You are the most relatable, down to earth, and level-headed UA-cam investor right now. Thanks for being a practical source for the everyday American. I needed this to keep me from panic selling.
Thanks Ben, great video as usual. You're really doing us all an enormous favor by going through all the research and synthesizing it for us in a clear and understandable way. Thanks to you, we can spend our time on hobbies, family, friends and other things instead of plowing through the 33 pages of "Negative Bubbles: What Happens After a Crash". Please keep it up!
You are the reason why I started to invest and still invested in a globally diversified portfolio. Your advice have really changed my investment behavior. Thanks Ben!
Absolutely. Its true that emotional people don't do well at investing because we panic in the downturns, which is why we need someone like Ben to tell us the facts.
4 роки тому+3
I think I don't need a finance advisor. But listening to your videos I can see the benefits of having one in these hard times - reassurance.
Great words Ben. People echo the "this time is different" narrative during extreme market swings, both up and down. Clear and cool headed minds always prevail. Congrats in advance on 100K subscribers. I first checked in at around 4,000.
I am so glad to hear someone approaching this in this way. Narrative drives people not facts. We have blinded ourselves by rising intellect to a pedestal.
Helpfully clarifying just when I need it--thank you, Ben. As a literature prof I enjoyed your discussion of the psychological "narrative" that takes hold--we're all story-tellers, after all. We need to read beyond our current chapter, as you say, and keep reading the book.
Informed, calm and far away from emotional. A great blend for a successful investment advisor. Your use of research data is the only way to convince a well informed investor. Well done. By far the best on UA-cam.
I've must honestly say Ben, the delivery was clear and concise by providing historical prologue research with current data to see the picture of how the behavior in terms of epidemic events and maintain logically risk-appropriate portfolios when thinking long-term. Having an efficient plan. Nicely done!
I must say, you're very good at slowly but surely smashing my dream of making it big in the financial sector. I mean more and more I need to accept that stock markets seem to be relatively efficient. And I don't feel like the chances of me being the one that proves academia wrong about investors beating the factor risk adjusted expected returns by a statistically significant margin are in my favour. I feel like there's no point in trying to find inefficiencies that persist, but that doesn't mean I won't try. And yes I know that this video is very random to comment it on. I just want to say thank you for providing very detailed, comparatively easy to understand content (compared to the language those papers use) for free.
When there is blood in the streets ... YOU BUY, even if the blood is your own. - Baron Rothschild said it like 5000 years ago and it's going to be the same this one. The ACTUAL catalysts are different, not the effects.
The One Thing that makes my panic-monkey want to press the sell button is watching those so called "news". Thank mr. Felix for reminding us yet again to keep our heads cool at stick with the plan.
It just so happened that I bought my very first index funds when the market were down 10% in this crisis. It's scary to see how volatile it all is as a first hand experience. But I've decided not to sell anything and just let it be.
Good on you! Statistically it is more likely to lose money timing the market as the legendary investor Peter Lynch once said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”
@@mavioz I'm pretty sure he stated this in another video, where he just said that it really doesn't make a difference. But you're taking a risk at a later moment.
Most of the advice in this thread is, on a statistical and probability basis, correct. With that being said, I would like to share the information provided by Jay Hauer about when we enter a secular, or "generational," bear market. Quoting Jay: "The reason secular bears are called “generational” bear markets is because it generally takes about a generation for everyone to forget the lessons of the prior secular bear. Once that happens, retail investors grow exceedingly complacent. And why wouldn’t they be? Stocks have always recovered relatively quickly from every bear market during THEIR time as investors. Most of them have never studied a very-long-term chart, and don’t realize that not all bear markets are buying opportunities." "No one who started trading/investing after 1982 has ever seen a secular bear market. This is why you’re getting advice on this question such as 'Don’t sell in a crash!' 'Be sure to buy the whole way down!' 'Stocks always come back for the long haul!' This advice is spoken by people who have only lived through cyclical bears, in the context of the much larger secular bull market that began in 1982. And it's really, really dangerous advice. Imagine if you took this advice in 1968, and started buying as the market began tanking. If you “bought the whole way down,” you would be underwater until the 1990’s. I don’t know what sort of time horizon you have, but most people aren’t prepared to sit on losses for 20+ years. You could be dead by the time you break even." Jay goes on to say, "My work suggests that the next bear market we experience will probably still be a cyclical bear, so the advice you’re getting to “buy the dip” might work one more time. But I suspect that the bear which FOLLOWS that one (my preliminary time frame is 2025) will be a true secular bear." I encourage you to read Jay's entire answer, not to fear monger, but to give you a balanced understanding of what has, could, and at some point again in the future, will happen when another secular bear market arrives. www.quora.com/What-should-I-do-during-a-stock-market-crash
@@PxFireblaze I'm pretty sure research shows that investing a lump sum is * statistically * advantageous. However, it might be a good idea to dollar cost average (on a relatively short period) for psychological reasons - it's akin of buying an insurance against the current situation: it will usually not be optimal, but you're trading off a statistically optimal move for your peace of mind.
