Stocks May Cool Off After Best Week Of 2024 | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
Вставка
- Опубліковано 5 чер 2024
- WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at www.thoughtfulmoney.com
The Dow just had its best week of 2024.
And the S&P remains on a tear higher from its mid-April lows.
As a result, looking at short-term conditions, stocks have quickly returned to overbought conditions, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
It's likely they'll have a cooling off period over the coming week or two. Expect a retest of the 50 daily moving average. If that holds, that's a very bullish sign that new all-time highs may not be that far away.
Lance and I walk through the charts, as well as discuss the late-breaking consumer sentiment and jobs data, the wisdom of Freddie Mac's proposal to enter the home equity market, and, of course, his firm's latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.
#investing #stocks #jobsreport
0:00 - Intro Remarks
5:20 - Stocks Back To Overbought
18:23 - Credit Spreads
23:28 - Sector Rotation
44:36 - Confidence & Jobs Data Surprises
1:01:53 - Should Gov't Get Into Home Equity Loans
1:16:44 - Is The Pig Out Of The Python Now?
1:26:09 - An Investing Lesson From WW2
1:33:48 - Lance's Recent Trades
_____________________________________________
Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Solicitor.
We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.
We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor in good standing with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.
IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.
Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.
A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE NEWSLETTER at adamtaggart.substack.com (or upgrade to premium to receive our "Adam's Notes" summaries to this interview & all others on this channel, plus the new MacroPass service)
Can you share notes or links to the fast you're doing?
900
In trading, possessing technical analysis skills is not sufficient on its own; discipline and emotional maturity play crucial roles in achieving success. Embracing the mindset of "time in the market vs. timing the market" proves valuable, especially during market fluctuations. I attribute my growing daily earnings to Flora Elkin's valuable insights and daily trade signals, coupled with my commitment to continuous learning, managed to grow a nest egg of around 127k to a decent 532k. Kudos to the journey ahead!
I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this
It's unexpected to come across her name here. She understands every beginner’s intention and fix you to a trading course that matches your capacity, she knows her stuff! Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey. Definitely worth giving a shot!
Investing has proven to be an incredibly beneficial decision. My cryptocurrency profits continue to play a substantial role in growing my overall wealth, reducing my reliance on my salary
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Flora's insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Flora ’s analyses go beyond surface-level trends. She delves into technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis, providing a holistic view of the market.
Love Lance! Happy birthday to my favorite guest.
Happy birthday, Lance. Live long and prosper!
Adam and Lance are some of the hardest working men in finance! Thank you for the content!
Sold several of my Equity positions yesterday for a tidy profit... will wait for the next dip...
Thank you Adam and Lance.
Have a great weekend.
Kudos for doing a 5 day fast! Takes some real willpower!
Get some sleep Adam! We got to have you fresh!! 😎
I'm impressed. Id get a serious case of hangry.
Wow, I honestly thought Lance was in his 40s. Looks great for his age.
Hair dye works wonders!
40s? lmoa...come on dude. Doesnt look anyting like in his 40s
Thanks so much guys! Happy birthday Lance!
Thank you for considering viewers feedback and adding chapter markers. Keep up the great work!
Thank you for your time stamps, helpful!
I remember the last time people had to use their house as an ATM… 😂
Looking forward to the simplevisor walk through.
Thanks to Lance for that awesome and understandable overview of credit spreads!
Happy Birthday Lance! Exercise is the fountain of youth!
Happy Birthday Lance!! Thank you for all you do!!
Happy Birthday Lance and sincer thanks for all you do. Thanks also Adam and hope you enjoy your festivities and have safe travel.
John Tiscione here: Old Nifty Fifty investor who follows up on recommendations... HEY LANCE.. A MONTH AGO MID APRIL YOU SAID TO SHORT GOLD.....THAT DID''NT WORK OUT TOO WELL.
Lance is the best thing since sliced bread
But es, you're right, we should listen to people we disagree with
Brilliant discussion as always
Love listening to you both
Happy Birthday Lance!
Happy Birthday Lance!
Happy Birthday to Lance Roberts!! ❤ & good luck to Adam during this time of weddings and fasting 😭
Thanks in advance for what I'm sure will be another great weekend discussion 🍿 I forgot this was coming out this morning and got excited when I was reminded. Best wishes to y'all for the upcoming week.
