Is Global Warming Speeding Up?
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- Опубліковано 26 вер 2024
- Thanks to climate change, 2023 has shattered heat records, and 2024 is continuing where last year left off. With this devastating heat driving extreme weather - from heatwaves to downpours to wildfires - across the globe, scientists are increasingly asking if global warming could be accelerating. So what does the evidence show? Is the heating up of our planet speeding up? If so, what does this climate change mean for our future? And can we still hit the brakes and halt global warming?
Huge thanks to scientist Andrew Dessler for his feedback! Follow him here:
/ andrewdessler
Support ClimateAdam on patreon: / climateadam
#ClimateChange #climatecrisis
twitter: / climateadam
instagram: / climate_adam
==MORE INFO==
On acceleration predicted by models vs Hansen vs reality:
www.realclimat...
www.carbonbrie...
Comment on the weirdness of recent temperatures:
www.nature.com...
Further discussion of “the surge”
www.theclimate...
Is it the volcano
www.theclimate...
Further discussion of 2023’s warming:
www.theclimate...
Recent temperatures:
www.euronews.c...
eu.usatoday.co...
climate.copern...
www.axios.com/...
Discussion of accelerating temperature
www.washington...
Zeke Hausfather comment www.nytimes.co...
Doubt over whether acceleration is underway:
michaelmann.ne...
Feb beating March records / 1764254749925204257
Accelerating heat content www.nature.com...
Old (2018) discussion on possibility of acceleration: www.nature.com...
Climate models compared to ongoing warming:
www.carbonbrie...
==CREDITS==
Temperature data: IPCC AR6 mean combined with HadCRUT's values for the last couple of years
Historical warming trend and projections from Nasa Goddard
Wildfire footage Henderson Hillls
El Nino clip from NOAAEco farming video from World Economic Forum and Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)
Waorani people from UN Human Rights
Massive thanks to all the patrons who made this video possible! And thanks to scientist Andrew Dessler for his feedback! Follow him here: twitter.com/AndrewDessler
also check out this excellent article on the topic from Zeke Hausfather: www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-why-the-recent-acceleration-in-global-warming-is-what-scientists-expect
March 2024 was the warmest on record according to ERA5 Reanalysis. This is the 10th consecutive month that the Earth has set a new record!
I must say 😊 cute Adam
I see jordan peterson. He don't believe climate changer 😊
When the ice melts off, where will the thermal Energy go, 334j/g to phase change ice, where oh where will that 334j/g go and how much faster will things heat up, then add in the albedo shift to the equation
Question, what is the equilibrium temperature for the average global temperature at 420ppm CO2 or AGGI at 585ppm,
Equilibrium point for the average global temperature for 280ppm was 15c
Equilibrium point for the average global temperature for 180ppm (iceage maximum) was 7c
A 100ppm change in CO2 levels caused the average global temperature to change by 8c
8c/100ppm or 1c/12ppm, global thermostat setting of 1c/12ppm CO2
420ppm - 280ppm = 140ppm difference ÷ 1c/12ppm = 11.75c rise above 280ppm baseline
news flash: graphs of EVERY KIND do NOT predict the future. as an oxford scientist, you actually know this, and are lying to the world on youtube
In India, we already have a heatwave alert. I don't even have a car and try to keep my carbon footprint low, but guess whose migraines have worsened due to heat? :( Feels hopeless...
I hope you are feeling better soon.
And it's hard to get access to drinkable water which makes it even worse we need a society that works based on the needs of poor and working people not authoritarian dictators and the one percent
@@plantbasedsenior4240 I am. Thank you. :)
@@morphingfaces Bangalore, typically referred as the Silicon Valley of India, facing terrible water crisis. The city is a concrete jungle. General elections are starting soon, and I really hope to see something better this time. Will try to contribute too. Let's see... Fingers crossed.
lmao.
I think we’re about to find out just how resilient global agriculture is to chaotic weather patterns.
Middle of the century. It's always been the middle of the century
Quick answer to how resilient global agriculture is is this. It's not. Better start stocking up now if you can.
@@johncurtis920 100% Famine rides, its easy to deal with so long as you acknowledge our entire food generation and distribution plan is as lame as boomers
In some places, not others. I think it is likely the FAO will be recording a net loss in global food production for the past 9 months, and the same for the 9 months ahead.
@@mikeharrington5593 Yes, we'll have regional issues here & there, but global ag faces many long-term challenges.
Climate change, yes, & the lowering water tables, soil compaction, & extreme weather that comes with it. But also we have growing global nutrient depletion & soil erosion from overly intense farming. And we have increasing habitat destruction to make room for more agriculture which thins the numbers of pollinators. And because of many of these other factors, cattle go underfed or slaughtered early which pressures the farmers to expand their land & exacerbate the problem. We also see the increased planting of ecologically nasty cash crops or deployment of spectacularly wide-ranging weed & pest control. And that's to say nothing of the fragility of our transportation infrastructure which mostly operates on a knife's edge margin & 'just in time' model as many found out during covid.
The challenges that face our global system of agriculture are a hydra, one that slowly grows in size each year.
The Keeling Curve is now showing around 426 ppm C02. A year ago it was 422ppm. No sign at all that we are reducing our C02 output.
note that (because CO2 fills up in the atmosphere like water filling up a glass) reducing output doesn't mean atmospheric concentrations halt, or decrease. it means they start to increase more slowly.
It is increasing. The Arabs and Russians, The Germans and the USA have already told the world that they want to burn everything they have. And sometimes even which they currently do not have.
I personally see 650-700ppm in 2100 or about 5-6 degrees globally.
@@ClimateAdamI think you mean "increase" more slowly.
yeah, even stopping emission of CO2 today (which would never work, as long as animals exhale CO2), would just leave the atmosphere at a very unhealthy level of 426ppm :/
it would take *centuries* for nature to reduce this level back to below 300ppm (where it starts to become acceptable again), even if humankind went extinct today. I could even take a full millennium.
So, time is not on our side, unfortunately :/
Let me put it straight: we reached a stage where cleaning the atmosphere will make it worse. Well done humanity..
thats why we need to do solar geoengineering. and thats that. we have no choice.
