So I ditched fossil fuel transportation 10 years ago And went off grid and now use 100% solar power for everything including transportation. I stopped eating meat in the 1990s and buy almost nothing new. I'm told that none of that matters and individual efforts have little to no effect. But the thing is I didn't do any of that to "Save the Planet" I did those things to save my money and my health.
1. If a couple billion people did as you have we would have a lot less emissions. So individuals do count. 2. If people like you took your philosophy and experience to work with you we would have a lot of corporations also making emission reduction / efficiency savings. 3. Yes you are correct, many global oligopolies have somehow convinced us that inefficient solutions are best just because it means more money for the ultra wealthy people.
@@skierpageExactly. I have heard so many of my progressive, environmentally concerned brethren defacto comment how useless it is for responsible individual action, how it's only governmental pressure on fossil fuel industry that will begin to turn things around. I think that stance completely absolves the responsibility of the citizen from their ability to make an impact, essentially washing their hands of any responsibility to conserve energy, patronize companies that act and produce environmental and globally sustainable products, etc. For just one conspicuous example, I have seen progressives in debates or talks or podcasts--even those I otherwise highly respect--( obviously paling in comparison to the clueless right or average American, but nevertheless equally responsible) cavalierly use plastic water bottles to be tossed in the trash rather than use glass, metal or even reusable plastic containers that need mere washing for reuse. That is an inexcusable level of irresponsibility that can easily be corrected, helping to reduce the firehouse of single use plastics that the environment is drowning in. Part of it is about practicing what one preaches, setting an example.
I did the same but I did want to save the planet. The best we can all do is vote for people in government that believe in climate change and who want policy to save the planet. Governments must reflect the goal to save the planet.
So, three things. 1. It apparently takes a lot more energy to make ice melt than it is to warm water. As sea ice is reduced, not only do we lose albedo, but a lot more energy than would have gone into heating up the ice will go into heating up the water, so the water's temperatures will increase faster and global warming will accelerate. 2. Recently, it's been estimated that we'll probably reach 2°C of warming by 2035. 3. Forest fires started emitting as much CO2 in the atmosphere as small countries. Because we didn't curb our own emissions fast enough, it seems like we've triggered several tipping points already (forest fires aside, methane emissions are soaring). I don't think that our carbon budget allows for 5 years of emission. I don't know if we even have a carbon budget anymore, if considering current tipping points we could already be over. I think that what we're likely to see in the future are more sudden jumps in global temperatures, like we faced these past two years. We had a big jump due in part to the decrease in NO2 emissions (termination shock), and in part because of el niño. If looking at the past few el niños, some of the temperature gains were permanent. We'll probably see two or three more el niños by 2035. Paul Beckwith often says that the changes are front-loaded. That is, most of the changes happen rapidly (on a geological scale), and then taper of. That means that we absolutely do not have as much time as we think we have, and need to hurry up.
It is far too late to consider any change could be made at scale. We exist in a complex world, so we will not be able to afford living in the next decade. Insurance companies have the best math & data money can buy.
@@Stupidityindex Yes, I agree. I think that most of us will die before the end of this century, and that global collapse is already underway. With that said, we should still try as best as we can to minimize the damage. It could make the difference between some species going extinct or not, and that includes our own.
The predictions aren't normal or reliable because the prevailing winds aren't prevailing but following the cyclic nature of magnetic reversal and galactic ripple.
@@DrCorvid Is galactic ripple like raspberry ripple? Has someone spiked yours? Scientists don't know everything, but they know way more than you probably imagine.
@@DrCorvid Found something about Doug Vogt on a blog. Looks like total pseudoscience and numerology. There's no mechanism for Earth's rotation to stop during a nova, and if it every did stop, as Randall Monroe wrote, the remaining angular momentum of the atmosphere would be enough to fry everything. A text book is something you can learn established facts from, not barking hallucinations.
No Dude, this is crap. The Oceans, severley biased to the Atlantic hold close to 50% of that global warming heat [Levitus et al 2012], and that heat is below 40'N. Yet this blatant fact is 100% missing despite you 100% need that information to get a clear picture of this legion of lies and assumptions. Go look at a chart for global warming on google. She says one thing about global warming from 1750s (Watt developed his the steam engine was developed in 1761) but the actual chart will show the increase did not begin till 1900s. From 1945 the global mean temperature decended for 20 years so that by 1963 the sea ice off Dunkirk extended 5 kms into the English Channel, not spiked from the 1950s. She shows dramatic red shading over the industrialised north without stating what it is, yet the global warming thing is 98% an OCEAN heating event which per volume if 3,250 times greater. This is as reliable as Putin saying the Ukraine invaded Russia, or as misleading as the steam cooling towers belching out steam, trying to convince you it is smoke and co2. It is dangerous shite.
I work for University of Colorado and I studied the Plankton cycle from the melting sea ice north of Alaska from 2014 to 2019. We started measurements in late summer (July August) initially to allow the ice to melt enough to catch the plankton bloom period but by 2019, we had to go in May because the ice was melting so fast. In May 2019, we had to fly about 100 km north of Alaska before we encountered a significant amount of sea ice. There was still fast ice on the coast of Alaska but once out a few km, the sea was fee from ice. The other consequence is the lack of ice causes waves to be stronger and erode the coast of Utqiagvik. Thus, they had to rebuild water barriers to protect the town.
l....well A horse walks into a bar... says... First they called it "Global Warming"... well nobody believed that..... sooo they changed the name to "Climate Change" well nobody believed that either.. sooo they ran a competition to come up with a name that everybody would believe.... The winner was "The Sky is Falling".... let's see if that works ... don't hold your breath.. lol....
"Ranging from 'Koom-ba-yah' to 'Kiss-your-ass-goodbye.'" Had to stop the video for a full five minutes and recover from that. British mastery of dark and dry humor...
nah, it gives credit to the forces of darkness that wish to make people believe that what is actually needed amounts to "kumbaya". It's an example of internalised oppression.
@@abody499 Forces of darkness were not involved in the making of this video and certainly, the use of "kumbaya" will not result in psychological harm as would be in the case of "internalized oppression". If you are implying the whole "global warming" message is an oppressive attempt by dark forces which wish to cause psychological harm, I would suggest you consider that "reality" would be a better place to be and to reconsider.
I have zero hope that our current civilization will effectively change the climate trajectory we are currently on. With 8 billion people, many who are just now striving to achieve first-world status, there is simply no way we can achieve the necessary degree of cooperation needed to fix the climate.
Yep, it’s a tall order indeed 🫢 I feel lucky to live in the U.K. as it is one area that will have some balance from it geographical location 🤔 it’s when the food runs out, that’s when the shooting really starts 🫣 with exon starting the “alternative reality” back in the 70’s and a budget the size, of well, an oil company, the dice where always stacked against meaningful change 😢 all we can do is our best and counter lies when we can ☺️🌀
@@WildcraftBritain don't bet on UK being immune to the effects of climate change, if the AMOC shuts down or weakens significantly the effect on water temperature in the north atlantic will reduce the winter temperatures in the UK by up to 10 degrees celsius (yes i said 10 degrees!). The difference between a hot europe and a cold region to the north of it and the pressure differential this causes will give rise to amazing storms at the interface. The central european storms, the very variable weather in the UK and the anomalous position of the jet stream this year are just hints at what may come.....
@@fuccasound3897 never said it was immune, far from it in fact ☺️ just better placed than continental countries who do not have the stabilisation of a large body of water 😉 plus the moat to slow the pace of people fleeing the south 😞 AMOC shut down is a risk, but a fairly low one on my present understanding especially in my lifetime 🫢
Well, the right way to go is to change the first-world consumption and pollution rate to something sustainable. Then it will be no problem at all if all 8 billion people achieve the same first-world status. After all, your place of birth is not your achievement - just your luck.
I used to ask my students if all the trees but one in your neighborhood were cut down, for lumber, for fuel, for tools and there was only one grand oak tree left, and all the neighbors agreed to save it. All spring and summer they enjoyed the shade, that fall they gathered the acorns. Then, the polar blast hit the neighborhood and your wife and kids were freezing, do you cut down the last tree for heat to save your family? What if it’s just the last tree on your property? What if it’s on your neighbors property but he has kerosene heat? A similar question was a very pretty small glen with a nice creek that bubbled through it. Deer, grouse, native birds lived here in abundance. I showed them a photo of the valley from the jeep trail. Then: 1) Someone bought the land and built a cabin right in the middle near the creek. What changes will happen in 1 year, 5 years, 10 years? 2) the valley was discovered by ATVers and dirt bike enthusiasts. Soon groups appeared every weekend creating new trails, ruts, noise and leaving trash. What are the consequences to this valley and how fast will changes be noticed. Actually, number two happened and we made a field trip. In fact, 4 or 5 side valleys were now accessed and were in the same new torn up condition. You let me know how these people will care about arctic sea ice as long as they have a tree to cut down.
To have any hope, we would have to escape from an economic system that demands infinite growth in order for the system to 'work' and the only way to do that would be to make it financially worthwhile for people to share the jobs we would agree we NEED to have done and work much less...it's the only way the system could still 'work' and provide us with what we need without requiring growth.
You're right it's all about economic system, but when you say "financially worthwhile" you assume growth and all the problems we have. Changes we need are much more deep and radical.
How about taxing fossil fuel profits at 100%. And for other businesses, tax rate depends on how much of their energy use is from fossil fuels. Can apply high profit (not sales) taxes to other wasteful economic spending that take way too much of gdp. To avoid loopholes, similarly tax bond income to said businesses.
What worries me, is that only the geeks like me are the ones actually watching these videos and feeling that dread about the future, while most other people barely think about it, except for some chit chat about the strange weather. Nice work to the authors modifying the measure of the sea ice area btw.
Haven't caught a single fish for a year, neither have the people around me.....things keep washing up on the beach, mass deaths they never report, last months octopuses or the miles of beach covered in razor clams the month before. The giant jelly fish last year, hundreds, thousands of cuttlefish, starfish, sea urchins. Dead whales, dolphins, sea lions & sharks are suddenly washing up and I'm not used to seeing such things on the south Wales coast line. Nothing has been right here since the jet stream started to wobble and split apart 8 years ago!
I turned 60 this year. I’ll be 80 in 2044, so I guess I’ll probably be ok. Thankfully I’ve never had children (I’m gay, and in my day gay guys didn’t have kids so much). Every time a friend of mine announces the birth of another child I wonder what that child’s life will be like. What will the world be like in 2100? Many things have “improved” in the 60 years since I was born, but I’ve also seen massive degradation of the natural world with my own eyes. Not to mention social breakdown. I had a huge argument with a close friend a couple of years ago which lead to the end of our friendship. I could no longer listen to her complaisant views on climate change. At what point will the general public realise that the future of their children is at stake? When I was a student, in the early 80s, there was a huge campaign to save the lemurs of Madagascar, it felt like the world was waking up and we were turning a corner in our attitudes to preserving the natural world. 40 years later I spent time in Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Sierra Leone and was horrified by the environmental destruction that was, if anything, increasing. Even here in the UK I’ve noticed a huge reduction in our native species. It’s so disheartening. My paltry attempts to reduce my carbon footprint seem rather pointless in the face of the climate change deniers.
