK spending 14% in 2070 isn't bad at all.Germany, France etc all spend presently (2021) a higher proportion of GDP than UK,12.9% and 12.3% respectively.
@@GonzoTehGreat Why not a comparison? We are being told that 17% of GDP on healthcare is a bad thing in 50 years time. This is simply b/S. The US spends 18% on their health care now and yet their economy is one of the best performing economies in the OECD. The UK spends 9% now and their economy is one of the weakest over the last ten years.
@@erongi233 _"We are being told that 17% of GDP on healthcare is a bad thing in 50 years time."_ Any 50 year projection is BS. Nobody can accurately predict 10 years ahead, never mind 50! The NHS is currently underfunded, because of a decade of austerity under the Conservatives, so healthcare spending needs to increase, but this won't improve things, just prevent them from becoming worse. The NHS needs reforming (NOT privatizing!) to improve. The UK's neighbors across the channel, in NW Europe, have better healthcare systems which they could learn from. Unfortunately, it's politically a "hot potato" to even discuss such changes, especially as successive governments used reform as a cover to carry out ideologically motivated privatization. _"The US spends 18% on their health care now and yet their economy is one of the best performing economies in the OECD."_ Are you implying a correlation between their healthcare spending and their economy? If so, you're mistaken. The US economy is more productive DESPITE poor domestic healthcare policy, because of high-skilled immigration and R&D investment. US healthcare spending is higher because medical companies can charge whatever they want. If you compare healthcare OUTCOMES you will find that the USA is WORSE than comparable European countries, despite spending more (per person).
@@GonzoTehGreat I dont know what you are arguing with me for.Some official idiot writes or implies that 17% of GDP spent on healthcare is a bad thing. I was replying to this that you can have an economy,the US,with 18% spent on healthcare,and yet that economy is one of the best in the world. Could you argue with whoever made the ludicrous statement? Not with me.
I have got poorer year on year since 2008. As I look at my country I see it sliding towards becoming a 💩hole. It’s political class clueless and incompetent.
Yes, people like Nigel. They can give us simple solutions to all these problems. Of course those with a brain can see through it, and know very well that garage can say whatever he likes to appeal to a certain group, knowing he never actually needs to deliver anything.
What are these "fiscal rules" we keep hearing. Can't they be changed? Why would a new government follow "fiscal rules" of the previous failed government, didn't those "rules" lead to the current nightmare?
Perhaps people have reached a point of not needing to buy endless crap on credit to be happy? In some what way forced to by having less to spend year on year. So will we go back to people endlessly buying stuff on credit, with the previous few years at the back of their mind?
Governments plan in a nutshell. Red or blue. Grow the state✅ (Ensure those people keep voting for the 2 party system) Make people poorer to pay for it✅ Get more votes from people benefiting from welfare✅ Ensure multinationals hire more and more people whilst avoiding UK tax✅ Make sure your mates own the multinationals to pretend ‘employment numbers are up’✅✅ Repeat till everyone either is employed by the state, or dependant on it 🔁
GDP has become a useless metric to me, the only people that benefit from it are the top 1%, Per capita means much more to the average person and it is terrible.
To be or not to be… an upfront Davos Karl Schwab engineered legalist LOBOT (Lobotomised Humanoid) or front & centre British Progressive democratic parliamentary socialist?. That is the Labour Party’s Question Sir Kier Starmer
I do like your graphic rich analysis. I may not always agree on your conclusions, but I do enjoy your videos. One aspect of national success you don’t cover is the importance stability plays in investment and development confidence. This new Labour government is proving how important economic and civil stability is to fostering a sense of business confidence to grow the economy organically from commercial and international partners. Starmer seems determined to undermine this premise and frighten away those that can leave with their money and put off anyone willing to inwardly invest in Britain for the next half decade.
Labour's Net zero policies will mean rising energy costs for years to come. You cannot have a booming real economy with high energy costs. The only thing keeping GDP afloat is endless immigration and government (debt) spending. However GDP per head is falling meaning the majority are getting poorer and services (e.g. NHS, housing) are failing to deliver because the population is increasing without the necessary investment. The Tories were useless but Labour will be a disaster.
How will net zero energy policies keep energy prices high? The cost to actually build generation transmission infrastructure is a small fraction of current energy bills. The vast majority of high energy prices is driven by the cost of gas and other fossil fuelled generation. The issue with our energy market is consumers always pay what the most expensive generator on the network for a given time costs, not the average across the generation costs. If we can keep pushing cheap renewable energy to the extent we no longer need support from gas generators, then wholesale energy prices will drop drastically
@@jacksmith5399there is no such thing as 'cheap renewable energy'. A wind farm costs about 4x as much to build as an equivalent power station. And that wind farm only works when there is enough wind, the energy it produces when the grid doesn't need it is wasted,, when the grid needs extra supply it can't be turned on. At these latitudes Solar is only efficient in the summer. If the UK gets a cloudy high pressure during the winter we would have to import our energy from Europe, assuming they have and available energy left to export.
Govt needs to incentivise productivity at all costs!!!!! Cut the red tape and all the bureaucracy, incentivise businesses is key!!!! Drop the capital gains tax and provide start up loans just like they do student loans.
Be realistic. This is Britain. They will do the absolute opposite. Their plan? Bigger state✅ Poorer people✅ all dependant on the state. = more voters supporting policies of welfare.