Not really that’s not true
Look at the old fuel that they used to use in the shipping industry that was outlawed in 2020 that was stopping the radiation from the sun which is now turning the world's oceans into a hot tub which is killing the Coral Reefs which is the bottom of the food chain... 😐
I think it is very likely that the removal of Sulphur dioxide from shipping fuel was an inadvertent catalyst to the warming jump.
Even as a layman, looking at the data it seems to me that humanity had its foot on the climate break without realizing it.
When we removed our foot from the break (cleaning up shipping fuel), the climate snapped forward to the level of damage that already existed in our atmosphere, but we had helped to mask that damage unintentionally through the SO2 in the shipping fuel.
Adding SO2 back in would only delay the inevitable and wouldn't reverse the damage. It would be no different than sweeping the dirt under the rug.
As the planet rockets past tipping points, it seems clear to me that our situation is grave. Huge temperature swings from high to low, extreme storms, too much rain, not enough rain, all point to one thing...agriculture collapse. Those of us who garden can already see the weather whiplashing is having a massive impact on crop yields. Plants like stability and our emerging climate is anything but stable. I don't think people realize how interconnected everything is with climate - like a house of cards.
I'm all for constructive dialogue, but I will no longer waste my time debating whether it is happening. I have eyes, and in my 47 years on this world I have seen vast changes in climate conditions, and those changes are most defiantly accelerating.
Landscapegardener here. It's completely out of control. In my 15 years as gardener in Austria I saw insects from the Mediterranean, plants from the Mediterranean and plants flowering a month sooner now than 2008. I have no idea where this is going but forests in Austria will change completely until 2100.
@@pokemon42jodeldodel97 Just as someone who pays attention to nature a lot, the change is stark in plants and insects especially, when I moved into this building a decade ago there would be snowdrops and bluebells all along the wall up until mid April, now where it gets direct sunlight in spring they're being replaced by other plants that didn't show up until late spring when I first moved here, there were daffodils out in December this year, potatoes sprouting in my garden in mid winter, I saw damselflies and dragonflies out in March.
@@pokemon42jodeldodel97 "I have no idea where this is going but forests in Austria will change completely until 2100." Since when do Fichten, Tannen and Ulmen live 80 years in this type of climate?
anyone who refuses to acknowledge the crisis, is bad faith and should be damned
@@Pan_Fryer "and should be damned" Hell and damnation?
We know how that works.
Nobody expects the spanish inquisition...
Just wrote a paper on deforestation in the tropics. Deforestation and more frequent wildfire events globally create a positive feedback loop that could be accelerating climate change. Reduction in natural sequestration ability has to have an impact on how fast we are heating. I enjoy the videos you make. I am an environmental scientist living in Colorado.
A simple but unpopular large step towards controlling the climate would be a world wide limit on automobile horsepower to 60 hp. The world got through the first half of the 20th century with vehicles of about this power. They are not as much fun to drive but they will get the job done but a bit slower. In recent years the hp has increased by leaps and bounds. Many vehicles now have 300 hp, what was once a significant muscle car. The reduction in fuel use for manufacturing and operating would be very significant.
During the pandemic the number of cars on the road dropped drastically and it did not have an effect on the climate, planes and semi's cause more damage to the environment then cars, if government was concerned then all city, states and governments would already be driving electric vehicles. This is going to hurt American's and help automobile manufacturers, why do you think they like Biden?
Thank you for not selling products on your channel. I hate watching a video and seeing an ad for products that are not related or actually contribute to climate change.
Thank you for your video.
a lot of great channels do sell stuff. I just don't want to!
he's selling a product: climate propaganda. he's lying through his teeth throughout the entire video.
@@RobertMJohnsonand you can tell this from your extensive study of the climate data? Or just inspection of Adams teeth?
@@treescape7please cite, precisely, my c.v.
Don't lie. Everyone's merch is pure BS.
Scientists are still not sure how the extreme megadrought summer of 1540 in Europe could happen. There was an 11-month period of little rain across Europe in 1540. There is a 20% chance that this summer was hotter than the summer of 2003 in Europe. Many forests went up in flames. In Germany, there were reports of cracks in the ground so big that people could stick their legs inside them. Multiple rivers and lakes dried up. Over half a million people died from the heat and famine. It truly was a horrific disaster. What confuses scientists is that this took place during the Little Ice Age, a period when Earth overall was much cooler than today. Sometimes terrible natural disasters can still happen regardless of Earth's global temperature. It is a bit terrifying to know that such an extreme summer could happen even when the planet was significantly cooler than it is now. A scary thought is wondering what would happen if the same jet stream pattern that caused the 1540 disaster happened today.
No it’s just oil companies Polluting our planet
Hi from Austria. It's quite possible that we will get 30degrees on Monday. In April. That's just crazy.
We'll have 28 in northern Switzerland this weekend. The mean high temperature for April here is 15 degrees. This is fine :)
25c in northern Italy
We had 30 on 29.3. in Burgenland. Not officially of course but in our local micro climate we sometimes have significantly different temps.
everyone i know says we're a month early this year. february was like march, march like april and now in april it's like may. a wahnsinn.
@@tru7hhimself That seems fitting, as Adam said, in some countries, februari temps broke March record highs.
for much more on this topic (as well as the links in the description) do check out this excellent write up by Zeke Hausfather:
www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-why-the-recent-acceleration-in-global-warming-is-what-scientists-expect/?Daily+Briefing+05+04+2024
Sure as hell feels like it up here in Zermatt. Watching the glaciers go from melting to disintegrating over the last 24 years (big diff from the 80s - 90s)
right. if the weather and climate don't fit your cushy lifestyle, it MUST BE anthropogenic
@@RobertMJohnson Wow. That was an extremely tangential rant.
Zumatt ? Ever done a pod cast on the state of your climate?
