Always very clear and usefull. Enjoy a lot your videos and i am very impressed by the way you count at the speed of sound your hands ! I love as well the way you think loughly and rightly. A funny point to note : In France we have a very old game, played by king louis XIV, based on 32 cards, named " Le nain jaune". Le nain jaune is a special card of the game, it is the seven of diamond, your B card. Funny isn'it ?
Board 5, well played. I played it the same way also in 7NT. Your comments missed some points though. You were questioning if the heart finesse better than the squeeze. The hand reminds me of a Hideous Hog comment I vaguely remember, something like, "who needs a finesse if it is on?"... The answer is, if the finesse works, the squeeze is almost guaranteed. It'll be a double squeeze with both stopping clubs east stopping hearts by assumption, and west presumably stopping spades. Or East (as per the actual hand) is guard squeezed holding both the major stops and a club honor. In that case on the second to last diamond East must either give you the 13th in one of the majors or come down to honor small in clubs. And then on the last diamond again either hand over a major trick or bare the honor after which club to the K and club finesse does the job. Playing AK will only fail in two instances, 1 West stops both majors and East (partially) stops clubs, in which case nothing works. If West has QJ of clubs and both majors stopped it's west deciding on the penultimate diamond to hand over a major trick or to bare QJ of clubs. Or major stops are split but you can't work out who's has spade T and who has heart Q, which seems unlikely. Also given the fact you are declaring so not visible to east who in that case would discard Spade T or heart Q rather than giving up the club stopper as partner could have spade 9 or heart J. (this happened to me (spade T discard) on a slightly different auction). So overall 7NT will almost always make by playing AK of hearts, the finesse is 50%. 7 Diamond is basically the same play, it adds Q3rd in hearts with West to the wins regardless of card reading, and with Q3rd in East 7NT will probably still make as explained with the NT play above, Except it needs better reading the of opponents carding as the 9 of spades is now visible. So roughly the same odds, 7D better but only slightly I'd say.
On hand 5 would it be appropriate to respond to opener with a jump shift showing opener immediately that you a powerful hand? It seems to me that if you take it slowly there is risk of partner ducking out. I thought the 3D rebid a bit supine.
Partner can't ever pass 1H so you will get to see them limit their hand or you can bid fourth suit forcing. I don't usually play 2H as strong but when you do it should usually be definitely at least a 5+ card suit.
1 NT will sometimes work pretty good with regards to Matchpoints overtricks, and the occasional 3NT swindle. It will also be pretty good at ending up in ridiculous 2 spades contracts or being in the wrong game, and missing minor slams. On balance it won't make much of a difference. I'd say do it if the state of a match demands you get a swing, and you have a partner that can live with such a decission. If either of these prerequisites is not in place, than don't.
I had a stinker of a round this week. My only good boards were 4, 5 and 8. Board 8, we matched card for card. Board 5 I just blasted to 6NT over 3D and this induced West to find the bizarre lead of a low club, giving me an easy overtrick. On board 4 the play went a little crazy. After I won the king of spades at trick one, I tried the effect of ducking a diamond entirely. East curiously won the jack ("knowing" it's dropping anyway I suppose) and switched to the ten of hearts, jack, queen. Another spade back and East would do well to duck again, but instead the bot won, and, rather than continue a spade to at least burn the board entry, switched back to hearts, and not just any heart, but the KING, so I literally could not go wrong. One diamond hook later I claimed ten(!) tricks. Not enough to get me to 50% for the game, sadly.
We essentially tied, trading overtricks on 4 and 8. On 4, I ducked two diamonds to set up a club discard and claim the beer card. On 8 your "misplay" goaded west into tossing a winning heart. 5 was interesting and your squeeze was probably more artful than mine. However, at some point east discarded a club and then falsecarded the Q from Qx when I led a club to hand. That gave me a restricted choice situation which was superior to the heart finesse.
I do not think B5 was played well. It is true that you do not know what to discard on the last diamond. Still there is merit in playing immediately 5 rounds of diamonds discarding 2 clubs and one heart, leaving the last diamond on the table. Meanwhile the opponents have to find 5 discards and at this point all your options are still open including the heart finesse.
If you played the cards in the right order Q of clubs was not a falsecard at all. In order not to hand you trick 13 in spades or hearts, East had no other option but to bare the Q, so if you read it correctly the finesse was a given, it was a three suit guard squeeze you executed...
@@endthisnonsense7202 As the cards lie you can play the guard squeeze, but it is not necessary and rather risky. If the analysis is correct that East is squeezed in three suits you might just as well play for the double squeeze with East holding spades and West holding clubs and nobody can hold the hearts. The guard squeeze would only be necessary if you had only 11 tricks on top, say a diamond less in dummy and a spade more. Then after 5 diamonds you would need to finesse the clubs and afterwards squeezing East in the majors for a repeating three suit guard squeeze.
