MID-YEAR Oscar Acting Predictions (June 2024)
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- Опубліковано 26 чер 2024
- Welcome to Fantasy Filmball with Matt & Dyl. Join two Oscar Enthusiasts as they break down the Academy Award race in terms of Fantasy Sports.
0:00 - Matt’s Best Actress
9:17 - Dyl’s Best Actor
17:04 - Matt’s Best Supporting Actor
24:17 - Dyl’s Best Supporting Actress
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I disagree with Dyl that Ariana has a much better trajectory than Selena to the Oscars. Both have Disney/nickelodeon baggages but Selena actually is a Golden Globe,Critic’s choice and SAG nominee and won the best actress Cannes ensemble recently. She could also be nominated for Emmys this year for Only Murders. I’m not fully sold on her getting nominated but out of the 2, I think she has a much better shot.
That's a very fair rebuttal. I love Only Murders and completely forgot Selena is in that. That's on me - D
that's what i said, ariana's only acting award is a kids choice award
32:28 Ariana Grande having more trajectory than Cannes Best Actress winner and Golden globe nominee Selena Gomez?
I remind you, the only acting award Ariana ever won was a kids choice award
Seriously who hired that guy?
His three daughters, both of you are very convinced Natasha Lyonne makes it into the top 5, being the sole contender from the film that premiered last year, and will be released in september, since Emilia Perez will be the priority regarding awards campaigning
The Piano Lesson having the second place
A cute prediction
i'd argue ariana is definitely more of a singer than an actress whereas selena is definitely a healthy balance of the two, if so more leaning towards actress as that's how she started out. a nom for selena would be incredible for her already skyrocketing career
selena is not a singer, she tried
I will be Amy Adams awards campaigner this year. However Mickey winning would also make me very happy
You haven’t seen Nightbitch
Mickey?
@@MrGoat-cd8lt Maddison
Matt i like your predictions
But take in consideration Mikey in Anora gives very much Alana Haim in Licorice Pizza
I've been excited (and nervous) about Nightbitch for 2 years. I love the book and am really hoping people suddenly giving it more attention and putting it and Amy Adams higher in their early predictions doesn't turn out to be super premature and wishful thinking. Btw, she turns into a dog, not werewolf. I also wouldn't classify it as body horror but I'm saying that because of my interpretation of the book. I'd be down with it going that direction to an extent, similar to The Company of Wolves and Ginger Snaps representing menses, but that may also be a lot to incorporate on top of book points and plot.
You are much more confident in Madison winning BAFTA than I am, Anora does not feel like the most BAFTA-leaning movie, Sean Baker movies are unapologetically American.
BAFTA Winners are annouced 2 days before oscar winners voting closed. I think we need to see what critics do this year + globes
I don't think that being American is much of a strike against films at BAFTA. Looking back at their lead acting winners, there have been a lot of Americans winning in very American films. Frances McDormand, Austin Butler (yes, the film was Australian, but Elvis is as American as it gets), Will Smith, Emma Stone (the first one), Casey Affleck, Leonardo DiCaprio. Anora is artful and has highbrow acclaim, which puts it in a good spot for BAFTA in my books. - M
I'm glad I'm not the only one predicting Mikey at #1
I know that Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths is to be distributed by Bleecker Street, but if it premieres at Venice in competition and Marianne Jean Baptiste wins the Volpi Cup for Best Actress, could that put her and the film in the race and possibly break Bleecker Street’s “bad track record” with getting nods?
If Jean-Baptiste wins the Volpi than I will certainly predict her for a nomination in spite of Bleecker Street! However, current rumors seem to be hinting that Hard Truths will not be going to Venice. We'll see if that's true when the lineup drops in July, but at the moment, things aren't looking great for the film. - M
So excited and the season is really just getting started ✨🫶
Love your passion, but frankly TMI !!!! 🙉
I haven’t seen this movie but based on what people have said about it that have I can see June Squibb for Thelma get a nomination.
What about Jesse Plemons on Civil War?
