Once again, the content is great and informative. You my friend, are under the radar when it comes to content in this specific market. Keep up the good great work!
Oh that was you who was pumping my bags? Thanks dude! Haha. I picked these up for less than a couple bucks a pop around 2017-18. I kept a few for my stash but sold the rest during the hype. Great breakdown on the overall experiment. This should be a lesson to wannabe buyouters.
You're the man for openly sharing the data and giving your analysis! Shame that there was an explosion of intrest in The Dark that muddies the data a little, but still cool af. This is real, quality, MTG finance related content. Thanks for the video!
Really appreciate that feedback, thanks for the comment 🙂 I also would love to see what happened with another 10k at this one card, but alas I need that budget for alpha cards during this market 😅
@@AlphaHoarder Totally understandable. Amazing that you did it once AND SHARED THE RESULTS! Truly the upper echelon of MTG finance related content. I'll be sending any person I meet who is interested in MTG collecting/investing/whatever to your channel! May the hoard grow ever larger with NM copies... ✌
Great experiment. I'd love to see you doing this to a RL card that actually see's play. This is such a niche card for people who collect The Dark (?), but with your resources you could probably make a lot bigger movements in the market. Just look at the price graph of cards like Mox Diamond, Lion's Eye Diamond.
I’m curious about that as well, it was the main variable missing from the test. Furthermore, the difference in movement would tell us a lot of interesting things about the portion of the market that is player based vs collectors based. ….But I don’t want to mess with card access so I don’t plan on trying that at this point. Appreciate the comment!
Very interesting and informative. Great video, can't wait to see how the market data looks around year-end. Imagine if you used a useful reserve list card played in commander to see how its market responds, and use that data and compare to this buyout. Thanks for this video!
@@AlphaHoarder i think that totally depends on your audience. I would listen to this stuff all day. Like you said it’s often not made public. You are like the wizard of oz pulling back the curtain
This exorcist is a great card. I like the old skool cards that affect across the color pie. Reminds me of great MTG. another very spicy video Mike. I feel like.. Uughh aawww UUUrrrggggg, ahhhh !! Demons, out! , another successful exorcism.
Great content. Buying ~20% of the available supply the first week was maybe a little aggressive, but like you said the dark was probably going to spike regardless of what you did.
Yeah live and learn … I hope I didn’t kick off the spike in that card myself, but it’s possible. The Dark was heating up so possibly it was with or without me. If I ever did another one (I won’t) I’d do a couple a week tops.
I've done similar in the past with similar results. I have done a handful of coordinated buyouts on cheap (at the time) RL cards ranging from Urza's block back to Antiquities. The price was easy to spike in all cases and I used less than $1k in each case. All that needs to be done is to wipe out the NM and LP copies (though, I have found that the vast majority of people over grade their "NM" cards and the "LP" crowd under grades, so to me LP is the move to make as once the price spikes someone else will gobble the NM copies for you). Once a big enough run gets started on LP/NM then the tracking websites (MTG Stocks as an example) will pick up the change and it will likely hit the Top Movers list. Once the card hits that list then it's game on until prices get way too high relative to it's starting price. The Urza's cards did not hold their price. There are just too many of them. I was able to reprice one card at about 5x it's original price, but the card had been ignored for way too long and is/was much better than it had been given credit for (that buyout was in late 2020). The others took a month or 3 to snap back to their old-ish price (they all bumped a little). The older cards have a much better chance at being re-priced, as would be expected.
I wanted to add one thing about the depth of market on The Dark U1's. From the numbers I've seen, and you can go verify, there are as many The Dark U1's as Arabian Nights C5's. My guess is doing a buyout on an unreprinted Arabian common (C5 or C4, e.g. Stone-Throwing Devils, Desert Nomads, Army of Allah, Camel) would find a much more shallow depth of market as a lot of Arabian commons were played to death back in the early 90s before sleeves became truly widespread. And we know at least one of those commons will never get reprinted.