@@rainerherrmann7025 You are missing the point. The guard squeeze is a result of playing the double squeeze. The double squeeze with E holding 1 major, West the other and both holding clubs, so a different one than yours. It plays exactly the same. It is just a small additional chance of success on top of the double squeeze in case the guard is with the two majors in East, and it works because you have 12 tricks. The moment you play the penultimate diamond East cannot discard Spade T or Heart Q (although it is possible E will (when I played it Spade T was discarded) as declares hand is invisible if you play NT rather then a diamond contract, so West might have spade 9 or Heart J). And as this is not possible East can only have 2 clubs remaining. So on the last diamond, the squeeze card of the double squeeze again E has to hold on to the two major cards and has to bare club Q, there is no other option other than providing the 13th in a major. If you did play a diamond contract, with spade 9 and heart J visible, it is almost certain E is protecting both Majors, otherwise it would have discarded a non-high major card as partner has it stopped, so in that case the only remaining way to 13 is if East indeed also had a club guard. I'm not stating you HAVE to read this correctly, what I am stating is this certainly was NOT a falsecard from QX, and one MIGHT have recognized it. The double squeeze you suggest is an option too. The drawback of it is it works only with both clubs in West, where split honors is the percentage play.
@@endthisnonsense7202 I know all this and it is obvious. The point I made was nobody in his right mind would take the club finesse after 5 rounds of diamonds, because the guard squeeze is purely incidental and unnecessary. If you had only 11 tricks on top that would be different. Say a clever East does not hold the spade ten but QJxx in clubs and the heart queen and sees the club heart squeeze coming. So he blanks his club honors early. Now taking the club finesse would not be a great success.
The way that GIB played the 2nd hand is very interesting, as you said. Once the ace of hearts was played, felling the 10 of hearts, it appears to be a restricted choice situation. East could play you for K10 of hearts or J10 of hearts. Per restricted choice, if you play randomly from J10 but always play the 10 from K10 or J from KJ, when you play the 10 then it's 2:1 odds that you hold K10 rather than J10, so from AQ9xxxxx, the right play by East is to play a low heart, playing you for K10. But the Robot got it right on this hand (perhaps wrong in general) and played the queen of hearts, dropping your J from your original J10 holding. Is it possible that the Robots know something that we don't, and that their simulations told them it was more likely that you held J10? Or maybe their simulations said that if you did have K10 the contract was a lost cause anyway, so therefore they might as well declare as if you had J10.
At my table, I led an aggressive K of diamonds, followed by another diamond ruffed. Then they led the Ace of trumps, and then - happy days! - they led a small one, leading to 1 down and 100% score for me! :)
I recall advice from Terrence Reese. He said that in assessing partner's pre-empt a good starting point is to assume KQJ to seven with 2-2-2.
Always very clear and usefull. Enjoy a lot your videos and i am very impressed by the way you count at the speed of sound your hands ! I love as well the way you think loughly and rightly. A funny point to note : In France we have a very old game, played by king louis XIV, based on 32 cards, named " Le nain jaune". Le nain jaune is a special card of the game, it is the seven of diamond, your B card. Funny isn'it ?
Board 5, well played. I played it the same way also in 7NT.
Your comments missed some points though. You were questioning if the heart finesse better than the squeeze. The hand reminds me of a Hideous Hog comment I vaguely remember, something like, "who needs a finesse if it is on?"...
The answer is, if the finesse works, the squeeze is almost guaranteed. It'll be a double squeeze with both stopping clubs east stopping hearts by assumption, and west presumably stopping spades. Or East (as per the actual hand) is guard squeezed holding both the major stops and a club honor. In that case on the second to last diamond East must either give you the 13th in one of the majors or come down to honor small in clubs. And then on the last diamond again either hand over a major trick or bare the honor after which club to the K and club finesse does the job.
Playing AK will only fail in two instances, 1 West stops both majors and East (partially) stops clubs, in which case nothing works. If West has QJ of clubs and both majors stopped it's west deciding on the penultimate diamond to hand over a major trick or to bare QJ of clubs.
Or major stops are split but you can't work out who's has spade T and who has heart Q, which seems unlikely. Also given the fact you are declaring so not visible to east who in that case would discard Spade T or heart Q rather than giving up the club stopper as partner could have spade 9 or heart J. (this happened to me (spade T discard) on a slightly different auction). So overall 7NT will almost always make by playing AK of hearts, the finesse is 50%.
7 Diamond is basically the same play, it adds Q3rd in hearts with West to the wins regardless of card reading, and with Q3rd in East 7NT will probably still make as explained with the NT play above, Except it needs better reading the of opponents carding as the 9 of spades is now visible. So roughly the same odds, 7D better but only slightly I'd say.
On hand 5 would it be appropriate to respond to opener with a jump shift showing opener immediately that you a powerful hand? It seems to me that if you take it slowly there is risk of partner ducking out. I thought the 3D rebid a bit supine.
Partner can't ever pass 1H so you will get to see them limit their hand or you can bid fourth suit forcing. I don't usually play 2H as strong but when you do it should usually be definitely at least a 5+ card suit.
Thoughts on 1NT board 7
It could be the right action. Not my style though
1 NT will sometimes work pretty good with regards to Matchpoints overtricks, and the occasional 3NT swindle. It will also be pretty good at ending up in ridiculous 2 spades contracts or being in the wrong game, and missing minor slams. On balance it won't make much of a difference. I'd say do it if the state of a match demands you get a swing, and you have a partner that can live with such a decission. If either of these prerequisites is not in place, than don't.