@@bryangeake5826 rubbish, the economy was on the slide before leaving the EU... also all the latest data shows that the EU is in decline..why jump back onto a sinking ship..
We haven't had an economy since 2008, and that's the entire problem.
Its like his other videos say to, the minimum growth we have had is all lead by huge mass immigration. We been in recession for 16 years without population growth . IE our living standards have been destroyed !
Thanks for this simple fact which completely tears down all the narratives of the past 15 years
@@wattbenjMore like 1978...
Even earlier since Edward Heath and Wilson and not helped by Thatcher
There's no manufacturing left. It's just a hyper financialised mess where the UK becomes a money laundering save haven. This doesn't benefit the British working class at all. It concentrates wealth into hands of the few in London whilst the rest of the country collapses into a poorer unhappy state. If these contradictions within society are not resolved then the crisis in the future will become too big to solve.
From my perspective, this highlights the importance of having a competitive advantage as investors. Merely mirroring the market strategies of others is insufficient in achieving optimal results. I am currently grappling with the decision to invest in the current market, as it presents both uncertainty and opportunity. Could you share your insights on this matter?
Indeed, the recent market downturn serves as evidence that a vast majority of individuals lacked a sufficient understanding of the underlying financial dynamics at play.
Such market uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my market judgements and decisions on rumours and here-says, got the best of me 2020 and had me holding worthless position in the market, I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of an advisor, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up $450k within 2 years, whether a bullish or down market, both makes for good profit, it all depends on where you’re looking.
I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your adviser? I'll be happy to use some help.
@@foreverlaura-fq4eu I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your adviser? I'll be happy to use some help.
Finding financial advisors like Annette Marie Holt who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I didn't become financially independent until I was in my late 40's and I'm still in my 40's. In addition to having purchased my second home and earning money on a monthly basis through passive income,I've also achieved three out of five goals .l just hope this inspires someone to realize that it doesn't matter if you don't have any of these things yet,you can start today no matter your age.Change your future by investing! I made a rather big decision by investing in financial market..
Investing in many source of income that are independent of government paychecks is the prudent thing that everyone should be thinking about right now, especially given the global economic crisis. Good assets and digital currencies are still good investment at this time.
To be honest, investing rightly today can save you a whole lot of stress in the nearest future.
This is superb! Information, as a noob it gets quite difficult to handle all of this, and staying informed is a major cause, how do you go about this are you a pro investor???
All thanks to Jaspreet Singh with his investment advice, at least I can afford a good home and also have to retire early.
As a beginner in this, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable.
Jaspreet Singh is also my trade analyst, he has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
Economists naively think that economic prosperity is a result of things like reasonable taxation, government spending, austerity etc. Like all we need to do is to encourage households to spend their savings, and we'll get prosperous, quickly growing economy again, and we'll get investments etc. In reality this may have dramatic short-term effects, but unlikely to have significant positive long-term impact. The only thing that matters is whether the economy can produce anything of value. And that's why the UK is stagnating - it's bloated, inefficient, pompous economy that is rapidly losing its relevance. And that's why no one is investing. This is not going to be fixed with clever spending adjustments or lower interest rates.
40 years of Thatcherism and Reaganism have decimated the manufacturing sectors in the UK and the USA. China's meteoric rise as a manufacturing hub has finally alerted the USA to this and fortunately, in his first term, Biden started addressing it. Meanwhile, in the UK, like a comedy duo, Starmer and Reeves are still cluelessly trying to balance the budget via Austerity, which is only going to make things worse.
Well, the core of the problem is inequality, we can not encourage households to spend savings if they have none. Most of total cash flows goes to extraordinarily wealthy who have very low spending rates and abysmal marginal propensity to spend, so even though wealthy do get a growing share of total cashflow to consumption of goods and services does not rise, Only the price of capital rise which further reinforce the accumulation of wealth in a positive feedback loop.
In short, money isn't circulating around, it's being played ping-pong with by the rich only raising the price of assets futher.
@@kacperpiotrowski7239 Nope, inequality is one of those nonsense reasons too. People should get what they earned, and if they do - there will always be relatively high inequality. Trying to fix this with redistribution will only result in more inefficiency, demotivation and bureaucratic bloat. The problem we have is that money goes to people who haven't earned it. And yes, rich people don't consume as much, but they INVEST. However, they do not invest in Britain because British economy is not competitive because of its overall inefficiency and parasitic bloat. When investing in Britain you're not paying for something useful to be done, but you're paying to landlords, energy companies and single mothers so that each of them could have their small share of the pie.
@@nemurerumaboroshi
I know Mucho texto but please read the TLDR and last two short sentneces.
TLDR: I want to shift the tax burden, not redistribute wealth, that and incentivize the rich to spend more. The supply of labor grew significantly, but the demand for labor didn’t keep pace. Meanwhile, the government is inefficient, but public services are already underfunded.
"People should get what they earned, and if they do, there will always be relatively high inequality." - Does income from dividends count as what I earn, then? People work more now, and there is more labor available than before, which leads to lower wages.
"Trying to fix this with redistribution will only result in more inefficiency, demotivation, and bureaucratic bloat." I do not want to redistribute. I merely want to shift the tax burden away from the masses (for example, replacing council tax on households with a land tax on owners, levying a low tax on very high wealth thresholds to reduce taxes on income, or even having a wealth expiration tax above a certain threshold so the rich would spend more).