@@aliendroneservices6621 Environmental destruction in poor countries is very often to support the economies and lifestyles of rich countries. Everyone knows that.
@@aliendroneservices6621 In part yes. But having access to fossil fuels is not sufficient to guaranty their environments. After all they could have used fossil fuels to power chain saws, bull dozers and trucks and logged their forests out and sent the wood to us on ships instead of burning it for fuel.
Dave, the pace of negative climate crisis impacts is increasing. For example, here in the Western US, we are seeing more and more of our forests die off from drought, heat, disease, insects, and fire. Talk about an albedo change! As a professional plant and soil ecologist who’s worked with a number of American agencies you Brits have heard of, the pace of change is alarming. We are already at 1.5 degrees C. And we will see 2 before 2040. Tge tipping points are being crossed now.
We must vote for the planet and climate change. We need a UA-cam channel that digs into climate laws and see who voted for the planet then vote for those people.🎉
@@yegfreethinker without discussing the likelihood of models being right or wrong try thinking of the consequences. If the models are right & we do nothing we are in deep crap. If the models are wrong & we do something we've made the place a whole heap better ignoring any climate effects. Through not relying on combustion we greatly reduce airborne pollution and therefore reduce asthma rates & early deaths due to air pollution. We reduce noise from traffic & construction sites. So many other benefits. When considering how to react to information its always worth thinking of the consequences should you be wrong.
@@yegfreethinkerthat is because there is so much energy sloshing around the system even the long term trends have become chaotic. Things are wandering off the charts.
He's not valuable, he is bullsitting you. Minimum ice extent this year and 2023 was just the same as it was in 2007 when Gore and IPCC started all the "ice free" hysteria. 17 YEARS with no net change. Where is the supposed albedo feedback in that story. In 2007 there was accelerated melting over the relatively short record, so raising attention to the issue was reasonable. Pretending that this is still happening almost two decades later is simply a lie. But that's what badly is all about because he earns MONEY from publishing this crap. Look at the graph he shows at 2m50 and you will see it is BS.
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
Has anybody you known spent less over the last 30 years, anybody refused a pay rise because they didn't want to spend more? It's about the bulk of what we do, not the nipple that is on the breast of the middle class. Everybody thinking money is a ticket to energy that in the future just might not be there, we'll probably go back to horses, hopefully profits and dividends are long gone by then but we also have this NIML Not In My Life, as if the actions we take by being customers and blaming others means we don't have to care.
@@rey_nemaattori But then those at the top won't be able to inflate their debt away and banks won't make profit and you would be able to feel secure and safe within society, then no-one would be forced to keep working their entire lives, doesn't sound like a plan our masters could stand.
Dave! My university program in Transformative Climate Action used one of your videos. You're pretty much an honorary professor. Well done. thanks for helping us think and doing our homework.
i think its also important to note that most of the debt in the world is for projects that will continue to emit carbon and equivalent gases into the atmosphere. MakePollutersPay and stopping the subsidies for the ruling class are the bare minimum 1st steps in avoiding 3 degrees. If the working class does not organize and take back control of our public assets and infrastructure i fear 3 degrees will come sooner that we think. I am already planning for 2.5
They are destroying the financial infrastructure with the fiat currencies, crypto currencies, fin tech, etc. the value of the environment and labour are constantly diminished, with the constant inflation.
I would like to also note, all money in the world is from debt, all based around the energy we get from oil. If you have money/debt and you use it to go for a holiday in the south of france, you are supporting the model. The working class, if they nationalise should do so to do less, food, shelter and medical care and to hell with the rest I say.
I have studied climate science for 35 odd years and the information provided here is 100% accurate albeit still on the conservative side. We have already reached about 1.5°C mean global temp increase. We are too the stage where we cannot passively reduce CO2 and greenhouse gasses to sub existential crisis levels. We are not suddenly going to plant over 1 trillion broad leafed trees (250trees/man, woman and child on earth). Cutting industrial CO2/CH4 to zero ain’t going to cut it either due to the lag in the system . We need to actively extract CO2 from the atmosphere and oceans on a scale that boggles the mind. An ice free arctic in summer has the same effect as adding billions of additional tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere. Ok this is the stark reality of the current situation. We have to come together as a human species and work this out asap. I strongly feel we have left this 50-60 years too late but for my 18yo son’s future we have got to do something. The geo-political future of humankind is going to change very very soon.
You don't have to plant a trillion trees- they do that all by themselves. The extra CO2 is greening the planet as we speak. This is why the CO2 rise has only been linear while human CO2 emissions have remained exponential. Because the natural sinks catch up very fast. We'd have to maintain another 100 years of exponential CO2 emissions growth just to maintain a paltry linear growth in atmospheric levels- which I hope we can. Let's hope your 18 yo gets to enjoy all the freedoms and standard of living we were given through things like affordable energy, personal mobility.
Much love to you dude. It's fucking horrifying reading international climate reports and books like Overshoot. I'm almost 27 now, so I'm starting to get a strong sense of mortality that evades those younger years. I'm extremely scared about what the world will look like in my 40s, 50s, and 60s. I don't even know if I'll get to live that long, to be honest. There's an overwhelming sense of dread and terro about all of this, but I still have to believe that we can do something. The hardest response at this point in time is the best response, immediate and absolute cessation of fossil fuel use. That alone will cause immense problems, but it'll at least take the foot off the gas and maybe allow a buffer to work on actually viable carbon capture. That shit is a joke but hey, maybe if that's literally the only thing we can work on we'll pull something off. The not-dostant future gives me the shakes, but we gotta hold onto some path forward. Hope you're doing okay.
Two words: Phase Change. A large amount of energy is required to change ice into liquid water. The amount of energy required to move -1C ice to 1C water is very large compared to the amount of energy required to move 1C water to 3C water. Once the Arctic ocean is free of sea ice, sea surface temperatures will rise very quickly, and this warm water will be lapping up against the Greenland ice sheets.
The latent energy of ice to water is about 334kj/kg to melt to water in order to heat a kg of water that is 1 Litre from 1C to 2 C is 4181.3j/kg that is 4.1813 kj/kg. You can see the issue and how quickly the water will heat up once the ice is gone. I think I got that right stand to be corrected.
Someone who knows what they are talking about ..... "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is the failure to understand the exponential function." - Albert Bartlett
yes. while ice is melting in a glass, the temperature remains close to zero until the ice disappears, then the temperature steadily increases. That is what makes climate change risks hard for most humans to appreciate. They say "Things are still sort of OK round where I live so what's the problem?
I was a motorcycle despatch rider in UK from 1980's to 2012 and got through some horrendous winters early on but gradually they got warmer with 2023 being a "what winter"
I‘m a crop historian looking at how a certain starchy root crop (taro) originated and spread around the world. It‘s a resilient and (normal-)heat-loving plant. Recently I‘ve noticed heat-stress damage to the leaves here in Japan. This is just another sign of danger to our food supplies, but one that I personally worry about. My work goal is to encourage diversification in food production and consumption, and I try to diversify my own food consumption through buying habits and by growing my own.
Japan has been quite the outlier surprise (to me anyway) Hot-humid regime shift beyond anywhere else I know So a particular level of stress. How is ecology overall doing?
Taro is a tropical crop, the staple of Papuan Neolithic, so it should tolerate heat stress quite well... unlike that Japanese variant has become particularly too well adapted to temperate climate. I'd suggest reimporting the original tropical variant.
Goodonya Dave, another great report. And yes, the Rockstrom presentation is a fairly chilling call to get off our arses soon: something we should all watch, and act upon.
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
I love you began the video outlining the seasonal cycle. So many yobs insist these ice melt videos on UA-cam only show summer time melt. It’s good you clear that up to start with.
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
A well known member of our previous GOVErment said, “we’ve had enough of experts”. They keep trying to tell us about reality, but as the psychologist Marlow said, “children avoid reality as it frightens them”.
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
Note that 12 years is the half-life of methane in the atmosphere. A full half of it is still there after 12 years and is not yet degraded. Also note that the half-life is increasing because the compounds that degrade methane are facing a large onslaught of methane.
thats not the answer. all you can do is do your best to reject the status quo and accept that its ultimately out of your hands. with the kind of attitude we would be stuck in the stone age
@@alanbudde8560 might not be the answer for you, but it sure will be satisfying for me when the demonstration of consequences is realised. And they will, because there's clearly little that will change the direction of travel. So, in that respect, I haven't proposed any solution or "answer" to anything at all, but merely stated what my emotional response is to what is most certainly out of my hands.
Well done and thanks VERY much for further illuminating this topic! I did catch that TED talk a couple weeks ago- glad you mentioned it. All this is so frustrating. I remember as an undergrad meteorology student in the mid 1970's reading Manabe and Wetherald's papers with primative models at GFDL in Princeton forecasting this scenario in climate and then Hansen at NASA highlighting the accelerated warming in the late 80's in testimony before Congress. Its incredible that given that much warning that we are in the 'spot' we're in. Perhaps even more remarkable is how powerfull greed and complacecy are over our decisions.
That TED talk was a religious sermon. The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
@@OldScientist You present a lot of data and literature in support of your "religion" but your post is full of hand picked articles and lots of mentions of literatute where you've dismissed context to support your 'points' on climate change denial. Somehow you've missed mention of any IPCC reports in support of your position. Anyway, back to your point about sea ice extent, most of us know there's more than just warming involved with sea ice cover -new ice is much more vulnerable than old ice and with a more open ocean there's more of it so ice cover alone when including this is not a good gage of ice in the Arctic and changing oceanic circulation transporting ice is another variable impacting ice there. Lost of us know that climate trends are not a continuously linear phenonemon anyway. You'll probably be jumping up and down with joy when AMOC shuts down, cooling the north, particularly Europe. Sea ice will likely increase but eventually warming from terrestial sources will likely resume the old trend.
@@trailsandsails2722 The UN's IPCC AR6 WG1, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", page 1856, section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed: Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions), Aridity, Avalanche (snow), Average precipitation, Average Wind Speed, Coastal Flood, Agricultural drought, Hydrological drought, Erosion of Coastlines, Fire Weather (hot and windy), Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods), Frost, Hail, Heavy Rain, Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms, Landslides, Marine Heatwaves, Ocean Acidity, Radiation at the Earth’s Surface, River/Lake Floods, Sand and Dust Storms, Sea Level, Severe Wind Storms, Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets, Antarctic Sea Ice, Tropical Cyclones.
A cleaner way to depict the trend on the charctic interactive website is to highlight the decadal averages. This provides an unmistakable view of the downward trend of sea ice. Love your channel.