I have said it before. I will say it again. Ben's presentations on various investing issues beat any college or university professor that I ever had. And I had a bunch of them at some really good business schools. He is just flat refreshing, in no small way because he focuses on facts and a rational presentation of them.
Ben, you are unmistakably bright and capable...your videos always offer a thoughtful, well-reasoned, and informative perspective. Thank you for helping me to learn.
Just found this channel. Brilliant. You are like a steady hand at the wheel during a storm. Calming and reassuring. Many thanks Ben. Very interesting to see this video in retrospect. You were right, cos' the markets have bounced back as the pandemic threat has receded, and how. A great reminder to look at the facts and stick to your plan. I let emotion, ignorance and narrative from the media convince me to sell a lot of share funds as the markets crashed in 2008, and it was the worst financial decision of my life. I lost 10 years of previous growth and all subsequent gains when the markets recovered. I didn't make the same mistake last year. But won't next time be different? Lol!
This week is a great time to rewatch this video. I am down nearly 10% over the last month, but guess what? That's fine! Keeping it invested because I'm holding these stocks for 20+ years.
Thank you Ben. This is the best video I have seen in 3 weeks! I appreciate your fact-based information. More people need to listen to you to calm them down so they make rational decisions.
This is the information and mindset that really allows people to make the biggest gains in the long run. Invest with money in a way that allows you to look at a decline in your portfolio without panicking. Believe in your investment decisions (do your research) and think about the timeframe of your investments. If you have an especially strong conviction related to a certain stock, think about throwing some extra money (without compromising your emergency savings) at it when people are the most worried about the economy. If you are invested in “luxury goods” like Tesla, remember that high earners likely have the ability to work remote. If you are invested in software as a service, this is their time to expand market share. If you are invested in travel or industries heavily impacted, this is the best time to see if they had underlying balance sheet issues. I think the people who watch this channel and really understand it will be extremely well off in the long run!
I’ve seen all the market crashes: The Stock Market Crash of 1987, The Dot.com Bust of 1999-2000, The "Great Recession" Stock Market Crash of 2008. We will recover as a nation and be just fine. Great video! #WallStreetBravado
I admire the financial independence of people, But you can live better if you work a little more. After watching this I think there are people out there, on the extreme, who plan to die early just to be able to retire early. To each their own but to me, retirement isn't just about not having to work, it's about having the freedom to do whatever you might reasonably want, such as travel, buying things, enjoying life, etc. I don't think I could retire with less than $3m in income-generating investments, maybe $2m at the very minimum. I plan to work until I'm at least 45
Nobody knows anything, you need to create your own process, manage risk and stick to the plan, through thick or thin while also continuously learning from mistakes and improving
@@ElizabethSarah-cl3sc Having an investment adviser is the best way to go about the market right now, especially for near-retirees, I've been in touch with a coach for a while now mostly cause I lack the depth knowledge and mental fortitude to deal with these recurring market conditions, I netted over $220K during this dip, that made it clear there's more to the market that we avg joes don't know
it is video's like this that makes Ben different from the herd. Good work with the story telling style, you made something that is based on imperial data and analysis actually linked to emotions.
"The stock market is a device for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient" Remember if you buy and hold over the long run, it is a winning game!
Really, really great. Nothing new in particular for me, having also been a follower of behavioral economics for a while, but an incredibly concise summary of the multitude of human and economic factors at play.
Great video. I was keenly anticipating that you'd put out a video on the current issue. People often forget that the stock price is largely built upon expectations. For example, the strong expectation at the moment is that Q1 GDP growth will be slowed and Q2 will be negative (US) and my country (Aus). I have heard people saying that they will buy in after these periods except these facts will already be majority priced in and if results EXCEED expectations then they would miss out on excellent gains.
I loved your line, "the narrative may be different" because, as you said, each crash is different! Though they are all caused by different events, all crashes share one thing in common: a rebound. I loved your video, Ben. Thank you!
did you start with a lump sum? If you are doing monthly deposits this is probably the best start yiou could hope for. Sure starting two months later would have been better in hindsight, but you are getting some very serious discounts right now and likely for the months to come.