"The problem we have is that money goes to people who haven't earned it." Agreed, especially with those who inherited lavish wealth.
"Rich people don't consume as much, but they invest." Perhaps, but not in productive capacity, as the people who would benefit from it can't afford to buy the goods and services from such investments. Instead, money goes into the stock market or capital goods, causing asset inflation, which benefits the rich and harms everyone else.
"The economy is not competitive because of its overall inefficiency and parasitic bloat." You're right about the inefficiency (and corruption), but there isn’t much bloat left to cut (except for town and country planning nonsense like the £9 billion just to plan a three-mile tunnel under the River Thames). Public services are already in terrible shape, and the UK government has a debt of over 100% of GDP.
The only people with money now are the rich, so they must either be incentivized to consume more goods and services without giving them more money, or taxes must be rebalanced in favor of labor (higher capital gains tax, new taxes on land, and lower taxes on income, VAT, or national insurance).
Respectfully, thank you for your opinion. I used to think exactly the same as you do before I graduated from university. Have a great day!
I would recommend you check out Gary's Economics and the video "Britain is Dump!!"
@@kacperpiotrowski7239 Its a dump because we have had failed Socialist policies since 1997, that includes the Tories
Iv been working since college and went full time afterwards age 19, this was just after labour got a 3rd term in 2006. I cannot remember a "good time" in the last 18 years, Im mid 30's now and don't even own a property yet. Just feel's like fighting a losing battle living here.
The living standards / expectations of just a couple of decades ago are a thing of the past.
I'm 37 and luckily got on the housing ladder just over a decade ago. I would have zero hope of being able to buy my own house now, despite decent pay rises.
The next thing to be stripped from us will be the state pension.
'You will own nothing and be happy'.......
@@mrmeldrew693 Its funny we can send 800 million to Ukraine yet we can cut pensioners winter fuel.
We live in a time of economic mismanagement, large corporations not paying taxes, and a complete dog currency worth about as much as the dirt we see everywhere. This isn't going to get better either, it's only getting worse.
Your currency has to be strong for a strong economy.
I feel for you.
I wish your family would have supported and funded you at 24 to get on the property ladder, now its too late and owning a property is like a luxury out of hands.
With my parents, they helped me with the funds to find the deposit and got on the property ladder in 2016. Without the help, I wouldn't have been able to do it.
Alot of Asian parents are like that, but the trouble is even they are finding it hard to reach for the deposit nowadays due to out lf reach market.
@@reheyesd8666just remember it's all loans to Ukraine so we benefit long term. I agree cutting winter fuel payments was a terrible idea and they should have brought in a means tested version to replace it.
Ukraine for the UK is actually pretty good we show off UK weapons while also gaining massive investment from foreign firms. Puts us centre stage in the media across the world. You might think 800 million is a lot but it's a loan and the foreign investment coming this way is giant because of it. NATO needs to modernise over the next 10 years and so much will come to France Germany and the UK because of that. I think Leonardo pledged 400 million the other day into UK R&D.
It's just so sad that we haven't got anything else to be centre stage for.
@@FreeWhilly734 You only get the loan back if Ukraine wins the war and so far the war is not looking good for Ukraine. You also have to realise Ukraine will only pay when the war is over. The problem with that is if Ukraine is annexed completely or vital industries/tax revenues are taken by Russia.
The problem is a lot of this money will come because of government subsidies which means more debt. Companies are incentivized by the government because of the "free money" from the government.
We have a massive risk in compounding the loan further, making any payments effectively useless as it will not cover the original compounded loans.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on assets with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Jane Nina Pickett who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I found her outstanding and excellent resume when I made a research of her full names online. I count it a gift that I went over this remark.
I left 20 years ago and nothing would get me to come back
I came back nearly 20 years ago and I've regretted it ever since!
Where did you leave to?
SMART MAN.
You can leave all you like. It's global.
Ok Gary, thanks for that.
What exactly is Britain good at doing?...you cannot just dream up world beating industries, out of thin air, overnight! Investment is static, the quality of management is woeful and innovation is stuck in the slow lane!
The small amount of innovation there is, soon get sold off to a foreign buyer.
warhammer
Great video. Helps reinforce in my mind this country is a sinking ship and we need to get off it
You Anglo Saxons can go if needs be..... Us old school British Celts are happy weathering this out
@@DewiSant-o3y Ooh some more edgy divide and conquer
@wattbenj standard innit next the celts and the saxon will be arguing who belong here. Divide and conquer plan working to perfection while these elites and governments make off with all of our money . Great time to be alive ! Sure the romans were doing this 2000 years ago
@@DewiSant-o3y this is what you scots welsh cornish and Irish always wanted :D
@snozrick yep. Get off our land 😂
What’s happening is that it’s more lucrative not to work than work. Being taxed almost 50 percent on my income tells you that it wasn’t worth studying, investing in future or working hard. Most productive people are planning to leave the country if only they can. Soon will be paying 10 percent tops on my entire income. In another country.
and where would that be, cloud cuckoo land?
Income isn't an indicator of productivity, as London's parasitic financial and legal services proves.
Less than 2% of workers are taxed at ~50%.You're part of a rich minority with plenty of income, yet you still complain. 🙄
Try supporting a family, especially in London, on less than £50k, while paying only 20% tax. Let's see if you prefer that instead.
