Debunking Canadian Solar Stock - A STRONG BUY! (NASDAQ: CSIQ)
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- Опубліковано 23 жов 2023
- My passion is to look for low risk high reward investment opportunities. I apply my accounting skills and investing experience in order to find interesting investment ideas that offer the possibility to lead me towards my financial goals.
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Really good due diligence, Sven. I love stock reviews like this where you focus on risks when everyone else superficially gives a BUY rating and that’s it
Good old Sven is back!
:-)
Exactly my opinion as well. Quality stuff like that is why I joined the chanel!
You had me at “No dividend”.
:-) show me the money!
HI Sven, great review. Always love an alternative perspective and finding valuable information. As a share holder of CSIQ, I didn't know about the take private moment. Something to consider and look into.
Sven Congrats for hitting this spot on and in detail! Always remember that if something is too good to be true, usually it IS too good to actually be true
Professor sven you know how the game is played I've watched so many of your educational videos and no one on you tube comes close
It's awesome you covered this company. I have had it on my watchlist for some time but never invested in it. There has been that thing I could pin point that was making me hesitate and I'm glad you brought clarity.
I have been reading about CSIQ in the past 2 weeks, but still didn't learn as much as I did from this video! Thank you, Sven!
Maybe the risc of being taken private is smaller now, since Lauren Templeton is a member of the board since 2020?
Great forensic analysis. Thank you, Dr. Carlin.
I have also suggested it on the platform. Happy you choose to analyze it
Thanks for the video Sven!
Always putting a different angle on this channel, which is great!
Really like this type of video my favorite one of your videos was the one RH. Thanks for your videos
excellent ! based on the revenue/income/cash flow history and analyst forecast this one looks great. I was wondering why, with such great history the stock was not raising earlier instead of remaining flat (or cyclical). You just gave an interesting answer : look behind the figures, dig deeper in the annual report and do your due diligence !
Thanks Sven. That was an excellent “Beyond the numbers” analysis!
Excellent review Sven. You brought up some excellent points that could be detrimental to investors.
Great video! How about your old favourite Scatec Solar in compare? Seems cheap as well.
Love this video! I had this on my shortlist but I felt like I was missing something why people have no trust in this company so I was planning to look deeper in this myself. Feel like you covered quite a lot of ground already.
What do you think about the more reputable solar stocks like ENPH? Are they getting into interesting territory for you or do you want more clarity on earnings and a lower price first?
You are the best in your field! Big thank you!
Great review! What are your thoughts on Enphase?
Hi Sven. Could you have a look on Latin America commodity stocks? Brazilian Petrobras ($PBR & $PBR.A) and Colombian Ecopetrol ($EC) seem to be extremely undervalued. PE ratio around 3 with 20% dividend.
Great video Sven! Thank you! Can you do an airline please? LUV or DAL or JBLU?
Loved your take and evaluation- Classic Sven at his best
Risk: What happens when governments stop subsidizing solar? Will consumers (corporate and residential) still find value in the investment?
Only depends on the price of the oil.
Then China wins.
Oil is still subsidized, $8T worldwide. Of course solar hasn't captured government, so the risk is still there.
OTOH, commercial solar is profitable now (utility scale).
Very good review, thanks !
Thank you for the insight. Great job
Sven Carlin, master investor...AND THE KING OF CAPSLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nice look, thanks.
Good day Sven, Munger recently advocated for home builders, and Buffett bought a few. I think a video on the sector would be interesting? :-) Personally, TOL is my top pick in that sector. Would love to hear your thoughts on buying home builders now, especially with lumber prices down.
I'm passing on CSIQ because not enough value given back to shareholders, and a low ROIC. Growth is nice though.
Thank you very much Dr. Carlin💖
11:30 it sounds like a classic money laundry - Latin American briefcase company where the family is avoiding government regulations extracting all to US, Panama or Bahamas bank account.
we don't know, but...
Hello Sven
What do you use to do your videos?
What do you think about CSIQ vs. ENPH? I feel like the latter has more brand recognition
When it comes to analysis of businesses, Sven you are the goat
Good job. Thank you.