Love the exception you give for the bigger movie prevailing in the acting race is the perfect example of why Amy Adam's will have the edge of Mikey Madison. If she's good and Nightbitch isn't a trainwreck, Adam's is getting the Brendan Frasier treatment. There's no way she wouldn't. EVERYBODY loves her and EVERYBODY is desperate for her to win her Oscar.
I could just as easily turn around and say Glenn Close losing to a relative unknown in 2018 proves that Amy Adams won't win. It's impossible to cherry pick one win and use it to say that something will or will not happen, because every win is disproven by the exact case of another. And the thing with Butler v Fraser is that in the end, Elvis actually wasn't all that loved, with it losing every single craft category it was expected to take. The difference here is that I'm currently expecting Anora to be a huge winner, and if it meets my expectations, Madison has the edge. If Anora isn't the juggernaut I expect it to be, Adams can win on her narrative. - M
In supporting categories you don't need alot of screentime to win or get nominated. I hope that Danielle Deadyler get nominated for The Piano Lesson in supporting actress
That is not true. You typically do need it, especially with how much they like nominating co-leads in supporting.
Unless you are Judi Dench.
All in on Amy Adams. I would hate a newcomer like Madison beating Adams after all the nominations.
Tony my guy my dude my friend! I thought you were on the "narrative shouldn't win Oscars" train. Last year with Emma Stone v Lily Gladstone I feel like I remember you saying that it should just be about the performance, not about any of the other stuff.
I'm going to say the same with Adams v Madison v Gaga v whoever else is contending. To me, it doesn't matter how many nominations someone has, I just want to see my favorite performance win. If Adams has my favorite performance, it's going to be nice to see her win after two decades of outstanding performances, but if someone else has a better performance, I'd prefer to see them win. - M
@@fantasyfilmball M- I appreciate the guy dude friend thing :) Fair enough. My only comeback is that I have not seen any of the performances yet so I am picking Amy Adams because I am an Amy Adams fan. However, if I do not like Adams' performance when the time comes, I will get off of the train similar to Carey Mulligan last year when I did not like her performance/Maestro. Keep up the good work my guy my dude my friend!
This is actually a weak year for Best Actress, compared to 2024. Last year any of the 5 nominated actresses would be a strong frontrunner to win this year. Even Margot Robbie would be a strong contender..Mickey's career would benefit more from a nomination than a victory, as young and relatively unknown actresses hitting their career best so early-on tend to fade way quickly. Sight unseen, I predict Marianne Jean Baptiste will dominate, as she is older, Black, ferociously talented, and many voters still remember her nominated performance in Secrets & Lies. Colman Domingo is the clear Best Actor frontrunner. Predicting Phoenix and Gaga to underperform, as he's already won for playing the same character, and she's neither overdue for a win or playing a character within the genre that the academy tends to reward actresses.
I don't think people should get acting awards for playing themselves.
This goes not just for those who are literally doing that, but also for actors who are constantly playing variants of the same role, which is also very similar to themselves in real life.
I disagree purely because I think there is a level of vulnerability that is difficult to reach in this. In my view, the purpose of acting is not to transform into someone else, or to create a new persona, but to find the parts of yourself in the character and use them. That's why casting is so important - it can bring us true authenticity. Playing yourself on camera is way harder than it seems, it requires a level of self-awareness that is very hard to learn.
But if we're talking Ryan Reynolds, or Dwayne Johnson, or Kevin Hart playing every role in exactly the same way, then yeah, that's not good acting. Acting is finding authenticity, and I feel no authenticity from those guys. They're all playing a character, and it's the same character every time.
But people drop this complaint on George Clooney all the time, and I strongly disagree, I think he's one of our great actors. Sure, he's not changing his voice or his persona all that often, but he always finds deeply authentic emotion, which makes every performance special. - M
You can tell this guy is a swiftie bc of his hate comments on Gaga, like cmon, u wouldn't say the same for a man.
Stop spoiling the movies you’ve seen
To be clear - nothing I've said is more than what could possibly be shown in trailers. That's my metric for a spoiler.