THANK YOU!! Skipped to end trying to circumvent the click-bait-generated ad revenue while still satiating my curiosity...still was all over the place at section i landed upon...jumped down here looking for a cool cat like you providing the bottom line. Thanks again!
@@DNoneya-co5wi you are welcome ! I mostly look for comments like these as well but today I had time to listen to this whole thing , basically this guy has predicted all of the elections since the 80s but it's not a concrete science sometimes he predicts them a year or two in advance or sometimes right before the election . He hasn't been wrong but you never know and this election he is predicting a trump loss (as of now at least) according to his 13 keys or whatever. So yeah there yah go lol
@I hate it Here stop watching cnn and google voting fraud, it is a very real thing that is currently happening and will only get worse with universal mail in voting. A whole election got thrown out in new jersey recently due to false ballots. Also being an FL resident it was crazy watching what happened in broward county with Brenda Snipes during the 2018 midterm elections, and the list goes on (one free google ticket here, search it). Regardless of anyone's political leanings we should all be for secure elections, it is the only way our voices are heard by the government.
It's Nov. 4th and the professor was dead on. He called it and when you read the comments, you begin to see people's biases. He kept saying he was a Democrat. He reiterated that the 13 keys had nothing to do with his biases. He always stuck to what the 13 keys told him. An amazing set of keys and an affable guy.
Facts, all the comments below put there trump hats on and blocked there ears. He has been using the same damn model for every election and had nothing to do with his political party affiliation. The man was RIGHT..
@P0W Rescued Guy , Trump is just a pitiful lying old man, and the sad thing is he is fooling you and you do not have the brain to know you're being made a fool of. You are the kind of person who will follow the Anti-christ.
@P0W Rescued 🤣🤣🤣 you really don't believe that bull, you are just trolling. You and I both know to install software to win the presidency but not have that same software ensure dems won up and down the ballot would have been foolish.
@@OvertIntelligence If so, that was not my intention. That said, stating that you shouldn't interrupt your "enemies" when they are "making a mistake" which implies that he/she disagrees with them, seems crystal clear. Do you have a different interpretation?
Ren S There are all kinds of reasons to classify someone as an enemy. It is apparently a quote from back in the day when men displayed wisdom instead of regurgitating politically correct platitudes.
Allan's from Havard: Havard took USD 1 Billion+ from the world's 2nd Largest Economy !! PBD's body language & insightful feedback on Allan's choice, tells it all..total biasness by Allan !!!
Yes, Harvard is sponsored by big corporations (including those that hate what Trump is doing) so many who get out of there are mere puppets since all that such pedigree school teaches is PROPAGANDA. As average rule, I trust nothing/ nobody that comes out of such school.
Trump is a whole different animal. this guy's model is off. silent majority is yuuuuge let me tell you. yuuuuge. maybe the biggest ever. i guarantee it!
Amen to that his perfect record is going to be imperfect in 49 more days and we should never hear from his liberal mouth again. After all who in their right mind would vote for a man who wants to raise taxes on day one. NOBODY I KNOW.
I don’t think you’ll be back on. This guy went on this delusional tirade after the election about voter fraud and stuff. It’s pretty funny. it’s a shame because this is one of the best engaging interviews you’ve done.
I cannot believe PBD did not buy you those tickets, I mean, it's hard for a Maga cult member to see you win against his preference. It just shows which kind of people are supporting Trump, dishonest, cheaters who just cherish you when you are on their team. Great that you called for a Trump defeat 2.0 so, his stupid supporters would have their butts on fire once and for all.
Green Genes - recommend you get into some books and learn very quickly about who the national SOCIALISTS were, what their political/social ideology was, and how they operated and came to power before you start comparing Trump to Hitler. Biggest difference? Nazis blamed white Jews for all of their social ills. America's radical socialists blame white Christians. Don't get it twisted!
I Call: *Long term economy = True (Literally best numbers ever) *short term economy= True (It's climbing insanely fast, with 1 month to go). *Foreign military success= true (zero wars, 3 peace deals, 3 Nobel peace prize nominations) *Incumbent charisma=True (Forget the apprentice, how many people tuned in to 2016 & 2020 debates because of him. Joe Biden vs Jeb Bush anyone?) 9 true / 3 False His model is impressive, he just called it wrong.
I agree.... this year has been like no other! His keys regarding economy assume his OPINION that Trump botched the response to covid. He took heat for closing borders early, yet now he didn't do enough? Covid was politicized, lower death rate than flu.. why are we still talking about that??!? cdc data = 6% deaths caused by virus alone. We know initial numbers were way off (cdc website shows it) The professor's bias is showing, therefore his model is flawed. 🙄 Our economy was the BEST ever before covid, and it's already recovering much faster than predicted. I am no professor, but I can see the writing on the wall.... I predict the professor will be wrong for the first time. He is blinded by his bias. Also- sThe issue of packing the supreme courts has not been addressed... if voters realize the implications of that, it will be a surprise landslide. Packed Supreme court = eventual tyranny. Those who think Trump is a tyrant actually have it backward! If the power-hungry far Leftists take control and pack the Supreme Court, even the Dems -those who are not far left- will live to regret it. We have to have balance... even RBG said it! That right there is the #1 reason I will vote Trump! All the other issues we can address as a country, but if we destroy the balance of power at the top (Supreme Court) none of those issues will matter. The fact neither Biden or Harris will answer that question concerns me. It's a HUGE deal. If you are not clear on exactly what "packing the court" means, do some research. Go to the supreme court website. look up "RBG on packing the courts." There's a reason the number hasn't changed since 1869.
Litchman has predicted the winner since 1984, and retrospectively back to 1860. Out of interest, I retrospectively applied the keys to the elections of 1824-1856 (with the popular vote recorded for history and in a vast majority of all states), and all nine elections were correct. Also, for all 50 elections, the estimated vote share for the incumbent party can be determined by 60.9-1.88x, where x is the number of false keys, whereas the challenger party vote share would be 1.88x+39.1 (to sum to 100). The average absolute error from 1824 to 2020 with this formula is 3.25 points - the only major errors I had were in 1912 (13.98 points), 1920 (9.71 points), 1924 (11.84 points), and 1972 (8.41 points). 1912 had the Republicans split, and 1920, 1924 and 1972 were big landslides with popular vote margins in excess of 20 points (1924 had a Progressive ticket split from the Republicans). Also note 1836 had the Whigs field four regional candidates (I treated their main candidate, William Henry Harrison as the challenger party nominee for that year, and deemed the third party key as false): I had an error of 4.74 points there.
He says both the short term and long term economy are bad. Anybody in a low income household prior to covid knows that isn't true. Average income for labor has gone up over 10k a year. People wanted the government to do something about covid then blame trump, because he did something, over the economy. People are fucking idiots.
If that happens it will be the end of the entire planet. People please don't allow that to happen. We are already in horrible place right now, don't make it worse than this.
@@jackbryer2402 there was major resistance in political dynasties, financial dynasties trying to prevent trump. The same forces will destroy the planet than let their dynasties unravel.
@@jackbryer2402 In normal circumstances I would agree with that, but not here because the new leader presented is someone who's not up to the task. If you give me a better option then I agree wholeheartedly. I agree with change when the change offers something better, not when it offers something worse.
@@jackbryer2402 No when the previous regime created "woke-ism". The greatest evil of the 21st century. The old black & white twilight episode with Burgess Meridth & the bible terms it: YOU ARE OBSOLETE. Look it up and watch it sometime.
I could question 3 of the false: 1 Long Term Economy. Things were going great until the corona came. 2 Social unrest. I'll think a lot of people blame the local goverments (Democratic) and the rioters for the unrest -not the President. Instead they would lean toward Trump to secure order (opposing the defunding of pollice) 3 Forreign military succes. Not getting US into yet another war, I believe will be looked at as a succes.
I don't agree with your interpretation of (1) The Long Term economy was not "going great" for the average American "until corona came." The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 does not reflect the economic condition of most Americans. Most people don't own stocks. They don't trade stock on a daily basis. Trickle-down is a bogus concept. There is no evidence that it happens--even a little. Even the decline in the unemployment rate doesn't reflect the economic condition of most Americans. People who are employed in low-wage/low-benefits jobs will testify to this. I don't agree with your interpretation of (2) Only the biggest cities in the country are run by Democrats. The rest are run by a combination of both. There is more crime and more unrest in the biggest cities because there are more people in those cities. And Trump has done NOTHING to secure order in any city. Just the opposite: He has inflamed the Disorder. And your comment about (3) is just nonsense.
Only people who listen to Tucker Carlsen, Laura Ingram and Sean Hannity all day are blaming Democrats for the unrest. Get out of your echo chamber once in a while. This guy already said Trump has intense support among 25-30 of his base but it drops off after that. Don't forget Trump lost the general election against probably the most hateable candidate ever. He won on a technicality of the electoral college which he decried himself as a way to "cheat". Trump advocated against the electoral college as corrupt until it favored him. The man has no scruples, he just changes his viewpoint to sell himself. Hes a total fraudster. Hopefully independents have figured that our over the last four years. I'm not a great endorser of Biden either but people are tired of the non stop chaos.
@@michelegoddard4855 how do you explain that's it's cities with democrat mayors, AGs, and Governors that have the riots and chaos? Cities that have been run by nothing but dems for decades are trash dumps full of drugs, crime, homelessness, and filth can't be Trump's fault- they aren't on Trump when they allow and even support riots. Explain how it's not all dems fault.
@@leerichmond1459 you could only pray the right would do what's right. But these politicians aren't here to do the right thing. If these states hold back electoral college results, they won't step in enough. This is enough to make ya puke. We have to pray.
@FactsOverFeelings Matter His campaign paid to help bail out protestors. But he wants law and order...SMH. www.reuters.com/article/us-minneapolis-police-biden-bail/biden-staff-donate-to-group-that-pays-bail-in-riot-torn-minneapolis-idUSKBN2360SZ
Here are my humble opinions: Military success: Got rid of ISIS and shut down Iran plan on disrupting Iraq Economy success in both short term and long term and pulling through during pandemic. Definitely a charismatic person. I predict Trump will win.
I agree with you. If this is about comparing records, Trump beats Biden every time. #1 Trump has made good on almost all his promises in only under 4 years. #2 What has Biden done in 47 years? Nothing good. He was actually the author of the 1994 crime bill that was terrible for blacks, and anyone who has been following knows that Kamala has thrown tons of black people in prison for petty crimes as well. There is not even a question, Trump should and will win.
Military success: Got rid of ISIS and shut down Iran plan on disrupting Iraq (you are right, but also his power presence on being the only leader of the free world to stand against China)
@@rodolfoavitia6062 Many other countries are now following US footstep recently. When USA is unable to lead under Obama, every countries was afraid of China. It is not the case anymore.
The professor says Hoover didn’t cause the Great Depression yet, we’ve been told that for the 90 years. Also, did I miss any mention “black swan event”. Ps. I’m predicting the professor is wrong this time, based on Pat’s pushback.
Read THE FRUITS OF GRAFT. FDR not only embargoed the Japanese, so they couldn't get oil, to force the attack on Pearl Harbor, but he knew about the attack in advance. FDR wanted to enter WWII, but didn't want to take responsibility for the decision in the eyes of the American public. Additionally, FDR took every misstep to turn a recession into THE GREAT DEPRESSION. And he caused the depression to last until the required industrial boom, in support of the war effort. FDR was a member of the British PILGRIMS SOCIETY, and, along with his key advisor, Edward Mandell House, a plant of The British and The Bank of England, who, lest we forget, have been trying to takedown America prior to 1776, in 1812 during the Civil War and it continues to this day. Wittness The PILGRIMS SOCIETY, the covert extension of the Queen's PRIVY COUNCIL, SES and how they foster SERCO's attempt to run key aspects of the American economy, like our PATENT OFFICE, much of FEMA, our AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL, and even payroll in our U.S. Military. All ridiculous... As if America can't manage our own affairs without the handholding by the Queen. Yes, the Queen who holds the GOLDEN SHARE of SERCO. The DNC is the whipping boy of the Pilgrims Society and THE NWO who continue to work for the TAKEDOWN OF AMERICA. That is their Agenda, in support of the UN and THE CITY OF LONDON, controlled by the Rothschild banking interests... as always. These Globalists are America's ENEMY, and yes, that includes the Democratic Party. Just look at the cities and states they control... Disaster. THAT IS THEIR AGDNDA!!!
Roosevelt continued the policies of Hoover after campaigning against those policies, so he deserves as much blame as Hoover for dragging out the Depression.
He talks about trump Likes devison and caos but I don't see Republicans routing, looting or name a person that was attacked for wearing a Hillary t shirt, because we can see and hear who's doing the damage.
Yes he cited "drinking bleach". Trumo never said that. He clearly has MAJOR biases that more than likely were as pronounced in any other election before.
No, you and the other Trump supporters think that. Unfortunately for you, your group only consists of about 40% of the population. 40% won't win the presidency.
Hi Pat ,from NewZealand ,though your guest is brilliant and impressive in his predictions in terms of numbers, he is a man. It was not by the hand of man that President Trump was elected.l believe it was by the hand of the God Almighty that put him there.thats why the enemy is going nuts haha.cheers love your show.
Poco Loco, ..not at all. The absentee ballot has to be requested, ID and address verified before it is sent out. The “universal mailing” uses registered voter lists that are not updated, because the polls are suppossd to verify ID and address before you can move on to vote. ..and we have seen they even fail to do that. Much worse, our population moves often: rentals, jobs, preference. This means multiple registered voters could have lived at that address, and so, multiple ballots are mailed to that address. Who lives there? ..tempted to vote all those ballots? ..are you even eligible to vote? ..are you an illegal immigrant? Next, there are all the signatures and addresses on all the ballots that arrive in the mail to be verified. ..ain’t happening! There is no way to do it. I had to bring verifiable ID and a utility bill or official mail received at my address, in two different states where I have lived. This is another important difference: I have to be eligible to vote in my locale. This is for local elections. These are reasons why the means of voting have been worked out. It isn’t something you decide by fiat, and that is what Democrat officials have done in each state and in each locale, ..itself invalidating the election.