They also have high positive cash flow from Financing which is bad right?
can you improve your echo chamber audio?
It’s totally fine Sven.
@@MAchannel2024it’s not fine Sven.
Amazing channel though !!! Thank you so much.
Value and education at its finest. Cheers!
thanks!
have you looked at enphase? also in the solar space and cheap, but a much better company
Great! Thank you!
Glad you liked it!
hmm ty.
I own some very cheap oil stocks. But canadian solar, it is the best risk reward buy i have ever seen. Sure has risks. Biggest one is the china relation to western world. 10-100 bagger potential. Only in the last 5 years did solar become competitive with coal energy.
Solar with different battery solutions or hydrogen generation will be the key to going to net zero for most of the worlds population, during the next 50 years. Everything south of the middle line in europe and US. Includes most of asia, afrika and south america. No divident because the are investing everything in growth.
Great video and analysis like always, thanks!
Much appreciated!
Great analysis!!
Is this on Toronto exchange?
Great insight!💡
Great video Sven. We love you
what about solar edge?
Very important to point out stuff like this, good work
Glad you think so!
Yeah Balance Sheet looks very impressive with BV/MC= 1.5, but gosh operating margins at 5% this looks more like a retailer, looked at some of the competitors all of them have margins in low single digits. Need to do a deeper dive mabe there is some potential there.
I was considering buying into this business, but to be honest i just felt there was something off about it. Glad to know my suspicions were valid
What suspicion is valid?
@@erikm9768shady management.
I owned CSIQ off and on for a lot of years, trading a range. I got out at 28 in 2020, and I don't think I'll get back in. I held through Qu's buyout offer, which hung around in unrejected limbo for far too long, holding the stock price down during a period when the sector was booming.
I know their product well, and the company's financials seem ever solid on the back of real sales revenue, but there was fishy action from management, which is obviously dominated by one man, throughout.
As you know the product: How does it compare to their competitors? Lets say I want some solar on my roof, why would I go with their panels instead of others?
Very nice video !!!
They are pretty Asset heavy and have meager Returns on capital
The big issue with Solar is that we are likely to be in a completely different environment to the last 30 years. Higher interest rates and higher commodity prices. Solar has very low return on energy invested. It uses a vast amount of cheap coal power in China to produce these panels. In a fairly dark place like Northern Europe or Canada the amount of energy produced is actually lower than the amount used to initially create the panels with all the mining and fabrication. Things can change dramatically with these long cycles.
davita dvr stock ? what do u think Sven? seen on everything money
Great points
What u think about SHLS
Hi Sven, thank you for taking the time to analyze this company. Before watching your video I stopped and took a quick look at the company. I noticed that the net profit is only 5 - 6% ... Isn't this very low ?
That depends on the business, but yes, thin margins here, thus volatile!
How about daqo new energy?
If you look at the capital management of the company it is looking to be trending in a very positive direction that is shareholder friendly. IPOing the Chinese business and reinvesting that capital in American manufacturing plants will reduce the company's exposure to tariff risks. Additionally, as a company that is in the top 5 globally but still significantly smaller in scale than competitors in China, I think it makes sense to reinvest in growth rather than distribute capital to shareholders.
The only real concern would be the risk of takeover at lower prices. From a Mohnish Pabrai perspective, it definitely has the asymmetry of massive upside potential with little downside risk and so then it becomes a question of position sizing.
I think if you look at the IPO of the CSI subsidiary and how that's the largest driver of the business which CSIQ owners now only own 62% of, it makes sense how "cheap" this stock appears. If we take away the 38% of ownership in that subsidiary that we IPO'd, take away the 20% of ownership in Recurrent Energy we are giving to Blackrock to fund growth, then assume 9% growth in revenues (after a reversion to the mean given an impending downturn) at 6% FCF margins (has been achieved previously and is consistent with median EBIT margins), the company is worth about $35/share given current assets and total liabilities with 69 mil shares outstanding. Definitely a margin of safety here but this one is a complicated analysis for sure. No wonder the market over reaction, especially with China involved. Looks like they're near achieving immunity from the tariffs though using the IPO funds to finance localized manufacturing.