Good point. Age and playability are definitely factors in attrition. Also collectibility… I suspect by now many collectors (and possibly hoarders?) have removed Arabian Nights cards from circulation, in a way not seen in The Dark. Appreciate that comment.
I'm curious to see how much one could affect the market by buying out a playable reserved list card. Something that already has high demand, but relatively cheap and low print run. Also, I was buying Exorcist at this time, too. But I got my 4 and bounced! Lovely pile, all the same!
Agreed, that would be a more informative experiment, although the playable ones with low printruns tend to be expensive already. Glad you got your copies in hand 👍
When you create fear of missing out and fall for it yourself. Very interesting. Now you should try the second part of this game, selling all those cards, and see which average price you end up getting after all the expenses. I wonder how could that be structured. You could list a few copies and reduce the price Y% per week until you sell them, and then either immediately list again, or wait some amount of time, or wait until prices rise X% to list cards again… I’d bet that generally this is a losing game where the only ones making money are middle men…
I expect your very last point is 100% right. Buyouts don’t create organic demand, and the amount of fees involved with selling cards, even assuming I could move them at breakeven prices, basically guarantees a net loss. The only way this works is if you can actually corner market, and the card is actually demanded. Say, Gaea’s Cradle. But the capital required to do that is absurd.
@@AlphaHoarder But in that case if you win money is not because of cornering the market, that has costs for you. If you make money is because you bought something that was undervalued. The only benefit of buying many copies if that this appreciation would happen faster.
i snatched up almost 500 copies of a card starting in Aug 2021 and the price went from around $3 at Card Kingdom and now it sells for around $14.....seems the market place seems to think $12 to $30 is the "new rate".....i've noticed when i'm not buying, the prices go down meaning i must be having some effect on the market.....
If you are wondering why alpha living wall is so expensive we'll it is largely due to me. I started buying them when they were $50-$70. I have 66 copies and now you can't touch one for less than $150 in nice shape.
@AlphaHoarder yeah I mainly started it as an experiment, and because I love the art. The fetus is the best! Then it just snowballed into me buying a bunch. I was trying to get 100 copies before it hit $200 in NM but that didn't work out. I'm still buying them, just not as quickly these days.
Interesting! I think I got three of this card, always liked it, and I got it in an EDH deck as well. Cool to see that a high end collector like you likes Drew Tucker, he is kind of underrated, and also one of my favorites (and he's got the best Hymn artwork, just don't understand why nobody else sees it...)! Also, wonder if you are the person behind the ridiculous "Raging Bull" buyout, since you mentioned you had bought out a lesser Legends card?
Anecdotally, it seems most buyouts are done on a budget for $2-10k. That’s really squishy data so don’t put too much stock in it, but that’s what I’ve heard most, and is how I chose the budget here. So I guess the “typical” highest price would depend on the number of listings and the “typical” budget. Hard to say 🤔
There are resources online from people who have done really detailed dives into the topic, and mostly the community goes by those numbers. But in most cases, the numbers are estimates.
Yes, that’s very true. It’s one way to try to isolate variables, but as I mentioned in the video, I’m not sure you can ever shave off enough variables to get the clear data I was hoping for 🤷♂️
Hey mike, my channel wanted to do the same thing. This was a plan of mine for awhile. We inadvertently bought out thr same card. We even said “tag #exorcist army” in thr comments. Just FYI, this wasnt intentional. We wouldve chosen a different card. I hope you dont think this is plagiarism. Im sorry bro, i thought we were targeting a different card.
Ah, no worries! I still check the market status every quarter since this video. If you'd be willing to share any data you collected (copies purchased and average basis), I'd find that useful, and it would allow me to account for the new buyout and keep tracking. If not, no worries. Is the video live? Curious to check it out (I've missed the last several 😫)
I was tracking it until this last December, but post M30 I just burned out on RL stuff. As of then it had totally reset in terms of inventory and price
Maybe the most sophisticated and well done mtg finance video I’ve ever seen, and I’ve been in this arena for years now.