Timing could have been worse, even if you invested a lump sum back in January: for example, let's say the crash happened next year and two years of savings/tax return would be affected. I know it's easy to say and harder to practice, but if you went with stocks, it should have been because you're here for the long run. You should never invest in risky assets money you'll need in short or medium term exactly because of what is happening right now. If you keep invested, you have a positive expected return, you just don't know when it will materialize. It could be the next year, 5 years or 10 years. And if you keep investing and stocks keep declining you will be to buying lower and lower... so not such a bad time to start investing at all.
Thanks to my own research enforced by your videos I’m sitting pretty with my portfolio. Not worrying at all as pullbacks like that are expected and calculated in. Last Friday of this month I will buy more again continuing with my dollar cost averaging - business as usual. Only thing different is that I will rebalance REITs into VTI (what I planned for few months ago) to collect some capital losses for my tax returns next year. Having 100% trust in your plan is a blessing that alleviates all the anxiety from investing. Thanks Ben, you are really changing people lives.
March 20: I feel the time to sell was weeks or months ago, so at this point I’m riding it down to ride it back up. I have suspended contributions for the time being as I feel this is going to get significantly worse before it gets better. I’ve been waiting for the market to tank out for a while now so I’ve kept cash on the sidelines waiting for an opportunity. I didn’t expect anything like this. Will probably wait another month or so before starting to DCA that extra cash in. A vaccine is still a long way out, but hopefully we can find a more successful treatment before then. Good luck to all of you, in your health and wealth!
Ive been waiting for this video. As a young investor this is my first crash, it sucks, but as a long term investor i will be fine since i am properly diversified. Everyone has heard selling in a recession is bad but actually having the discipline to hold when everyone is losing their life savings is something different. I have family members panicking and wanting to sell and hold their money in a bank. This video will help me help them.
Hi ben. It would be cool if you spoke about options on a future podcast or video. I thought of a decent idea that incorporated options in with an index / factor portfolio. I would love to hear your opinion on it. The strategy involves buying covered calls. Before you chalk it up to market timing / active management, hear me out. Whenever your portfolio is in need of a rebalance from bonds to equities, you would write covered calls on some portion of the newly purchased equities. For example, if you had a $10 000 50 /50 portfolio, and equities went down, making your current asset allocation is 25/75, you would need to sell $2500 worth of bonds and buy $2500 worth of equities. Rather than just buying $2500 worth of equities, you would write a covered call with some of the equities you are about to buy (say $1250, but this is arbitrary). This means you will instantly collect the premium for selling the call. The expiration date doesn't matter too much with this strategy. The strike price, however, will be the price you were going to sell your equities at anyways once they go up. Isn't this timing the market? No, because once equities reach a certain price, you would need to sell some to rebalance anyways. This strategy isn't about market timing. This definitely sounds confusing, so let me outline the possibilities that could happen. For simplicity, let's say the equity ETF you hold is trading at $100. Let's also say you would rebalance if the price reached $130. Of course, this is arbitrary, but that's the nature of rebalancing. Some people rebalance based on time, and some do so off weights. So, the strike price of the covered call your writing will be $130, meaning you are on the hook to sell some number of shares at $130. Of course, this is a covered call, so you already purchased those shares at $100. 1. The price of equities goes down. If the price of equities goes down, you will lose money, but this has nothing to do with the covered call. As long as you write the covered call on something you are okay with going long on, and holding for the long term, you won't be harmed. Of course, in this case, we are writing the covered call on the equity ETF you would be holding anyways. So, if the price drops, the option will not be exercised. This leaves you in the same position you would be in if you didn't sell the option, but now you have collected the premium, making you better off then just buying the ETF. 2. The price rises, but does not reach the strike price ($130). If this happens, the option will not be exercised. Because of this, you will be in the exact same position as you would be if you just bought the ETF, but with the premium collected from writing the covered call. Again, you benefited because of the premium. 3. The price reaches and goes over $130, the option is exercised, and the shares are called away. This is the scary one now. When you are the writer of an option, you DON'T want the option to be exercised. Normally this means losing money. Hear me out though. Also, for the sake of the example, let's pretend the ETF price is now trading at $150. Obviously this is a covered call, so you don't need to go out onto the open market and buy shares at $150, and then sell them at $130 to the person exercising the option. You bought the shares for $100, and now you would be selling those same shares (for a profit) at $130. Big deal your saying, that's how a covered call works. You are selling for a profit, but obviously, you could have sold for $150 on the open market. Your upside is limited, and there is no free lunch. While this is true, as an index investor, you would have rebalanced your portfolio during the ride up. If you didn't sell the option, and rebalanced and bought more equity ETF shares normally, chances are, you would have sold at some price under 150 anyways, to rebalance your portfolio. This isn't about betting that a stock will rise but stay below a set price (as most of the time selling covered calls are). I didn't do the exact math in this example, but if you rebalanced your portfolio according to weightings, there would be a price that you would sell at. In this example, I'm just using $130 as that price. If you calculated the price equities would need to reach for your portfolio weightings to be off by x amount, you would use that as the strike price. This means you would be selling at that price anyways. With options, you would be selling at that same price, but plus collecting the premium from writing the option. I hope you understood what I tried to outline. In all three cases, you're actually better off writing the covered call then you would have been if you didn't. Hopefully you also see that this isn't a market timing strategy. Please respond if you have any questions about it. I would love to hear your thoughts!