Gotta hand it to management on this one. Both equity financing achievements have been accretive to share holders rather than dilutive. Together they value the company at $57/share. Which is what my DCF model assumes prior to "dilution" and yet the investing public has only valued them at 55$ and that was 3 years ago.
thanks for sharing!
very good analysis!
Thanks!
excellent learning
Many thanks
Thanks for covering 🙏
:-)
My Blackrock Oil and Gas converted into a Renewables fund when oil was at a bottom and renewables at a peak (ie worst possible "exchange"rate). Since then, O&G stocks up 3x+ and renewables in the gutter. BR cost me a fortune.....Renewables have been a terrible investment.
Is it better then Enphase?
I Saw this stock anda i run away.. i think like You!! Excellent analysis
It's always a great content from Sven Carlin. I even followed his page on Facebook.., easier to connect with him
Sven, please cover $DQ stock. Would love to hear your point of view. Very interesting valuation. Thanks!
same, check DQ its CISQ brother but better valuation and insane arbitrage.
"you looked at CISQ, but look at DQ (nyse) daqo new energy, it is the same story 11bn $ mkt cap on shanghai listed shares (which are owned 75% by DQ NYSE) yet 1.8bn $ mkt cap nyse listing for DQ. They are buying back a lot of shares, shares should drop from 75 mn to 67 in 3 months/ next quarter. P/b of 0.4,
!!SVEN it has 3bn $ in cash and equivalents, with quick ratio of 5.6 when mkt cap is 1.8bn $ !!"
Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo Holdings did sell 46% of holdings, why?
What do you think about gurufocus and his valuations?
I don't think about it :-(
I could see massive cuts from governments investing in solar. It’s down 50% but could drop another 50% if revenue drops in the downturn. Could be a good buy if that happens
im bagholding this since $46
Demand of solar panels will depend on the oil barrel price, which will be high in the foreseeable future.
+ $JKS (Jinkosolar) is really similar to Canadiansolar, but has a nice dividend.
I think Jinkosolar would have been a better pick for today’s video. Or compare both. Or say a few words about jinko at least 😢
Well, if you can predict oil, isnt it much easier to make money there :-)
🤔 indeed
Have a look at enphase
Hi Sven, could you make a video about american express with a attractive pe of 14 it might be a good buy. This company is very intersting with wealthy customers and higher swipe fees. Maybe you could analyze where the future growth will come from and if it might lose against visa and mastercard etc
Thanks
thanks!
Do ENPH next :D
what about solar edge? you think they are in a similar situation?
have to check!
very interesting ideas. yes lots of grey in Chinese companies. could be a good timing, though. maybe the Chinese company buys out the US company.
:-))) anything can happen!
As a soon-to-be retiree, keeping my 401k on track after a bumpy 2022 is a high goal. I've read about investors generating up to $250k ROI in this present sinking market; any suggestions for increasing my ROI before retirement would be greatly appreciated.
Yes, you are right. it's been a brisk tailwind for lnvestors in US stocks over the decades but it is still a delicate season now, so I advise you to consider the guidance of a financiaI advisor.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
@@maggysterling33254 Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one.
@@maggysterling33254 Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.
@@maggysterling33254 Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.
dude you are amazing
a lot of money could be made from this, but with the risks here, I wouldn't be touching it.... rather buy BABA
What's up with Rubis? I's down big.
Nothing. Interest rates effect only. Time to buy
Is this generalizable to the whole solar sector?
No bevause there are different businesses with different advantages
Can we do ZIM stock? Shipping stocks seem to be at the bottom of the cycle.
Yes. But Globalization is over for the long while.
value trap
Are you moking Dracula when saying hello fellow investors?😊
Excellent analysis….. not a munger/buffet like stock …. Would not touch it
:-)
Where is Rubis now?
What is happening with Rubis stock? Why the price is going down?
Stock prices go up and down:-) but will update soon!