A lot of people, probably, like I've done in the past, say "But, what can I do?" Then, do nothing. But I changed. I have reduced plastics (petroleum products) in every area, refused single use or even bags at stores, carry my own water or ask that restos to put my drink in my cup instead of plastic. I recycle, compost, but the most important thing I do is research the candidates that I vote for. To make sure the people running the government believe in climate change and make policy that is in line with saving the planet from ourselves. I urge others to Vote for the climate first and we can figure out everything else once we have a planet to live on. Thank you for this warning!🎉😊
@@incognitotorpedo42 Most important thing one could do is to learn how it all works in reality, contrary to fairy-tales you're fed through propaganda channels. In this socio-economic (and as consequence, political) system individual votes don't matter. This system is all about money, voting is just circus to keep people fooled and obedient.
Yes, each and everyone of us can make a difference. It will catch on in time. Unfortunately, it might be already late, but we can always hope for better times.
If you still think any of the major G7 countries are democracies, you should have a think. Your vote doesn’t matter in any meaningful way and it’s a distraction from the necessary direct political action needed.
Johan Rockström's TED talk was eye opening and definitely disturbing and certainly worth watching. I'm glad you've provided your own concise and pointed summary here. Very well done!
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
I will be gone before this becomes a critical issue (though it is a very serious issue right now). My only regret is that I wont be here to see the ignorant deflections from the right and all the petrolheads about how 'it ain't happunind'.
The thing is that it's not a right or left wing thing. I first heard of the greenhouse effect and global warming around 1986. Guess where it came from? Some lefty looney? Well yes, it was that well known lefty looney, Margaret Thatcher. I thought it was just that Maggie wanted to crush the coal miners, which in fairness, she did. I was pretty skeptical at that time, but of course the evidence soon started to mount.
Fair play Dave, excellently presented, as always. Keep doing what you're doing. Awareness is the first step, slow and all as it is for society to catch on to what's happening.
David I am really impressed with all your hard work. You give difficult information in a clear and understandable way. The fact that you are not supported by BIG BUSINESS is what makes you believable. I am planning to join your patron group starting in January when I start my new budget [I am retired and live (barely) on what I have but will make a small sacrifice for your good work].
Arctic fisheries are projected to be biggest Growth zone, up to +5 Svalbård catch is more diverse and Arctic Norway is damming river to keep salmon out! Carcasses destroy river ecology, so many !¡! Transition on NorthAm or Siberia may be different
Thanks for your honest content. Appreciate the work and thought that goes into your programs and offering best wishes to all those who are involved in making this informative material available in an understandable format. Mostly, personally, I find myself reacting in a philosophical way to this kind of information. My carbon footprint is as low as I can manage. Unfortunately almost every single thing I can afford to purchase is wrapped in plastic. Plastic which is formed from fossil fuels and manufactured thru fossil fuel burning processes. I didn't ask for or choose this for my world, and my heart breaks for the global situation. I don't understand the greed that drives this all, or the unbalanced situation that has created this mess. I think on these matters daily, but I keep my heart hopeful thru my buddhist practice and prayers.
In 1984 I worked selling supplies to the oil companies in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska and actually drove trucks out onto the ice cap off the northern Alaskan coast to deliver things from welding machines to compressed gasses and welding rod. The job went away when oil prices went from $35/bbl down to $16/bbl. Horrible industry to work in.
We cannot eat, drink, breath, wear $$$$. Money is a story we believe in. Can be very useful. Unfortunately we've confused the biosphere, source of all life,with a thought
Announcement over the Titanic's PA system: "there will be an excellent multimedia presentation this evening on the various features of this amazing ocean liner and the various scenarios that could nullify its unsinkability. Refreshments & fresh pastries will be served."
Great piece as always! ❤ (The importance of growing ice and salinity of sea water is surprinsingly rarely mentioned in explanation of the water circulation...)
It's always mindboggling that companies like Exxon at one point were investing heavily in both PV panels and climate change research. Imagine the massive amounts of money they would have today if they had intensified their research and worked with automobile industrials to develop EVs faster. They would have reached the trillion dollars in worth a long, long time ago.
They don't understand consequences at all. If you wonder why, these entities are owned by people who does not understand these concepts. They are sociopathic, greedy beyond any means, and it is making them blind.
I understand your anger at private fossil fuel companies. But most fossil fuels are produced by state owned companies and these countries rely on the revenues from FFs for their continued existence. If any of the Petro states stopped producing oil they would collapse completely. That is a helluva catastrophe to willingly inflict upon your citizenship.
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
I have done what I can afford to do. The only thing that burns fuel is my 17 year old car. I really don’t see a positive outcome. Glad I haven’t had children.
Running an old car is a good thing. People don't realise that the energy used to produce a new car is the equivalent to about a quarter of what the car will consume during its lifetime. And hats off to you for not breeding. Less people equals less pollution and more habitiat for other species. In any case, young people now simply don't want to go through the monotonous drudgery of childrearing like their mothers did. You'd have to be egocentric and naive to voluntarily want to add new humans into this massively overpopulated world with rapidly degarading environment due to human-induced climate change..
You are probably already aware of the book Breaking Boundaries and the Netflix documentary of the same name. Your reports are always balanced and full of factual content so I will continue to support it.
I’m an aged horticulturist and I’ve seen with my own eyes in my own area the horrible losses and changes in my life…birds, insects, plants, reptiles and amphibians in my area have declined to basically zero. I see some birds and bugs but very few and plants bloom off season and no more frogs or turtles seen in years. I have seen the soil change becoming more crumbly, friable and the air drier this was around 2013-2015. Earthworms vanished county region wide 4 yrs ago. I think there will be NTHE and the best we can hope for is mass die offs and reverting back to hunter gatherers. I actually think the last human will eat the next to last. There will be nothing left. Mt House has best tasting freeze dried meals. Learn and practice making a fire and basic tools from unprocessed wood…logs and limbs. And I think it could begin now to within the next 10-20yrs. I do not see how we can survive 30-50 more yrs based on the rate of loss and changes I’ve witnessed the past 50. Birds and bugs used to fill the skies and air everywhere anytime you looked. Look at old pictures..there are always birds in the sky….now I can go a week or more and never seen one. Been over 20yrs since I’ve cleaned a bug off my windshield. In 1980 u couldn’t drive 30 min without having to stop and clean windshield off. Good luck
@@scribblescrabble3185 2021 & 22 springs in Rome. Two nights were warmer than the days D75F and two nights got to 80F. ALL vegetables stopped growing. Immature fruit just rotted on plants did not mature. This is not a thing known to the public or predicted. Happened in Augusta this spring. You are correct. It’s sounds overblown and way out of proportion…because it is. It is seeing one of the asteroids…not like seeing it is happening and I’m seeing it. I called every research horticulturist I could find on the planet. Some of us cried. We all see it.
I'm glad I'm not the only one observing this. I live in Malaysia and it's supposed to be a jungle but in the past 10 years, I've seen the jungle lose copious amounts of leaves, the vines are killing the trees because neither can find enough water, 7 years ago bugs were always coming into my house at night. I'm glad the wolf spiders aren't around but neither is anything else. The geckos which used to get to be 8 inches long are 1 inch and even the ants are nowhere to be seen. I used to have tiny to 1/2 inch ants, many varieties, but the last couple years there are none in my kitchen or porches. I put out seeds for the birds and planted a yard full of food for them, created a birdbath so I have a variety of birds. They were joyous when I did this. Malaysians saw the first whale ever on the east coast a few days ago. Looking for food? I don't know.
I would like to see a US map of investment property owned or invested in by corporations, Millionaires, Billionaires, and Politicians and overlay it with a sea level rise and extreme weather risk assessment. i don't think that until those properties start becoming stranded assets and these folks start seeing falling numbers in their portfolios that much change will happen on a large scale.
You seem to mean well, but bringing up this tired chestnut in a different clothes doesn't make it any stronger. The rich can enjoy their beachfront properties for decades and can just jack up the mansion and truck in more sand after each hurricane. The multiple worsening catastrophes from climate change hit the poor worst, not the rich. The rich with billions invested in fossil fuel Industries generally react by increasing disinformation and funding denialist right-wing agitators and politicians.
The way you presented this and your comment about galvanizing the community. Actually made me think about maybe changing how I approach emissions myself. I typically think I'm too small to make a difference. But if we all make that small difference it would make a big difference.
This November, I've a seat booked on a flight from Montreal to Phoenix, to visit my sister, whose health is poor. Over the last fifteen years, I've slowly changed from a climate activist into a climate "doomer". I'm not proud of it, but it's simply my reality. I'm a working man, and taking the train/bus diagonally across North America is not feasible within ten days of vacation. When I "just have a think", I feel ashamed and want to bury my head in the sand...
don't feel that way. You should be proud. You know what is happening, unlike many. You tried to do something about it, unlike many. Now you are a realist. We have to live the best way we can.
@@Knifymoloko Serious question. How do any of these measures help without an actionable political strategy? In the absence of a robust global workers' movement capable of seizing control of GHG-emitting industries and rapidly steering them towards carbon-neutral and carbon-negative modes of production, the best case scenario is climate hospice and right now the short-to-medium-term strategy is very clearly climate apartheid. Governments and politicians in northern temperate countries are now going out of their way to demonize and dehumanize the most immediate victims of climate change -- most of whom are among the least culpable thanks to the suppressed economic development -- migrating from the tropics in search of economic stability (e.g., Trump's absurd claim regarding Haitian migrants are eating cats and dogs). These same capitalist-funded parties, both liberals and fascists, have not only spent the past half century repeatedly slammed shut the doors and windows to humane climate policy in favor of business-as-usual but have facilitated the mass murder of inconvenient outgroups (e.g., Palestinians) to sustain the otherwise unsustainable imperialist way of life, to keep the military-industrial and fossil energy gravy train rolling decades past the point of no return. Anyone working in essential industries such as healthcare and education can already see signs of breakdown and collapse: these same rent-seeking psychopaths and social parasites funneling subsidies into the military and energy industries are knowingly divesting from the future as schools, hospitals, and post offices face layoffs and closures on a mass scale. All of these sectors are unionized but the workers' leadership are by and large not aware of the scope of this and the links between these phenomena, or if they are they're only concerned about their little fiefdoms and still allow the state to decide whether they're "allowed" to even go on strike for even a couple days, and even financially support the "moderate" factions (Dems, Blairites, etc.) of the capitalist class laying the groundwork for a global mass starvation and climate pogroms in a pathetic attempt to defend themselves from the openly racist, and all-but-fascist factions dumb enough to say the quiet part out loud. How am I supposed to stay calm through this when I can't even get away with missing work to better organize an effective resistance? When I can't even talk to my own goddamn coworkers about these issues because half of them read the fucking New York Post's articles dehumanizing the biggest victims in all of this? When I'm stuck on night shifts and have to sacrifice sleep just to go to a protest, never mind effectively intervene in one to steer people away from the same NGO-led and liberal-approved lesser-evilist bullshit? The only thing keeping me going is a combination of unyielding but quiet and latent rage and withering hope for a socialist future and that is probably going to shorten my life expectancy before things are allowed to Actually Happen in the ways Lenin described and meaningfully change by means that aren't easily described on the Internet where Five Eyes agencies are listening.
probably the people who handle the crisis best are the ones who got really depressed quite early and are now even a little bit interested to see how exactly the disaster will unfold.