@@RobertMJohnsonyes 90% anthropogenic human caused. Earth is rapidly warming up at a rate that has not experienced since the last three volcanic CO2 3 greenhouse gas mass extinction events. Those events occurred between 240 million years ago and 55 million years ago. Humans are emitting at least 37 billion tons carbon dioxide per year and CO2 stays in the atmosphere between 300 years and 1200 years. So yes this is a global emergency if you go on UA-cam and type in Red Alert for Humanity watch that video
To give some missing details:
The IMO decided that from 2020 onwards the sulfur content of marine Diesel and other ship fuels is limited to 0.5%. The limit used to be at 3.5% before that.
As the majority of planet earth is covered by oceans taking away such a lot of a cooling blanket makes a huge difference.
According to James Hansen, one cause for the acceleration in warming is that in 2020, regulations introduced by the IMO imposed strict limits on the sulfur content of marine fuels. The new rules lowered the maximum percentage of sulfur from 3.5% to 0.5% for all ships operating worldwide. The reduction of sulfur in shipping fuel has seen a 1 watt per square meter increase in solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface. This increase in solar radiation reaching the surface is equivalent to an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere from 420 to 520 vpm (volumes per million).
Could be Honga Tonga +10% of water Vapor. No worry at this stage.
James Hansen.. oh geez. 😂
@@cd3949 Who are you? James Hansen was from 1981 to 2013 the director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, a part of the Goddard Space Flight Center. And now he does research at Columbia University.
@@MotokoOgawa james Hansen is an activist. I can give you on my side Nobel price who says the exact opposite. Unfortunately, you have to work to get « an » opinion on the subject. Can’t trust much both side.
Too much politics and passion.
@@Vincent-ct7ik Can you tell me what is wrong with a scientist being an activist when we are in a global climate emergency? Or, are you denying a global climate emergency? If you are, don't bother replying.
Maybe you are getting there, but Hanson, et al, told us to expect this accelerating heating.
You did a good job bringing it all together.
Your comment on the differences between +1C _> +1.5C -> +2C rather glosses over the fact that +0.5C -> +1C was that one that was relatively benign and +1.5C is already catastrophic (just taking time to actually deliver since we have so much ice buffering the impact as it melts)
I hope for +8°C, +1.5°C is still too cold, I don't want to freeze anymore, I want warm temperatures.😅
El Nino, shipping fumes and a moisture spewing volcano combined make for a pretty potent greenhouse kick. Let's hope things will return to being regular apocalyptic in the years to come.
La Ninas and El Ninos cpretty much cancel each other out, except for the long-term trend, which is warming. El Ninos are growing stronger, La Ninas weaker. The trend is global warming.
Not too fast please; I'm enjoying my old age.
I just turned 25, I'm terrified. Just trying to live in the moment.
@@EllieMae99 (That, and there's no reason to live beyond the age of 40, what with the monogamy-age fascism complex to begin with.)
@@EllieMae99 the world couldve done something 30 years ago. now the people who ruin our planet and lives build bunkers with no conscious. its weak, people are going to be in for a bad time....
South and Southeast Asian suffer the heatwave 😢 Global warming is happening and we are scared maybe next year is more hotter
Every year more hotter. It’s unstoppable. Google wet bulb temps and stay safe.
This video makes me thirsty for climate crisis kool-aid.
Maybe this time it will come from the cult of UFC fighter Jon, or artists Catherine Zeta, James Earl, Quincy, Tom, or Professor Indiana.
“Areas in Europe beat their March temperature records…in February!” Yep, pretty much what we experienced in our part of the California mountains this year.
In Canada I harvested in our community garden kale and cabbage in February, but we also has record highs and lows in the month.
How do we finally simplify the discussion and present the problem of climate change?
The truth is, the vague term "climate change" does us no favors at all; none. We need to get away from those words once and for all. Let's call it what it is: Global warming (or global heating).
2nd, science and government need to determine what is the most effective way to present, in the simplest and most universally understandable terms, the *CAUSE* of global heating.
Well, thankfully, there is a solution for that too; a solution that is not utilized *nearly* enough...
Consider Earth a living organism. Like our own physical bodies, temperature is key. In order for us to be well, we must maitain an internal, average temperature of 98.6. That temperature is universal. Everyone survives by the same rule.
And temperature has everything to do with energy; energy going in and energy going out.
If you cover yourself in a black wool blanket on a hot, sunny day, eventually you're gonna die. And it's not because there was too much energy going in; it's because there's not enough energy going *out*!
Earth maintains what is called an "energy budget". Energy (heat radiation) balance is required to maintain health and a relatively stable climate. We desperately need to talk about that, a lot; about Earth's energy budget, all the time, because the budget balance is out of whack. And human activity is the cause. Too much man-made gas is trapping too much heat when it *should* be escaping into space. That's the problem in a nutshell, a problem that has an understandable and manageable solution.
"Global warming" is a *_much_* better term than "climate change" since it is more to the point as it tells us in *_which direction_* the climate is changing and that the change is *_global_* - at least on average although there may be some local exceptions.
"PHD from Oxford" (who cares, degrees don't validate intelligence in 2024) then goes on to say "quite possibly.. maybe" when talking about climate change speeding up.. Do you actually care about climate change or is this just your skit that's working for you?
03:39 - "We don't know why these months have been jaw droppingly hot" "We also don't know if it could just be some temporary blip"
Wrong, we do know. I get the feeling you're a false optimist.
04:03 - "right now we just don't have enough evidence"
Wtf is this guy smoking?
05:00 - "You can see it's not a smooth curve"
That's because you took the data from 1970 and not the 1850 baseline.
Seriously..?
10:10 delusional.. yea this is just your skit.
James, I know you've built an ego out of humanity's imminent extinction, but it might be a good idea to take a step back and reanalyze everything.
Let's say we don't know the first thing about climate change. What sources should we look at first? Which perspectives can we compare?
@@General12th "I know you've built an ego out of humanity's imminent extinction" What a pathetic attempt at an insult. You think I'm going to respond seriously to such a condescending comment?
