The Quarterback Bust Fallacy
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- Опубліковано 8 жов 2024
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It’s nice to see guys like Geno, Baker and Darnold turn their careers around, but it also makes me a bit sad knowing other QB busts in the past who could’ve done the same thing and never had the chance.
Like Who?
@@WillMuny Maybe David Carr or Tim Couch
@@kevinhenry4047 David Carr went to the Giants and was Mannings back up for 2 seasons, then signed with the Niners. Then went back to the Giants. He had a second chance but was barely a serviceable backup. Couch was just bad.
To me if you can play eventually you will, every team needs QBs. To me the best example of this was Vinny Testaverde. Dude was horrible in Tampa, but not as horrible as the Bucs were. Yet he went on to have a Long and decent career in the NFL.
Now if you want to talk about the players who are not QBs or Pass Rushers not getting a second chance or being drafted into a bas situation I would agree. But QBs and Pass Rushers always get 2nd and 3rd and even 4th chance to prove they can play.
@@WillMuny True. Steve Young as well was a backup for many years. Rich Gannon too.
Ryan Tannehill
It's like KOC said, organizations fail young QBs before the QB fails the organization. We're seeing it now with how he's revived Darnold
Anyone else half-forget that JJ McCarthy existed from how well Darnold's been playing?
18:25 would like to amend this stat just a little. It’s not just over the first four games of a rookie’s career. It’s over the first four games of any season by any QB in NFL history, rookie or not. Originally held by 2007 Tom Brady with 79.2%.
same number of attempts?
@@eva_pilot 100+ attempts is not a small sample size either way. Don't minimize this accomplishment
@@stradify1 lol i wasn't, don't b so sensitive, lil guy
i just wanted to know the number of attempts to get a better picture
@@eva_pilot I believe as far as attempts go, it was 75 minimum to qualify and Brady had 120 in that time frame during the ‘07 season compared to Jayden’s 106.
Love seeing Jayden Daniels in these last two thumbnails and getting a film room break down by brett.
Kollman curse is about to happen now
@@85isaboat53 More like the Kliff Halloween curse
Year after year, we see that more often than not QB failings especially YOUNG QB struggles is mostly on the coaching and organisation.
Justin Fields definitely deserves mention in this, fields has made improvements is multiple areas with the Steelers this year, and he's in a much better situation than Chicago
There is nothing that encapsulates the environment for a young QB with Sam Howell last year and Daniels this year. Howell was thrown into the deep end last year and it was hoped he would eventually swim. The offensive system didn't help him, the OL didn't help him, at times he didn't help himself. On the other hand, there was a plan for Daniels. He went through the process and passed all the gates and the system is friendly to him.
And you see what happens when we get rid of Dan and we start running a competent franchise. Ownership, GM, Coaches, Players all on the same page and like you said there’s a system in place built around the QBs strengths and built to help support the weaknesses. Happiest I’ve been as a Washington fan in quite some time. Just seeing the team being run competently is a major breath of fresh air.
Howell was not good, he lost them a lot of games they shouldn’t have lost. On the other hand, Daniels is helping them win games they shouldn’t win.
@@Colton2418 There weren't that many games we should have won with that awful defense. Also, easier to help win games when you are in an offensive system like he had in college.
@@jbirzer how is that a negative against Jayden Daniels?
Bustin makes me feel good- the Jets front office… probably
Bo Nix was bad this week but this weather was bad. Rodgers was really struggling too. The game i would look into was the bucs game jn which he actually looked really good. He made a bunch if hard throws. What i will say this week the one time we really really needed a throw a 3 and 11 situation, he throws a beautiful ball to courtland sutton. I am not excusing the his game but he made a couple great throws in this game. Also i think the situation this past week was super bad and yet he didnt lose that much confidence. Which admirable. How many times have we seen rookie qbs just lose hope in their ablities and just become terrible. I am confident we will see more bo nix against bucs instead of bo nix against seattle in which he probably loses us that game.
Just from the living room I can tell thats a beautiful house, grats Brett
How quickly we all forget how good Kliffs offenses were in the first half the season, only to be figured out and stopped dead for the entire second half of the season with the cardinals. Every. Year.
Until we see what this offense looks like in week 9-10, until we see any evidence that Kliff can make in season adjustments, saying Washington could win the division is a hot take.