Trouble is, most people live entirely in the present, and don’t really care about anything else. Perhaps looking forward to their next holiday or paying off the mortgage. And most people in power are old and cynical or worn out by the struggle. Do the young ones care when they’re not on their phones? It’s a bit of a worry. And all the critters we share the planet with. It’s not their fault.
My blood pressure is certainly destabilized for the next 4 years after November 5th, and this video locked that in. Waiting for something to happen isn't a viable solution anymore. Action must take place.
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
It's very upsetting to mention the average temperature projections (1.5C) and not also include that ITS A 30 YEAR LAGGING INDICATOR, an average of the last 30 years.. When we have already started measuring global temps over 1.5C, to not mention that and still claim we are around 1.2C is asinine and frankly a huge injustice to the lay person who wants to get involved. If you're going to inform people, INFORM them please
there is a big flooding in central Europe even worse than in 1997 ,but a week ago journalists alarmed that you could walk through Vistula river due to draught and find artefacts left by Swedes
Yeah, here in Czechia we've gone from hottest August on record, hottest first week of September on record (32C) to "once in a century" floods. In the space of a few days.
The climate is attempting to adjust to our changes, in doing so it travels through a chaos time, when things don't go they way you'd expect them to. The "good news" is that eventually our emissions will stop rising and level off, when that happens the climate will "catch up" and then things will stabilize into our new climate. Clearly we're some time away from that happening, and the oil industry would like us to take even longer, if they can use more lies to keep us wasting a valuable resource.
@@Beckford4000 We here in eastern Austria are currently in a 250 year flood. The danube is only 40 cm before its all time high 8m in 2013. We just have to prepare for more extremes far more often.
Is it really? The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
I appreciate your thoughtful analysis of the situation, which is starkly shocking and truly difficult to see around. As the rivers of Alaska have been running red due to iron leaching from permafrost, the devastating effects on aquatic life from metals leaching into streams brings the realization that we are already in a catastrophic ecological situation. While we may feel we have some time to spare, I am afraid time is running out far too quickly. The fact that only about 1/4 of the ice that was present in 1979 is still present shows how rapidly the big picture has changed. I see no clear shift politically at the moment that would reflect an understanding of the facts. I almost feel a sense of urgency that our existential crisis is being met with a cynical indifference while Rome burns. At this point, both prayer and political will must take action.
In 2044 I will be in 92 and given my current health problems, probably in Heaven. Hope to see you there. This program should be necessary viewing to all people . Vaya con Dios.
Finally! Someone pointed out the elephant in the room! This planet simply cannot sustain 8bn individuals. Earth resource overshoot day was on August 1st and gets earlier every year. The single biggest individual impact you can have on the CO2 emission is to have one less child.
To some degree this might be correct. Most civilisations have been wiped out by rapid weather changes. We need to dig down as in old Turkey - subterranean living; for either increasing warmth or the coming ice-age. Plus grow food every-which-way we can. Minimise starvation as much as possible.
I have noticed the wind & Humidity climb over the years living in Rockingham West Australia .More wind from the South these days. It makes sense with Central Australia getting hotter but what about when the south pole melts. No more cold ice to cool use anymore. We have already gone over a tipping point.
I want to share a sentence I heard last year, with respect to the common view that individual action has little effect: We have to be aware that we are the system, when we act, this is already system change. That means we shouldn’t think that the system and us are two separate things, we are the system and when we act the system already changes. Others see our actions, our buying decisions, our choices of means of transportation. So individual action has a big impact, not just for one legislation period, but for our entire lives.
Another great report, Dave. Although the fact that You consider those IPCC conclusions to be valuable sources doesn't work on Your favour. All IPCC reports and conclusions have always been way too optimistic and the newer version we read, the greater hiatus between them and observed reality we notice. Definitely, we are going straight towards the world 4-7°C warmer than in preindustrial age and an inertia of the entire incredibly massive system means, that it has to happen even if we cease any greenhouse gases emissions today. But obviously we will not cease them and global GHG's emissions keep rising even now.
According to research (Pistone et al. 2019) a summer-ice-free Arctic ocean would be equivalent in extra warming to about 25 years of our global CO2 emissions. And that is just the albedo effect, it does not include resulting methane emissions. If 'only' 1% or 15 gigatons of methane is emitted from the permafrost, it would be equivalent in heating to at least 30 years of global CO2 emissions.
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
Even if we stop warming, A23 is going to melt competely, how much sea level rise will that account for? And can we stop the warming before another chunk breaks off from somewhere?
Perhaps you could tell us about the catastrophe which befell the Earth last time the Arctic Ocean melted completely in Summer during the Holocene Thermal Optimum 6-7000 years ago.
Very lucid, very clear. In the vein of Johann Rockstrom's superb presentation. Well done. The problem is, given such leadership, will enough of the populations up the required urgency and take the necessary actions/sacrifices?
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
Quite why offices round the world returned to BAU on spite of the massive amounts of cash that could be saved by closing offices is beyond me. At least for every office I've ever worked in where it's just been a computer at a desk more or less. If all those office workers worked from home, no need to commute.
I don't need anymore eye openers. When we actually have solutions that world wide we are all working on, that video I will watch. At this point more information about how bad it is not helping me, considering none of the information is as bad as I thought it would be over 2 decades ago. Which is the only comforting thing, we still have a glimer of hope. Until someone in power speaks and say something like directing a hurricane.
Thank you dave for being direct with the data and doing as much as possible. Your question of how do the changes look in my life have inspired me to eat less meat (with a long term goal of becoming something close to vegan with the help of a nutritionist), consume less electricity and move as much as possible using exclusively public transport and/or walking. As a student of physics, I hope to be of any aid in this war for our future.
So I ditched fossil fuel transportation 10 years ago And went off grid and now use 100% solar power for everything including transportation. I stopped eating meat in the 1990s and buy almost nothing new.
I'm told that none of that matters and individual efforts have little to no effect. But the thing is I didn't do any of that to "Save the Planet" I did those things to save my money and my health.
Well done. Of course it matters. Every better choice we take makes the future a little less worse.
1. If a couple billion people did as you have we would have a lot less emissions. So individuals do count.
2. If people like you took your philosophy and experience to work with you we would have a lot of corporations also making emission reduction / efficiency savings.
3. Yes you are correct, many global oligopolies have somehow convinced us that inefficient solutions are best just because it means more money for the ultra wealthy people.
How much money do you estimate you have saved?
@@skierpageExactly. I have heard so many of my progressive, environmentally concerned brethren defacto comment how useless it is for responsible individual action, how it's only governmental pressure on fossil fuel industry that will begin to turn things around. I think that stance completely absolves the responsibility of the citizen from their ability to make an impact, essentially washing their hands of any responsibility to conserve energy, patronize companies that act and produce environmental and globally sustainable products, etc.
For just one conspicuous example, I have seen progressives in debates or talks or podcasts--even those I otherwise highly respect--( obviously paling in comparison to the clueless right or average American, but nevertheless equally responsible) cavalierly use plastic water bottles to be tossed in the trash rather than use glass, metal or even reusable plastic containers that need mere washing for reuse. That is an inexcusable level of irresponsibility that can easily be corrected, helping to reduce the firehouse of single use plastics that the environment is drowning in. Part of it is about practicing what one preaches, setting an example.
I did the same but I did want to save the planet. The best we can all do is vote for people in government that believe in climate change and who want policy to save the planet. Governments must reflect the goal to save the planet.
Now I need to find the channel "Just have a drink"
✌🤣
Just have a toke 😮💨
Won't help. Try cannabis - if it's legal where you are. It won't change anything either, but you won't care as much.😉
Just have a......err, never mind (blush!)
Which is a carcinogen & filled with sugar, sadly what we all need has been deemed illegal by the same people destroying our collective futures.
So, three things.
1. It apparently takes a lot more energy to make ice melt than it is to warm water. As sea ice is reduced, not only do we lose albedo, but a lot more energy than would have gone into heating up the ice will go into heating up the water, so the water's temperatures will increase faster and global warming will accelerate.
2. Recently, it's been estimated that we'll probably reach 2°C of warming by 2035.
3. Forest fires started emitting as much CO2 in the atmosphere as small countries. Because we didn't curb our own emissions fast enough, it seems like we've triggered several tipping points already (forest fires aside, methane emissions are soaring). I don't think that our carbon budget allows for 5 years of emission. I don't know if we even have a carbon budget anymore, if considering current tipping points we could already be over.
I think that what we're likely to see in the future are more sudden jumps in global temperatures, like we faced these past two years. We had a big jump due in part to the decrease in NO2 emissions (termination shock), and in part because of el niño. If looking at the past few el niños, some of the temperature gains were permanent. We'll probably see two or three more el niños by 2035. Paul Beckwith often says that the changes are front-loaded. That is, most of the changes happen rapidly (on a geological scale), and then taper of.
That means that we absolutely do not have as much time as we think we have, and need to hurry up.
Well said!
The mantra of our civilization: Must Go Faster
@@obsoleteoptics Faster in the wrong direction! 😂
It is far too late to consider any change could be made at scale. We exist in a complex world, so we will not be able to afford living in the next decade. Insurance companies have the best math & data money can buy.
@@Stupidityindex Yes, I agree. I think that most of us will die before the end of this century, and that global collapse is already underway. With that said, we should still try as best as we can to minimize the damage. It could make the difference between some species going extinct or not, and that includes our own.
I'm so glad you exist. You are so unusually informative and honest. Love your channel man.
The predictions aren't normal or reliable because the prevailing winds aren't prevailing but following the cyclic nature of magnetic reversal and galactic ripple.
@@DrCorvid Is galactic ripple like raspberry ripple? Has someone spiked yours?
Scientists don't know everything, but they know way more than you probably imagine.
Learn something about the recurrent solar novas then from Doug Vogt and Ben Davidson; they both have text books!
@@DrCorvid Found something about Doug Vogt on a blog. Looks like total pseudoscience and numerology. There's no mechanism for Earth's rotation to stop during a nova, and if it every did stop, as Randall Monroe wrote, the remaining angular momentum of the atmosphere would be enough to fry everything. A text book is something you can learn established facts from, not barking hallucinations.