How so? Predictions are exactly that, predictions. If he was right before, if he is right again... What does that tell you? It's not like he had a one hit wonder guess. Politics are not as fluid as you might think. It can be predicted. It can be played.
@@KapteinFruit no normal model can predict anything for 2020. This is the year of craziness and it's delusional thinking any normal model would apply this year
I was impressed with his record and his keys, and although he did seem pretty biased, I kept listening. But when he said Trump was telling people to drink bleach, I lost all faith in him. His system may be solid, but his biases prove he may not be interpreting his keys objectively, and therefore, his system is greatly jeopardized.
His so called "system" is a 2020 fabrication. Yeah, he predicted prior elections, but this time, Lichtman chose to pull a Pinocchio. That's because Lichtman knew he couldn't make any convincing points using 2 empty suits (Biden/Harris). Lichtman instead chose a narrative that frames the election as Trump vs Trump. It was true in 2016, and still true in 2020..."IF" you can't generate significant enthusiasm with a candidate, that candidate can't win an election. Until the day that Trump institutes Leftist Death Camps around the country, you'll not motivate enough pot smokers to vote against Trump to defeat Trump.
US President Donald Trump has claimed "emerging" RESEARCH SUGGESTS disinfectants and sunlight MIGHT be able to used as treatments and diminish the threat of the new coronavirus, triggering a backlash from medical experts How stupid do you have to be to think that the President would tell people to drink bleach? ua-cam.com/video/33QdTOyXz3w/v-deo.html
he did break the rule he was harping on, the economy was going great, and long term would also the virus is while real, it was politicalized and used to hurt the country for the democrat grab for power, and they have to have it to save the lives of some of the obama crew,
It's not a grab for power, the president is fatigued and makes some remarks taken the wrong way. The guy is tired. He wanted to be president but there is tremendous scrutiny where he has to be on all the time, and it's too much for him.
He needs to add at least 2 new keys "the overwhelming anti-incumbent president bias by the mainstream media and the lack of the Democratic party addressing and denouncing the urban riots during an election year.
David Williams the Democratic Party is just as corrupt as the Republican Party so of course that means they don't want riots or revolution to overtake the criminals and restore democracy.
@@jamesmedina2062I appreciate your intelligent (broader) perspective. But I'm thinking that Williams is referring to, when he says "...they need to add...", is potential additional factors for a win, rather than laying out his personal take on the matter. This is what so many including myself doing here. We've run off into opinion city rather than appreciate the "mechanics" of a somewhat notable person's process.
Avery Joycelyn Barakuda Block Were you missing a verb there: "...what we (are) doing here." ? I was not super clear as to your meaning. I just don't understand how people don't expect what the authorities and politicians are apt to do as well as what the media will say to just keep everything the status quo and not innovate and adapt to the current situations and problems. The US government entities are all extremely inadequate and not receptive to the public. They are anti-democratic and censor and lie at every turn. People should know this and perhaps many do but basically the biggest problem in the United States is simply one: propaganda. If this and campaigns(costing billions) were not such a problem, we could find our way forward. It seems that at least you can thank Donald for one thing: getting people to question what they see on tv. Unfortunately his master plan is to spin things his way and not open the information floodgates as would be more appropriate. But seriously, just the act of lying to the public for any reason needs to be prosecuted. The management of information during the information era is a big deal.
I mainly wanted to point out what is so different now than when he correctly predicted the elections. BTW another deciding factor that I see is that Trump is an outsider and not your normal politician.
So when he projected Trump’s victory last time this guy was a hero and now he has a different prediction and suddenly he’s biased? Please Trumptards, try to be consistent 😂
Patrick, please, please, please pretty PLEASE have him back on when he's wrong. I do want to see him go back through and figure out what got read wrong.
He is letting his bias get in the way. He lost me when he asserted Russian agents were already in the US active and ready to disrupt the election again.
Oh jeez! I live in Australia too and even people I know who used to like Trump now recognise the insanity of him and his supporters. Everyone here in Australia that I've discussed the US election with convey to me that it's inconceivable that he can win this years election based upon the multitude of broken promises from his 2016 campaign and the catastrophic record of his first term. All one has to do is learn about his terrible business career and then look at his behaviour since Russia facilitated his 2016 election win (according to the the recent report handed down by the Republican-controlled Senate Intelligence Committee) to know that Trump is an absolute fraud in every way possible.
@@mypronounismom1056 Just like Fox News, Sky in Australia is owned by News Corp (Rupert Murdoch) and also like Fox News, the main news services are fairly balanced and definitely not pro-Trump, they're actually quite scathing of Trump because, of course, Trump says and does a lot of shockingly bad things. Also, like Fox News, on Sky News, there are far right-wing fringe dwelling opinion programs (which is what you are likely referring to) that most people see as wacky and few people watch (very low ratings). 😉 😉😉
@I hate it Here I didn't say anything like that. But now that you bring it up, somebody must be controlling him; I doubt he can control his own bowels.
In 2000, he inaccurately predicted, using his system, that Gore would be the next president.[10] Lichtman has provided commentary for networks and cable channels such as CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News.[11][12][13] In the 2016 election Lichtman predicted that Trump would win the popular vote; Trump ended up losing the popular vote (while winning the electoral college).
My feelings are the same his predicament was wrong IN 2000 you don’t win the presidency by popular vote you win by electoral votes as everyone knows the smaller states need electoral votes to even it out that’s how they set it up so he was wrong in 2000 popular vote doesn’t win the election and you are correct also SIR.
@@dynamicfirearmsinc432 It wasn't about EC and "small states how they set it up" even dummy, Bush stole the election by committing voter suppression in Florida while blaming the other side of fraud. Not just that, but voting machines were sabotaged. The popular vote, EC, and straight up cheating are three different things. He was right, Gore won both the EC and Popular vote. He won Florida, but gov Bush stole it. He made an accurate prediction.
@@swav.zielin The SC ruled that Florida couldn't recount only the dem counties around Miami and ignore the panhandle, quite a difference and an attempt to steal. The SC wouldn't let them. Bush didn't steal anything.
I don't think his model is counting that the opponent cannot speak in complete sentences, takes naps at 10am and thinks he's running for the senate, c'mon, man, you know the thing! Corn Pop needs to take a look at that key thing while Joe is in the pool and his hair floats up and they like it.
Some One you’re dreaming! Ok what will be your excuse if he loses? Ohhhh let me guess. Mail in ballots were fraudulent. Dems cheated. If he wins you won’t say one word about mail in ballets. Orange Man will say nothing about mail in ballets either. Weird how that works huh?
@@charlessmallins7926 your exactly RIGHT! They are Blind.. They (the demon-crats) blame Trump for dividing the country.. but they all have FAILED to see or admit that the divide goes back to 2016 & The Demon-crat Queen herself Hillary Clinton!! And the rest of the Demon-crat party or the majority of the Demon-crats!! When she lost her & the whole party called for riots.. NOT protests..RIOTS!! And haven't stopped all along!! And have tried everything from A FAKE/SHAM of an investigation! That kept proving the guilt of the Demon-cratic party & there collusion! All this social discord & the deaths that have stemmed from it all goes back to 2016 the Demon-crats Demon Queen Hillary!! Because he's not one of them isn't bought off like they ALL ARE & Exposes Them ALL!! AND NOW they think socialism is a good idea!! The party of IDIOTS
For someone with a full proof “objective model” this guy has a lot of bias opinions and criticisms while also clearly favoring socialism, calling AOC “the future”.. lol
@@remingtondeer8762 I've never seen a sentence not ended with some sort of punctuation, unless you're counting the preposition "before". FYI as incorrect as it is being a preposition at the end of a sentence, we just cannot pass it off as punctuation. In other words, get off his back for a silly typo or mistake.
John Karantonis you missed the point. Everyone has bias...he stated multiple times you have to remove the bias in the modeling no matter how hard it may be. Otherwise, the model/forecaster is useless.
Allan Lichtmane candidly admits several times that the most difficult part is keeping his personal feelings out when measuring key indexes. I get the strong sense that on some of those keys that his personal feelings are influencing his decisions. Some of the examples for his reasoning’s are CNN talking points. I don’t see Biden who’s been cozy with the Chinese being president, but then again what do I know.
@Dr. Jamal Washington democrats are going to need to suppress the living and recruit the dead to have any chance at winning......and they'll STILL LOSE 💯 the only scary thing is 2024 because there is no candidate strong enough to defeat Hillary Clinton and since the democrats an blame every future mistake on the past president? Its literally open season on the planet and thats the only thing I worry about. Also alexandria occasio Cortez will be the 2016 bernie sanders by 2032 < If your reading this in the future she's a sell out 💯 dont trust her or tulsi or anybody else that works or is allied with the DNC. Hopefully this ages we'll ✌
Actually, I believe the Leftist Media gave the debates to Hillary, just as they gave the DEMs since at least Clinton. And all they do is cry foul when they lose.
He also said Gore would win. His criteria is subjective, such as charismatic leader/speaker and foreign policy. Heck, Trump has been nominated for the Noble Peace Prize and way more charismatic than Biden!
Dont underestimate him he knows what he's talking about but you guys fears about this one thats why you all feel overwhelmed put your preferences aside and understand why says what he says
The guy think more highly of himself than he should. His models are not always correct. When he is wrong he lies, and changes history in his eyes, like most Democrats. The professor predicted Gore to beat Bush in 2000. Then, when Bush defeated Gore, he flipped and said that he correctly predicted that election (which he did not). So this whole entire interview was based on a false premise, that he always gets it right. In December, he will say thay he predicted Trump, because the guy is a liar. Whatever sells books, right? Trump will win. Check out the odds makers in Las Vegas, if you have a question on that. THEY ARE RIGHT.
Thats what it takes to get you back into your echochamber again? Lol, personally I find that pathetic, Someone intelligent, or with a spine even, can handle an hour of opinions he doesn't agree with, let alone a single sentence.
"PUTTING ASIDE YOUR OWN" HE HAS SLIPPED. Because Trump has done amazing on economy, dems took out with release of COVID, he has done well with military. This man has been so influenced by those around him and media, that he has lost his ability to be objective with his own model......his model actually would have worked if he had used without bias, but he will have first miss. I'm certain.
This guy is a whack job, Cena. The professor predicted Gore to beat Bush in 2000. Then, when Bush defeated Gore, he flipped and said that he correctly predicted that election (which he did not). So this whole entire interview was based on a false premise, that he always gets it right. In December, he will say thay he predicted Trump, because the guy is a liar. Whatever sells books, right? Trump will win. Check out the odds makers in Las Vegas, if you have a question on that. THEY ARE RIGHT. This guy is a con man.
Trump done amazing thinks? Yes, for those making a lot of cake that tax breakis only for the very rich only, as for the average person the economy is in bad shape, unemployment is high, evictions are high,.....what book are you reading over 200,000 dead because of this heartless selfish man who ignored the virus because he did not want to disturb Wall Street numbers,which would make him look bad. And it's hard to be objective towards trump when he is such a selfish narcissistic loser ....And you mentioned the military, well Trump called our vets who serve this country losers and suckers....Trump is a greedy cheese burger corrupt pig who cares only about himself, let me tell you that he cares nothing about his supporters he just told a reporter yesterday it's good thing that the virus came along because he doesn't like shaking hands with nasty supporters ....he called his supporters nasty, and like Cohen his supporters feel like you will take a bullet for Trump when he will not even shake your hand because he consider supporters nasty...Cohen did jail time for him and he laughed, he will use you and spit you out...he will not shake your hand but you will wast your gas to go to his rallies, he suggested you drink bleach now he wants you to take an unsafe vaccine before it has fully tested qualified safe that takes months not a few weeks, please do not take....DO NOT DRINK BLEACH AND TAKE THE POISON VACCINE remember Trump will not even shake your hand why risk your life for him
Yes everyone will behave if Biden wins because liberals are the only ones that throws fits when they don’t get their way and if they don’t then it will be time for the real men and women of the US to come out and play and spank their spoiled little asses!
@@ejcahill418 Well your elected officials are representatives and they often guess what you want them to do. Protesting lets them know. But right after an election, you could argue your minority concern but the majority of people spoke in some fashion by voting.
@@ejcahill418 Law and Ordered restored. _Can you feel it?_ 🇺🇸 *A proud moment for America,* as it ushers in the *46th president.* *More years of corruption* than the number of presidents in the country. *Welcome to a sad new era of control.* 🇺🇸 *God bless the USSA.* (Oh! You haven't heard yet... ? *The United Social States of America.*)
The guy is a con man. The professor predicted Gore to beat Bush in 2000. Then, when Bush defeated Gore, he flipped and said that he correctly predicted that election (which he did not). So this whole entire interview was based on a false premise, that he always gets it right. In December, he will say thay he predicted Trump, because the guy is a liar. Whatever sells books, right? Trump will win. Check out the odds makers in Las Vegas, if you have a question on that. THEY ARE RIGHT.
2020 is the year he is retired. The model seems great But his judgment is shaky. Carson Tucker is one of the most straightforward person and has very bright mind. And he has very negative opinion on Tucker
atlnigga I might be wrong in certain things but not on this one ☝️, not now, not this time, not this year, not in the near future. And if you think otherwise... put your money down!
Trump will win because enough blue states chose to split their electoral votes (and for a number of other reasons, but just by the numbers, democrats gave up before they picked their candidate).
@@benjaminbarkowski2227 wait what do you mean by 'split up their electoral votes" the only two states in the union that split up their votes is Maine (2 districts and 3 for state wide) and Nebraska (3 districts and 2 states wide). No other "blue" state splits up their electoral votes.
@@czechmate5079Oops. You're right. I was incorrect. They opted to give all their electoral votes to whomever wins the popular vote. www.cnn.com/2019/03/16/politics/colorado-presidential-vote-electoral-college-law/index.html
Try calling it right for 9 consecutive coin tosses; the 50% chance of being right applies only to a single toss. The probability of 9 consecutive correct predictions (1984 - 2016) is very low, even with a 50% chance of getting it right on any single try. To be quite technical, the probability of 9 consecutive right calls is 0.001953; that is 0.2% approximately. Or, in more conversational terms, a chance of 2 in a 1000!