Fasting?
@@KittyFloof He mentioned in the beginning he was on his last (5th) day of fasting on a cycle & had slept 3 hours 🥲 honored to have them both still.
Adam please please ask Lance if the simple visor platform does international markets?
Happy birthday Lance!
People will get a home equity loan to pay off and cosolidate other loans.......and then borrow more. Boosting inflation. Adam right, Lance wrong.
Yes. Also agree. Consumers have shown they aren't minded to save and scrimp on anything. So I'd imagine if there's a free lunch they'll take it.
The Peasants will make a deal with the devil if they have the opportunity. Peasants will borrow purchase and consume as long as they have the opportunity it'll regardless of its cost.
@user-jl8yy5ir7s But so what if the banks lose money? Too big to fail bail outs. Cash in voters hands. Win Win, right?
I'm feeling clever after hearing Lance has invested in natural gas, I invested about 10 days ago and it seems to be doing quite well! I guess energy investments can have wild swings. Also happy birthday Lance, appreciate your insights every week.
Good discussion!
Quite a few more UA-cam commercials then usual. Love the plane analogy.
Happy Birthday Lance
Lance says check the credit spreads. Ok, so how do we check them? Is there a special indicator like the vix for credit spreads or a credit spread index etc....
No. It seems you don't have a basic understanding of what a credit spread even is. There are some good intro videos on the Project Finance UA-cam channel
@@luisdetomaso867 Thanks for the comment. I love project finance he does a great job. I have watched every single one of his videos. I have been trading options for 10 years. I have thousands of put spreads, call spreads, condors, and put ratio spreads under my belt. Perhaps I am mistaken but when he says credit spreads I don't believe he is talking about option spreads. Maybe I am just being dense lol but if you can point me to a little more information I would appreciate it.
@luisdetomaso867 @projectfinance is great I have watched almost every video. But unless I am mistaken he is not talking about option spreads he is talking about Bond Spreads
P.S. I agree with Lance that Fannie & Freddie jumping into the 2nd lien market may not directly stimulate things, but that’s only “if” those people who pay off their credit card debt, don’t turn around and rack up debt all over again. Seems like a big “if” to me 🤷🏼♂️
Dang! Fifth day on five day fast, 3 hours of sleep, AND attending a wedding in an unfamiliar location, yet Adam is such a trooper! I'd be looking like Gollum from LOTR and making a blank face. Happy B-day (soon?) Lance - best weekly recap anywhere. Adam please consider also releasing on other platforms, as G. Gammon does, I won't type their names because I've found that can get comments deleted from YT.
5-day fast?
Yep
Whats the quote from the big short? "Short everything this man touched"
Happy birthday 🎁🎂
Even PHDs are getting laid off right now. A sibling of mine has been with a NASDAQ listed science company for 20 yrs and just got laid off. Oh the irony for someone that votes for massive govt funding to support his industry…..getting destroyed by the very fiscal and monetary policy he voted for. He’ll come out on the much better side anyway because of his knowledge and deep connections, but some won’t
This is about to become a white collar recession.
I actually decided to bail out of the jobs market because of so few decent jobs and now am self employed, even though I have two masters. Very financially precarious but at least I'm not labouring for hours every day in something that I don't like, and I am building knowledge of passive investing. There's a book called "why work doesn't pay" (Guy standing) - and in the past decade I've been working on understanding how to supplement my work via investing.
Isn't the huge rally in normally sleepy utilities "per AI" further evidence of a speculative bubble?
Its pretty clear we need to invest more in utility infrastructure in the long run, but sure, that might not justify short term spikes
@user-jl8yy5ir7s the Inflation Reinforcement Act (or Irish Republican Army) is pushing for more electric use over natural gas and gasoline, so there's some support to that story.
@@Erikpdx Needing to invest lots of money in infrastructure means lower profits.
@RichardTN not when the govt is subsidizing it
Are utilities stocks going to rise even with the capex they will have to spend to meet all the increased demand for electricity?
I'd rather own the energy producers than the utilities. With the inflation I expect, the energy costs could soar... but politicians step in and restrict what utilities can charge (because voters)... squeezing margins.
Hi Adam @ Lance any chance of a rate cut this year ? I have a 60/40 stocks/ Bond portfolio. Where do you see the market going this year?