No Dude, this is crap. The Oceans, severley biased to the Atlantic hold close to 50% of that global warming heat [Levitus et al 2012], and that heat is below 40'N. Yet this blatant fact is 100% missing despite you 100% need that information to get a clear picture of this legion of lies and assumptions. Go look at a chart for global warming on google. She says one thing about global warming from 1750s (Watt developed his the steam engine was developed in 1761) but the actual chart will show the increase did not begin till 1900s. From 1945 the global mean temperature decended for 20 years so that by 1963 the sea ice off Dunkirk extended 5 kms into the English Channel, not spiked from the 1950s. She shows dramatic red shading over the industrialised north without stating what it is, yet the global warming thing is 98% an OCEAN heating event which per volume if 3,250 times greater. This is as reliable as Putin saying the Ukraine invaded Russia, or as misleading as the steam cooling towers belching out steam, trying to convince you it is smoke and co2. It is dangerous shite.
Thank you for the exceptionally informative videos.
I work for University of Colorado and I studied the Plankton cycle from the melting sea ice north of Alaska from 2014 to 2019. We started measurements in late summer (July August) initially to allow the ice to melt enough to catch the plankton bloom period but by 2019, we had to go in May because the ice was melting so fast. In May 2019, we had to fly about 100 km north of Alaska before we encountered a significant amount of sea ice. There was still fast ice on the coast of Alaska but once out a few km, the sea was fee from ice. The other consequence is the lack of ice causes waves to be stronger and erode the coast of Utqiagvik. Thus, they had to rebuild water barriers to protect the town.
So more plankton? Or a non temperature new limiting factor stopped population explosion?
😢
l....well A horse walks into a bar... says... First they called it "Global Warming"... well nobody believed that..... sooo they changed the name to "Climate Change" well nobody believed that either.. sooo they ran a competition to come up with a name that everybody would believe.... The winner was "The Sky is Falling".... let's see if that works ... don't hold your breath.. lol....
"Ranging from 'Koom-ba-yah' to 'Kiss-your-ass-goodbye.'" Had to stop the video for a full five minutes and recover from that. British mastery of dark and dry humor...
nah, it gives credit to the forces of darkness that wish to make people believe that what is actually needed amounts to "kumbaya". It's an example of internalised oppression.
it was catastrophically good,...
Kiss-your-arse-goodbye...
Without humour, Existence is insufferable.
@@abody499 Forces of darkness were not involved in the making of this video and certainly, the use of "kumbaya" will not result in psychological harm as would be in the case of "internalized oppression". If you are implying the whole "global warming" message is an oppressive attempt by dark forces which wish to cause psychological harm, I would suggest you consider that "reality" would be a better place to be and to reconsider.
I have zero hope that our current civilization will effectively change the climate trajectory we are currently on. With 8 billion people, many who are just now striving to achieve first-world status, there is simply no way we can achieve the necessary degree of cooperation needed to fix the climate.
Fully agree. Yesterday, I just watched „Mad Max“ in order to remind me what will come /s
Yep, it’s a tall order indeed 🫢 I feel lucky to live in the U.K. as it is one area that will have some balance from it geographical location 🤔 it’s when the food runs out, that’s when the shooting really starts 🫣 with exon starting the “alternative reality” back in the 70’s and a budget the size, of well, an oil company, the dice where always stacked against meaningful change 😢 all we can do is our best and counter lies when we can ☺️🌀
@@WildcraftBritain don't bet on UK being immune to the effects of climate change, if the AMOC shuts down or weakens significantly the effect on water temperature in the north atlantic will reduce the winter temperatures in the UK by up to 10 degrees celsius (yes i said 10 degrees!). The difference between a hot europe and a cold region to the north of it and the pressure differential this causes will give rise to amazing storms at the interface. The central european storms, the very variable weather in the UK and the anomalous position of the jet stream this year are just hints at what may come.....
@@fuccasound3897 never said it was immune, far from it in fact ☺️ just better placed than continental countries who do not have the stabilisation of a large body of water 😉 plus the moat to slow the pace of people fleeing the south 😞 AMOC shut down is a risk, but a fairly low one on my present understanding especially in my lifetime 🫢
Well, the right way to go is to change the first-world consumption and pollution rate to something sustainable.
Then it will be no problem at all if all 8 billion people achieve the same first-world status.
After all, your place of birth is not your achievement - just your luck.
I used to ask my students if all the trees but one in your neighborhood were cut down, for lumber, for fuel, for tools and there was only one grand oak tree left, and all the neighbors agreed to save it. All spring and summer they enjoyed the shade, that fall they gathered the acorns. Then, the polar blast hit the neighborhood and your wife and kids were freezing, do you cut down the last tree for heat to save your family? What if it’s just the last tree on your property? What if it’s on your neighbors property but he has kerosene heat?
A similar question was a very pretty small glen with a nice creek that bubbled through it. Deer, grouse, native birds lived here in abundance. I showed them a photo of the valley from the jeep trail.
Then:
1) Someone bought the land and built a cabin right in the middle near the creek. What changes will happen in 1 year, 5 years, 10 years?
2) the valley was discovered by ATVers and dirt bike enthusiasts. Soon groups appeared every weekend creating new trails, ruts, noise and leaving trash. What are the consequences to this valley and how fast will changes be noticed.
Actually, number two happened and we made a field trip. In fact, 4 or 5 side valleys were now accessed and were in the same new torn up condition.
You let me know how these people will care about arctic sea ice as long as they have a tree to cut down.
To have any hope, we would have to escape from an economic system that demands infinite growth in order for the system to 'work' and the only way to do that would be to make it financially worthwhile for people to share the jobs we would agree we NEED to have done and work much less...it's the only way the system could still 'work' and provide us with what we need without requiring growth.
So where has your utopian economy been tried out?
@@rjbiker66 North America, before colonization.
@@jamesphillips2285 where native American tribes went around killing each other?
You're right it's all about economic system, but when you say "financially worthwhile" you assume growth and all the problems we have. Changes we need are much more deep and radical.
How about taxing fossil fuel profits at 100%. And for other businesses, tax rate depends on how much of their energy use is from fossil fuels. Can apply high profit (not sales) taxes to other wasteful economic spending that take way too much of gdp. To avoid loopholes, similarly tax bond income to said businesses.
What worries me, is that only the geeks like me are the ones actually watching these videos and feeling that dread about the future, while most other people barely think about it, except for some chit chat about the strange weather. Nice work to the authors modifying the measure of the sea ice area btw.
Fuck it. I just accepted my fate. If we die then so be it. I’m gonna spend time with someone I love
@@TheDragonRelicdon’t give up just yet. As humans a good fight until it’s over story is way more fulfilling than just accepting your fate isn’t it?
@@halflive3convirmed553 I don’t care anymore imma go have fun with my bff
Even when people acknowledge it I get the sense they think 3 degrees is barely different than now. Scary really
I think most people think and worry about this, but since it has become a political topic, people avoid talking about it in most environments
Haven't caught a single fish for a year, neither have the people around me.....things keep washing up on the beach, mass deaths they never report, last months octopuses or the miles of beach covered in razor clams the month before. The giant jelly fish last year, hundreds, thousands of cuttlefish, starfish, sea urchins. Dead whales, dolphins, sea lions & sharks are suddenly washing up and I'm not used to seeing such things on the south Wales coast line. Nothing has been right here since the jet stream started to wobble and split apart 8 years ago!
Except it didnt.
@@manoo422I think they are trying to be sarcastic. So funny.
I've caught 114 fish this year.
i caught crabs
@michaelg8642 you should have stood on the toilet seat
I turned 60 this year. I’ll be 80 in 2044, so I guess I’ll probably be ok. Thankfully I’ve never had children (I’m gay, and in my day gay guys didn’t have kids so much). Every time a friend of mine announces the birth of another child I wonder what that child’s life will be like. What will the world be like in 2100? Many things have “improved” in the 60 years since I was born, but I’ve also seen massive degradation of the natural world with my own eyes. Not to mention social breakdown. I had a huge argument with a close friend a couple of years ago which lead to the end of our friendship. I could no longer listen to her complaisant views on climate change. At what point will the general public realise that the future of their children is at stake? When I was a student, in the early 80s, there was a huge campaign to save the lemurs of Madagascar, it felt like the world was waking up and we were turning a corner in our attitudes to preserving the natural world. 40 years later I spent time in Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Sierra Leone and was horrified by the environmental destruction that was, if anything, increasing. Even here in the UK I’ve noticed a huge reduction in our native species. It’s so disheartening. My paltry attempts to reduce my carbon footprint seem rather pointless in the face of the climate change deniers.
Environmental destruction in the poor countries you visited was caused by lack of sufficient access to fossil-fuels.
I’m 60 this year too. I guess I won’t be around to see the worst of this, but my kids will. It’s so sad.
@@timwhite8500 Maybe you still have your chances. WW3 with thermonuclear weapon used is not at all unlikely.
@@aliendroneservices6621 Environmental destruction in poor countries is very often to support the economies and lifestyles of rich countries. Everyone knows that.
@@aliendroneservices6621 In part yes. But having access to fossil fuels is not sufficient to guaranty their environments. After all they could have used fossil fuels to power chain saws, bull dozers and trucks and logged their forests out and sent the wood to us on ships instead of burning it for fuel.
David, you're doing excellent work. Keep it up.
Well done Dave. Great to hear you talking about the crisis rather than another energy storage video. Keep up the great work!
Dave, the pace of negative climate crisis impacts is increasing. For example, here in the Western US, we are seeing more and more of our forests die off from drought, heat, disease, insects, and fire. Talk about an albedo change!
As a professional plant and soil ecologist who’s worked with a number of American agencies you Brits have heard of, the pace of change is alarming.
We are already at 1.5 degrees C. And we will see 2 before 2040. Tge tipping points are being crossed now.
We must vote for the planet and climate change. We need a UA-cam channel that digs into climate laws and see who voted for the planet then vote for those people.🎉
You don't know that definitively: models can and have be/en wrong
We've been well above 2c for quite sometime. Even the conservative IPCC has admitted this!
@@yegfreethinker without discussing the likelihood of models being right or wrong try thinking of the consequences. If the models are right & we do nothing we are in deep crap. If the models are wrong & we do something we've made the place a whole heap better ignoring any climate effects. Through not relying on combustion we greatly reduce airborne pollution and therefore reduce asthma rates & early deaths due to air pollution. We reduce noise from traffic & construction sites. So many other benefits.
When considering how to react to information its always worth thinking of the consequences should you be wrong.
@@yegfreethinkerthat is because there is so much energy sloshing around the system even the long term trends have become chaotic. Things are wandering off the charts.
Thank you again for this message. We will not kill the messenger, he is too valuable.
He's not valuable, he is bullsitting you. Minimum ice extent this year and 2023 was just the same as it was in 2007 when Gore and IPCC started all the "ice free" hysteria. 17 YEARS with no net change. Where is the supposed albedo feedback in that story. In 2007 there was accelerated melting over the relatively short record, so raising attention to the issue was reasonable. Pretending that this is still happening almost two decades later is simply a lie. But that's what badly is all about because he earns MONEY from publishing this crap. Look at the graph he shows at 2m50 and you will see it is BS.