So I have been a gardener since I was about six years old. Lol the old woman next-door would pay me and teach me to help weed and work in her garden. For years, I kept this relationship and I actually lived off the land while living in a major city for over a decade. Collecting wild materials from the scrub forests around the edge of the city and weaving baskets and turning them into Wildcraft furniture. The thing about having been connected to the land for so many decades every season outside observing plants and trees and insects, etc. Is that I could see the changes happening decades ago. And yes, it is warming faster than telling us. Than they imagined and I told everyone this was going to happen. But not only did I tell people this was going to happen. I’ve started to prepare for it. The future is going to be all about problem-solving and adaptability. I figured out how to make an organic suntan lotion for my plants. How to prepare them and sustain them during Flash, drought and extreme heat. And I even started planting fruit trees and other various edibles that are several zones higher than our actual grow zone. And at winter time, I simply baby them cover them. Because I anticipate the climate warming so quickly. That I don’t want to be left without fruits. So I’ve started planting tropical fruits from South America and Australia. Though technically, we are not, that warm. And so far they’ve survived three winters in a row! You need to learn how to grow. And you need to learn the skills of adaptation.
But are you prepared for the barbarians hordes who will come to steal your food when the agricultural system collapses?
people think that 2 degrees warming is not a lot unless they realize eventually that it's the average including day and night
Wow. I wish I had a Ph.D. from a fancy university. I got my Ph.D. out of a fucking cereal box.
Huh. I dropped out of college.
Thanks for another great video Adam. I like all of your videos - good information is so important.
ah comments like this mean so much to me, thank you
Very informative - thanks man!
I have been following climate science since the early 90's. Back then scientists warned that we are increasing the average temperature of the planet. They warned us if the temperature keeps increasing at some point global climate systems would collapse otherwise called 'tipping points". A group of government paid scientists (IPCC) suggested that if the increase was above or around 1.5 degrees Celsius (pre industrial time), climate change would begin. The Arctic is warming at a faster rate then anywhere else and has enormous amounts of Carbon stored under glaciers and permafrost in the form of CO2 and methane. I believe it is probable that we have warmed the world enough (by burning fossil fuels for energy) to begin melting enough ice to free up that carbon to the atmosphere. I hope I am wrong!
This is actually already happening
In the 70s, "scientists" told us we were entering a new ice age. In the 90s, the glaciers would melt and coastal regions of the US would be covered in water. Now, we have "climate change," so the "scientists" can point to any change in the weather as proof of ---something. There is no science. It is just cherry-picking numbers and a convenient span of time to make your favorite trend a looming disaster.
This seems unbelievable. . . Good for you.
Adam, I like what you're doing! Can you also when summarizing the consequences, name food production collapse? If a 50% decline or more by 2100, people will understand that will hugely affect everybody.
absolutely making a mental note to bring that up more often - the importance of impacts to food production can't be overstated!
I guess since we are wasting a lot of food in Western countries, we could hope for more efficient use or even less obesity. I can only dream though.
Here are some facts- World food production has been increasing for about 50 years. And has increased every year in recent years in spite of the false predictions of climate alarmists. The planet is 15% greener than it was 25 years ago with much of the increase taking place in areas formerly to arid for plant growth. The reason for the significant increase of greening is due to the increase of C02 in the atmosphere. Also the increase of C02 is part of the reason food production has increased. C02 is essential to all plant growth. What no one wants to hear is that reducing C02 in the atmosphere actually could cause a food production collapse!
@@ClimateAdamre: including more on food supply / the enroads climate solutions simulator has "impact graphs" which would be very useful to use to demonstrate crop loss, species loss, and human heat deaths. I can show you if you'd like. climate Agents 3704 YT channel
@@haysjack6818By the 'increase' in greening, I'm supposing that you refer to all those NASA pictures over China.
Well, those trees are rapidly going, as China fells them to be replaced with agricultural fields again. They also have this strange plan to introduce 1.2 billion rabbits into the rest of the desert, because they think that a rabbit plague turns sand dunes into happy meadows, trickling streams and woodlands.
Australians know better.
...Oh, by the way, you should also know that some hill and mountainsides in China have been painted green (yes, with actual paint), to give sponsors the impression they've been planted from a distance.
If you're talking about other countries greening up. No, they're not. At least not as much as they 'seem' from a satellite photo.
Some deserts might temporarily green seasonally or when unnatural floods devastate the regions, afterwards allowing buried dormant weed seeds to grow.
But generally, areas that 'are' greener have been artificially planted, and those trees are still small enough to be of little or no consequence.
(It takes an average of 15 years for a newly planted tree to grow sufficiently to offset the carbon released during its production. Since most trees during the recent 'rash' of planting schemes are nowhere near 15 years old yet, we can be quite sure that the majority of CO2 released during production is still in the atmosphere).
Satellite pictures are very misleading and will just as easily show plains of grass as green as it does trees. A planet covered in grass is no solution to the planet's climate problems (see recent videos on storms in China as evidence).
Also, an increase in CO2 in the atmosphere does 'not' benefit plants growing out of doors.
In a greenhouse - yes. Indeed, CO2 has been pumped deliberately into greenhouses to 'make plants grow faster and taller.'
However, I (as well as many others involved in the horticultural industry) have our doubts about the detrimental effect CO2 filled greenhouses has on the nutritional value of that food.
Outside, plants growing in higher concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere 'do' grow faster and taller - but also lusher and weaker. They are subject to more storm, flood and hail damage. They suffer more in extreme heat. They are weaker against attack from pests and diseases.
You must have heard of the various pests/pathogens sweeping across continents, killing large numbers of plants like olive trees, bananas, oranges, chestnuts, oaks, ash, pines, hemlocks, etc.
People have been introducing plants from one country to another for many millennia. About 30 millennia. We haven't experience many problems with this practice until around the middle of the last century, when CO2 levels were just nudging upwards. That coincides with the time that an increasing number of plants fell foul of an increasing number of pests and diseases, which spread faster and much further afield under warmer, moister, more comfortable conditions (think locust attacks spreading further through Russia).
Where do these diseases come from? The untouched forests that used to separate lands so effectively, the spread and distribution of contagions limited by species variety in forests, cold seasons, dry seasons.
Scary times.
For sure. But we can still act to minimise the scariness for the future!