50% yes. You forgot 9 times in a row. Go play roulette and try and see if you win 9 spins in a row on red or black. Roulette is actually 47.35 but nearly the same. If you played everyday that might happen once or twice a year
Indeed. The media’s lies have led him astray and will result in him being wrong. It is kinda sad for him to end his streak this way. The model seems like it would be correct. Charisma is on Trump’s side with once in a generation popularity among a vast and diverse people. My parents have never seen anything like it. His crowds are unlike anything I have seen in the US.
@@Austin1990 agreed, also military success. American's spent starting a war as a success or ending ISIS as a success. Then he brushes off the ME peace treaties like they're nothing because he's biased.
Well I have a surprise for him 6 months before the 2016 election I dream Trump won that's right no models no keys I have currently just redeemed up Trump again so my prediction is he's going to get a second term and this guy is pretty finished what is predictions
What about defeating ISIS? I was sick of seeing people lead out to be beheaded. I think that was a pretty good win, especially after Obama said it would take generations. O sure wasn’t much on predictions.
Valerie Marchitello Peddicord LMAO Literally anyone can be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize! Trump fosters an environment of hate! Tell me again why that is a good thing?
@@laurah6381 proves all you do is watch Liberal media my family in COMMUNIST countries wish Trump was their president and how blessed we are to have someone who cares about our people you only prove your foolishness making a statement like that
Ah yes, believe in an unprovable fictional diety in peoples imagination as opposed to an educated professor who has real and factual information on this.
The factors missing from this guy's analysis are "cares about the country", "is not a liar", "does what is best for the country" and "does what he says". Politics has failed until this presidency. Obviously, what Trump has is what makes America great--the resolve to take care of the country, protect it and make it prosper.
Every leftist agenda checks off isis wishlist. Bill gates daughter married a Muslim billionaire. Open borders defund police disarm military hate speech laws mask mandates (negates burka ban questions worldwide) Wars are won with money. The west is overextended. The middle east has no debt and healthy gdp. They are sending economic migrants to western countries to suck dry the welfare system (financial jihad), have lots of babies and fight political jihad. They went attempted a coup in turkey and now are migrating to nuclear weapons capable western countries they hate, and refuse to assimilate when the middle east is full of wealthy counties where assimilation is not necessary. Is it a coincidence?
@@PrivatePrivate-do2on how is it relevant that Bill Gates married a Muslim? Do you have something against people with religions other than your own? oh right, you are in Trump's America, not racist at all.
Julie, yes, and all of the other times this con artist was wrong. The professor predicted Gore to beat Bush in 2000. Then, when Bush defeated Gore, he flipped and said that he correctly predicted that election (which he did not). So this whole entire interview was based on a false premise, that he always gets it right. In December, he will say thay he predicted Trump, because the guy is a liar. Whatever sells books, right? Trump will win. Check out the odds makers in Las Vegas, if you have a question on that. THEY ARE RIGHT.
Oh except it wasn't. Turns out it was your bias not letting you consider his well-researched prediction. Remember he predicted trump in 16, why would he suddenly become biased after that?
Read my comment, he’s using the power of persuasion to influence everyone watching this video. By the look of this comments EVERYONE can see Right Through his Biased ASS! Haha! Trump 2020, Aloha!
@Dr. Jamal Washington There has always been mail in voting in America. What are you talking about! We did mail in voting when Trump won, so how come all of a sudden its a problem. The fact is there are more Democrats in this country than there are Republicans, and Trump seeing that he is in trouble doesn't want mail in voting, as he knows he will loose, so he wants to make it a problem this time, wasn't a problem last time though. Voter Suppression, reducing the number of polling stations in certain areas making it difficult for people to vote is all things done by Republicans!! so who is cheating?
karen morrison our governor is democrat and is removing polling stations in rural republican counties and increasing in democrat cities. Ballots go out to dead people and in California 117percent voted. My thought is that when you bring in your paper mailed ballot to vote in person that the clerks office can use that in their favor. Or use those that were never mailed back and counterfeited those.
Before when there were other candidates Trump didn't want to have debates. Now that we have Biden he wants to have a lot of them. Why do you think that is 🤔
@@AJPK33 it's not either... Look it up. Trump has said this. You may have forgotten because there is so much news everyday. He wanted to bypass the debates during the primary
NO! HE IS WRONG. THE ODDS ARE AGAINST HIM BEING RIGHT. 9 out of 10 times someone can be right, but no one is right all the time. The odds are against him being right this time.
I'm right all the time...and I predict a Trump win for 2020. Just need to look and compare the sheer amount of Trump stuff around. I have yet to see any Biden campaign stuff around Phoenix and we're #5 for nation's largest cities as of 2019.
1912 the challenger won with just 5 keys, and he got Al Gore wrong... no models are prefect, but this one shows Trump has an up hill battle. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC349231/pdf/pnas00662-0692.pdf
But he predicted Trump would win in 2016. Don't get me wrong, I hope and pray to God he's wrong. But I have a nagging feeling Biden is going win. It's terrifying to me, but what the liberal left media has done to smear Trump since he's been in office seems to have brainwashed enough people for him to lose in 2020. God help us...
bls001 ... well, if Biden wins, then it’s because the left dismally succeeded in a way to steal the election, because crowds are indicative of the winner. Trump was drawing 35,000 people at one rally and Alzheimer’s Joe didn’t have but 15 or so. The news wouldn’t even show joe’s crowd. With Trump having the virus, that will only boast his numbers.
@@bskee001 You're an idiot just like trump. Trump is destroying everything in his path and all you can thing of is the so called liberal left smearing him. He does that all by himself. Be a Republican, be a conservative or whatever you are, but to think Trump is some savior or he's on your side is delusional.
China is backing Biden / Russia is backing Trump - Biden will win the popular vote BUT on election night Trump will be ahead and take it I think. If Biden is ahead on election night he is going to be dealing with an economic disaster and I think China will invade Taiwan - it's an election the Democrats shouldn't want to win. If Biden is behind on election night but ends up ahead EVERY day that there is no decisive winner is going to take the markets down and the rioting up. Good luck America - sort this out or China will be in charge.
Sunny Goold Russia & China appear to get along very well. Why would Russia want Trump to win, as he has put many sanctions on them? Also, why would Russia want Trump to win when they know they can buy about anything they want or need from Democrats, including Uranium, which we need for many things, including medicine? Just give me one good reason.
@pirramimma100 But he's making the judgment calls like does POTUS have charisma. Does he only watch fake news? Does he see how many giant boat parades there have been during a "pandemic"? Does he see the giant overflow crowds at his rallies?
The economy short and long term would of been great if it wasn’t for the pandemic. He even says so but counts that against Trump. Doesn’t make sense. But he puts that as a false. As well as unrest. He’s getting it very wrong. And it’s not a math equation when the true and false are his opinion. I can’t agree with his assessment of picking who will win or loss. This hasn’t been a “normal” 4 years or election coming up. We all see what’s going on.. our country is very much on the line.
@@majestic7107 ...that's the problem with those who "write the rules" of a predictive process...they like to apply them according to that which wasn't written in the rules and for a good reason. They are bias to their own game. He is blinded by his own reflection. He is a democrat, that's enough at this point, he is either legally blind or blind to legality... Or stated a different way, the Dr.L is a slave to ignorance or an evil member of that which is our current enemy of the state (he is still enslaved either way.)
@eric walter111 If you're a Trump supporter, you don't want all the votes counted... not if you want to win. That's why you all are trying to steal the election. But God has other plans and will not allow for this antichrist to further damage this great nation and planet.
@@KM-zn3lx Who is setting up FAKE BALLOT BOXES? Sounds like Republicans are trying to steal the elections. Who in Texas made it so there would be only one voting location in every country, making it harder for voters to get to the polls? Sounds like Republicans. Who worked for the U.S. Post Office and was caught and arrested for disposing of mail, which included ballots? A FUCKING REPUBLICAN. So quit with your bullshit about Democrats are trying to steal the election. They don't need to... they win more votes than the Republican candidate every single time. All Democrats want is a fair election that all citizens have a chance to participate in. That's all that's needed for them to win. Republicans are the one's that are gradually losing their grasp on the people and are doing every little thing they can to try to turn the tide. And I say this as someone who is NOT a Democrat... I will not be voting this election, because I do not vote for Republicans and Democrats. When there's a systemic change that allows for actual democracy and allows for third-party challengers to participate in the race, I will not be voting in these elections. So bottom line, I'm not saying ANY of this because I'm a Democrat or a Biden supporter. I absolutely am not. I'm just like most Americans who are absolutely disgusted with the performance Trump has turned in as POTUS. Even the smart Republicans see this and have come out and said so. It's only the Koolaid-drinking GOP Eichmans that continue to lick Trump's asshole and further allow him to piss and shit all over this country. If you still support Trump, today... FUCK YOU, traitors.
@@american_cosmic You obviously get your news exclusively from CNN. If you are a Christian, you had better pray that Donald Trump gets reelected or you may just see first hand what Communists do to Christians...
@suny123boy1 Oh he's won all right. You need to pay attention to not only the actual vote results but also that all of his attempts to go the legal route are getting dismissed. Winner : President Biden. The same way you losers lost the actual election (went on an on that Trump would win) is the same way you're going to get a taste of more reality when he loses every b.s. attempt @ legally getting it over turned. Wake up
@suny123boy1 You should probably relax internet thug. Not only are you ratting on yourself trying to be a tough one on the net but I already know you're weak for even getting feelings about an internet comment. You should go find some weak animal to pick one, I'm a tiger you don't wanna play with
Considering 7-6 in keys, if Trump wins again he is going to say that Trump managed to change one of the keys in last minute. And he obviously have leftist preferences
That's because ISIS hasn't been eliminated!!!!!! You think just because the media doesn't talk about ISIS they have magically disappeared? That's like thinking the Taliban is gone! Know your facts they are still alive and well. Regrouping
I would assume he would get this wrong because he watches fake news. No where in history has a President had absolutely 100% negative news. Unprecedented. He is bound to get it wrong. First thing I thought of was ISIS
V Durant what about ISIS????? Trump didn’t eliminate ISIS no more than Obama eliminated the Taliban after Bin Laden was killed no more than Bush eliminated the Taliban after he ran them out of power after 9/11. These crazies don’t just disappear. They are still out there just because the FAKE MEDIA as you all conveniently call them doesn’t report them doesn’t mean they are gone. Just because Trump says he destroyed them doesn’t make it true. Have they been degraded....YES. ALL they are doing now is regrouping...staying low key and will re-emerge just like the Taliban has done. Stop being so naive
John, he is a con man and a pathological liar. The professor predicted Gore to beat Bush in 2000. Then, when Bush defeated Gore, he flipped and said that he correctly predicted that election (which he did not). So this whole entire interview was based on a false premise, that he always gets it right. In December, he will say thay he predicted Trump, because the guy is a liar. Whatever sells books, right? Trump will win. Check out the odds makers in Las Vegas, if you have a question on that. THEY ARE RIGHT. When Trump wins, Lichtman will flip and lie again.
did you listen to the interview? Clean your ears. He doesn't use his opinion. The keys are based on facts. Something you and your kind know nothing about.
Yeah, I am watching this from the perspective of knowing that Trump won. And, I am trying to figure out how the professor missed this one. And, I look at how close of a call this was. One key being flipped would make the difference. One thing stands out as something that could influence several keys. The professor is basing his judgements upon data from the media. And, the media is fabricating a false reality. Polls at Trump rallies indicate that Trump is reaching an extremely broad group of people. Yet, the professor echoes the media’s talking point of Trump’s voter base being white men. I have never seen people gather in the US like they are for Trump. I feel the false rating for charisma may be based upon misleading reports. Just look at the #walkaway movement. This error alone would tip the keys in favor of Trump. And, scandals have been intense but in Trump’s favor. I followed the impeachment case closely, not from the media but from the hearings and official reports. It really was a hoax, and you didn’t have to dig deep to realize that. Then, the FBI forged an email from the CIA to justify bugging Trump’s campaign. These are just the beginning of the scandals, all against the challenging party rather than against Trump or Republicans. I could go on. We have a very odd climate where two “realities” are present: reality and a false reality that the media pushes. Which one are voters listening to? The professor is basing his keys upon the false reality.
Another nomination for the Nobel Peace Price. Tybring-Gjedde: “The people who have received the Peace Prize in recent years have done much less than Donald Trump. For example, Barack Obama did nothing." Yet another peace deal between Isreal, UAE and Bahrain. Lichtman is a very foolish man. As an engineer I understand the necessity of looking for more accurate ways of arriving at analytical answers. Lichtman apparently does not.
he addressed that point, it takes something like covid that changed the keys in his system. Like the man said, if third quarter growth is 60% and wipes out the job losses we have going then it would change a key.
@@Indigolakes Greetings, it does not matter what anyone thinks. God is always in control. Either way God's plan prevails in my life your life, everyone's life. I pray for your salvation Keith Adams, because in the end God is our only Hope and Savior, Not Man.
@behindeverybladeofgrass That ancient way of thinking and brainwashing has to change. Ask yourself how many people throughout history prayed to the sky god when being molested, sexually assaulted, raped, maimed, tortured, and murdered that received instantaneous mystical help from the invisible one in the sky. It is time for you to grow up and advance out of the Dark Ages.
He won't acknowledge a legit loss. Already claimed all of the TDS talking points to make excuses for himself. Plus he lost against Gore and doesn't count that one either! Win streak? Pfft.
There are ALOT of factors this guy doesnt appreciate. It's like he's not even aware of the state of the DNC, Biden, the nature of the plandemic, or just growing public sentiment in general.
@My Creative Learning We have way more people so that number is meaningless. By percentage America is doing pretty good. And i especially don’t want to hear a damn noise from anyone supporting the democrats when they’re the ones crowding the streets for months, and sending sick people back to retirement homes to purposely inflate the numbers. What shithole country are you from anyway 💀 the only growing sentiment is that Biden is a dead body and the democrats are willing to murder and destroy just to win
actually he won 4 tickets and the new subscribers. Trump's win in 2016 was a hole in one fluke. A Democrat candidate in 2016 who was unpopular in the three states that decided the electoral college was replaced by Democrat was not nearly as unpopular. Lichtman could see that a mile away. What no one predicted was that Trump would alos lose Georgia, Arizona, the House Majority, the Senate and White House all in one term. That's not happened in 50 years.