Great video! Fast forward to Oct 2023 and nobody even seems to remember Covid anymore and people now think their assets will evaporate as a consequence of the geopolitical landscape. Like Bogle used to repeat: Just stay the course.
You might be the best investing channel on UA-cam.
I couldnt agree more
@@pedrocastro1568 Quality info for sure
No question. Who else actually cites papers and doesn't try to advance their own narrative/brand?
Kingsley Zissou totally. I aspire to be this good.
Do you have any quality investing chanels to suggest ?
Notice the date this video was published. Case-in-point!
Damn! That was SPOT ON!!!
1 year later here we are, well done Ben!
You are the most relatable, down to earth, and level-headed UA-cam investor right now. Thanks for being a practical source for the everyday American. I needed this to keep me from panic selling.
Thank you, and thanks for watching!
"Immune to any narrative" is the best way to describe Ben Felix I've ever heard 😅
Bossman break down 👌🏼
It's an android, not a human being. :)
Exactly.
honestly it seems hella difficult to be coming out with such well-researched and organized content every other week
This is what expertise looks like.
Legend
Ben, I would like to have you declared "essential service" during this pandemic.
I'm open for business.
Well said
Alexis Tessier cringe
@@user-ug3rj4ij9j That's the joke.
Cringe comment from Tessier
Top-notch channel which lives up to its name. Haven't seen anything close to as well-documented and thorough as this on UA-cam.
Thanks Ben, great video as usual. You're really doing us all an enormous favor by going through all the research and synthesizing it for us in a clear and understandable way. Thanks to you, we can spend our time on hobbies, family, friends and other things instead of plowing through the 33 pages of "Negative Bubbles: What Happens After a Crash". Please keep it up!
Thanks Yoran! If you get bored of your other hobbies, the paper is worth a read!
Added to must read list. :)
You are the reason why I started to invest and still invested in a globally diversified portfolio. Your advice have really changed my investment behavior. Thanks Ben!
I swear these videos have a soothing effect and I'm not even worried about this drop.
Absolutely. Its true that emotional people don't do well at investing because we panic in the downturns, which is why we need someone like Ben to tell us the facts.
I think I don't need a finance advisor. But listening to your videos I can see the benefits of having one in these hard times - reassurance.
The simplest, most rational explanation anywhere. Well worth 11 minutes of my time. Thank you again!
Great words Ben. People echo the "this time is different" narrative during extreme market swings, both up and down. Clear and cool headed minds always prevail. Congrats in advance on 100K subscribers. I first checked in at around 4,000.
Had to rewatch this after the past three months. Crazy how the market soared so much over s small period of time after two months of turmoil.
Ben’s calm explanations are great to listen in during uncertain times
I am so glad to hear someone approaching this in this way. Narrative drives people not facts. We have blinded ourselves by rising intellect to a pedestal.
Helpfully clarifying just when I need it--thank you, Ben. As a literature prof I enjoyed your discussion of the psychological "narrative" that takes hold--we're all story-tellers, after all. We need to read beyond our current chapter, as you say, and keep reading the book.
I love how the podcast and the youtube channel always go hand in hand, great work as always!
While the market goes down, your channel goes up! About to hit 100k subs, keep it up!
“This is why you made a plan and now is the most important time to stick to it.” Well said. Thanks for the reminder.
Good discipline
This video is definitely a keeper! Something to play every 7-10 year recession. Keep up the great work.
Consistently your videos are short, meaty and to the point. A big thanks for the time you put into these!