TBF, there was also the whole Kyler Murray's stats thing before/after the CoD release. Every. Single. Season. I'm not saying the two are definitely related, but it's an interesting coincidence.
Maybe Kliff was the problem, maybe it was Kyler, maybe it was both. We may never find out.
@@CreamyPesto505 Kliff's record followed him around from his college days whereas Kyler's CoD narrative was only while he was with Kliff. He was pretty good at the end of last seasonafter CoD release
Facts
His offense is noticeably different from what he ran in Arizona though. Plus he’s just an OC not a head coach. He can focus solely on offense instead of team management, roster decisions, defense, special teams, pressure from the owner and gm, managing a coaching staff….
I’m not saying it’s not possible for the same thing to happen but let’s also not underestimate how different of a role it is to be a coach vs a coordinator
@@SpicyPepperon Kliff def was not a good HC with his lack of weekly/game management. But the thing about his his offensive is that he's great at making run designs. Definitely one of the things that was consistent given he had a runner in Kyler, a healthy Conner and blockers playing heavy personnel. His consistent weakness was making efficient pass concepts especially when teams could take away the run game and make Kyler go away from his primary pass target. So that is one thing to look forward to with Jayden and the Comms offense by Halloween.
From what little we can see the place looks great but I will sure miss the panoramic view of downtown LA in the background... Oh well, this way the great views from the rental places during the summer preview episodes will be extra special.
I think the destination is the most impactful thing in if a prospect fails or not … ofc some prospects will always succeed & some will always fail but most it depends on the coach, scheme, & players around them
14:38 I did notice in Weeks 1-3 that Roquan was getting targeted in MOF because the scheme was too reliant on Roquan to defend MOF. Personally, I like this change because it shows an ability to self scout from Orr and to come up with really good adjustments 4 games into being a DC
It was wild seeing some of our fans calling for Orr to go already like McDonald didn't have issues self-scouting/adjusting his first few games as a defensive coordinator, and that was with a season or two as a college DC, while Orr is a first-time DC.
I was full prepared for it to be mid-October before Orr not showing that ability would become a real concern to me, but he already seems to have figured that out to at least some extent. Improvement that fast makes me very optimistic for him.
We touched on him, we need to touch on him again. love the show
Browns fan here. With regards to Baker in Cleveland… both sides needed a divorce. Baker was losing the locker room and not playing well enough. Obviously the injuries didn’t help. But it really was that Christmas Day game against the Packers. The dude spent like 30 hours playing halo that week while home with covid. We know this to be true. Hell, one of my buddies was in a lobby with him for like 4 hours
The Chiefs have had a weird year, but they are still 4-0, even if they split the rest of their games 7-6, they are still an 11 win team. They have a 2 win lead in the division.
I think if you wanted to get further into the weeds on this subject you could discuss coaching and the effects it has. Greats case studies over the last few years (Tua, Darnold, Baker, and Geno). Coaching is often the biggest piece of the pie imo, guys who are fine like Baker, Darnold, Goff, and Tua need a good coach to play well to mask the major deficiency’s in their game. Guys like Herbert, Allen, Mahomes, and Lamar who are elite aren’t as dependent on a good coach to be baseline good players due to their deficiency’s not being so crippling as to make them a liability when exploited. IE Goffs mobility, Tuas Arm and processing, Bakers inability to recognize his limitations as an athlete, and a damn good scheme to keep Darnold mostly in check.
Shoutout to Nate Tice for the Drew Brees comp for Caleb Williams
The real fallacy is that someone can be fully informed on football 🏈 without watching bootleg every week. The BFP is mandatory viewing material for anyone who wishes to be knowledgeable about the game.
Brett ej love yall but this man is a generational meat rider ^
100%
Agreed, love the way they present such in-depth information that is so easy to absorb.
Only thing I don’t like is how prominent alcohol and gambling are in every video
@MarchOnRome this guy sounds like a great time...
All these 1st round QB’s are super talented they need to land in the right situation and the time to develop.
Talking about structure and not mentioning Fields over halfway through is insane.
The thing that encourages me about Nix's performance against the Jets is that he took 0 sacks and didn't turn the ball over. Against that defense as a rookie is good to see and likely played a role in the Broncos winning that game.