If you're unhappy with your tax burden then leave. You won't be missed.
@@edwardbernthal160 Central Europe. But I’m also considering Dubai.
@@GonzoTehGreat I prefer to move somewhere where I’m not being robbed of my hard earned money. I still can’t afford a house where I live. If I were living elsewhere I would have built or bought a house 10 years ago. I would not stay in London if I were on 50k, in London you have to make over 100k to survive or just be unemployed and get free everything at the expense of those who pay 50 percent in taxes. Also, only 2 percent might be paying it because these are people who cannot form companies, so hard working educated professionals. You can earn millions and still pay yourself 50k while retaining everything in the limited company, that’s how it works. Or earn 4 milions and pay 22 percent if you are Rishi Sunak
@@edwardbernthal160 plenty of places
Look at Canada we are at number 2 but GDP does not tell the entire story. We are in a major per capita recession but our GDP is up because of Subsaharan Africa levels of population growth due to immigration policy. GDP is a terrible metric
vote trump
Absolutely correct.GDP is no indicator for ordinary working class.
لیبر ہماری پارٹی ہے
GDP will naturally go up when inflation happens, rich getting richer. If we remove the top 1% from the GDP we'll see a clearer picture.
most of the people who move here dont even contribute. I was told endlessly that immigrants create jobs... well, where are all these promised jobs?
Labour pining their hopes on growth is some sort of joke.
GDP is one of worse stat to use to establish real growth as GOV borrowings is so huge it is almost entirely all Growth in the economy since 2007. GROWTH LESS NATIONAL.DEBT = REAL CONTRACTION.
I think you mean that we need to consider both debt and growth. I'd prefer to be honest and include stuff like inflation, employment, median income etc, both historically and compared to G7, but until then we'll just cherry-pick whichever suits our argument and wonder why we never get anywhere.
An economy consists of human action, and the UK is changing its population thus the foundation of its economy. There's also an Emigration problem. The UK has the world's highest per capita emigration of the wealthy, defined as having $1 million in liquid assets, i.e. not including housing. 20 times higher than Russia, 14 times higher than China. The UK used to be the favourite destination for the wealthy. That has turned around drastically in recent years.
Thanks to Thatcher lack of imagination, the UK got Londongrad, when it could have had Londonpore. She set off the 'Big Bang' of financial services deregulation, but didn't take the next logical step: devolving monetary policy with a separate currency.
@@cocoacrispy7802 Well, now it has got Londonstan. UK economy was in a very bad shape before Thatcher. Similar problem as the EU has today with obsolete industries and poor infrastructure. And the tax pressure actually increased while Thatcher was PM, and it never helps when the incompetent cleptocratic political mafia steals a larger chunk of what their subjects are creating.
Thanks for the good news.
@@doughsquidHoping the housing market might actually cool down
It's now the favourite destination of the 3rd world.
What a disaster.
The increasing cost of the NHS is because of the rise in metabolic diseases - heart disease, cancer, diabetes etc - because of the worsening in diet because of ultra processed food. Easy way to fix NHS and deficits is simply to tax it. Tax refined seed oils, additives, fructose syrups and so on. Sometimes really big problems are easy to fix with imagination and knowledge.😊
It's also population increase without a proportional increase in services that's helped to create the mess we're in.
I agree. Better a nanny state than early deaths.
Agreed. Also, and few are talking about this yet, the exponential rise in electromagnetic radiation from which I suffer. We know that it affects rats, not many folk are keen on brain dissection to see how much it affects us:)
tax it, who will that tax hurt the most, who buys ultra processed food?
There's also understaffing leading to high agency staff costs, along with probably too many managers and general wastage.
The only thing my backlog of savings is going to will be emergency spending or early payments to my mortgage. The inflated cost of housing is whats dragging down spending, more of people's income is tied up with mortgage payments or criminally inflated rents. Restrict buy to lets to only properties which are in an unlivable condition and force the landlords to actually increase the housing supply by bringing them up to standard or building housing themselves.
Housing prices makes the bubble economy very obvious. In the olden days a family home was built out of timber in a year. But now it costs 10 years of median wages to buy the median apartment (in Sweden). With the 10% of the world population that is the West now being marginalized and self-isolating, count on dramatic loss of standard of living and especially the loss of buying power of bubble wealth like stocks and house "values".
Check out the GDP adjusted for purchasing power parity and compare it with the nominal GDP to get a rough estimate of the general size of the unsustainable bubble illusion. In PPP, Russia has the world's 4th largest GDP ahead of Japan and Indonesia. Then comes Germany on 7th place, but they will fall to 9th place by 2030 when Brazil and Turkey(!) have grown larger, according to the estimates of the World Bank. And the UK is already a smaller economy than Mexico.
Western Europe is no longer wealthy, but europeans fail to accept this fact. So no cure is to be expected.
@bjorntorlarsson importing millions of unskilled, poorly educated, culturally opposite people does not help.
@@bjorntorlarsson your house prices, rental or buying are lower than here in Denmark, but our wages are higher. so it's difficult to work out who is the luckiest. But one thing is for sure, UK housing is hair raising compared to ours.
@@edwardbernthal160That's why we shouldn't compare costs directly between different countries, as it's the causal factors that matter.