Thank you for being a logical voice of reason!
Relevant when it was published, relevant in 2022 and relevant for time to come.
Informed, calm and far away from emotional. A great blend for a successful investment advisor. Your use of research data is the only way to convince a well informed investor. Well done. By far the best on UA-cam.
There is so much panic, doom and gloom online right now. Thank you for the rational reminder.
I was waiting for you to post a video on this. Breath of fresh air. Thanks.
I've must honestly say Ben, the delivery was clear and concise by providing historical prologue research with current data to see the picture of how the behavior in terms of epidemic events and maintain logically risk-appropriate portfolios when thinking long-term. Having an efficient plan. Nicely done!
Subbed, you make a lot of sense and I wish more people would listen to this.
I must say, you're very good at slowly but surely smashing my dream of making it big in the financial sector. I mean more and more I need to accept that stock markets seem to be relatively efficient. And I don't feel like the chances of me being the one that proves academia wrong about investors beating the factor risk adjusted expected returns by a statistically significant margin are in my favour.
I feel like there's no point in trying to find inefficiencies that persist, but that doesn't mean I won't try. And yes I know that this video is very random to comment it on.
I just want to say thank you for providing very detailed, comparatively easy to understand content (compared to the language those papers use) for free.
When there is blood in the streets ... YOU BUY, even if the blood is your own.
- Baron Rothschild said it like 5000 years ago and it's going to be the same this one.
The ACTUAL catalysts are different, not the effects.
Sounds about right
But buy what?
@@clarifyingquestions Ben might suggest index ETFs. I would too.
B.A.B.Y Investments 5000 years ago? Are yo sure lol
5000 years ago? The rothschilds were not around
How does this guy not have 1M subs?!
The One Thing that makes my panic-monkey want to press the sell button is watching those so called "news". Thank mr. Felix for reminding us yet again to keep our heads cool at stick with the plan.
It just so happened that I bought my very first index funds when the market were down 10% in this crisis. It's scary to see how volatile it all is as a first hand experience. But I've decided not to sell anything and just let it be.
Good on you! Statistically it is more likely to lose money timing the market as the legendary investor Peter Lynch once said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”
Don’t dump a big sum but continue to buy each month. DON’T CHECK THE PRICES! Just buy regularly and you shall obtain F.I.R.E.
@@mavioz I'm pretty sure he stated this in another video, where he just said that it really doesn't make a difference. But you're taking a risk at a later moment.
Most of the advice in this thread is, on a statistical and probability basis, correct. With that being said, I would like to share the information provided by Jay Hauer about when we enter a secular, or "generational," bear market. Quoting Jay:
"The reason secular bears are called “generational” bear markets is because it generally takes about a generation for everyone to forget the lessons of the prior secular bear. Once that happens, retail investors grow exceedingly complacent. And why wouldn’t they be? Stocks have always recovered relatively quickly from every bear market during THEIR time as investors. Most of them have never studied a very-long-term chart, and don’t realize that not all bear markets are buying opportunities."
"No one who started trading/investing after 1982 has ever seen a secular bear market. This is why you’re getting advice on this question such as 'Don’t sell in a crash!' 'Be sure to buy the whole way down!' 'Stocks always come back for the long haul!' This advice is spoken by people who have only lived through cyclical bears, in the context of the much larger secular bull market that began in 1982. And it's really, really dangerous advice. Imagine if you took this advice in 1968, and started buying as the market began tanking. If you “bought the whole way down,” you would be underwater until the 1990’s. I don’t know what sort of time horizon you have, but most people aren’t prepared to sit on losses for 20+ years. You could be dead by the time you break even."
Jay goes on to say, "My work suggests that the next bear market we experience will probably
still be a cyclical bear, so the advice you’re getting to “buy the dip” might work one more time. But I suspect that the bear which FOLLOWS that one (my preliminary time frame is 2025) will be a true secular bear."
I encourage you to read Jay's entire answer, not to fear monger, but to give you a balanced understanding of what has, could, and at some point again in the future, will happen when another secular bear market arrives. www.quora.com/What-should-I-do-during-a-stock-market-crash
@@PxFireblaze I'm pretty sure research shows that investing a lump sum is * statistically * advantageous. However, it might be a good idea to dollar cost average (on a relatively short period) for psychological reasons - it's akin of buying an insurance against the current situation: it will usually not be optimal, but you're trading off a statistically optimal move for your peace of mind.
Great Vid Ben!! Btw yall not only is Ben a great portfolio manager and UA-camr, he is one hell of a basketball player!!!