Great talking point. Very frustrating that people who are paid 6/7 figures to understand such topics and make critical decisions to further their organization can not understand such topics 😂
I seem to remember you saying Justin Fields was a bust thought. Or am I just mismembering things
Any day 3 qbs for Carolina next year? Or does a year off help bryce, cause I do think maybe just learning from canales for a year might actually help.
It’s been 2 years Brett. Where’s the taint mascara?
Imo we assign the performance of the passing offense to the qb in a way that doesn't make sense in a team sport. I don't think the statline tells you much about the underlying qb skill.
31:46 OMG that Pats are so irrelevant, that Brett forgot his darling Drake Maye
Baker’s comeback is pretty crazy
Been preaching to my barber, who is a big Tampa fan, about how I thought they'd be good. He didn't believe me.
They better give Caleb a freaking Berlin Wall in front of him next season
Nobody tell him what happened to the Berlin Wall
Caleb holds the ball too long & thinks he can get away with playing most of the game with off schedule
He will have that when he's traded to the Steelers in 2 years
Hes getting it out in 2.5 seconds their num nuts@@Highspeed30
@@Highspeed30thanks for confirming you know nothing and have not been watching games
The truth I think is that both matter most of the time. Nature and nurture. Certainly it's true that Kingsbury is putting on a master class of how to protect and grow your QB. But it's also true that Jayden has been special. His work ethic is beyond legendary, and I believe he would have succeeded anywhere. Need a rookie to master Payton's complex offense? Jayden would have. All QBs who get to the NFL have some semblance of work ethic, and all those who are successful work at a level the rest of us probably can't understand...but Jayden makes even that look like nothing.
By contrast, I think Bo Nix was going to struggle anywhere he went. Nix just didn't deserve to be drafted so high. He's the poster child for when a team is bound by PR needs to draft a QB - any QB - and when the board doesn't fall their way, they don't course correct. I think Geno needed to mature, and would have stuggled anywhere at first because he just wasn't mature enough to handle being a high QB pick at that point in his life...but he grew up and now he is.
But I think alot of QBs are somewhere between these extremes. I think Darnold is a great example. I think Brock Purdy is as well. Probably Tua. These guys are good enough, but they need the great OCs and supporting casts and such. They're excellent cogs in a machine, but they can't be "The Guy". I think there's alot of places Mahomes could have gone where he wouldn't have had Andy Reid or Alex Smith mentoring him and would have failed. Likewise Josh Allen. They had the elite tools, but they needed help bringing it to the next level, but credit to them to being open to it.
Yayy now they’re back together it’s the return of the EJ “😐” if you squint hard enough
You good?
I do not agree
In Caleb needing to play more hero ball. Theirs already a low light reel of him spinning and spinning and spinning 10+ yards backwards instead of just throwing the ball away. He needs to learn to eat the sack or throw it away.
Same people who hated on certain guys will come back and say they always believed in them when they pop off. Zach Milfson up next.
sure the O-line is bad, but the effort/attitude issues are more concerning for the bears.
Seems to me that average quality rookies are tried and blamed instead of letting that same guy play after learning something. Kaiser left as an underclassmen and was practice squad ready. He started on the worst team of all time and blamed for not carrying them. Big guy athletic would probably have been good with the Jordan love treatment. Unfortunately Green Bay switched coaches and hes gone.
Like i think Daniel jones might get good but he probably needed more time to sit. He's not progressing while playing.
Winston was good whenever he was healthy in New Orleans. And they outlawed the cheap shot where he was injured.
Zach wilson definitely shouldn't have started.
That joe Milton kid in new England big strong fast or the backup now in Baltimore are intriguing.
Not impressed by drake yet. He might get good.
Could Zach Wilson and Josh Rosen fo something similar?
Yeah I would prefer if Caleb could be a tad more accurate down the field. He was a little too check down Charlie in the last game, and you need explosives to survive in the NFL. They won the last game and I get that it’s his rookie season but I’m already worried they put it into Caleb’s head that he can NEVER throw a risky ball which creates a risk averse QB that’s frankly not good enough. It’s early but there are things I’m keeping an eye on.
This thesis brought to you by two Bears Fans who have been screaming into the void/tv screens for decades.
Baker and Sam balling out while the teams who drafted them are clown shows.