Scary stuff… but also a very informative and important video. Thank you
Whoa 😮 this is seriously depressing 😢 thanks for highlighting this important information though. Keep up the great work 👍🏻
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
"They" will just kick the can down the road. It's not NIMBY it's NIMLT ( Not In My LifeTime), meanwhile it's all about the profits & dividends.
Has anybody you known spent less over the last 30 years, anybody refused a pay rise because they didn't want to spend more? It's about the bulk of what we do, not the nipple that is on the breast of the middle class. Everybody thinking money is a ticket to energy that in the future just might not be there, we'll probably go back to horses, hopefully profits and dividends are long gone by then but we also have this NIML Not In My Life, as if the actions we take by being customers and blaming others means we don't have to care.
@@antonyjh1234 If inflation wasn't kept artificially high to encourage investing and punish saving, nobody would have to keep asking for pay raises.
@@rey_nemaattori But then those at the top won't be able to inflate their debt away and banks won't make profit and you would be able to feel secure and safe within society, then no-one would be forced to keep working their entire lives, doesn't sound like a plan our masters could stand.
We're running out of road.
We could move to nuclear power, but climate alarmists don't want real solutions.
I think illustrating the impacts on the climate in Europe of the breakdown of AMOC would be very impactful
You have one of the best channel names.
Dave! My university program in Transformative Climate Action used one of your videos. You're pretty much an honorary professor. Well done. thanks for helping us think and doing our homework.
Thanks for this update.
i think its also important to note that most of the debt in the world is for projects that will continue to emit carbon and equivalent gases into the atmosphere. MakePollutersPay and stopping the subsidies for the ruling class are the bare minimum 1st steps in avoiding 3 degrees. If the working class does not organize and take back control of our public assets and infrastructure i fear 3 degrees will come sooner that we think. I am already planning for 2.5
They are destroying the financial infrastructure with the fiat currencies, crypto currencies, fin tech, etc. the value of the environment and labour are constantly diminished, with the constant inflation.
Maybe the fascists will strike first. Either way deep shit. Oh, Fermi ! That was no paradox !
Im really happy the we are warming because alaska is literally soooo cold.
I would like to also note, all money in the world is from debt, all based around the energy we get from oil. If you have money/debt and you use it to go for a holiday in the south of france, you are supporting the model. The working class, if they nationalise should do so to do less, food, shelter and medical care and to hell with the rest I say.
@@antonyjh1234 thats why im broke as hell… seems the only way to lead an ethical life without blood on your hands. Its all blood money straight up.
I have studied climate science for 35 odd years and the information provided here is 100% accurate albeit still on the conservative side.
We have already reached about 1.5°C mean global temp increase. We are too the stage where we cannot passively reduce CO2 and greenhouse gasses to sub existential crisis levels. We are not suddenly going to plant over 1 trillion broad leafed trees (250trees/man, woman and child on earth).
Cutting industrial CO2/CH4 to zero ain’t going to cut it either due to the lag in the system .
We need to actively extract CO2 from the atmosphere and oceans on a scale that boggles the mind.
An ice free arctic in summer has the same effect as adding billions of additional tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Ok this is the stark reality of the current situation. We have to come together as a human species and work this out asap.
I strongly feel we have left this 50-60 years too late but for my 18yo son’s future we have got to do something.
The geo-political future of humankind is going to change very very soon.
You don't have to plant a trillion trees- they do that all by themselves. The extra CO2 is greening the planet as we speak.
This is why the CO2 rise has only been linear while human CO2 emissions have remained exponential. Because the natural sinks catch up very fast. We'd have to maintain another 100 years of exponential CO2 emissions growth just to maintain a paltry linear growth in atmospheric levels- which I hope we can.
Let's hope your 18 yo gets to enjoy all the freedoms and standard of living we were given through things like affordable energy, personal mobility.
China will save us. China is our only hope 🇨🇳
"odd" years is right. Perhaps you could explain why CO2 has been at such high levels in prehistoric cold periods?
hey i am an 18 y/o just like your son, and don't worry we are fucked and we will be fucked despite our best efforts.
Much love to you dude. It's fucking horrifying reading international climate reports and books like Overshoot. I'm almost 27 now, so I'm starting to get a strong sense of mortality that evades those younger years. I'm extremely scared about what the world will look like in my 40s, 50s, and 60s. I don't even know if I'll get to live that long, to be honest.
There's an overwhelming sense of dread and terro about all of this, but I still have to believe that we can do something. The hardest response at this point in time is the best response, immediate and absolute cessation of fossil fuel use. That alone will cause immense problems, but it'll at least take the foot off the gas and maybe allow a buffer to work on actually viable carbon capture. That shit is a joke but hey, maybe if that's literally the only thing we can work on we'll pull something off. The not-dostant future gives me the shakes, but we gotta hold onto some path forward.
Hope you're doing okay.
Two words: Phase Change. A large amount of energy is required to change ice into liquid water. The amount of energy required to move -1C ice to 1C water is very large compared to the amount of energy required to move 1C water to 3C water. Once the Arctic ocean is free of sea ice, sea surface temperatures will rise very quickly, and this warm water will be lapping up against the Greenland ice sheets.
I’m glad I was wearing my brown trousers when I read this
The latent energy of ice to water is about 334kj/kg to melt to water in order to heat a kg of water that is 1 Litre from 1C to 2 C is 4181.3j/kg that is 4.1813 kj/kg. You can see the issue and how quickly the water will heat up once the ice is gone. I think I got that right stand to be corrected.
Someone who knows what they are talking about .....
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is the failure to understand the exponential function." - Albert Bartlett
yes. while ice is melting in a glass, the temperature remains close to zero until the ice disappears, then the temperature steadily increases. That is what makes climate change risks hard for most humans to appreciate. They say "Things are still sort of OK round where I live so what's the problem?
Thank you so much for the research and information you provide. Great work! I love your weekly clips!
Danke!
Thanks for your support. Much appreciated :-)
I was a motorcycle despatch rider in UK from 1980's to 2012 and got through some horrendous winters early on but gradually they got warmer with 2023 being a "what winter"
I‘m a crop historian looking at how a certain starchy root crop (taro) originated and spread around the world. It‘s a resilient and (normal-)heat-loving plant. Recently I‘ve noticed heat-stress damage to the leaves here in Japan. This is just another sign of danger to our food supplies, but one that I personally worry about. My work goal is to encourage diversification in food production and consumption, and I try to diversify my own food consumption through buying habits and by growing my own.
Japan has been quite the outlier surprise (to me anyway)
Hot-humid regime shift beyond anywhere else I know
So a particular level of stress. How is ecology overall doing?
Taro is a tropical crop, the staple of Papuan Neolithic, so it should tolerate heat stress quite well... unlike that Japanese variant has become particularly too well adapted to temperate climate. I'd suggest reimporting the original tropical variant.
I was shocked as a teacher in Japan to see taro growing.
Goodonya Dave, another great report. And yes, the Rockstrom presentation is a fairly chilling call to get off our arses soon: something we should all watch, and act upon.
I think the average person does nothing. This is all forced upon us without our opinion.
My opinion is that it's too late. I don't say that to be edgy or cynical. Boomers and the oil lbby f****d us.
Great huh...😑😶😞😊
I'll just go shut down Exxon-Mobil then, sorry guys.
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
One of the most important youtube channels to interact with. Great work, Dave!
I love you began the video outlining the seasonal cycle. So many yobs insist these ice melt videos on UA-cam only show summer time melt. It’s good you clear that up to start with.
No pressure then Dave... ;)
Great work as usual, thanks for sharing this
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
Why does your comment say 4 days ago?
A well known member of our previous GOVErment said, “we’ve had enough of experts”. They keep trying to tell us about reality, but as the psychologist Marlow said, “children avoid reality as it frightens them”.
I lived in a caravan here and there,various places, between 1990 and 2015, and during that time the winters warmed by 1.5 degrees.
another great video, thanks Dave... I got over my doom phase long ago, but it's good to keep up-to-date on the planet's state...
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
Note that 12 years is the half-life of methane in the atmosphere. A full half of it is still there after 12 years and is not yet degraded. Also note that the half-life is increasing because the compounds that degrade methane are facing a large onslaught of methane.
I doubt blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline helped but no one bothered to investigate that properly
@@tims9434 You think the Russians left the gas full on since then?
So are we going to get people suggesting (and planning) on burning it at source because it would be the lesser of two evils?
@@tims9434oh they probably did investigate, but do not want to release the results.
@@tims9434it's not the only source
There's a part of me that just wants it to hurry up. They won't listen, so it's better that they are shown.
thats not the answer. all you can do is do your best to reject the status quo and accept that its ultimately out of your hands. with the kind of attitude we would be stuck in the stone age
@@alanbudde8560 might not be the answer for you, but it sure will be satisfying for me when the demonstration of consequences is realised. And they will, because there's clearly little that will change the direction of travel. So, in that respect, I haven't proposed any solution or "answer" to anything at all, but merely stated what my emotional response is to what is most certainly out of my hands.
Well done and thanks VERY much for further illuminating this topic! I did catch that TED talk a couple weeks ago- glad you mentioned it. All this is so frustrating. I remember as an undergrad meteorology student in the mid 1970's reading Manabe and Wetherald's papers with primative models at GFDL in Princeton forecasting this scenario in climate and then Hansen at NASA highlighting the accelerated warming in the late 80's in testimony before Congress. Its incredible that given that much warning that we are in the 'spot' we're in. Perhaps even more remarkable is how powerfull greed and complacecy are over our decisions.
That TED talk was a religious sermon.
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
The lobbyists made sure that their captured politicians did nothing.
@@OldScientist"was a religious..."
YOU ARE!
@@OldScientist You present a lot of data and literature in support of your "religion" but your post is full of hand picked articles and lots of mentions of literatute where you've dismissed context to support your 'points' on climate change denial. Somehow you've missed mention of any IPCC reports in support of your position. Anyway, back to your point about sea ice extent, most of us know there's more than just warming involved with sea ice cover -new ice is much more vulnerable than old ice and with a more open ocean there's more of it so ice cover alone when including this is not a good gage of ice in the Arctic and changing oceanic circulation transporting ice is another variable impacting ice there. Lost of us know that climate trends are not a continuously linear phenonemon anyway. You'll probably be jumping up and down with joy when AMOC shuts down, cooling the north, particularly Europe. Sea ice will likely increase but eventually warming from terrestial sources will likely resume the old trend.
@@trailsandsails2722 The UN's IPCC AR6 WG1, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", page 1856, section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed:
Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions),
Aridity,
Avalanche (snow),
Average precipitation,
Average Wind Speed,
Coastal Flood,
Agricultural drought,
Hydrological drought,
Erosion of Coastlines,
Fire Weather (hot and windy),
Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods),
Frost,
Hail,
Heavy Rain,
Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms,
Landslides,
Marine Heatwaves,
Ocean Acidity,
Radiation at the Earth’s Surface,
River/Lake Floods,
Sand and Dust Storms,
Sea Level,
Severe Wind Storms,
Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets,
Antarctic Sea Ice,
Tropical Cyclones.
