Making Smarter Decisions & Why Great Investors Are Great Quitters w/ Annie Duke (TIP623)
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- Опубліковано 2 чер 2024
- Kyle Grieve chats with Annie Duke about quitting, decision-making, and investing. They discuss the importance of base rates, using kill criteria, and dissociating ourselves from our cherished ideas. The conversation also covers using a quitting coach to let go of things we hold onto for too long and more.
Annie Duke is an accomplished decision-making expert, author, and speaker. She has won over $4 million in tournament poker and has won the World Series of Poker and other prestigious poker events. Annie completed her Ph.D. in Cognitive Psychology from UPenn in 2023 and co-founded The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit organization that empowers students through decision-making skills education.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:00:47 - Annie's own story of quitting and how it got here to where she is today
00:16:10 - Why expected value is so crucial for investors to manage risk best
00:21:03 - The importance of understanding base rates and how we can use it to help us best understand the expected values of our investments
00:26:33 - How we can reframe our analysis of a business to close feedback loops on long-term investments
00:43:13 - How we can get 'transfer' from one skill to another far away skill (e.g., chess to investing)
00:49:26 - How we can use kill criteria in our investing decision-making to improve our abilities to quit a losing investment
00:56:32 - How we can disassociate ourselves from our investments to reduce the impacts of the endowment effects
01:03:12 - How to engineer your decision-making to give yourself an outside view
01:08:09 - How to set up a quitting coach by permitting them to disagree with you
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▶️ RELATED EPISODES:
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📖 BOOKS MENTIONED:
- Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away by Annie Duke: amzn.to/43RdTpE
- Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke: amzn.to/49vueBG
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This interview was one of my favourites by far. I love love love Annie and her work. I love studying game theory, heuristics, and human judgement (or misjudgement as Munger called it). Annie is one of my heroes, along with Taleb. Thank you for bringing her on this show and for the awesome questions ❤
Thank you so much for the kind words! ♥
She's so cool!
Glad you liked the episode! 😎
Really cool stuff and not overly long as well;-)
Much appreciated! 🙏
I really like Annie Dukes approach to gambling and investing. However in investing in stocks you don't have the probabilities of your bets like in gambling games. And you also get easily fooled by random data in investing.
Nicely, this is not a rewind or a simple update of the 2022 RWH015 interview but a new stuff. Good Job. Thank you. BTW where is William?
Thanks for watching! This episode is under 'We Study Billionaires', which is hosted by Kyle, Clay, or Stig. William is the host of 'Richer, Wiser, Happier'. Hope this helps! 🙌
@@WeStudyBillionaires Right, and under the same channel. I have already checked that William is here every month. So… the next weekend 🙂
What is...expected value? And edge? Thx
If you want a very readable intro to concepts like edge, expected value, risk and Kelly criterion, I highly recommend "Fortune's Formula" by William Poundstone. Much better, quite frankly, than this interview. The book weaves together multiple historical threads that lead to today's quant investing and behavioral finance. Features giants like Claude Shannon, Ed Thorp and John Kelly.
Thanks, but a quick definition will be useful
Da