"I can't go outside my system" - that's fair. But it is also a limitation. Does your system account for all of the current "unprecedented" variables that may influence your keys? The credibility metric is probably fair. The wildcard here is the perception and reaction to the pandemic. We are getting near-real time information about how this pandemic actually behaves. And it isn't as lethal to a broad set of the population. So we don't know how the credibility metric will really behave. There is a real threat to people's ability to make a living based on state specific protocols. That isn't necessarily on washington.
This election feels more volatile than any in the series he has previous predicted correctly, but the model is based on a much larger set of data that includes many election more volatile than this one. But, he wasn't alive during all of them, so his model leans heavily on his reading of history, and that may be where some bias creeps in. He is a historian, so he will have a very good understanding of those election before he was experiencing them first-hand, and he seems quite intellectual honest and capable of keeping his own preferences for the future separated from his assessment of the past. But translating complex knife-edge elections 100+ years ago into 13 key indicators in a model looses nuance. While his model may yield the correct result for hundreds of elections, only a few were as crazy as this one, so it doesn't have the depth it normally has. His approach got it wrong in 2000, and this is another one where his model probably isnt calibrated 'perfectly' so it not suitable for the very close elections . That said, I wouldn't bet against model. His model is actually saying keep your money in the bank because this one is too unpredictable.
@ 1. Please spend a few hours looking through 'excess deaths' data, and you should see 6% isnt right either, and excess death is raw, and we can build our conclusions from it. The truth is somewhere in the middle. You need to care about the 94% to understand the 6%. I only understand about 50% of the 94% , but that is enough to know the 6% is just an opposite misinfo distilled into a viral soundbites that make us more polarised because all sides are relying on different sets of wrong conclusions. A lot of the deaths (excess and 'covid') use classification codes which are not explained, which is a failure of govt/media/uni/etc. They shouldnt be telling us what to think. They should be giving us the tools to be able to read the data ourselves so we can think about it. 2. Corporate media distorts everything. News at 11. ;) Sadly 'social media' is typically even worse, such as above saying it was 'fabricated'. That distortion is not merely bias - it is malicious , perhaps even unintentionally. And it is part of 'social media'? No, it is anti-social to lie like that. We have to be having more truthful and complex discussions than corporate media is offering.
the keys are likely ok, his bias however got TDSd hard. Formulas only work when you apply them to reality . start using an alternate reality, you will get alternate results
So that's why they concocted at least 6 negative keys for Trump to fall : out of lies and under-the-belt blows !... Whatever the end result, God will still have His LAST WORD !
I sure hope so, too, but he's still got a little ways to go on an other level, the spiritual level ; but for now, we're talking politics, so let's keep to that. I like D. Trump, not because I agree with him on everything, but because he is SINCERE - and courageous, on top of it : a balm to the soul who had TOTALLY GIVEN UP ON POLITICS, and a hope that God might not have forgotten this Earth yet, and might still intend to MAKE SOMETHING GOOD OUT OF IT. For now, the rest is details... HONESTY will win the world, if it is meant to be won for God : His world CANNOT be ruled by dishonesty and crookedness. Let's keep praying for him. MMEMJE.
He is predicting Trump to lose, saved you an hour. You are welcome !
THANK YOU!!
Skipped to end trying to circumvent the click-bait-generated ad revenue while still satiating my curiosity...still was all over the place at section i landed upon...jumped down here looking for a cool cat like you providing the bottom line. Thanks again!
@@DNoneya-co5wi you are welcome ! I mostly look for comments like these as well but today I had time to listen to this whole thing , basically this guy has predicted all of the elections since the 80s but it's not a concrete science sometimes he predicts them a year or two in advance or sometimes right before the election . He hasn't been wrong but you never know and this election he is predicting a trump loss (as of now at least) according to his 13 keys or whatever. So yeah there yah go lol
Thanks for saving me an hour. So to sum it all up, he gets it wrong for the first/second time 😸
@@padgepadgham3238 exactly lol
Thank you that's all I wanted to know
My prediction is this will be an election like we have never seen before.
It will be criminal election with this mail in bs
Peter Rumsby Trump should be saying I want to debate your VP, since she’s the real President if Biden wins! #MAGA2020
Judge jimbo Browntown their will be hell to pay if hiden Biden steals this election
@I hate it Here stop watching cnn and google voting fraud, it is a very real thing that is currently happening and will only get worse with universal mail in voting. A whole election got thrown out in new jersey recently due to false ballots. Also being an FL resident it was crazy watching what happened in broward county with Brenda Snipes during the 2018 midterm elections, and the list goes on (one free google ticket here, search it). Regardless of anyone's political leanings we should all be for secure elections, it is the only way our voices are heard by the government.
If done fairly we know the results already! 🇺🇸💪🇺🇸 TRUMP 🇺🇸💪🇺🇸 America first! The dems are going down this time around too!
I don't think anyone can predict anything accurately in 2020.
Qft
Really? Based on what? What makes this election less predictable than any election? Because you hope the current predictors are false?
Especially since the mail-in vote counting is so problematic.
@@pokerwiz101 He admits in the interview that he got 2000 wrong. Then he writes a book rationalizing that he was actually right. SMH.
I predict Christmas will be on December 25th this year.
It's Nov. 4th and the professor was dead on. He called it and when you read the comments, you begin to see people's biases. He kept saying he was a Democrat. He reiterated that the 13 keys had nothing to do with his biases. He always stuck to what the 13 keys told him. An amazing set of keys and an affable guy.
Facts, all the comments below put there trump hats on and blocked there ears. He has been using the same damn model for every election and had nothing to do with his political party affiliation. The man was RIGHT..
@@mr.b9788 I agree he was unbiased and very firm on his system. Here we have right answer
@P0W Rescued Guy , Trump is just a pitiful lying old man, and the sad thing is he is fooling you and you do not have the brain to know you're being made a fool of. You are the kind of person who will follow the Anti-christ.
@P0W Rescued 🤣🤣🤣 you really don't believe that bull, you are just trolling. You and I both know to install software to win the presidency but not have that same software ensure dems won up and down the ballot would have been foolish.
He said Sleepy Joe was decent!! 🤣🤣🤣🤣
"Never interrupt your enemies when they are making a mistake."
So anyone who disagrees with you is your enemy? That's a huge part, if not the biggest problem in politics today.
@@reachrenhere I think you just put words in his mouth. What do you think?
@@OvertIntelligence If so, that was not my intention. That said, stating that you shouldn't interrupt your "enemies" when they are "making a mistake" which implies that he/she disagrees with them, seems crystal clear. Do you have a different interpretation?
Ren S There are all kinds of reasons to classify someone as an enemy. It is apparently a quote from back in the day when men displayed wisdom instead of regurgitating politically correct platitudes.
Well. There it is. No need for Democrats to do anything but sit around.
Allan's from Havard: Havard took USD 1 Billion+ from the world's 2nd Largest Economy !! PBD's body language & insightful feedback on Allan's choice, tells it all..total biasness by Allan !!!
Yes, Harvard is sponsored by big corporations (including those that hate what Trump is doing) so many who get out of there are mere puppets since all that such pedigree school teaches is PROPAGANDA. As average rule, I trust nothing/ nobody that comes out of such school.
many columnists are from ivy league schools. they all happen to chat up a storrn on twitter praising each other for being such literate ass kissers.
But he was right. Biden won. Wait, let me guess, it’s because it’s cheated?
Here is my prediction, this guy doesn’t see 10 in a row
Trump is a whole different animal. this guy's model is off. silent majority is yuuuuge let me tell you. yuuuuge. maybe the biggest ever. i guarantee it!
Jon Focker brother I think he’s gonna kill it! I’m i Canadian and there are a silent majority up here who are in his corner. 100%
I think he is definitely wrong on at least 3 false readings.
Trump will win.
Amen to that his perfect record is going to be imperfect in 49 more days and we should never hear from his liberal mouth again. After all who in their right mind would vote for a man who wants to raise taxes on day one. NOBODY I KNOW.
@@infowazz There's such a word as "yuuuuge" ?
Where are my yankee tickets? 57:38 LOL
I don’t think you’ll be back on. This guy went on this delusional tirade after the election about voter fraud and stuff. It’s pretty funny. it’s a shame because this is one of the best engaging interviews you’ve done.
Wow he really didn’t keep his word after you proved him wrong. Just lost respect for the interviewer.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
I cannot believe PBD did not buy you those tickets, I mean, it's hard for a Maga cult member to see you win against his preference. It just shows which kind of people are supporting Trump, dishonest, cheaters who just cherish you when you are on their team. Great that you called for a Trump defeat 2.0 so, his stupid supporters would have their butts on fire once and for all.
Wow, interesting to see how party blinds people. Much respect to Allan for being truthful.
I respect this man’s opinion, but I think he’s wrong about this election. All streaks must come to an end.
4 more years of trump and the U.S. will look like Germany of the late 30s.
@@MrWadsox THEY will come out with a new virus or false flag. THEY never give up.
Green Genes- We’ll look like a combination of Nazi Germany and Stalin’s Soviet Union this time next year if the Democrats win in November.
Green Genes I am sure you experienced Germany in the 30’s . Get off of welfare and move out of mommy and daddy s
Green Genes - recommend you get into some books and learn very quickly about who the national SOCIALISTS were, what their political/social ideology was, and how they operated and came to power before you start comparing Trump to Hitler. Biggest difference? Nazis blamed white Jews for all of their social ills. America's radical socialists blame white Christians. Don't get it twisted!
I Call:
*Long term economy = True (Literally best numbers ever)
*short term economy= True (It's climbing insanely fast, with 1 month to go).
*Foreign military success= true (zero wars, 3 peace deals, 3 Nobel peace prize nominations)
*Incumbent charisma=True (Forget the apprentice, how many people tuned in to 2016 & 2020 debates because of him. Joe Biden vs Jeb Bush anyone?)
9 true / 3 False
His model is impressive, he just called it wrong.
Exactly according to his own model Trump gets charisma/foreign policy. Which makes him have the most keys. It doesn’t make sense why lichtman says no
Agree
I agree.... this year has been like no other! His keys regarding economy assume his OPINION that Trump botched the response to covid. He took heat for closing borders early, yet now he didn't do enough? Covid was politicized, lower death rate than flu.. why are we still talking about that??!? cdc data = 6% deaths caused by virus alone. We know initial numbers were way off (cdc website shows it) The professor's bias is showing, therefore his model is flawed. 🙄 Our economy was the BEST ever before covid, and it's already recovering much faster than predicted. I am no professor, but I can see the writing on the wall.... I predict the professor will be wrong for the first time. He is blinded by his bias.
Also- sThe issue of packing the supreme courts has not been addressed... if voters realize the implications of that, it will be a surprise landslide. Packed Supreme court = eventual tyranny. Those who think Trump is a tyrant actually have it backward! If the power-hungry far Leftists take control and pack the Supreme Court, even the Dems -those who are not far left- will live to regret it. We have to have balance... even RBG said it! That right there is the #1 reason I will vote Trump! All the other issues we can address as a country, but if we destroy the balance of power at the top (Supreme Court) none of those issues will matter. The fact neither Biden or Harris will answer that question concerns me. It's a HUGE deal. If you are not clear on exactly what "packing the court" means, do some research. Go to the supreme court website. look up "RBG on packing the courts." There's a reason the number hasn't changed since 1869.
Johan, you are the new Predictor. He's off by 6 or 7.
I see it exactly the same way! TRUMP 2020!
The next 2 months are gonna be wild, that's for sure
Every one knows that by now😉
I cant wait for the debates
Trump is a win. Biden is senile.
#yep
This guy wants that a senil running the country
The man was SPOT ON! He’s 10 for 10 now can’t deny him anymore.
Really couldn’t deny him once he got the first 5-6 correct. No idea why they listen to Nate silver.
Litchman has predicted the winner since 1984, and retrospectively back to 1860.
Out of interest, I retrospectively applied the keys to the elections of 1824-1856 (with the popular vote recorded for history and in a vast majority of all states), and all nine elections were correct.
Also, for all 50 elections, the estimated vote share for the incumbent party can be determined by 60.9-1.88x, where x is the number of false keys, whereas the challenger party vote share would be 1.88x+39.1 (to sum to 100).
The average absolute error from 1824 to 2020 with this formula is 3.25 points - the only major errors I had were in 1912 (13.98 points), 1920 (9.71 points), 1924 (11.84 points), and 1972 (8.41 points).
1912 had the Republicans split, and 1920, 1924 and 1972 were big landslides with popular vote margins in excess of 20 points (1924 had a Progressive ticket split from the Republicans).
Also note 1836 had the Whigs field four regional candidates (I treated their main candidate, William Henry Harrison as the challenger party nominee for that year, and deemed the third party key as false): I had an error of 4.74 points there.
@@NAGIUXS Thank you very much.
In case I forgot, the keys are 50 out of 50 since 1824, 41 out of 41 since 1860, and 10 out of 10 since 1984.
Tho guest has broken his own rule 1: he’s looking at things thru the lens of the politically biased news he’s been consuming.
I don't think he takes the internet as a variable in his keys.
Exactly
Well if so, he's been breaking the rules with great accuracy 🤣🤣
@@user-gd7mr5bx1l but things have changed like never before. People get information differently more now than ever before. Will see in November
He says both the short term and long term economy are bad. Anybody in a low income household prior to covid knows that isn't true. Average income for labor has gone up over 10k a year. People wanted the government to do something about covid then blame trump, because he did something, over the economy. People are fucking idiots.
If that happens it will be the end of the entire planet.
People please don't allow that to happen. We are already in horrible place right now, don't make it worse than this.
If we’re in a “horrible place”, doesn’t a change in leadership make sense?
@@jackbryer2402 there was major resistance in political dynasties, financial dynasties trying to prevent trump. The same forces will destroy the planet than let their dynasties unravel.
@@jackbryer2402 In normal circumstances I would agree with that, but not here because the new leader presented is someone who's not up to the task. If you give me a better option then I agree wholeheartedly. I agree with change when the change offers something better, not when it offers something worse.
mcopyright , Don’t worry, Trump will win by not by a landslide but by an avalanche. Trust me. This is the god chosen country.