The UK suffers from a shortage of affordable housing, especially in urban areas of high demand. This is due to decades of government negligence, because under Thatcherism, housing was "outsourced" to the private sector, who preferred to build for the richest.
@@GonzoTehGreat thank goodness I don't live in the UK. I have grand children there and they paint a grim picture of house buying.
Pushing growth with mass immigration just makes everyone a lot poorer. It increases land and property prices exponentially whilst reducing wages. This disenfranchises the working poor and stops young people from getting married having a home and producing children. The majority have falling living standards and an impoverished future. Working for nothing is not a great incentive for people to even bother to look for a job. Mass immigration is unsustainable and in every country that has been pushing it the answer is always the same mass unemployment and homelessness even in countries with loads of land such as Australia Canada and the USA.
The WEF insist on mass migration...it creates a brand new set of fresh consumers in each country...therefore more sales..higher revenue!
@@Guitar6ty correct.. and consider that a fragmented society is less productive...the breakdown of social cohesion is ruined.
I got out five years ago and haven’t looked back - it’s only going to get worse folks.
Good for you, traitor.
@@adblocker276 Lol what?
Where did you get out to?
me too.
Those graphs are very revealing.
Labour are transitioning a budget that was focusing on cuts for reducing tax liabilities, to a budget focusing on investments.
A green economy is deflationary. Reduced energy costs will flow through to reduced mandatory household expenditures. Existing fossil fuel capital will depreciate in market resale value, along with other tethered assets(ICE cars,etc.)
Funding the green transition @5% current interest rates is not ideal.
Reeves needs to get the Pounds flowing through the green sector, and introducing more liquidity to the economy through deficit spending on investments can crowd out the private investments they're looking to leverage.
The national wealth fund is looking for a positive spread in returns, and financing a deflationary project at 5% won't be happening. The banks are flush with bond returns and will have plenty of capital to get the projects underway at a more reasonable price when rates retrace.
Refocusing a budget isn't an instant process with existing contracts and other commitments already entered into. Cutting off some schemes have already happened but there are others that might not be a cost benefit now to terminate.
The budget really will be highly anticipated to see what Starmer/Reeves and co. are thinking/planning.
Trouble is most of Labours green initiatives just move the Carbon toll elsewhere overseas. For instance Milliband put solar farms on prime farmland so we may have to buy some food overseas, also they are seeing the closure of some of our refining capacity. This just moves refining overseas and means we have to buy refined prods rather than crude oil which is economically stupid but offshores carbon TAX !
The UK compares badly to Europe (varies alot by location):
Food: The UK is more expensive than most other countries for staple foods, cheese, pet food, sugar, and toothpaste. There are some exception eg. Nappies and frozen pizza.
Electricity: The UK's electricity prices are higher than any other EU country.
Housing: The UK's rental markets are among the most expensive in Europe.
This guy loves banging on about austerity. According to the treasury and ons public spending rose every year since 2010. No government has ever reduced public spending in real terms not even thatcher. It does pose the question where did the money go
It was, in real terms stagnant! Defense spending all but collapsed!
People need to stop following misleading monthly / quarterly metrics, which only leads to short termism. Instead, examine how an economy perfoms over several years to reveal relevant trends.
It's only in the last few years that the consequences of the Austerity policies of the last decade have come to light. In 2011-16, when the Cameron-Osborne govt were making the spending cuts which led to the current crisis, this wasn't opposed by most economists, who were too focused on the short term.
Revenue future going down with the highest tax ever 😂😂😂I am waitin for one special training than iam gone. Back to Germany... Iam waiting since 2007 to get better in the UK... In Germany. Sick pay full pay for 2Month, 31 days holiday.. Healthcare working.... 😂😂 Xmass pay, holiday pay.... Tax relieve for children, maried.... 😂Food cheaper, beer 24 bottle 10euro... 😂😂Sitting in a glasshouse with stones in the hand 😂😂😂
I can't wait in 40 years when this channel actually has good news to share lol
Good news doesn't attract views.
@economicshelp Tejvan, thanks for another informative video.
What is your opinion about the importation of large amounts of unskilled, poorly educated, labour?
It's my impression that companies tend to invest less in R&D etc, and so productivity stagnates.
It is only an impression but I would be interested in your opinion, thanks.
It has been a problem for a while a lack of vocationally trained workers.
@economicshelp thanks for your reply.
You mentioned in the video about public sector investment, this 8/2024 news won't help the situation: "The Labour government has shelved £1.3bn of funding promised by the Conservatives for technology and artificial intelligence projects, putting the future of the UK’s first next-generation supercomputer in doubt."
🤦♂️ smh
@@everest9707They're making the same mistake as Cameron-Osborne, by trying to balance the budget instead of growing the economy, which isn't going to work.
@GonzoTehGreat definitely.
Productivity is imo key to getting us out of this mess.
The particular funding that I mention being cut, is also an area where the UK had an advantage.
Useful chart on tax revenue as a % of GDP but why once again is China not included given its huge economic footprint? I understand that tax in China is relatively low but it is never included in these charts.
We are shown a chart comparing "Growth in Average Wages 2010-2022" in the OECD countries. But what is meant by "Average Wages"? Does that mean lumping top earners in with the working poor? If so that risks greatly skewing the reality especially in highly unequal countries like the UK.
Also, why is China never included in these figures? Could it be that it's rising incomes could embarrass the West?