Benny Bunny Hops out here getting his numbers for real
I have said it before. I will say it again. Ben's presentations on various investing issues beat any college or university professor that I ever had. And I had a bunch of them at some really good business schools. He is just flat refreshing, in no small way because he focuses on facts and a rational presentation of them.
Fantastic video - a steady head Ben in turbulent times. Hope you and loved ones are safe and well.
You show tremendous intellectual humility. Your videos are very informative and well-researched. Thankyou.
Ben, you are unmistakably bright and capable...your videos always offer a thoughtful, well-reasoned, and informative perspective. Thank you for helping me to learn.
All stuff we already know but rarely see so eloquently put. Nice work on this one! 💯
Of all the videos on UA-cam, this one is the best on financial advice. Excellent!
I think there are many many more people who would do well with seeing this video.
Thanks for the consistently great videos and knowledge Ben!
25.05.2024, All Indexes S&P500, NASDAQ-100, DOW JONES recovered. NDX almost tripled after this crash. Just keep investing!
Immediately calm. Great video as always
This video aged very well :) Great advice, im super happy and proud to have stayed in market and added as well !
You are always the comforting voice of reason. I appreciate your videos immensely.
Just found this channel. Brilliant. You are like a steady hand at the wheel during a storm. Calming and reassuring. Many thanks Ben. Very interesting to see this video in retrospect. You were right, cos' the markets have bounced back as the pandemic threat has receded, and how. A great reminder to look at the facts and stick to your plan. I let emotion, ignorance and narrative from the media convince me to sell a lot of share funds as the markets crashed in 2008, and it was the worst financial decision of my life. I lost 10 years of previous growth and all subsequent gains when the markets recovered. I didn't make the same mistake last year. But won't next time be different? Lol!
Thank you
This week is a great time to rewatch this video. I am down nearly 10% over the last month, but guess what? That's fine! Keeping it invested because I'm holding these stocks for 20+ years.
Best no nonsense talk I love it
Thank you Ben. This is the best video I have seen in 3 weeks! I appreciate your fact-based information. More people need to listen to you to calm them down so they make rational decisions.
Best advice I’ve heard thus far, nice job Ben!!!!
Great video! Lots of data and history here. Bravo.👏
I was waiting for this video from you! Thanks for the high-quality content.
Well said Ben! You are the financial voice of reason in these uncertain times
This is the information and mindset that really allows people to make the biggest gains in the long run. Invest with money in a way that allows you to look at a decline in your portfolio without panicking. Believe in your investment decisions (do your research) and think about the timeframe of your investments. If you have an especially strong conviction related to a certain stock, think about throwing some extra money (without compromising your emergency savings) at it when people are the most worried about the economy. If you are invested in “luxury goods” like Tesla, remember that high earners likely have the ability to work remote. If you are invested in software as a service, this is their time to expand market share. If you are invested in travel or industries heavily impacted, this is the best time to see if they had underlying balance sheet issues. I think the people who watch this channel and really understand it will be extremely well off in the long run!
Great work Ben. Congrats on 100k.
Thanks for including all the references in addition to the great video 👍🏻
One of the best videos on this channel
Clear, concise, and great visuals. Thanks as always for the great content!
Best investing channel on UA-cam.
Thanks for ur great efforts.
Love u so much 💙
oh this is next level. well done
Thanks man. I’ve been steady and making good decisions but to watch this video helps a lot.
Thank you Ben. Great video at a perfect moment. I appreciate your efforts. Take care and all the best to you and your family.
Thank you Ben! You are a thinktank👍
Excellent video. Thank you for posting!
One of the best learning videos ever!
Amazing video as always Ben, much appreciated!
I was waiting for this. Liking and sharing. Great videos.
This aged exceptionally well - with the markets surging later on in 2020.
I’ve seen all the market crashes: The Stock Market Crash of 1987, The Dot.com Bust of 1999-2000, The "Great Recession" Stock Market Crash of 2008. We will recover as a nation and be just fine. Great video! #WallStreetBravado
I admire the financial independence of people, But you can live better if you work a little more. After watching this I think there are people out there, on the extreme, who plan to die early just to be able to retire early. To each their own but to me, retirement isn't just about not having to work, it's about having the freedom to do whatever you might reasonably want, such as travel, buying things, enjoying life, etc. I don't think I could retire with less than $3m in income-generating investments, maybe $2m at the very minimum. I plan to work until I'm at least 45
Nobody knows anything, you need to create your own process, manage risk and stick to the plan, through thick or thin while also continuously learning from mistakes and improving
@@ElizabethSarah-cl3sc Having an investment adviser is the best way to go about the market right now, especially for near-retirees, I've been in touch with a coach for a while now mostly cause I lack the depth knowledge and mental fortitude to deal with these recurring market conditions, I netted over $220K during this dip, that made it clear there's more to the market that we avg joes don't know
@@ScottBrown-b7o
Who’s the person guiding you
@@ScottBrown-b7o Thank you, I just checked her out and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Congrats on 100k subs ben!