@@jackbryer2402 No when the previous regime created "woke-ism". The greatest evil of the 21st century. The old black & white twilight episode with Burgess Meridth & the bible terms it: YOU ARE OBSOLETE. Look it up and watch it sometime.
I could question 3 of the false:
1 Long Term Economy. Things were going great until the corona came.
2 Social unrest. I'll think a lot of people blame the local goverments (Democratic) and the rioters for the unrest -not the President. Instead they would lean toward Trump to secure order (opposing the defunding of pollice)
3 Forreign military succes. Not getting US into yet another war, I believe will be looked at as a succes.
Totally agreed! Hope Trump sends him another message telling him, WRONG, YOU'RE FIRED!!!!!".
I don't agree with your interpretation of (1) The Long Term economy was not "going great" for the average American "until corona came." The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 does not reflect the economic condition of most Americans. Most people don't own stocks. They don't trade stock on a daily basis. Trickle-down is a bogus concept. There is no evidence that it happens--even a little. Even the decline in the unemployment rate doesn't reflect the economic condition of most Americans. People who are employed in low-wage/low-benefits jobs will testify to this. I don't agree with your interpretation of (2) Only the biggest cities in the country are run by Democrats. The rest are run by a combination of both. There is more crime and more unrest in the biggest cities because there are more people in those cities. And Trump has done NOTHING to secure order in any city. Just the opposite: He has inflamed the Disorder. And your comment about (3) is just nonsense.
Only people who listen to Tucker Carlsen, Laura Ingram and Sean Hannity all day are blaming Democrats for the unrest. Get out of your echo chamber once in a while. This guy already said Trump has intense support among 25-30 of his base but it drops off after that. Don't forget Trump lost the general election against probably the most hateable candidate ever. He won on a technicality of the electoral college which he decried himself as a way to "cheat". Trump advocated against the electoral college as corrupt until it favored him. The man has no scruples, he just changes his viewpoint to sell himself. Hes a total fraudster. Hopefully independents have figured that our over the last four years. I'm not a great endorser of Biden either but people are tired of the non stop chaos.
Also bringing troops home means nothing to him, also 1st president not to get us into a conflict in forever
@@michelegoddard4855 how do you explain that's it's cities with democrat mayors, AGs, and Governors that have the riots and chaos? Cities that have been run by nothing but dems for decades are trash dumps full of drugs, crime, homelessness, and filth can't be Trump's fault- they aren't on Trump when they allow and even support riots. Explain how it's not all dems fault.
Looks like this interview aged well 😅
Yes. I was looking for the guest that also confidently claimed high forecast powers and said Trump would win. I wanted to troll that video.
He better get ready to receive another note come November. This one will say "guess again" - Donald J. Trump 2020
Hahah yeah
If Biden wins, the conservatives will go hunting and remove the liabilities
Haha! That would be beyond amazing!! 😂
Has there ever been a senile presidential candidate? If not he best add that as a parameter.
@@leerichmond1459 you could only pray the right would do what's right. But these politicians aren't here to do the right thing. If these states hold back electoral college results, they won't step in enough. This is enough to make ya puke. We have to pray.
@FactsOverFeelings Matter His campaign paid to help bail out protestors. But he wants law and order...SMH.
www.reuters.com/article/us-minneapolis-police-biden-bail/biden-staff-donate-to-group-that-pays-bail-in-riot-torn-minneapolis-idUSKBN2360SZ
Here are my humble opinions:
Military success: Got rid of ISIS and shut down Iran plan on disrupting Iraq
Economy success in both short term and long term and pulling through during pandemic.
Definitely a charismatic person.
I predict Trump will win.
I think you're putting your own political desires in on the equation. LOL
I agree with you. If this is about comparing records, Trump beats Biden every time. #1 Trump has made good on almost all his promises in only under 4 years. #2 What has Biden done in 47 years? Nothing good. He was actually the author of the 1994 crime bill that was terrible for blacks, and anyone who has been following knows that Kamala has thrown tons of black people in prison for petty crimes as well. There is not even a question, Trump should and will win.
Military success: Got rid of ISIS and shut down Iran plan on disrupting Iraq (you are right, but also his power presence on being the only leader of the free world to stand against China)
@@rodolfoavitia6062 Many other countries are now following US footstep recently. When USA is unable to lead under Obama, every countries was afraid of China. It is not the case anymore.
This fellow a terrible judge of character. Hard to listen to dems talking to each other. Gag me with a spoon!
The professor says Hoover didn’t cause the Great Depression yet, we’ve been told that for the 90 years. Also, did I miss any mention “black swan event”.
Ps. I’m predicting the professor is wrong this time, based on Pat’s pushback.
Hoover did have some impact. Smoot Halley Tariff Act
Read THE FRUITS OF GRAFT.
FDR not only embargoed the Japanese, so they couldn't get oil, to force the attack on Pearl Harbor, but he knew about the attack in advance. FDR wanted to enter WWII, but didn't want to take responsibility for the decision in the eyes of the American public.
Additionally, FDR took every misstep to turn a recession into THE GREAT DEPRESSION. And he caused the depression to last until the required industrial boom, in support of the war effort. FDR was a member of the British PILGRIMS SOCIETY, and, along with his key advisor, Edward Mandell House, a plant of The British and The Bank of England, who, lest we forget, have been trying to takedown America prior to 1776, in 1812 during the Civil War and it continues to this day. Wittness The PILGRIMS SOCIETY, the covert extension of the Queen's PRIVY COUNCIL, SES and how they foster SERCO's attempt to run key aspects of the American economy, like our PATENT OFFICE, much of FEMA, our AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL, and even payroll in our U.S. Military.
All ridiculous...
As if America can't manage our own affairs without the handholding by the Queen.
Yes, the Queen who holds the GOLDEN SHARE of SERCO.
The DNC is the whipping boy of the Pilgrims Society and THE NWO who continue to work for the TAKEDOWN OF AMERICA.
That is their Agenda, in support of the UN and THE CITY OF LONDON, controlled by the Rothschild banking interests... as always.
These Globalists are America's ENEMY, and yes, that includes the Democratic Party.
Just look at the cities and states they control...
Disaster.
THAT IS THEIR AGDNDA!!!
Roosevelt continued the policies of Hoover after campaigning against those policies, so he deserves as much blame as Hoover for dragging out the Depression.
He talks about trump
Likes devison and caos but I don't see Republicans routing, looting or name a person that was attacked for wearing a Hillary t shirt, because we can see and hear who's doing the damage.
I didn't wait, I had to switch off.
And once again the Great Allan Lichtman was right. It's all about the keys!
Am I the only one who thinks he broke his rule of removing personal political views
Yep. He went off about "Russian Collusion". Which was never proven. In spite of a 3yr investigation. But he obviously still believes it happend.
Yes he cited "drinking bleach". Trumo never said that. He clearly has MAJOR biases that more than likely were as pronounced in any other election before.
Plus where is his list on Biden. very discriminating
Definately!
No, you and the other Trump supporters think that. Unfortunately for you, your group only consists of about 40% of the population. 40% won't win the presidency.
This guys “trust meter” is warped!
Hi Pat ,from NewZealand ,though your guest is brilliant and impressive in his predictions in terms of numbers, he is a man. It was not by the hand of man that President Trump was elected.l believe it was by the hand of the God Almighty that put him there.thats why the enemy is going nuts haha.cheers love your show.
Bc he's a demonic Democrat they stick together.. MY trust meter went off the charts when I saw his terrible wig 😂
Trump will win hate to disappoint you
You will lose this one
You do not know prophecy....we are in different times! It has nothing to do with your forecast !
Biden will never win it will blow your mind
Funny how he thinks Biden is going to have a say in anything...
He is going to be here to destroy our nation.
Some people would be kicking themselves in a few years if they miss this opportunity to invest in crypto now.
It’s not, truth is people tend to hate or criticize what they don’t understand
Trading crypto currencies without a good knowledge or expert guidance can be very risky.
Kornpop was a bad dude who ran a bad Gang of bidens PEDOPHILES
He won again. Wow. He is amazing.
He said “Theodore Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan” and you guys put up a picture of Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan. Just saying.
Poco Loco,
..not at all.
The absentee ballot has to be requested, ID and address verified before it is sent out.
The “universal mailing” uses registered voter lists that are not updated, because the polls are suppossd to verify ID and address before you can move on to vote.
..and we have seen they even fail to do that.
Much worse, our population moves often: rentals, jobs, preference.
This means multiple registered voters could have lived at that address, and so, multiple ballots are mailed to that address.
Who lives there?
..tempted to vote all those ballots?
..are you even eligible to vote?
..are you an illegal immigrant?
Next, there are all the signatures and addresses on all the ballots that arrive in the mail to be verified.
..ain’t happening!
There is no way to do it.
I had to bring verifiable ID and a utility bill or official mail received at my address, in two different states where I have lived.
This is another important difference: I have to be eligible to vote in my locale.
This is for local elections.
These are reasons why the means of voting have been worked out.
It isn’t something you decide by fiat, and that is what Democrat officials have done in each state and in each locale,
..itself invalidating the election.
Whoops! TBF, they wouldn’t be the first.
@Poco Loco NOT TRUE!!! They are different!
@Poco Loco You need to do some homework Poco. You can start here or do your own search. www.dictionary.com/e/absentee-ballot-vs-mail-in-ballot/
@Poco Loco www.dictionary.com/e/absentee-ballot-vs-mail-in-ballot/
It's so obviously biased! He will fail this time.
How so? Predictions are exactly that, predictions. If he was right before, if he is right again... What does that tell you? It's not like he had a one hit wonder guess. Politics are not as fluid as you might think. It can be predicted. It can be played.
In the end, GOD wins👍❣
KapteinFruit it tells me he had a 50% chance and got 2 in a row. Have you ever called a coin flip twice in a row? Amazing !
sounds like nervous wishful thinking on your part.🥴🥴🥴
@@KapteinFruit no normal model can predict anything for 2020. This is the year of craziness and it's delusional thinking any normal model would apply this year
I was impressed with his record and his keys, and although he did seem pretty biased, I kept listening. But when he said Trump was telling people to drink bleach, I lost all faith in him. His system may be solid, but his biases prove he may not be interpreting his keys objectively, and therefore, his system is greatly jeopardized.
He didn't say to drink bleach, he said to inject disinfectant. Trump was definitely having an off day.
His so called "system" is a 2020 fabrication. Yeah, he predicted prior elections, but this time, Lichtman chose to pull a Pinocchio. That's because Lichtman knew he couldn't make any convincing points using 2 empty suits (Biden/Harris). Lichtman instead chose a narrative that frames the election as Trump vs Trump.
It was true in 2016, and still true in 2020..."IF" you can't generate significant enthusiasm with a candidate, that candidate can't win an election. Until the day that Trump institutes Leftist Death Camps around the country, you'll not motivate enough pot smokers to vote against Trump to defeat Trump.
US President Donald Trump has claimed "emerging" RESEARCH SUGGESTS disinfectants and sunlight MIGHT be able to used as treatments and diminish the threat of the new coronavirus, triggering a backlash from medical experts How stupid do you have to be to think that the President would tell people to drink bleach? ua-cam.com/video/33QdTOyXz3w/v-deo.html
he did break the rule he was harping on, the economy was going great, and long term would also the virus is while real, it was politicalized and used to hurt the country for the democrat grab for power, and they have to have it to save the lives of some of the obama crew,
It's not a grab for power, the president is fatigued and makes some remarks taken the wrong way. The guy is tired. He wanted to be president but there is tremendous scrutiny where he has to be on all the time, and it's too much for him.
Don't like Lichtman's prediction? go and VOTE.
Great idea, why did I think of that?
For Biden
Oh I most certainly will
For Trump
The Lichtman Keys do not depend on voter turnout.
I thought this guy was an economist but for this interview he’s a historian? He’s confused from the get-go.
He needs to add at least 2 new keys "the overwhelming anti-incumbent president bias by the mainstream media and the lack of the Democratic party addressing and denouncing the urban riots during an election year.
David Williams the Democratic Party is just as corrupt as the Republican Party so of course that means they don't want riots or revolution to overtake the criminals and restore democracy.
@@jamesmedina2062I appreciate your
intelligent (broader) perspective.
But I'm thinking that Williams is referring to, when he says "...they need to add...", is potential additional factors for a win, rather than laying out his personal take on the matter. This is what so many including myself doing here. We've run off into opinion city rather than appreciate the "mechanics" of a somewhat notable person's process.
Avery Joycelyn Barakuda Block Were you missing a verb there: "...what we (are) doing here." ? I was not super clear as to your meaning.
I just don't understand how people don't expect what the authorities and politicians are apt to do as well as what the media will say to just keep everything the status quo and not innovate and adapt to the current situations and problems. The US government entities are all extremely inadequate and not receptive to the public. They are anti-democratic and censor and lie at every turn. People should know this and perhaps many do but basically the biggest problem in the United States is simply one: propaganda. If this and campaigns(costing billions) were not such a problem, we could find our way forward. It seems that at least you can thank Donald for one thing: getting people to question what they see on tv. Unfortunately his master plan is to spin things his way and not open the information floodgates as would be more appropriate. But seriously, just the act of lying to the public for any reason needs to be prosecuted. The management of information during the information era is a big deal.
I mainly wanted to point out what is so different now than when he correctly predicted the elections. BTW another deciding factor that I see is that Trump is an outsider and not your normal politician.
I found this interview interesting until he interjected his political opinion at the end which makes think he skewed his own successful model.
Wayne Ludewig
Ditto on your comment. You had a good run Professor.
So when he projected Trump’s victory last time this guy was a hero and now he has a different prediction and suddenly he’s biased? Please Trumptards, try to be consistent 😂
@@ng7306 He's a Liberal Hack, who is obviously biased and cannot be trusted to predict election results, period.
@@yasfspad3716 except when he predicted Trump last time 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Trump does not fit the mold of a politician so this guy's model is off. Biden is beyond weak and the silent majority is yuuuuuge.
All the naysayers can now see that you owe Mr Lichtman those 4 Yankees game tickets. 10/10
Patrick, please, please, please pretty PLEASE have him back on when he's wrong. I do want to see him go back through and figure out what got read wrong.