You can say that again @@ClimateAdam
Only if you believe the hype.
I don’t know about hype. I do know that we didn’t have winter as we know it in Ontario. Certainly no igloo’s (joke)Because although we had snowfalls, it always melted. That’s a long way first for me, and I’m not young. I don’t spend a lot of time worrying. But this is darn disconcerting. Deeply unnerving.
@@ClimateAdamHome made psychology is really out of place here.
As if asking me on the matter of climate .... :)
Hello Adam, thanks for your time making these vids! Would you be able to make a video on the possible collapse of the "AMOC" stream I just recently learned about. It was said that this could actually cause cold and even very cold temperatures for certain parts of Europe in the future.
Paul Beckwith has done a number of videos on it if you would like to look there in the meantime.
What are your thoughts on the melting Permafrost due to current bla am temperature, and the additional release of greenhouse gasses? I recently watched a NOVA program that featured several climate scientists in Russia, Northern Canada and Alaska that specifically brought up the release of Methane that is far more of a potential accelerating variable with increasing global temperature. They even suggested that Methane could push it past the tipping point. Thoughts? Maybe a video on that topic?
There's also the release of methane from ever increasing extraction of said methane, especially in the US. The amount of leakage is just starting to be understood and a few organizations recently launched satellites specifically made to measure these leaks. In the US we are now looking at increasing production for at least the next decade I believe. Much of which has already received permits.
@@jeezy0025got to make that profit. Capitalism has destroyed democracy and well on its way to destroying the planet.
all the feedback loops will contribute to speed up and yes, the speed will be exponential, it's certainly not linear
Faster or slower, the direction is obvious. Continued heating with it’s associated issues.
Absolutely - even if we're not seeing a clear acceleration (yet) things are unambiguously still heating up.
You are explaining like your wobbly line. It doesn’t help when politicians need convincing there is a problem.
Kinda shocked you didnt mention the energy imbalance
Thanks Adam. One point I think you forgot to mention is that our use of fossil fuels is still increasing, and at an alarming rate. This is in line with population growth which is set to increase by 2 billion to 9.2 billion over the next 30 years, and peaking in the 2080s at around 10.5 billion. Accelerating population growth using more energy equals accelerating global warming, and you don't need a PhD to work that one out. And as you say, the effects of the increase get exponentially worse too the further up the temperature ladder you climb. The climate pessimists of yesteryear have become the optimists of their time. and the rightwing elites who have always ruled over us now have the power to trick the masses into thinking the whole thing's a woke hoax, which is why governments are now beginning to row back on all their previous climate pledges in inverse proportion to the mounting evidence. No wonder people are gluing themselves to motorways! And of course those same governments are clamping down on such peaceful protesters by locking them up for years...
People will literally do NOTHING to stop global warming and then wonder "wHy iS sUmMeR so HoT????"
Wouldn't the most immediate and noticeable consequence of reduced aerosol emissions be changes in precipitation? Essentially, we are abruptly stopping cloud seeding. That would also have a bigger impact on agriculture and forest fires (which we had a lot of in Canada in 2023) than a small year over year increase in temperature.
The heat right now is so different back then... It burns the skin and it's so humid now...
I'm going to be very interested to see how low we go when the next la nina is a few months old. Then there's the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal one, and volcanoes to factor in etc. Lets all watch it like hawks.
Before I started working in the climate space when I thought it was still worthwhile to try to get mega-rich, I used to trade forex. The forex markets and the climate are both non-linear systems and the transferable lesson here is I think that there is no point trying to extrapolate from one data point (2023), which is almost what you said, @Adam. Like Dessler says, we just have to hope the temperature comes back down a bit and that we haven't broken the climate. Like Prof Michael Mann says, it's a minefield. If we've tripped one of the tipping points, it could be an acceleration, but hopefully what happens now is that global temperature stays at this level, bouncing around a bit for the next ten years before another surge comes to scare us all.
Once intrestrates drop, buy rentals and get solar installed
Ever since i know, its getting warmer & warmer year by year. The winters are not chilly anymore. Even the transition season , the onset of winter is not like early days.
Methane freed up due to permafrost melting, drought induced wildfires. I’m sure those would contribute an accelerating effect.
There are no long patterns to today’s weather / climate.
There is no climate crisis. That’s what the IPCC report says.
Could it be that we are in the curve of the Mahlman hockey stick graph? And from here on out all we can expect is rapid warming with a few dips here and there.
Whaaat? Maybe is a very satisfying answer! In fact, it leaves one of the best tastes in my mouth. Much better than any confident proclamation.
We can stop the heating if we stop the emissions, if we don’t trigger uncontrollable processes that further amplify heating…the science on feedback loops is nascent.
I think we've already done that. If polar warming is progressing with the atmosphere as it is, we'd have to reduce what's already in the atmosphere before we could slow the accelerating rate of change.
Countries should not subsidize air travel
Today at Malaysia I noticed that low air pressure that form near South China Sea more frequent than before which result to exteme scorching heat and heavy thunderstrom at Sarawak,Sabah and Kalimantan at Borneo Island.
I am no expert, but in electronics when transistors heat up there comes a point when thermal runaway occurs, and the transistor fails.
Adam is rockin that Roddy McDowell look.
Loving you explaining details on these topics and not selling product. I am a huge fan too on learning about climate change. Im just getting starting on my YT channel about these stuff as well..
The guy writing about this since the 70's says it is also the anthropogenic effect of cooling the earth that was polluting earth from the air that is stopped partly because of regulations.
Brings to mind the global dimming from WWII and postwar construction offset global warming from manmade GHGs, for a while.
When he says "now" he mean "when i started to know this" this is common knowledge 😂
If all 8 billion people on Earth held their breathe for 2 minutes we would see a huge difference instantly. 😅
Haha.. No.
Dude the 2 minutes we all hold our breath we wld have produced over 200 times carbon than we breathe due to fossil fuels. You're not presenting a good idea
Short answer: Yes
This hot host is the reason global warming is speeding up
How de we know we arent in a current warm period? I was educated to believe we are still recovering from an ice age.