always such great videos, thank you Ben!
it is video's like this that makes Ben different from the herd. Good work with the story telling style, you made something that is based on imperial data and analysis actually linked to emotions.
Stunning video, great job Ben!
"The stock market is a device for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient" Remember if you buy and hold over the long run, it is a winning game!
Unless you're 70 year old and a bear market destroy the RRSP portfolio you survive on.
void habit Lol well a 70 year old probably shouldn’t be in 100% equities unless they were prepared for something like this.
Nikkei 225: hold my stocks :))
Unless you’re Japanese
Well stocks took 25 years to recover after the crash in 1929. Let's hope this one isn't as bad.
Good sober voice in the midst of total panic. Greetings from Sweden!
Fantastic points - I have just subscribed !
Really, really great. Nothing new in particular for me, having also been a follower of behavioral economics for a while, but an incredibly concise summary of the multitude of human and economic factors at play.
Great explanations & presented beautifully. Thank you Ben!
I’ve been eagerly waiting for this video from Ben. As usual the most relevant and informative content out there.
Great video. I was keenly anticipating that you'd put out a video on the current issue. People often forget that the stock price is largely built upon expectations. For example, the strong expectation at the moment is that Q1 GDP growth will be slowed and Q2 will be negative (US) and my country (Aus). I have heard people saying that they will buy in after these periods except these facts will already be majority priced in and if results EXCEED expectations then they would miss out on excellent gains.
Thank you so much for a voice of reason in this chaos!
Very educational. Thanks Ben.
I loved your line, "the narrative may be different" because, as you said, each crash is different! Though they are all caused by different events, all crashes share one thing in common: a rebound. I loved your video, Ben. Thank you!
Thank you we needed this!!
"This is Time Different" - the 4 most expensive words to investing!
Congrats on the 100k
I started investing in januari. Timing couldn’t be worse... Although it hurts, i’ve started rebalancing and buying more stocks. 🤞
Same. Fucking tax season.
did you start with a lump sum? If you are doing monthly deposits this is probably the best start yiou could hope for. Sure starting two months later would have been better in hindsight, but you are getting some very serious discounts right now and likely for the months to come.
You spelled january in malay lol
Timing could have been worse, even if you invested a lump sum back in January: for example, let's say the crash happened next year and two years of savings/tax return would be affected. I know it's easy to say and harder to practice, but if you went with stocks, it should have been because you're here for the long run. You should never invest in risky assets money you'll need in short or medium term exactly because of what is happening right now. If you keep invested, you have a positive expected return, you just don't know when it will materialize. It could be the next year, 5 years or 10 years. And if you keep investing and stocks keep declining you will be to buying lower and lower... so not such a bad time to start investing at all.
Yes lump sum. But i talked my wife into putting in a little more cash 😇. If it drops to 50% i’m selling half of my bonds and buy stocks.
Always the man of the situation!
Excellent as always. Thank you!
Thanks to my own research enforced by your videos I’m sitting pretty with my portfolio. Not worrying at all as pullbacks like that are expected and calculated in.
Last Friday of this month I will buy more again continuing with my dollar cost averaging - business as usual. Only thing different is that I will rebalance REITs into VTI (what I planned for few months ago) to collect some capital losses for my tax returns next year. Having 100% trust in your plan is a blessing that alleviates all the anxiety from investing.
Thanks Ben, you are really changing people lives.
That was prescient . Well done Ben
Well done, Ben! Thanks for being a voice of reason.
March 20: I feel the time to sell was weeks or months ago, so at this point I’m riding it down to ride it back up. I have suspended contributions for the time being as I feel this is going to get significantly worse before it gets better. I’ve been waiting for the market to tank out for a while now so I’ve kept cash on the sidelines waiting for an opportunity. I didn’t expect anything like this. Will probably wait another month or so before starting to DCA that extra cash in. A vaccine is still a long way out, but hopefully we can find a more successful treatment before then. Good luck to all of you, in your health and wealth!
Yeah, wish I had sold in February when it recovered briefly. I under estimated this virus.