The UK economy in 2024 is characterized by high debt, weak growth, stagnant wages, and ongoing inflationary pressures, making it one of the most challenging fiscal environments the country has faced since the 1950s. These problems will require difficult decisions about taxes, public spending, and economic reforms.
So much for taking back control and I wonder how sovereignty is going to solve these problems .
Brexit an economic catastrophe that no amount of propaganda and lies will ameliorate, I’ve been saying this for years.
Starmer: I forgot 79,000 quid in donations. Public: We don't trust you with the budget.
Very insightful thank you. It's nice to have an economic breakdown that is not politically focused
I saw a video the other day that said UK GDP in 2007 was 3.6T. US GDP in 2007 was 14.6T. US GDP now (2024) = 29.5T (double) UK GDP now (2024) = 3.6T (no change) How can an economy be in a boom stage when it hasn't grown at all in 17 years? Wages haven't grown either so the average British person is much poorer than their western counterparts. 20 years ago this wasn't true at all. And this coincides with the failing of the NHS, and riots in the streets over immigration and cost of living. It's truly a shocking development I did not expect out of the UK. Brexit did quite a number on you guys.
Brexit wasn't the problem.
@@chanceriordan its a big part of it. The UK's negotiating positions on trade have become non-existent being sandwiched between the EU and the US who now just deal directly with each other. Financial services in London are fleeing to other capitals because the "gateway to Europe" isn't true anymore so a company who wants a foothold in Europe will go directly to Europe as the UK isn't a part anymore. Obviously other factors contributed to this including conservative government for 14 years, and falls in private investment, but whatever the reasons, it needs to be reversed because life will become unaffordable for most if this keeps up.
The UK was in the EU for another decade after 2007, still had stagnant growth during that time, yet you still blame Brexit.
@@michaelwolf9400 It will not be reversed. Starmer made it pretty clear that it's not happening. I would be more focused on stopping the tsunami of illegal migrants, which has overwhelmed NHS. The UK is quickly becoming a third world country at this rate.
Only because of the depreciation of the pound due to brexit. The gdp per capita ppp in 2008 was 37k while in 2023 was 57k. Also the uk doesn’t deficit spends like the US did
Britain has so many assets acquired over the 200+ years of empire. Surely gradual disposal of this wealth would help decrease the budget deficit and give the economy a boost !
All the empire money was spent in the two world wars.
Sell the family silver?
Yeah, that's going to end well. 🤦
Have you ever heard of Gordon Brown's attempt at doing that?
10:36 I don't know why the British are constantly obsessing over the German economy. Yes, prices have risen by 20% here too, but so have wages, by 24%, and even before that I was earning significantly more with cheaper living costs than a Brit in the same job. For the UK, Germany is the second most important trading partner after the US, but for Germany, Britain is not so important, is not even among the top 10 most important trading partners.
British roads are full of BMWs Jags RangeRovers Teslas. £300,000 houses going up on every bit of spare land. McDonalds opening on every street corner, the drive thru is always busy. Britain is booming. The supermarkets are full of luxury food. Massive gains in living standards since the 1970s when Britain wasn't like this.
Inflation may have fallen but costs haven't dropped and house prices still rising & rents still rising. Many have seen wages still below rising prices and for many wages have stagnated. Many are not just poor but experiencing high deprivation ie unable to afford basics such as food, and clothing,
So you want even more government spending because that always works
Let’s not kid ourselves labour will destroy wats left of the UK.
it wasnt destroyed before?
@@dbz9393 as I said wats left of
excelletn video and delivery, but would be good to see the excellent graphs for longer, and not me pausing the video to read them
Government failures have created a low skills, low wage economy, facilitated by the eu free movement policy, many relying on government top up. We have this for decades now
No one has told you the uk is not in the EU?
Well if this is boom I’d hate to see what a recession looks like…
Know that and that is all you need to know.
The real scandal is laid bare in that OECD wage growth chart. How have unions, politicians and economists not made more fuss about zero real wage growth since the 2010s?
Did anyone else notice how it was basically just uk and Italy with awful wage growth? The US, France and Germany all did many times better.
Seems pretty clear that people aren’t going to spend money if they’re paying 2024 prices with 2010s wages.
Something that people won't ever get their head around is just how much money the top 1% have in our country, you can't make anything good for the working class without it being possible to exploit by those who have the ability to do so.
investment at 18%. Back in the 70s it ran at about 23% and GDP growth was around 3%. Then Lawson destroyed it by removing capital allowances. Hunt put them back but it will take a long time to show up in the real economy.
Why are investors waiting for the August unemployment report? The government already published in July that the unemployment rate fell year on year from 4.4% to 4.2%. So that should be enough information for the investors that everything is fine. Except, when I ignored the government published statistics and rather went by what's happening on the ground in society, I noticed that the number of people claiming benefits has been rising drastically this year, it is currently on a par to the 2008 financial crisis, only surpassed by the COVID Lockdown in the past 27 years. I'll leave it to you, to fill in the gaps and know what to see in the August employment report assuming it's compiled accurately. If not you can head to the ONS to obtain information about the claimant count. I really wonder how someone reports the unemployment rate to be decreasing when the number of people claiming unemployment benefits is racing upwards! Funny thing is Economists like myself will always be ignored in society because I didn't go to Oxford. The basics remains the basics regardless.