QBs are more likely to buzz on bad teams and bad organizations. If you drive a quarterback you should invest heavily into making that quarterback job easy as possible. The Chicago Bears didn't get the memo
They actually did try. They got Williams a top 5 defense and a hof bound WR along with good other receivers and invested multiple picks in the line though they've had injuries. They did way more for him than for Fields
They got HALF of the memo.
But boy howdy do they need OL help
This is a complete shift from everyone on earth saying he’s going into the best situation for a rookie QB
@@Naflergasin right, and imo he still did.
@@Naflergasin well the expectation was that the Bears OL would be league average...not, you know, bottom 3
The CHIEFS haven't been playing well??? How about MAHOMES hasn't been playing well!
Watch the games inshallah
The Chiefs in the Mahomes era have been known for their offense so it makes sense that we're fixated on their offensive struggles. What keeps getting overlooked by a lot of people is that they've built a dominant defense since last season and that's kept them in games.
@ludvigstrannabjermelin6882 idk what that last word is supposed to be, but I can reply without it. I *have* watched the BAL and the ATL games -- just highlights of the CIN game -- and the film supports my comment. Mahomes has mis-read significantly more plays than he usually does.
Dudes been mid to good. The glazing especially when with correct non rigged reffing they would be 1 and 3
And Bo started @SEA vsPIT @TB @NYJ…
So is it Bryce Young then, or the Panthers??
Yes
@@jordanslater7085 that’s what I feared.
Only 37 min... 😢
Drake Maye
Big if true
Quarterback in the NFL should be an apprenticeship. Most rookie qbs shouldnt even dress for games, let alone start in them.
Yup but a coach can’t think this way, if you’re on the hot seat you cant keep the young qb on the bench
@@Mika-me3ogkinda makes you think that coaches with young quarterbacks shouldn’t be on hot seats so much unless the team is an absolute dumpster 🔥 you can’t expect any passer to develop with chaos and change all around them
@@mikhailboldt3417 Bingo. It takes a top-down organizational approach. Everyone has to be on board.
Then you lose the entire salary cap benefit of having the team’s most expensive player on a rookie contract. And that benefit-at least theoretically-enables the team to be able to afford quality players to build around him. Just look at the 49ers.
@@terry7907 The important part is to find your franchise qb no matter what.
How is patrick mahomes in a bad situation 😂 He has the greatest offensive mind in nfl history, one of the top 3-4 greatest tight ends of all time, and elite o line, elite defense, and the refs on his side in every game lol
The wide receivers, running backs, tight ends are either not playing good or not playing rn.
Chiefs are one of the most penalized teams in the Mahomes era, they just don’t fuck up during key moments like other teams do.
Also the coaching staff may be good, his available weapons rn with Pacheco, Rice, and Brown out are not.
Top end talent is getting thinner at receiver, no other real bruiser RB guy besides Pacheco, Tackles are still an issue (interior not so much) and Andy Reid whose known to be a pass scheme genius has not really provided easy answers to move the ball. Much of that has been hidden by Mahomes needing to be pretty consistent in the regular season.
@@t4d0W Even the interior OL is slightly less dominant. Thuney started showing some decline last year and it's popped up a few times this year too.
Don’t forget how one of their linemen is a cheater who goes early on near every play and doesn’t get called enough for it.
I'm sorry but that manscaped ad... it feels like EJ is telling me to shave my nuts for family gatherings and holidays. That's what manscaped advertised themselves as for YEARS, so putting a "look good for family" spin on it has bad results 😭
Happy holidays!
😂😂😂
It's insane that they didn't mention the worst "bust fallacy" in Tua.
❤🔥
It's strange (to me) to say that Mahomes is independent of his circumstances, when he came into one of the best situations that a rookie QB has come into. Mahomes and his career don't contradict the pattern, they set the pattern.
Talent performs as well as it's circumstance. Success builds on success.
The refs hand games to the chiefs. That’s the biggest reason why they’re the “best” situational team.
Guys the NFL is rigged. Can we stop with the Mahomes glazing he isn't even playing good let alone great. Dude has weapons still better than like Lamar first 5 years weapons.
Cope
The paranoia and pain lives strong with this one.
Quarterbacks on good teams look better than quarterbacks on bad teams. This is groundbreaking stuff.
That intro music is seriously awful
Love the show but man that shit is cringe