A cleaner way to depict the trend on the charctic interactive website is to highlight the decadal averages. This provides an unmistakable view of the downward trend of sea ice. Love your channel.
A lot of people, probably, like I've done in the past, say "But, what can I do?" Then, do nothing. But I changed. I have reduced plastics (petroleum products) in every area, refused single use or even bags at stores, carry my own water or ask that restos to put my drink in my cup instead of plastic. I recycle, compost, but the most important thing I do is research the candidates that I vote for. To make sure the people running the government believe in climate change and make policy that is in line with saving the planet from ourselves. I urge others to Vote for the climate first and we can figure out everything else once we have a planet to live on. Thank you for this warning!🎉😊
Voting correctly is the most important thing anyone can do. Thanks for pointing that out.
@@incognitotorpedo42 Most important thing one could do is to learn how it all works in reality, contrary to fairy-tales you're fed through propaganda channels. In this socio-economic (and as consequence, political) system individual votes don't matter. This system is all about money, voting is just circus to keep people fooled and obedient.
Yes, each and everyone of us can make a difference. It will catch on in time. Unfortunately, it might be already late, but we can always hope for better times.
If you still think any of the major G7 countries are democracies, you should have a think. Your vote doesn’t matter in any meaningful way and it’s a distraction from the necessary direct political action needed.
The best thing to do is lobby your governments to action.
Johan Rockström's TED talk was eye opening and definitely disturbing and certainly worth watching. I'm glad you've provided your own concise and pointed summary here. Very well done!
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
I will be gone before this becomes a critical issue (though it is a very serious issue right now). My only regret is that I wont be here to see the ignorant deflections from the right and all the petrolheads about how 'it ain't happunind'.
The thing is that it's not a right or left wing thing. I first heard of the greenhouse effect and global warming around 1986. Guess where it came from? Some lefty looney? Well yes, it was that well known lefty looney, Margaret Thatcher. I thought it was just that Maggie wanted to crush the coal miners, which in fairness, she did. I was pretty skeptical at that time, but of course the evidence soon started to mount.
you can see that already
Fair play Dave, excellently presented, as always. Keep doing what you're doing. Awareness is the first step, slow and all as it is for society to catch on to what's happening.
David I am really impressed with all your hard work. You give difficult information in a clear and understandable way. The fact that you are not supported by BIG BUSINESS is what makes you believable. I am planning to join your patron group starting in January when I start my new budget [I am retired and live (barely) on what I have but will make a small sacrifice for your good work].
Down to the nitty gritty - great thanks Dave. We all know there is NO solution to any problem if we dont understand the nature of said problem.
so buzz around find out how fast we going die then aye gov
It’s almost a Silent Spring.
I've been trying to remember that title for over a week!
Rachel Carson a voice crying in the wilderness. No birds sing. 🕊
Cumulatively we’re in a dire situation. I worked near the Arctic fishing and the demise of the environment is startling.
How long did you get to observe it? Such a beautiful part of the world!
Arctic fisheries are projected to be biggest Growth zone, up to +5
Svalbård catch is more diverse and Arctic Norway is damming river to keep salmon out! Carcasses destroy river ecology, so many !¡!
Transition on NorthAm or Siberia may be different
Thanks for your honest content. Appreciate the work and thought that goes into your programs and offering best wishes to all those who are involved in making this informative material available in an understandable format. Mostly, personally, I find myself reacting in a philosophical way to this kind of information. My carbon footprint is as low as I can manage. Unfortunately almost every single thing I can afford to purchase is wrapped in plastic. Plastic which is formed from fossil fuels and manufactured thru fossil fuel burning processes. I didn't ask for or choose this for my world, and my heart breaks for the global situation. I don't understand the greed that drives this all, or the unbalanced situation that has created this mess. I think on these matters daily, but I keep my heart hopeful thru my buddhist practice and prayers.
In 1984 I worked selling supplies to the oil companies in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska and actually drove trucks out onto the ice cap off the northern Alaskan coast to deliver things from welding machines to compressed gasses and welding rod. The job went away when oil prices went from $35/bbl down to $16/bbl. Horrible industry to work in.
We cannot eat, drink, breath, wear $$$$. Money is a story we believe in. Can be very useful. Unfortunately we've confused the biosphere, source of all life,with a thought
Not much to think about anymore. It's already too late. Strap in, buckle up, it's happening. Move away from the coasts.
Move away from the equator too. And move away from the deep interior where it has already been over 100 degrees anytime in the last 10 years.
Announcement over the Titanic's PA system: "there will be an excellent multimedia presentation this evening on the various features of this amazing ocean liner and the various scenarios that could nullify its unsinkability. Refreshments & fresh pastries will be served."
Great piece as always! ❤ (The importance of growing ice and salinity of sea water is surprinsingly rarely mentioned in explanation of the water circulation...)
Thank you sir. Your video is both useful & informative.
Fossil fuel industries be like "if I've got to die, I'll take you all with me!"
I see it more like. "I'm getting rich and the rest of you can go to hell"
It's always mindboggling that companies like Exxon at one point were investing heavily in both PV panels and climate change research. Imagine the massive amounts of money they would have today if they had intensified their research and worked with automobile industrials to develop EVs faster. They would have reached the trillion dollars in worth a long, long time ago.
They don't understand consequences at all. If you wonder why, these entities are owned by people who does not understand these concepts. They are sociopathic, greedy beyond any means, and it is making them blind.
I understand your anger at private fossil fuel companies. But most fossil fuels are produced by state owned companies and these countries rely on the revenues from FFs for their continued existence. If any of the Petro states stopped producing oil they would collapse completely. That is a helluva catastrophe to willingly inflict upon your citizenship.
@@Linterna001 Yes but then the managers had to do work and invest which means short term losses and nobody wants to wait for money. (sarcasm btw.)
Doomsday Dave is pulling no punches and rightly so. Carry on, Dave!
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
Doomsday Dave 🤣
I have done what I can afford to do. The only thing that burns fuel is my 17 year old car. I really don’t see a positive outcome. Glad I haven’t had children.
Running an old car is a good thing. People don't realise that the energy used to produce a new car is the equivalent to about a quarter of what the car will consume during its lifetime.
And hats off to you for not breeding. Less people equals less pollution and more habitiat for other species. In any case, young people now simply don't want to go through the monotonous drudgery of childrearing like their mothers did. You'd have to be egocentric and naive to voluntarily want to add new humans into this massively overpopulated world with rapidly degarading environment due to human-induced climate change..
we need your voice and time and energy more than your money :)
You are probably already aware of the book Breaking Boundaries and the Netflix documentary of the same name. Your reports are always balanced and full of factual content so I will continue to support it.
Thank you. One of the few voices of reason on this platform
It´s the humidity that hurts, it´d be nicer without all that moisture, but if you wanna warm it up I won´t stop you.
I’m an aged horticulturist and I’ve seen with my own eyes in my own area the horrible losses and changes in my life…birds, insects, plants, reptiles and amphibians in my area have declined to basically zero. I see some birds and bugs but very few and plants bloom off season and no more frogs or turtles seen in years.
I have seen the soil change becoming more crumbly, friable and the air drier this was around 2013-2015. Earthworms vanished county region wide 4 yrs ago.
I think there will be NTHE and the best we can hope for is mass die offs and reverting back to hunter gatherers. I actually think the last human will eat the next to last. There will be nothing left.
Mt House has best tasting freeze dried meals. Learn and practice making a fire and basic tools from unprocessed wood…logs and limbs.
And I think it could begin now to within the next 10-20yrs. I do not see how we can survive 30-50 more yrs based on the rate of loss and changes I’ve witnessed the past 50.
Birds and bugs used to fill the skies and air everywhere anytime you looked. Look at old pictures..there are always birds in the sky….now I can go a week or more and never seen one. Been over 20yrs since I’ve cleaned a bug off my windshield. In 1980 u couldn’t drive 30 min without having to stop and clean windshield off.
Good luck
that is overly pessimistic and sounds more like an add, actually.
@@scribblescrabble3185 2021 & 22 springs in Rome. Two nights were warmer than the days D75F and two nights got to 80F. ALL vegetables stopped growing. Immature fruit just rotted on plants did not mature. This is not a thing known to the public or predicted. Happened in Augusta this spring.
You are correct. It’s sounds overblown and way out of proportion…because it is. It is seeing one of the asteroids…not like seeing it is happening and I’m seeing it. I called every research horticulturist I could find on the planet. Some of us cried. We all see it.
That isn't global warming, it's the over use of pesticides and other POPs.
It's REALISTIC
I'm glad I'm not the only one observing this. I live in Malaysia and it's supposed to be a jungle but in the past 10 years, I've seen the jungle lose copious amounts of leaves, the vines are killing the trees because neither can find enough water, 7 years ago bugs were always coming into my house at night. I'm glad the wolf spiders aren't around but neither is anything else. The geckos which used to get to be 8 inches long are 1 inch and even the ants are nowhere to be seen. I used to have tiny to 1/2 inch ants, many varieties, but the last couple years there are none in my kitchen or porches. I put out seeds for the birds and planted a yard full of food for them, created a birdbath so I have a variety of birds. They were joyous when I did this. Malaysians saw the first whale ever on the east coast a few days ago. Looking for food? I don't know.
I would like to see a US map of investment property owned or invested in by corporations, Millionaires, Billionaires, and Politicians and overlay it with a sea level rise and extreme weather risk assessment. i don't think that until those properties start becoming stranded assets and these folks start seeing falling numbers in their portfolios that much change will happen on a large scale.
You seem to mean well, but bringing up this tired chestnut in a different clothes doesn't make it any stronger. The rich can enjoy their beachfront properties for decades and can just jack up the mansion and truck in more sand after each hurricane. The multiple worsening catastrophes from climate change hit the poor worst, not the rich.
The rich with billions invested in fossil fuel Industries generally react by increasing disinformation and funding denialist right-wing agitators and politicians.
Derp.
Johan Rockstrom has an extended interview with Nate Hagens too which is a bit of a must watch.
Great channel
Holy bonkbucket. You've reached 584K subs?! Great job. Love the content!
New one on me.
@@tonyduncan9852 Superb! Welcome!
The way you presented this and your comment about galvanizing the community. Actually made me think about maybe changing how I approach emissions myself. I typically think I'm too small to make a difference. But if we all make that small difference it would make a big difference.
I used to smoke that hopium pipe 🙏🧘💔
Anyone with grandchildren should be really worried.
Anyone with children under about 30, I think
11:59 Absolutely love you for this - keeping us informed and inspiring us to make what waves we can, to influence a more positive outcome. 🙏
Thanks Dave for another important and informative, if rather disturbing, video.