I had a stinker of a round this week. My only good boards were 4, 5 and 8. Board 8, we matched card for card. Board 5 I just blasted to 6NT over 3D and this induced West to find the bizarre lead of a low club, giving me an easy overtrick.
On board 4 the play went a little crazy. After I won the king of spades at trick one, I tried the effect of ducking a diamond entirely. East curiously won the jack ("knowing" it's dropping anyway I suppose) and switched to the ten of hearts, jack, queen. Another spade back and East would do well to duck again, but instead the bot won, and, rather than continue a spade to at least burn the board entry, switched back to hearts, and not just any heart, but the KING, so I literally could not go wrong. One diamond hook later I claimed ten(!) tricks. Not enough to get me to 50% for the game, sadly.
We essentially tied, trading overtricks on 4 and 8. On 4, I ducked two diamonds to set up a club discard and claim the beer card. On 8 your "misplay" goaded west into tossing a winning heart.
5 was interesting and your squeeze was probably more artful than mine. However, at some point east discarded a club and then falsecarded the Q from Qx when I led a club to hand. That gave me a restricted choice situation which was superior to the heart finesse.
I do not think B5 was played well. It is true that you do not know what to discard on the last diamond. Still there is merit in playing immediately 5 rounds of diamonds discarding 2 clubs and one heart, leaving the last diamond on the table. Meanwhile the opponents have to find 5 discards and at this point all your options are still open including the heart finesse.
If you played the cards in the right order Q of clubs was not a falsecard at all. In order not to hand you trick 13 in spades or hearts, East had no other option but to bare the Q, so if you read it correctly the finesse was a given, it was a three suit guard squeeze you executed...
@@endthisnonsense7202 As the cards lie you can play the guard squeeze, but it is not necessary and rather risky. If the analysis is correct that East is squeezed in three suits you might just as well play for the double squeeze with East holding spades and West holding clubs and nobody can hold the hearts.
The guard squeeze would only be necessary if you had only 11 tricks on top, say a diamond less in dummy and a spade more.
Then after 5 diamonds you would need to finesse the clubs and afterwards squeezing East in the majors for a repeating three suit guard squeeze.
@@rainerherrmann7025 You are missing the point. The guard squeeze is a result of playing the double squeeze. The double squeeze with E holding 1 major, West the other and both holding clubs, so a different one than yours. It plays exactly the same. It is just a small additional chance of success on top of the double squeeze in case the guard is with the two majors in East, and it works because you have 12 tricks.
The moment you play the penultimate diamond East cannot discard Spade T or Heart Q (although it is possible E will (when I played it Spade T was discarded) as declares hand is invisible if you play NT rather then a diamond contract, so West might have spade 9 or Heart J). And as this is not possible East can only have 2 clubs remaining. So on the last diamond, the squeeze card of the double squeeze again E has to hold on to the two major cards and has to bare club Q, there is no other option other than providing the 13th in a major. If you did play a diamond contract, with spade 9 and heart J visible, it is almost certain E is protecting both Majors, otherwise it would have discarded a non-high major card as partner has it stopped, so in that case the only remaining way to 13 is if East indeed also had a club guard.
I'm not stating you HAVE to read this correctly, what I am stating is this certainly was NOT a falsecard from QX, and one MIGHT have recognized it.
The double squeeze you suggest is an option too. The drawback of it is it works only with both clubs in West, where split honors is the percentage play.
@@endthisnonsense7202 I know all this and it is obvious. The point I made was nobody in his right mind would take the club finesse after 5 rounds of diamonds, because the guard squeeze is purely incidental and unnecessary. If you had only 11 tricks on top that would be different.
Say a clever East does not hold the spade ten but QJxx in clubs and the heart queen and sees the club heart squeeze coming. So he blanks his club honors early.
Now taking the club finesse would not be a great success.
Anoda well done; I liked #7 most interesting. tx Peter
(not bc of the beer-card)
The way that GIB played the 2nd hand is very interesting, as you said. Once the ace of hearts was played, felling the 10 of hearts, it appears to be a restricted choice situation. East could play you for K10 of hearts or J10 of hearts. Per restricted choice, if you play randomly from J10 but always play the 10 from K10 or J from KJ, when you play the 10 then it's 2:1 odds that you hold K10 rather than J10, so from AQ9xxxxx, the right play by East is to play a low heart, playing you for K10. But the Robot got it right on this hand (perhaps wrong in general) and played the queen of hearts, dropping your J from your original J10 holding. Is it possible that the Robots know something that we don't, and that their simulations told them it was more likely that you held J10? Or maybe their simulations said that if you did have K10 the contract was a lost cause anyway, so therefore they might as well declare as if you had J10.
My best guess is that they know I have 7 clubs based on the play in clubs and if I have the king of hearts it brings me closer to having a bid.
At my table, I led an aggressive K of diamonds, followed by another diamond ruffed. Then they led the Ace of trumps, and then - happy days! - they led a small one, leading to 1 down and 100% score for me! :)