Agreed. Have him back.
I have been "sort of on the fence" about this channel. Now I am POSITIVE that I will not continue to waste my time.
He'll say that Trump cheated, just like he claimed Bush cheated against Gore, which is supposedly why he called that election wrong.
DJ Whitney I agree with you.
@@joyfulnoise2477 Trump will cheat again and bush also cheated it was proven ballots found in yards trash cans etc.
I predict he wrong 🤨
And i predict you 're right
Mfer must be getting feebleminded because Biden can't even feed himself at this point.
@@Americanwoman74 biden is manchurian candidate if I ever saw one
@@ChristianSuarez-gz1ig TRUTH!
ME TOO DJ!!! ME TOO
Even in Australia we can see that this guy's prediction is wrong this time.
He is letting his bias get in the way. He lost me when he asserted Russian agents were already in the US active and ready to disrupt the election again.
I have watched some news casts from down under (Sky News, I believe was the name), they are quite pro Trump, so not surprising to me 😉 😉😉
Oh jeez! I live in Australia too and even people I know who used to like Trump now recognise the insanity of him and his supporters. Everyone here in Australia that I've discussed the US election with convey to me that it's inconceivable that he can win this years election based upon the multitude of broken promises from his 2016 campaign and the catastrophic record of his first term. All one has to do is learn about his terrible business career and then look at his behaviour since Russia facilitated his 2016 election win (according to the the recent report handed down by the Republican-controlled Senate Intelligence Committee) to know that Trump is an absolute fraud in every way possible.
@@mypronounismom1056 Just like Fox News, Sky in Australia is owned by News Corp (Rupert Murdoch) and also like Fox News, the main news services are fairly balanced and definitely not pro-Trump, they're actually quite scathing of Trump because, of course, Trump says and does a lot of shockingly bad things. Also, like Fox News, on Sky News, there are far right-wing fringe dwelling opinion programs (which is what you are likely referring to) that most people see as wacky and few people watch (very low ratings). 😉 😉😉
@Dr. Jamal Washington The question is HOW is everyone going to stop them from mail in votes?
10 for 10 and Ive seen 3 of his predictions in real time I know this a fact. Looks like Patrick needs to give those tickets to Lichtman.
I think patrick won’t. He will delete this video as he is losing
@@mahinarafat1447 lol
@Billy D. Jacks actually it’s 10. You know what happened in 2000
Man who predicted rain is wet now predicts rain is dry!
Why waist time on such. no matter who wins, they all are the same don’t care about the masses and how they strive and survive
Exactly. Those previous predictions were hardly amazing.
Today he's merely propagandizing for the DemComs.
@I hate it Here I didn't say anything like that.
But now that you bring it up, somebody must be controlling him; I doubt he can control his own bowels.
LOL
@I hate it Here Well his wife won't be able to control him soon...
I met some people that had said to me, "I am voting for Trump, but don't tell anyone "
Prob because they'd become a target for the left! Even paying a sign in your yard sets the 🎯 on a person! So much hate!
@An Ly you're truly full of it mate.
In 2000, he inaccurately predicted, using his system, that Gore would be the next president.[10] Lichtman has provided commentary for networks and cable channels such as CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News.[11][12][13] In the 2016 election Lichtman predicted that Trump would win the popular vote; Trump ended up losing the popular vote (while winning the electoral college).
My feelings are the same his predicament was wrong IN 2000 you don’t win the presidency by popular vote you win by electoral votes as everyone knows the smaller states need electoral votes to even it out that’s how they set it up so he was wrong in 2000 popular vote doesn’t win the election and you are correct also SIR.
@@dynamicfirearmsinc432 It wasn't about EC and "small states how they set it up" even dummy, Bush stole the election by committing voter suppression in Florida while blaming the other side of fraud. Not just that, but voting machines were sabotaged. The popular vote, EC, and straight up cheating are three different things. He was right, Gore won both the EC and Popular vote. He won Florida, but gov Bush stole it. He made an accurate prediction.
his response was thousands of lost popular votes, ignoring the electoral college. That in itself speaks volumes
@@swav.zielin Bush got the critical and unexpected overwhelming evangelical Christian support.
_And Trump's is even greater!
@@swav.zielin The SC ruled that Florida couldn't recount only the dem counties around Miami and ignore the panhandle, quite a difference and an attempt to steal. The SC wouldn't let them. Bush didn't steal anything.
He didn't choose them he predicted them. Theres a big difference.
@Toma Rogers Because he was right?
I don't think his model is counting that the opponent cannot speak in complete sentences, takes naps at 10am and thinks he's running for the senate, c'mon, man, you know the thing! Corn Pop needs to take a look at that key thing while Joe is in the pool and his hair floats up and they like it.
?????
Trump
Cant speak in complete sentences.
@@breadordecide He does 2 hours speaches at every rally
Classic the funniest one by far, I know about cockroaches, c’mon man, if that’s not charisma what is.. I like it!!
Trump said he loves it when people count him out.
Most fools do
Then he'll be happy in November when the majority of Americans do exactly that.
Some One you’re dreaming! Ok what will be your excuse if he loses? Ohhhh let me guess. Mail in ballots were fraudulent. Dems cheated. If he wins you won’t say one word about mail in ballets. Orange Man will say nothing about mail in ballets either. Weird how that works huh?
@@charlessmallins7926 your exactly RIGHT! They are Blind..
They (the demon-crats) blame Trump for dividing the country.. but they all have FAILED to see or admit that the divide goes back to 2016 & The Demon-crat Queen herself Hillary Clinton!! And the rest of the Demon-crat party or the majority of the Demon-crats!! When she lost her & the whole party called for riots.. NOT protests..RIOTS!! And haven't stopped all along!! And have tried everything from A FAKE/SHAM of an investigation! That kept proving the guilt of the Demon-cratic party & there collusion! All this social discord & the deaths that have stemmed from it all goes back to 2016 the Demon-crats Demon Queen Hillary!! Because he's not one of them isn't bought off like they ALL ARE & Exposes Them ALL!! AND NOW they think socialism is a good idea!! The party of IDIOTS
Charles Smallins what are you in 3rd grade? My shitzu has a complexity of thought more developed than you.
For someone with a full proof “objective model” this guy has a lot of bias opinions and criticisms while also clearly favoring socialism, calling AOC “the future”.. lol
"full proof"? lol. I've never heard that expression before
@@remingtondeer8762 I've never seen a sentence not ended with some sort of punctuation, unless you're counting the preposition "before". FYI as incorrect as it is being a preposition at the end of a sentence, we just cannot pass it off as punctuation. In other words, get off his back for a silly typo or mistake.
@@hlredd1 get out of my way, nerd!
John Karantonis you missed the point. Everyone has bias...he stated multiple times you have to remove the bias in the modeling no matter how hard it may be. Otherwise, the model/forecaster is useless.
I think he meant AOC is a broken future
I want to remember who this guy is so I can come back and "comment".
I'm in 😂
That’s what the bookmark function is for.
_A bit of a respite..._
#soulcare for *Election Day.*
🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸
ua-cam.com/video/kVWLiJE6vUw/v-deo.html
♥️ ♥️ ♥️ ♥️
Where are you? You have his name. What do you say now?
Not just remember him.. should study him.
Allan Lichtmane candidly admits several times that the most difficult part is keeping his personal feelings out when measuring key indexes. I get the strong sense that on some of those keys that his personal feelings are influencing his decisions. Some of the examples for his reasoning’s are CNN talking points. I don’t see Biden who’s been cozy with the Chinese being president, but then again what do I know.
Donald trump is easily 10-1-2 military failure & success should be disregarded since he inherited a military failure when he assumed the presidency 💯
@Dr. Jamal Washington democrats are going to need to suppress the living and recruit the dead to have any chance at winning......and they'll STILL LOSE 💯
the only scary thing is 2024 because there is no candidate strong enough to defeat Hillary Clinton and since the democrats an blame every future mistake on the past president? Its literally open season on the planet and thats the only thing I worry about.
Also alexandria occasio Cortez will be the 2016 bernie sanders by 2032 <
If your reading this in the future she's a sell out 💯 dont trust her or tulsi or anybody else that works or is allied with the DNC. Hopefully this ages we'll ✌
Biden wins, case closed.
Bottom line, the professor’s winning streak ends this year.
lol yessss
lmao
GA D yesssss
Dr. Jamal Washington Agree
Dr. Jamal Washington yes he is wrong
I lost it when he said Hillary won the debates 😂😂 credibility out the window
Exactly and CNN couldn't figure out why KILLary couldn't beat Trump.
What do you expect from a leftist?
Hillary won the debates this guy is on drugs!!!
Actually, I believe the Leftist Media gave the debates to Hillary, just as they gave the DEMs since at least Clinton. And all they do is cry foul when they lose.
I almost fell off my seat when I heard him say HILLARY won the debates!! Well, at least I got my LAUGH 😂 of the day!! 😅😂😅
You better make good on that promise to him! He was right, again.
The keys are the keys. 😉
He doesn’t sound like he’s given up his biases. I predict this is his first miss
This guy has zero credibility.
He also said Gore would win. His criteria is subjective, such as charismatic leader/speaker and foreign policy. Heck, Trump has been nominated for the Noble Peace Prize and way more charismatic than Biden!
actually it will be his second and last....
I predict he loses this one too
Dont underestimate him he knows what he's talking about but you guys fears about this one thats why you all feel overwhelmed put your preferences aside and understand why says what he says
When he said obama was trustworthy I clicked over..
Exactly
The guy think more highly of himself than he should. His models are not always correct. When he is wrong he lies, and changes history in his eyes, like most Democrats. The professor predicted Gore to beat Bush in 2000. Then, when Bush defeated Gore, he flipped and said that he correctly predicted that election (which he did not). So this whole entire interview was based on a false premise, that he always gets it right. In December, he will say thay he predicted Trump, because the guy is a liar. Whatever sells books, right? Trump will win. Check out the odds makers in Las Vegas, if you have a question on that. THEY ARE RIGHT.
Thats what it takes to get you back into your echochamber again? Lol, personally I find that pathetic, Someone intelligent, or with a spine even, can handle an hour of opinions he doesn't agree with, let alone a single sentence.
@@TomOostenrijk what does the left know about having a spine?lmao...and I can handle opinions as long as they are TRUE lol
@@TomOostenrijk and someone with a spine shouldn't be brown nosing and should be giving an un biased opinion..
"PUTTING ASIDE YOUR OWN" HE HAS SLIPPED. Because Trump has done amazing on economy, dems took out with release of COVID, he has done well with military. This man has been so influenced by those around him and media, that he has lost his ability to be objective with his own model......his model actually would have worked if he had used without bias, but he will have first miss. I'm certain.
I agree!!! The economy was rebounding because Trump did have that magic wand Obama talked about, before the outbreak.
He’s deluded. I’m not sure Trump is going to win though. It’s going to be close and the courts are going to get involved.
Exactly, WHAT IS HE TALKING ABOUT???? he's crazy...zero credibility with all his totally false statements . .all his measurements are off
This guy is a whack job, Cena. The professor predicted Gore to beat Bush in 2000. Then, when Bush defeated Gore, he flipped and said that he correctly predicted that election (which he did not). So this whole entire interview was based on a false premise, that he always gets it right. In December, he will say thay he predicted Trump, because the guy is a liar. Whatever sells books, right? Trump will win. Check out the odds makers in Las Vegas, if you have a question on that. THEY ARE RIGHT. This guy is a con man.
Trump done amazing thinks? Yes, for those making a lot of cake that tax breakis only for the very rich only, as for the average person the economy is in bad shape, unemployment is high, evictions are high,.....what book are you reading over 200,000 dead because of this heartless selfish man who ignored the virus because he did not want to disturb Wall Street numbers,which would make him look bad. And it's hard to be objective towards trump when he is such a selfish narcissistic loser ....And you mentioned the military, well Trump called our vets who serve this country losers and suckers....Trump is a greedy cheese burger corrupt pig who cares only about himself, let me tell you that he cares nothing about his supporters he just told a reporter yesterday it's good thing that the virus came along because he doesn't like shaking hands with nasty supporters ....he called his supporters nasty, and like Cohen his supporters feel like you will take a bullet for Trump when he will not even shake your hand because he consider supporters nasty...Cohen did jail time for him and he laughed, he will use you and spit you out...he will not shake your hand but you will wast your gas to go to his rallies, he suggested you drink bleach now he wants you to take an unsafe vaccine before it has fully tested qualified safe that takes months not a few weeks, please do not take....DO NOT DRINK BLEACH AND TAKE THE POISON VACCINE remember Trump will not even shake your hand why risk your life for him
Whoever wins, I hope everyone behaves and we dont go through rallies.
_A bit of a respite..._
#soulcare for *Election Day.*
🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸
ua-cam.com/video/kVWLiJE6vUw/v-deo.html
♥️ ♥️ ♥️ ♥️
Yes everyone will behave if Biden wins because liberals are the only ones that throws fits when they don’t get their way and if they don’t then it will be time for the real men and women of the US to come out and play and spank their spoiled little asses!
Yeah, going through a Trump rally would be horrible. Thankfully none of us have to see one of those ever again! 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻 byedon
@@ejcahill418 Well your elected officials are representatives and they often guess what you want them to do. Protesting lets them know. But right after an election, you could argue your minority concern but the majority of people spoke in some fashion by voting.
@@ejcahill418 Law and Ordered restored. _Can you feel it?_ 🇺🇸 *A proud moment for America,* as it ushers in the *46th president.*
*More years of corruption* than the number of presidents in the country. *Welcome to a sad new era of control.*
🇺🇸 *God bless the USSA.* (Oh! You haven't heard yet... ? *The United Social States of America.*)
Did he just call Biden decent? What is he smoking 🤣
Compared to Trump.. A turd is decent
@Woohoo Trumps as corrupt as any one of them. Dont forget that him and the Clintons are great friends
The guy is a con man. The professor predicted Gore to beat Bush in 2000. Then, when Bush defeated Gore, he flipped and said that he correctly predicted that election (which he did not). So this whole entire interview was based on a false premise, that he always gets it right. In December, he will say thay he predicted Trump, because the guy is a liar. Whatever sells books, right? Trump will win. Check out the odds makers in Las Vegas, if you have a question on that. THEY ARE RIGHT.