Our planet is still in an ice age called the Quaternary Period because there is pack ice in both polar regions year round. We're in an interglacial period called the Holocene Epoch, but it's still an ice age.
The last few glacial periods in the Pleistocene were synchronous with the 105,000 year precession cycle. They're in a cooling phase right now yet we are not in a global cooling trend due anthropogenic warming; the current rapid increase in CO2 is manmade.
The Earth doesn't have any "standard" average temperature that it automatically returns to after a colder or warmer period, so the phrase "recovering from an ice age" is meaningless.
Global changes of temperature are caused by changes of the Earth's *_energy imbalance,_* that is, changes in the incoming and outgoing energy that alters the *_net_* gain or loss of energy, usually measured in watts per square metre of the Earth's surface.
In recent years, the energy imbalance has been at least +1 watt/m² globally. That may not sound like much, but it represents 510,000,000,000,000 watts over the entire world, enough for a complete meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet within 60 years, *_if_* all that surplus energy was absorbed by Greenland rather than also warming the rest of the climate system, mainly the oceans.
No but they can omit any findings. But it's something that isn't being widely discussed.
I am from Uzbekistan and now we are experiencing 50+°C , the craziest,
At this point I’d want a flash flood or a cold front to occur where I’m at cuz all this heat with no clouds and rain is driving me crazy
It's summertime of course it's going to start heating up.
Summer are heating up. Winters are heating up.
Do you know why globally Summers are slightly warmer than Winter? Is Earth closer to the sun then? Springs heating up. Autumns heating up. Nights heating up. Seems to me it would suffice to say the Earth is warming.
It‘s not summer, it‘s spring…
…it‘s April, of course people are goona be foolish!
Yay, Adam posted 🎉
Yay VeganWellnessTribe commented!
@@ClimateAdam you just made my day! 🙏
Hi Adam. It is important to look at warming, while also looking at human activity.
Humans have burned 50% of all FF since 1992. The implication is that we need to look at recent warming. Also GDP overlays C02.. And we consume an extra 2.6% per year..
Climate science, isolated from exsmining these areas is only partial..
New research shows that trees become less efficient in expelling oxygen with heat.
I was wondering, who was your hairstylist?
I am curious if undocumented methane emissions from methane leakage is a factor.
methane is an absolutely crucial factor in the amount of warming we get, but concentrations (which can be measured directly) wouldn't explain an acceleration
Our rate of change is even faster than the Dinosaur extinction.
Moral of the story: use more hairspray?
Nice info. First time I heard about theories about acceleration. There are similarities to some tipping points.
so glad you found the vid valuable - thanks so much for watching and for your generosity!
hey adam! Great video! I noticed you didn't talk about the effect of lower albedo in the northern hemisphere due to snow cover and ice sheets loss. Do you think it could aslo accelerate global warming?
He's covered that on several videos, the one with rating the climate solutions has a exercept on the methods proposed for raising albeldo if I recall correctly
definitely the albedo effect boosts warming, but I haven't come across work suggesting this boost should speed up over time. by the way this is a topic I discussed in a previous vid:
ua-cam.com/video/NtXg-6QlBxc/v-deo.html
FACTS THAT NOBODY THINKS ABOUT; 1) The earth is expanding meaning it's getting closer to the sun. 2) Anything that is not lighter than air leaves the atmosphere and goes out into deep space, almost all air pollution. PROOF COMMON SENSE: The earth is in space, so if you stand at the bottom of a mountain and start to climb, you immediately start ascending into space. The temperature will slowly decrease, and the air eventually will become sparse, meaning a gradual transition not an abrupt one. Gravity does not hold air to the earth, the earth creates fresh air every day, if we cut down enough trees we die, ice melting is helping us live longer, but eventually fire from the sky will consume us, the irony.
What "heat records" is he referring to?? Is the data on these "heat records" credible? Is the data from independent peer reviewed sources??
Also reliable world temperatures information has only existed for about 35 years. So a "heat record" really is saying the hottest in the past 35 years. Assuming that in the past 500 years or 10,000 years that there have not been not just one year hotter than 2023 but many hotter years is total ignorance! The bottom line is this- The hottest year in just 35 years is not and can not demonstrate a climate trend.
the heat records I show are an average of multiple sources, including NASA, NOAA, UK Met Office, and the Japanese Meteorological Agency. Each group uses independent, published methods to synthesise the available data.
I think it's kinda interesting you group hansen and hausfather together considering their disagreements on acceleration and 1.5 as a viable target
👌🙏
Thank You!
Yes, too early to say for sure, but the sea surface temperatures and Antarctic sea ice loss data are scaring the s**t out of anyone who has the faintest clue what they are looking at when they see the graphs. It's truly terrifying what is happening. In fact, so much so that I recently resigned from my post as a sustainability professor and am now in the process of 'lifeboat building' to ensure that my family and I have the best chance possible of surviving the challenges to come. I do hope I'm wrong, and still hold out hope that what we are witnessing is anomalous, but frankly, I've seen enough to stir me into making these radical life changes. I would recommend to others to consider doing the same if their circumstances allow it.
Thank you for this honest, accurate and frank video.
Not mentioned in the video was a metric called Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI).
EEI in the 2020s is about +2 watts per square meter. EEI varies from year to year, up some years, and down some years, so it's good to take a decade long average. For now, about 90% of the excess heat goes into making the top 800 meters of the ocean warmer. Back during the first 10 years of the 21st Century, the years 2001 through 2010, EEI averaged less than +1 watt per square meter. As such, one can slightly understate current warming of Earth by saying that Earth is now in the 2020s warming about twice as fast as 20 years ago.
Unless 21st Century EEI data are found to be substantially in error, continued accelerated heat gain by Earth is to be expected.