June 😅
@johnalbertson9824 don't forget sideways in between. Real technical stuff.
Expect the Fed to cut short rates, but that will boost inflation expectations and send long rates higher... crushing both sides of your 60/40. Get a position in commodities and commodity producing stocks. Metals, mining, Agri, Energy, etc.
Adam, are you at a rental unit? Where is it and who’s the agent? Thanks
“I’m in debt up to my eyeballs. Can someone please help me?” Classic commercial in 2006/07.
LendingTree
"the markets played out exactly as we thought". We got ourselves a nostradamus here. Who need quants, buffets margin of safety or bet on horses when we have a 100 percent exact(!) hitter for free on this channel.
Everyone drop what you are doing. Drop probability tables and position sizing in an uncertain environment - we know exactly!
If he predicted all of this, what are his returns for the past 1/3/5 years? Bet he won’t say.
Lance’s investing strategy summarized: Buy the Dip
Where do you get that???
Buy the rebound once it gets back above the 20ma or 50ma. Don't buy on the way down. If it heads back down and crosses the moving averages, stop out and wait for the trend to come back
Appears to be a working strategy
LOL. Not exactly the strategy, since he buys protection and takes some profits on overbought positions. Perhaps that's the high level strategy, but to be fair, what other strategy can a manager of a stock portfolio do? They have to hold stocks for long term by definition.
Blue horse shoe likes $BPT & $NFE
Lance, I just turned 61 this week and I feel the same way when I watch movies - I’m I that old too?
Happy birthday lance, even though you will never read it. I will talk crap on Monday morning during your radio/UA-cam show and let you know. I appreciate both of you and I do listen to you almost every morning. I sold about half my portfolio yesterday.😂 Something in me was sick of looking at it. I had a good week but gave half of it away yesterday and I guess was in a bad mood. I don’t consider myself a investor though more of a time frame from five minutes to six months. Do have some long term in my Roth but I treat that different than my other accounts. Think I need to take the week off but I will have to try hard not to open my account.
Adam, you mentioned you and Lance would offer a separate topic on using the new Simplevisor. This was a start, but could be more comprehensive.
Sorry, as I watch the rest of the podcast, you addressed my concern
Good day, gentlemen and ladies
Lance said "very bullish" 73 times today
I like the " sleeper cell ". Happy birth day Lance, blessings for many years ahead
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this very informative content cheers Frank
Scam
I live in the American Gardens building on West 81st. Sometimes I feel as though my mask of Sanity is about to slip.
2008, no jobs, horrible.
2024, forever jobs! Awesome.
Fasting is the best!
Home equity loan interest rate is 1/2 of that of credit bard.
Lance, have you considered the opposite interpretation on the credit spread? Perhaps the market is saying that treasures are mispriced or not rated properly. Maybe there is little spread to BBB because the reality US treasury real credit rate is closer to BBB Instead of AA? Something to consider...
I believe UM over conference board this round.
"Why do people take out HELOC?" People take HELOC because the house price has increased and they want buy more stuff, e.g. second home, RV, new kitchen, new bathroom, vacation, etc. So leverage increases and then when prices drop the drop becomes exacerbated due to the higher gearing.
Yup.
Also happy birthday
what's so special about pcg?
I tried to sign up but said SOMETHING WENT WRONG🙃
What makes Lance so credible, he actually has money on the line, and he is not trying to sell you a newsletter, vs rest of Adam’s guests, they all got a newsletter to sell you. They have zero skin in the game. There is zero consequences when their bearish calls doesn’t pan out, they just double down their bearish call, given long enough time scale, they would eventually be right. If Lance is wrong, his clients are going to pull their money.
Next year when the market crashes 40%, Lance will still be bullish…….😮
He’ll claim he called it
He’ll buy the dip! 😅
He has already long prefaced with the "No one could have seen it coming" excuse. 🤣
How long have you been calling for a market crash and how is that working out for you?
He was predicting a crash for years like all the other BS artists on this channel until stocks did a 180 and went parabolic, then he changed his tune unlike the other clowns on here.
Data, data everywhere but no information. Can we have a regular weekly update on Credit spreads, Liquidity and the Yield curve please, and any other leading indicators? Just a quick snapshot so we can see any changes. I still think Bitcoin is a leading indicator as well.