I feel like even though it is "Canadian Solar" the ties with China are so strong, I am essentually buying a chinese stock. Got burned pretty hard on BABA and Tencent due to geopolitical reasons, so I am watching this one still. Companies wise, I love it. But the risk is forsure there despite the finiancials. And when ever we reenter another large growth period for solar/ Green Energy(prob after all the negative world news and Inflation cools further) we will see them push ESG harder again.
It's always a great content from Dr. Sven Carlin. I even followed his page on Facebook.., easier to connect with him
Solar energy looks really cheap right now. Good companies like SEDG and ENPH are trading at P/E 20. I made a lot on these companies by buying in 2018 and selling in 2021 - looks like it might be time to buy again!
thanks for sharing!
Surprised that you didn't mention 4b of debt on 2b of equity and mostly negative free cash-flows (positive FCF only 2 out of last 7 years)
ok, debt is important. But I think this is in the form of corp bonds years ago at low interest rates to build these power plants. After 5 years, it starts making money, this seems pretty good. No?
All utilities have debts 😂
same, check DQ its CISQ brother but better valuation and insane arbitrage.
"you looked at CISQ, but look at DQ (nyse) daqo new energy, it is the same story 11bn $ mkt cap on shanghai listed shares (which are owned 75% by DQ NYSE) yet 1.8bn $ mkt cap nyse listing for DQ. They are buying back a lot of shares, shares should drop from 75 mn to 67 in 3 months/ next quarter. P/b of 0.4,
!!SVEN it has 3bn $ in cash and equivalents, with quick ratio of 5.6 when mkt cap is 1.8bn $ !!"
7 months later - the share price is 17 ish. Risk of dodginess is far too high with this one.
thanks for sharing!
What about its bigger cousin ENPH?
A relative on the management team? Deal breaker red flag to me. I've seen enough companies with the red flag of the CEO hiring relatives and subsequently tanking the company. The rest of Sven's great due diligence are just more nails in the coffin.
And yeah sort the echo out 😅
Sadly, this looks like a case where its price history is warranting for caution, and this caution is hurting the stock price. It is so cheap, people feel they are missing something and we are caught in a vicious circle.
With PE 4, you are not comfortable owning it?
Amazon dont pay dividend either, I dont really get your point in terms of rewarding shareholders
The PE ratio doesn't mean much with a cyclical, plus here the owner owns it, not minority shareholders.
@@Value-Investing Thanks for taking the time and replying, I do agree on that point since margins flactuates, also the ownership part.
I was just wondering why you critizie them on not paying dividend while they keep growing (like Amazon)
Thanks for your videos I really enjoy them
Specially in Canada, solar will never be profitable unless heavily subsidized.
Not hating, simply stating a fact.
Even then you will only piggyback on nuclear and natural gas - the only sources dense enough to provide reliable energy.
DQ trades at 25 dollars per share and has 52 dollar in cash per share....they are also doing 800 million dollar buyback
same, check DQ its CISQ brother but better valuation and insane arbitrage.
"you looked at CISQ, but look at DQ (nyse) daqo new energy, it is the same story 11bn $ mkt cap on shanghai listed shares (which are owned 75% by DQ NYSE) yet 1.8bn $ mkt cap nyse listing for DQ. They are buying back a lot of shares, shares should drop from 75 mn to 67 in 3 months/ next quarter. P/b of 0.4,
!!SVEN it has 3bn $ in cash and equivalents, with quick ratio of 5.6 when mkt cap is 1.8bn $ !!"
Very similar to Daqo new energy (DQ)
thanks for sharing!
@@Value-Investing Hey sven, check DQ its CISQ brother but better valuation and insane arbitrage.
"you looked at CISQ, but look at DQ (nyse) daqo new energy, it is the same story 11bn $ mkt cap on shanghai listed shares (which are owned 75% by DQ NYSE) yet 1.8bn $ mkt cap nyse listing for DQ. They are buying back a lot of shares, shares should drop from 75 mn to 67 in 3 months/ next quarter. P/b of 0.4,
!!SVEN it has 3bn $ in cash and equivalents, with quick ratio of 5.6 when mkt cap is 1.8bn $ !!"