May I ask what your biggest concern is? Crop failure? Political instability? I'd certainly appreciate any insights you can offer. Thanks
@@lukegardner6917 All of the different aspects of overshoot are concerning; climate change, soil degradation, collapse of insect numbers, collapse of fish stocks, severe pollution of land sea and air, poor management of fresh water, habitat loss, mass extinction of wild species, increasing pandemic vulnerability, worrying population projections, proliferation of PFAs and micro-plastics, decreasing mineral and fertiliser availability, the persistence of new bird flu strains and their devastating effect on the poultry industry etc. But for me, the most immediate concern is our collective 306 trillion dollars of global debt (most of which was used to bail us out of the 2007 crash and Covid lockdowns). The repayment of this debt is predicated upon future economic growth, but when the realisation dawns that this debt will never be repaid, the whole house of cards will come tumbling down. The markets are already getting twitchy.
I'd advise subscribing to Nate Hagens' podcasts (The Great Simplification) if you're not already. He's a very rational observer and worth listening to. He's the one person who seems to have been able to pull together all of the separate threads. Be warned; his conclusions are somewhat troubling, but he'll certainly confer clarity on our predicament.
@@lukegardner6917 , the Northern Hemisphere has been shifting from an almost completely wind belt driven agricultural climate to a newer climate that is less wind belt driven than before, and more monsoonal than before, as might be expected with lessened temperature difference between the Arctic Circle and the Tropic of Cancer. Also, the ITCZ, the heat equator of Earth's lower troposphere, has shifted much further north than its old position some 500 years ago near and perhaps very slightly further south of Earth's geographical Equator. Not surprisingly, Earth's Northern Hemisphere has heated more than the Southern Hemisphere in a time of global warming, since the Northern Hemisphere by far has a majority of Earth's land surface. Accordingly, the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) has shifted northward into the now warmer of the two hemispheres. Agricultural disruptions happened anyway sometimes even in the old almost completely wind belt driven climate system. The big problem is a new problem that the shift in rain patterns will much more longer lasting than just 3 or so years that historically resulted from an unusually severe instance of volcanism. Many formerly abundant agriculturally regions will no longer be worth farming, while a few regions will newly open up to commercial scale agriculture. Much of the net loss has to do with the increasingly rapid loss of river delta land to the rising sea. In the 2040s, documentable losses in some rice growing regions will become appearant in some tropical deltas due to becoming too hot for humans to plant rice during one or more planting season, even though now in the 2020s this problem occurs less than 1% of the time in tropical river delta regions.
The net loss to agriculture will of course sometimes result in regional wars whenever food gets too expensive, therefore making farmland sufficiently lucrative for war goal purposes. When farmland gets sufficiently lucrative, a farm war can break out, much akin to the oil wars that happened around the time of the turn of the 20th Century to the 21st Century. In other words, farm country is in the 21st Century becoming for war goal purposes what oil country had been in the first 2/3 of the 20th Century.
One can predict a trend of armies in a war often taking orders from AI (artificial intelligence) generals, as well as a trend of increased use of semi-autonomous computer-controlled war robots on land and semi-autonomous computer-controlled warships at sea. When conquering new territory, a software trend might develop of eliminating all humans from some geographically limited agricultural area, in order for humans from one's own side to then be fully able to farm the conquered farmland instead. Of course, in case of a too easy to make computer programming error in which geographical limits are mistakenly forgotten about, all humans would then at some future time become targets of some set of war robots. Robots taking over, long a frequent theme of science fiction writers, will thus become an increasingly possible outcome of a future computer programming error. Even if sufficient computer programming care is taken, a computer chip manufacturing defect, as well as an ill-timed "gamma ray event" resulting in a truly rare type of computer program glitch, could have a similar outcome, despite correct computer programming.
In the next 20 years, there is little to worry about on a world scale from global warming. Beyond a 20-year time frame though, the problems I mentioned in the above paragraphs collectively can too easily result in one or more world scale disasters, rather than merely regional disasters.
What is your opinion on such things?
Is it no so that the meandering Jet stream ( = more meandering than before?) keeps heat domes in place for weeks and there, it gives the impression, it's all speeding up ?? On another place, the Jet Stream keeps cold air and low pressure zones in place ,like now in NW Europe, where it's cooler than usual. If this continues here, it's almost like a year without real summer. I also wonder if it's not so that if wide areas are much cooler, by necessity, other areas must be warmer. The incoming summer heat can't disappear...??
It's like Donald Rumsfeld said, "The unknown unknown is a mofo."
well said !!!
In support of science communication!
Here in Philippines it's 53°c as of now lol
Yeah - sure
There are some physics involved related to available energy. Given that warming is occurring, energy transfer will follow a bell curve. That means that there will be a period in which warming will increase at an increasing rate. It is not necessarily due to any specific change in conditions. That said, activity can have a minor effect on it.
It’s locked in. Even if we went net zero tomorrow, CO2 stays in the atmosphere for a century.
do check out my vid on what happens when we stop emitting:
ua-cam.com/video/Q3Gol-EK1uE/v-deo.html
for sure we can't (easily) undo the changes we've already seen. but we still have worlds' of choice when it comes to what future we live in.
Thanks for the reply and associated optimism, however our choice for the future seems to be ‘how do we want to ride the impending societal and ecological c0llapse?’ As opposed to ‘can we avoid the c0llapse?’.
I suggest Ext1nction Rebelli0n. All the current p0litical parties are owned by the el1tes and have proven already that they aren’t planning on making meaningful changes (all of the COPs, Paris agreement, etc)@@ClimateAdam
I'm sure I'm not saying anything climate scientists haven't already thought of but do the models include CO² released from the ever increasing forest fires and humidity increase due to the constantly warming seas?
absolutely increased humidity is taken into account - this is what's known as the "water vapour feedback" and is a very important component of estimating how sensitive the world is to CO2. as for CO2 from forest fires, I'm not sure the extent to which this is taken into account in our projections for the future, but certainly it's a question that climate scientists are working to address.
Climate change & extinction of life.
ITS TO LATE!
Water weight displacement has a tremendous affect on continental positions.
As The ice melts the location of the water changes and applies pressure on different regions around the world causing subduction zones to accelerate advancing the movement of geographical regions.
As the tundra warms up it is releasing 2X more carbon into our atmosphere than what currently exists. the rate of carbon release increases as the tundra warms up while the increased carbon levels speed up the tundra thaw rate advancing the ice melt progression Speed.