For anybody out there that sees life through the same lens as me. It's common sense that the economy will be unable to grow infinitely because there is an innovation possibility frontier, meaning there is a limit to human ingenuity and hence economic growth. Unfortunately, we have hit that frontier and will continue to only experience growth rates between 0.1% - 0.3% before a major life extinction event which I have calculated to occur between 2050 - 2100. You know you have hit that frontier, when the only way to achieve any further meaningful economic growth ( sustained economic growth rate at least twice the rate of population growth rate indicating real gdp per capita is increasing) going forward is to replicate the intelligence of a human via AI of which I don't even want to write on. For those who are bold enough to hear the truth, the world is coming to an end all the signs are there to see. The world has failed to meet any targets for reducing carbon emissions. Extinction of life happens at around 700 - 800 ppmv, we're currently at around 425 ppmv. I think the proponents for climate change, should be advertising the need for climate change from the perspective of how close we are to extinction, then it makes sense to people
He knows his onions this lad!
We have minimal mineral or agricultural assets. To afford to buy toilet paper we have to make and sell goods and services to other countries.
Well that's not true. We have plenty of coal, iron and oil. Agriculture, can absolutely increase significantly the Netherlands is an example of this. Our policy makers choose not to use the resources, they opted for mass deindustrialisation and to import everything and become a service led economy. It was a huge mistake which has ruined this country.
Steady for few years ,likeky to see a mini boom by end of 5 years parliamentary term
"fiscal rules which are of debatable value". Really? So just borrow as much as we like? Does anybody wonder how we got in this position in the first place?
"spare capacity". Thats like saying the collective states of the former Yugoslavia have the same "spare capacity" and should record some rapid growth in the future all because they used to be a powerful economy.
Lets face it the UK has no economic strategy. You see no actual plan from any administrations regarding what industries they really wish to develop and how they would do so.
The UK economy hasn’t rebounded just yet given the sluggish economic growth in terms of real GDP. Households are still suffering from lingering inflation and appalling public services most notably the creaking NHS.
Reeves does not seem to have heard of Keynes. Though you put the idea more eloquently.
Treasury orthodoxy appears to be very similar to the World Bank's rather right wing model for which they have been somewhat criticised.
It is Interesting that the EU Draghi Finance report seemed to be very much more Keynesian. I doubt it will be implemented. Politicians seem very stuck in the mud when it comes to fiscal policy, or are they all under the thumbs of the Treasury Mandarins?
Thanks superb video.
Is the Dreghi report worth covering?
I'm in my 30s still live with my parents and I struggle on a daily basis to wonder why people are still working for minimum wage jobs where over 50% of their paycheck (if they're lucky enough to be sharing) to live in some dank shitter built 80 years ago.
Schrödinger's economy
my main problem is a lot of my left wing friends are just saying labour ain’t doing anything but labour in 1997 saved before spending and so we haven’t given this new government any time to do anything before criticism
Pays to not work. Or tax avoidance. That's the problem we have.
US currently spends 18 % of GDP on health so the UK spending 14% in 2070 isn't bad at all.Germany, France etc all spend presently (2021) a higher proportion of GDP than UK,12.9% and 12.3% respectively.
Its well known the US gets scammed on health care
US is a bad example for comparison, as their healthcare is mostly privatised.
Also, it's outcomes that matter. Comparing just spending is pointless.
@@GonzoTehGreat Why not a comparison? We are being told that 17% of GDP on healthcare is a bad thing in 50 years time. This is simply b/S. The US spends 18% on their health care now and yet their economy is one of the best performing economies in the OECD. The UK spends 9% now and their economy is one of the weakest over the last ten years.
@@erongi233
_"We are being told that 17% of GDP on healthcare is a bad thing in 50 years time."_
Any 50 year projection is BS. Nobody can accurately predict 10 years ahead, never mind 50!
The NHS is currently underfunded, because of a decade of austerity under the Conservatives, so healthcare spending needs to increase, but this won't improve things, just prevent them from becoming worse.
The NHS needs reforming (NOT privatizing!) to improve. The UK's neighbors across the channel, in NW Europe, have better healthcare systems which they could learn from. Unfortunately, it's politically a "hot potato" to even discuss such changes, especially as successive governments used reform as a cover to carry out ideologically motivated privatization.
_"The US spends 18% on their health care now and yet their economy is one of the best performing economies in the OECD."_
Are you implying a correlation between their healthcare spending and their economy? If so, you're mistaken.
The US economy is more productive DESPITE poor domestic healthcare policy, because of high-skilled immigration and R&D investment.
US healthcare spending is higher because medical companies can charge whatever they want. If you compare healthcare OUTCOMES you will find that the USA is WORSE than comparable European countries, despite spending more (per person).
@@GonzoTehGreat I dont know what you are arguing with me for.Some official idiot writes or implies that 17% of GDP spent on healthcare is a bad thing. I was replying to this that you can have an economy,the US,with 18% spent on healthcare,and yet that economy is one of the best in the world. Could you argue with whoever made the ludicrous statement? Not with me.
Thanks
Boom or Bust ? Don't worry it'll soon be boom or bullshit ? You can decide which is the most likely.
£1 = $2 soon. GBP up up up
Boom to whom?…there’s always boom to those on top…
I have got poorer year on year since 2008. As I look at my country I see it sliding towards becoming a 💩hole. It’s political class clueless and incompetent.