Right. When buffet got liquid I did the same. So glad i did. Folks losing their shirts now.🙊
@@newaveride3396 They're not losing anything, They're just missing out on the current sale.
@@CandaEH much better to purchase at the bottom while not suffering losses. Agreed?
@@newaveride3396 And what will the bottom be may I ask so I get my limit order ready?
Great video as always!
Ive been waiting for this video. As a young investor this is my first crash, it sucks, but as a long term investor i will be fine since i am properly diversified. Everyone has heard selling in a recession is bad but actually having the discipline to hold when everyone is losing their life savings is something different.
I have family members panicking and wanting to sell and hold their money in a bank. This video will help me help them.
Hi ben. It would be cool if you spoke about options on a future podcast or video. I thought of a decent idea that incorporated options in with an index / factor portfolio. I would love to hear your opinion on it. The strategy involves buying covered calls. Before you chalk it up to market timing / active management, hear me out.
Whenever your portfolio is in need of a rebalance from bonds to equities, you would write covered calls on some portion of the newly purchased equities. For example, if you had a $10 000 50 /50 portfolio, and equities went down, making your current asset allocation is 25/75, you would need to sell $2500 worth of bonds and buy $2500 worth of equities. Rather than just buying $2500 worth of equities, you would write a covered call with some of the equities you are about to buy (say $1250, but this is arbitrary). This means you will instantly collect the premium for selling the call. The expiration date doesn't matter too much with this strategy. The strike price, however, will be the price you were going to sell your equities at anyways once they go up. Isn't this timing the market? No, because once equities reach a certain price, you would need to sell some to rebalance anyways. This strategy isn't about market timing. This definitely sounds confusing, so let me outline the possibilities that could happen. For simplicity, let's say the equity ETF you hold is trading at $100. Let's also say you would rebalance if the price reached $130. Of course, this is arbitrary, but that's the nature of rebalancing. Some people rebalance based on time, and some do so off weights. So, the strike price of the covered call your writing will be $130, meaning you are on the hook to sell some number of shares at $130. Of course, this is a covered call, so you already purchased those shares at $100.
1. The price of equities goes down.
If the price of equities goes down, you will lose money, but this has nothing to do with the covered call. As long as you write the covered call on something you are okay with going long on, and holding for the long term, you won't be harmed. Of course, in this case, we are writing the covered call on the equity ETF you would be holding anyways. So, if the price drops, the option will not be exercised. This leaves you in the same position you would be in if you didn't sell the option, but now you have collected the premium, making you better off then just buying the ETF.
2. The price rises, but does not reach the strike price ($130).
If this happens, the option will not be exercised. Because of this, you will be in the exact same position as you would be if you just bought the ETF, but with the premium collected from writing the covered call. Again, you benefited because of the premium.
3. The price reaches and goes over $130, the option is exercised, and the shares are called away.
This is the scary one now. When you are the writer of an option, you DON'T want the option to be exercised. Normally this means losing money. Hear me out though. Also, for the sake of the example, let's pretend the ETF price is now trading at $150. Obviously this is a covered call, so you don't need to go out onto the open market and buy shares at $150, and then sell them at $130 to the person exercising the option. You bought the shares for $100, and now you would be selling those same shares (for a profit) at $130. Big deal your saying, that's how a covered call works. You are selling for a profit, but obviously, you could have sold for $150 on the open market. Your upside is limited, and there is no free lunch. While this is true, as an index investor, you would have rebalanced your portfolio during the ride up. If you didn't sell the option, and rebalanced and bought more equity ETF shares normally, chances are, you would have sold at some price under 150 anyways, to rebalance your portfolio. This isn't about betting that a stock will rise but stay below a set price (as most of the time selling covered calls are). I didn't do the exact math in this example, but if you rebalanced your portfolio according to weightings, there would be a price that you would sell at. In this example, I'm just using $130 as that price. If you calculated the price equities would need to reach for your portfolio weightings to be off by x amount, you would use that as the strike price. This means you would be selling at that price anyways. With options, you would be selling at that same price, but plus collecting the premium from writing the option.
I hope you understood what I tried to outline. In all three cases, you're actually better off writing the covered call then you would have been if you didn't. Hopefully you also see that this isn't a market timing strategy. Please respond if you have any questions about it. I would love to hear your thoughts!
Great video! Fast forward to Oct 2023 and nobody even seems to remember Covid anymore and people now think their assets will evaporate as a consequence of the geopolitical landscape. Like Bogle used to repeat: Just stay the course.