Alignment with solar entities also affect the push and pull affect on the planet also contributing to regional movements of land mass.
Over this next 10 years you will see mass movement of continents around the world as the ice in the north and south melt while displacing the weight through water distribution.
The weight of the ice won’t be there anymore causing the land mass to rise and the water will relocate to the equator adding weight affecting the shape of the earth resulting in extensive land mass movement.
Atmospheric pressure will also be a contributing factor as there will be more water evaporation and condensation with precipitation all over the earth.
The earth crust is floating and being recycled over time.
Spring and autumn are much shorter seasons compared to a decade ago.
2027-2034 are going to be a period of time where mass effect on planetary events/climate change will dramatically disrupt global agriculture.
Add into the equation the unpredictable forest fires, the ongoing wars igniting oil fires and the possible use of nuclear weapons while Factoring in the radiation we are currently subjecting our atmosphere to with cell phone towers, wifi routers, and 5-6G satellites. it seems futile combating the inevitable.
As the ice melts from the north and south the water displacement around earth will redistribute weight on tectonic plates all over the world.
This will accelerate the movement of subduction zones causing massive earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and continental shifts.
The extra water will lead to excessive rain/storms causing landslides and flooding everywhere advancing the severity of the temperatures, wind speeds, humidity and electrical activity.
The Hudson Bay will eventually rupture the North American continent from the Hudson Bay to the Mississippi all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.
The subduction zone’s on the west coast will slide under the continent.
Mount Saint Helens and Yellowstone super volcano will erupt.
We are already seeing this in process with earthquakes, flooding and volcanoes most recently in Japan, Russia, Italy, Iceland, Hawaii, China, east central North America and India.
It’s recommended to be 500km away from oceans, 500ft above sea levels, 500km away from subduction zones and 500 km west of any volcanic zones.
These will be the safest places but you will still have to figure out how you are going to sustain yourself in the recommended area’s.
Global mass migration is inevitable. Billion’s or people and animals will perish and food shortages will be overwhelming. Diseases will be unprecedented.
In addition consider what’s going to happen to all the nuclear power plants, weapons and waste with mass depopulation.
Sadly Tibet, New Zealand and Antarctica are probably going to be the best places to be.
Earth probably won’t be inhabitable for the next 30k years.
Greed, pursuit of power, ego and selfishness is the downfall of humanity as we enter the extinction of life on earth.
Fun fact- about 2 years ago it was the first year when ships have to use fuel without suplhur and because of that thwre is no poluttion of SO2 and dust which reflect the radiation fron the Sun. Its look like we clean up the air and there is a collaterall damage because of that:)
Why not play it safe for the planet, and plan for the worst. In that case, if climate change is not that extreme, we all benefit. If it plays out at it's worst, we did all we could.
I am skeptic of those who readily accept the worst forecasts just as much as those who dismiss them without giving them some thought. Hopefully we will soon get a clearer picture of the effect of aerosols and anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic GHG. In any case I would play safe and act quickly on the assumption that things can go worse than expected.
it is not a forecast. It is a projection of a trahectory given certain conditions. There is a significant difference
We will find out by the end of this year. +1.8 above pre-industrial temperatures means game over. Only the climate models predicting the highest temperature rise is correct.
People never let good news get in the way of a bad fantasy.
If you're trying to reduce the consequences of any bad outcomes, you have to consider measures against a worst-case scenario, even if it seems unlikely to happen.
Once a low-probability/high impact event happens, it's too late to go back and revise your preparations.
That's why you have to pay for an insurance contract before the fire/theft/etc occurs, not afterwards.
Makes sense. Likely a reinforcing feedback loop for heat to cause inertia.
No, no it is not.
¡Gracias!
thanks so much!
Ah yes. Temp is hitting 44 (105) when it used to be 34 -35 max in this month. It's Bad tbh
It's not speeding up in northwest Pennsylvania woke up this morning June 11th to 49 degrees at 7am
global warming is about the average warming of the entire globe. it doesn't mean every single place at every single time is hotter than average.
Methane release accelerating?
The graph shown quite conveniently starts in 1970 after a period of global cooling that lasted from the 1940's to 1970's. The y-axis is also extremely exaggerated to accentuate temperature increases over this limited period. A plot over the past two millennia would be more appropriate. The 1930's had higher temperatures and heat waves in the US than what has been witnessed most recently.
I discuss long term temperature patterns in many videos on my channel - e.g. ua-cam.com/video/oa0ZHAcPHew/v-deo.html
that's not relevant to this conversation, which is specifically about whether warming is *currently* accelerating (that's actually the reason I start the graph in 1970 - because there absolutely was an acceleration then, for similar reasons to the reasons scientists expect there could now be one).
@@ClimateAdam A lot of the information I have reviewed would suggest it (longer time horizons) is relevant and that what we are currently experiencing is within natural variability of the climate over longer periods.
Thanks for the response, I'll check out your site.
Reading the recent Hansen paper, he shows that the warming is disproportionately at the latitudes that have been most effected the reduction in aerosols from shipping.
So the mechanics have not changed. The problem with the models is that they underestimated the dimming from aerosols. That meant to make the models match reality, they underestimated forcing from CO2.
So now the aerosols are going away, the warming is faster than the models.
Read his latest paper for more detail.
Not even 15 seconds into the vid and you've already lied 3 times. Bye.
The only way I can think of to measure acceleration is through average temperatures increases over time, so...
What was the average temperature increase year to year for the earlier decades?
What was the average temperature increase year to year for the last 14 years?
If those averages are similar, we probably aren't seeing a huge amount of acceleration.
Ont the other hand if those averages are quite different, and the last 14 years show a serious up tick then we must be seeing acceleration by something.
The definition of climate as opposed to just weather is taken as 30 years. So you would need to show that the 30 year average is accelerating. The problem is that warm eras look like ours and there is nothing very extraordinary about our current temperatures. Phrases like "hottest ever" usually apply to the last 150 years of measurements or to spurious comparisons with pre-1850 proxies that are very different types of data.