Fasting is just plain silly
I feel like Lance misses the point of the LOC issue. The reason banks lent to people with no jobs was cuz the govt backstopped those loans.
So, private sector banks’ risk models were upside down.
Same will happen here. The example he gives of we have LOc now if I get one they’ll only give me 40% L/V…yeah now they will. What if Fannie and Freddie buy up LOC from private sector at a clip higher than 40%? Then what? Like they did in the GFC.
Also, what if the private sector banks know that sure I’ll lend to a sketchy FICO cuz…Fannie will save me. It skews the risk profile.
Not to mention the flood of liquidity in the hands of the consumer? Asset bubbles even more.
Lance tends to think he’s the smartest guy in the room always sometimes lol. He’s great don’t get me wrong but sometimes he’s a little inflexible .
Adam, what type of fast are you doing? Im thinking about a water fast so im open to fasting insights.
Popular fast these days is to eat over a six hour period, like 12-6, and fast the other 18 hours. That's sustainable over a long period
@@ErikpdxI do 8:16, I haven’t the last week or so because I got vertigo and I wanted to eat ok, so I knew it wasn’t low blood sugar.
prolonlife.com/products/prolon-offer
@@adam.taggart ill check it out. Thanks
@@Erikpdx I usually don’t eat until 3pm most days. Had one cup of black coffee today at noon and didn’t eat until 5pm. Had my last snack about 9:30pm. Feeling good.
According to Advisor Perspectives, the stock market is overvalued between 88% and 149%, depending on the indicator. This is down from 92% to 154% last month. According to Estimite, the American stock market is currently 65% overvalued, meaning it would need to drop 39% to return to its long-term equilibrium level.
You would think that the number one performing asset over the last ten years (bitcoin) would get more air time.
It gets MORE than enough (hot) air time everywhere else.
Maybe that's why it's been the number one performing asset over the last ten years?
Let's keep Bitcoin our little secret, I'd like to buy more before too many people catch on. It's like the old saying everybody gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve.
@@duanejackson6718 That's NOT an old saying. Can't have an old saying about a new asset. 🤣🤣
@@FreeSpeech4All it's an Abraham Lincoln quote
Stock traders tend to be far removed from reality.
LEST GO!.
I may watch this video in the crepuscular hours of the day.
Good use of the word!
Lance is a renaissance man - an expert at on all topics. Even knows more about the mortgage market than Melody Wright.
This is satire right?
🤣🤣🤣 I know, right?!? 🤣🤣🤣
Economy is being driven my all the excessive spending that has occurred. The future is grim, but for the past two years u should have been following the money. And of course hedging the monetary system.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
Great to see you sir ❤
Adam's final anectdote is known as "Survivorship Bias".
No it all Lance
So market crashes in bubbles never happen.
Quanta services for AI play.
Would be nice if you guys took 15 min and explained to people what is going to happen in 2025 with taxes, if Congress does nothing with the Trump tax cuts.
I think what I realized and and am forced to accept is that since 1971 and end of the gold standard, the government will always double-down on the fiat Ponzi scheme with new ways to help people continue borrowing and spending. In other words, there can never be sound fiscal policy or lending restraint because that leads to a debt collapse/deflation. It's just how the system functions. So yes Freddie Mac will likely allow people to get federally insured HELOC's that otherwise banks would not be willing to extend to borrowers.
Lance lives in TX, he knows how important NG is lol. It works when it needs to.
Excess liquidity + compliant Fed + noisy inflation/jobs data = higher volatility 😊
Lance says he was right,.. the market did exactly what he said it would do,.. A, B or C. Yeahm,
A was it could go up.
B. was ti could go unchanged and
C was it could go down.
How could you be wrong when you cover all possible outcomes?
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Shhhhhhhhh... 🤫 you're giving away the game.
You realize he runs a platform that caters portfolios to a range of clients... right?
@@mazinmeliora He's started to now. Been watching for years and that "multiple portfolio" stuff never came up until about a month ago. 😄🤣
@@mazinmeliora
Riiiight.
You realize that has nothing to do with prognosticating the direction of the S&P 500,.. right?
Especially when only about 5 stocks drive it.
Or if this is the key to being a successful money manager,...we could all do it,..
every week just tell your clients,..
"It could go up,.. but if it doesn't,..
and here's why I make a big commission and take vacations in Europe each year,...off managing your money,... the tricky part,..