This November, I've a seat booked on a flight from Montreal to Phoenix, to visit my sister, whose health is poor.
Over the last fifteen years, I've slowly changed from a climate activist into a climate "doomer". I'm not proud of it, but it's simply my reality. I'm a working man, and taking the train/bus diagonally across North America is not feasible within ten days of vacation.
When I "just have a think", I feel ashamed and want to bury my head in the sand...
don't feel that way. You should be proud. You know what is happening, unlike many. You tried to do something about it, unlike many. Now you are a realist. We have to live the best way we can.
Just have a panic attack
No need to panic just sit back and watch the world go bye.
Might I recommend breath work, ice baths, meditation, yoga. As the breakdown becomes more obvious you don't have to face it in panic mode.
@@Knifymoloko Serious question. How do any of these measures help without an actionable political strategy? In the absence of a robust global workers' movement capable of seizing control of GHG-emitting industries and rapidly steering them towards carbon-neutral and carbon-negative modes of production, the best case scenario is climate hospice and right now the short-to-medium-term strategy is very clearly climate apartheid. Governments and politicians in northern temperate countries are now going out of their way to demonize and dehumanize the most immediate victims of climate change -- most of whom are among the least culpable thanks to the suppressed economic development -- migrating from the tropics in search of economic stability (e.g., Trump's absurd claim regarding Haitian migrants are eating cats and dogs).
These same capitalist-funded parties, both liberals and fascists, have not only spent the past half century repeatedly slammed shut the doors and windows to humane climate policy in favor of business-as-usual but have facilitated the mass murder of inconvenient outgroups (e.g., Palestinians) to sustain the otherwise unsustainable imperialist way of life, to keep the military-industrial and fossil energy gravy train rolling decades past the point of no return. Anyone working in essential industries such as healthcare and education can already see signs of breakdown and collapse: these same rent-seeking psychopaths and social parasites funneling subsidies into the military and energy industries are knowingly divesting from the future as schools, hospitals, and post offices face layoffs and closures on a mass scale.
All of these sectors are unionized but the workers' leadership are by and large not aware of the scope of this and the links between these phenomena, or if they are they're only concerned about their little fiefdoms and still allow the state to decide whether they're "allowed" to even go on strike for even a couple days, and even financially support the "moderate" factions (Dems, Blairites, etc.) of the capitalist class laying the groundwork for a global mass starvation and climate pogroms in a pathetic attempt to defend themselves from the openly racist, and all-but-fascist factions dumb enough to say the quiet part out loud.
How am I supposed to stay calm through this when I can't even get away with missing work to better organize an effective resistance? When I can't even talk to my own goddamn coworkers about these issues because half of them read the fucking New York Post's articles dehumanizing the biggest victims in all of this? When I'm stuck on night shifts and have to sacrifice sleep just to go to a protest, never mind effectively intervene in one to steer people away from the same NGO-led and liberal-approved lesser-evilist bullshit? The only thing keeping me going is a combination of unyielding but quiet and latent rage and withering hope for a socialist future and that is probably going to shorten my life expectancy before things are allowed to Actually Happen in the ways Lenin described and meaningfully change by means that aren't easily described on the Internet where Five Eyes agencies are listening.
probably the people who handle the crisis best are the ones who got really depressed quite early and are now even a little bit interested to see how exactly the disaster will unfold.
Trouble is, most people live entirely in the present, and don’t really care about anything else. Perhaps looking forward to their next holiday or paying off the mortgage. And most people in power are old and cynical or worn out by the struggle. Do the young ones care when they’re not on their phones? It’s a bit of a worry.
And all the critters we share the planet with. It’s not their fault.
My blood pressure is certainly destabilized for the next 4 years after November 5th, and this video locked that in. Waiting for something to happen isn't a viable solution anymore. Action must take place.
Excellent. Thank you!
great video
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
It's very upsetting to mention the average temperature projections (1.5C) and not also include that ITS A 30 YEAR LAGGING INDICATOR, an average of the last 30 years.. When we have already started measuring global temps over 1.5C, to not mention that and still claim we are around 1.2C is asinine and frankly a huge injustice to the lay person who wants to get involved. If you're going to inform people, INFORM them please
No pal of Mike Mann but he had point... planet was +2 for a couple days in 1998 Niño but we don't like in '25 years after +2'
there is a big flooding in central Europe even worse than in 1997 ,but a week ago journalists alarmed that you could walk through Vistula river due to draught and find artefacts left by Swedes
Artifacts left when the river was low
Yeah, here in Czechia we've gone from hottest August on record, hottest first week of September on record (32C) to "once in a century" floods. In the space of a few days.
@@Beckford4000 Same here in Hungary.
The climate is attempting to adjust to our changes, in doing so it travels through a chaos time, when things don't go they way you'd expect them to.
The "good news" is that eventually our emissions will stop rising and level off, when that happens the climate will "catch up" and then things will stabilize into our new climate.
Clearly we're some time away from that happening, and the oil industry would like us to take even longer, if they can use more lies to keep us wasting a valuable resource.
@@Beckford4000 We here in eastern Austria are currently in a 250 year flood. The danube is only 40 cm before its all time high 8m in 2013. We just have to prepare for more extremes far more often.
Well researched and presented. Thanks.
Is it really?
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
I appreciate your thoughtful analysis of the situation, which is starkly shocking and truly difficult to see around. As the rivers of Alaska have been running red due to iron leaching from permafrost, the devastating effects on aquatic life from metals leaching into streams brings the realization that we are already in a catastrophic ecological situation. While we may feel we have some time to spare, I am afraid time is running out far too quickly. The fact that only about 1/4 of the ice that was present in 1979 is still present shows how rapidly the big picture has changed. I see no clear shift politically at the moment that would reflect an understanding of the facts. I almost feel a sense of urgency that our existential crisis is being met with a cynical indifference while Rome burns. At this point, both prayer and political will must take action.
In 2044 I will be in 92 and given my current health problems, probably in Heaven. Hope to see you there. This program should be necessary viewing to all people . Vaya con Dios.
@grindupBaker Si I will Jesus guaranteed it.
Thank you for what you are doing.
Too many people. That's the number 1 issue.
Exactly. Warming hasn't killed anything.
Finally! Someone pointed out the elephant in the room! This planet simply cannot sustain 8bn individuals. Earth resource overshoot day was on August 1st and gets earlier every year. The single biggest individual impact you can have on the CO2 emission is to have one less child.
To some degree this might be correct.
Most civilisations have been wiped out by rapid weather changes.
We need to dig down as in old Turkey - subterranean living; for either increasing warmth or the coming ice-age.
Plus grow food every-which-way we can. Minimise starvation as much as possible.
Yep. And that the conservatives are touting "population decline" as an issue is insane.
@@NMPT777 All political parties are shrieking about this.
I have noticed the wind & Humidity climb over the years living in Rockingham West Australia .More wind from the South these days. It makes sense with Central Australia getting hotter but what about when the south pole melts. No more cold ice to cool use anymore. We have already gone over a tipping point.
I want to share a sentence I heard last year, with respect to the common view that individual action has little effect: We have to be aware that we are the system, when we act, this is already system change. That means we shouldn’t think that the system and us are two separate things, we are the system and when we act the system already changes. Others see our actions, our buying decisions, our choices of means of transportation. So individual action has a big impact, not just for one legislation period, but for our entire lives.
Another great report, Dave.
Although the fact that You consider those IPCC conclusions to be valuable sources doesn't work on Your favour.
All IPCC reports and conclusions have always been way too optimistic and the newer version we read, the greater hiatus between them and observed reality we notice.
Definitely, we are going straight towards the world 4-7°C warmer than in preindustrial age and an inertia of the entire incredibly massive system means, that it has to happen even if we cease any greenhouse gases emissions today. But obviously we will not cease them and global GHG's emissions keep rising even now.
IPCC puts forcing by human emissions at 2W/m2. How is that causing anything more than 0.3C? Do you know?
According to research (Pistone et al. 2019) a summer-ice-free Arctic ocean would be equivalent in extra warming to about 25 years of our global CO2 emissions. And that is just the albedo effect, it does not include resulting methane emissions. If 'only' 1% or 15 gigatons of methane is emitted from the permafrost, it would be equivalent in heating to at least 30 years of global CO2 emissions.
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
That's very optimistic to think the curve is going to bend back down to just 3C. The shape that the curve is now is going to 5C, or more.
Even if we stop warming, A23 is going to melt competely, how much sea level rise will that account for? And can we stop the warming before another chunk breaks off from somewhere?
Perhaps you could tell us about the catastrophe which befell the Earth last time the Arctic Ocean melted completely in Summer during the Holocene Thermal Optimum 6-7000 years ago.
Hansen's paper says +11m. It just isn't very sure at what date.@@angelaburcher7570
@@romanpolanski4928
Migrants
do you have a peer reviewed source saying 5C is baked in? because that is not a general consensus at all
Very lucid, very clear. In the vein of Johann Rockstrom's superb presentation. Well done. The problem is, given such leadership, will enough of the populations up the required urgency and
take the necessary actions/sacrifices?
Thanks for enlightening us viewers. The sad part is this won’t make it to big media.
Thank you for your work!💚
Well at least we created a lot of shareholder value. 😂
I'm stoked on how much value the shareholders have gained! I'll let my kids know that when we have no food to eat in 30 yrs
@@n1ckf00c With the current economy it sure won't take as long as 30 years before we can't eat anymore.
Keep them coming Dave
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p
@@OldScientist yeah, but what about the folks that get on enviro-fear porn?
Yet everyone still drives to work, by themselves, in a 1 tonne car 🙄
More like 2 tonnes!
Because they have to. If they don’t work, they don’t have money for food, water, shelter 😑
@@JohnSpartan-117 many of those people could and should ride an e-bike or take public transit.
@@skierpage They can’t do that if they live beyond a certain distance from their work, or the public transportation in their country is absolute ass.
Quite why offices round the world returned to BAU on spite of the massive amounts of cash that could be saved by closing offices is beyond me. At least for every office I've ever worked in where it's just been a computer at a desk more or less. If all those office workers worked from home, no need to commute.
I don't need anymore eye openers. When we actually have solutions that world wide we are all working on, that video I will watch. At this point more information about how bad it is not helping me, considering none of the information is as bad as I thought it would be over 2 decades ago. Which is the only comforting thing, we still have a glimer of hope. Until someone in power speaks and say something like directing a hurricane.
Love your work.
12:00 - positive and affirmative action such as more UK airport expansions?
that is about it. Bigger airports, more oil and gas exploration, more coal power plants and subsidies for fossil fuels.
Thank you dave for being direct with the data and doing as much as possible. Your question of how do the changes look in my life have inspired me to eat less meat (with a long term goal of becoming something close to vegan with the help of a nutritionist), consume less electricity and move as much as possible using exclusively public transport and/or walking. As a student of physics, I hope to be of any aid in this war for our future.