Thank you so much, that’s very generous feedback 🙏🙏
It’s like Rudy grew up, moved out of his parents’ basement and realized his taco jokes weren’t really that funny. Keep it up man
Amazing video mate! I love this kind of market experiments and seeing some actual numbers and u presented it very well. Pristine content!
Thanks so much really appreciate you watching 👍👍
Once again, the content is great and informative. You my friend, are under the radar when it comes to content in this specific market. Keep up the good great work!
Appreciate you slogging through my backlog! And for the kind feedback.
@AlphaHoarder I wish I found ya from the beginning. Great stuff brother.
For every reprint that lowers the value of my collection there is a buyout that brings it back up again, love it 🤣🍻
lol, glad to have been of service in boosting your collection value🍻
Oh that was you who was pumping my bags? Thanks dude! Haha. I picked these up for less than a couple bucks a pop around 2017-18. I kept a few for my stash but sold the rest during the hype. Great breakdown on the overall experiment. This should be a lesson to wannabe buyouters.
Pleased to have been of service 🤣 thanks for watching 👍
Love these videos! You’re my new favorite channel!
Thanks, that makes my day 👍 Especially considering this was literally just a video of a spreadsheet 🤣 u rock.
This is what I'm here for baby, stats and excel documents! Thank you for uploading.
🤣 love it 🤜🤛
Super interesting. Thank you so much for putting all this info together and sharing with us. Fascinating stuff!!
I’m really glad you found it interesting. Not everybody appreciates pages of data 🤣
Awesome video! Exorcist reminds me of Ralph Steadman's art. Thank you for sharing
Thanks for watching 🙏
Good experiment. Thanks!
I appreciate you watching!
Really enjoyed this type of more technical video with rich data. Hope you do more market experiments in the future.
Thanks for that feedback I’m glad some people appreciate this kind of thing 🤜🤛
The more i find this type of content for free, the more i think that the big streaming industry is in big trouble :')
What do you mean?
Thanks for doing this. Fascinating data to a lot of us.
I’m glad you found it interesting 👍 Thanks for watching
You're the man for openly sharing the data and giving your analysis! Shame that there was an explosion of intrest in The Dark that muddies the data a little, but still cool af.
This is real, quality, MTG finance related content.
Thanks for the video!
If I had $10k sitting around, I'd throw it at this card in another 6 months just to see what happens.
Really appreciate that feedback, thanks for the comment 🙂 I also would love to see what happened with another 10k at this one card, but alas I need that budget for alpha cards during this market 😅
@@AlphaHoarder Totally understandable. Amazing that you did it once AND SHARED THE RESULTS!
Truly the upper echelon of MTG finance related content. I'll be sending any person I meet who is interested in MTG collecting/investing/whatever to your channel!
May the hoard grow ever larger with NM copies... ✌
Absolutely fascinating content! Really liking all your videos so far👍🏻
Thanks very much for that feedback 🙏
Love the data. Thanks.
Appreciate you watching
A pentagram of Exorcists. Hardcore bro.
Ha, yeah it’s a suitable look for that card lol
Great experiment. I'd love to see you doing this to a RL card that actually see's play. This is such a niche card for people who collect The Dark (?), but with your resources you could probably make a lot bigger movements in the market. Just look at the price graph of cards like Mox Diamond, Lion's Eye Diamond.
I’m curious about that as well, it was the main variable missing from the test. Furthermore, the difference in movement would tell us a lot of interesting things about the portion of the market that is player based vs collectors based. ….But I don’t want to mess with card access so I don’t plan on trying that at this point. Appreciate the comment!
Very interesting and informative. Great video, can't wait to see how the market data looks around year-end. Imagine if you used a useful reserve list card played in commander to see how its market responds, and use that data and compare to this buyout. Thanks for this video!
Yeah I’ve wondered too, although the useful cards are already much pricier. Thanks for watching!
Thanks for this case study!