Reform UK 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧 2029
🤮
They won't exist or or they'll mire in scandal and become irrelevant, bit like UKIP. Their MPs are already too busy with their other jobs anyway.
They just appeal to people who can’t critically think - hence Brexit.
Yes, people like Nigel. They can give us simple solutions to all these problems. Of course those with a brain can see through it, and know very well that garage can say whatever he likes to appeal to a certain group, knowing he never actually needs to deliver anything.
@@CupOfSweetTea garage 😂😂😂
What are these "fiscal rules" we keep hearing. Can't they be changed? Why would a new government follow "fiscal rules" of the previous failed government, didn't those "rules" lead to the current nightmare?
House the 3rd world become the 3rd world simple😢
STARMER can mean only one thing, that is FAST DECLINE PERMANENTE ....
No country can run double deficits economy for ever. UK will face hyperinflation or depression or both one day.
Perhaps people have reached a point of not needing to buy endless crap on credit to be happy? In some what way forced to by having less to spend year on year. So will we go back to people endlessly buying stuff on credit, with the previous few years at the back of their mind?
If only the govt would take the same approach as the post WW2 govt, Keynesian economics work!
Inflation would go through the roof
@@mikewatkinson6056 No because you balance the spending and wage growth with taxation.
Governments plan in a nutshell. Red or blue.
Grow the state✅
(Ensure those people keep voting for the 2 party system)
Make people poorer to pay for it✅
Get more votes from people benefiting from welfare✅
Ensure multinationals hire more and more people whilst avoiding UK tax✅
Make sure your mates own the multinationals to pretend ‘employment numbers are up’✅✅
Repeat till everyone either is employed by the state, or dependant on it 🔁
GDP has become a useless metric to me, the only people that benefit from it are the top 1%, Per capita means much more to the average person and it is terrible.
To be or not to be… an upfront Davos Karl Schwab engineered legalist LOBOT (Lobotomised Humanoid) or front & centre British Progressive democratic parliamentary socialist?. That is the Labour Party’s Question Sir Kier Starmer
Awesome thanks. Brilliant summary United Kingdom economy. Britain England London rejoin EU again like Italy.
Neither - under Labour it’s DOOOM!!! 😂😂
the only answer is to tax wealth
Dollar and all its isotopes currencies will lose its purchasing power.
Putin make us boom. 💥
Send more money to Ukraine 😅 they will get your money and buy luxury goods 😅
I do like your graphic rich analysis. I may not always agree on your conclusions, but I do enjoy your videos.
One aspect of national success you don’t cover is the importance stability plays in investment and development confidence. This new Labour government is proving how important economic and civil stability is to fostering a sense of business confidence to grow the economy organically from commercial and international partners. Starmer seems determined to undermine this premise and frighten away those that can leave with their money and put off anyone willing to inwardly invest in Britain for the next half decade.
remove neo labour, spend on national health and not war
Labour's Net zero policies will mean rising energy costs for years to come. You cannot have a booming real economy with high energy costs. The only thing keeping GDP afloat is endless immigration and government (debt) spending. However GDP per head is falling meaning the majority are getting poorer and services (e.g. NHS, housing) are failing to deliver because the population is increasing without the necessary investment. The Tories were useless but Labour will be a disaster.
How will net zero energy policies keep energy prices high? The cost to actually build generation transmission infrastructure is a small fraction of current energy bills. The vast majority of high energy prices is driven by the cost of gas and other fossil fuelled generation. The issue with our energy market is consumers always pay what the most expensive generator on the network for a given time costs, not the average across the generation costs. If we can keep pushing cheap renewable energy to the extent we no longer need support from gas generators, then wholesale energy prices will drop drastically
@@jacksmith5399there is no such thing as 'cheap renewable energy'.
A wind farm costs about 4x as much to build as an equivalent power station.
And that wind farm only works when there is enough wind, the energy it produces when the grid doesn't need it is wasted,, when the grid needs extra supply it can't be turned on.
At these latitudes Solar is only efficient in the summer.
If the UK gets a cloudy high pressure during the winter we would have to import our energy from Europe, assuming they have and available energy left to export.
A booming recession
Take london out the equation and were a second world nation at best
Moses Path
Govt needs to incentivise productivity at all costs!!!!! Cut the red tape and all the bureaucracy, incentivise businesses is key!!!! Drop the capital gains tax and provide start up loans just like they do student loans.
Be realistic. This is Britain.
They will do the absolute opposite.
Their plan?
Bigger state✅
Poorer people✅ all dependant on the state. = more voters supporting policies of welfare.
...and get back into the EU! This is the consequense of 'going small' again, post Imperial Britain on the slide again!
@@bryangeake5826 rubbish, the economy was on the slide before leaving the EU... also all the latest data shows that the EU is in decline..why jump back onto a sinking ship..
@@bryangeake5826 brexit has shown how irrelevant we are as a country nowadays
@@dbz9393 Correct!
Business as usual
It's a Brexit.
Indian techie couples and doctors minting money 🎉.
Doom 😱
Martin Sarah Clark Patricia Johnson Dorothy
Thomas Kimberly Clark Cynthia Martinez Dorothy
Cannot pronounce his "R's"
Young Frank Hernandez Eric Smith Frank
Socialist doom
economic of theft
Slump.
Thompson Margaret Thomas Susan Hall Linda
لیبر ہماری پارٹی ہے