...it could go down."
Wake up.
Most of the money managers put their clients money in ETF's.
They don't do much,.. but they have to make it look like they do and do these longbullsheet presentations reading the tea leaves,.. which in the end is nothing but a bunch if IFs.
If it does this then this,...
but if it does that then that.
It's nonsense.
@@mazinmeliora
Give me a break. LOL
That has absolutely nothing to do with prognosticating the direction of the S&P 500.
These money managers provide no value to an average investor.
They make money charging commissions to saps who fall for their TA nonsense which is basically,..
"it could go up,.. but if it doesn't,.. and this is the tricky part,..
and why you pay for my family's annual vacation to Europe,..
(and Lance did go to Europe for a couple of weeks last year and has already said they're going again this year. As a matter of fact,.. he takes several vacations each year)
,.. it could go down.
If these guys knew what they were doing,.. they'd be living on their own private island,.. not trying to mesmerize the gullible with TA alchemy for a percentage of your portfolio.
I received no notification of this video - FYI. I unsubscribed and resubscribed. We’ll see what happens.
Stocks literally only go up
Some seem that way.
Top
Amerizuela.
Its because we are a banana republic now.
Which is sad . Because who buys them , when consumer is struggling
Lance is so smart. He finds so many reasons to be bullish.
I am bullish myself nkt because of data but because of Fed put.
Fed would never disappoint their rich friends ..
Middle class Americans be damnes
So economy weakens and we become a raging bull.
Such is the extent of Fed distorting the market
Lance appears to think like you should. I expect this whole change to allow the government to loosen qualification standards and have the back stop of the government to make sure it stays solvent and provide them future sway over that part of the economy. It has happen to housing, education and more. It is another government nudge under guise of helping that will cause imbalances and an eventual bail out. We seem to never learn.
Lance is never wrong. Funny
that he still has to work at age 59. Must not have satisfied that many clients over the years.
Has to or likes to?
Warren Buffet is still working and hes over 90 ??
@@tactileslutI listened to his show for a few years. Based on his personal stories about his own finances, it sounds like he’s well off but not wealthy. If he is actually a hotshot investor he should be worth 8 figures.
Lance always says that nobody can predict more than 3 days ahead... but yet his worst trade (which he claimed now 2 years ago was the best trade ever) is a macro trade on bonds. 😂😂
Love how he cites that he's down 3% on the current EDB position... ignoring all the losses he took BEFORE EDB when he was long TLT and individual Treasuries!!! 🤣🤣🤣🤣
That's like if I rode Newmont almost all the way down and then sold it for Barrick just before the bottom and said, "I'm barely down in my Barrick position." 🤣🤣
Lance is such a dishonest, deceptive, lying, out-of-touch, PoS tool. 😄😄
Yep. I talked to his firm last year and they are super shady. He’s full of excrement.
We should all agree that we need free markets without government interference. Life could be so good. These politicians are so corrupt and can’t leave things alone… on both sides of the aisle. Although, I think one side is slightly less bad than the other, but I really hate them both.
Rosenberg says a recession is coming... what a wild guess, a recession is always coming... its completely irrelevant if you cant say approx when
Me thinketh Adam, the Titanic sank because of what happened., before the iceberg i.e. complacency.
So reassuring to listen to you guys because it is clear this ship., will reach its.... destination!@?😉
P.S. Lance does actually look like he's........41!@!?😁
Arent utilities defensive
Bidenomics
U Mich changed their method of polling. It is meaningless, because there is nothing to compare it to.
Calling that a cup and handle seems a bit of a ssttrreeettccchhhhhh
I don't buy Lance's narrative when it comes to College. I think there are 2 kinds of degree. Commercially valuable degrees, and ones that aren't. Getting a degree in computer science, statistics or anything else that actually leads to a job still makes a lot of sense. Degrees in classical literature, women's studies, music appreciation and the like are massively oversubscribed because there are only so many positions for historians, professors and women's rights lawyers.
You can learn on the job or teach yourself. Uni doesn't teach the real skills which are important at work. Technical skills only get you so far.
Markets overbought, over-subscribed, over-leveraged!
Fasting is not for me. I. 140 lbs. And love to eat.
Poveretto
I'm hurt that Lance doesnt want to reach out to me via DM