@@rmcdaniel2424 that's the thing pal, Donald Chump does not care about you or I, he cares about not going to jail
That one really got me... as well as calling Anderson Cooper .. solid... definitely high on fantasy...
2020's been wild, would be the year he gets it wrong.
2020 is the year he is retired. The model seems great But his judgment is shaky. Carson Tucker is one of the most straightforward person and has very bright mind. And he has very negative opinion on Tucker
He can't have a perfect record all the time ! I think he's gonna have tarnish on his ego in November !
Litchman has meet his Waterloo this time 😂😂😂 that’s all I can say!
you like being so WRONG.....
Read Vox Populi's response to Lichtman's conclusions. voxpopuliwedare.blogspot.com/
atlnigga I might be wrong in certain things but not on this one ☝️, not now, not this time, not this year, not in the near future. And if you think otherwise... put your money down!
A D you (excuse word) s---dAF... no one will ever believe you BOY over someone who got it RIGHT for 30+ years
Ha...ha...CRICKETS....
You owe Allan
Some expensive Yankees tickets.
All those other folks who said he would be wrong aren’t here. Allan was so convinced even 5 days ago.
I'm gonna pretend I haven't watched this video....
Agreed
Trump will win because enough blue states chose to split their electoral votes (and for a number of other reasons, but just by the numbers, democrats gave up before they picked their candidate).
@@benjaminbarkowski2227 wait what do you mean by 'split up their electoral votes" the only two states in the union that split up their votes is Maine (2 districts and 3 for state wide) and Nebraska (3 districts and 2 states wide). No other "blue" state splits up their electoral votes.
@@czechmate5079Oops. You're right. I was incorrect. They opted to give all their electoral votes to whomever wins the popular vote. www.cnn.com/2019/03/16/politics/colorado-presidential-vote-electoral-college-law/index.html
@@benjaminbarkowski2227 nah it's cool I was coming off a bit passive aggressive in the reply
This year his theory gets shot to shit. He needs to add another key for STRENGTH OF BASE
Trump got no base. He got mindless same core from 4 years ago, cut in half
And how much the media lies vrs how many realize the lies.
Streaks end one way or another his streak ends this election
@@mrxrp4306 and if it doesn’t ? Lmao
When you have a 50% chance of being right doesn't make you a genius or clairvoyant if you are right.
Try calling it right for 9 consecutive coin tosses; the 50% chance of being right applies only to a single toss. The probability of 9 consecutive correct predictions (1984 - 2016) is very low, even with a 50% chance of getting it right on any single try. To be quite technical, the probability of 9 consecutive right calls is 0.001953; that is 0.2% approximately. Or, in more conversational terms, a chance of 2 in a 1000!
...please tell me you're not serious right now...I'm concerned you don't know how basic math works.
But he has been 100% right
50% yes. You forgot 9 times in a row. Go play roulette and try and see if you win 9 spins in a row on red or black. Roulette is actually 47.35 but nearly the same. If you played everyday that might happen once or twice a year
🐥
The Republican party is not just old white guys. He's disconnected and the end of the video shows he's horribly biased.
Indeed. The media’s lies have led him astray and will result in him being wrong. It is kinda sad for him to end his streak this way. The model seems like it would be correct. Charisma is on Trump’s side with once in a generation popularity among a vast and diverse people. My parents have never seen anything like it. His crowds are unlike anything I have seen in the US.
@@Austin1990 agreed, also military success. American's spent starting a war as a success or ending ISIS as a success. Then he brushes off the ME peace treaties like they're nothing because he's biased.
Good luck with that
He must have missed being nominated three times for the Nobel Peace Prize? So his prediction is off
Well I have a surprise for him 6 months before the 2016 election I dream Trump won that's right no models no keys I have currently just redeemed up Trump again so my prediction is he's going to get a second term and this guy is pretty finished what is predictions
What about defeating ISIS? I was sick of seeing people lead out to be beheaded. I think that was a pretty good win, especially after Obama said it would take generations. O sure wasn’t much on predictions.
Valerie Marchitello Peddicord LMAO Literally anyone can be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize! Trump fosters an environment of hate! Tell me again why that is a good thing?
@@laurah6381 proves all you do is watch Liberal media my family in COMMUNIST countries wish Trump was their president and how blessed we are to have someone who cares about our people you only prove your foolishness making a statement like that
Valerie Marchitello Peddicord world food program won the Nobel prize so that ship sailed already , Trump isn’t going to get a prize anymore
The most big important key is counting on God, who is in control on the Highest Throne and His decision is above all of the rest!
Amen!
There has been a decision against Trump.we hope it changes.
SIKA DOSOPUO
What decision?
PRAISE THE LORD 🙌🙌🙌🙌🙌🙌 GOD IS STILL IN CONTROL!!! HE ALONE KNOWS WHO WILL WIN!!!
Ah yes, believe in an unprovable fictional diety in peoples imagination as opposed to an educated professor who has real and factual information on this.
The factors missing from this guy's analysis are "cares about the country", "is not a liar", "does what is best for the country" and "does what he says". Politics has failed until this presidency. Obviously, what Trump has is what makes America great--the resolve to take care of the country, protect it and make it prosper.
The sarcasm is strong in this one.
And that God wins
Your comment is the hard unassailable facts - plain common sense instead of the nonsense narratives created by Dem propaganda.
I wonder if Donald Trump will send him another autograph or calling it again LOL
Military succes: False.
Uhh, remember ISIS? Yeah, neither do I. And they were huge from 2011-2014 and still around until *suddenly* they weren't.
That's because Obama couldn't figure out how much more billions he needed to bring peace to our enemies.
Every leftist agenda checks off isis wishlist. Bill gates daughter married a Muslim billionaire. Open borders defund police disarm military hate speech laws mask mandates (negates burka ban questions worldwide)
Wars are won with money. The west is overextended. The middle east has no debt and healthy gdp. They are sending economic migrants to western countries to suck dry the welfare system (financial jihad), have lots of babies and fight political jihad. They went attempted a coup in turkey and now are migrating to nuclear weapons capable western countries they hate, and refuse to assimilate when the middle east is full of wealthy counties where assimilation is not necessary. Is it a coincidence?
Same with al Quaeda
@@PrivatePrivate-do2on how is it relevant that Bill Gates married a Muslim? Do you have something against people with religions other than your own? oh right, you are in Trump's America, not racist at all.
He's wrong on covid issue. Ignorant about the science behind it or lack of it
Well blame Dr. Fraudci. He's our top expert and he's the one who said it wasn't more serious than the flu and that people didn't need to wear masks.
Are you a scientist researching covid? Anyone calling you on interviews for your two cents?
@@arainetjay hahahah. Good point.
His point that Trump's response to covid hurt the economy is spot on. You don't need to be a doctor or scientist specializing in viruses to know that.
@@susannahstiles2403 Not really. A total lockdown would have ruined the economy even worse.
And clearly this guy's bias is in the way this time.
Yep, as the interview goes on, he is showing his bias. Besides, that, God is NEVER wrong!
I'm in that camp with you! And he's wrong about the UAE Agreement being nothing important! In those 13 pillars he revealed his own TDS.
Julie, yes, and all of the other times this con artist was wrong. The professor predicted Gore to beat Bush in 2000. Then, when Bush defeated Gore, he flipped and said that he correctly predicted that election (which he did not). So this whole entire interview was based on a false premise, that he always gets it right. In December, he will say thay he predicted Trump, because the guy is a liar. Whatever sells books, right? Trump will win. Check out the odds makers in Las Vegas, if you have a question on that. THEY ARE RIGHT.
Oh except it wasn't. Turns out it was your bias not letting you consider his well-researched prediction. Remember he predicted trump in 16, why would he suddenly become biased after that?
Lmao!
When his prediction is proven wrong about Trump I will be spamming all his sites 😂😂😂😂
Well I'm sorry but you won't have that opritunity.
@@Zoroaster4 I’ll be replying to this comment to rub in your face if trump wins!
He is right.Tramp is going to loose the election
According to his predictions Trump loses thats all.
Just watched Moneyball and even in that syestem the A's lost so maybe Trump wins.
@@mohammedhasan1546 looks like u lost the spelling B 😂
Well, what Allan Lichtman was saying in this interview about covid was entirely wrong, so I can't place much credibility in anything else he said.
What did he say is wrong/
Are you a scientist researching covid? Anyone calling you on interviews for your two cents?
Then what do you blame for the economic crisis? Or do you deny there is one?
He was correct.
Most of these academics are fools, not prophets. Something about him not right.
His wig.
You are the fool for not knowing Trump is a lunatic.
ua-cam.com/video/kupZj_TN_XI/v-deo.html
He's a nutter.
Read my comment, he’s using the power of persuasion to influence everyone watching this video. By the look of this comments EVERYONE can see Right Through his Biased ASS! Haha! Trump 2020, Aloha!
“I trusted Obama” LMAO 😂 This dude is quackier than Daffy Duck
He has TDS.
@Dr. Jamal Washington There has always been mail in voting in America. What are you talking about! We did mail in voting when Trump won, so how come all of a sudden its a problem. The fact is there are more Democrats in this country than there are Republicans, and Trump seeing that he is in trouble doesn't want mail in voting, as he knows he will loose, so he wants to make it a problem this time, wasn't a problem last time though. Voter Suppression, reducing the number of polling stations in certain areas making it difficult for people to vote is all things done by Republicans!! so who is cheating?
karen morrison our governor is democrat and is removing polling stations in rural republican counties and increasing in democrat cities. Ballots go out to dead people and in California 117percent voted. My thought is that when you bring in your paper mailed ballot to vote in person that the clerks office can use that in their favor. Or use those that were never mailed back and counterfeited those.
@Dr. Jamal Washington im voting early 😁 nice fake profile btw
Bahhahaha exactly
Looks like you owe him some tickets. Lol. Great interview.
I'm surprised how Trump scared the dems so much they picked the most moderate candidate.
Before when there were other candidates Trump didn't want to have debates. Now that we have Biden he wants to have a lot of them. Why do you think that is 🤔
Moderate. You gotta be joking
@@yochiro0864 Trump's always wanted debates. He couldn't wait to destroy hitlery
@@yochiro0864 You are either deeply misinformed or making things up out of thin air.
@@AJPK33 it's not either... Look it up. Trump has said this. You may have forgotten because there is so much news everyday. He wanted to bypass the debates during the primary
American voter: I'm about to end this mans whole career.
Amen
Yesss 😎
Somebodies career will end, won't be Litchtman's.
Ohhhhh. Yeahhhh!
You don't end a career over one error in prediction lol smh
NO! HE IS WRONG. THE ODDS ARE AGAINST HIM BEING RIGHT. 9 out of 10 times someone can be right, but no one is right all the time. The odds are against him being right this time.
I'm right all the time...and I predict a Trump win for 2020. Just need to look and compare the sheer amount of Trump stuff around. I have yet to see any Biden campaign stuff around Phoenix and we're #5 for nation's largest cities as of 2019.
No one can be 100pct right
JG Lee according to him this does not matter.
1912 the challenger won with just 5 keys, and he got Al Gore wrong... no models are prefect, but this one shows Trump has an up hill battle. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC349231/pdf/pnas00662-0692.pdf
You did it again
This guy clearly has an agenda, he also a democrat
He’s trying to convince Trump supporters to stay at home and not vote!
Delilah Rainelle who’s ever believed in this guy. You are and idiot. Look very in the eyes of the devil 👿. Only God know what is coming.
But he predicted Trump would win in 2016. Don't get me wrong, I hope and pray to God he's wrong. But I have a nagging feeling Biden is going win. It's terrifying to me, but what the liberal left media has done to smear Trump since he's been in office seems to have brainwashed enough people for him to lose in 2020. God help us...
bls001 ... well, if Biden wins, then it’s because the left dismally succeeded in a way to steal the election, because crowds are indicative of the winner. Trump was drawing 35,000 people at one rally and Alzheimer’s Joe didn’t have but 15 or so. The news wouldn’t even show joe’s crowd.
With Trump having the virus, that will only boast his numbers.
@@bskee001 You're an idiot just like trump. Trump is destroying everything in his path and all you can thing of is the so called liberal left smearing him. He does that all by himself. Be a Republican, be a conservative or whatever you are, but to think Trump is some savior or he's on your side is delusional.
I would love to see him back as a guest after Nov 3.
I agree, he should. He deserves more recognition now that he’s correctly predicted 10 consecutive elections.
This man obviously knows nothing about the silent majority.
And you know nothing about election selection process. Our votes never counted.
Which no no longer exists.
That's what I said smh he is so wrong it's Trump 2020 by a landslide
Streaks end one way or another I think his streak ends this election
He is right..AGAIN! All the main stream media should start looking into his model instead of emphasizing in the useless polls.
Agreed. We vote based on actual governing. I mean its so simple its stupid not to give it more focus and attention.
The whole world is in recession: Europe is down 15%, Japan is down 10% and US is down 9.1% while the Nasdaq is up 30% to record highs this year
Does the economy control the market?
China is backing Biden / Russia is backing Trump - Biden will win the popular vote BUT on election night Trump will be ahead and take it I think. If Biden is ahead on election night he is going to be dealing with an economic disaster and I think China will invade Taiwan - it's an election the Democrats shouldn't want to win.
If Biden is behind on election night but ends up ahead EVERY day that there is no decisive winner is going to take the markets down and the rioting up. Good luck America - sort this out or China will be in charge.
@kcotte59 lmao kcotte59 what's your experience in real world economics tho
Maryj no, The economy controls the people.
Sunny Goold Russia & China appear to get along very well. Why would Russia want Trump to win, as he has put many sanctions on them? Also, why would Russia want Trump to win when they know they can buy about anything they want or need from Democrats, including Uranium, which we need for many things, including medicine? Just give me one good reason.
I believe this man's biased has messed up three of his keys. Anybody else could have different count
The POLL key was a DEAD CERTAINTY that it was WRONG.... And allen KNOWS this!!!!!!!
@pirramimma100 But he's making the judgment calls like does POTUS have charisma. Does he only watch fake news? Does he see how many giant boat parades there have been during a "pandemic"? Does he see the giant overflow crowds at his rallies?
