I would love it to invest in great companies like Nvida, Microsoft and so on but the weakening of the USD and the prospect of a bigger geopolitical turmoil (Taiwan invasion, elections in the US, a burning middle east) is really making me stay on the sidelines for a while…. I of course don‘t want to spread pessimism but these harsh topics need be adressed. Thank you Ipek for your valuable insights.
That's interesting about the level of USD. Definitely seems extreme, seems we will at least hug that level for now until we get some rate projections from the Fed or something like that. It probably is pricing in a recession. It's showing up everywhere, currencies, gold, even equities at these high prices. Going to be watching this!
@@ipekozkardeskaya1383 yeah there's a lot of heat in bond strength and dollar weakness. I wouldn't want to get in front of it. We'll have to see if Jackson hole does anything, somehow I doubt it will change much!
35 Trn in national debt … with unfunded liabilities way over 120 Trn and counting …. the USD is toast …. It went from 4 to 3 to 2 to 1 and now 0.85 CHF … guess where it will go …
Hi Ipek, one substantial thing I learn from your analysis is the significance of FX regarding equities. But now I have an embarrassing question regarding the chart of USD TO CAND, when you mentioned oversold and with a circle around the drop on the bottom graph, what is that measurement (showing aprox 30) ? And and and why now is gold being used as a hedge, which normally it is, but has not been for many months?
Thanks! All questions are good to ask :) the bottom indicator is the RSI index (the relative strength index) when it’s above 70 it’s an indication that the market is overbought. Below 30, an indication that the market is oversold. It could be used to predict correction. For gold, one reason why it surged despite higher yields and strong appetite is the EM central bank buying. Now we are back to : lower yields boost appetite because they increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest bearing gold. If we look back, gold has been bought for many reasons and for no reason. This is why we could see a downside correction near the actual psychological levels…
Thank you, Ipek 😊
Cheers Cris !
I appreciate your comments very much
Thank you 🙏🏻🙏🏻☺️
I would love it to invest in great companies like Nvida, Microsoft and so on but the weakening of the USD and the prospect of a bigger geopolitical turmoil (Taiwan invasion, elections in the US, a burning middle east) is really making me stay on the sidelines for a
while…. I of course don‘t want to spread pessimism but these harsh topics need be adressed.
Thank you Ipek for your valuable insights.
That's interesting about the level of USD. Definitely seems extreme, seems we will at least hug that level for now until we get some rate projections from the Fed or something like that. It probably is pricing in a recession. It's showing up everywhere, currencies, gold, even equities at these high prices. Going to be watching this!
Yes and keeps falling 🧐🧐
@@ipekozkardeskaya1383 yeah there's a lot of heat in bond strength and dollar weakness. I wouldn't want to get in front of it. We'll have to see if Jackson hole does anything, somehow I doubt it will change much!
@@samthedoorwell the 818k downside revision to payrolls doesn’t help the US 😊
@@ipekozkardeskaya1383 yeah that was quite a number no doubt, implying recession!
35 Trn in national debt … with unfunded liabilities way over 120 Trn and counting …. the USD is toast …. It went from 4 to 3 to 2 to 1 and now 0.85 CHF … guess where it will go …
@@christophregli2160 Thats what I am saying too!!!! Wie gseht das nüemer? Me het mol 4 CHF müesse zahle für de USD!!!
Hi Ipek, one substantial thing I learn from your analysis is the significance of FX regarding equities.
But now I have an embarrassing question regarding the chart of USD TO CAND, when you mentioned oversold and with a circle around the drop on the bottom graph, what is that measurement (showing aprox 30) ?
And and and why now is gold being used as a hedge, which normally it is, but has not been for many months?
Thanks! All questions are good to ask :) the bottom indicator is the RSI index (the relative strength index) when it’s above 70 it’s an indication that the market is overbought. Below 30, an indication that the market is oversold. It could be used to predict correction.
For gold, one reason why it surged despite higher yields and strong appetite is the EM central bank buying. Now we are back to : lower yields boost appetite because they increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest bearing gold. If we look back, gold has been bought for many reasons and for no reason. This is why we could see a downside correction near the actual psychological levels…
@@ipekozkardeskaya1383 Thank you Ipek