Thanks for watching! I’m sure a video just looking at a spreadsheet isn’t that exciting for most people lol but I figured I’d share it anyway
@@AlphaHoarder i think that totally depends on your audience. I would listen to this stuff all day. Like you said it’s often not made public. You are like the wizard of oz pulling back the curtain
This exorcist is a great card. I like the old skool cards that affect across the color pie. Reminds me of great MTG. another very spicy video Mike. I feel like.. Uughh aawww UUUrrrggggg, ahhhh !! Demons, out! , another successful exorcism.
Lol! Thanks for watching Brody 👍
Great content. Buying ~20% of the available supply the first week was maybe a little aggressive, but like you said the dark was probably going to spike regardless of what you did.
Yeah live and learn … I hope I didn’t kick off the spike in that card myself, but it’s possible. The Dark was heating up so possibly it was with or without me. If I ever did another one (I won’t) I’d do a couple a week tops.
Nice experiment very interesting!!
Thanks for watching!
WooHoo! Physics! I'll drink to that.
Cheers 🍻
Very interesting indeed, hopefully got mine before your buyout 😅
Oh shoot, I hope so too! Prices starting getting nutty in late February, when did you get your?
I've done similar in the past with similar results. I have done a handful of coordinated buyouts on cheap (at the time) RL cards ranging from Urza's block back to Antiquities. The price was easy to spike in all cases and I used less than $1k in each case. All that needs to be done is to wipe out the NM and LP copies (though, I have found that the vast majority of people over grade their "NM" cards and the "LP" crowd under grades, so to me LP is the move to make as once the price spikes someone else will gobble the NM copies for you). Once a big enough run gets started on LP/NM then the tracking websites (MTG Stocks as an example) will pick up the change and it will likely hit the Top Movers list. Once the card hits that list then it's game on until prices get way too high relative to it's starting price. The Urza's cards did not hold their price. There are just too many of them. I was able to reprice one card at about 5x it's original price, but the card had been ignored for way too long and is/was much better than it had been given credit for (that buyout was in late 2020). The others took a month or 3 to snap back to their old-ish price (they all bumped a little). The older cards have a much better chance at being re-priced, as would be expected.
Appreciate that added data, very interesting stuff 👍 And yes, the over-grading problem is real 😩
I wanted to add one thing about the depth of market on The Dark U1's. From the numbers I've seen, and you can go verify, there are as many The Dark U1's as Arabian Nights C5's. My guess is doing a buyout on an unreprinted Arabian common (C5 or C4, e.g. Stone-Throwing Devils, Desert Nomads, Army of Allah, Camel) would find a much more shallow depth of market as a lot of Arabian commons were played to death back in the early 90s before sleeves became truly widespread. And we know at least one of those commons will never get reprinted.
Good point. Age and playability are definitely factors in attrition. Also collectibility… I suspect by now many collectors (and possibly hoarders?) have removed Arabian Nights cards from circulation, in a way not seen in The Dark. Appreciate that comment.
Cool video, thanks for the info. I like the Dark, but there’s so much more of it compared to ATQ, which is still obtainable.
Thanks for watching. Yeah for sure, I believe the print run on this card is about 50% higher than the Ashnod’s one.
I'm curious to see how much one could affect the market by buying out a playable reserved list card. Something that already has high demand, but relatively cheap and low print run. Also, I was buying Exorcist at this time, too. But I got my 4 and bounced! Lovely pile, all the same!
Agreed, that would be a more informative experiment, although the playable ones with low printruns tend to be expensive already. Glad you got your copies in hand 👍
When you create fear of missing out and fall for it yourself.
Very interesting. Now you should try the second part of this game, selling all those cards, and see which average price you end up getting after all the expenses.
I wonder how could that be structured. You could list a few copies and reduce the price Y% per week until you sell them, and then either immediately list again, or wait some amount of time, or wait until prices rise X% to list cards again…
I’d bet that generally this is a losing game where the only ones making money are middle men…
I expect your very last point is 100% right. Buyouts don’t create organic demand, and the amount of fees involved with selling cards, even assuming I could move them at breakeven prices, basically guarantees a net loss. The only way this works is if you can actually corner market, and the card is actually demanded. Say, Gaea’s Cradle. But the capital required to do that is absurd.