He is wrong on so much because of bias and being fed fake news
The economy short and long term would of been great if it wasn’t for the pandemic. He even says so but counts that against Trump. Doesn’t make sense. But he puts that as a false. As well as unrest. He’s getting it very wrong. And it’s not a math equation when the true and false are his opinion. I can’t agree with his assessment of picking who will win or loss. This hasn’t been a “normal” 4 years or election coming up. We all see what’s going on.. our country is very much on the line.
@@majestic7107 ...that's the problem with those who "write the rules" of a predictive process...they like to apply them according to that which wasn't written in the rules and for a good reason. They are bias to their own game. He is blinded by his own reflection. He is a democrat, that's enough at this point, he is either legally blind or blind to legality...
Or stated a different way, the Dr.L is a slave to ignorance or an evil member of that which is our current enemy of the state (he is still enslaved either way.)
It's not who votes that count, it's who "COUNTS" the votes that determines the "winner" of an election...
@eric walter111 If you're a Trump supporter, you don't want all the votes counted... not if you want to win. That's why you all are trying to steal the election. But God has other plans and will not allow for this antichrist to further damage this great nation and planet.
@@american_cosmic really. Who is sending out mail in ballots to every household without vetting? Sounds like Dems are planning to steal the vote!
@@KM-zn3lx Who is setting up FAKE BALLOT BOXES? Sounds like Republicans are trying to steal the elections. Who in Texas made it so there would be only one voting location in every country, making it harder for voters to get to the polls? Sounds like Republicans. Who worked for the U.S. Post Office and was caught and arrested for disposing of mail, which included ballots? A FUCKING REPUBLICAN. So quit with your bullshit about Democrats are trying to steal the election. They don't need to... they win more votes than the Republican candidate every single time. All Democrats want is a fair election that all citizens have a chance to participate in. That's all that's needed for them to win. Republicans are the one's that are gradually losing their grasp on the people and are doing every little thing they can to try to turn the tide. And I say this as someone who is NOT a Democrat... I will not be voting this election, because I do not vote for Republicans and Democrats. When there's a systemic change that allows for actual democracy and allows for third-party challengers to participate in the race, I will not be voting in these elections. So bottom line, I'm not saying ANY of this because I'm a Democrat or a Biden supporter. I absolutely am not. I'm just like most Americans who are absolutely disgusted with the performance Trump has turned in as POTUS. Even the smart Republicans see this and have come out and said so. It's only the Koolaid-drinking GOP Eichmans that continue to lick Trump's asshole and further allow him to piss and shit all over this country. If you still support Trump, today... FUCK YOU, traitors.
Said every Al Gore voter.....Glass houses homie
@@american_cosmic You obviously get your news exclusively from CNN. If you are a Christian, you had better pray that Donald Trump gets reelected or you may just see first hand what Communists do to Christians...
So glad I watched this over a month ago. I used this as my basis for arguing that Biden would win and it worked. Genius is genius.
@suny123boy1 Oh he's won all right. You need to pay attention to not only the actual vote results but also that all of his attempts to go the legal route are getting dismissed. Winner : President Biden. The same way you losers lost the actual election (went on an on that Trump would win) is the same way you're going to get a taste of more reality when he loses every b.s. attempt @ legally getting it over turned. Wake up
@suny123boy1 You should probably relax internet thug. Not only are you ratting on yourself trying to be a tough one on the net but I already know you're weak for even getting feelings about an internet comment. You should go find some weak animal to pick one, I'm a tiger you don't wanna play with
I still cant believe he didn't mention ISIS elimination
Considering 7-6 in keys, if Trump wins again he is going to say that Trump managed to change one of the keys in last minute. And he obviously have leftist preferences
That's because ISIS hasn't been eliminated!!!!!! You think just because the media doesn't talk about ISIS they have magically disappeared? That's like thinking the Taliban is gone! Know your facts they are still alive and well. Regrouping
@@ferdetloster7306 but didnt he predict Orange Man to win 3 years ago. So how does he have a leftist view genius?????
I would assume he would get this wrong because he watches fake news. No where in history has a President had absolutely 100% negative news. Unprecedented. He is bound to get it wrong. First thing I thought of was ISIS
V Durant what about ISIS????? Trump didn’t eliminate ISIS no more than Obama eliminated the Taliban after Bin Laden was killed no more than Bush eliminated the Taliban after he ran them out of power after 9/11. These crazies don’t just disappear. They are still out there just because the FAKE MEDIA as you all conveniently call them doesn’t report them doesn’t mean they are gone. Just because Trump says he destroyed them doesn’t make it true. Have they been degraded....YES. ALL they are doing now is regrouping...staying low key and will re-emerge just like the Taliban has done. Stop being so naive
He is Nuts....
He calls his opinion-fact, and true facts-opinions...
Lol...exactly
typical dem--makes up his own facts------trumps approval poll is 53% and no 60% of people do not hate trump
John, he is a con man and a pathological liar. The professor predicted Gore to beat Bush in 2000. Then, when Bush defeated Gore, he flipped and said that he correctly predicted that election (which he did not). So this whole entire interview was based on a false premise, that he always gets it right. In December, he will say thay he predicted Trump, because the guy is a liar. Whatever sells books, right? Trump will win. Check out the odds makers in Las Vegas, if you have a question on that. THEY ARE RIGHT. When Trump wins, Lichtman will flip and lie again.
did you listen to the interview? Clean your ears. He doesn't use his opinion. The keys are based on facts. Something you and your kind know nothing about.
That's exactly what's called gaslighting!
I’m looking at the keys myself and I would argue that he is off on this one
You’re losing this time, Trump rides a red wave!
Yeah, I am watching this from the perspective of knowing that Trump won. And, I am trying to figure out how the professor missed this one. And, I look at how close of a call this was. One key being flipped would make the difference.
One thing stands out as something that could influence several keys. The professor is basing his judgements upon data from the media. And, the media is fabricating a false reality.
Polls at Trump rallies indicate that Trump is reaching an extremely broad group of people. Yet, the professor echoes the media’s talking point of Trump’s voter base being white men. I have never seen people gather in the US like they are for Trump. I feel the false rating for charisma may be based upon misleading reports. Just look at the #walkaway movement. This error alone would tip the keys in favor of Trump.
And, scandals have been intense but in Trump’s favor. I followed the impeachment case closely, not from the media but from the hearings and official reports. It really was a hoax, and you didn’t have to dig deep to realize that. Then, the FBI forged an email from the CIA to justify bugging Trump’s campaign. These are just the beginning of the scandals, all against the challenging party rather than against Trump or Republicans.
I could go on. We have a very odd climate where two “realities” are present: reality and a false reality that the media pushes. Which one are voters listening to? The professor is basing his keys upon the false reality.
Yeah I think he's about to go 100-1
Trump will win in 2020!
There was a red wave but he fell off of it.
Another nomination for the Nobel Peace Price. Tybring-Gjedde: “The people who have received the Peace Prize in recent years have done much less than Donald Trump. For example, Barack Obama did nothing."
Yet another peace deal between Isreal, UAE and Bahrain. Lichtman is a very foolish man. As an engineer I understand the necessity of looking for more accurate ways of arriving at analytical answers. Lichtman apparently does not.
It seems like his timing is very critical-- Jan 2020 - Trump would have won. Today- Sept 2020 - he’s saying no.
he addressed that point, it takes something like covid that changed the keys in his system. Like the man said, if third quarter growth is 60% and wipes out the job losses we have going then it would change a key.
How can he predict Charisma of the election in 1865 ?
Ye height of stove pipe hat dost show of a mans chariſma.
Lmaooo
Hahaha
he's a salesman first and predictor second. He has a book he wants everyone to buy.
Archives.....I study them too
Now I'm afraid to ask him about my future.
He forgets God Almighty in his keys.
Exactly!
exactly ! God's glory be upon His chosen servant , the Lord uses according to His purpose...
LoL Sky Daddy can't help Trump this time...
@@Indigolakes Greetings, it does not matter what anyone thinks. God is always in control. Either way God's plan prevails in my life your life, everyone's life. I pray for your salvation Keith Adams, because in the end God is our only Hope and Savior, Not Man.
@behindeverybladeofgrass That ancient way of thinking and brainwashing has to change. Ask yourself how many people throughout history prayed to the sky god when being molested, sexually assaulted, raped, maimed, tortured, and murdered that received instantaneous mystical help from the invisible one in the sky. It is time for you to grow up and advance out of the Dark Ages.
This guy’s TDS is going to give him his first L.
Couldn't have put it better.
He won't acknowledge a legit loss. Already claimed all of the TDS talking points to make excuses for himself. Plus he lost against Gore and doesn't count that one either! Win streak? Pfft.
It bothers you cultist
@@EverlastGX Why would someone's fantasy about Trump losing bother anyone you lunatic?
Yeah Harvard Professor, what does he knw. Sheesh you guy's are dense and just grasping at straws
There are ALOT of factors this guy doesnt appreciate. It's like he's not even aware of the state of the DNC, Biden, the nature of the plandemic, or just growing public sentiment in general.
U know this is effecting ALL countries, not just America, right? 🤨
Why Not Americans are the ones voting in the election.
@My Creative Learning We have way more people so that number is meaningless. By percentage America is doing pretty good. And i especially don’t want to hear a damn noise from anyone supporting the democrats when they’re the ones crowding the streets for months, and sending sick people back to retirement homes to purposely inflate the numbers. What shithole country are you from anyway 💀 the only growing sentiment is that Biden is a dead body and the democrats are willing to murder and destroy just to win
Amen to that.
Pat, you just lost 4 tickets but won a subscriber and admiration on how you conduct interviews!
actually he won 4 tickets and the new subscribers. Trump's win in 2016 was a hole in one fluke. A Democrat candidate in 2016 who was unpopular in the three states that decided the electoral college was replaced by Democrat was not nearly as unpopular.
Lichtman could see that a mile away.
What no one predicted was that Trump would alos lose Georgia, Arizona, the House Majority, the Senate and White House all in one term. That's not happened in 50 years.
"I can't go outside my system" - that's fair. But it is also a limitation. Does your system account for all of the current "unprecedented" variables that may influence your keys?
The credibility metric is probably fair. The wildcard here is the perception and reaction to the pandemic. We are getting near-real time information about how this pandemic actually behaves. And it isn't as lethal to a broad set of the population. So we don't know how the credibility metric will really behave. There is a real threat to people's ability to make a living based on state specific protocols. That isn't necessarily on washington.
He claims that it does.
This election feels more volatile than any in the series he has previous predicted correctly, but the model is based on a much larger set of data that includes many election more volatile than this one. But, he wasn't alive during all of them, so his model leans heavily on his reading of history, and that may be where some bias creeps in. He is a historian, so he will have a very good understanding of those election before he was experiencing them first-hand, and he seems quite intellectual honest and capable of keeping his own preferences for the future separated from his assessment of the past. But translating complex knife-edge elections 100+ years ago into 13 key indicators in a model looses nuance. While his model may yield the correct result for hundreds of elections, only a few were as crazy as this one, so it doesn't have the depth it normally has. His approach got it wrong in 2000, and this is another one where his model probably isnt calibrated 'perfectly' so it not suitable for the very close elections . That said, I wouldn't bet against model. His model is actually saying keep your money in the bank because this one is too unpredictable.
George's floyd murder was fabricated same as riots to further weaken trump before election
@@igor6815 What evidence do you have for that conclusion?
@ 1. Please spend a few hours looking through 'excess deaths' data, and you should see 6% isnt right either, and excess death is raw, and we can build our conclusions from it. The truth is somewhere in the middle. You need to care about the 94% to understand the 6%. I only understand about 50% of the 94% , but that is enough to know the 6% is just an opposite misinfo distilled into a viral soundbites that make us more polarised because all sides are relying on different sets of wrong conclusions. A lot of the deaths (excess and 'covid') use classification codes which are not explained, which is a failure of govt/media/uni/etc. They shouldnt be telling us what to think. They should be giving us the tools to be able to read the data ourselves so we can think about it. 2. Corporate media distorts everything. News at 11. ;) Sadly 'social media' is typically even worse, such as above saying it was 'fabricated'. That distortion is not merely bias - it is malicious , perhaps even unintentionally. And it is part of 'social media'? No, it is anti-social to lie like that. We have to be having more truthful and complex discussions than corporate media is offering.
This guy is gonna be bummed when he catches his first L.....His “keys” are outdated and not applicable to the current social climate
the keys are likely ok, his bias however got TDSd hard. Formulas only work when you apply them to reality . start using an alternate reality, you will get alternate results
lets see whose right after the election
I'm with the guy that has a 100% win record.
@@STRAIGHTBOXMUSIC totally agree however there are no predictions for what's going on right now
radcow I guess you missed when he mentioned a few scenarios in which ppl said the same thing you just did and he proved them wrong.
I predict he is wrong. He keeps mentioning his impartiality but he’s clearly bias.
I don’t think you were listening.
That’s fine. He predicted trump and was also chastised for it 🤷🏾♂️
Agree!
Correct, and he doesn't even realize it. Brainwashed libtard.
So that's why they concocted at least 6 negative keys for Trump to fall : out of lies and under-the-belt blows !... Whatever the end result, God will still have His LAST WORD !
Amen 2 That, I said Trump will Win, " prez. Trump will lead America to God..😀
I sure hope so, too, but he's still got a little ways to go on an other level, the spiritual level ; but for now, we're talking politics, so let's keep to that. I like D. Trump, not because I agree with him on everything, but because he is SINCERE - and courageous, on top of it : a balm to the soul who had TOTALLY GIVEN UP ON POLITICS, and a hope that God might not have forgotten this Earth yet, and might still intend to MAKE SOMETHING GOOD OUT OF IT. For now, the rest is details...
HONESTY will win the world, if it is meant to be won for God : His world CANNOT be ruled by dishonesty and crookedness.
Let's keep praying for him.
MMEMJE.
@@drifttandemz101sidewayzz9 Thank God, you were wrong. Satan does not lead people to God.
@@Marie-MadeleineEJones sending prayers to prez. Trump & Ted indeed he will "Triumph..."😃