@@AlphaHoarder But in that case if you win money is not because of cornering the market, that has costs for you. If you make money is because you bought something that was undervalued. The only benefit of buying many copies if that this appreciation would happen faster.
i snatched up almost 500 copies of a card starting in Aug 2021 and the price went from around $3 at Card Kingdom and now it sells for around $14.....seems the market place seems to think $12 to $30 is the "new rate".....i've noticed when i'm not buying, the prices go down meaning i must be having some effect on the market.....
It’s so interesting how a single person can cause so much movement! Did CK’s buylist go up on it as well?
@@AlphaHoarder can't say....i didn't have the wherewithal to check before i started and it's not on their buylist right now....
If you are wondering why alpha living wall is so expensive we'll it is largely due to me. I started buying them when they were $50-$70. I have 66 copies and now you can't touch one for less than $150 in nice shape.
That’s awesome! I knew there had to be a living wall guy out there somewhere 🤣 the art is so cool and iconic. So you hold like 1.5% of the print run!
@AlphaHoarder yeah I mainly started it as an experiment, and because I love the art. The fetus is the best! Then it just snowballed into me buying a bunch. I was trying to get 100 copies before it hit $200 in NM but that didn't work out.
I'm still buying them, just not as quickly these days.
Interesting! I think I got three of this card, always liked it, and I got it in an EDH deck as well. Cool to see that a high end collector like you likes Drew Tucker, he is kind of underrated, and also one of my favorites (and he's got the best Hymn artwork, just don't understand why nobody else sees it...)! Also, wonder if you are the person behind the ridiculous "Raging Bull" buyout, since you mentioned you had bought out a lesser Legends card?
Completely agree! He’s def underrated. No, Raging Bull was not me. Whacky card, that one lol
Too technical and geeky? Try us! Nice experiment and interesting data!
Thanks for watching 💪💪
What's the highest price range of cards at which buyouts happen?
Anecdotally, it seems most buyouts are done on a budget for $2-10k. That’s really squishy data so don’t put too much stock in it, but that’s what I’ve heard most, and is how I chose the budget here. So I guess the “typical” highest price would depend on the number of listings and the “typical” budget. Hard to say 🤔
How do you check a card's print number (amount printed)?
There are resources online from people who have done really detailed dives into the topic, and mostly the community goes by those numbers. But in most cases, the numbers are estimates.
I bought one NM a month ago for $40. I didn't have any issue paying that price until now.......
Just kidding. This cracks me up! 😂
Uh oh my bad lol!! I owe you $17. Thanks for watching 🙂
Amy Weber's Time Walk ❤
I know, right?? Epic…..
If you buy a large amount of 1 card it does reflect the market
Yes, that’s very true. It’s one way to try to isolate variables, but as I mentioned in the video, I’m not sure you can ever shave off enough variables to get the clear data I was hoping for 🤷♂️
Hey mike, my channel wanted to do the same thing. This was a plan of mine for awhile. We inadvertently bought out thr same card. We even said “tag #exorcist army” in thr comments. Just FYI, this wasnt intentional. We wouldve chosen a different card. I hope you dont think this is plagiarism. Im sorry bro, i thought we were targeting a different card.
Ah, no worries! I still check the market status every quarter since this video. If you'd be willing to share any data you collected (copies purchased and average basis), I'd find that useful, and it would allow me to account for the new buyout and keep tracking. If not, no worries. Is the video live? Curious to check it out (I've missed the last several 😫)
Where is the follow up?
I was tracking it until this last December, but post M30 I just burned out on RL stuff. As of then it had totally reset in terms of inventory and price
do u own any gamma magic be cool to see a vid on them
I do not, but those things are very interesting indeed!
@@AlphaHoarder there so obscure ive never heard anyone talk about them
Référencement
Thanks for sticking around 🤜🤛
Dope i will use this because i want to destroy the market so players have no cards to play
You must use the data for good not evil 😈
lol
#DonateRLBuyOut
Not to Rudy I assume 😁